Ellie Cohen and Point Blue Staff

2017 CA Land Conservation Conference

CA Council of Land Trusts

March 7, 2017

Accelerating Nature-Based Solutions:

Climate-Smart Land Trusts

Reduce impacts of environmental change and develop nature-based

solutions for wildlife and people

Point Blue Conservation Science

• 160+ staff and seasonal

scientists

• Manage over 1 billion

ecological observations

• 2017 budget: $13 million

• Founded in 1965 as Point

Reyes Bird Observatory

January 5, 2017

Global temperatures in February 2016 already touched the 1.5°C limit

Nutrients

NO

Nutrients

Blob overshadowed El Nino; driving drought

>90% of warming in ocean; Heat 200m deep

http://www.nanoos.org/resources/anomalies_workshop/workshop2.php

Long et al Biogeochemical Cycles Feb 2016

Jacox et al . Geophysical Research Letters, July 2016

IUCN- Explaining Ocean Warming Sept 2016

Triple Threat: Warming, acidification & oxygen loss

Ice-free Arctic at 1.5C?

Moftakhari e al Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding. Earth’s Future, 2017; DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000494

Extreme Events

Human Health Impacts

http://www.who.int/globalchange/en/

Nature Impacts

• On track for 5 degrees C

warming this century--

Impending

tipping point

for the future

of life on our

planet

Exceeding 4 of 9

‘planetary boundaries’

• Steffen et al, SCIENCE, Jan 2015, Planetary Boundaries

• Natl Acad. of Sci., Abrupt Climate Change Dec 2013

• Barnosky et al, NATURE June 2012

Image Cheng (Lily) Li.

• Climate change

• Species extinction

• Habitat loss (land-use changes)

• Fertilizers (altered

biogeochemical cycles)

We are totally reliant on nature

www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx

databank.worldbank.org

•Climate

•Flood

•Disease

•Water quality

•Recreational

•Educational

•Spiritual

•Freshwater, clean air

•Food, fisheries

•Wood, fiber, fuel

Est value= 2x global GNP or

$72 trillion in 2012

Ecosystem Services or Nature’s Benefits

Paris Climate Agreement - Dec. 2015Hold increase in global avg. temp. below 2°C (3.6F);

Goal 1.5°C (2.7F); includes nature-based solutions

Guiot, et al. Science 28 Oct 2016 DOI: 10.1126/science.aah5015

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

www.pointblue.org/parisagreementecosystems

…importance of ensuring

integrity of all ecosystems,

including oceans….

…take action to conserve

sinks of greenhouse gases…

…Build resilience through

sustainable management of

natural resources.

Nature-Based Solutions- New Policies

Louis Blumberg, The Nature Conservancy

• Federal Agencies 2015:

include natural

infrastructure &

ecosystem services in

plans

• CA 2016--SB 379 (Jackson)

and AB 1482 (Gordon)-

requires climate adaptation

planning for state agencies,

counties, cities including

natural infrastructure

• CA 2016- Climate-smart

agriculture programs

($120m) including Healthy

Soils Initiative

“Source watersheds are now defined as

integral components of CA water infrastructure”Meadows, Streams, Upland Vegetation

Now Eligible For Billions in Public Works $

Landmark CA Law– AB 2480 -- Sept 27 2016

Extension of CA Climate LawSB32 (Pavley)– 40% reduction in GHG

emissions below 1990 levels by 2030

• Now at

440 MMT/yr

• With current

policies

375 MMT/yr

• By 2030

260 MMT/yr

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/27/more-electric-cars-more-solar-power-

expected-as-state-struggles-to-reach-tough-new-climate-standards/

Climate change tool box…

Renewable

Clean Energy

Building Energy

Efficiency

Mass Transit

Vehicle Miles

Traveled

Tara G. Martin, James E. M. Watson. Intact ecosystems provide best defence against climate

change. Nature Climate Change, 2016; 6 (2): 122 DOI:10.1038/nclimate2918

*Nbs = conserving and accelerating nature’s ability to provide ecosystem services

…must include nature-based solutions (NbS*) for

nature’s benefits, including ‘negative emissions’

Water Use

Efficiency

Climate-Smart Conservation Key Principles

1. Focus on future conditions, not past; plan ahead to

reduce risks- anticipate extremes, can’t stop change

2. Design actions in watershed/ecosystem/biosphere

context across multiple scales in time and space

3. Employ flexible, adaptive approaches for timely

response to continual change

4. Prioritize actions for multiple benefits to nature and

people

5. Collaborate & communicate across sectors for

timely, long term solutions

6. Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!

Adapted from: NWF Climate Smart Conservation Adaptation Principles 2011; Draft Principles for CA Resources Agency Adaptation Update 2012; CSIRO’s Climate change impacts on Australia's biodiversity conservation & protected areas, Sept 2012 Update

Protect, restore & accelerate NbS

for multiple benefits

LIFE on EARTHBiosphere

CARBON

HUMAN COMMUNITIES

ecohen@pointblue.org

Spiers et al Ecological Informatics 2016

Duffy et al PNAS May 2016

Atwood, et al. Predators - blue carbon ecosystems.

Nature Climate Change, 2015

Ballard, et al. Biological Conservation 2012

Manage forests for resilience, fire, waterAccelerate NbS: allow severe fire; habitat mosaic

Gabrielle Boisramé, Sally Thompson, Brandon Collins, Scott Stephens. Managed Wildfire Effects on Forest Resilience and Water in the Sierra Nevada.

Ecosystems, 2016; DOI: 10.1007/s10021-016-0048-1 YOSEMITE

Cre

dit: S

cott S

tephens, U

C B

erk

ele

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• Restore natural processes –disturbance regimes (e.g. fire)

• Manage for habitat diversity – early succession & habitat edges

• Protect migration corridors across elevation/precipitation gradients

• Aid climate adaptation by thinning forests (mechanical & fire)

• Avoid mal-adaptation – e.g. high density reforestation following high severity fire

Climate-Smart Forest Management

0

0.1

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0.3

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0.5

0.6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Edge Density within a 1000m radius (Contrast Weighted m/ha)

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Accelerate NbS: (1) Restore 30,000 acres of

mountain meadows; (2) pilot climate-smart meadow

conservation easements

Sierra Meadow Partnership includes:

• Plumas Corporation

• Sierra Foothill Conservancy

• Cal Trout

• Stillwater Sciences

• Point Blue Conservation Science

• The Nature Conservancy

• US Forest Service

• UC Davis Watershed Sciences

• American Rivers

• Trout Unlimited

• Institute for Bird Populations

• Many others

Store carbon, recharge aquifers, sustain wildlife,

other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue - unpublished

What might climate-smart easements look like?

Incorporate future

climate to:

• prioritize acquisitions

• develop easement

terms & management

strategies

Feather River Land Trust: projections of climatic

water deficit- runoff & groundwater recharge- to

prioritize potential easement acquisitions; blue

watersheds prioritized to secure greatest water

resources

Yellow= more CWD Blue= less CWD by 2070

The Nature Conservancy

UC Davis

US Forest ServicePoint Blue Conservation Science

Climate-smart easements (p2) • Secure affirmative rights to restore

degraded resources for resilience to

future change

• Provide learning laboratories to test

innovative approaches Example: beaver dam analog, Childs Meadow

Store carbon (30,000 acres = 2 m tons CO2e), recharge aquifers, sustain wildlife, other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue – unpublished

Climate-smart easements (p3)

• Include multi-benefit management plans (for water, carbon,

wildlife, human welfare) to address climate impacts

• Require monitoring to modify plans & enhance long term

management

Restoration

Implemented

Bird richness increases just 3 years post restoration

Yellow Creek in the Feather River

Accelerate NbS: working on 500,000+ acres with ranchers

to enhance CA rangelands for carbon, water, biodiversity & $

http://www.carboncycle.org/marin-carbon-project/

Partner biologists

CompostPrescribed conservation grazing

To permanently protect 30,000 acres of rangelands from development with climate-smart management plans

Working with Land Trusts

Water

Shasta Dam – 4 million acre ftPhoto: US Bureau of Reclamation WRONG

Prescribed conservation

grazing on 40m acres

For every ~10 acres, store another acre foot with a 1% increase in soil organic matter

Rangelands are ~60% of CA – huge potential!

Carbon

Offset ~10% of today’s CA

emissions (440 MMT CO2 or all of CA’s

commercial and residential GHG emissions)

Conservation management

on 40m grazed rangeland

acres

Prescribed grazing can increase CO2e ~.5-1 MT CO2e per acre

Compost amendment ~.5 MT per acre or 18 Tons over 30 years

• 14 Partner Biologists

• > 500 landowners engaged

• 460,745 acres of farm &

ranch land w/ conservation

practices implemented

• $12.1m in Farm Bill funds

for total of $24m leveraged

• 11 counties where poverty

rates exceed state,

national avg.

Rangeland Watershed Initiative to date:

DEVELOP METRICS to SCALE UP:

Rangeland Monitoring Network Data sampling across 17counties

Ecolo

gic

al fu

nction

Soil Dynamic Properties

Water Infiltration

Bulk Density

Organic Soil Carbon

Vegetation

Species composition

Cover

Birds

Abundance

Diversity

http://www.pointblue.org/our-science-and-services/conservation-science/working-

lands/rangeland-monitoring-network/

http://www.tomkatranch.org/soaking-it-in-water-infiltration-research-at-tomkat-ranch/

Handbook of Methods

Online Data Entry Tools

www.pointblue.org/rmn

Lewis et al. 2015,~3 miles over 45 yrs = Marin Co. reduction goals of ~84,000 T CO2e by 2020

Matzek et al. 2015, Seavy et al.2009; Gardali et al. 2006,

Golet et al.2008

Restore Riparian HabitatAccelerate NbS: climate-smart ecological restoration

• Filters out pollutants

• Recharges groundwater

• Captures carbon, slows flooding

• Supports birds, fish, other

wildlife

• Protects soil

• Increases property values,

recreation

Apply the 10% Rule Every Day

T = Test &

E = Experiment

N = Now

Ok be 80% performer on agency requirements!!

Innovate tidal marsh restoration Accelerate NbS: Test mound design

Sonoma Baylands, San Pablo Bay

Our Coast Our Future- SLR, storm surge online toolAccelerate NbS: catalyze adaptation action including natural infrastructure

Partners:• USGS

• NOAA

• POINT BLUE

• NPS

CA Coastline

www.pointblue.org/ocof

Google

prioritize actions for a range of future scenarios

Urban Green Infrastructure – resilience, benefits

Accelerate NbS: rain gardens, permeable surfaces, green alleys

Trust for Public Land

Natural

Resource

Managers

Scientists

Government

& Regulators

Human

Communities

20th century silo mindset: it’s all about me!

21st century climate-smart mindset:

We are all in this together!

https://ecoamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/eA-Lets-Talk-Communities-and-Climate-WEB.pdf

Conduct Scenario Planning

Bring together

diverse

stakeholders to

address climate

change in an

uncertain future

Scenario Planning

See also: http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-

planning/index_html

Moore, Sara S.; E. Seavy, Nathaniel; Gerhart, Matt. Scenario Planning for Climate

Change Adaptation—A Guidance for Resource Managers. Point Blue

Conservation Science & California Coastal Conservancy 2013.

No more ‘business as usual’

- Reverse greenhouse gas

emissions,

- Transition to clean, efficient

and equitable energy and

water-use economy, and,

- Make nature-based, multi-

benefit approaches an equal

priority-- required for success.

“We have to wake up to

the fierce urgency of the

now”Jim Yong Kim on Climate ChangePresident, The World Bank

What do we need to do?

1. Not just protect but actively manage to accelerate

NbS including climate-smart easement strategies

2.Prioritize actions for multiple benefits to nature and

people in watershed/ecosystem context

3.Decide what we aren’t going to do

4.Engage local communities & communicate across

sectors

5.Invest in demonstration projects and scale up with

standardized metrics and regular monitoring

6.Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!

WE HAVE CHOICES

http://blog.savesfbay.org/2013/09/bay-or-river/

What will each of us start doing differently

today?

Be bold, take risks,

innovate and act now to accelerate

nature’s benefits for wildlife & people

Global Carbon Budget 2016: continued low growth in

carbon emissions

http://www.earth-system-science-

data.net/about/news_and_press/2016-11-14_global-carbon-

budget-2016.html

Major Investments in

Nature-based Solutions Pay Off! Water flowing, aquifers replenished and wildlife thriving despite

extensive drought August, 2030

• baylandsgoals.org/science-update-2015/

• mavensnotebook.com/2015/07/29/tidal-marshes-and-

climate-change/ Callaway, 2015

California Coastal Restoration Success!Carbon captured, communities healthier, wildlife increased, and

infrastructure protected despite rising seas Sept 2046

CA Land Trusts Awarded Presidential Medal of Freedom for Climate Leadership

November 2050

Because of our collaborative

climate-smart conservation

actions today, healthy

ecosystems will sustain

thriving wildlife & human

communities well into the

future…

Thank you!

ecohen@pointblue.org

ecohen@pointblue.org

http://www.pointblue.org/

blog/sciencenews

Thank You!Anonymous (2)

11th Hour Fund

Audubon California

Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium

S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation

Bernice Barbour Foundation

Bureau of Reclamation

Bureau of Land Management

California Coastal Conservancy

California Department of Fish and Game

California Department of Water Resources

California Bay Delta Authority

California Landscape Conservation Cooperative

California State Parks

Central Valley Joint Venture

Faucett Catalyst Foundation

Richard Grand Foundation

Land Trusts

Marin Community Foundation

Giles Mead Foundation

Moore Family Foundation

David and Lucile Packard Foundation

National Park Service

National Science Foundation

NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries

Natural Resource Conservation Service

Resources Legacy Fund Foundation

SF State University

San Francisco Bay Joint Venture

Sonoma Land Trust

The Nature Conservancy

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

USDA Forest Service

US Geological Survey

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service

and Point Blue Board, Members and Staff