THE SHEATHED SWORD From Nuclear Brink to No First Use

Author Roundtable2-3 November 2019Bengaluru

Introduction

Nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity. Despite the dangers involved, globalefforts at nuclear abolition, non-proliferation, and arms control have weakened in recentyears. Indeed, nuclear weapons are back at the forefront of international affairs. Two factors are driving this renewed focus on nuclear weapons. The first is the return of greatpower competition. The other is the emergence of new technological developments likehypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, anti-satellite systems, and cyber capabilities - all ofwhich threaten to upend our traditional assumptions about deterrence. To tackle this seemingly unsolvable problem, we propose a Global No First Use (GNFU)agreement for nuclear weapons. A GNFU pact would reduce nuclear fears and slow downhorizontal and vertical proliferation of nuclear arms. It would also enable states to maintaintheir nuclear arsenals at lower levels of alert and reduce the dangers from miscalculation andaccidents. To examine the feasibility of a GNFU agreement, we have assembled a panel of outstandingthinkers (see page 5) to contribute to an anthology titled “The Sheathed Sword: From NuclearBrink to No First Use” that will be published in 2020 Our meeting on November 2-3 (see page 6 for list of attendees) is intended to discuss anddebate the emerging issues around nuclear weapons and the challenges facing both NFUpolicies and a GNFU agreement.

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About Us

The Takshashila Institution is an independent centre for research and education in publicpolicy. It is a non-partisan, non-profit organisation that advocates the values of freedom,openness, tolerance, pluralism and responsible citizenship. It seeks to transform India throughbetter public policies, bridging the governance gap by developing better public servants, civilsociety leaders, professionals and informed citizens. Takshashila creates change by connecting good people to good ideas and good networks. Itproduces independent policy research in a number of areas of governance, it grooms civicleaders through its online education programmes and engages in public discourse through itspublications and digital media.

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1 November - 7 pmDinner at Roomali, Church Street

Schedule - 2 November 2019

9:30 am to 10 am: Registration and Networking 10 am to 10:05 amIntroducing The Takshashila Institution by Pranay Kotasthane 10:05 am to 10:15 amRound of Introductions 10:15 am to 10:30 am Opening remarks by Lt General Prakash Menon 10:30 am to 10:45 amIntroductory remarks (recorded) by Ambassador Shivshankar Menon 10:45 am to 11:30 amNuclear Coercion: New Insights From Academic Scholarship by Walter C Ladwig III 11:30 am to 11:45 am: Coffee Break 11:45 am to 12:30 pmHow Nuclear Weapons and New Technologies are Shaping the Global Security Environment by RajeshBasrur 12:30 pm to 1:15 pmNo First Use of Nuclear Weapons: Feasible & Desirable, Nationally & Globally by Manpreet Sethi 1:15 pm to 2:15 pm: Lunch 2:15 pm to 3 pmMotivations For and Against NFU by Rajesh Rajagopalan 3 pm to 3:45 pmGlobal No First Use — Impossible, Desirable, Necessary? by Olivier de France 3:45 pm to 4:15 pm: Coffee Break 4:15 pm to 5 pmPrevention and the Nuclear Doctrine of Russia by Petr Topychkanov 7 pm onwardsDinner at Anupam's Coast to Coast, Church Street

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Schedule - 3 November 2019 9 am to 9:30 am: Coffee and Networking 9:30 am to 10:15 amChina and NFU by Zhong Ai 10:15 am to 11:00 amNo First Use Policy of a New Nuclear Weapons State: The Case of North Korea by Jina Kim 11 am to 11:15 am: Coffee Break 11:15 am to 1 pmOpen house discussion on key topics identified during the previous sessions 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm: Lunch 2:00 pm to 2:45 pmOpen house discussions on prospects of a Global No First Use (GNFU) agreement 2:45 pm to 3 pmClosing remarks by Lt General Prakash Menon 3 pm to 3:15 pmGroup Photograph

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List of Authors

Ashghar Ali Solanieh

Bruno Tertrais

Colin S. Gray

Damien Cusey

Daryl G. Press

Emily Landau

Feroz Hassan Khan

Hirofumi Tosaki

Jina Kim

Keir A. Lieber

Lora Saalman

Manpreet Sethi

Mustafa Kibaroğlu

Nina Tannenwald

Olivier de France

Owen B.Toon

Petr Topychkanov

Rajesh Basrur

Rajesh Rajagopalan

Sadia Tasleem

Walter C. Ladwig III

Zhong Ai

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Authors Participating in the Roundtable Jina Kim is a Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, specializing in US-North Korea relations and nuclear nonproliferation. She holds a PhD in International Relationsfrom the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and teaches at YonseiGraduate School of International Studies. She is on the Advisory Committee for the BlueHouse National Security Office and US-ROK Combined Forces Command, and she serves thePolicy Review Committee for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. She authored The North KoreanNuclear Weapons Crisis and co-authored Korean Peninsula and Indo-Pacific Power Politicsand many others. Manpreet Sethi is Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi where she headsthe project on nuclear security. She is an expert on the entire range of nuclear issues havingpublished over 80 papers in reputed academic journals. Over the last 18 years she has beenresearching and writing on subjects related to nuclear energy, strategy, non-proliferation,disarmament, arms and export controls and BMD. Sethi is author of books Code of Conductfor Outer Space: Strategy for India (2015), Nuclear Strategy: India’s March towards CredibleDeterrence (2009) and Argentina’s Nuclear Policy (1999); co-author of India's Sentinel (2014)and Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy (2004) and editor of Towards a Nuclear WeaponsFree World (2009), Global Nuclear Challenges (2009) and Nuclear Power: In the Wake ofFukushima (2012). Olivier de France is Research Director at The French Institute for International and StrategicAffairs (IRIS) in Paris, where he runs the European affairs programme. He works on thepolitical and strategic shifts affecting the Old Continent, and on the ideas that underlie them.Prior to joining Iris, he was an analyst with the European Union Institute for Security Studies(EUISS) and with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Educated at CambridgeUniversity in the UK and Ecole Normale Supérieure in France, he teaches political theory atParis VII University, and European geopolitics at the Sorbonne University in Paris. Petr Topychkanov is a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Controland Non-proliferation Programme. Petr works on issues related to nuclear nonproliferation,disarmament, arms control, and impact of new technologies on strategic stability. From 2006to 2017 Petr Topychkanov was a fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center’s NonproliferationProgram. Prior to joining SIPRI in 2018, Petr held the position of Senior Researcher at theCenter for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of WorldEconomy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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Rajesh Basrur is Visiting Professor in the South Asia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam Schoolof International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is also aResearch Associate with the Contemporary South Asian Studies Programme at the OxfordSchool of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford. Previously, he was Professor ofInternational Relations at RSIS and held fellowships at various institutions of higher learning inNorth America, Europe and Asia. His work focuses on South Asian security, global nuclearpolitics, and international relations theory. He has authored five books, including (with KateSullivan de Estrada) Rising India: Status and Power (Routledge, 2017); South Asia’s Cold War(Routledge, 2008) and Minimum Deterrence and India’s Nuclear Security (Stanford UniversityPress, 2006). He has also edited twelve books and journal special issues, including (with AnitMukherjee and T. V. Paul), India-China Maritime Competition: The Security Dilemma at Sea(Routledge, 2019). He has published over 100 papers research and policy papers, mostrecently, “India and China: A Managed Nuclear Rivalry?” Washington Quarterly (October2019). Rajesh Rajagopalan is Professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, NewDelhi. His publications include three books, Nuclear South Asia: Keywords and Concepts [co-authored with Atul Mishra] (Routledge, 2014); Fighting Like A Guerrilla: The Indian Army andCounterinsurgency (Routledge, 2008); and Second Strike: Arguments about Nuclear War inSouth Asia (Penguin/Viking, 2005). His articles (some jointly authored) have appeared in anumber of academic and policy journals such as The Washington Quarterly, ContemporarySecurity Policy, India Review, Contemporary South Asia, Small Wars and Insurgencies, SouthAsia, South Asian Survey, and Strategic Analysis as well as in Indian newspapers such asEconomic Times, The Hindu, Indian Express, Financial Express, and the Hindustan Times. Walter C Ladwig III is an Associate Professor (UK: Senior Lecturer) of International Relationsin the Department of War Studies at King’s College London and an Associate Fellow in AsianSecurity at the Royal United Services Institution (RUSI) in London. His scholarly writings onthe geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, U.S. foreign policy, and South Asian security have beenpublished in a number of academic journals including International Security, the Journal ofStrategic Studies, and Asian Survey, among others, and he is currently writing a book onIndian defense policy. He received a B.A. from the University of Southern California, an M.P.A.from Princeton University, and a Ph.D. from the University of Oxford. Zhong Ai is a research associate working at the Research Institute for Indian OceanEconomies, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics. The authors will be joined by staff from The Takshashila Institution, including Nitin Pai, theDirector and Co-founder, Lt General Prakash Menon, Director of the Strategic StudiesProgramme, Pranay Kotasthane, Head of Research, and Manoj Kewalramani, Fellow forChina Studies, as well as other members of the research team.

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