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TRANSCRIPT
AAPA Safety Briefing
Martin Eran-Tasker
Technical Director
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
10h COSCAP-NA
Steering Committee
Guilin, China
13-15 April 2010
Overview
• Asia Pacific aviation
• Current challenges
• Safety
• AAPA efforts
AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
• Regional trade association
• Current members include 15 major
international airlines based in Asia
Pacific
• Open to all scheduled international
airlines based in Asia Pacific region
• Committed to promoting sustainable
growth of the aviation industry serving
both passenger and freight needs
• Permanent secretariat headquartered in
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
• Representation in Washington and
Brussels
always open to new members
• Diverse geographic region
• Home to 4 billion people
- 62% of the world’s population
• Generates 27% of global GDP
• Wide range of income levels
• Dynamic economies leading the
global recovery
• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor to economic and social development
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Aviation
Data: 2009 Estimate Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
US$ 128 billion revenue
647 million passengers
421 million domestic
226 million international
15 million tonnes of cargo
4,300 aircraft
Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:
29% of global passenger traffic
40% of global cargo traffic
Improving global economic outlook, led by
developing Asian economies
• Rebuilding damaged balanced sheets, working towards
profitability
• Aviation projected to lose in 2009 USD 9.4b with USD
2.8b in 2010
• Fuel price remains volatile
• Future aviation growth cautiously optimistic
Airlines response to the downturn
• Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to lower demand
• Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff costs, retrenchment as a last resort
• Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, some deferrals of new deliveries
• Conserve cash, strengthen balance sheet
• Working with industry partners to reduce unnecessary costs
Airlines focused on survival whilst
preserving ability to respond to the upturn
Future growth postponed
Significant implications for investment
and capacity management, throughout
the value chain
Loss of two years of previously anticipated growth
Source: IATA
Long term growth prospects still bright
Source: Airbus
Asia Pacific’s share of world traffic
will keep on growing
Safety
Asia Pacific: regulatory perspectives
• Diverse region: multiple governments and regulators
• Need for multilateral cooperation
• Harmonisation is more about sharing best practices before legislating, not about resolving differences after unilaterally imposed regulations
• Positive bias towards consensus, but sometimes slows the process
• Institutional framework remains fragmented, although APEC and ASEAN do touch on aviation policy issues
Asia Pacific still lacks bloc negotiating power
Safety
• ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme
- Low regional compliance to ICAO Annexes
• FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme
- Downgrade to Cat 2 – Indonesia & Philippines
- Others under consideration
• EC Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA)
• EU Operational ban – “Blacklisting”
• Increase in regional ramp inspections
• Safety Management Systems – Jan 09
• Media reporting and perceptions
• One of the safest years in aviation history
• One major accident for every two million flights
• 25% fewer than the average for recent years
• One third involved freighter aircraft
• One third occurred during the approach and landing
phase
• One quarter were due to runway over-runs
• Only one major accident involving a carrier based in the
Asia Pacific region
Observations: Safety Performance in 2009
Aviation Safety – Media Focus
Global Safety Performance Review
Industry Safety Record
Western-built jet aircraft
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Major Accidents 18 18 15 14 17 12 2
Accident Rate^ 0.78 0.76 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.46 -
Fatal Accidents 5 8 8 7 10 9 1
Fatalities 235 757 549 576 396 414 90
^ per million sectors
* Year to date 5 April
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ma
jor A
ccid
en
t R
ate
s (
pe
r m
il se
cto
rs)
Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates by Operator Region 2001 - 2009
3-year moving averages
World IATA North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA
Safety performance – by operator region
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ma
jor A
ccid
en
t R
ate
s (
pe
r m
il se
cto
rs)
Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates Asia Pacific Regional Breakdown 2001- 2009
3-year moving averages
Asia Pacific total AAPA P.R. China India Others
Safety performance – ASPAC region
AAPA Efforts
AAPA Safety Strategy
• Enhance safety in the Asia Pacific region
– senior management commitment, SMS, cost-effective training
packages/technology, just culture, language proficiency, avoid duplication
• Engage regulators and industry safety stakeholders
– Encourage effective oversight, support the establishment of a regional
safety regulatory body, forums and dialogue sessions
– Encourage effective and timely safety investigations
• Safety data management and analysis
– Develop key safety performance indicators, analytical tools, threat and
error management, and risk management assessment tools
• Communicate on regional safety performance and action plans
– Act as a regional safety spokesman and offer a regional viewpoint
AAPA Safety Focus
• Flight Operations Safety Working Group
- Meets twice per year
- Comprises Heads of Safety
- Open door policy to ASPAC carriers
• Data sharing, lessons learnt , review of incidents and
causal factors
• Cabin Safety Task Force - new
• Safety Management Systems implementation
• Safety surveys
• Regional risk assessment
AAPA Safety Focus 2009/2010
• Wildlife hazards
- Cost industry USD 1.5b per annum
- Problematic airports – DEL – PEN – SGN –BKK
- Need for a regional forum
• TCAS RA
• Ground safety
• Runway Safety - Need for a regional forum
• Developing a “Just culture” implementation best
practice document
• Safety Performance indicators
• Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 29-30 Sep 2010
- Venue – Manila - Host Philippines Airlines
AAPA Projects
Safety Performance Indicators
• Better manage operational safety performance and
reduce associated costs
• Identify, document, and measure “leading edge”
safety performance metrics
• Proactive methodology to enable timely identification
of escalating risk
• Safety performance management tool
• Applicable to all SMS Stakeholder organizations
• Safety Performance Indicators pilot
- Philippine Airlines + 1
Finally
Aviation remains the safest mode
of transportation
• Aviation is at the heart of global economic development
• Asia Pacific aviation maintains a very good safety record
• Need to strengthen regional safety oversight and make better use of available regulatory resources
• Acceptable levels of safety performance can only be achieved through transparency, collaboration and cooperation
• Asia Pacific carriers safety performance continues to improve and is comparable to industry standards.
• Strong reservations about unilateral imposition of operational
bans on airlines, and effects of category downgrading of
national authorities
www.aapairlines.org
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa
Jalan Sultan Ismail
Kuala Lumpur 50250
MALAYSIA
Tel: +60 3 2145 5600
Fax: +60 3 2145 2500
Ground Safety
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Others
Aircraft-to-Aircraft
FOD
Aircraft-to-Facilities
Aircraft-to-GSE
Loading
Aircraft-to-Vehicles
Number of Incidents
Typ
es
Ground Incidents by Type(33rd vs 34th FOSWG)
Jul - Dec 2009 Jan - Jun 2009
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
DEL SFO JNB BOM LAX MXP CDG AMS ANC FRA
Inci
de
nt
Ra
tes
(pe
r 1
,00
0 s
ect
ors
)
Airport
Ground Incidents by Airport
TCAS - RA
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00
KUL
HKG
SIN
TPE
LAX
SFO
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
FIR
/ A
ero
dro
me
TCAS Incident Rates by FIR
Bird Hazards
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
SIN
LHR
BKK
PVG
PEN
CGK
HAN
SGN
TAO
DEL
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Air
po
rts
Non-Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
SIN
KUL
HKT
FRA
JFK
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Air
po
rts
Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport
Bird Hazards
• A number of airports in the region demonstrated
consistently high bird strike rate:
DEL PEK MNL
SGN BKK CGK
PEN