A study on the discrepancy of the ideal and actual parity among

Hong Kong married women

Mengni Chen and Paul S. F. Yip

The University of Hong Kong

ABSTRACT The prolonged low fertility of Hong Kong reflects some changes in people’s fertility desire and indicates some barriers to childbearing among married couples. This paper examines recent trends of the fertility desire, investigates the factors influencing childbearing intentions, and reveals the underlying motivations as well as difficulties of childrearing experienced by couples at different parity levels. Based on the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) survey of married women in Hong Kong in 2012, we conduct parity-specific logistic regressions focusing on the fertility intention of the transition from parity 0 to 1, parity 1 to 2, and parity 2 to 3. Our results show the following: (a) marital life satisfaction, the ideal parity, household income, and good communication with husband about childbearing decision are significantly associated with the intention of women at parity 0 to have their first child; (b) wife’s working status, especially having a part-time job, and the gap between ideal and actual parity are associated with women’s intention to have a second child; (c) wife’s working status, especially having a full-time job, and gender inequality in the division of housework are factors significantly related to women’s intention to have a third child. Our results suggest that the factors, motivations, and difficulties associated with childbearing and childrearing differ across parity levels. The results would be applicable to women in other high-income Asian countries. The formulation of any pronatalist policies in Hong Kong should consider these parity-specific differences.

Introduction

Hong Kong’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 1.9 children per woman in 1981

to 1.1 in 2013 (HKCSD, 2012, 2014) and is projected to remain below 1.2 for the next

50 years (HKCSD, 2015). Currently, the TFRs of Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and South

Korea are all below 1.5 children per woman (Quah, 2015) and may remain at a low

level for the near future (Basten, 2013; Frejka, Jones, & Sardon, 2010). The transition

to an ultra-low level of fertility in these high-income Asian economies was driven by

substantial changes in marital structure—delayed marriage and increasing non-

marriage—as well as changes in childbearing behaviour (Straughan, Chan, & Jones,

2008; Yip & Lee, 2002; Yip, Li, Xie, & Lam, 2006). With the rise of women’s

educational attainment and labour force participation rate, marriages have been greatly

delayed and/or reduced. Meanwhile, lower-order births are now being postponed until

women are in their thirties and higher-order births are declining. Both the ‘tempo effect’

and the ‘quantum effect’ (Bongaarts & Feeney, 1998) have depressed the fertility rate

of married women. With an ageing population and the shrinkage of the workforce, the

low fertility issue has had a substantial impact on the population structure and has

become a major challenge to the sustainable development of Hong Kong and other

high-income Asian countries.

The prevalent behaviour of delaying marriage among young generations may be “a

direct response to a desire to avoid or delay childbearing” (Frejka et al., 2010). Low

fertility among married couples may also reflect changes in their fertility desires and

intentions (Berrington, 2004; Billingsley & Ferrarini, 2014). Given the widespread

fertility decline in the world, many recent studies have attempted to investigate (a)

whether the observed childbearing behaviour adequately reflects people’s aspirations

and preferences for children and (b) the potential factors leading to the unrealized gap

between people’s ideal and actual parity (Philipov, 2009). Here, we are interested in

investigating how the fertility desire of Hong Kong married couples have changed over

the past 20 years, and what concerns and motivations lie behind their fertility intentions.

Fertility plan and fertility behaviour are parts of a sequential decision-making

process that is very sensitive to changes in individuals’ circumstances; and factors

affecting childbearing may vary as the actual number of children increases (Namboodiri,

1972; Udry, 1983). Having a first child is very different from the transition to parity 2

or 3. With the arrival of their first child, a husband and a wife irreversibly become a

father and a mother. The transition to parenthood is a long-term commitment which

may be more sensitive to the instability of economic conditions and partnerships

(Blossfeld, Klijzing, Mills, & Kurz, 2006). The decision to have a second or third child

may be closely related to the previous experience of raising the first child (Billari,

Philipov, & Testa, 2009; Margolis & Myrskylä, 2014). In East and South Asia, gender

inequality within the household may prevent the transition to parity 2 or 3 (Frejka et al.,

2010; McDonald, 2000) as the burden of housework and childcare often falls on the

mother’s shoulders. After having their first child, women who have a bad experience of

playing the conflicting roles of mother and worker may no long intend additional births.

A recent study on Korea has found that husbands sharing the burden of housework does

have a positive effect on intention to have a second child (E. H.-W. Kim, 2013).

Therefore, noting these heterogeneities across the parity levels, this paper aims to

answer the following research question: “For women with no children, one child, or

two children, what are the factors or barriers related to their childbearing intentions?”

By identifying the barriers to childbearing for women at different parity levels, some

insights can be generated for formulating efficient pronatalist policies. In this study, we

first investigate the trends of fertility desire and the profiles of the fertility gap (i.e. the

discrepancy between ideal and actual parity). We then examine the factors associated

with parity-specific fertility intentions and compare the motivations to have children

and the childrearing difficulties of couples at different parity levels.

Literature review

Fertility desires and fertility intentions are two important concepts in studying the

childbearing behaviour, and sometimes are used interchangeably. However, there are

some differences between the two. The fertility desire, which is often measured by

“ideal family size” or “ideal number of children”, reflects a wish of childbearing under

an ideal context; and may be influenced by personal traits, preferences, likes and values

(Miller, 2011; Philipov, 2009). The fertility intention is often measured by asking

whether a person intend to have a/another child in the future or in a certain period of

time, and emphasizes more on the actionability, commitment and planning (Miller,

2011). Compared to fertility desires, fertility intentions is a more realistic measure

(Philipov, 2009): on one hand, it will be influenced by the desire; on the other hand, it

is relatively more susceptible to changes in the contextual factors and individual

circumstances (Billari et al., 2009; Miller, 2011; Philipov, 2009). Hence, the fertility

intention is a very crucial link through which individuals transfer their fertility desire

into actual behaviour.

Till now, Hong Kong’s fertility has remained below the lowest-low level (i.e. TFR

of 1.3 children per woman or below) for almost 30 years. And the preference for small

families is prevailing and seems to have become a norm rather than an exception,

reflecting a decline in the fertility desire (Yip et al., 2006). Under this context,

investigating the fertility desire and intention together may help us understand whether

Hong Kong’s low fertility is driven by low fertility intention due to some removable

barriers, or is driven by an irreversible change in people’s desire for children.

After comparing the childbearing patterns in East Asia, Gavin Jones has pointed

out several common factors for the ultra-low fertility in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea,

Japan, and Singapore: increasing job insecurity; gender inequality within the household;

a trade-off between child quantity and child quality, with increasing educational

expectations for children; and changes in the aspiration of the young generations

underlying the fast economic growth, rapid globalization and expansion of higher

education system (Frejka et al., 2010; G. W. Jones, 2012). Empirical studies from

western countries have demonstrated that the impacts of these factors are parity-specific.

On the economic insecurity, studies have shown that it will depress people’s intention

to have first or second child (Fiori, Rinesi, Pinnelli, & Prati, 2013; Kreyenfeld &

Andersson, 2014), which are consistent to the “risk aversion theory” that individuals

will invest more in education or work to reduce their economic insecurity and avoid

risk behaviour such as childbearing (Becker, 2009). Regarding the gender inequality,

the negative impact on the fertility intention- especially on second births- is evidenced

in many countries (Cooke, 2003; Mencarini & Tanturri, 2004; Mills, Mencarini,

Tanturri, & Begall, 2008; Oláh, 2003), which is termed as “the second shift” for a

second births (Torr & Short, 2004).

Apart from the aforementioned factors, the partnership quality which has been

discussed in the West, is still lack of attention in eastern societies. In Asia, the majority

of childbearing still takes place within marriage. The quality of marriage may have an

impact on fertility intention, but whether positive or negative is still in hot debate.

Theoretically, couples in good marriage may avoid childbearing as the arrival of

children may decrease their happiness, while couples in bad marriages may see children

as a solution to marriage crises (Friedman, Hechter, & Kanazawa, 1994). However,

empirical studies have revealed that good partnership is associated with higher

likelihood of first and second birth (Berninger, Weiß, & Wagner, 2011; Rijken &

Thomson, 2011). In Hong Kong and other neighbouring countries, relevant research at

the micro level is still very limited, although the declining fertility rate and the

increasing divorce rate have been concurrently observed at the population level.

In sum, this paper takes efforts to investigate the fertility intention among married

couples in a parity-specific approach. This is one of the very few studies focusing on

the decision-making process of childbearing in the context of Hong Kong. Our analysis

may help reveal to what extent the discrepancy between ideal and actual parity can be

narrowed or even closed, adding knowledge to Hong Kong’s low fertility issue.

Data and methods

The present study mainly made use of data from the latest Knowledge, Attitude and

Practice (KAP) survey conducted by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong

(FPAHK) from 1992 to 2012. The KAP survey is the longest running community-based

survey of family planning in Hong Kong and has been implemented every five years

since 1967. The topics of the survey cover a wide range of family planning issues

among married or cohabiting women aged 15 to 49 years. The sampling frame was the

Frame of Quarters, which has been maintained by the Census and Statistical

Department of Hong Kong. The basic unit for respondent selection was the nuclear

family, from which the eligible woman (aged 15-49 and married or cohabiting) was

asked to participate in the survey. The sampling yielded 1,518 married or cohabiting

women aged 15 to 49, with a response rate of 83%, and 1,059 husbands or partners,

with a response rate of 70%. For comparison with previous waves of the KAP survey,

we only used the sample of 1,518 women in order to capture the trends of fertility desire.

However, for a further regression analysis, our samples consisted of 1,029 couples after

excluding 11 respondents who or whose husbands were born infertile and following

some data cleaning.

Fertility desire was measured by the ideal parity (i.e. the ideal number of children)

by asking married women the question “How many children do you want ideally?” The

question “How many children do you have currently?” was used to evaluate the actual

number of children the women had. The fertility gap refers to the discrepancy between

the ideal and actual number of children. To measure fertility intentions, married women

who already had children were asked the question “Would you like to give birth again?”

and the married women who had no children were asked the question “Would you like

to give birth?” The question on fertility intention is placed after the question for fertility

desire in the questionnaire. The response options were as follows: “1 = yes,” “2 = no,”

“3= have not decided,” and “4 = don’t know.”

Several demographic and socioeconomic variables were evaluated, including age,

whether respondent was a Hong Kong permanent resident, birthplace, religion,

educational attainment, type of housing (public rental, temporary, non-residential,

subsidized purchasing, or private permanent house), employment status, occupation,

and monthly household income. Communication between husband and wife on

childbearing decisions was controlled, and measured by two questions: “Have you had

a discussion with your husband on the number of children to have?”; “Do you and your

husband have the same opinion on the number of children you should have?”

We are interested in the impact of partnership quality, and gender inequality in

housework on childbearing intention across different parity levels. To examine a

couple’s relationship, two questions were asked: “Compared with the past 12 months,

what do you think of your current relationship with your spouse?” (responses ranged

from “1 = much better” to “5 = much worse”); “Currently, are you satisfied with your

marital life?” (responses ranged from “1 = very satisfied” to “5 = very dissatisfied”).

As the KAP survey included questions on the proportions of housework done by the

wife and the husband, gender inequality in housework was measured by taking the

difference between the two proportions—the larger the difference, the higher the

inequality in the division of housework.

A series of logistic regression models was used to examine the intention of women

to have a/another child. The first model examined the factors associated with the

intention to have a/another child among the married women overall; the second, third,

and fourth models were parity-specific regressions focusing on the intention to make

the transition from parity 0 to 1, parity 1 to 2, and parity 2 to 3, respectively. Stata 13.0

was used for the statistical analyses.

Results

Ideal number of children during the period 1992 to 2012

The average ideal parity and actual parity trends during the period 1992 to 2012 were

estimated on the basis of the 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 KAP surveys and are

shown in Figure 1 (a). The average actual parity decreased from about 2 children in

1992 to 1.2 children in 2012, while the ideal parity dropped from 1.9 children in 1992

and seems to have stabilized at 1.6-1.7 since 2002. Notably, the gap between ideal and

actual parity has widened greatly since 2007, indicating that a certain proportion of

couples have failed to realize their fertility desire. In addition, Figure 1 (b) shows the

distribution of the ideal number of children among married women in the recent five

waves of surveys. Over the past 20 years, there has been a great decline in the desire

for a traditional two-child family. In 1992, 65% of the respondents desired two children,

but this proportion decreased to 56% in 2012. The desire for three or more children has

also shrunk: in 1992, 18% reported their ideal parity as being three children or more;

by 2012, this proportion had dropped to 9%. However, the preference for a one-child

family has been increasing: in 1992, 12% desired only one child, while in 2012, this

proportion increased to 29%. As the average ideal parity declines in Hong Kong and

other advanced Asian economies as well, many demographers believe that changes in

reproductive values, norms, and aspirations have taken place silently behind the decline

in nuptiality and TFR, indicating the arrival of “the second demographic transition” in

Asia (Atoh, Kandiah, & Ivanov, 2004; Frejka et al., 2010).

Figure 1 Distribution of ideal number of children from the KAP surveys 1992-2012

Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of women data from KAP 1992, 1997,

2002, 2007, 2012

Childbearing intentions and fertility gap: the parity-specific pattern

Our further analysis was based on the 2012 KAP survey. As the average fertility gap

was much wider in 2012 (see Figure 1 (a)), we broke down the ideal parity among

married women by the actual parity level. Table 1 shows the fertility gap and fertility

intentions at different actual parity levels. Among women at parity 0, 28.4% reported

that their ideal number of children was zero, about 71.6 % had not realized their ideal

number of children; and 49.1% expressed their intention to have a child in the future.

Among women at parity 1, 47.8% had achieved their ideal parity and about 51.5%

(=49.9% + 1.3% +0.3%) had not realized their ideal parity, but only about 19.2%% of

them intended to have a second child. Among women at parity 2, 83.4% had given birth

to children up to their ideal level, but only about 5.8% of them indicated their intention

to have a third child. In contrast to the fertility intentions of women at parity 0, those

who already had one or two children seemed to make their childbearing decisions more

prudently. This table indicates that the transition to parenthood (i.e. from no child to 1

child) may be very different from the transition to parity 2 or 3.

Table 1 Ideal parity and childbearing intention among married women at different parity levels

Actual parity

Ideal parity 0 1 2 3 4 5+

0 28.4% 0.8% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1 40.4% 47.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0% 0%

2 29.4% 49.9% 83.4% 50.7% 0% 25%

3 1.8% 1.3% 10.2% 44.9% 33.3% 0%

4 0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.9% 66.7% 75%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

N 218 391 344 69 3 4

Intend to have

children (%) 49.1% 19.2% 5.8% 1.5% / /

Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012

Parity-specific analysis of factors influencing childbearing intentions

To investigate the factors influencing married women’s fertility intentions at different

parity levels, we ran a multigroup regression analysis. Table 2 gives the general profile

of the married women and all of the variables included in our analysis except for two

continuous variables, namely wife’s age and division of housework. Overall, about 65%

of the women had no intention of having another child.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics of variables and social demographic profile of the women

in the analysis

Frequency Percent (%)

Intention to have a/another child

Have intention 204 19.8

Not sure 159 15.5

Do not have intention 666 64.7

Ideal number of children

0 65 6.3

1 295 28.7

2 582 56.6

3 76 7.5

4+ 11 1.1

Wife is a HK permanent resident

Yes 918 89.2

No 111 10.8

Wife’s education level

Lower secondary or below 258 25.1

Upper secondary 623 60.5

Postsecondary 148 14.4

Wife’s working status

Not working 350 34.0

Part-time job 103 10.0

Full-time job 576 56.0

Monthly household income

(HKD)

$14,999 or less 230 22.4

$15,000-$24,999 287 27.9

$25,000-39,999 301 29.3

$40,000 or above 211 20.5

Discussion with Husband on No.

of children

No 356 34.6

Yes, but did not agree 77 7.5

Yes and agreed 596 57.9

Marital life satisfaction

Average or below 223 21.7

Satisfied 639 62.1

Very Satisfied 167 16.2

Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012

Our multigroup regression analysis revealed that the factors of childbearing

intention vary considerably across women at different actual parity levels. In Table 3,

Model 1 shows the results for all married women regardless of their actual parity level.

The factors which are positively associated with childbearing intention include high

monthly household income, women whose ideal number of children is two, having

discussions with husband on the childbearing issue and reaching an agreement, and a

high level of marital life satisfaction. Factors which are negatively associated with

childbearing intention include wife’s age, the wife being a Hong Kong permanent

resident, and the ideal number of children being zero.

Models 2, 3, and 4 identified factors that are associated with the fertility intentions

of women at parity 0, parity 1, and parity 2. More importantly, they also unveiled (a)

some factors which seem to influence the general childbearing intention (shown in

Model 1) but are actually only associated with the intention of women at different parity

levels and (b) factors which seem to be unrelated with the general childbearing intention

but actually have significant associations with the intention of women at a certain parity

level. Compared with Model 1, all the other models had an improvement in R2,

especially Model 2 and Model 3, indicating that the parity-specific regressions

explained the variability of fertility intentions better.

Model 2 shows that for women at parity 0, factors which are negatively related to

childbearing intentions include wife’s age, the wife being a Hong Kong permanent

resident, and the ideal number of children being zero, whereas higher household income,

the ideal number of children being two, good communication with husband on the

number of children to have, and a high level of marital life satisfaction have significant

positive associations with the fertility intentions of women at parity 0.

Model 3 shows that only wife’s age and wife’s working status (having a part-time

job) are negatively related with intention to have a second child, whereas the ideal parity

being two or three is positively associated with the intention. What is more interesting

is that in this model, factors such as household income, communication with husband,

and marital life satisfaction now have no significant association with the intention to

have a second child, but wife’s working status, especially being a part-time employee,

now has a significant negative association with the intention of women at parity 1.

Model 4 shows another series of factors associated with the childbearing intentions

of women at parity 2. Wives having a full-time job and gender inequality in the division

of housework, both of which were insignificant in shaping the fertility intentions of

women at parity 0 and parity 1, in fact do play a significant role in the decision to have

a third child. Meanwhile, the ideal parity has now become insignificant.

As seen from the four models, women’s age is a crucial factor influencing fertility

intentions across all parity levels. Also, the factors identified in Model 1 which may

influence general fertility intentions, such as being a Hong Kong permanent resident,

household income, discussion with husband, and marital life satisfaction, are in fact

only significantly associated with the intention to have a first child.

Table 3 Coefficients of logistic regressions of childbearing intention of women at

different parity levels

Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4)

Childbearing

intention

Childbearing

intention

Childbearing

intention

Childbearing

intention

for all parities (parity 0→1) (parity 1→2) (parity 2→3)

Wife’s age -0.194*** -0.0865** -0.208*** -0.127***

Wife being HKPRa

No Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

Yes -0.733** -2.965*** -0.505 0.189

Wife’s education level

Low (Lower secondary or below) Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

Middle -0.0315 0.272 0.117 -0.939

High (postsecondary) 0.215 0.156 0.362 -1.841

Wife’s working status

Not working Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

Part-time job -0.437 -1.377 -1.233* -0.0914

Full-time job 0.203 0.268 -0.291 -1.248*

Monthly household income $14,999 or less Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

$15,000-$24,999 0.217 1.662* -0.476 0.0989

$25,000-39,999 0.499 2.296** -0.482 -0.0547

$40,000 or above 0.642* 2.039** -0.531 1.222

Ideal No. of children

1 child Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

No children -3.399*** -5.013***

2 children 0.682*** 1.279*** 3.158*** -0.170

3 or more children 0.608 -0.143 5.532*** 1.895

Communication with husband

No discussion with husband Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

Discussion but no agreement 0.321 0.570 0.497 -0.796

Discussion and agreement 0.352* 1.970*** 0.489 0.354

Gender inequality in housework -0.000395 0.00682 0.00775 -0.0222***

Marital life satisfaction

Average or below Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.

Satisfied 0.478* 1.301** 0.578 -0.973

Very satisfied 0.678** 1.598** -0.0978 0.386

Constant 4.723*** 1.252 3.807*** 3.341

Observations 1,029 218 391 344

Pseudo R2 0.27 0.48 0.39 0.28

Notes: a HKPR is the abbreviation for Hong Kong permanent resident

Level of significance: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Sources: Our calculation is based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012.

Motivations for childbearing and difficulties in childrearing

Among those who intended to have a/another child, we further investigated the

motivation behind their intention. Table 4 compares the reasons of the wives and the

husbands for having a/another child across the actual parity levels. For wives who were

at parity 0 and had the intention to have the first child, the top three reasons were (1) “I

like children” (36.5%), (2) “Children can bring joy to daily life” (16.8%), and (3)

“Children are the fruit of our love” (11.6%). The top three reasons among the husbands

were (1) “I like children” (30.8%), (2) “To carry on the family line” (16.5%), and (3)

“Children are the fruit of our love” (12.1%). For women who were at parity 1 or 2 and

had the intention to have another child, the most cited reasons by both the wives and

the husbands were “I like children,” “To let the children have a sibling,” “To carry on

the family line,” and “Like to have a big family.”

These results indicate that the reasons for childbearing can be differentiated

between wives and husbands and across actual parity levels. The reason “To carry on

the family line” was one of the top three reasons among husbands across all actual

parity levels; in contrast, only the wives who were at parity 2 and intended to have a

third child cited it as a main reason. “Children are the fruit of our love” was one of the

top reasons only among couples at parity 0 while not found among the top reasons given

by couples at other parity levels. This actually supports the finding in Model 2 that a

high level of marital life satisfaction is positively associated with the intention to have

the first child. Moreover, among couples at all parity levels, one common main reason

given for having children was “I like children.” If both the wife and the husband like

children, they seem to be more likely to have more children.

We also identified the potential major barriers and difficulties in childrearing

perceived by couples who intended to have a/another child. Removing these barriers

and difficulties could help these couples transfer their childbearing intention into actual

childbearing behaviour. Table 5 shows the major difficulties in raising children for the

wives and husbands across different parity levels. Across all parity levels, the wives

consistently cited three major concerns, namely increased economic burden, big

responsibility, and children are rebellious and difficult to teach nowadays; and the

husbands reported two common concerns, namely increased economic burden and big

responsibility. The economic concern among married couples can be understood, as in

Hong Kong the living costs and housing prices are extremely high, and the cost of

raising one child from birth to college graduation is estimated up to HK$ 5,500,000

(about US$ 700,000) (Chan, 2014). Due to the high pressure in Hong Kong’s education

system and the rising demand for “the quality of children”, the responsibility of raising

children has never been greater. Notably, there are some interesting differences between

wives and husbands. Difficulty in communicating with children, either “no time” or

“don’t know how,” was one of the top concerns among the husbands across different

parity levels. For couples at parity 1 or parity 2, husbands having no time to

communicate with their children indicates that the burden of childcare may fall on the

shoulders of wives. Thus, the unequal division of housework and childcare is likely to

depress wives’ intention to have another child.

Table 4 Wives’ and husbands’ reasons for having children by actual parity level

Actual

Parity Wives’ reasons Husbands’ reasons

0

I like children 36.5% I like children 30.8%

Children can bring joy to daily life 16.8% To carry on the family line 16.5%

Children are the fruit of our love 13.1% Children are the fruit of our love 12.1%

1

I like children 33.3% To let the children have a sibling 28.4%

To let the children have a sibling 32.0% I like children 25.4%

Like to have a big family 6.7% To carry on the family line 13.4%

2

I like children 75.0% I like children 40.0%

Like to have a big family 10.0% To carry on the family line 20.0%

To carry on the family line 5.0% To let the children have a sibling 13.3%

Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012

Table 5 Top three major difficulties in raising children perceived by couples at different parities

Actual

parity Wives’ difficulties Husbands’ difficulties

0

Increased economic burden 26.2% Big responsibility 25.2%

Big responsibility 24.8% Increased economic burden 25.2%

Children are rebellious and difficult

to teach nowadays 9.2%

Don’t know how to

communicate with children 10.1%

1

Big responsibility 28.4% Increased economic burden 29.7%

Increased economic burden 23.8% Big responsibility 23.8%

Children are rebellious and difficult

to teach nowadays 10.5%

No time to communicate with

children 10.0%

2

Increased economic burden 29.1% Increased economic burden 30.5%

Big responsibility 21.8% Big responsibility 19.5%

Children are rebellious and difficult

to teach nowadays 13.7%

No time to communicate with

children 11.3%

Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012

Discussion and conclusion

Our study has investigated childbearing intentions among Hong Kong married women

and their spouses, and identified the factors which may influence their intentions. We

further revealed the motivations behind their intention to have a/another child, and the

difficulties perceived by couples in raising children.

The average ideal parity has decreased from 2 children in 1992 to 1.7 children in

2012. Comparison of the profiles of ideal parity over the period 1992 to 2012 reveals a

decline in the desire for a two-child family and an increased preference for a one-child

family. Based on the sample of couple data for husbands and wives, we identified that

the unrealized gap between ideal and actual parity is largest in women at parity 0;

however, these women also have a greater intention to have a child in the future,

indicating that the gap may be narrowed, though may not be filled ultimately. For

women at parity 1, about 47.8% had realized their ideal number of children and 51.5%

had an actual parity smaller than their ideal parity, but only about 19.2% expressed their

intention to have a second child. For women at parity 2, about 83% had children up to

their ideal level and only about 6% intended to have a third child. The proportion of

women with the intention to have a second or third child is relatively small. This

indicates that some women who have not achieved their ideal parity tend to make a

compromise and forego further childbearing. Such phenomenon of ‘stopping at parity

1’ is prevailing not only in Hong Kong but also in other neighbouring countries (Basten

& Verropoulou, 2015).

Transition to parity 1 is believed to be very different from transition to parity 2 or

3, and the current actual parity has a significant effect on an individual’s fertility

intentions (Morgan, 1982; Stein, Willen, & Pavetic, 2014). Thus, a parity-specific

group comparison is very important to understand the factors influencing fertility

intentions at the individual level. The comparison results show that for women at parity

0, marital life satisfaction, monthly household income, the ideal parity, and good

communication with husband on childbearing decisions are significantly associated

with their intention to have a first child. Our study adds Hong Kong evidence to the

existing literature that economic and partnership instability is associated with delayed

parenthood. With globalization and education expansion, competition in the labour

market has become fiercer, thus increasing economic insecurity at the individual level;

as a result, in order to establish a career, individuals are delaying marriage and

parenthood (Bernardi, Klärner, & Von der Lippe, 2008; Caldwell & Schindlmayr, 2003;

D.-S. Kim, 2009). In Asia, where births outside marriage are still not socially acceptable,

couples in an unstable marriage may choose to delay the transition to parenthood.

Therefore, it seems that the rising divorce rate, increasing spinsterhood, and ultra-low

fertility in Hong Kong are all interrelated. Furthermore, communication and agreement

on a fertility plan between husbands and wives is an important predictor of the transition

to parenthood in both western and eastern countries (Kemkes-Grottenthaler, 2003;

Miller & Pasta, 1995; Thomson, 1997).

For women at parity 1, wife’s working status, especially having a part-time job,

and the ideal parity are associated with their intention to have a second child. Women

with one child who have a part-time job are less likely to have a second child. The

respondents in this case usually have relatively poor economic conditions. Due to the

heavy economic burden involved in raising children, women may have to take on some

part-time jobs to contribute to the family income, and thus they often struggle to find a

balance between family and work. For women at parity 2, wife’s working status,

especially having a full-time job, and gender inequality in the division of housework

are significantly associated with their intention to have a third child. This indicates that

the difficulty in balancing a full-time job and housework could be the barrier to

progression to parity 3 or higher. There is much room for improvement in creating a

family-friendly working environment for working women in Hong Kong. Long

working hours seem to be the norm rather than the exception and are a great

discouragement to family formation, childrearing, and family wellbeing.

Motivation to have children differs among parity-specific groups. For both

husbands and wives, a healthy and happy marriage may encourage them to have their

first child. The heavy economic burden involved in raising children is a big barrier,

especially to the transition from one child to two children. The experience in rearing

the first child has an important influence on the decision whether to have another one

or not. Husbands across all parity levels have some difficulty in communicating with

children, which to some extent may increase the childcare burden of wives, especially

for mothers with two children and a full-time job. Some parental education and training

in raising children might be helpful to improving communication within the family. The

factors, motivations, and barriers to childbearing and childrearing, which are relevant

to making pronatalist policies for Hong Kong married couples, vary across parity levels.

As far as fertility aspiration is concerned, having only one child seems to have

become the norm among married women, despite the traditional desire for a two-child

family. At present, the prevalence of one-child families is “actually even more

characteristic of East Asian countries than of China” (G. Jones, 2013). Delayed

marriage resulting in limited childbearing time, is indeed an important factor

contributing to the unfulfilled fertility gap. At the same time, expensive housing prices,

long working hours, and unstable working conditions have also been shown to be

related to delayed marriage in Hong Kong. It has been suggested that for countries in

the low fertility trap, “tempo policies” designed to slow down the trend toward delaying

marriage and lower-order births should be included in pronatalist policies (Lutz &

Skirbekk, 2005). Unless the Hong Kong Government is willing to provide support for

unmarried young people who aspire to get married, any effort to encourage Hong Kong

women to have three children seems to be a mission impossible; even if they like

children, it would be too late for them to realize their ideal parity. In order to reduce the

gap between actual and ideal parity, married couples need to plan ahead and plan well,

as the age of marriage is always a crucial factor in determining the parity level of

women.

To deal with such ultra-low fertility in Hong Kong and other high-income

economies, Gavin Jones has suggested that improving the gender inequality within

households and the family-unfriendly working environment, as well as less single-

minded attention to children’s education performance, would help to raise fertility

levels (G. W. Jones, 2012). In fact, our empirical study lends support to his suggestions.

For the decades to come, Hong Kong is very likely to become a low fertility society

with a rapidly ageing population and a shrinking workforce. Hence, it is important to

come up with innovative methods by which Hong Kong as a whole society can cope

with these demographic challenges. Under ultra-low fertility conditions, whether or not

to have children is not simply an individual decision anymore: rather, a societal

response is in order. To make Hong Kong a more children- or family- friendly society,

this response should include the Government and the business sector.

References

Atoh, M., Kandiah, V., & Ivanov, S. (2004). The second demographic transition in

Asia? Comparative analysis of the low fertility situation in East and South-

East Asian countries. The Japanese Journal of Population, 2(1), 42–75.

Basten, S. (2013). Re-Examining the fertility assumptions for Pacific Asia in the UN's

2010 World Population Prospects. University of Oxford Department of Social

Policy and Intervention, Barnett Papers in Social Research.

Basten, S., & Verropoulou, G. (2015). A Re-Interpretation of the ‘Two-child Norm’in

Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan. PloS

one, 10(8), e0135105.

Becker, G. S. (2009). A Treatise on the Family: Harvard university press.

Bernardi, L., Klärner, A., & Von der Lippe, H. (2008). Job insecurity and the timing of

parenthood: A comparison between Eastern and Western Germany. European

Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 24(3), 287-313.

Berninger, I., Weiß, B., & Wagner, M. (2011). on the links between employment,

partnership quality, and the intention to have a first child: the case of West

Germany. Demographic research, 24(24), 579-610.

Berrington, A. (2004). Perpetual postponers? Women's, men’s and couple’s fertility

intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour. Population trends, 117, 9-19.

Billari, F. C., Philipov, D., & Testa, M. R. (2009). Attitudes, norms and perceived

behavioural control: Explaining fertility intentions in Bulgaria. European

Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 25(4), 439-465.

Billingsley, S., & Ferrarini, T. (2014). Family policy and fertility intentions in 21

European countries. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76(2), 428-445.

Blossfeld, H.-P., Klijzing, E., Mills, M., & Kurz, K. (2006). Globalization,

uncertainty and youth in society: The losers in a globalizing world. New York:

Routledge.

Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population

and Development Review, 271-291.

Caldwell, J. C., & Schindlmayr, T. (2003). Explanations of the fertility crisis in

modern societies: A search for commonalities. Population studies, 57(3), 241-

263.

Chan, S. (2014). Planning to have a baby in Hong Kong? That'll cost you HK$5.5m.

Retrieved October 2015, from http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-

kong/article/1583164/planning-baby-thatll-be-hk55m

Cooke, L. P. (2003). The South revisited: The division of labor and family outcomes

in Italy and Spain: IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.

Fiori, F., Rinesi, F., Pinnelli, A., & Prati, S. (2013). Economic insecurity and the

fertility intentions of Italian women with one child. Population Research and

Policy Review, 32(3), 373-413.

Frejka, T., Jones, G. W., & Sardon, J. P. (2010). East Asian childbearing patterns and

policy developments. Population and Development Review, 36(3), 579-606.

doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00347.x

Friedman, D., Hechter, M., & Kanazawa, S. (1994). A theory of the value of children.

Demography, 31(3), 375-401.

HKCSD. (2012). Demographic trends in Hong Kong 1981-2011. Available from

HONG KONG CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Retrieved

October 2015

http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B1120017032012XXXXB0100.pdf

HKCSD. (2014). Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics (2014 Edition). Available

from Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department Retrieved October 2015

http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10100032014AN14B0100.pdf

HKCSD. (2015). Hong Kong Population Projections 2015-2064. Available from Hong

Kong Census and Statistics Department Retrieved September 2015

http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp190.jsp?productCode=B1120015

Jones, G. (2013). The Growth of the One-child Family and Other Changes in the Low

Fertility Countries of Asia. In A. Buchanan & A. Rotkirch (Eds.), Fertility

Rates and Population Decline: No Time for Children. UK: Palgrave Schol.

Jones, G. W. (2012). Late marriage and low fertility in Singapore: the limits of policy.

The Japanese Journal of Population, 10(1), 89-101.

Kemkes-Grottenthaler, A. (2003). Postponing or rejecting parenthood? Results of a

survey among female academic professionals. Journal of biosocial science,

35(02), 213-226.

Kim, D.-S. (2009). The 1997 Asian economic crisis and changes in the pattern of

socioeconomic differentials in Korean fertility. Ultra-low fertility in Pacific

Asia: Trends, causes and policy issues, 110-131.

Kim, E. H.-W. (2013). Fertility Intentions and Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility

Country.

Kreyenfeld, M., & Andersson, G. (2014). Socioeconomic differences in the

unemployment and fertility nexus: Evidence from Denmark and Germany.

Advances in Life Course Research, 21, 59-73.

Lutz, W., & Skirbekk, V. (2005). Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low‐

Fertility Countries. Population and Development Review, 31(4), 699-720. doi:

10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00094.x

Margolis, R., & Myrskylä, M. (2014). Parental well-being surrounding first birth as a

determinant of further parity progression. Demography.

McDonald, P. (2000). Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility.

Journal of population Research, 17(1), 1-16.

Mencarini, L., & Tanturri, M. L. (2004). Time use, family role-set and childbearing

among Italian working women. Genus, 60(1), 111-137.

Miller, W. B. (2011). Comparing the TPB and the TDIB framework. Vienna yearbook

of population research, 9, 19-29.

Miller, W. B., & Pasta, D. J. (1995). Behavioral Intentions: Which Ones Predict

Fertility Behavior in Married Couples? 1. Journal of Applied Social

Psychology, 25(6), 530-555.

Mills, M., Mencarini, L., Tanturri, M. L., & Begall, K. (2008). Gender equity and

fertility intentions in Italy and the Netherlands. Demographic research, 18, 1.

Morgan, S. P. (1982). Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: The United

States, 1970 to 1976. Demography, 19(3), 315-334.

Namboodiri, N. K. (1972). Some observations on the economic framework for

fertility analysis. Population studies, 26(2), 185-206.

Oláh, L. S. (2003). Gendering fertility: Second births in Sweden and Hungary.

Population Research and Policy Review, 22(2), 171-200.

Philipov, D. (2009). Fertility intentions and outcomes: the role of policies to close the

gap. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie,

25(4), 355-361.

Quah, S. R. (2015). Routledge Handbook of Families in Asia. New York: Routledge.

Rijken, A. J., & Thomson, E. (2011). Partners’ relationship quality and childbearing.

Social Science Research, 40(2), 485-497.

Stein, P., Willen, S., & Pavetic, M. (2014). Couples' fertility decision-making.

Demographic research, 30, 1697.

Straughan, P., Chan, A., & Jones, G. (2008). Ultra-low fertility in Pacific Asia: trends,

causes and policy issues. New York: Routledge.

Thomson, E. (1997). Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births. Demography,

34(3), 343-354.

Torr, B. M., & Short, S. E. (2004). Second births and the second shift: A research note

on gender equity and fertility. Population and Development Review, 30(1),

109-130.

Udry, J. R. (1983). Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time? Demography,

20(2), 117-128.

Yip, P., & Lee, J. (2002). The impact of the changing marital structure on fertility of

Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative Region). Social science & medicine,

55(12), 2159-2169.

Yip, P., Li, B. Y., Xie, K. S., & Lam, E. (2006). An analysis of the Lowest Total

Fertility Rate in Hong Kong SAR. Paper presented at the International

Conference on Declining Fertility in East and Southeast Asian Countries,

Tokyo.