a vision for the future of computer science and higher ...€¦ · innovation –latest for lasik...

$: A Vision for the Future of Computer Science and Higher ...€¦ · Innovation –latest for LASIK laser refractive surgicaltechniques ... (SDL) worldview – All economic interactions$
A Vision for the Future of Computer Science and Higher

Education: Augmenting and scaling human expertise with

cognitive assistants in smart service systems

Jim Spohrer, IBM

Director, Global University Programs (GUP) and Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG)

UNIMORE, ITALY Monday June 8th, 2015http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future-cs-universities-20150608v2

6/10/2015

© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University

Programs Worldwide accelerating regional

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IBM operates in 170 countries

around the globe

Acquisitions contribute significantly

to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in

last decade

Number 1 in patent

generation for more

than two decades

More than 40% of IBMs

workforce does

business away from an

office

5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the

President’’’’s National

Medal of Technology &

Innovation – latest for

LASIK laser refractive

surgical techniques

The Smartest Machine On Earth

100 Years of Business &

Innovation in 2011

New Era in IBM’’’’s Leadership

IBM Growth Initiatives

IBM has

~400,000

employees

worldwide

Technology:

Network Digital Revolution

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Cloud

Social

Internet of Things

Mobile

Cognitive Security

Analytics

Cyber-Physical Systems

Smarter Planet

Smart Service Systems Industry 4.0

History of Computing

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IBM Academic Initiatives Cloud

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IBM TrueNorth Chip

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Complementary

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Summary

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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations

are beginning to appear

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Today’s Talk

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“A service science

perspective considers

the evolving ecology of

service system entities,

value co-creation and

capability co-elevation

Interactions, their

capabilities, constraints,

rights, and responsibilities.

Cognitive Systems

Service

Systems

Cognitive

Assistants

Rights &

Responsibilities

People:

From I to T-shape and Beyond!

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© IBM 2013 IBM University Programs

worldwide accelerating regional

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Many disciplines

Many sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

De

ep

in o

ne

secto

r

De

ep

in o

ne

reg

ion

/cultu

re

De

ep

in o

ne

discip

line

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Moore’s-Like Law for

Smart Service Systems

Computational System

Smarter Technology

Requires investment roadmap

Service Systems: Stakeholders & Resources

1. People 2. Technology3. Shared Information4. Organizations

connected by win-win value propositions

Smarter Buildings, Universities, Cities

Requires investment roadmap

2036 Trends:

Industries & Professions Transformed

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Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

Brief History

of AI1956 – Dartmouth Conference

1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds

1981 – Japanese 5th Generation

1988 – Expert Systems Peak

1990 – AI Winter

1997 – Deep Blue

1997 – 2011 Real-World

2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI

2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute

2014 – Watson Business Unit

2015 – “Cognition as a Service”on IBM Bluemix

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Vision: Augment & Scale Expertise

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Cognitive Assistants - Occupations

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Biochemist/Biochemical Engineer

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Occupations = Many Tasks

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Watson Discovery Advisor

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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.

URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models

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New Era of Computing:

Cognitive Technologies & Componentry

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�Natural Language– Reasoning, Logic & Planning– Symbolic Processing– Natural Language Processing– Ranking of Hypotheses– Knowledge Representations– Domain-Specific Ontologies– Information Storage/Retrieval– Machine Learning, Reasoning– Von Neumann Componentry– OpenPOWER Systems

�Pattern Recognition– Recognition, Sensing & Acting– Pattern Processing– Image & Speech Processing– Ranking of Hypotheses– Pattern Representations– Domain-Specific Neural Nets– Information Storage/Retrieval– Machine Learning, Perception– Neuromorphic Componentry– TrueNorth & Corelets Systems

AI for IA:

Intelligence

Augmentation

Cognitive Systems

(“Cogs”) that boost

learning,

discovery,

engagement,

transformation, and

long-range planning.

Cognition as a Service

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Watson Platform on BlueMix

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CSIG: Cognitive Systems Institute Group

� LinkedIn discussion� Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452

� Web site for resource sharing

� cognitive-science.info

� Bluemix

� ibm.biz/HackBluemix

� ibm.biz/LearnBluemix

� $0.07 per GB-Hour (*)

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* = check online for current pricing info

Smarter, Yes! But Wiser?

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Smarter Service Systems Workshop

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National Science FoundationA feature of a service system is the

participation and cooperation of the customer

in the service and its delivery. A service system

then requires an integration of knowledge and

technologies from a range of disciplines, often

including engineering, computer science, social

science, behavioral science, and cognitive

science, paired with market knowledge to

increase its social benefit.

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ISSIP.orgProfessional Development for Service Innovators

• 2015 Conferences– HICSS, Honolulu, HI, Jan 5-8

– T Summit, E Lansing, MI, Mar 16-17

– ICSERV,San Jose, CA July 6-8

– Frontiers, San Jose, CA July 9-12

– AHFE HSSE,Las Vegas, NV July 23-27

6/10/2015 (c) 2014 IBM UP (University Programs) 27

Professionals Associations & T-Shapes

• ISSIP

• INFORMS

• IEEE

• ACM

• AMA (Marketing)

• AIS

• POMS

• TSIA

For more complete list of 24 see: http://service-science.info/archives/1982

http://tsummit2014.org

Journals

For more see: http://service-science.info/archives/2634

Paul Maglio, Editor Mary Jo Bitner, Editor

Readings & Textbooks

See http://service-science.info/archives/2708 http://service-science.info/archives/1931

Recent Report, Funding, etc.

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop/

http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2014/nsf14610/nsf14610.htm

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/NSF-Industry-Academe-Enabling-Smart-5109582

http://web.mit.edu/mitssrc/nsf/index.html

Conferences

• HICSS (Jan Hawaii) – 1000

• AAAI (Jan Austin) – 2000

• InterConnect (Feb Las Vegas) - 3000

• Service System Symposium (Feb Tokyo) - 100

• T Summit (Mar Michigan) – 250

• CogSci (May Los Angeles) – 500

• Service System Forum (May Venice) - 200

• Naples Forum (June Naples) – 150

• ICServ (July San Jose) – 120

• Frontiers (July San Jose) – 250

• AHFE HSSE (July Las Vegas) – 3000

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Thinking About Value

• Service as value co-creation

– The application of knowledge for

mutual benefits (outcomes) when

entities interact

• Service innovations scale benefits

– Role of platforms (tech, biz, social)

• Service experience

– Expectations, Interactions, Outcomes

Basics

• Service science is the study of service systems and value-cocreation interactions and outcomes, through the lens of a service-dominant logic (SDL) worldview

– All economic interactions are direct or indirect service interactions

– Goods are vehicles for indirect service interactions

• SDL (Vargo & Lusch) defines service as…

– the application of competence (e.g., knowledge) for the benefit of another entity

– slightly more specific, easier to understand

• Service science (Spohrer & Maglio) defines service as…

– value-cocreation interactions among service system entities

– slightly more general, harder to understand

Service Systems Thinking: ABC’s

A. Service Provider

• Individual

• Institution

• Public or Private

C. Service Target: The reality to be

transformed or operated on by A,

for the sake of B

• Individuals or people, dimensions of

• Institutions or business and societal organizations,

organizational (role configuration) dimensions of

• Infrastructure/Product/Technology/Environment,

physical dimensions of

• Information or Knowledge, symbolic dimensions

B. Service Customer

• Individual

• Institution

• Public or Private

Forms of

Ownership Relationship

(B on C)

Forms of

Service Relationship

(A & B co-create value)

Forms of

Responsibility Relationship

(A on C)

Forms of

Service Interventions

(A on C, B on C)

Spohrer, J., Maglio, P. P., Bailey, J. & Gruhl, D. (2007). Steps

toward a science of service systems. Computer, 40, 71-77.

From… Gadrey (2002), Pine & Gilmore (1998), Hill (1977)

Vargo, S. L. & Lusch, R. F. (2004). Evolving to a new

dominant logic for marketing. Journal of Marketing, 68, 1 – 17.

“Service is the application ofcompetence for the benefit

of another entity.”

Example Provider: College (A)

Example Target: Student (C)

Discuss: Who is the Customer (B)?

- Student? They benefit…

- Parents? They often pay…

- Future Employers? They benefit…

- Professional Associations?

- Government, Society?

A B

C

Service Science: Conceptual Framework

• Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information• Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors• Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation• Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged

Ecology(Populations & Diversity)

Entities(Service Systems, both

Individuals & Institutions)

Interactions(Service Networks,

link, nest, merge, divide)

Outcomes(Value Changes, both

beneficial and non-beneficial)

Value Proposition(Offers & Reconfigurations/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Governance Mechanism(Rules & Constraints/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Access Rights(Relationships of Entities)

Measures(Rankings of Entities)

Resources(Competences, Roles in Processes,

Specialized, Integrated/Holistic)

Stakeholders(Processes of Valuing,

Perspectives, Engagement)

Identity(Aspirations & Lifecycle/

History)

Reputation(Opportunities & Variety/

History)

prefer sustainable

non-zero-sum

outcomes,

i.e., win-win

win-win

lose-lose win-lose

lose-win

Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.

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Service system entities configure four types of resources

• First foundational premise of service science:

– Service system entities dynamically configurefour types of resources

– Resources are the building blocks of entity architectures

• Named resources are:– Physical or

– Not-Physical

– Physicist resolve disputes

• Named resources have:– Rights or

– No Rights

– Judges resolve disputes

Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009)

Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet.

In Introduction to Service Engineering.

Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ..

Physical

Not-Physical

Rights No-Rights

2. Technology/EnvironmentInfrastructure

4. SharedInformation/

SymbolicKnowledge

1. People/Individuals

3. Organizations/Institutions

Formal service systems can contract to configure resources/apply competence

Informal service systems can promise to configure resources/apply competence

Trends & Countertrends (Balance Chaos & Order):(Promise) Informal <> Formal (Contract)

(Relationships & Attention) Social <> Economic (Money & Capacity)

(Power) Political <> Legal (Rules)

(Evolved) Natural <> Artificial (Designed)

(Creativity) Cognitive Labor <> Information Technology (Routine)

(Dance) Physical Labor <> Mechanical Technology (Routine)

(Relationships) Social Labor <> Transaction Processing (Routine)

(Atoms) Transportation <> Communication (Bits)

(Tacit) Qualitative <> Quantitative (Explicit)

(Secret) Private <> Public (Shared)

(Anxiety-Risk) Challenge <> Routine (Boredom-Certainty)

(Mystery) Unknown <> Known (Justified True Belief)

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Service system entities calculate value from multiple stakeholder perspectives

• Second foundational premise of service science

– Service system entities calculate value from multiple stakeholder perspectives

– Value propositions are the building blocks of service networks

• A value propositions can be viewed as a request from one service system to another to run an algorithm (the value proposition) from the perspectives of multiple stakeholders according to culturally determined value principles.

• The four primary stakeholder perspectives are: customer, provider, authority, and competitor

– Citizens: special customers

– Entrepreneurs: special providers

– Parents: special authority

– Criminals: special competitors

Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009) Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet. In

Introduction to Service Engineering. Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ..

Model of competitor: Does it put us ahead? Can we stay ahead? Does it differentiate us from the competition?

Will we?(invest tomake it so)

StrategicSustainable Innovation(Marketshare)

4.Competitor

(Substitute)

Model of authority: Is it legal? Does it compromise our integrity in any way? Does it create a moral hazard?

May we?(offer anddeliver it)

RegulatedCompliance(Taxes andFines, Quality of Life)

3.Authority

Model of self: Does it play to our strengths? Can we deliver it profitably to customers? Can we continue to improve?

Can we?(deliver it)

CostPlus

Productivity(Profit, Mission, Continuous Improvement, Sustainability)

2.Provider

Model of customer: Do customers want it? Is there a market? How large? Growth rate?

Should we?(offer it)

ValueBased

Quality(Revenue)

1.Customer

Value

Proposition

Reasoning

Basic

Questions

Pricing

Decision

Measure

Impacted

Stakeholder

Perspective

(the players)

Value propositions coordinate & motivate resource access

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Service system entities reconfigure access rights to resources by mutually agreed to value

propositions

• Third foundational premise of service science

– Service system entities reconfigure access rights to resources by mutually agreed to value propositions

– Access rights are the building blocks of the service ecology (culture and information)

• Access rights

– Access to resources that are owned outright (i.e., property)

– Access to resource that are leased/contracted for (i.e., rental car, home ownership via mortgage, insurance policies, etc.)

– Shared access (i.e., roads, web information, air, etc.)

– Privileged access (i.e., personal thoughts, inalienable kinship relationships, etc.)

service = value-cocreationB2B

B2C

B2G

G2C

G2B

G2G

C2C

C2B

C2G

***

provider resourcesOwned Outright

Leased/Contract

Shared Access

Privileged Access

customer resourcesOwned Outright

Leased/Contract

Shared Access

Privileged Access

OO

SA

PA

LC

OO

LC

SA

PA

S AP C

Competitor Provider Customer Authority

value-proposition

change-experience

dynamic-configurations

(substitute)

time

Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009)

Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet.

In Introduction to Service Engineering.

Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ..

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Service system entities interact to create ten types of outcomes

• Four possible outcomes from a two player game

• ISPAR generalizes to ten possible outcomes

– win-win: 1,2,3– lose-lose: 5,6, 7, maybe 4,8,10– lose-win: 9, maybe 8, 10– win-lose: maybe 4

lose-win(coercion)

win-win(value-cocreation)

lose-lose(co-destruction)

win-lose(loss-lead)

Win

Lo

se

Pro

vid

er

Lose Win

Customer

ISPAR descriptive model

Maglio PP, SL Vargo, N Caswell, J Spohrer: (2009) The service system is the basic abstraction of service science. Inf. Syst. E-Business Management 7(4): 395-406 (2009)

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Service system entities learn to systematically exploit technology:Technology can perform routine manual, cognitive, transactional work

L

Learning Systems

(““““Choice & Change””””)

Exploitation(James March)

Exploration(James March)

Run/Practice-Reduce

(IBM)

Transform/Follow

(IBM)

Innovate/Lead

(IBM)

Operations Costs

Maintenance Costs

Incidence Planning &

Response Costs (Insure)

Incremental

Radical

Super-Radical

Internal

External

Interactions

“To bethe best,

learn from

the rest”

“Doublemonetize,

internal win

and ‘sell’ to

external”

“Try tooperate

inside

the

comfort

zone”

March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.

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Service system entities are physical-

symbol systems• Service is value cocreation.

• Service system entities reason about value.

• Value cocreation is a kind of joint activity.

• Joint activity depends on communication and grounding.

• Reasoning about value and communication are (often) effective symbolic processes.

Newell, A (1980) Physical symbol systems, Cognitive Science, 4, 135-183.

Newell, A & HA Simon(1976). Computer science as empirical inquiry: symbols and search. Communications of the ACM, 19, 113-126.

43

Summary

Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009) Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet. In Introduction to Service Engineering. Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ..

Physical

Not-Physical

Rights No-Rights

2. Technology/

Infrastructure

4.. Shared

Information

1. People/

Individuals

3. Organizations/

Institutions

1. Dynamically configure resources (4 I’s)

Model of competitor: Does it put us ahead?

Will we?StrategicSustainable Innovation

4.Competitor/

Substitutes

Model of authority: Is it legal?

May we?RegulatedCompliance3.Authority

Model of self: Does it play to our strengths?

Can we?CostPlus

Productivity2.Provider

Model of customer: Do customers want it?

Should we?Value Based

Quality1.Customer

ReasoningQuestionsPricingMeasure

Impacted

Stakeholder

Perspective

2. Value from stakeholder perspectives

S AP C

3. Reconfigure access rights

4. Ten types of outcomes (ISPAR)

5. Exploit information & technology

6. Physical-Symbol Systems

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Learning More

About Service Systems…

• Fitzsimmons & Fitzsimmons– Graduate Students

– Schools of Engineering & Businesses

• Teboul– Undergraduates

– Schools of Business & Social Sciences

– Busy execs (4 hour read)

• Ricketts– Practitioners

– Manufacturers In Transition

• And 200 other books…– Zeithaml, Bitner, Gremler; Gronross, Chase, Jacobs, Aquilano;

Davis, Heineke; Heskett, Sasser, Schlesingher; Sampson; Lovelock, Wirtz, Chew; Alter; Baldwin, Clark; Beinhocker; Berry; Bryson, Daniels, Warf; Checkland, Holwell; Cooper,Edgett; Hopp, Spearman; Womack, Jones; Johnston; Heizer, Render; Milgrom, Roberts; Norman; Pine, Gilmore; Sterman; Weinberg; Woods, Degramo; Wooldridge; Wright; etc.

• URL: http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/ssme/refmenu.asp

• More Textbooks: http://service-science.info/archives/1931

�Reaching the Goal:

How Managers Improve

a Services Business

Using Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints�By John Ricketts, IBM

�Service Management:

Operations, Strategy,

and Information

Technology�By Fitzsimmons and

Fitzsimmons, UTexas

�Service Is Front Stage:

Positioning services for

value advantage�By James Teboul, INSEAD

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Service Innovators

• ISSIP = International Society of Service Innovation Professionals

• T-shaped Professionals– Depth

– Breadth

• Register at:– ISSIP.org

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Smarter, yes

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Ken Jennings jokingly wrote: “(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)”

But wiser?

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“Wise leaders make decisions only after they figure out

what is good for the organization and society.”

“Practical wisdom is tacit knowledge acquired from experience that enables people to make

prudent judgments and take actions based on the actual situation, guided by values and morals.”

Iwano: Cyber + Reality 1.0 = Reality 2.0

The emerging “cyber-coated reality”

• Reality 1.0 Relationships �

• Reality 2.0 Relationships include Cyber-relationships:– “Cogs” for all roles

• People-people

• People-organizations

• People-things

• People-information

– Cogs = cognitive assistant intermediary

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Source: ResourcesForLife.com

What is “cyber-coated reality” like?• From Bacteria to “nervous-system-

coated reality”

• From Simple Machines to “cyber-coated reality”

• Complex Adaptive Systems– Physical systems

– Chemical systems

– Biological systems

– Social systems

– Socio-technical systems

– Physical symbol systems

– Cognitive systems

– Service systems• Capabilities & Constraints

• Rights & Responsibilities

– Smart service systems• AKA “cognitive service systems”

– Wise service systems

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Source teachersparadise.com

Progression

• Tool

• Assistant

• Collaborator

• ?

– Fear: “overlord”

– Design goal: “moral

entity”

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Source Amazon.com

First three items from a discussion with

Paul Maglio (UCMerced) & Don Norman (UCSD)

Future Research Directions

• “The CSIG Algorithm”

• Cognitive Assistants for Policy Maker

– “Debater” is coming

– Objective functions for other entities

• Wise/Wisdom Computing Needs:

– Literature review

– Roadmap of steps

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Source http://www.linkedin/group/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452

Literature Review

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Related Work: Steve Omohundro

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Source http://www.parc.com/event/2127/ai-and-robotics-at-an-inflection-point.html

Join ISSIP.orgProfessional Development for Smart Service System Innovators

• 2015 Conferences– HICSS, Honolulu, HI, Jan 5-8

– T Summit, E Lansing, MI, Mar 16-17

– ICSERV,San Jose, CA July 6-8

– Frontiers, San Jose, CA July 9-12

– AHFE HSSE,Las Vegas, NV July 23-27

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New Species

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Apple

SiriIBM

Watson

Microsoft

Cortana

Google

NowAmazon

Echo

Jim Spohrer, IBM

• Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director IBM Global University

Programs and leads IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute. The

Cognitive Systems Institute works to align cognitive systems

researchers in academics, government, and industry globally to

improve productivity and creativity of problem-solving

professionals, transforming learning, discovery, and sustainable

development. IBM University Programs works to align IBM and

universities globally for innovation amplification and T-shaped

skills. Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP

Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s

Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded

Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and

Technology title for his work on next generation learning

platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial

Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include

service science, cognitive systems for smart holistic service

systems, especially universities and cities. With over ninety

publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a

winner of the S-D Logic award.

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Professional Roles

• Director Global University Programs and Cognitive Systems Institute (2014 - )– http://cognitive-science.info

– Cognitive Assistants for all occupations in smart service systems

• Director IBM Global University Programs (2009 – 2014)– http://www.ibm.com/university

– 6 R’s - research, readiness, recruiting, revenue, responsibility, regions)

– Universities as “smarter service systems” and startup engines of their regions

• Founding Director of IBM’s first Service Research group (2003 - 2009)– http://www.service-science.info

– Service Science (short for Service Science Management Engineering Design Arts Public Policy)

– http://www.issip.org

– International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP)

• Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group (1999-2002)

• Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)

• Student: Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)

• Researcher: Dialogue Systems/VERBEX – Speech Recognition Startup (1978-1982)

• Student: B.S. in Physics from MIT (1974-1978)

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60

Measuring Impact (2003-2009)• SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment

– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR

• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better

• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures

• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)

• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)

– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities

– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications

– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations

– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions

– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)

– External: International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP)

• Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)

– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)

– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)

– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)

– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)

– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)

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