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Cairo University
Faculty of Economics and Political Science
Statistics Department
English Section
Fourth Year
: Abeer Adel Attia Alaa Magdy Ali Amany Kamal El- Din
: Dr/ Ramadan Hamed
First of all we wish to thank God
We wish also to express our sincere appreciation
And gratitude to:
For their time, effort, advice, and continuous guidance throughout the study.
Last but not least, thanks are extended to our
Family and our close friends.
Dr.Ramadan Hamed Dr.Fatma El Zanaty
Dr.Dina Magdy Mrs.Sara Osama
1
Contents Pages
Chapter one: Historical View on the Crisis 5
1. Introduction 6
2. Literature Review 6
3. Importance and Objective of the Study 7
4. Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin Countries 8
(1.4.1) The Dimension of Water 9
(1.4.2) The Economic Dimension 12
(1.4.3) The Political Dimension 15
(1.4.4) The Cultural Dimension 17
Chapter Two: Methodology 18
1. Methodological Procedures 19
(2.1.1) Target Population 19
(2.1.2) Sample Design 19
(2.1.3)Suggested Sample Technique 20
(2.1.4)Sample Size 21
2. Questionnaire Design 23
3. Pre-Test 25
4. Data Collection 25
5. Editing and Coding 26
6. Data Analysis 26
Chapter Three: Background Characteristics and Knowledge of
Water Crisis
27
1. Background characteristics of the respondents 28
List of
Contents
2
2. Knowledge of Youth about the water problem between Egypt and Nile Basin countries
29
3. Knowledge of treaties that were signed between Egypt and Nile Basin countries
31
4. Knowledge of Youth about water situation in Egypt 34
5. Views to Solve Water Crisis 35
(3.5.1)The Political Dimension 35
(3.5.2)The Economic Dimension 36
(3.5.3)The Social Dimension 37
Chapter Four: Determinants of Knowledge of Water Crisis 38
1. Constructing “Knowledge of Youth “ index 39
2. Knowledge of Youth and background characteristics 42
3. Knowledge of Youth and exposure to Media 45
4. The internal water crisis in Egypt 45
5. Attitudes towards solving the water crisis 46
(4.5.1)Political Dimension 46
(4.5.2)Economic Dimension 47
(4.5.3)Social Dimension 48
Chapter Five: Logistic Model 49
1. Multicollinearity Test 50
2. Knowledge of Youth Model 51
Chapter Six: Conclusion and Recommendations 54
1.Conclusion 55
2.Recommendations 56
List of References 59
Appendices 61
3
List of Tables Pages Table1:Trade exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries 13
Table 2.1:The number of students in each faculty according to
gender from the population 22
Table 2.2: The sample that taken from each faculty according to
gender 22
Table 2.3: Weights according to gender
23
Table 3.1: Having information according to (faculty and gender)
29
Table 3.2: Source of knowledge according to (faculty and gender) 30
Table 3.3: Treaties that were signed between Egypt and Nile Basin
countries 32
Table 3.4: Sectors that consume water
34
Table 3.5: Political view on the crisis
35
Table 3.6: Economic view on the crisis
36
Table 4.1: Data preparation for constructing the index
39
Table 4.2: Descriptive Measures for the Index (Knowledge of
Youth) 41
Table 4.3: Knowledge of Youth regarding the most consuming
sector for water 46
Table4. 4: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and military
intervention 46
Table4. 5: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and investment in
the Basin countries 47
Table 4.6: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and their opinion
on social relations 48
Table 5.1: Eigen values for testing multicollinearity 50
Table 5.2: Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients 51
Table 5.3: Classification Table 52
Table 5.4: Variables in the Equation 52
4
List of Figures Pages
Figure 3.1: Percent distribution of respondents’ age according to
their sex 28
Figure 3.2: Percent distribution of respondents’ by place of
residence according to their sex 28
Figure 3.3: Percent distribution of respondents’ sections in Faculty
of Economics and Political Science 28
Figure 3.4: Percent distribution of respondents’ departments in
both faculties 29
Figure 3.5: Percent distribution about the sufficiency of
information sources 30
Figure 3.6: Percent distribution for the number of Nile Basin
states 31
Figure 3.7: Percent distribution of “is Egypt mouth or source
country?” 31
Figure 3.8: Student’s perception on the state that tries to decrease
Egypt’s quota 33
Figure 3.9: Percent distribution for the supportive state
33
Figure 3.10: Social view on the crisis
37
Figure 4.1: Box Plot for Knowledge of Youth 41
Figure 4.2: Normal Q-Q Plot of Knowledge of Youth 42
Figure 4.3: Knowledge of Youth according to gender 42
Figure 4.4: Knowledge of Youth according to place of residence 43
Figure 4.5: Knowledge of Youth according to faculty
43
Figure 4.6: Knowledge of Youth according to gender controlling
faculty 44
Figure 4.7: Knowledge of Youth according to year of study
44
Figure 4.8: Knowledge of Youth according to source of information
45
5
This chapter will introduce the following topics and will be visualized
as follows :
Chapter 1
Introduction
literature
Review
Importance and
objective of the
Study
Relations
between Nile
Basin countries
The
Dimension of
water
The Economic
Dimension
The Political
Dimension
The Social
Dimension
Chapter One
{Historical View on the Crisis}
6
Egypt and Nile Basin countries
Water crisis between Egypt and Nile Basin Countries will be discussed through
four dimensions (Water dimension, Economic dimension, Political dimension, and
Social dimension).
I. Introduction
Ten African countries participate in the Nile Basin (Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya,
Uganda, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea), that promoting these
countries to seek for mechanisms to enhance cooperation between them. Co-operation
between these countries started many years ago.
It focused mainly on organizing the exploitation
of the Nile water and ensuring the optimal
distribution of the Nile water. In order to achieve
this, number of treaties had been signed between
these countries, and number of organizations had
been established. [24]
The dimension of water is the main driver
of the relations between the countries of the
Basin. These relations become more important, in
the light of increasing the need to water
resources, and exposure of water resources in the coming years for the loss and scarcity.
In spite of the threats facing the Nile water it has become necessary to search for the best
possible ways to strengthen co-ordination and co-operation among Nile Basin countries
to ensure the proper utilization of the Nile water.
II. Literature Review
The study of water crisis in Egypt is a very important topic because Egypt suffers
from water problems. Classed as a water scarce country, its citizens receive less than
1000 m3 of fresh water per capita each year. Few studies addressed this problem.
7
Examples of these studies:
1) A study conducted by EL ZANATY AND ASSOCIATES on Knowledge,
Attitudes, and Practices of Egyptian Farmers towards Water Resources.
This survey was a national impact survey for the purpose of monitoring national
trends regarding the ways in which farmers manage water. The main objective of the
KAP survey was to monitor trends related to farmers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices
towards water resources. The survey targeted 2,200 farmers.
2) Study conducted by Hussein Abdel Shafy of the Egyptian National Research Center
and Medhat Saleh of Al-Azhar University on exploiting naturally occurring resources and
developed original theories to assist rural locales in achieving effective sanitation. [16]
This study will continue the previous studies which made on the awareness of people
on water crisis.
III. Importance AND OBJECTIVE of the Study
This study aims to measure the awareness of youth on water crisis, and whether
they are really worried about the water security problem in Egypt through the following
questions and threats.
Is Egypt on the outskirts of water war?
Is it a political problem or water problem?
Are the hidden hands (Israel) playing a role to decline Egypt's quota?
What is the impact of Entebbe treaty on Egypt's quota?
How to deal with current developments?
Questions
8
Egypt needs 86 billion cubic meters of water under the water shortage risk in
2017.
United Nations announced in 2007 that temperatures rising due to climate
changes may lead to more desertification, and these countries may lose 60% of
the Nile water.
Egypt depends on 97% of its water needs on the Nile River.
If Egypt has to buy water, that costs 28 billion yearly.
In particular, this study aims to explore Egyptian youth knowledge and attitudes towards the Nile
water problem; specifically:
1. Identifying Nile Basin countries, treaties signed between them, and the
relationship between them.
2. Identifying Egypt's quota of river water and the risks that threaten us if Egypt's
quota was reduced.
3. Knowing the presence of foreign interference in this problem is to disrupt the
interests of Egypt.
4. Identifying the consequences of this problem in the future for the coming
generations.
In addition to exploring youth attitudes towards the Egyptian policy, and their
suggestions to solve this crisis.
IV. Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin countries
Relations between Egypt and Nile Basin countries are based on number of
dimensions. The dimension of water is the most prominent dimension due to the
requirements of geographical conditions and participation among those countries in the
Nile Basin which necessitated the frameworks to regulate the Nile water between them
that seemed evident from the treaties and institutional frameworks.
Threats
9
[1] The Dimension of Water
Nile Basin countries reached to number
of treaties and institutional frameworks to
regulate the exploitation of the Nile water
between them.
A. The legal Regulation
Water relations between the countries of the Nile River established on the basis of
a set of agreements and protocols, which back to Rome Protocol, signed on 15 April
1891 between Britain and Italy on the identification of areas of each country in East
Africa. Italy pledged not to establish any facilities for irrigation purposes on the Atbara
River can affect the behavior of the Nile. [2]
The most important treaties:
a) 1929 Treaty
This treaty regulates the water relations between Egypt and countries
of Equatorial plateau. It also included items concerning the relationship of water between
Egypt and Sudan. It had been received by letter from the Egyptian Prime Minister and
British High Commissioner.
b) 1959 Treaty
It is a complementary to the 1929 treaty not void to it, where it includes the full
control of Egypt and Sudan Nile water.
The agreement provides for Egypt 48 billion cubic meters annually, as well as the
right of Sudan estimated by 4 billion cubic meters annually, the approval of the two
countries to Egypt's establishment of the High Dam and Sudan to establish a reservoir
Rosieres on Blue Nile. In the same context the agreement includes distribution of interest
water of the High Dam estimated by 22 billion cubic meters annually on the two
countries so that Sudan gets only 14.5 billion cubic meters, and Egypt gets 7.5 billion
cubic meters. Then the total quota of Egypt is 55.5 billion cubic meters, and 18.5 billion
cubic meters for Sudan annually. [21]
10
c) Entebbe Treaty
This treaty was signed by 6 countries from the upstream countries (Ethiopia,
Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Burundi) in the capital Entebbe on 14 May 2010.
Democratic Congo and Burundi did not attend the signing ceremony.
Although the seven upstream countries demand all the need to reconsider these two
treaties, Egypt and Sudan insist that any amendment must be approved by all the Basin
countries on the basis of the text of the treaties to the actual need of each to Nile water
and how to share and invest in.
There are three controversial items:
1. Abolition of historical quotas, compared to the formulation of a new item states that
use all the Nile Basin countries to the river water to achieve water security.
2. Requirement of consensus rather than majority when change any of the terms of the
treaty.
3. The need for prior notification of Egypt and Sudan with projects and dams which
upstream countries intend to it (the Egyptian veto).
Although Entebbe does not specify any new numbers to next share of water, but
practically cancels 1929 and 1959 treaties. Allowing for the Basin countries to
use water as it deems necessary without harm to other countries, and the
establishment of the Office of the Nile Basin countries in the capital Addis
Ababa. [22]
B. The Institutional Aspect
It should be noted that the institutional aspect is important in the framework of
activating the frameworks of cooperation among Nile Basin countries as follows:
a) Nile Water Institution
A permanent technical common Institution was established for Nile water between
Egypt and Sudan, a body that was made in accordance with the treaty in 1959. It is
working to study and create projects to increase the river revenue.
11
b) Hydromet project
It is concerned with the study of meteorological and water for the Basin of
equatorial lakes. This project had been launched in 1967 with the participation of only
five countries of the ten Basin countries. They are Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and
Sudan. After that joined by Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Congo, and Ethiopia joined as
an observer.
c) Indigo congregation
The establishment of congregation was announced during the first Ministerial
Conference of the Nile Basin countries held in Khartoum in 1983 to coordinate between
countries towards the issues of regional, support cooperation between the countries of
congregation in the development field, exchange of experiences in all fields in order to
support regional cooperation, and to support the economic integration between the
Member States of the convention. [20]
d) Techno Nil congregation
It is congregation for technical co-operation among Nile Basin countries for the
development and protection of the environment, this congregation was established in
December 1992 with the participation of six countries as active members are: Egypt,
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Democratic Congo, while the rest countries got
the observer status.
e) The Nile Basin Initiative
The ten Nile Basin countries had involved in an initiative known as the Nile Basin
Initiative, which agreed with nine of these states (except Eritrea as an observer).The
initiative aims to seek creating a legal template for Nile water usage, raising the level
and degree of co-operation of water resources, improving the methods of Nile water
usage to achieve the benefit of economic and social development for all peoples of the
Basin, and keeping sustainable management of Nile water to achieve mutual goals
between these countries.
f) The Technical Office of the Regional Eastern Nile (Intro)
It is a regional office was established in March 2001 agreement between Egypt,
Sudan, and Ethiopia in Addis Ababa to discuss joint water projects, which are grouped in
(Programme of work for the Eastern Nile Basin). The program includes several projects
in the flood control area and generates electricity from river water.
12
[2] The Economic Dimension
Perhaps the events in Darfur and southern Sudan, what is happening in the Great
Lakes region and Somalia, and the dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia weakened the
chances of integration across the continent, so we need to reformulate the vision of Egypt
future return to Africa.
A. Economic characteristics of Nile Basin countries
Nile Basin countries include ten countries where (260) million live at, and
economies of these States are characterized by the following:
1- The presence of chronic structural deficit in the balance of payments of these countries
due to the internal problems, in spite of the enjoyment of many natural resources of
minerals, forests ,and livestock .
2- The high level of external indebtedness of these countries to GDP.
3- Low rates of economic development in those countries.
4- The high rate of inflation, and increased risk-marketing.
5- Non-availability of qualified technical cadres at all levels.
6- Poor worker productivity and reduced health care.
7- Low levels of technology used in production.
8- Lack of transportation and communication networks.
9- Lack of capital formation necessary for the development processes.
10- Low level of GDP per capita ,in spite of the wealth these countries enjoyed it ,which
is one of the most African countries equipped to precious metals such as diamonds
,alkobac, uranium ,and oil).[13]
B.Foreign Trade of Nile Basin countries
Nile Basin countries suffer from a deficit in the trade balance due to weak import
bill as a result of the inability of the productive apparatus for the provision of consumer
needs, although they are almost self-sufficient in raw materials of mineral, agricultural,
and animal, for example Egypt’s exports and imports from Nile Basin countries:
13
1. Indicators of Trade Exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries:
Table 1:Trade exchange between Egypt and Nile Basin countries:
(Value in U.S. $ million)
Egypt - Nile Basin countries 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Egyptian exports 115 145 271.2 264.8 269.7
Egyptian imports 123.4 86 94 89 103
Trade balance (8.4) 59 177.2 175.8 166.7
Source: The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
This Table indicates that Egypt’s exports to Nile Basin countries increased from
2003 to 2007.While its imports decreased through these years.
2.Obstacles of the Trade Exchange :
1- The lack of shipping lines (air and sea) regularly between Egypt and most countries
in Africa as well as they have canceled flights.
2- The presence of many of the shortcomings of railway lines, and increasing the cost
of transportation.
3- The lack of insurance system, as well as the absence of branches of Egyptian banks
in most African countries, where the dependent transactions on the African continent
on the personal relations between exporters and importers businessmen.
4- Scarcity of information on the African market to the Egyptian trade companies.
Arab Republic of Egypt: Egypt's exports to Nile Basin countries are: iron , steel
products , glass ,chemical compounds ,pharmaceuticals for human medicine , white
cement , wooden furniture , textile products ,marble , building materials ,rice ,and
fertilizer. While Egypt imports from Nile Basin countries some agricultural and
mineral raw materials, tea comes as the most important Egypt’s imports, followed by
sesame seeds, living camels, and leather. [23]
14
5- Lack of marketing policy of Egyptian products' promotion through various media
on the African market.
6- There are no permanent exhibitions of Egyptian goods in African countries.[4]
3.Axes to promote trade Co-operation of the Nile Basin countries:
First: Trade liberalization
a - Maximizing the use of the COMESA Trade
The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) consists of
19 countries and nine countries established a free trade zone in 1999. These countries
are: Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Mauritius, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Malawi, and
Madagascar, then joined the two countries Rwanda and Burundi, followed by the
Comoros in June 2006. It is noted the membership of four Nile Basin countries in the
COMESA free trade (Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi).
b- Optimization of the COMESA Treaty through
1- Promoting trade exchange between Egypt and the Member States in the free trade
area by working to eliminate all exceptions applied by some countries (Kenya and
Sudan). Encourage states that have not yet acceded to the free trade area to join.
2- The Egyptian goods' promotion in the COMESA countries such as the
establishment of specialized exhibitions and promotional missions for Eastern and
Southern Africa.
3- Identifying number of Egyptian products that have a great opportunity in the
COMESA markets. [10]
Second: Investment and common projects
Make connections with governmental bodies of Nile Basin countries through
Egyptian embassies and commercial representation offices to identify investment
opportunities, available projects, and the technical support required.
Call of Egyptian businessmen to establish common investment projects.
15
Third: The promotion of Egyptian Exports and holding
commercial transactions
Organizing promotional campaigns including governmental delegations,
businessmen and in co-ordination with the African Chambers union, the Egyptian
Businessmen Association, and the Association of East and Southern Africa COMESA
with a focus on goods where Egypt has a competitive advantage.
Developing a policy to promote the Egyptian products marketing, also
identifying export and import opportunities from Nile Basin countries.
Fourth: Financing and guarantee Exports and Investment
Make sure that Egyptian exporters have benefited from financial assistance
provided by the African Development Bank and other international financial
institutions in the development of exports.
The exchange of direct banking relations and establishing branches of Egyptian
banks.
[3]: The Political Dimension
When the issue of the relationship between Egypt and African countries raised in
general ,and between Egypt and Nile Basin countries in particular, there are many things
can be debatable, because Egypt is the leading country that supported the national
liberation movements, since Muhammad Ali Pasha entered the south meaning access to
the source of the Nile. Egypt remained governor of these areas until 1924 when Britain
was able to monopolize governing of this country and an end to the Egyptian presence.
There are attempts by number of Nile Basin countries to strengthen political
relations with each other through the revitalization of the joint committees work, and
discuss issues of common interest which have an impact on internal security in some
countries in the Basin in particular. The following points may affect the political relations:
16
Separation of Sudan will add a new node to Sudan and Nile Basin countries in
general. [19]
Strengthen U.S. relations with many countries of upstream, in the context of
trying to enter the U.S. on the African continent.
Israel's role in inciting the upstream countries to sign the Framework Agreement,
which was objected by Egypt ,or stop Egypt form raising nuclear capabilities
Zionism in international forums.
Signing a treaty between Nile Basin countries on how to share the Nile water,
virtually eliminating the previous two treaties which organized the relationship
between the Basin states over the previous decades. The signs of crisis in the
relations between these countries have begun, so the title of this crisis is “War on
water”.
The current problem between the countries of the Nile Basin is essentially a
political problem and not a problem on water ,where the Nile River has an
estimated 1660 billion cubic meters of water.[8]
Foreign Policy towards African countries and the countries of
the Basin in particular
Egypt crisis with Nile Basin countries has
many causes not born of the moment, but is the
result of the Egyptian foreign policy accumulated
errors towards those African countries, especially
in the moment gone by Egypt back to Africa after
the failed attempt to assassinate the previous
President Mubarak in 1995 in Addis Ababa.
Declining the Egyptian African role in the
past few decades from a supporter of African
liberation movements, assistance in resolving their
problems, to retreat and changing priorities in the
Egyptian continental and international policies.
17
[4] The Cultural Dimension
Culture is an important axis
in the relations between Nile Basin
countries through the missions of
cultural exchange, and co-operation
in various fields of culture.
The most indicators of the cultural Communication:
1. Scholarships offered by the Egyptian Ministry of Awqaf and Al-Azhar Al-Sharif for
African students (from Nile Basin countries) in addition to sending scientists from Al-
Azhar to African countries.
2. Participating in national celebrations between Nile Basin countries, and consolidating
the bonds of co-operation between States.
3. Communicating with the forces of civil society and interacting with the public
opinion. As cultural co-operation with societies of Nile Basin countries provide a solid
foundation and encourage policies of their governments about co-operation on Nile
water.
4. Egyptian media towards Nile Basin countries:
The Egyptian media policy has to confirm meanings related to public policy and the
Egyptian Foreign policy. On one hand it highlights the trend of Egypt's proposal to
renounce violence and work to combat terrorism, on the other hand stresses the
importance of peaceful settlement of disputes. In addition it shows the importance of
common work between the countries of the continent, as well as highlighting the climate
of stability in Egypt will allow the flow of investments, and extend an invitation to the
brothers of African tourism in Egypt. [1]
18
The following graph represents the main components of this chapter:
Chapter 2
Methodoligical
Procedures
Questionnaire
Design
Pre-Test
Data Collection
Editing and
Coding
Data Analysis
Chapter Two
{METHDOLOGY}
19
A. Methodological procedures
Our goal from this part is to reflect:
i. Target Population
As the study aims to measure the awareness of youth on water crisis
and to explore their attitudes and practices towards the water crisis, the study
should have been applied to the youth in all parts of Egypt. Due to the large
size and wide spread of the population, difficulty to collect data from a
representative sample for the population, the high cost and limited time, the
study was conducted on “Cairo university students”.
Thus, the Target Population becomes “Cairo University students”.
ii. Sample Design
As the accessible population is “Cairo university students”, it was
decided to study whether the awareness of the students on water crisis and
their attitudes differ according to the type of faculty whether it’s Literature or
Scientific, the suggested sample technique is “Stratified Random Sample”.
The Reasons behind using Stratified Random Sample are:
1. A stratified sample often requires a smaller sample, which saves money.
2. A stratified sample can guard against an "unrepresentative" sample.
20
3. It provides sufficient sample points to support a separate analysis of any
subgroup.[5]
iii. Suggested Sample Technique
As the suggested sample technique is “stratified random sample”, so Cairo
University includes two strata:
The Sample was selected in two phases:
Phase One: Selecting a faculty from each stratum randomly.
Phase Two: Students are randomly selected from each selected faculty.
Two faculties were randomly selected according to the type of faculty
whether it’s Literature or Scientific:
1. Faculty of Economics and Political Science represents the literature faculties.
2. Faculty of Engineering represents the scientific faculties.
So our main domain can be summarized as follows:
literature Faculties
Scientific Faculties
Cairo University
21
iv. Sample Size
The following formula was used to calculate the sample size, assuming a
95% confidence level:
Where:
n: The minimum required sample size.
Zα/2: (1.96) which is the value obtained from the standard normal table using
95% confidence level (α = 0.05).
E2: The sampling error and it is estimated to be 5%.
P: Actual population proportion, (it is set as 0.5 to have the maximum sample
size needed).
Then assuming a 25% non-response rate, which eventually resulted with the
actual sample size as follows:
A sample of 500 students was selected; from both faculties and students were
randomly selected representing {Gender (male, female), years, Departments, sections, and
place of residence}.
The number of students in Faculty of Economics and Political Science and Faculty
of Engineering are presented in Table 2.1 by gender, and table 2.2 presents the
distribution of the sample.
Actual sample size (n) = Sample size (n) + Non-response size
Then:
Actual sample size (n) = 384 + (0.25 * 384) = 480
n = [(Z α/2)2 P (1- P)] / E2
Then:
n = [(1.96)2 0.5 (1- 0.5)] / (0.05)2 = 384
22
Table 2.1:The number of students in each faculty according to
gender from the population:
Faculty Male Female Total
Economics 732 2089 2821
Engineering 7464 2306 9770 Source: Calculated by authors.
Table 2.2: The sample that taken from each faculty according to
gender:
Faculty Male Female Total
Economics 52 198 250
Engineering 170 80 250 Source: Calculated by authors.
To reflect the actual population in the two Faculties, weights
had to be applied. These weights were calculated according to the
following formula:
Where:
h: Denotes the hth
stratum (faculty); h=1(Faculty of Economics and Political
Science,2(Faculty of Engineering).
i: Denotes the ith
gender ;i=1(male),2(female)
N: The population size (12591 students).
Nhi: Number of students in hth stratum for i
th gender
nhi: The sample size taken from ith gender and h
th Faculty.
n: The total sample size (500 students).
Whi = (Nhi / N) * (n/ nhi)
23
Table 2.3 :Weights according to gender:
Faculty Male Female
Economics .56 0.42
Engineering 1.74 1.14 Source: Calculated by authors.
It was supposed to select the sample randomly from lists of students .Due to
difficulty to have these lists it was decided to take students from different lecture rooms,
and in different times.
B. Questionnaire design
The questionnaire collects information on the following topics:
Personal questions:
It includes questions from (1→7), related to:
(Gender, Age, Place of residence, Faculty, Section, Year and
Department), from these questions general background about youth
could be formed.
Media role questions:
It includes questions from (8→11).
These questions are about the sources of information including
traditional means (T.V, Newspaper, and Radio), and modern (Internet
and Conferences).
Youth general information on crisis:
It includes questions from (12→22).
These questions measure the extent of being aware of the number of
Nile Basin countries, number of treaties, Egypt quota and Egypt position from
last treaty.
24
“There are some open questions in order to give youth the opportunity to express their
opinions freely whether their opinions are political, economic or social”.
Youth Economic vision:
It includes questions from (30→33).
These questions show the youth economic perception on solutions
for the crisis such as investment or sending workers abroad to Nile Basin
countries.
Youth Social vision:
It includes questions from (34→35).
These questions collect information on the youth social vision about
solving water crisis problem.
Realizing the situation in Egypt :
It includes questions from (36→39).
These questions aim to explore youth attitudes towards the water
crisis in Egypt and their suggested practices in: irrigation, industry, and
households.
Youth Political vision:
It includes questions from (23→29).
These questions measure the extent of being aware of Egypt relation
with the Nile Basin countries and show the youth opinion about the
Egyptian government role in solving the problem of water crisis.
25
c. Pre-test
This survey was preceeded by a pre-test to guarantee comprehensiveness clarity
and consistency of the questionnaire, this pre-test was conducted on 20 students
distributed equally between the two selected faculties. Results were discussed and some
modifications were done to ensure ease and clarity. These modifications were:
Question (6) → Modified to be an open question.
Question (24) → Added.
Questions (31/36/37/38/39) → Allowed doing multiple answers.
The detailed questionnaire is presented in Appendix V.
D. Data Collection
A self-administered questionnaire was conducted to the selected sample. This
questionnaire was suited for the purpose of descriptive analysis, as well as providing a
basis for explanation of conceptual relationships.
Data collection process was carried out in March 2011. Before collecting the data;
some difficulties were faced such as getting permission from student’s affairs to enter the
faculty of Engineering, and getting permission to have the number of students in both
faculties. Thus, it took 10 days to get the permissions and the number of students.
The actual time of data collection took approximately two weeks.
Difficulties of data collection field work:
1- Students’ low awareness of the importance of data collection.
2- The extreme difficulty to get the total number of students in both faculties, especially
the number of students of Engineering because of the large number of sections.
3- Difficulties during distributing questionnaires, as some of the students find the subject
so boring and there are many pages to fill, so they either refuse to fill the questionnaires,
take the questionnaires and throw them away without answering them, or do not pay
attention to us while we are talking to them and this is so humiliating.
4- Some students do not know “what is a questionnaire”, so they were afraid to fill it in
order not to get into troubles.
26
To overcome this problem, we illustrated the meaning of a questionnaire. We were
careful to assure them that this project is a "statistical project, it is not social or polit ical",
it wouldn’t be discussed outside the framework of the faculty, as their names are not in
the questionnaire.
E. editing and coding
Students’ responses were reviewed, incomplete and inconsistent ones were
excluded.
Data Entry: Data were entered using SPSS.
Coding has been done such as:
Age→ (less than 18 years=1, from 18 to 20 years=2, and more than 20 years =3).
Number of States→ (less than 5 states=1, from 6 to 9 states=2, from 10 to 11
states=3, and more than 12=4).
Number of treaties→ (from 1 to 4 treaties=1, from 5 to 10 treaties=2, and
more than 11 treaties=3).
Last treaty date→ (1929-1955=1, 1956-1985=2, and 1986-2011=3). Number of items→ (from 1 to 3=1, from 4 to 7=2, and more than 7=3).
And so on.
All open questions and the answers that came in the selection of other were
taken into consideration in the project conclusion.
f. Data analysis
The objectives of the study were achieved using a combination of
different statistical tools such as:
1. Assessing the relationships between variables: Using statistical tool as
Chi-square test.
2. Assessing the strength of association: Using measures Such as Gamma
and Odds Ratio.
3. Factor Analysis: Was performed in order to construct a” knowledge of youth”
index.
4. Logistic Model: Was performed to study the main determinants of youth
knowledge on the water crisis.
27
In this chapter, the sample will be described through five sections
addressed in the research as follows:
Chapter 3
Characteristics
of the
Respondents
Knowledge of youth
about the water
problem
Treaties that were
signed between
Egypt and Nile
Basin countries
knowledge of youth
about the internal
water crisis in
Egypt
Views to Solve
Water Crisis
The Political
Dimension
The Economic
Dimension
The Social
Dimension
Chapter Three
{Background characteristics and knowledge of water crisis}
28
SECTION 1: background characteristics of the respondents
In this section, the sample will be described based on personal characteristics of the
respondents as (age, place of residence, section, department, and year) as follows:
Figure 3.1: Percent distribution of respondents’ age according to their sex
This figure shows that the
majority of the sample are 18
years or older .The percentage
of males whose age exceed 20
is greater than percentage of
females by 18 percentage
points, while percentage of
females whose age is less than
18 years is twice percentage of
males. Source: created by authors.
Figure 3.2: Percent distribution of respondents’ by place of residence
according to their sex
This figure shows that the
majority of the selected
sample either males or
females live in urban areas.
The percentage of males
who live in rural areas is
very slightly higher than
percentage of females. Source: created by authors.
Figure 3.3: Percent distribution of respondents’ sections in Faculty of
Economics and Political Science
Most of respondents in
Faculty of Economics and
Political Science are in
Arabic section, followed by
English section, while the
lowest percentage is in
French section.
Source: created by authors.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
male female
11% 7%
89% 93%
rural
urban
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
less than 18 years
from 18 to 20 years
higher than 20
years
8%
42%50%
16%
52%
32%
male
female
0
20
40
60
Arabic English French
51%
38%
11%
29
Figure 3.4: Percent distribution of respondents’ departments in both
faculties
Economics department in
Faculty of Economics and
Political Science, and Civil
Engineering in Faculty of
Engineering have the
highest percentage of
students in the sample.
Source: created by authors.
Section 2: Knowledge of youth about the water problem between
Egypt and Nile Basin countries
In this section, the level and source of students’ knowledge of water crisis are
presented.
Table 3.1 represents the percentage of students either males or females who have
information on the crisis.
Table 3.1: Having information according to (faculty and gender)
Gender
Faculty
Total
Economics
and
Political
Science
Engineering
Male
Information Yes 86% 94% 94%
No 14% 6% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Female
Information Yes 88% 90% 89 %
No 12% 10% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Source: calculated by authors.
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
stat
isti
cs
Eco
no
mic
s
Po
litic
al s
cien
ce
Wit
ho
ut
maj
or
in …
Elec
tro
nic
s &
…
Civ
il en
gin
eeri
ng
Po
wer
& …
Bio
…
Arc
hit
ectu
re
Co
mp
ute
r …
Me
chan
ical
…
Avi
atio
n &
…
Pet
role
um
…
Me
chan
ical
…
Min
ing
Pro
ject
…
35%
22%
30
In general males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than females (94% and 89%)
respectively. The percentage of males who have information on the crisis in Faculty of
Engineering is higher than the percentage of males in Faculty of Economics and Political
Science. The percentage of females who have information on the crisis in Faculty of
Engineering is approximately equal to the percentage of females in Faculty of Economics
and Political Science.
Table 3.2 represents the sources of the students’ information on the crisis.
Table 3.2: Source of knowledge according to (faculty and gender)
Source of
information
Faculty of Economics and
Political Science
Faculty of Engineering
Male Female Male Female
T.V Internet
Newspapers Conferences
Radio Friends
64%
60%
52%
17%
8%
16%
75%
53%
48%
4 %
10%
30%
79%
71%
47%
5 %
14%
40%
90%
52%
38%
0%
10%
16% Source: calculated by authors.
It is obvious that the most important source of information is T.V, followed by
Internet, Newspapers, Friends, Radio, and finally conferences. As it is shown above 64%
of males in Faculty of Economics and Political Science, and 79% of males in Faculty of
Engineering, also 75% of females in Faculty of Economics and Political Science, and
90% of females in Faculty of Engineering depend on T.V, as it is easier and many people
have it.
Figure 3.5: Percent distribution about the sufficiency of information sources
This figure shows that students
aren’t satisfied with the amount of
information they have from the
different sources. When they were
asked about the sufficiency of
information that they gained, the
majority either males or females
their answers were may be.
Source: created by authors.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
yes maybe no
sufficient_information
6 %
58 %
36%
7%
65%
28%male
female
31
Figure 3.6: Percent distribution for the number of Nile Basin states
This figure shows that 43% of the
students chose an answer
extremely close to the correct one.
While 28.9% of the students’
answers were exactly correct as
they mentioned that the number of
Nile Basin countries is 10
countries. 47% of the students
their answers were slightly close
to right. This result reflects that
the students in this sample have
general information on the crisis.
Source: created by authors.
Figure 3.7: Percent distribution of “is Egypt mouth or source country?”
This figure indicates that
almost all the sample both
males or females chose the
right answer of this question
which is Egypt is a mouth
country .This confirms the
deduced conclusion from the
previous figure which is
students in this sample have
general information on this
topic.
Source: created by authors.
Section 3: knowledge of treaties that were signed between Egypt
and Nile Basin countries
In this section, the general information of students about the historical aspect of the
water problem between Egypt and Nile Basin countries will be measured.
Before analyzing table 3.3, which reflects the information of students
in both faculties according to their sex, the valid answers of these
questions will be mentioned first:
Four treaties were signed between Nile Basin countries.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
male female
99% 97 %
1% 3%
mouth
source
1%
47%
43%
9%less than 5 states
from 6 to 9 states
from 10 to 11 states
greater than 12 states
32
The last treaty was in 2010.
Egypt disagreed on the last treaty.
Egypt refused three items in the last treaty.
Egypt’s quota was determined in 1959 treaty.
The annual Egyptian quota from the Nile River water is 55.5 billion cubic meters.
Table 3.3: Knowledge about treaties that were signed between Egypt and
Nile Basin countries
Faculty of
Economics and
Political Science
Faculty of
Engineering
Total
Number of
treaties
From 1 to 4 treaties From 5 to 10 treaties More than 11 treaties
Male Female Male Female
50%
44%
6%
48%
48%
4%
72%
11%
17%
47%
41%
12%
63%
24%
13%
Last treaty
date
From 1929 to 1955 From 1956 to 1985 From 1986 to 2011
0%
29 %
71%
3%
9%
88%
8%
30%
62%
0%
0%
100%
5%
23%
72%
Egypt
position
from the
last
agreement
agree on all items disagree on all items Disagree on some of the items Don’t know
0%
33%
43%
24%
1%
26%
31%
42%
4%
18%
35%
43%
1 %
20%
21%
58%
3%
21%
32%
44%
Number of
items that
Egypt
refused in
the last
treaty
From 1 to 3 items From 4 to 7 items More than 7 items
67%
33%
0%
73%
27%
0%
70%
30%
0%
67%
0%
33%
70%
28%
2%
Treaty that
determined
Egypt quota
1959 treaty 1929 treaty 1970 treaty 1980 treaty Don’t know
38%
14%
3%
10%
35%
26%
14%
3%
5%
52%
25%
20%
4%
4 %
47%
19%
4%
3%
3%
71%
25%
16%
3%
5%
51%
33
Annual
Egypt quota
From 50 to 56 billion From 60 to 66 billion From 70 to 76 billion From 80 to 86 billion Don’t know
50%
13%
3%
4%
30%
40%
7%
4%
5%
44%
48%
9%
3%
8%
32%
31 %
3%
7%
10%
49 %
44%
8%
4%
8%
36% Source: calculated by authors.
The findings confirm that males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than
females. For example Egypt’s quota; the highest percentage was “50 to 56 billion” in
both faculties, but most of females did not know the Egyptian quota. Also it was
concluded that students in Faculty of Economics and Political Science have general
information on the historical aspect of the water problem between Egypt and the Nile
Basin countries and the signed treaties between them more than students in the Faculty of
Engineering.
Figure 3.8: Student’s perception on the state that tries to decrease Egypt’s
quota
Figure 3.8 indicates that the
majority of students realized
that Ethiopia is the most
influencing country. The
reason behind this attitude is
85% from Egypt’s quota
comes from this state as it is a
source state.
Source: created by authors.
Figure 3.9: Percent distribution for the supportive state
78% of the sample chose
Sudan to be the supportive
state, and they were right
because Egypt and Sudan are
the only mouth states, so they
usually support each other, also
Sudan is considered the
extension of Egypt.
Source: created by authors.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Kenya Ethiopia Sudan Eritrea don't know
3%
77%
9%1%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Ethiopia Sudan Kenya Uganda don't know
1%
78%
2% 1%
18%
34
Section 4: Knowledge of youth about water situation in Egypt
In this section, the problem of water in Egypt will be specified into the most consuming
water sectors and trying to find a solution for these sectors in order to prevent the deterioration
in water status.
Table 3.4: Sectors that consume water
Faculty of Economics
and Political Science
Faculty of
Engineering
Total
water-consuming
sectors
Agricultural sector Household sector Industrial sector
Male Female Male Female
79%
33%
7%
70%
34%
5%
69%
26%
10%
64%
33%
11%
69%
29%
9%
Agricultural
sector
Decrease rice area Import crops Change irrigation ways
21%
10%
86%
11%
9%
90%
8%
3%
94%
4%
0%
97%
9%
4%
93%
Household sector
Water pricing enactment of laws to limit the increasing in consumption increase awareness
7%
24%
90%
10%
24%
81%
8%
27%
82%
2%
38%
67%
7%
29%
80%
Industrial
sector
desalination of sea water water recycling
water pricing
the use of ground water
45%
67%
20%
20%
42%
52%
13%
17%
45%
69%
13%
23%
45%
65%
4%
7%
44%
65%
12%
19%
Source: calculated by authors.
From the above Table it was deduced that all the students either males or females
in both faculties saw that the most consuming sector of water is the agricultural sector,
and the most suitable way to decrease the amount of water that this sector consumes is to
change irrigation ways. They saw that household sector comes after agricultural sector in
35
consuming large amount of water and the most suitable solution for this was increasing
the awareness to save water. Regarding the industrial sector; all the students saw that this
sector is the least sector consuming water among the all sectors, and they also found the
solution for this sector is water recycling.
Section 5: Views to Solve Water Crisis
Finally this section contains two aspects, first: opinions of the youth regarding the
previous government actions and policies toward the problem. Second: suggested
solutions that may help to solve the problem and these problems and suggested solutions
will be divided into three parts as follows:
A: problem and Solutions for Political Dimension
Table 3.5: Political view on the crisis
Faculty of
Economics and
Political Science
Faculty of
Engineering
Total
5%
47%
48%
Perception of
Egypt
relationship
Strong Moderate Isolated
Male Female Male Female
3%
40%
57%
5%
49%
46%
5%
44%
51%
8%
55%
37%
The previous
government role
Completely agree Agree Disagree Don’t know
3%
11%
76%
10%
4%
12%
58%
26%
2%
17%
66%
15%
2%
12%
58%
28%
3%
14%
64%
19%
The Egyptian
diplomacy role
Completely agree Agree Disagree Don’t know
3%
8%
72%
17%
4%
10%
53%
33%
3 %
19%
59%
19%
0%
27%
40%
33%
3%
18%
55%
24%
State has
influence on
this problem
U.S.A China Israel
11%
0%
89%
19%
0%
81%
22%
3%
75%
38%
4%
58%
23%
3%
74%
36
Source: calculated by authors.
It is very clear from the above Table that all students saw that Egypt was separated
from Nile Basin countries. They weren’t satisfied with neither the Egyptian diplomacy
nor the previous Egyptian government in their ways to solve the water problem. They
were sure from the foreign intervention in this problem, the Israel's presence in Nile
basin countries, and their opinion was” Egypt is not ready for war on water now”.
Finally, they don’t prefer the military intervention in order to solve this problem.
B: Problem and Solutions for Economic Dimension
Table 3.6: Economic view on the crisis
Faculty of
Economics and
Political Science
Faculty of
Engineering
Total
Investment in
Nile Basin
countries
Yes No
Male Female Male Female
72%
28%
78%
22%
83%
17%
76%
24%
80%
20%
which field we
should invest
Agriculture Industrial Services
70%
30%
44%
68%
43%
32%
73%
48%
45%
79%
43%
36%
73%
45%
42%
Sending
agricultural
workers
Agree Disagree
71%
29%
67%
33%
60%
40%
65%
35%
63%
37%
Military
intervention
Yes No May be Don’t know
31%
41%
21%
7%
10%
69%
10%
11%
18%
51%
25%
6%
20%
56%
17%
7%
18%
54%
21%
7%
Egypt ready for
war on water
Yes No Not now Don’t know
27%
23%
46%
4%
7 %
44%
41%
8%
15%
19%
62%
4%
11%
31%
55%
3%
14%
26%
56%
4%
37
This will solve
the
overpopulation
Yes No Don’t know
60%
32%
8%
52%
33%
15%
44%
36%
20%
58%
32%
10%
49%
35%
16%
Source: calculated by authors.
As mentioned before, the students in both faculties disagreed on military
intervention for this problem. They preferred investment to be the suitable solution for
the water problem. Since the most important sector in Egypt is the agricultural sector
because Egypt is an agricultural country, and farmers represent 40% of the labor force,
students suggested Egypt to invest in Nile Basin countries in this field by sending farmers
to these countries as they suffer from lack of” Agricultural workers “.By this solution
Egypt may also solve the overpopulation problem (Hit two birds with one stone).
C: problem and Solutions for Social Dimension
Figure 3.10: Social view on the crisis
As it is shown from this figure
that the majority of students are
not satisfied of our social
relationships with Nile basin
countries. This was expected,
because Egyptian people were
isolated from Africans a long
time ago.
Source: created by authors.
6%
30%
56%
8%
yes
maybe
no
don't know
38
In this chapter, the main goal is to analyze the nature of relationships
between variables,and this graph will visualize the main components :
Chapter 4
Constructing the
Index
Knowledge of
Water Crisis and
Background
Characteristics
Knowledge of
Water Crisis and
Exposure to Media
Internal water
crisis in Egypt
Attitudes towards
Solving Water
Crisis
Political
Dimension
Economic
Dimension
Social
Dimension
Chapter Four
{Determinants of Knowledge of Water Crisis}
crisis}
39
Since the main goal of this study is to measure to what extent knowledge of youth
on water crisis , so an index will be constructed on knowledge of youth first before
studying the relationships.
I. Constructing the index
1. Data preparation
In this part, we will prepare the variables that will be entered in the factor analysis in
order to generate the “Knowledge of Youth” index. [11]
To create the index, we used seven questions (Q12, Q13, Q16, Q19, Q20, Q21, and
Q22) with their different categories, and each category had a code.
The questions are represented as follows:
Table 4.1: Data preparation for constructing the index
Variables Codes Binary
codes
1-Number of states
2-Mouth or Source
3-Egypt’s position
4-Treaty date
5-Annual Egypt’s
quota
Less than 5 states 1 1 From 6 to 9 states 2 0
From 10 to 11 states 3 0 More than 12 states 4 0
Mouth 1 1
Source 2 0
Completely agree on all the items 1 0
Completely disagree on all the items 2 0
Disagree on some of the items 3 1 Don’t know 4 0
1959 1 1
1929 2 0
1970 3 0
1980 4 0
Don’t know 5 0
From 50 to 56 billion 1 1
From 60 to 66 billion 2 0
From 70 to 76 billion 3 0
40
From 80 to 86 billion 4 0
Don’t know 5 0
6-Influenced state
7-Supportive state
Kenya 1 0
Ethiopia 2 1
Sudan 3 0
Eretria 4 0
Don’t know 5 0
Ethiopia 1 0
Sudan 2 1 Kenya 3 0
Uganda 4 0 Don’t know 5 0
Source: Calculated by authors.
All the previous variables were recoded as binary variables (take 1: if the student
chose the right answer and 0 otherwise).
2. Factor Analysis
Now after the preparation of the seven variables, factor analysis was done in order to
reduce these variables, and construct the index.
The results of the spss factor analysis output indicate that:
1) Three factors have eign values more than one.
2) These three factors explain around 60% of the variation.[12]
An index was created as the average of these factors .The index was transformed
from a continuous variable to a binary variable takes one if its value above the mean, and
takes zero if it is below the mean “Since its distribution is symmetric”, and finally it was
defined as (1: if the student has information on the crisis, 0 otherwise).
41
Exploring the “Knowledge of Youth” index
Table 4.2: Descriptive Measures for the Index (Knowledge of Youth)
Statistic
Knowledge of youth Mean .00
5% Trimmed Mean .04
Median .08
Std.Deviation 1.453
Minimum -4
Maximum 2
Range 6
Skewness -.387
Kurtosis -.421
Source: Calculated by authors.
The index lies between -4 and 2 with a mean of zero. The index is normal since
kurtosis is not equal to 3. The index is not affected by outliers so much since there is a
slight difference between the original mean and the 5% trimmed mean.
Figure 4.1: Box Plot for Knowledge of Youth
It is obvious from this
figure that case 29 is an
outlier since its value for
knowledge equals -4, and
we can ignore it, so the
distribution is almost
symmetric.
Source: Created by authors.
42
Figure 4.2: Normal Q-Q Plot of Knowledge of Youth
This figure reflects that
the distribution of the
index (knowledge of
youth) follows normal
distribution, as all the
points are around 45
degree line.
Source: Created by authors.
II. Knowledge of Youth and background Characteristics
Figure 4.3: Knowledge of Youth according to gender
This figure reflects that
57% of males have
information on water crisis,
compared by 38% among
females, then we can
conclude that females are
less informed on the crisis
than males.
Source: Created by authors.
{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.456
and its 95% confidence interval (.290, .717)}.
Since confidence interval of Odds Ratio doesn’t include one, then we are 95%
confident that knowledge of youth is affected by gender, so odds of males who have
information on the crisis is about 2 times odds of those who don’t have information.
In order to make sure that knowledge of youth is different regarding the gender,
two independent samples T- test was performed. The result of the analysis shows
significant difference between the two means at α=.05 which is greater than p-value
=.001.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
male female
43%
62%57%
38%don't have information
having information
43
Figure 4.4: Knowledge of Youth according to place of residence
From this figure, we can say
that the percentage of youth
who have information and lives
in rural areas is 62%.While the
percentage of those who have
information and lives in urban
areas is 49%, then we can
conclude that youth from
rural areas are more informed
than urban areas.
Source: Created by authors.
{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.586
and its 95% confidence interval (.291, 1.180)}.
With 95% confidence there is an insignificant relation between knowledge of
youth and place of residence (i.e.) they are independent.
Figure 4.5: Knowledge of Youth according to faculty
This figure shows that the
percentage of youth who have
information on the water crisis
in Faculty of Economics and
Political Science is 56%,
Compared by 49 % in Faculty
of Engineering .We can
conclude that youth in
Faculty of Economics and
Political science are more
informed than youth in
Faculty of Engineering.
Source: Created by authors.
{Odds Ratio for knowledge of youth (don't have information / having information) =.747
and its 95% confidence interval (.456, 1.223)}.
Since the confidence interval of Odds Ratio includes one, then we are 95%
confident that there is an insignificant relation between knowledge of youth and faculty
(i.e.) they are independent.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
rural urban
38%
51%
62%
49%
don't have information
having information
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Economics and Political
Science
Engineering
44%
51%56%
49%
don't have information
having information
44
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
male female male female
Economics and Political Science
Engineering
71%
51%56%
25%don't have information
have information
Figure 4.6: Knowledge of Youth according to gender controlling faculty
In Faculty of Economics
and Political science, the
percentage of males who
have information on the
crisis are 71%, while this
percentage decreased to
51% among females. In
Faculty of Engineering, the
percentage of males who
have information on the
crisis are 56%, while this
percentage decreased to
25% among females.
a. Source: Created by authors.
b. *: p-value is less than 0.0005.
{Chi-Squared Cochran's Mantel-Haenszel = 19.015 and its significance = *}.
With 95% confidence there is a conditional dependence (relation) between
knowledge of youth and gender, controlling for faculty.
Figure 4.7: Knowledge of Youth according to year of the study
This figure reflects that
57% from those who have
information are in the
fourth year followed by the
second year, third year, and
finally the first year(i.e.) the
most informed youth are in
the Fourth year.
Source: Created by authors.
{Gamma = .103 and its significance = .199}.
With 95% confidence there is an insignificant ordinal association between year of
study and knowledge of youth (i.e.) knowledge of youth isn’t affected by year of the
0%
20%
40%
60%
first year
second year
third year
fourth year
45%52%
46%
57%
don't have information
having information
45
study, and this result was expected because may be a student in the first year is more
informed than a student in the fourth year.
III. Knowledge of Youth and exposure to Media
Figure 4.8: Knowledge of Youth according to source of information
Students who exposed to
modern sources of information
are more likely to have valid
information on the crisis than
those who exposed to the
traditional ones. Regarding the
source of information, data
indicates that conferences are
considered the first to provide
valid information followed by
Internet, TV and Newspaper,
Radio, and finally Friends. As
62% of those who depend on
conferences have information.
Source: Created by authors.
It was found from the analysis at α=5% that there is an insignificant ordinal
association between source of information and knowledge of youth.
IV. The internal water crisis in Egypt
Table 4.3 shows that 70 % of those who don’t have information said agricultural
sector is the most water consuming sector, compared by 74 % who have information,
while 29% of those who don’t have information said the house hold sector ,compared by
25 % who have information.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
T.V
Internet
Newspapers
Conferences
Radio
Friends
54%
56%
54%
62%
48%
47%
have information
don’t have information
46
Table 4.3: Knowledge of Youth regarding the most consuming sector for
water
The most
consuming
sector
Knowledge of Youth
Total
Don’t have
information
Have
information
Agricultural
70%
74%
72%
Household
29%
25%
27%
Industrial
11%
6%
8%
Total
100%
100%
100%
Source: Calculated by authors.
It was found from the analysis at α=5% that there is an insignificant ordinal
association between knowledge of youth and its opinion regarding the most
consuming sector for water.
V. Attitudes towards solving water crisis
V.A: Political Dimension
Table 4.4 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 53% did not
agree on military intervention to be a suitable solution for the crisis, and this percentage
increased to 57% among those who don’t have information.
Table4. 4: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and military
intervention
Military
intervention
Knowledge of Youth
Total
Don’t have
information
Have
information
Yes 17% 20% 19%
47
No 57% 53% 55%
Maybe 19% 18% 18%
Don't know 7% 8% 7%
Total
100%
100%
100%
Source: Calculated by authors.
{Goodman & Kruskal Tau =.001 and its significant = .725}.
With 95% confidence there is an insignificant nominal association between
Knowledge of Youth and solving the crisis by military intervention.
V.B: Economic Dimension
Table 4.5 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 88%
agreed on investment in Nile Bain countries to be a suitable solution, compared by
78% of those who do not have information.
Table4. 5: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and investment in
the Basin countries
Source: Calculated by authors.
{Gamma = -.356 and its significant =.010}.
With 95% confidence there is a significant ordinal moderate negative association
between Knowledge of Youth and solving the crisis by investment (i.e.) when
information of youth on the crisis increases, they become more supporters to invest in
Nile Basin countries.
Investment
Knowledge of Youth
Total
Don’t have
information
Have
information
Yes 78% 88% 83%
No 22% 12% 17%
Total 100% 100% 100%
48
V.C: Social Dimension
Table 4.6 shows that among youth who have information on the crisis, 62% did not
agree that there is a cultural relationship between Egypt, and Nile Bain countries, while
this percentage decreased to 53% among those who don’t have information.
Table 4.6: Relation between Knowledge of Youth and their opinion on
social relations
Cultural
Relationship
Knowledge of Youth
Total
Don’t have
information
Have
information
Yes 7% 6% 7%
May be 33% 29% 31%
No 53% 62% 57%
Don't know 7% 3% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Source: Calculated by authors.
{Goodman and Kruskal Tau =.004 and its significant = .209}.
With 95% confidence there is an insignificant nominal association between
Knowledge of Youth and their opinion on the cultural relationship between Nile Basin
countries.
49
In this chapter, the main goal is to construct the “logistic model”,and
this will be performed as follows:
Chapter Five
{Logistic Model}
crisis}
50
The objective of this chapter is to study the main determinants of youth
knowledge on the water crisis using the logistic model. Our analysis will be done using
SPSS package depending on a binary logistic model. Enter method will be used where
all the variables entered together into the model. This model will be tested with a
significance level of 5%.
Our response variable is the generated index “Knowledge of Youth” whether the
person have information on the crisis or not, and the explanatory variables are
"Faculty, Gender, Age, Department, and Residence".
I. Testing for Multicollinearity
Before entering the variables into the model we have tested the multicollinearity
through Factor Analysis using Principle Component technique. We have entered five
variables to test the multicollinearity between them. These variables are: Faculty, Gender,
Age, Department and Residence.
Table 5.1: Eigen values for testing multicollinearity
Component Eigen Values
1 2.173
2 1.151
3 .834
4 .638
5 .204 a. Extraction Method: Principle Component Analysis.
b. Source: Calculated by authors.
First, we don't have Eigen value close to zero except the fifth one which
indicates the absence of multicollinearity. Second, we used the condition number
which is the root of the largest Eigen value divided by the smallest.
If this condition number > 30, so there exists multicollinearity.
Since (2.173/.204)1/2
=10.65
(λ1 / λ5)1/2
51
This assures the absence of multicollinearity. Therefore, these variables could be
entered in the model to test the main determinants of youth knowledge on water crisis.
A. Categorical variables coding
In this section, a binary logistic model will be analyzed taking into consideration
that faculty, gender, place of residence, and departments are categorical variables and
hence we defined their reference categories as follows:
Reference categories are coded zeros in all its cells, i.e.:
Department Variable: The reference category is Statistics.
Residence Variable: The reference category is Rural.
Faculty Variable: The reference category is Faculty of Economics and
Political Science.
Gender Variable: The reference category is Male.
B. Testing the goodness of fit of the model using the difference in G
Squared
Table 5.2: Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-
square
df Sig.
Step
1
Step 67.759 17 *
Block 67.759 17 *
Model 67.759 17 * a. Source: Calculated by authors.
b.*: p-value is less than 0.0005.
From the above Table, we can see that the model is significant, using 95%
confidence.
C. The observed and predicted classification of knowledge
determinants
II. Knowledge of Youth
Model
52
Table 5.3: Classification Tablea
Observed Predicted
knowledge of youth Percentage
Correct don't have
information
having
information
Step 1
knowledge
of youth
Don't have
information
110 35 75.6
Have
information
50 107 68.3
Overall Percentage 71.8
a. The cut value is .500
b. Source: Calculated by authors.
The overall correct classification is 71.8%. Among those who don’t have information,
75.6% were correctly classified. Among those who have information, 68.3%were
correctly classified.
D. The significant variables in the logistic model
Table 5.4: Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a gender(1) -1.173 .336 12.176 1 0.000 .309
age .243 .107 5.137 1 .023 1.275
residence(1) .241 .456 .279 1 .597 1.273
faculty(1) -19.567 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 .000
department 32.777 13 .002
department(1) 1.603 .664 5.827 1 .016 4.969
department(2) 2.097 .722 8.436 1 .004 8.144
department(3) 3.968 1.729 5.263 1 .022 52.854
department(4) 19.504 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 2.953E8
department(5) 20.721 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 9.977E8
department(6) 19.509 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 2.970E8
department(7) 19.647 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 3.408E8
department(8) 18.726 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 1.358E8
department(9) 21.324 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 1.824E9
department(10) 20.677 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 9.552E8
department(11) 41.233 4.843E4 .000 1 .999 8.077E17
department(12) 19.787 3.764E4 .000 1 1.000 3.920E8
53
department(13) 40.990 4.843E4 .000 1 .999 6.333E17
Constant -5.324 2.311 5.310 1 .021 .005
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: gender, age, residence, faculty, and department. b. Source: Calculated by author.
E. The Estimated model
Interpretation of the coefficients
From the previous model we noticed that variables residence and faculty are
insignificantly related to knowledge of youth, while variable department is insignificantly
related to knowledge of youth except "Statistics, Economics, and Political science”
departments in Faculty of Economics and Political Science.
log(π^/1-π^)= -5.324-1.173Female+.243 Age+.241Urban-19.567Engineering+1.603Statistics+2.097 Economics+3.968 Political Science+19.504No major in Faculty of Economics and Political Science+20.721 No major in Engineering+19.509 Electronucs+19.647Civil+18.726 Power+21.324 Bio+20.677 Architecture+41.233 Computer+19.787 Mechanical+40.990 Aerospace
EXP (B) Gender: The odds of youth to have information among females decreased by
69%, compared by males keeping all the other variables fixed.
EXP (B) Age: When age increase by one year, the odds of having information will
increase by 27 % keeping all the other variables fixed.
EXP (B) Economics: Youth in faculty of Economics and Political Science with major
Economics are more likely to have information by 8.144 times than those who are in
statistics department keeping all the other variables fixed.
EXP (B) Politics: Youth in faculty of Economics and Political Science with major political
science are more likely to have information by 53 times than those who are in statistics
department keeping all the other variables fixed.
54
Chapter 6
Conclusion
Recommendations
Economically
Politically
Socially
The internal
crisis
Chapter Six
{Conclusion and Recommendations}
55
This study assesses youth awareness on water crisis in Egypt
through many dimensions.The findings of the study indicate that:
1. Students in scientific faculties (represented by Engineering students) are less
knowledgeable than students from literature faculties (represented by Economics
and political Science students).
2. Males are more knowledgeable on the crisis than females.
3. All the students either males or females in both faculties saw that the most
consuming sector of water is the agricultural sector, and the most suitable way
to decrease the amount of water that this sector consumes is to change the
irrigation ways.
4. There is no relationship between knowledge of youth and source of information,
also there is an insignificant relationship between knowledge of youth and place
of residence. This indicates a contradiction between what was expected, and what
we concluded.
5. There is an insignificant association between year of the study and having
information which means that year of the study has no effect on knowledge of
youth.
6. Using the logistic model we found that variable gender has an effect on youth
knowledge which indicates that youth awareness may differ from being male or
female.
7. Concerning Faculty of Economics and Political Science, we found that
knowledge of youth differs from department to another from the logistic model.
Conclusion
:
56
Based on the analysis, it is necessary to recommend awareness campaigns for
youth generally and in particular youth in Scientific Faculties in order to increase
their awareness on the crisis.
The following recommendations are based on the responses of the students to
the open ended questions.
1) Economically:
After the Egyptian revolution, there is a desire from all sides to strengthen the
Economic relationships and to invest in Nile Basin countries. Investment is considered
the most suitable solution for this problem, and we may invest in many fields like the
agricultural sector. Since the most important sector in Egypt is the agricultural sector, so
Egypt may invest in this field by sending farmers to these countries, or achieve self
sufficiency of food between these countries by increasing the cultivated lands and
provide them by farmers, machines, and experience.
Some of respondents recommend an Economic integration between these
countries, for example common market and unified currency.
ب١ ز اذي ا ٠ى بن اححبد افش٠م ث االححبد االسب ٠جب ا ٠ى بن حىب الخصبد افش٠م"
".سق شخشو ع افش٠م١ حذ
2) Politically:
Activating the role of the Egyptian diplomacy toward these countries, and starting
negotiation concerning the last treaty, especially when Ethiopian Prime Minister “Meles
Zenawi” said his country would delay the ratification of the Framework treaty for the
overall Nile Basin countries until the Egyptian election of a new parliament, and a new
president in Egypt.
Many of respondents agreed on:
1. It was a political problem, especially the Egyptian foreign policy during the
previous regime which neglected these countries.
2. Some of them recommend a ministry related to African countries to strengthen
their relationships.
Recommendations
57
دي احض حخ ٠ى بن حث١ك البذ ا حى بن صاس خخص ببشئ االفش٠م١ ححذ٠ذا"
".عاللبث ع وبف االصعذ
3. In their opinion” Egypt is not ready for war on water now”, so they don’t prefer
the military intervention in order to solve this problem.
3) Socially:
The third Pope Shenouda Patriarch of
Alexandria had spoken by telephone with the
Patriarch of Ethiopia to find solutions to the
crisis, as the percentage of Christians in
Ethiopia is 62%, followed by Muslims 33%,
and others represent 5%, so the role of the
Egyptian church will appear in the following
period.
It was unexpected situation when the Egyptian delegation traveled to some of the Nile
Basin countries like Uganda and Ethiopia. They received warm welcome at the airport with
traditional Ethiopian folklore troops and Ethiopian officials, in order to pave the road for a better
relationship between these countries. The Egyptian delegation included three presidential
candidates, number of prominent political figures, including Osama Al Ghazaly Harb, the head of
Al Gabha party, Alsayed Elbadawy the head of Al Wafd party, Hussein Ibrahim of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Abdel Hakim Abdel Nasser the son of former president Gamal Abdel Nasser,
journalists ,and representatives from the January 25 Revolution Youth.
When we are talking about social relationships, we found that many of respondents
were not satisfied and recommend " فخح احاس ع دي حض ا١ ١س فمػ ع سخ احىبث
"اشعبب ا٠عب ع اسخ
58
4) The internal water crisis:
Finally we reached that the water crisis in
Egypt is not only an external crisis. Agricultural,
industrial, and household sector need a lot of
campaigns to increase the awareness of the
crisis internally. In addition other sources of
groundwater should be developed such as” Ain
Kayvara “located in the Siwa Oasis .Its water is
considered as one of the purest water in the
world, and it is much pure than Nile River water
because it is at a depth of 1000 meters from the
surface of the earth, as well as the area that
surrounding this well is suitable for agriculture.
In addition to that we may apply the new concepts like “Virtual water” which is the
amount of water needed to produce goods and services .For example to produce one kilo
of meat needs 16000 litter water. So “virtual water trade “can be a mean to increase the
efficiency of water usage, if the country suffers from water scarcity .As it can import the
most water consuming goods and export the least water consuming ones. In Egypt, the
exports of rice is 739.58 thousand tons and this causes a loss of 1718.75 million cubic
meters virtual water, so this concept have to be applied in our water policy, agriculture
policy ,and foreign trade policy.
Respondents saw that agricultural sector consumes approximately 80% of water.
They recommend changing the irrigation ways, importing the crops that consumes huge
amount of water like rice and giving farmers courses to raise the awareness of water
importance and not to be wasted. Concerning the industrial sector they recommend
“Water Recycling, Desalination of sea water, the use of groundwater, and Water pricing”.
وبج بعط اخص١بث ف جبي اضساعت حغ١ش غشق اش اسخ١شاد احبص١ اخ حسخه و١بث وب١شة "
".ا١ب عذ صساعخب، اب ف جبي اصبعت فىبج اخص١بث حسع١ش ا١ب اسخخذا ا١ب اجف١ت
59
i. English References
1. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/375184: Egypt considers promoting cooperation with Nile Basin countries, 26/3/2011
2. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/4-nile-basin-countries-sign-water-agreement: Nile basin countries sign water agreement, 2/11/2010
3. http://allafrica.com/stories/201103020161.html: Nile Basin Countries Hopeful Framework Pact to Be Signed, 25/2/2011
4. http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article137010.ece: Experts discover novel ways to tackle Egypt water crisis, 25/11/2010
5. http://www.custominsight.com/articles/random-sampling.asp: Random Sampling Overview, 12/11/2010
6. http://www.dailyethiopia.com/index.php?aid=770: Nile basin states water Ministers to meet in Ethiopia next week,20/11/2010
7. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/9263/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-revolution-knocks-Nile-Basin-doors.aspx: Egypt's revolution knocks Nile Basin doors, 22/12/2010
8. http://www.mfa.gov.eg: The Egyptian rights to the Nile waters is an undisputable red line, 11/1/2011
9. http://www.nilebasin-knowledgemap.com/: Nile Basin Knowledge Map,15/4/2011
10. http://www.sis.gov.eg: New phase of cooperation among Nile Basin countries, 11/1/2011
11. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/3999/how-to-create-an-index: How to create an index, 19/4/2011
List of
References
60
12. http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/principal-components-factor-analysis/:Principal Components and Factor Analysis, 19/4/2011
13. http://washafrica.wordpress.com/2010/07/02/nile-basin-water-crisis-emerging/: Nile basin water crisis emerging, 1/11/2010
ii. Arabic References
14. http://www.ahram.org.eg: السابقإىمال إفريقيا أحد أخطاء النظام , 5/4/2011
15. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/03/29/143430.html: دول حوض النيل تقترح على 12/5/2011 ,مصر والسودان إنشاء بنك للمياه
16. http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0A440CB2-E035-4868-A34D-6A756FB847B9.htm: 1/5/2011 ,موارد دول حوض النيل المائية واألرضية
17. http://www.al-khayma.com/investigations/egypt_15052010.htm: مصر ودول حوض11/4/2011,األزمة وأسبابيا… النيل
18. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/436666: ووثائق . ..أنقى من النيل« كيف ارة»مياه 14/5/2011,تتحدث عن نير في الصحراء الغربية
19. http://www.alwafd.org: آن اآلوان أن نعود للسودان , 5/4/2011 20. http://forum.egypt.com/arforum/E6-8811.html: دول حوض النيل االندوج و , 22/4/2011 21. http://kenanaonline.com/users/belvedere/topics/66890/posts/124789: االتف اقيات
مع دول حوض النيل التي وقعتيا مصر , 15/4/2011 22. http://main.omandaily.om/node/18184 :اتف اقية عنتيبي , 9/4/2011
23. http://www.mfti.gov.eg: تجاره مصر مع التكتالت الجغرافيو , 1/3/2011
24. http://www.shorouknews.com/ContentData.aspx? ID=232238: ازمو مياه النيل مصر 5/11/2010 ,ق لقة من عزلتيا المتزايدة
بيئو حوض النيل-الصراع الدولي علي المياه, 2002يناير,محمد سلمان .25
االقتصاد والعلوم كليو ,2010,(محددات مشاركو الشباب في العمل التطوعي)سماح زكريا احمد عبد الغني .26جامعو الق اىره,السياسيو
61
i. Factor Analysis for constructing an index
recode_s
upportive
_state
recode_influ
enced_state
recode_egypt
_quota
recde_treaty
_year
recode_eg
ypt
_position
recde_st
ates
_number
Mouth
_or_sourc
e
recode_supportive_stat
e
1.000 .417 .212 .230 .112 .074 -.012
recode_influenced_state .417 1.000 .164 .137 .094 .080 -.059
recode_egypt_quota .212 .164 1.000 .335 .243 .246 -.073
recde_treaty_year .230 .137 .335 1.000 .211 .064 .018
recode_egypt_position .112 .094 .243 .211 1.000
recde_states_number .074 .080 .246 .064 .104 1.000 -.106
mouth_or_source -.012 -.059 -.073 .018 -.071 -.106 1.000
Communalities
Initial Extraction
recode_supportive_state 1.000 .696
recode_influenced_state 1.000 .724
recode_egypt_quota 1.000 .580
recde_treaty_year 1.000 .585
recode_egypt_position 1.000 .420
recde_states_number 1.000 .470
mouth_or_source 1.000 .669
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Appendices
62
Total Variance Explained
Component Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %
1 1.958 27.977 27.977 1.958 27.977 27.977
2 1.142 16.308 44.285 1.142 16.308 44.285
3 1.043 14.901 59.186 1.043 14.901 59.186
4 .895 12.787 71.973
5 .782 11.165 83.138
6 .612 8.737 91.875
7 .569 8.125 100.000
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Component Matrix
a
Component
1 2 3
recode_supportive_state .184 .813 -.035
recode_influenced_state .029 .844 .100
recode_egypt_quota .714 .156 .213
recde_treaty_year .713 .191 -.199
recode_egypt_position .636 -.026 .122
recde_states_number .313 -.003 .610
mouth_or_source .103 -.064 -.809
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization
a. Rotation converged in 5 iterations . Component Transformation Matrix
Component 1 2 3
1 .747 .617 .248
2 -.362 .690 -.627
3 .558 -.379 -.738
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser
Normalization.
63
ii. Two independent samples”T-Test”
Group Statistics
gender N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error
Mean
knowledge of youth male 231 1.57 .496 .033
female 120 1.38 .487 .045
Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test for Equality of
Variances
t-test for Equality of Means
F Sig. t df Sig. (2-
tailed)
Mean
Difference
knowledge of youth Equal
variances
assumed
3.529 .061 3.442 348 .001 .191
Equal
variances not
assumed
3.461 2.443E
2
.001 .191
iii. Factor Analysis for Multicollinearity Test
Correlation Matrix
age department residence faculty gender
Correlation Age 1.000 .083 -.119 .193 -.209
department .083 1.000 .086 .788 -.405
residence -.119 .086 1.000 .100 .052
faculty .193 .788 .100 1.000 -.435
gender -.209 -.405 .052 -.435 1.000
Communalities
Initial Extraction
age 1.000 .521
department 1.000 .807
residence 1.000 .632
faculty 1.000 .835
gender 1.000 .528
Extraction Method: Principal Component
Analysis.
64
Total Variance Explained
Component Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared
Loadings
Rotation Sums of Squared
Loadings
Total % of
Variance
Cumulati
ve %
Total % of
Variance
Cumulative
%
Total % of
Varian
ce
Cumulati
ve %
1 2.173 43.460 43.460 2.173 43.460 43.460 2.157 43.146 43.146
2 1.151 23.022 66.482 1.151 23.022 66.482 1.167 23.337 66.482
3 .834 16.676 83.159
4 .638 12.767 95.926
5 .204 4.074 100.000
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Component Matrix
a
Component
1 2
age .326 -.644
department .875 .206
residence .078 .791
faculty .904 .136
gender -.692 .223
Extraction Method: Principal Component
Analysis.
a. 2 components extracted.
Rotated Component Matrix
a
Component
1 2
age .244 -.679
department .893 .096
residence .175 .775
faculty .914 .022
gender -.659 .307
65
Extraction Method: Principal Component
Analysis.
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser
Normalization.
a. Rotation converged in 3 iterations.
iv. Logistic Model
Case Processing Summary
Unweighted Casesa N Percent
Selected Cases Included in Analysis 315 63.0
Missing Cases 185 37.0
Total 500 100.0
Unselected Cases 0 .0
Total 500 100.0
a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of
cases.
Dependent Variable Encoding
Original Value Internal Value
don't have information 0
having information 1
66
Categorical Variables Codings
Freque
ncy
Parameter coding
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)
departm
ent
Statistics 52 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Economic
s
59 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Political
Science
49 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
without
major
departme
nt in
FEPS
10 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Electronic
s &
Communi
cation
Engineeri
ng
37 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Civil
engineeri
n
42 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Power &
Electrical
machine
20 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00
0
.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Bio 9 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
67
engineeri
ng,Medic
al, &
System
Architectu
re
14 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Computer
engineeri
ng
2 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Mechanic
al Power
engineeri
ng
16 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Aviation
&
Aerospac
e
engineeri
ng
1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00
0
.000 .000 .000
Petroleu
m
engineeri
ng
2 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000 .000 .000
Mechanic
al design
&
1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.00
0
.000
68
Block 0: Beginning Block
Observed Predicted
knowledge of youth Percentage
Correct don't have
information
having
information
Step 0 knowledge of youth don't have information 0 146 .0
having information 0 157 100.0
Overall Percentage 51.9
a. Constant is included in the model. b. The cut value is .500
Productio
n
Mining 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 1.000
residenc
e
rural 37 .000
urban 278 1.000
faculty Economic
s and
Political
Science
170 .000
Engineeri
ng
145 1.000
gender male 141 .000
female 174 1.000
69
Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant .075 .115 .423 1 .515 1.078
Variables not in the Equation
a
Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables gender(1) 13.110 1 .000
Age 6.235 1 .013
residence(1) .700 1 .403
faculty(1) .358 1 .550
department 44.214 14 .000
department(1) .665 1 .415
department(2) 4.879 1 .027
department(3) 2.736 1 .098
department(4) 5.042 1 .025
department(5) 9.048 1 .003
department(6) 1.154 1 .283
department(7) 2.665 1 .103
department(8) 6.236 1 .013
department(9) .003 1 .955
department(10) 4.057 1 .044
department(11) 1.624 1 .203
department(12) .005 1 .944
department(13) 1.624 1 .203
department(14) 1.233 1 .267
a. Residual Chi-Squares are not computed because of redundancies.
Block 1: Method = Enter
Model Summary
Step -2 Log
likelihood
Cox & Snell R
Square
Nagelkerke R
Square
1 351.088a .201 .268
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 20 because
maximum iterations has been reached. Final solution cannot
be found.
70
eQuestionnair.V
جامعة القاهرة
كلية االقتصاد و العلوم السياسية
قسم االحصاء
ىقبط ذ عشفخ ادساك شجبة جبعخ اىقبشح ىشنيخ
االصخ اىاقعخ ث صش ده حض اىب ف صش
اىو
2010/2011اىغخ
71
: ).......(االسخبسة سل
خاله ز االعزبسح ح طالة ف ميخ االقزصبد اىعي اىغبعخ ، ق ثجع ثببدرغزخذ ثبىطجع ثببد ز االعزبسح عشخ ى 2011/ 2010اىزخشج ىعب العذاد ششع
ف غش اغشاض اىجحث اىعي
أعئيخ شخصخ :األهاىقغ
:اىع -1
)) أث -2 ) ( روش -1
.............................:……………………………اىعش -2
ب طجعخ اىطقخ اىز شبد فب ؟ -3
( )ش احع -2 ( )اش٠ف -1
:اىنيخ -4
( ( )6 5 اسؤا١إ اخم ) س١بس١تالخصبد ع -1
( ) (6اسؤاي إ اخم) ذست -2
اىشعجخ -5
( ) فشسب -3 ( ) اج١ض -2 ( ) عشب -1
).....................................................................( اىزخصص اىشئغ -6
اىذساعخاىغخ -7
( )افشلت اثب١ت -3 ( ) افشلت األ -2 ( ) اعذاد -1
) ( افشلت اشابعت -5 ) ( افشلت اثبثت - 4
72
دس عبئو اإلعال:اىثباىقغ
عيبد ع اص اىب ف صش؟ و ىذل -8
( 11اخم إ اسؤاي ) ( )ال -2 ) ( ع -1
(غح ثزعذد االجبثبد )ب صذس عيبرل ع االص ؟ -9
) ( اصحف -3 ) ( االخشج – 2 ) ( حفض٠ -1
) (األصذلبء -6 ) ( االراعت -5) ( ؤحشاث -4
……………(اروشب)أخش - 7
و قبذ ريل اىعبئو ثبقش اىضع ثشنو مبف ؟ -10
) (ال -3 ( )ب ا حذ - 2 ) ( ع -1
برا رعي ع االص ؟ -11
...........................................................................................................................
................................................................................................................
األصخ اىاقعخ عيبد اىشجبة اىعبخ ع ده حض اىوقبط : اىقغ اىثبىث
ث
........................................................................؟ ب عذد ده حض اىو -12
و صش دىخ صت أ جع؟ -13
) ( بع -2 ) (صب -1
..…………………………ب عذد االرفبقبد اىز رذ ث ده حض اىو؟ -14
.........................................؟متى كانت اخر اتفاقيه تمت بين دول حوض النيل - 15
ارفبقخ رذ ث ده حض اىو؟ب قف صش آخش -16
) ( عبسظت حبب ع و ابد -2) ( افمت حبب ع و ابد -1
( 18 ١17اخم ا اسؤا) ) ( عبسظت ع بعط ابد -3
) (ال اعشف -4
.…………………………….........…اىز ر االخزالف عيب؟ب عذد اىجد -17
73
ب سأل ف اعزشاض صش عي؟ و نل رمش ز اىجد، -18
...........................................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................
ب االرفبقخ اىز حذدد حصخ صش ب اىو؟ -19
) ( 1971احفبل١ت - 3) ( 1919احفبل١ت - 2) ( 1959احفبل١ت -1
) (ال اعشف -5) ( 1981احفبل١ت –4
طجقب ىز االرفبق ب حصخ صش اىغ ب اىو ؟ -20
اى
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
يبس زش نعت 56 50 1
يبس زش نعت 66 60 2
يبس زش نعت 76 70 3
يبس زش نعت 86 80 4
ال اعشف 5
ثئنبب اىزبثشعي حصخ صش رخفضب؟ب اىذىخ اىز -21
) ( اسدا -3) ( أث١ب١ب -2 ) ( و١١ب -1
) (ال اعشف -5) ( اس٠خش٠ب -4
اىغبذح ىصش ده حض اىو ؟ب اىذىخ -22
) ( و١١ب -3 ) (اسدا -2 ) ( أث١ب١ب -1
) (ال اعشف -5) ( أغذا -4
سأ اىشجبة ف اىجبت اىغبع ىز االصخ : اىقغ اىشاثع
ب سأل ف عالقخ صش ثذه حض اىو ؟ -23
74
) ( صش عضت ع دي حض ا١ -3 ) ( خسطت -2 ) (ل٠ت -1
حو أصزب ع ده حض ف اىغبثقخ و أذ افق عي ب قبذ ث اىحنخ اىصشخ -24
اىو؟
) ( افكأ -2 ) (افك بشذة أ -1
) (اعشف ال -4 ) (غ١ش افك -3
و أذ افق عي ب قبذ ث اىذثيبعخ اىصشخ ف حو أصزب ع ده حض اىو؟ -25
) ( افكأ -2 ) (افك بشذة أ -1
) ( ال اعشف - 4 ) ( غ١ش افك -3
و رعزقذ ف سأل اىشخص ثب بك دىخ خبسجخ رؤثش عي ده حض اىو ف شنيزب -26
ع صش؟
) ( حذ ب إ -2 ( 17اسؤاي اخم إ) ) ( ع -1
) (ال اعخمذ ره -3
؟ف سال ب ز اىذىخ -27
) (اص١ -2 ) ( أش٠ىب -1
) ( حشو١ب -4 ) ( إسشائ١ -3
بعجب ىز األصخ؟ حو و رش أ اىزذخو اىعغنش-28
) ( ال -2 (19اخم إ اسؤاي ) ( )ع -1
) ( ال اعشف -4 ) ( حذ ب إ -3
و صش غزعذح ف اىذخه ف حشة عي اىب؟ -29
) ( ال -2 ) ( ع -1
) ( ال اعشف -4 ) ( ره الج ١س ف -3
75
سأ اىشجبة ف حو ز االصخ اىبحخ االقزصبدخ: اىقغ اىخبظ
ده حض اىو عف حو اىشني ؟ فاالعزثبس إو رعزقذ -30
) (ال - 2( 31اسؤاي إاخم ) ) ( ع -1
(غح ثزعذد االجبثبد) ا جبه ؟ ف -31
) ( اصبعت -1 ( 31ي اسؤا إاخم )) ( اضساعت -1
...................اخش -4) ( خذبثا -3
برا ع اسعبه عبى صساع صش ىذه حض اىو ؟ - 32
) ( أافكال -1 ( 33 اسؤاي إاخم )) ( أافك -1
صش ؟ ف اىغنبشني اىزضخ رىل حو ف و ع -33
) (ال اعشف -3 ) ( ال -1 ) (ع -1
حو ز االصخ اىجبت االجزبع سأ اىشجبة ف: اىقغ اىغبدط
و رش ا جذ راصو فنش ث صش ده حض اىو؟ -34
) ( ا حذ ب -1 ) ( ع -1
) ( ال اعشف -4 ) (ال -3
ب سؤزل اىشخصخ ف حو اىشنيخ؟ -35
............................................................................................................
..................................................................................................
قبط إدساك اىشجبة ىزذس ضع اىب ف صش : اىقغ اىغبثع
؟ ف صش اىقطبعبد اعزالمب ىيب أمثش ب -36
) ( ضساعامطبع ا -1
( ) بصي ا -1
( ) صبعامطبع ا -3
76
اىقطبع اىضساع ؟ اىب ف اىحيه ىشني ب – 37
) ( األسص اضسعت اسبحتحم١ -1
( ) ١بث ا١ب اسخخذ ف اضساعاسخ١شاد احبص١ اخبسج خم١ و -1
) ( الريتغير طرق -3
(.......................................اروشب)أخش -4
قطبع اىبصه؟ اىب ف اىحيه ىشني ب -38
) ( حسع١ش ا١ب -1
) ( س اما١ حذ ص٠بد االسخالن -1
) ( خشش١ذ االسخالن اخع١ت ص٠بدة -3
(.......................................اروشب)أخش -4
؟ قطبع اىصبعاىب اىحيه ىشني اىب ف -39
) ( اعاده تدوير المياه -2 ) ( تحليه مياه البحر -1
) ( استخدام المياه الجوفيه -4 ) ( تسعير المياه -3