ability of global chemistry models to reproduce large scale ut/ls features of o3, co, ch4 and...
TRANSCRIPT
Ability of global chemistry models to reproduce large scale UT/LS features of O3, CO, CH4 and
acetone assessed by comparison to airborne CARIBIC data
Frans Alkemade 1, Michiel van Weele 1, Peter van Velthoven 1, Sophie Szopa 2, Thierry Elias 2,
Andreas Zahn 4, Tanja Schuck 3, Carl Brenninkmeijer 3 and the CARIBIC team
(1) KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, de Bilt, the Netherlands(2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ,IPSL, Gif-sur-
Yvette, France(3) Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, Mainz, Germany
(4) Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
Presentation: The Extra-tropical UTLS: observations, concepts and future directions Community workshop at NCAR, Boulder, CO
October 21, 2009
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Focus / Questions / Goals
• Can (our) models reproduce the observed large scale spatial and temporal variability and events?
• How can we use CARIBIC to evaluate several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry models (transport+chemistry)?
• Can we improve the models?
(NB: No CARIBIC data analysis see presentation Andreas Zahn)
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Overview
- GEOMON: goal & means- CARIBIC: flights & data- TM5 : characteristics of model & emissions - LMDz-INCA : characteristics of model & emissions
- Comparison CARIBIC observations to models (TM5 and LMDz INCA) , years 2005-2006 (flights 113 – 174, Southern destinations only)
O3CH4 (from October 2005 onwards)COAcetone (case study for March 2006)
- Conclusions & Future Plans
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
EU-GEOMON project (Global Earth Observation and Monitoring)
Pilot study on measurements usage.
Partners: KNMI, Un. Oslo, CEA
Some Objectives : Demonstrate the usage of Geomon Greenhouse gas
observations (CH4, CO2) for global model evaluation
Use CARIBIC observations to evaluate model simulated large scale gradients in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere
Compare the model simulations to a climatology based on airborne measurements of CO2 and CH4 from ~45 different aircraft campaigns.
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
What is observed by Caribic? (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the
atmosphere Based on an Instrumented Container)
In Flight: H2Ogas H2Ocloud Ozone NO NOy (the sum of all reactive nitrogen species: NO,
NO2, HNO3, PAN, N2O5, HNO2, HNO4, and nitrates) CO
In flight remote sensing: BrO, HCHO, OClO, O4
WAS (Whole Air Sample ; 12 canisters, analyzed in laboratory) :
CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 (+ others)
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
CARIBIC flights
TM5 CTM some characteristics of model & emissions
2 x 3 grid, 34 layers ECMWF ERA Interim (EI) meteorology O3 : Nudging to top boundary condition (climatology
based on GOME / SCIA observations) Emissions: selected datasets from GEMS and HYMN
projects (see following slides) Methane is fixed in the lowest two layers to a single
value (1760.0 ppb). Stratospheric loss by OH
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Anthropogenic emissionsfor GEOMON
• Ship and aircraft emissions: EC 6th FP IP Quantify
• Biomass burning emissions: GFEDv2 (van der Werf et al.)
• Other: year 2000 1x1 deg distributions IPCC/ACCENT; Remove ships and scale remainder with IIASA regional totals for 11 regions (‘MESSAGE’ land regions)
• For energy-related and non-energy related
• Year 2000 and scenarios for the years2010, 2020,…2050
• Linear interpolated emissions for the first decade: 2001,2002,…2009
• Agricultural emissions from EDGAR (FT2000)
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Upscaling Asian CO emissions:
Anthropogenic EDGAR, IIASA-scaled: 512 Tg(CO)Natural POET : 180 Tg(CO)Biomass burning GFEDv2 : 405 Tg(CO)
Total for 2004: 1097 Tg(CO)
• increase of ~60% in China w.r.t IPCC/ACCENT (66 => 103 Tg)
• Asia CO emissions now about half the global total of non-biomass burning anthropogenic CO
Scaling factors wrt IPCC/ACCENT
LMDz INCA (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - Interaction Chimie - Aérosols)
characteristics of model & emissions
LMDz-INCA is a GCM, u and v are nudged on ECMWF-interim analysis
(other dynamical fields being computed by LMDz Emissions are those provided for the HYMN project (identical to those
used by TM5) The model considers the chemistry of methane and NMHC (89 tracers). Stratospheric ozone is nudged to climate. For CH4 no fixed surface value is used (unlike TM5), therefore a bias is to
be expected, due to an equilibrium problem (a long run with sources=sink should be necessary to stabilize the model at the correct concentrations).
The reference papers describing INCA are Hauglustaine et al. JGR 2004
and Folberth et al. ACP 2005.
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Example of model evaluation: the CARIBIC flights of February 2006 (138-141)
Reasonably good agreement for O3, CO, CH4(Red = CARIBIC, Blue = TM5, Green = INCA)
latitude
altitude
O3
CO
CH4
Time
Correlations between O3, CO, CH4
latitude
altitude
O3
CO
CH4
O3 up,CO and CH4 down
Correlations between O3, CO, CH4
O3
CO
CH4
Correlations:O3 up,CO and CH4 down
These features correlate with PV anomaly stratospheric intrusion
Comparing Caribic – TM5 - LMDzINCA
Profiles and scatter plots of O3 CO CH4
CO- O3 scatter plots: identifying chemical transition from UT to LS
Acetone case study by LMDz INCA : 2006 flights #142-145 (Europe-South America).
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Modelled vs Observed O3 Northern Hemisphere ( > 22)
Dashed line: fit through all dataGreen line: data at locations where [O3] < 100 (troposphere)Blue line: data at locations where 100 < [O3] < 200 ( ~ UT/LS)Red line: data at locations where [O3] > 200 (stratosphere)
Observations
Model
TM5 INCA
O3 vertical distribution NH ( > 22)
TM5 INCA
Red: observationsBlue: Model
TM5 INCA
Observations
Model
Scatter CH4 Northern Hemisphere ( > 22)
CH4 vertical distribution (all data)
TM5 INCA
Red: observationsBlue: Model
CH4 vertical distribution NH ( > 22)
TM5 INCA
Red: observationsBlue: Model
CO Vertical distribution NH ( > 22)
TM5 INCA
Red: observationsBlue: Model
Caribic
INCATM5
Intrusion branche is
missing
CO – O3 scatterplot : Modelled vs Observed Mixing Ratios
Acetone Comparison LMDz-INCA / CARIBIC
#142
#145
#144 and #145
Branch of the acetone plume emitted by the Amazon forest
North AtlanticOcean
Map of daily average of acetone concentration modeled by LMDz-INCA for 21 March 2006, with superimposed airborne CARIBIC measurements.
Why acetone ?Acetone modifies radical concentrations and then intervenes in atmospheric chemistry: impacts on ozone cycle, greenhouse warming.
Future plans
Test use of OD (operational) meteo data instead of EI (ERA Interim reanalysed) meteo.
Improve upper boundary conditions (CH4, O3, CO)
Look at more tracers (NO, NOy, etc.) More detailed assessment of GFED biomass
burning and HYMN CH4 emissions.
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Future: CH4 anthropogenic and natural emissions
HYMN CH4 emissions Source Global Totals in 2004 (Tg CH4)
Anthropogenic EDGAR, IIASA-scaled 293Natural emissions LPJ-based 234Biomass burning GFEDv2 vd Werff 20Total emission 547Soil sink LPJ-based -36Net emission 511
Anthropogenic Natural
Conclusions Variability / spread in the observations is not completely
captured by models. ( problem with STE better vertical model resolution needed in UT/LS)
However, large scale features are captured by both models.
Comparing the observed correlations of O3, CO and CH4 to the models can be used to assess the meteorological input fields.
Direct comparison between CARIBIC observations and models may help to assess the quality of emissions/processes and of the boundary conditions used by the models.
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Thank you
Some redundant slides follow
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Anthropogenic NOX emissions:
Anthropogenic EDGAR, IIASA-scaled 26.5 TgNShip QUANTIFY 4.4 TgNAircraft QUANTIFY 0.9 TgNNatural POET 8.0 TgNBiomass burning GFEDv2 5.3 TgNLightning parameterised 5.4 TgNTotal for 2004: 50.5 TgN
Similar as used in IPCC 4AR/ACCENT study (IIASA regionally rescaled)
LMDz INCA characteristics of model & emissions
LMDz-INCA is a GCM, u and v are nudged on ECMWF-interim analysis (other dynamical fields being computed by LMDzemissions are those provided for the HYMN project (the same than yours actually)It consider the chemistruy of methane and NMHC (89 tracers).We also nudged strato ozone on a climato.The reference papers describing INCA are Hauglustaine et al. JGR 2004 and Folberth et al. ACP 2005.
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
The CEA is the French Atomic Energy Commission (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique)
*The National Institute of Sciences of the Universe**GEOMON is a scientific project within the 6th EU Framework Programme for Research and Development***The instruments and networks will be integrated into a larger system, which includes space missions and the development of digital tools to ensure all the measurements are compatible.****French laboratories involved in GEOMON: Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences (IPSL/LSCE, a joint CEA, CNRS and Université Versailles Saint-Quentin laboratory), Aeronomics Service (IPSL/SA, a joint CNRS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie and Université Versailles Saint-Quentin laboratory), Laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology (IPSL/LMD, a joint CNRS, École polytechnique, Université Paris VI and ENS Paris laboratory), Inter-University Laboratory of Atmospheric Systems (LISA, a joint CNRS, Université Paris VII and Université Paris XII laboratory), the Laboratory of Atmospheric Optics (LOA, a joint Université Lille 1 and CNRS laboratory) and the Laboratory of the Atmosphere and Cyclones (LACy, a joint CNRS, Université La Réunion and Météo-France CNRM laboratory)
F. Alkemade (KNMI): presentation at NCAR UTLS workshop, October 21st 2009
Tropical mid-troposphere O3 (-22 22 latitude)
Observations
Model
TM5 INCA
Comparing O3 (all data 2005 - 2006)
Observations
Dashed line: fit through all dataGreen line: data at locations where [O3] < 100 (troposphere)Blue line: data at locations where 100 < [O3] < 200 ( ~ UT/LS)Red line: data at locations where [O3] > 200 (stratosphere)
TM5 INCAModel
[CH4] < 1700 ppb must be stratospheric intrusion (otherwise, air would originate before 1990; implausible)
TM5