aaii bearish sentiment and jsco pain index
TRANSCRIPT
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Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t and
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
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10.0%
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40.0%
50.0%
S&P
6 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev This week's bearish readingNormal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 yearsIn 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish
sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated
by the black dots), share prices rose hi h
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Dec
-62
Dec
-63
Dec
-64
Dec
-65
Dec
-66
Dec
-67
Dec
-68
Dec
-69
Dec
-70
Dec
-71
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-72
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-73
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-74
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-75
Dec
-76
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-77
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-78
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-79
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-80
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-81
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-82
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-83
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-84
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-85
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-86
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-87
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-88
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-89
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-90
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-91
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-92
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-93
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-94
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-95
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-96
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-99
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Dec
-01
Dec
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Dec
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Dec
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Dec
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Dec
-08
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
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DJI
A
JSCO Pain Index µ DJIA