Sustainable Development: Making change in the face of change

colin greenFlood Hazard Research CentreMiddlesex University Lesvos

Rainwater harvesting

irrigation

We have to live on a fossil planet for the indefinite future

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Every molecule of every chemical element is already here

Doing more with less

• More “what”?• Less “what”?• How?

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We are dealing with systems

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Water management as a problem domain• The nature of the hydrological cycle• The characteristics of water management

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Water management is about coping with variability

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Case study on drought

management plans

Water management is fundamentally about food production

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shocks

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Case study on floods

Water as a management problem

• Allocation: don’t manufacture, share it• Provision

• Capital intensity• Economies of scale

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Aquifers - Europe

https://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Veranstaltungen/workshop_ihme_2013/

ihme1500_g.html;jsessionid=38C6B4C32A90FF4F078263DB70A5C62E.1_cid297?view=render[NeuesFenster]

Water management is always a transboundary problem

How?

• Technology• Governance

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Getting closer to the technological frontier – the free lunches available

agriculture

Wef

hotels

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water use per guest per day

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Castell MalgwynCountry Estate

Hotel

Henllys (oldcourthouse)

PenbontbrenFarm Hotel

Gwydyr Hotel FalcondaleMansion Hotel

Hafod CountryHouse

Neuadd;asGuest House

hotel

before

after

Case study on cotton production

Case study on irrigation efficiencyChina almost 75 percent of the gap between predicted demand

and supply could be closed with measures offeringpayback time of 3 years or less.

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Getting closer to the technological frontier

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deterministic stochastic

Eastern Europe

Asia

Africa

Latin America

North America

Western Europe and Oceania

Determinants of household water usage

• Behaviour• Technology• Demographics and socio-

economics

£46 billion to meet demand-supply gap= £4,600 per person

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London Infrastructure Plan

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1885

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year

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UK wheat tonnes/ha

USA tonnes/ha

How? – pushing out the technological frontier

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Changing what?

• Policy• Behaviour

• Power: what works? How does it work?• The use of power requires rules; what rules?

• Components of power – signal, incentive, compliance

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Economic instruments as power

• Exchange• Voluntary = equal power to each party• Requires potential gain to each party

• Markets• Prices/subsidies

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Caution: in water management, prices are sometimes ineffective in changing behaviour

From vision to action

• Dabo: better tools/techniques• Elena: adoption of more efficient technologies• Ruth: knowledge transfer to push near the technological frontier• Luis: adapt to variability