aaii presentation 111111 - adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. the author and/or speaker has...

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Strategic Investing Fred Richards AAII –Las Vegas November 11, 2011

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Page 1: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Stra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g

Fre

d R

ich

ard

s

AA

II –

Las

Ve

gas

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

Page 2: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Dis

cla

ime

r

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g2

The

con

tent

of t

his

pres

enta

tion

is fo

r th

e ed

ifica

tion

of th

e au

dien

ce a

nd

has

not b

een

endo

rsed

, no

r ap

prov

ed o

f, by

any

of t

he p

erso

ns,

com

pani

es,

nor

web

site

s m

entio

ned

here

in,

or d

urin

g th

e co

urse

of t

his

pres

enta

tion.

The

aut

hor

and/

or s

peak

er h

as a

ttem

pted

to

verif

y al

l inf

orm

atio

n bu

t doe

s no

t tak

e an

y re

spon

sibi

lity

for

any

actio

n w

hich

a m

embe

r of

any

aud

ienc

e (b

oth

in p

erso

n or

in a

sub

sequ

ent

venu

e) m

akes

of t

he in

form

atio

n w

hich

is

pre

sent

ed h

erei

n.

Res

ults

obt

aine

d in

prio

r ye

ars

are

no g

uara

ntee

of r

esul

ts e

ither

this

yea

r or

in th

e fu

ture

.

You

an

d y

ou

alo

ne

are

resp

on

sib

le f

or

any

dec

isio

ns

you

mak

e b

ased

u

po

n t

he

info

rmat

ion

ob

tain

ed d

uri

ng

th

e co

urs

e o

f th

is p

rese

nta

tio

n.

Fre

d R

icha

rds .

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

Page 3: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

•W

e g

rate

fully

ack

no

wle

dge

th

e d

ata

pro

vid

ed

by

vari

ou

s so

urc

es

in t

his

pre

sen

tati

on

an

d

ha

ve id

en

tifi

ed

on

ea

ch c

ha

rt t

he

so

urc

e f

rom

wh

ich

th

e c

ha

rts

we

re o

bta

ine

d.

•S

pe

cia

l th

an

ks t

o M

ark

et

Ne

ws

Inte

rna

tio

na

l a

nd

Ha

ver

An

aly

tics

.

•C

urr

en

t A

gri

cult

ure

da

ta c

ou

rte

sy o

f P

roFa

rme

r.co

m.

Ack

no

wle

dge

me

nts

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g3

Page 4: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Wh

at’

s y

ou

r in

ve

stm

en

t g

oa

l?

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g4

Page 5: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Are

yo

u e

lep

ha

nt

hu

nti

ng

?

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g5

Page 6: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

OR

are

yo

u s

ee

kin

g b

ug

s a

nd

fle

as?

Th

e a

nsw

er

de

term

ine

s yo

ur

lon

g-r

un

in

vest

me

nt

succ

ess

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

gSl

ide

6

Page 7: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Th

e c

on

fusi

on

insp

ire

d b

y h

op

e!

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g7

Page 8: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Str

ate

gic

In

vest

ing

’s M

issi

on

Sta

tem

en

t

•Fo

cus

on

sto

cks

wit

h in

cre

asi

ng

re

ven

ue

s a

nd

pro

fits

.

•Se

ek

Co

mp

eti

tive

wa

lls

or

“Mo

ats

•Is

th

e c

om

pa

ny

an

inn

ova

tor?

•W

he

re d

o y

ou

ra

nk

the

Ma

na

ge

me

nt?

•D

o t

he

y h

ave

a m

ea

nin

gfu

l st

ake

in

th

e

com

pa

ny?

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g8

Page 9: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Succ

ess

re

qu

ire

s u

nd

ers

tan

din

g:

•M

ajo

r tr

en

ds

in e

con

om

ics

tha

t ca

n a

ffe

ct m

ark

ets

•A

sse

t a

lloca

tio

n t

imin

g s

tra

teg

ies

•P

olit

ica

l re

alit

ies

•D

em

og

rap

hic

s

•T

he

co

nce

pt

of

mo

me

ntu

m in

tra

din

g

•T

he

re

qu

ire

me

nt

for

du

e d

ilige

nce

be

fore

inve

stin

g

•T

he

ne

ed

fo

r a

dis

cip

line

d a

pp

roa

ch t

o s

tock

s

•A

n a

pp

reci

ati

on

fo

r in

no

vati

on

th

at

will

aff

ect

th

e

futu

re

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g9

Page 10: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Do

es

it h

ave

po

ten

tia

l?

•R

ad

io/T

V/R

ad

ar/

Son

ar

•Tr

an

spo

rta

tio

n

•M

ed

icin

e/F

itn

ess

/Ge

ria

tric

s/Lo

ng

te

rm c

are

•P

rod

uct

ivit

y –

Xe

rox

–W

al-

Ma

rt -

Am

azo

n

•Fo

od

–M

cDo

na

ld’s

•B

iote

ch –

Na

no

tech

no

log

y –

Fu

sio

n p

ow

er

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

0

Page 11: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

1

Page 12: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Bri

ef

His

tory

of

Da

d’s

& M

ine

•R

ich

ard

s E

lect

ro F

en

ce

•A

lum

inu

m s

trip

s fo

r w

ind

ow

s

•V

ari

ou

s ty

pe

s o

f e

lect

ron

ic s

wit

che

s

•C

art

er

Ph

on

e /

AT

T /

We

ste

rn E

lect

ric

•R

oll

ing

su

itca

ses

•E

CM

de

vic

es

incl

ud

ing

Ra

da

r C

orr

ela

tor

•In

terc

ha

ng

ea

ble

lo

ckin

g c

yli

nd

ers

•V

ing

©C

ard

… m

ech

an

ica

l o

r e

lect

ron

ic

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

2

Page 13: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

INN

OV

AT

ION

OR

AD

AP

TAT

ION

Vis

ica

lc v

s. L

otu

s 1

23

vs.

Exc

el

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

3

Page 14: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

EC

ON

OM

IC I

ND

ICA

TO

RS

AN

D

MA

RK

ET

OV

ER

VIE

W

Fre

d R

ich

ard

s

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

4

Page 15: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Frid

ay

clo

se 1

1/8

/20

11

Th

e M

ark

ets

Inv

est

or’

s B

usi

ne

ss D

ail

Su

mm

ary

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

5

Page 16: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

IBD

®C

urre

nt O

utlo

ok

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

6

Page 17: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Acc

um

ula

tio

n/D

istr

ibu

tio

n

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g1

7N

ove

mb

er

11

, 2

01

1

Page 18: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Inst

itu

tio

na

l Bu

yin

g -

20

11

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

gSl

ide

18

Page 19: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Th

e B

ig B

oys

Att

itu

de

ab

ou

t th

e

Eco

no

my

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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ic I

nve

stin

gSl

ide

19

Page 20: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Vo

lati

lity

rem

ain

s h

igh

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

© S

tra

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ic I

nve

stin

gSl

ide

20

Page 21: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Sim

ple

Tim

ing

In

dic

ato

rs (

STI)

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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ic I

nve

stin

g2

1

Page 22: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

NA

SD

AQ

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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nve

stin

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ide

22

Page 23: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

S&

P 5

00

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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ic I

nve

stin

gSl

ide

23

Page 24: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Fu

ture

ea

rnin

gs

fore

cast

s vi

a N

AS

DA

Q

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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ic I

nve

stin

g2

4

Page 25: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Wo

rds

of

Wis

do

m f

rom

Ha

rva

rd

•Yo

u c

an

no

t b

eli

eve

an

yth

ing

yo

u r

ea

d i

n t

he

•N

ew

Yo

rk T

ime

s

•a

nd

•T

he

Wa

ll S

tre

et

Jou

rna

l

•(M

SNB

C,

CN

N,

CN

BC

an

d o

the

rs)

•T

he

y a

ll lie

!•

Will

iam

A S

ah

lma

n,

Pro

fess

or

an

d A

sso

cia

te D

ea

n,

HB

S, M

ay

20

11

, in

Da

llas

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 26: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Se

ein

g r

ea

lity

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

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ic I

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stin

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ide

26

Page 27: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 28: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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8

Page 29: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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be

r 1

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20

11

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Page 30: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

Up

aft

er

3 m

on

ths

of

de

clin

e

No

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be

r 1

1,

20

11

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ic I

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Page 31: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 32: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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be

r 1

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Page 33: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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be

r 1

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Page 34: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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Page 35: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 36: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

On

ly $

1.2

99

Tri

llio

n …

wh

at’

s G

AA

P?

No

vem

be

r 1

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20

11

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Page 37: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 38: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 39: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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20

11

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Page 40: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 41: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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ic I

nve

stin

g4

1

Page 42: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

De

leve

rag

ing

an

d i

ts e

ffe

cts

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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tra

teg

ic I

nve

stin

g4

2

Page 43: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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ic I

nve

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g4

3

Page 44: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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be

r 1

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20

11

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Page 45: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

No

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be

r 1

1,

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11

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5

Page 46: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

10

ye

ar

US

Tre

asu

ry

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be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 47: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

30

Ye

ar

Tre

asu

ry

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vem

be

r 1

1,

20

11

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Page 48: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 49: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 50: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 51: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 52: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 53: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 54: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 55: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 56: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 57: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 58: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 59: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 60: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 62: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 63: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 64: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 65: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 67: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 69: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 70: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 72: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 73: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 74: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 75: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 78: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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Page 80: AAII Presentation 111111 - Adrich · 2012. 5. 19. · presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any

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