a world in motion how supply chain managers snap out of crisis€¦ · freight forwarder logistics...
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A World in Motion – How Supply Chain Managers Snap out of Crisis
Prof. Dr. Thomas Wimmer, ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain
A World in Motion?
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Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
New Top Player in the Markets
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Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
Source: IMF (2015)
RANKING BIP 2014
Economic Growth of PR China is Decreasing
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Bild: Creative Commons von Man-ucommons, Lizenz: CC BY 2.0
Economical Power of the U.S.A. is Growing up
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Bild: Creative Commons von Man-ucommons, Lizenz: CC BY 2.0
Economical Power of Romania is Slightly but Constantly Growing
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2013 + 3,5% 2014 + 1,9% 2015 + 2,2 … 2,5%
Changes in the German Society
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von Marco Verch (Post-Streik in Köln vor Ver.di) CC BY 2.0
Changes in the Global Society
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„LE Eithne Operation Triton“ von Irish Defence Forces - Lizenziert unter CC BY 2.0
Changes in Technology
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Volatility of the German Economy
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http://www.finanzen.net/index/Dax
Economic Growth Continues
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15e 16e 17e
EU China USA World
Source: IMF (2015), World Economic Outlook.
Real growth year on year in %
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
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Forecast
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Internet of Things & Services
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Beyond the “Smart Factory”, the processes of production and logistics are interconnected across company borders.
Material flows can be optimized, potential mistakes avoided in advance. Changes in customer requests are recognized at an early stage. Market changes can be handled effectively.
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) are being created. Production system components like tooling machines are mutually interlinked and connected to Enterprise Resource Planning Systems. So the "Smart Factory“ becomes reality.
Minimum quantities of parts can be produced in the cheap cost structures of big lot sizes.
Industry 4.0 Today
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Intelligent Units: Machines are self organizing their own production processes, service robots collaborate with human beings in assembly lines. Driverless transport vehicles autonomously fulfill logistics orders.
The Industry 4.0 philosophy determines the complete lifecycle of a product: research & development, production, testing, use, MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul), recycling.
Former “passive” tools, machines or transport devices are equipped with digital “Eyes & Ears” (sensors) as well as “Hands & Feet” (actuators) and are controlled via IT systems - centralized or de-centralized.
Smart Factory – State of the Art
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Industrial processes using digital technologies become more "intelligent“.
New business models are created: software expertise and know-how concerning digital technologies determine the business success of companies.
Intelligent coverage and analysis of data enable companies to offer products that are precision-tailored to customer preferences.
New product ideas and developments result from the information collected by a smart product during its life cycle.
How Industry 4.0 Influences the Economy
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High quality results, not deserted plants without any human presence
Process oriented and dedicated work
Procedures are easily coordinated – improved communication and autonomous and quick decision making.
Due to the high level processes, interdisciplinary expertise is more than welcome.
Vocational and educational training will be integrated core activities of companies who want to ensure that their employees are highly motivated.
Job Enrichment with Industry 4.0
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Presence of SCM/Logistics
Production
Customer, End User
Retailer Original Equipment
Manufacturer (OEM)
1st Tier Supplier
2nd Tier Supplier
nth Tier Supplier
Forwarder Logistics
Service Prov. 3rd Party Log. Provider (3PL)
Contract Logistics Prov.
Express, Parcel, Courier
4th Party Logistics Provider (4PL)
Supply Chain Management / Logistics
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Presence of SCM/Logistics
Production
Customer, End User
Retailer Original Equipment
Manufacturer (OEM)
1st Tier Supplier
2nd Tier Supplier
nth Tier Supplier
Forwarder Logistics
Service Prov. 3rd Party Log. Provider (3PL)
Contract Logistics Prov.
Express, Parcel, Courier
4th Party Logistics Provider (4PL)
Supply Chain Management / Logistics
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Volatility and interdependencies in the economy / within supply chains, floating exchange rates, government regulations
Demographic change, generational handover: more short term focus
Disasters in nature and global politics
Increasing complexity through customer expectations, cost pressure due to transparency and global competition
Rapidly developing technology, “digitization” of business processes
Increasing number of networks and alliances
Inadequate infrastructure and lack of qualified personal
Driving Permanent Change
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2015-Q12014-Q12013-Q12012-Q12011-Q12010-Q12009-Q12008-Q12007-Q1
Klima Lage Erwartungen
Normalniveau
Participants of SCM Survey …
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Findings of Executive Interviews
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91%
85% 85%
80% 78% 78%
76%
59%
39%
28%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Key Logistics Trends
Dedicated Strategies
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94% 91% 89%
85%
78%
69% 70%
50%
43% 44%
24%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Key Logistics Strategies
Industry 4.0 will Drive the Change
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<1%
2%
17%
37%
43%
55%
86%
94%
98%
99%
Dentist
Chemical engineer
Fire fighter
Actor
Economist
Pilot
Real estate agent
Accountant/ Auditor
Tax advisor
Telephone salesperson
Probability for dedicated jobs to be replaced by robots or computers within the next 20 years (selection)
Source: Frey/Osborne (2013)
GENERALLY
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
Industry 4.0 will Drive the Change
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<1%
1%
4%
11%
27%
38%
68%
79%
96%
99%
Shipbuilding engineer
Sales manager
Software developer
Air traffic controller
Ships's captain
Order picker
Postman
Truck driver
Train driver
Freight forwarder
LOGISTICS
Source: Frey/Osborne (2013)
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
Probability for dedicated jobs to be replaced by robots or computers within the next 20 years (selection)
Prepared for Industry 4.0?
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26%
27%
31%
32%
36%
39%
46%
Mechanical and plant engineering
Electronics industry
Automotive industry
Medical technology
Energy technology
Logistics
Chemicals
How top managers rate the preparedness of their business field for Industry 4.0
Source: Roland Berger/BDI (2015)
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
Drivers of Industry 4.0?
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7%
27%
52%
63%
66%
93%
Workforce requirements
Organizational change
Increase in data volumes
Increase in complexity
Improved cost structures
Process optimization
Which fields are driving Industry 4.0 within companies?
Source: BVL (2015), Panel for the Logistics Indicator
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
Business Innovations?
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MAERSK
Spare parts for 3D printers during maritime transport
ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer
BVL is …
... an open network of people who are committed to efficient and effective cooperation in a globally active sector of industry.
... a voluntary association of management executives and decision-makers from the worlds of industry, science and politics.
... an active community whose members look beyond their own specific field of activity to both reap and generate specialised and interpersonal benefits.
Mission
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Non-profit organisation, objective, independent, does not represent special interests
More than 10,000 members from the top echelons
of industry, trade, services and science
More than 30 chapters worldwide, about 300 free events every year
250 honorary officials
Exchange of knowledge and experience
Communicating the importance of supply chain management and promoting its application and development
Profile
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Cross-sector encounters, transfer of know-how and experience
Information, ideas, stimuli
Inspiration for own day-to-day work
Hands-on demonstration of logistics concepts -> Presentations, company tours, videos
Interaction with logistics and SCM experts and decision makers from the fields of industry, trade, services, science and politics
In multiple countries, organized on a voluntary basis, participation free of charge
Chapters
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Worldwide Contacts
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Meet the Experts
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