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A weaker Irene expected at high tide

http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking/a-weaker-irene-expected-at-high-tide-1.3124773[9/1/2011 9:49:29 AM]

center of Irene is likely to hit either the South Shore coast or theNorth Shore at or close to high tide, depending on when it arrives.

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Ross Dickman, the Weather Service meteorologist in charge inUpton, said the forecast calls for a "low-end Category 1" storm withwind speeds of 75 to 90 mph, with higher gusts.

The big question is when the storm's center -- with the most severeweather -- comes ashore. Dickman said Friday to expect that from 8a.m. to noon Sunday.

If it's on the early part of that spectrum, it will hit the South Shorebeaches at or near high tide, making the accompanying storm surgethat much more destructive. If the center passes over closer tonoon, it will more closely coincide with high tides on the NorthShore, such as in Bayville, where high tide is about 11 a.m.

To the east of the storm track line, winds will be from the east oreast-southeast as the storm approaches and then shift northeastand then northwest after the center crosses the Island, Stark said.West of the track, winds will be more northeast to north as the stormapproaches and then shift to northwest or west as the centerpasses. These directions have implications for boats and beaches.Beaches in places like Bayville, Asharoken, Orient Point and thenorth side of Montauk are vulnerable to high winds from thenortheast.

"It's a new moon so we're having tides that are a little bit higher thannormal," said Jay Tanski, a coastal researcher with the New YorkState Sea Grant Extension Program. So "the timing is going to bevery, very important."

Tanski said Irene so far is following a track similar to Gloria's."Gloria came through an hour after low tide," he said, so even witha record storm surge of about 7 feet in southwestern Nassau, itcaused limited coastal flooding.

With Irene, he said, "it could get very bad" east of the storm track onthe South Shore or on the North Shore west of the track dependingon the tide.

"This storm is a little bit slower-moving than Gloria was," he said."Gloria came through at about 20 miles an hour so it was in and out.This storm is also bigger than Gloria was. So it's going to be abigger, slower moving storm" which means there will be more timefor larger waves to form, and those waves will pound the shorelinelonger. That will exacerbate the storm surge problem and causeerosion.

Tanski warned people not to be complacent just because they camethrough Hurricane Gloria unscathed. He expects coastal flooding inthis storm to be worse because even though the wind speeds will belower, that will be more than offset by the higher tides and largerstorm surge. With Irene, he said, “it could get very bad.”Nonetheless, on the South Shore, he said, models show oceanswells as high as 28 feet. "That can pile up water on the shoreline,"Tanski said.

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Evacuations urged inHempstead

Mangano urgespreparation

Suffolk's stormpreparations

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newsday.comA weaker Irene expected at high tide

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