a weekly publication of the transportation and marketing ......2011/01/20 · the russian grain...

A weekly publication of the Transportation and Marketing Programs/Transportation Services Division

www.ams.usda.gov/GTR

January 20, 2011

Contents

Article/ Calendar

Grain

Transportation Indicators

Rail

Barge

Truck

Exports

Ocean

Brazil

Mexico

Quarterly Updates

Specialists

Subscription Information -------------- The next release is

January 27, 2011

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS

Vancouver, WA, Port Expansion Expected to Increase Grain Exports The Port of Vancouver, WA, has granted United Grain Corporation permission to tear down three buildings on the port’s Terminal 2 adjacent to the grain terminal. Removing the buildings will accommodate the company’s planned expansion of grain exports and allow the port to continue its larger and longer-term West Vancouver Freight Access rail project, which is planned to cost $150 million and be completed by 2017. United Grain’s $72 million project to expand the company’s grain handling operations would provide an additional 60,000 tons of storage space for corn and soybeans, which is expected to result in an additional 2 million tons of grain moving through the port. The Columbia River channel-deepening project is one of the reasons behind United Grain’s expansion. Because the depth of the shipping channel has been increased to 43 feet, about 7,200 tons of additional grain can be loadedonto each vessel that docks at the port. The project will be completed over the next several years. OMB Reviewing TWIC Reader Requirements On January 12, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) received the Coast Guard’s notice of proposed rulemaking to establish Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) reader requirements for maritime facilities and vessels. After review by OMB, the proposed rule will be published in the Federal Register and made available for comment at www.regulations.gov under docket number USCG-2007-28915. According to Land Line Magazine, over 1.6 million TWICs have been issued to transportation professionals, including nearly 232,000 merchant mariners, over 300,000 truck drivers, and nearly 12,000 rail crew members. FMC Orders Special Monitoring Requirements for Three Global Vessel Alliance Agreements Severe disruptions in ocean transportation service experienced last year by U.S. exporters and importers has led the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) to conclude that more timely notice and reporting is needed for global vessel alliance agreements. The agreements have the potential to be complex and anticompetitive in multiple trade lanes. Effective January 24, New World Alliance, Grand Alliance, and CKYH Alliance and their member carriers must file with the FMC their meeting minutes and monthly reports on vessel capacity allocated to the U.S. market, including U.S. cargo loadings, both inbound and outbound. The alliances must provide notice of planned changes in vessel capacity, substitution of vessels, or adjustments in sailings that could change the weekly vessel capacity by five percent or more. Weekly Grain Inspections Up Slightly For the week ending January13, total inspections of grain (corn, wheat, and soybeans) from all major U.S. export regions reached 2.16 million metric tons (mmt), up 3 percent from the previous week, but 3.3 percent below the same week last year. Inspections were16 percent above the 3-year average. Corn and soybean inspections rebounded from the past week as shipments to Asia increased.

Snapshots by Sector Rail U.S. railroads originated 25,913 carloads of grainduring the week ending January 8, up 43 percent from last week, 33 percent from last year, and 31 percent higher than the 3-year average. During the week ending January 13, average January non-shuttle secondary railcar bids/offers were $112.50 above tariff, up $46.50 from last week. Average shuttle rates were $25 below tariff, up $223 from last week. Barge During the week ending January 15, barge grain movements totaled 539,076 tons, 5 percent lower than the previous week but 82 percent higher than the same period last year. During the week ending January 15, 337 grain barges moved down river, down 7 percent from last week; 571 grain barges were unloaded in New Orleans, down13 percent from the previous week. Fuel During the week ending January 10, U.S. average diesel fuel prices were $3.41—up 2 percent from the previous week, and 18.7 percent higher than the same week last year. Ocean During the week ending January 13, 50 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, up 22 percent from last year. Eighty-one vessels are expected to be loaded in the U.S. Gulf within the next 10 days, up 13 percent from last year. During the week ending January 14, the cost of shipping grain from the Gulf to Japan averaged $54 per mt, up 2 percent from the previous week. The rate from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $32 per mt, up10 percent from the previous week.

Contact Us

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http://www.regulations.gov/#!searchResults;rpp=10;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;s=USCG-2007-28915

http://www.fmc.gov/assets/1/News/Alliance Order FINAL 1-11-2011.pdf


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January 20, 2011

Grain Transportation Report 2

Feature Article/Calendar

Grain Transportation Update

Grain transportation volume during the first quarter of 2011is expected to be robust because of high crop prices,

near-record corn and record soybean harvests, and strong export demand. Lower projected grain ending stocks and

higher demand have led to a surge in crop prices, which could encourage farmers to sell more grain than usual

during the first quarter. The Russian grain export ban, lower grain production in Europe, and a falling value of the

U.S. dollar have led to increased demand for U.S. grain.

Lower Grain Ending Stocks and Higher Demand in the 2010/11 Marketing Year

After USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which showed lower

production and higher use than last year,

commodity prices surged and are currently

40–65 percent higher than at this time last

year. In January, USDA projected that corn,

wheat and soybean production for the

2010/11 marketing year will total 17.98

billion bushels, 3.7 percent lower than last

year (see table). At the same time, exports

are projected to increase by 10.8 percent from

last year. This projection is based on

continued strong Chinese demand for U.S.

soybeans, higher demand for U.S. wheat due

to the Russian grain export ban, and corn

exports that are only slightly lower than last

year.

The projected 2010/11 wheat and corn ending

stocks-to-use ratios are 15.4 and 7.6

percentage points lower than they were in

2009/10 and the soybean ending stocks-to-

use ratio is slightly lower at 4.2 percent. The

tight market has resulted in a significant

increase in corn, soybean, and wheat prices.

As reflected in the March futures contracts,

corn prices are 65 percent, soybeans 60

percent, and wheat 39 percent higher than last

year. In addition, strong market carries in

corn and wheat during the fall months slowed

the pace of corn and wheat exports, pushing

the demand for grain transportation into this

quarter and potentially into the spring months

(see figure).

Bulk Ocean Freight Rates Were Moderate

in 2010; Trends Expected to Continue in 2011 Although ocean freight rates for bulk shipments increased from 2009 to 2010, they were far below the levels in 2008

and 2007, when ocean freight rates skyrocketed. The 2010 rates were also below their 4-year averages. The rates

for shipping bulk grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan averaged $63.59 per metric ton (mt) during 2010—4 percent

below the 4-year average. The rates from the Pacific Northwest to Japan averaged $36.04 per mt—14 percent below

the 4-year average. The rates from the U.S. Gulf to Rotterdam averaged $26.48 per mt, 32 percent lower than the 4-

year average. The rates were kept low due to moderate demand for bulk shipping and increased vessel supply

during the year. So far the rates have remained moderate since the beginning of 2011. As of January 14, the rate for

shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan was $54 per mt, and from Pacific Northwest to Japan was $32 per mt.

The rate from the U.S. Gulf to Rotterdam was $24 per mt. The rates are likely to remain moderate unless there is a

significant increase in demand for bulk shipments.

Corn Soybeans Wheat Total Y/Y

Production 12,447 3,329 2,208 17,984 -3.7%

Exports 1,950 1,590 1,300 4,840 10.8%

Domestic Use 11,480 1,765 1,176 14,421 2.5%

Ending Stocks/Use 5.5% 4.2% 33.0%

Production 13,092 3,359 2,218 18,669 6.3%

Exports 1,987 1,501 881 4,369 5.5%

Domestic Use 11,079 1,860 1,137 14,076 6.4%


Production 12,092 2,967 2,499 17,558

Exports 1,849 1,279 1,015 4,143

Domestic Use 10,207 1,768 1,260 13,235


Major Grains: Production and Use, January 2011 WASDE, million bushels

United States 2010/11 (Projected)

2009/10 (Estimated)

2008/09

January 20, 2011


Average Diesel Fuel Prices Increased in 2010, Continue to Rise in 2011

The average on-highway diesel price in the United States in 2010 was $2.99 per gallon, 21 percent higher than 2009

and 1 percent higher than the 4-year average. During the 4th Quarter, U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices averaged

$3.14 per gallon, 7 percent higher than the previous quarter and 15 percent higher than last year. From the first

week in October, prices have been above $3 per gallon with a high of $3.29 during the last week of December. In

that same week, crude oil was priced at $87 per barrel, a $17 increase from the December 2009 average. The

Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) estimated on-highway diesel fuel prices to average $3.40 per gallon this

year, 41 cents per gallon higher than last year and $3.52 per gallon in 2012 As of January 17, the average price of

diesel was $3.41 per gallon.

Rail Grain Car Loadings Stronger in

2010; Off to Good Start in 2011 Class I railroad grain car loadings for

2010 (1,149,840) were 11 percent greater

than in 2009 (1,036,873) and 0.5 percent

above the 2007–09 average (1,143,457).

Due to the large 2010/11 grain and

oilseeds crop, robust exports, and high

crop prices, railcar loadings for the next 3

months are expected to be close to those

of 2007, a banner year. Class I railroad

grain car loadings for the first week of

2011 (25,913) were 33 percent more than

in 2010 (19,429) and 16 percent above

the 2008-2010 average (22,417).

Barge Rates Below Average Most of 2010

Weekly barge rates for grain shipped from St. Louis to New Orleans have been below average for most of the year

except for brief periods in May, August, and all of December (see graph). Near-average rates for most of 2010

were accompanied by total barge volumes that were similar to those in 2009. The December rate increase

was due to widespread freezing temperatures that limited barge movements and effectively reduced the barge

supply. Freezing temperatures can slow the barge cleaning process, which then slows the return of barges to the

next shipper. Ice accumulations on the river also create delays as barge operators must contend with harsh winter

navigation conditions.

On January 15–16, the U.S. Army

Corps of Engineers (Corps)

reported that ice accumulations

forced the temporary closing of

Melvin Price (MP) Locks and

Dam (north of St. Louis). The

Corps implemented procedures

that ―flushed‖ ice out of the lock

chamber and made the facility

fully operational again. In 2010,

the MP Locks and Dam moved

more than 54,000 barges, totaling

56 million tons. About half of the

tonnage was food and farm

products.

[email protected]

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

1 3 5 7 9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

Carl

oad

s

Week

Weekly U.S. Class I Graincar Loadings

2010

2009

2007--2009 Average

Source: AAR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

RA

TE

Weekly St. Louis Barge Rates,

3-yr. Average and 2010

Average 2010

Source: USDA-AMS-TMP-TSD

January 20, 2011


Table 2

Market Update: U.S. Origins to Export Position Price Spreads ($/bushel)

Commodity Origin--Destination 1/14/2011 1/7/2011

Corn IL--Gulf -0.64 -0.59

Corn NE--Gulf -0.81 -0.78

Soybean IA--Gulf n/a -1.23

HRW KS--Gulf -1.50 -1.45

HRS ND--Portland -4.00 -4.00

Note: nq = no quote

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

Grain Transportation Indicators

Table 1

Grain Transport Cost Indicators1

Truck Rail2

Barge Ocean

Week ending Gulf Pacific

01/19/11 229 153 254 242 2272 % -13 % 2 % 2 % 10 %

01/12/11 223 161 250 237 206

1Indicator: Base year 2000 = 100; Weekly updates include truck = diesel ($/gallon); rail = nearby secondary rail market ($/car);

barge = Illinois River barge rate (index = percent of tariff rate); and ocean = routes to Japan ($/metric ton)


2The rail indicator is not an index. It is the difference between the nearby secondary rail market bid for this week and the average bid for year 2000 (+) 100.

The grain bid summary illustrates the market relationships for commodities. Positive and negative adjustments in differential

between terminal and futures markets, and the relationship to inland market points, are indicators of changes in fundamental mar-

ket supply and demand. The map may be used to monitor market and time differentials.

Figure 1

Grain bid Summary

January 20, 2011


Rail Transportation

Railroads originate approximately 35 percent of U.S. grain shipments. Trends in these loadings are indicative of

market conditions and expectations.

Figure 2

Rail Deliveries to Port

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

04

/02

/08

05/0

7/0

8

06

/11

/08

07

/16

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08/2

0/0

8

09

/24

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10

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12

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/08

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07

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/05

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12

/23

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03

/03

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/07

/10

05/1

2/1

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06

/16

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/21

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08

/25

/10

09/2

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0

11

/03

/10

12

/08

/10

01/1

2/1

1

02/1

6/1

1Ca

rlo

ad

s -

4-w

eek

ru

nn

ing

av

era

ge

Pacific Northwest: 4wks. ending 1/12--up 16% from same period last year; down 3% from 4-year average

Texas Gulf: 4 wks. ending 1/12-- up 50% from same period last year; up 17% from 4-year average

Miss. River: 4 wks. ending 1/12 -- up 184% from same period last year; down 8% from 4-year average

Cross-border Mexico: 4 wks. ending 1/12 -- down 9% from same period last year; down 14% from 4-year average


Table 3

Rail Deliveries to Port (carloads)1

Mississippi Cross-Border Pacific Atlantic &

Week ending Gulf Texas Gulf Mexico Northwest East Gulf Total

1/12/2011p

853 1,935 449 3,573 841 7,651

1/05/2010r

1,100 1,678 468 3,421 761 7,428

2011 YTD 1,953 3,613 917 6,994 1,602 15,079

2010YTD 768 2,517 1,364 5,433 2,717 12,799

2011 YTD as % of 2010 YTD 254 144 67 129 59 118

Last 4 weeks as % of 20102

284 150 91 116 64 120

Last 4 weeks as % of 4-year avg.2

92 117 86 97 91 99

Total 2010 33,971 83,492 42,794 177,896 32,780 370,933

Total 2009 33,423 57,646 36,738 175,965 30,328 334,100 1

Data is incomplete as it is voluntarily provided2 Compared with same 4-weeks in 2010 and prior 4-year average.

YTD = year-to-date; p = preliminary data; r = revised data; n/a = not available


January 20, 2011


Table 4

Class I Rail Carrier Grain Car Bulletin (grain carloads originated)

U.S. total

Week ending CSXT NS BNSF KCS UP CN CP

01/08/11 2,648 3,409 11,941 684 7,231 25,913 3,605 5,317

This week last year 2,523 2,761 9,156 575 4,414 19,429 3,763 5,498

2011 YTD 2,648 3,409 11,941 684 7,231 25,913 3,605 5,317

2010 YTD 2,523 2,761 9,156 575 4,414 19,429 3,763 5,498

2011 YTD as % of 2010 YTD 105 123 130 119 164 133 96 97


108 109 119 101 130 119 111 102

Last 4 weeks as % of 3-yr avg.1

98 116 117 91 125 116 96 109

Total 2010 111,935 159,836 546,901 35,807 295,361 1,149,840 203,038 265,835 1As a percent of the same period in 2009 and the prior 3-year average. YTD = year-to-date.

Source: Association of American Railroads (www.aar.org)

East West Canada

Figure 3

Total Weekly U.S. Class I Railroad Grain Car Loadings

Source: Association of American Railroads

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

02

/06

/10

03

/06

/10

04

/03

/10

05

/01

/10

05

/29

/10

06

/26

/10

07

/24

/10

08

/21

/10

09

/18

/10

10

/16

/10

11

/13

/10

12

/11

/10

01

/08

/11

02

/05

/11

Ca

rlo

ad

s -

4-w

eek

ru

nn

ing

av

g.

4-week period endingCurrent year 3-year average

For 4 weeks ending January 8: up 3.0 percent from last week; up 18.6 percent from last year; and up 15.5 percent

from the 3-year average.

Table 5

Rail Car Auction Offerings1

($/car)2

Week ending

1/13/2011 Jan-11 Jan-10 Feb-11 Feb-10 Mar-11 Mar-10 Apr-11 Apr-10

BNSF3

COT grain units no offer no offer no offer 0 0 no bids no bids no bids

COT grain single-car5

no offer no offer 3 0 . . 12 0 0 0 no bids

UP4

GCAS/Region 1 1 no offer no bids no bids no bids no bids n/a no offer

GCAS/Region 2 no bids no offer no bids no bids no bids no bids n/a no offer1Auction offerings are for single-car and unit train shipments only.

2Average premium/discount to tariff, last auction

3BNSF - COT = Certificate of Transportation; north grain and south grain bids were combined effective the week ending 6/24/06.

4UP - GCAS = Grain Car Allocation System

Region 1 includes: AR, IL, LA, MO, NM, OK, TX, WI, and Duluth, MN.

Region 2 includes: CO, IA, KS, MN, NE, WY, and Kansas City and St. Joseph, MO.5Range is shown because average is not available. Not available = n/a.

Source: Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA.

Delivery period

January 20, 2011


Figure 4

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in January 2011, Secondary Market

Non-shuttle bids include unit-train and single-car bids. n/a = not available.


-400

-200

0

200

4006/1

7/1

0

7/1

/10

7/1

5/1

0

7/2

9/1

0

8/1

2/1

0

8/2

6/1

0

9/9

/10

9/2

3/1

0

10

/7/1

0

10

/21

/10

11/4

/10

11

/18

/10

12

/2/1

0

12/1

6/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/1

3/1

1

Non-shuttle Shuttle

Non-shuttle avg. 2008-10 (same week) Shuttle avg. 2008-10 (same week)

Avera

ge p

rem

ium

/dis

cou

nt

to t

ari

ff

($/c

ar)

Non-shuttle bids/offers rose $46.50 from last week and were at the peak.

Shuttle bids/offers rose $223 from last week and were $20.50 below the peak.

BNSF UP Non-shuttle $150 $75

Shuttle -$25 n/a

The secondary rail market information reflects trade values for service that was originally purchased from the railroad carrier

as some form of guaranteed freight. The auction and secondary rail values are indicators of rail service quality and demand/

supply.

Figure 5

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in February 2011, Secondary Market



-400

-200

0

200

400

7/1

5/1

0

7/2

9/1

0

8/1

2/1

0

8/2

6/1

0

9/9

/10

9/2

3/1

0

10

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0

10/2

1/1

0

11

/4/1

0

11

/18

/10

12/2

/10

12

/16

/10

12

/30

/10

1/1

3/1

1

1/2

7/1

1

2/1

0/1

1

Non-shuttle Shuttle



Shuttle -$138 -$425

Ave

rage

pre

miu

m/d

isco

un

t to

tari

ff

($/c

ar)

Non-shuttle bids/offers this week rose $15.50 from last week and were $11.50 below the peak.

Shuttle bids dropped $81.50 from last week and were $184 below the peak.

January 20, 2011


Figure 6

Bids/Offers for Railcars to be Delivered in March 2011, Secondary Market



-600

-400

-200

0

200

8/1

9/1

0

9/2

/10

9/1

6/1

0

9/3

0/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

10

/28

/10

11

/11

/10

11

/25

/10

12

/9/1

0

12

/23

/10

1/6

/11

1/2

0/1

1

2/3

/11

2/1

7/1

1

3/3

/11

3/1

7/1

1

Non-shuttle Shuttle



Shuttle -$350 -$488

Ave

rage

pre

miu

m/d

isco

un

t to

tari

ff

($/c

ar)

Non-shuttle bids/offers rose $25 from last week and are at the peak.

Shuttle bids dropped $50 from last week and are $119 below the peak.

Table 6

Weekly Secondary Rail Car Market ($/car)1

Week ending

1/13/2011 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

Non-shuttle

BNSF-GF 150 90 67 n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week 93 44 50 n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2010 150 68 n/a n/a n/a n/a

UP-Pool 75 25 - - - n/a

Change from last week - (13) - n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2010 n/a 38 25 n/a n/a n/a

Shuttle2

BNSF-GF (25) (138) (350) n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week (129) (88) (50) n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2010 (150) (138) n/a n/a n/a n/a

UP-Pool n/a (425) (488) n/a n/a n/a

Change from last week n/a (75) (50) n/a n/a n/a

Change from same week 2010 n/a (532) n/a n/a n/a n/a1Average premium/discount to tariff, $/car-last week

2Shuttle bids are a new data series; prior to this we provided only non-shuttle rates.

Note: Bids listed are market INDICATORS only & are NOT guaranteed prices,

n/a = not available; GF = guaranteed freight; Pool = guaranteed pool

Sources: Transportation and Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

Data from Atwood/ConAgra, Harvest States Co-op, James B. Joiner Co., Tradewest Brokerage Co.

Delivery period

January 20, 2011


Table 7

Tariff Rail Rates for Unit and Shuttle Train Shipments1

Effective date:

Tariff

1/3/2011 Origin region* Destination region* rate/car metric ton bushel2

Unit train

Wheat Wichita, KS St. Louis, MO $2,774 $106 $28.60 $0.78

Grand Forks, ND Duluth-Superior, MN $2,563 $143 $26.87 $0.73

Wichita, KS Los Angeles, CA $5,047 $734 $57.41 $1.56

Wichita, KS New Orleans, LA $3,275 $187 $34.38 $0.94

Sioux Falls, SD Galveston-Houston, TX $4,981 $603 $55.45 $1.51

Northwest KS Galveston-Houston, TX $3,543 $205 $37.22 $1.01

Amarillo, TX Los Angeles, CA $3,742 $285 $39.99 $1.09

Corn Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $2,812 $211 $30.02 $0.82

Toledo, OH Raleigh, NC $3,760 $251 $39.83 $1.08

Des Moines, IA Davenport, IA $1,843 $45 $18.75 $0.51

Indianapolis, IN Atlanta, GA $3,196 $189 $33.61 $0.91

Indianapolis, IN Knoxville, TN $2,760 $121 $28.61 $0.78

Des Moines, IA Little Rock, AR $2,938 $131 $30.48 $0.83

Des Moines, IA Los Angeles, CA $4,372 $383 $47.22 $1.29

Soybeans Minneapolis, MN New Orleans, LA $3,381 $216 $35.72 $0.97

Toledo, OH Huntsville, AL $2,921 $178 $30.78 $0.84

Indianapolis, IN Raleigh, NC $3,830 $253 $40.54 $1.10

Indianapolis, IN Huntsville, AL $2,613 $121 $27.15 $0.74

Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $3,156 $211 $33.44 $0.91

Shuttle Train

Wheat Great Falls, MT Portland, OR $2,868 $422 $32.68 $0.89

Wichita, KS Galveston-Houston, TX $2,867 $329 $31.74 $0.86

Chicago, IL Albany, NY $3,497 $235 $37.07 $1.01

Grand Forks, ND Portland, OR $4,131 $730 $48.27 $1.31

Grand Forks, ND Galveston-Houston, TX $5,046 $760 $57.65 $1.57

Northwest KS Portland, OR $4,510 $336 $48.12 $1.31

Corn Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR $4,120 $888 $49.74 $1.35

Sioux Falls, SD Tacoma, WA $4,120 $814 $48.99 $1.33

Champaign-Urbana, IL New Orleans, LA $2,677 $211 $28.68 $0.78

Lincoln, NE Galveston-Houston, TX $2,880 $474 $33.31 $0.91

Des Moines, IA Amarillo, TX $3,330 $165 $34.71 $0.94

Minneapolis, MN Tacoma, WA $4,120 $881 $49.67 $1.35

Council Bluffs, IA Stockton, CA $3,480 $912 $43.61 $1.19

Soybeans Sioux Falls, SD Tacoma, WA $4,320 $814 $50.98 $1.39

Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR $4,270 $888 $51.23 $1.39

Fargo, ND Tacoma, WA $4,270 $723 $49.59 $1.35

Council Bluffs, IA New Orleans, LA $3,510 $244 $37.28 $1.01

Toledo, OH Huntsville, AL $2,536 $178 $26.95 $0.73

Grand Island, NE Portland, OR $4,520 $344 $48.30 $1.311A unit train refers to shipments of at least 25 cars. Shuttle train rates are available for qualified shipments of

90-110 cars that meet railroad efficiency requirements.

2Approximate load per car = 111 short tons (100.7 metric tons): corn 56 lbs./bu., wheat & soybeans 60 lbs./bu.

3Percentage change year over year calculated using tariff rate plus fuel surchage

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.cpr.ca, www.csx.com, www.uprr.com

*Regional economic areas defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Tariff plus surcharge per:Fuel

surcharge

per car

January 20, 2011


Figure 7

Railroad Fuel Surcharges, North American Weighted Average1

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.cn.ca, www.cpr.ca, www.csx.com, www.kcsi.com, www.nscorp.com, www.uprr.com

$0.00

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mil

e

Fuel Surcharge* ($/mile/railcar)

3-year Monthly Average

1 Weighted by each Class I railroad's proportion of grain traffic for the prior year. * Mileage-based fuel surcharges for March and April 2007 are estimated. Beginning January 2009, the Canadian Pacific fuel surcharge is

computed by a monthly average of the bi-weekly fuel surcharge.

January 2011: $0.276, up 5.9% from last month's surcharge of $0.261/mile; up 38% from the January 2010 surcharge of $0.200/mile; and up 7% from the January prior 3-year average of $0.257/mile.

$0.276

Table 8

Tariff Rail Rates for U.S. Bulk Grain Shipments to Mexico

Effective date: 1/3/2011 Percent

Tariff change

Commodity Destination region rate/car1

metric ton3

bushel3

Y/Y4

Wheat MT Chihuahua, CI $6,854 $772 $77.92 $2.12 11

OK Cuautitlan, EM $6,191 $613 $69.52 $1.89 10

KS Guadalajara, JA $6,825 $890 $78.83 $2.14 12

TX Salinas Victoria, NL $3,433 $208 $37.20 $1.01 12

Corn IA Guadalajara, JA $7,056 $901 $81.29 $2.06 9

SD Penjamo, GJ $6,619 $1,010 $77.95 $1.98 4

NE Queretaro, QA $6,240 $626 $70.16 $1.78 3

SD Salinas Victoria, NL $4,785 $768 $56.73 $1.44 7

MO Tlalnepantla, EM $5,428 $610 $61.70 $1.57 4

SD Torreon, CU $5,681 $846 $66.69 $1.69 8

Soybeans MO Bojay (Tula), HG $6,351 $771 $72.77 $1.98 7

NE Guadalajara, JA $7,166 $876 $82.17 $2.23 14

IA El Castillo, JA5

$7,352 $1,004 $85.38 $2.32 12

KS Torreon, CU $5,800 $571 $65.09 $1.77 13

Sorghum OK Cuautitlan, EM $4,729 $767 $56.15 $1.42 11

TX Guadalajara, JA $5,781 $657 $65.78 $1.67 11

NE Penjamo, GJ $6,407 $793 $73.57 $1.87 2

KS Queretaro, QA $5,641 $470 $62.44 $1.58 5

NE Salinas Victoria, NL $4,500 $484 $50.92 $1.29 5

NE Torreon, CU $5,546 $625 $63.05 $1.60 71Rates are based upon published tariff rates for high-capacity shuttle trains. Shuttle trains are available for qualified

shipments of 75--110 cars that meet railroad efficiency requirements.2Fuel surcharge adjusted to reflect the change in Ferrocarril Mexicano, S.A. de C.V railroad fuel surcharge policy as of 10/01/2009

3Approximate load per car = 97.87 metric tons: Corn & Sorghum 56 lbs/bu, Wheat & Soybeans 60 lbs/bu

4Percentage change year over year calculated using tariff rate plus fuel surchage

5 Beginning 12/6/10, El Castillo, JA replaced Penjamo, GJ as the destination

Sources: www.bnsf.com, www.uprr.com, www.kcsouthern.com

Fuel

surcharge

per car2

Tariff plus surcharge per:Origin

state

January 20, 2011


Barge Transportation

Calculating barge rate per ton:

(Index * 1976 tariff benchmark rate per ton)/100

Select applicable index from market quotes included in

tables on this page. The 1976 benchmark rates per ton

are provided in map (see figure 9).

Figure 8

Illinois River Barge Freight Rate1,2

1Rate = percent of 1976 tariff benchmark index (1976 = 100 percent);

24-week moving average of the 3-year average.


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Week ending January 18: up 2 percent from last week, up 17 percent from last year; and up 12

percent from 3-yr avg.

Table 9

Weekly Barge Freight Rates: Southbound Only

Twin

Cities

Mid-

Mississippi

Illinois

River St. Louis Cincinnati

Lower

Ohio

Cairo-

Memphis

Rate1

1/18/2011 - - 458 396 439 439 373

1/11/2011 - - 450 380 436 436 360

$/ton 1/18/2011 - - 21.25 15.80 20.59 17.74 11.71

1/11/2011 - - 20.88 15.16 20.45 17.61 11.30

Current week % change from the same week:

Last year - - 17 37 33 33 48

3-year avg. 2

- - 12 25 27 27 31

Rate1

February - - 425 324 394 394 306

April 410 380 368 290 339 339 2731Rate = percent of 1976 tariff benchmark index (1976 = 100 percent);

24-week moving average; ton = 2,000 pounds.


January 20, 2011


Table 10

Barge Grain Movements (1,000 tons)

Week ending 1/15/2011 Corn Wheat Soybeans Other Total

Mississippi River

Rock Island, IL (L15) 0 0 0 0 0

Winfield, MO (L25) 0 0 0 0 0

Alton, IL (L26) 120 3 48 3 174

Granite City, IL (L27) 123 3 81 3 210

Illinois River (L8) 99 2 50 3 154

Ohio River (L52) 144 12 138 0 295

Arkansas River (L1) 0 3 31 0 34

Weekly total - 2011 267 18 251 3 539

Weekly total - 2010 127 8 146 14 295

2011 YTD1

543 37 518 8 1,107

2010 YTD 263 20 298 21 603

2011 as % of 2010 YTD 207 180 174 38 184


171 106 141 107 153

Total 2010 22,904 1,233 10,525 488 35,1481 Weekly total, YTD (year-to-date) and calendar year total includes Miss/27, Ohio/52, and Ark/1; "Other" refers to oats, barley, sorghum, and rye.

2 As a percent of same period in 2010.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (www.mvr.usace.army.mil/mvrimi/omni/webrpts/default.asp)

Note: Total may not add exactly, due to rounding

Figure 10

Barge Movements on the Mississippi River1 (Locks 27 - Granite City, IL)

1 The 3-year average is a 4-week moving average.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (www.mvr.usace.army.mil/mvrimi/omni/webrpts/default.asp)

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Week ending Jan 15: Up 61% from last year, and down 19% compared to the 3-yr average.

January 20, 2011


Figure 11

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Upbound Empty Barges Transiting Mississippi River Locks 27, Arkansas River Lock and

Dam 1, and Ohio River Locks and Dam 52

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Week ending Jan 15: 418 total barges, down 209 barges from the previous week.

Figure 12

Grain Barges for Export in New Orleans Region

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and GIPSA

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Downbound Grain Barges Locks 27, 1, and 52

Grain Barges Unloaded in New Orleans

Num

ber

of

barg

es

Week ending Jan 15: 337 grain barges moved down river, down 7%from last week; 571 grain barges were unloaded in New Orleans, down

13% from the previous week.

January 20, 2011


The weekly diesel price provides a proxy for trends in U.S. truck rates as diesel fuel is a significant expense for truck grain move-

ments.

Truck Transportation

Figure 13

Weekly Diesel Fuel Prices, U.S. Average

Source: Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices, Energy Information Administration, Dept. of Energy

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Last year Current Year

$ p

er g

all

on

Week ending Jan 17: up 2 percent from the previous week and 18.7 percent higher than the same week last year.

Table 11

Change from

Region Location Price Week ago Year ago

I East Coast 3.448 0.084 0.525

New England 3.560 0.110 0.495

Central Atlantic 3.556 0.078 0.533

Lower Atlantic 3.392 0.084 0.525

II Midwest2 3.371 0.069 0.537

III Gulf Coast3

3.366 0.082 0.535

IV Rocky Mountain 3.374 0.040 0.547

V West Coast 3.509 0.064 0.562

California 3.562 0.046 0.554

Total U.S. 3.407 0.074 0.5371Diesel fuel prices include all taxes. Prices represent an average of all types of diesel fuel.

2Same as North Central

3Same as South Central

Source: Energy Information Administration/U.S. Department of Energy (www.eia.doe.gov)

Retail on-Highway Diesel Prices1, Week Ending 1/17/2011 (US $/gallon)

January 20, 2011


Grain Exports

Table 12

U.S. Export Balances and Cumulative Exports (1,000 metric tons)

Wheat Corn Soybeans Total

Week ending HRW SRW HRS SWW DUR All wheat

Export Balances1

1/6/2011 3,675 810 2,537 1,197 101 8,320 11,738 13,674 33,732

This week year ago 1,323 478 882 671 214 3,568 10,829 11,648 26,045

Cumulative exports-marketing year 2

2010/11 YTD 8,369 1,234 4,815 2,788 672 17,879 15,026 22,222 55,127

2009/10 YTD 4,719 1,803 2,995 2,475 674 12,666 14,876 21,314 48,856

YTD 2010/11 as % of 2009/10 177 68 161 113 100 141 101 104 113

Last 4 wks as % of same period 2009/10 297 172 291 186 50 243 111 123 134

2009/10 Total 8,458 2,733 5,329 3,897 983 21,400 47,700 39,285 108,385

2008/09 Total 11,244 5,100 5,408 3,420 454 25,626 44,650 33,705 103,9811 Current unshipped export sales to date

2 Shipped export sales to date; the new marketing year now in effect for corn and soybeans

Note: YTD = year-to-date. Marketing Year: wheat = 6/01-5/31, corn & soybeans = 9/01-8/31

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA (www.fas.usda.gov)

Table 13

Top 5 Importers1 of U.S. Corn

Week ending 01/06/11 % change

Exports3

2010/11 2009/10 current MY

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2009/10 - 1,000 mt -

Japan 7,648 6,888 11 14,343

Mexico 4,101 5,232 (22) 7,999

Korea 3,428 3,424 0 7,562

Taiwan 1,256 1,625 (23) 2,949

Egypt 1,789 830 116 2,935

Top 5 importers 18,222 17,998 1 35,788

Total US corn export sales 26,764 25,705 4 50,460

% of Projected 54% 51%

Change from Last Week 439 327

Top 5 importers' share of U.S. corn

export sales 68% 70%

USDA forecast, January 2011 49,530 50,460 (2)

Corn Use for Ethanol USDA

forecast, Ethanol Janary 2011 124,460 116,027 7

1Based on FAS Marketing Year Ranking Reports - www.fas.usda.gov; Marketing year (MY) = Sep 1 - Aug 31.

Total Commitments2

- 1,000 mt -

3FAS Marketing Year Final Reports - www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myfi_rpt.htm.

2Cumulative Exports (shipped) + Outstanding Sales (unshipped), FAS Weekly Export Sales Report.

(n) indicates negative number.

January 20, 2011


Table 15

Top 10 Importers1 of All U.S. Wheat

Week Ending 01/06/2011 % change

Exports3

2010/11 2009/10 current MY

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2009/10

- 1,000 mt -

Nigeria 2,387 2,330 2 3,233

Japan 2,586 2,201 18 3,148

Mexico 2,272 1,375 65 1,975

Philippines 1,721 1,319 31 1,518

Korea, South 1,273 883 44 1,111

Taiwan 664 617 8 844

Venezuela 488 420 16 658

Colombia 593 434 37 575

Peru 739 399 85 567

Egypt 2,632 456 478 529

Top 10 importers 15,355 10,433 47 14,156

Total US wheat export sales 26,199 16,234 61 23,980


Change from last week 147 182

Top 10 importers' share of

U.S. wheat export sales 59% 64%

USDA forecast, January 2010 35,380 23,980 48

1Based on FAS 2008/09 Marketing Year Ranking Reports - www.fas.usda.gov; Marketing year = Jun 1 - May 31.

Total Commitments2

3 FAS Marketing Year Final Reports - www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myfi_rpt.htm.


2 Cumulative Exports (shipped) + Outstanding Sales (unshipped), FAS Weekly Export Sales Report.

- 1,000 mt -

Table 14

Top 5 Importers1 of U.S. Soybeans

Week ending 01/06/11 % change

Exports3

2010/11 2009/10 current MY

Current MY Last MY from last MY 2009/10

- 1,000 mt -

China 22,840 20,285 13 22,454

Mexico 1,809 1,546 17 3,276

Japan 1,225 1,514 (19) 2,347

EU-25 1,664 1,669 (0) 2,647

Taiwan 865 1,100 (21) 1,556

Top 5 importers 28,403 26,113 9 32,280

Total US soybean export sales 35,896 32,961 9 40,850


Change from last week 495 754

Top 5 importers' share of U.S.

soybean export sales 79% 79%

USDA forecast, January 2011 43,270 40,850 6

Soybean Use for Biodiesel USDA

forecast, January 2011 6,954 4,076 71

1Based on FAS 2008/09 Marketing Year Ranking Reports - www.fas.usda.gov; Marketing year (MY) = Sep 1 - Aug 31.

Total Commitments2

- 1,000 mt -

3 FAS Marketing Year Final Reports - www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myfi_rpt.htm.


2 Cumulative Exports (shipped) + Outstanding Sales (unshipped), FAS Weekly Export Sales Report.

January 20, 2011


The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. On average, this includes nearly 45 percent of U.S.-grown

wheat, 35 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 20 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. Approximately 61 percent of the U.S. export grain ship-

ments departed through the U.S. Gulf region in 2010.

Table 16

Grain Inspections for Export by U.S. Port Region (1,000 metric tons)

Port Week ending Previous Current Week 2011 YTD as Total1

regions 01/13/11 Week1

as % of Previous 2011 YTD1

2010 YTD1

% of 2010 YTD 2010 3-yr. avg. 2010

Pacific Northwest

Wheat 278 252 110 530 323 164 148 128 11,062

Corn 149 166 90 315 85 373 78 103 9,950

Soybeans 132 237 56 369 304 121 101 112 10,191

Total 559 655 85 1,215 711 171 106 115 31,203

Mississippi Gulf

Wheat 86 21 415 107 28 376 157 135 4,199

Corn 280 280 100 560 393 142 98 85 29,794

Soybeans 854 727 117 1,580 730 217 70 105 22,519

Total 1,220 1,028 119 2,247 1,151 195 82 98 56,512

Texas Gulf

Wheat 193 300 64 493 97 510 239 236 9,339

Corn 35 0 n/a 35 0 n/a 200 133 1,859

Soybeans 118 56 211 173 106 163 79 191 1,916

Total 346 356 97 702 203 345 159 208 13,115

Great Lakes

Wheat 0 0 n/a 0 2 0 1,045 584 1,897

Corn 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a n/a 251 119

Soybeans 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a n/a 0 655

Total 0 0 n/a 0 2 0 1,887 248 2,672

Atlantic

Wheat 20 59 33 79 0 41,414 300 250 343

Corn 0 0 n/a 0 16 0 0 0 469

Soybeans 16 0 4,193 17 50 35 34 68 1,417

Total 36 60 60 96 66 146 54 79 2,229

U.S. total from ports2

Wheat 577 632 91 1,209 450 269 181 163 26,839

Corn 464 447 104 911 494 185 94 90 42,192

Soybeans 1,119 1,019 110 2,140 1,190 180 73 109 36,699

Total 2,161 2,098 103 4,260 2,134 200 94 111 105,7301 Data includes revisions from prior weeks; some regional totals may not add exactly due to rounding.

2 Total includes only port regions shown above

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov); YTD= year-to-date; n/a = not applicable

Last 4-weeks as % of

January 20, 2011


Figure 14

U.S. grain inspected for export (wheat, corn, and soybeans)

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov)

Note: 3-year average consists of 4-week running average

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bu

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Current week 3-year average.

For the week ending Jan. 13: 80.2 mbu, up 3% from the previous week, down 4.1 % from same week last year, and 16.1% above the 3-year

average

Figure 15

U.S. Grain Inspections: U.S. Gulf and PNW1 (wheat, corn, and soybeans)

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Miss. Gulf PNW

Texas Gulf 3-Year avg - Miss. Gulf

3-Year avg - PNW 3-Year avg - TX Gulf

21.0*

45.5*

12.8*

Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration/USDA (www.gipsa.usda.gov); *mbu, this week.

Jan 13 % change from: MS Gulf TX Gulf U.S. Gulf PNW

Last week up 18 down 2 up 13 down 15

Last year (same week) down 23 up 75 down 11 up 36

3-yr avg. (4-wk mov. avg.) up 6 up 129 up 20 down 1

January 20, 2011


Ocean Transportation

Figure 16

U.S. Gulf1 Vessel Loading Activity

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Source:Transportation & Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA1U.S. Gulf includes Mississippi, Texas, and East Gulf.

Week ending Jan. 13 Loaded Due Change from last year 22.0% 12.5%

Change from 4-year avg. 12.4% 20.9%

Table 17

Weekly Port Region Grain Ocean Vessel Activity (number of vessels)

Pacific Vancouver

Gulf Northwest B.C.

Loaded Due next

Date In port 7-days 10-days In port In port

1/13/2011 26 50 81 15 n/a

1/6/2011 39 38 75 19 13

2010 range (15..69) (30..57) (33..84) (4..24) (2..20)

2010 avg. 41 42 58 12 11


January 20, 2011


Figure 17

Grain Vessel Rates, U.S. to Japan

Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec

. 0

8

Feb

. 0

9

Ap

r. 0

9

Jun

e 0

9

Au

g.

09

Oct

. 0

9

Dec

. 0

9

Feb

. 1

0

Ap

r. 1

0

Jun

e 1

0

Au

g.

10

Oct

. 1

0

Dec

. 10

US

$/m

etr

ic t

on

Spread Gulf vs. PNW to Japan Rate Gulf to Japan Rate PNW to Japan

Ocean rates for Dec. '10 Gulf PNW SpreadChange from Dec. '09 -23% -25.4 % -19.8%

Change from 4-year avg. -21.3% -32.4% -1.6%

Table 18

Ocean Freight Rates For Selected Shipments, Week Ending 1/15/2011

Export Import Grain Loading Volume loads Freight rate

region region types date (metric tons) (US$/metric ton)

U.S. Gulf China Heavy Grain Dec 22/31 55,000 57.00



U.S. Gulf China Heavy Grain Nov 20/30 55,000 56.00



U.S. Gulf Pakistan1

Wheat Nov 26/Dec 6 8,100 77.99

PNW Pakistan Heavy Grain Jan 15/25 42,000 46.00

River Plate Algeria Corn Jan 22/27 30,000 43.00

River Plate Algeria Corn Dec 5/10 25,000 36.00

River Plate Algeria Soybeanmeal Nov 28/30 25,000 39.50

River Plate Algeria Corn Nov 16/25 25,000 31.00

River Plate Italy Heavy Grain Nov 1/2 28,000 41.50

Romania Egypt Med Wheat Nov 1/10 25,000 17.25

Rates shown are for metric ton (2,204.62 lbs. = 1 metric ton), F.O.B., except where otherwise indicates; op = option

January 20, 2011


In 2009, containers were used to transport 5 percent of total waterborne grain exports, and 6 percent of U.S. grain ex-

ports to Asia.

Figure 18

Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service (PIERS)

Note: The following Harmonized Tariff Codes are used to calculate containerized grains movements (recently added codes are

highlighted in bold type): 100190, 100200, 100300, 100400, 100590, 100700, 110100, 230310, 110220, 110290, 120100,

230210, 230990, 230330, and 120810.

Top 10 Destination Markets for U.S. Containerized Grain Exports, October 2010

Taiwan

33%

Indonesia

18%

China

14%Thailand

6%

Japan

6%

Philippines

5%

Vietnam

4%

Malaysia

3%

Korea

2%Hong Kong

1%

Other

8%

Figure 19

Monthly Shipments of Containerized Grain to Asia

Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service (PIERS), Journal of Commerce

Note: The following Harmonized Tariff Codes are used to calculate containerized grains movements (recently added codes are

highlighted in bold type): 100190, 100200, 100300, 100400, 100590, 100700, 110100, 230310, 110220, 110290, 120100,

230210, 230990, 230330, and 120810.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan

.

Feb

.

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.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Au

g.

Sep

.

Oct

.

No

v.

Dec

.

Th

ou

san

d 2

0-f

t eq

uiv

ale

nt

un

its

2010

3-year average

October 2010: Up 42% from October 2009 and up 15% from the 3-year average

January 20, 2011


Coordinators

Surajudeen (Deen) Olowolayemo [email protected] (202) 694 - 3050

Pierre Bahizi [email protected] (202) 694 - 2503

Weekly Highlight Editors

Marina Denicoff [email protected] (202) 694 - 2504


April Taylor [email protected] (202) 295 - 7374

Grain Transportation Indicators


Rail Transportation

Marvin Prater [email protected] (202) 694 - 3051

Johnny Hill [email protected] (202) 694 - 2506

Barge Transportation

Nicholas Marathon [email protected] (202) 694 - 2508


Truck Transportation


Grain Exports

Johnny Hill [email protected] (202) 694 - 2506

Marina Denicoff [email protected] (202) 694 - 2504

Ocean Transportation


(Freight rates and vessels)


(Container movements)

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(printed copies are also available upon request).

Contacts and Links

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