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AberdeenGroup
Project #
Extending Software Development Methodologies To Business Decision Making
Tim SloaneDirector, Enterprise & Internet [email protected] 26, 2002
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Agenda
• The Software DevelopmentProcess Reviewed
• Software Realities• Business Planning
Drives Our Requirements• “Modeling” & Simulation• Lessons From Other Industries• Model Sharing & Re-Use
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“Software Development” Defined (For This Discussion)
• Implements An Important Business Process
• Involves Multiple TeamsAnd/Or Departments
• Part Of Enterprise Strategicor Tactical Imperative
• Represents Significant Enterprise Investment
• Failure Impacts Bottom Line Or Delays Execution of Corporate Strategy/Tactics
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Implementation
IT Organization
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
Business Process Development Stages
StrategicDirection
Execution OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Bayer, F. Junginger, S. Kühn, H, A Business Process-OrientedMethodology for Developing E-Business Applications
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IT And Software Supplier Focus Today
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
StrategicDirection
OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Based on the BPMS7-Paradigm(Karagiannis et al. 1996; Bayer et al. 1999),
Implementation
IT Organization
Execution
Inception
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Software Success In 1999 DoD Study
• Review Of $35.7B Spent By The DoD On Software Indicates[1]:– 75 % Never Used Or
Cancelled Prior To Delivery– 23 % Used After Modification– Only 2% Used As Delivered
Source: JAWS S3 Proceedings, 1999
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Ford “…business managers asked IT for a major system upgrade costing about $1 million. But, months later, when it came time for deployment, managers had changed their minds. The enhancements, though built and paid for, never got off the showroom floor.”
Only about 30% of reengineering projects are successful.
Software Reality In The Large Enterprise
S. Caulfield, IT Services Global Manager, Ford
M. Hammer, J. Champy, “Reengineering the Corporation”
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Business And IT Working Together
• Only 5% of enterprise IT organizations are fully integrated into the business planning cycle [Meta Group]
• Requirements creep should be around 1 percent per month. In fact, creep of more than 2 percent a month is probably a sure sign of a project that will never reach completion. [6]
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The Business/Technical Divide
IBM Systems Journal, Volume 39, Number 2, 2000by D. Bevington
Analysis
DesignPredominantly
Technology Focused
Solution
PredominantlyBusiness Focused
ProblemStatement
Interaction ofBusiness andTechnology
Models
DiscomfortZone
Business Models Technology Models
?
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Measuring & Evaluating “What Is”
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
StrategicDirection
OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Based on the BPMS7-Paradigm(Karagiannis et al. 1996; Bayer et al. 1999),
Implementation
IT Organization
Execution
What IsBusiness Intelligence
& Monitoring
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Strategy and Tactics Look at “What If”
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
StrategicDirection
OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Based on the BPMS7-Paradigm(Karagiannis et al. 1996; Bayer et al. 1999),
Implementation
IT Organization
Execution
What IsBusiness Intelligence
& Monitoring
What If
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Process Selection Cost/Benefit Analysis
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
StrategicDirection
OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Based on the BPMS7-Paradigm(Karagiannis et al. 1996; Bayer et al. 1999),
Implementation
IT Organization
Execution
What IsBusiness Intelligence
& Monitoring
What If
Cost/Benefit
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Business Evaluation Cycle
Concurrent Engineeringof Business Processes,
Products, and OrganizationalStructure
StrategicDirection
OperationalData
Evaluation of Business Processes, Products, andOrganizational Structure
Based on the BPMS7-Paradigm(Karagiannis et al. 1996; Bayer et al. 1999),
Implementation
IT Organization
Execution
What If
What IsBusiness Intelligence
& Monitoring
Cost/Benefits
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Quarterly Business Re-Evaluations
• Quarterly Financial Reviews Drive Business Re-evaluations
• Common IT Role Is To:– Capture & Store Business
Data– Produce Mandated Reports– Produce Reports Requested
By Senior Management That Provides Operational Insight
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Ideas Are Not Treated Equally
• Models of critical enterprise options are inherently political. Financial modelers report[8]:– 45% were asked to alter sales/revenue forecasts to reflect
senior manager’s more favorable level– 52% were requested to adjust cost projections to a more
favorable level– 42% were requested to create “backcasts” to support senior
manager’s sales/revenue projections– 26% report that divisions/departments withhold critical data
needed to develop accurate models
Anyone Still Surprised At The Project Failure Rate?
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IT Has Limited Opportunity To Respond
• Only 5% of enterprise IT organizations are fully integrated into the business planning cycle [Meta Group]
• Requirements creep should be around 1 percent per month. In fact, creep of more than 2 percent a month is probably a sure sign of a project that will never reach completion. [6]
It Is Imperative IT Establish A Voice In Business
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Good News: IT Has The Basic Tools
• Data Collection / Data Analytics• Business Process
Documentation In:– Documents– Software– Workflow / BPM– Data
• Modeling Talent and Integration Tools• Analytic Thinking Skills• A Self-Interest For Cross-Organizational Success
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Accept A Broader View Of “Model”
ModelA simplified representation of a system that approximates reality
but emphasizes some features/functions at the expense of others to promote a better understanding of the modeled item.
SimulationThe manipulation of a model in such a way that it operates on
time or space to compress it, thus enabling one to perceive the interactions that would not otherwise be apparent.
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The Expanded Role For Models
• Models are inherently social media and mechanisms. They become the organization’s lingua franca, or medium francum, and bridge the multiple Departments of Babel. Simulation mediates between people and information and becomes the medium for relationship management between stakeholders.
• As an adjunct to software prototyping, simulation will transformthe speed and nature of communication and collaboration for process improvement and therefore for software development.
• A unified modeling and simulation approach supports the visualization of new processes across departments and enterprises – and comes with a ROI calculator built in!
derived from [4] “Serious Play”
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Simulation Applied To Aerospace
– Henry Shomber, 777 Chief EngineerFor Digital Preassembly”
– EPIC – Electronic Preassembly InComputer, Drove CollaborationUsing 2,200 Terminals For DesignTeam And Key Suppliers
– 777 Design Goals ConstrainedThe Model
– Departments Were Allocated Assets (weight chits)
– Automatic Conflict Detection And Alert Generation
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Simulation Applied To Process Manufacturing
• Stakeholders – Plant Designers, Business Managers, Equipment Manufacturers, Builders– Bayer Consolidated Four Types Of Simulation And Models
To Analyze Polymerization Process And Plant Design Prior To Construction
– The Simulation Analysis Maximized Productivity To Cost– The Simulation Was Also Used As Prime Training Tool
• Managers see impact of operational decisions• Operators see impact of specific control functions
– Bayer Sells Managerial Training Using Business Simulation
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Simulation Benefits:
• Encourages Collaboration Between Stake Holders• Drives Common Vocabulary / Business Object Definition• Communicates The Solution To Stake Holders And Others• Reduces Or Eliminates The Need For Prototypes• Provides Clarity On Organizational Impact • Automatically Formalizes The ROI Perceived By Stake Holders• Drives A Common Set Of Expectations• Defines How Success Will Be Measured• Becomes An Ongoing Communications And Training Tool• Provides New Insight Into Corporate Strategy And Tactics
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How Did Bayer Implement Its Models?
• Modeled All Aspects Of Styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) Polymerization Production.
• Bayer Integrated Four Models And Four Simulations –Thermodynamic, Process, Process Controls and Plant.
• Developed Common Meta Model Repository• Developed A Common Meta Modeling Language• Developed Transforms To Support Each Simulation Engine• Flow Language Directs Analysis Data Between Simulations and
Stores Results In Repository.• Simulation Used Across R&D, process design, Plant
Commissioning And Operational Training
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Bayer Process Model Warehouse
ModelDeveloper
SimulationDeveloper
ROME
CHEOPSOPENTHERMO
MODKIT
BrowseModel
RetrieveModel
EvaluateModel
StoreModel
Calculate PhysicalProperties
Calculate PhysicalProperties
Select ThermodModels
Compute UnitModule
ComputetFlowsheet
BuildModel
Computer-Aided Process Modeling and Simulation (Realms) 5/16/2002
1) Build Models InCommon Language
2) Store In MetaRepository
3) Find Model4) Design Sims5) Design Flows6) Run & Save
Analysis Data
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Mapping Simulation To OMG Standards
ModelDeveloper
MOF
UML ProcessUML Simulations
UML Modeling
BrowseModel
RetrieveModel
EvaluateModel
StoreModel
Calculate PhysicalProperties
Calculate PhysicalProperties
Select ThermodModels
Compute UnitModule
ComputetFlowsheet
BuildModel
Source: AberdeenGroup
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Preliminary Findings
• Sharing Models Across Technology Domains Will “Lift All Boats.”• Simulation Can:
– Drive Collaboration between IT and Business Units On Requirements– Gather And Document Key Benefits– Provide Alternative To Prototypes– Create New Solution Domain Coupled To UML/MOF/XMI
• Simulation Model Must Be Interoperable With UML• Model Sharing Enables Incremental Development• Repository Needed To Manage Sim Models and Data
"A conclusion is simply the placewhere someone got tired of thinking."
Arthur Block
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Source
[1] Jarzombek, Stanley J. “The 5th Annual Joint Aerospace Weapons Systems Support, Sensors, and Simulation Symposium (JAWS S3).” Proceedings, 1999.
[2] The Standish Group International, Inc. The CHAOS Report, 1994. [3] Software Engineering Institute. The Capability Maturity Model Guidelines for Improving the
Software Process. Boston: Addison-Wesley, 1994.[4] Schrage, M. “Serious Play – How the World’s Best Companies Simulate To Innovate.” Harvard
Business School Press 1999. [5] D’Hertefelt, Sim. “13 Common Objections Against User Requirements Analysis, and Why You
Should Not Believe Them.” Interaction Architect.com 9 June 2000. [6] Leishman, Theron R. and Cook, Dr. David A. “Requirements Risks Can Drown Software
Projects.” CROSSTALK The Journal of Defense Software Engineering April 2, 2002.[7] Bayer, F. and Junginger, S. and Kühn, H. “A Business Process-Oriented
Methodology for Developing E-Business Applications” (ECEC'2000), April 17-19, 2000[8] Gailbraith, C. and Merrill, G “The Politics of Forecasting: Managing the Truth” 1996 California
Management Review[9] AN APPROACH TO USE UML FOR BUSINESS PROCESS MODELING AND SIMULATION
IN ADONIS -- Proceedings of the 13th European Simulation Multiconference (ESM 99), Warsaw, Poland, June 1-4, 1999