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 A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SHARE KHAN PROJECT REPORT Submitted by JAYADEVAN.T Register No:712811 631012 in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION IN DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES RVS COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, COIMBATORE – 641 402 JULY 2013

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Page 1: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 181

A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF

INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET FOR

TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADEDIN MCX WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE

TO SHARE KHAN

PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by

JAYADEVANT

Register No712811631012

in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree

of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

IN

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

RVS COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

COIMBATORE ndash 641 402

JULY 2013

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 281

983122983126983123 983107983119983116983116983109983111983109 983119983110 983109983118983111983113983118983109983109983122983113983118983111 983105983118983108 983124983109983107983112983118983119983116983119983111983129

983107983119983113983117983106983105983124983119983122983109 991251 641 402

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983120983122983119983114983109983107983124 983127983119983122983115

983114983125983116983129 2013

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A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX

WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SHARE KHAN

983145983155 983156983144983141 983138983151983150983137983142983145983140983141 983154983141983139983151983154983140 983151983142 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983140983151983150983141 983138983161

983114983105983129983105983108983109983126983105983118983124

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I983150983156983141983154983150983137983148 E983160983137983149983145983150983141983154 E983160983156983141983154983150983137983148 E983160983137983149983145983150983141983154

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 381

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983114983105983129983105983108983109983126983105983118983124

(712811631012)

I 983139983141983154983156983145983142983161 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983140983141983139983148983137983154983137983156983145983151983150 983149983137983140983141 983137983138983151983158983141 983138983161 983156983144983141 983139983137983150983140983145983140983137983156983141 983145983155 983156983154983157983141

MrRejish David Jose P

Assistant Professor

Department of Management Studies RVS College of Engineering and Technology

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I extend my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to our principal

DrVGunaraj ME PhD who has given me a wonderful opportunity to

undertake the project work

I wish to express my sincere thanks to DrPVPrabha MBA PhD

Director RVS Institute of Management Studies for supporting my project work

I pay my respectful thanks to our Head of the Department ProfSPreetham

Sridar MBA MPhil (PhD) for encouraging me throughout the course of the

project

I express my sincere thanks to my project guide MrRejish David JoseP

Assistant Professor for the guidance and support in carrying out the project work

I would like to express my sincere thanks to organization guide

MrMohandasBranch Manager for his valuable support and guidance

throughout my project work

I also express my gratitude to all the Faculty members my Friends and my

Parents who have helped me to carry out this work Last but not least I thank theAlmighty for his blessing showed on me during this work

JAYADEVANT

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983106983113983106983116983113983119983111983122983105983120983112983129

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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1

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411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983141983160983145983155983156983145983150983143983155983144983137983154983141983144983151983148983140983141983154983155 983156983154983137983150983155983142983141983154983154983141983140 983156983144983141983145983154 983155983144983137983154983141983155 983156983151 983156983144983141 983152983154983151983149983151983156983141983154 F983124IL 983151983150 A983157983143983157983155983156 252003 I983156

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983138983145983148983148983145983151983150 639330 983138983145983148983148983145983151983150 983137983150983140 458810 983138983145983148983148983145983151983150983154983141983155983152983141983139983156983145983158983141983148983161 A983139983139983151983154983140983145983150983143 983156983151 983140983137983156983137 983149983137983145983150983156983137983145983150983141983140 983138983161 983156983144983141

F983117C 983156983144983141983155983141 983137983149983151983157983150983156983155983154983141983152983154983141983155983141983150983156983141983140 873 824 823 983137983150983140 874 983151983142 983156983144983141 I983150983140983145983137983150

983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983145983150983140983157983155983156983154983161 983154983141983155983152983141983139983156983145983158983141983148983161 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141 983158983137983148983157983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155

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983155983157983139983144 983137983155 FID F983157983150983140983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) L983145983149983145983156983141983140 (983137983150 983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142F983145983140983141983148983145983156983161 I983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148) E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156 983118983126 (983137983150

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983107983119983113983117983106983105983124983119983122983109 991251 641 402

983108983109983120983105983122983124983117983109983118983124 983119983110 983117983105983118983105983111983109983117983109983118983124 983123983124983125983108983113983109983123

983120983122983119983114983109983107983124 983127983119983122983115

983114983125983116983129 2013

983124983144983145983155 983145983155 983156983151 983139983141983154983156983145983142983161 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983141983150983156983145983156983148983141983140

A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX

WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SHARE KHAN

983145983155 983156983144983141 983138983151983150983137983142983145983140983141 983154983141983139983151983154983140 983151983142 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983140983151983150983141 983138983161

983114983105983129983105983108983109983126983105983118983124

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983151983142 983117BA 983140983157983154983145983150983143 983156983144983141 983161983141983137983154 20119830852013

983120983154983151983146983141983139983156 G983157983145983140983141 H983141983137983140 983151983142 983156983144983141 D983141983152983137983154983156983149983141983150983156

983123983157983138983149983145983156983156983141983140 983142983151983154 983156983144983141 983120983154983151983146983141983139983156 983126983145983158983137983085983126983151983139983141 983141983160983137983149983145983150983137983156983145983151983150 983144983141983148983140 983151983150 983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085983085

I983150983156983141983154983150983137983148 E983160983137983149983145983150983141983154 E983160983156983141983154983150983137983148 E983160983137983149983145983150983141983154

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983108983109983107983116983105983122983105983124983113983119983118

I 983137983142983142983145983154983149 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983156983145983156983148983141983140 991260A 983123983124983125D983129 983119983118 983120E983122F983119983122983117A983118CE 983119F

I983118DIA983118 C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129 983117A983122KE983124 F983119983122 983124983119983120 F983119983125983122 C983119983117983117983119DI983124IE983123 983124983122ADED I983118 983117C983128

983127I983124H 983123983120ECIAL 983122EFE983122E983118CE 983124983119 983123HA983122E KHA983118991261 983138983141983145983150983143 983155983157983138983149983145983156983156983141983140 983145983150 983152983137983154983156983145983137983148 983142983157983148983142983145983148983148983149983141983150983156

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983151983157983156 983138983161 983149983141 I983156 983144983137983155 983150983151983156 983142983151983154983149983141983140 983156983144983141 983152983137983154983156 983151983142 983137983150983161 983151983156983144983141983154 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983155983157983138983149983145983156983156983141983140 983142983151983154

983137983159983137983154983140 983151983142 983137983150983161 983140983141983143983154983141983141 983151983154 983140983145983152983148983151983149983137 983141983145983156983144983141983154 983145983150 983156983144983145983155 983151983154 983137983150983161 983151983156983144983141983154 983125983150983145983158983141983154983155983145983156983161

983114983105983129983105983108983109983126983105983118983124

(712811631012)

I 983139983141983154983156983145983142983161 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983140983141983139983148983137983154983137983156983145983151983150 983149983137983140983141 983137983138983151983158983141 983138983161 983156983144983141 983139983137983150983140983145983140983137983156983141 983145983155 983156983154983157983141

MrRejish David Jose P

Assistant Professor

Department of Management Studies RVS College of Engineering and Technology

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I extend my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to our principal

DrVGunaraj ME PhD who has given me a wonderful opportunity to

undertake the project work

I wish to express my sincere thanks to DrPVPrabha MBA PhD

Director RVS Institute of Management Studies for supporting my project work

I pay my respectful thanks to our Head of the Department ProfSPreetham

Sridar MBA MPhil (PhD) for encouraging me throughout the course of the

project

I express my sincere thanks to my project guide MrRejish David JoseP

Assistant Professor for the guidance and support in carrying out the project work

I would like to express my sincere thanks to organization guide

MrMohandasBranch Manager for his valuable support and guidance

throughout my project work

I also express my gratitude to all the Faculty members my Friends and my

Parents who have helped me to carry out this work Last but not least I thank theAlmighty for his blessing showed on me during this work

JAYADEVANT

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983124983105983106983116983109 983119983110 983107983119983118983124983109983118983124983123

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983105983106983123983124983122983105983107983124

983113 983113983118983124983122983119983108983125983107983124983113983119983118 1

11 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983113983118983108983125983123983124983122983129 1

12 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983107983119983117983120983105983118983129 13

13 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

131 983119983106983114983109983107983124983113983126983109983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

132 983120983109983122983113983119983108 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

133 983124983119983119983116983123 983105983118983108 983124983109983107983112983118983113983121983125983109983123 15

134 983123983119983122983107983109983123 983119983110 983108983105983124983105 15

135 983116983113983117983113983124983105983124983113983119983118983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 16

983113983113 983122983109983126983113983109983127 983119983110 983116983113983124983109983122983105983124983125983122983109 17

983113983113983113 983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129 22

983113983126 983105983118983105983116983129983123983113983123 amp 983113983118983124983109983122983120983122983109983124983105983124983113983119983118 25

983126 983110983113983118983108983113983118983111983123 65

983126983113 983123983125983111983111983109983123983124983113983119983118983123 71

983126983113983113 983107983119983118983107983116983125983123983113983119983118 72

983106983113983106983116983113983119983111983122983105983120983112983129

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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1

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421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

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9

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(983118983117CE)

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10

Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1981

13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 3: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

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983108983109983107983116983105983122983105983124983113983119983118

I 983137983142983142983145983154983149 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983156983145983156983148983141983140 991260A 983123983124983125D983129 983119983118 983120E983122F983119983122983117A983118CE 983119F

I983118DIA983118 C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129 983117A983122KE983124 F983119983122 983124983119983120 F983119983125983122 C983119983117983117983119DI983124IE983123 983124983122ADED I983118 983117C983128

983127I983124H 983123983120ECIAL 983122EFE983122E983118CE 983124983119 983123HA983122E KHA983118991261 983138983141983145983150983143 983155983157983138983149983145983156983156983141983140 983145983150 983152983137983154983156983145983137983148 983142983157983148983142983145983148983148983149983141983150983156

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983151983157983156 983138983161 983149983141 I983156 983144983137983155 983150983151983156 983142983151983154983149983141983140 983156983144983141 983152983137983154983156 983151983142 983137983150983161 983151983156983144983141983154 983152983154983151983146983141983139983156 983159983151983154983147 983155983157983138983149983145983156983156983141983140 983142983151983154

983137983159983137983154983140 983151983142 983137983150983161 983140983141983143983154983141983141 983151983154 983140983145983152983148983151983149983137 983141983145983156983144983141983154 983145983150 983156983144983145983155 983151983154 983137983150983161 983151983156983144983141983154 983125983150983145983158983141983154983155983145983156983161

983114983105983129983105983108983109983126983105983118983124

(712811631012)

I 983139983141983154983156983145983142983161 983156983144983137983156 983156983144983141 983140983141983139983148983137983154983137983156983145983151983150 983149983137983140983141 983137983138983151983158983141 983138983161 983156983144983141 983139983137983150983140983145983140983137983156983141 983145983155 983156983154983157983141

MrRejish David Jose P

Assistant Professor

Department of Management Studies RVS College of Engineering and Technology

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I extend my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to our principal

DrVGunaraj ME PhD who has given me a wonderful opportunity to

undertake the project work

I wish to express my sincere thanks to DrPVPrabha MBA PhD

Director RVS Institute of Management Studies for supporting my project work

I pay my respectful thanks to our Head of the Department ProfSPreetham

Sridar MBA MPhil (PhD) for encouraging me throughout the course of the

project

I express my sincere thanks to my project guide MrRejish David JoseP

Assistant Professor for the guidance and support in carrying out the project work

I would like to express my sincere thanks to organization guide

MrMohandasBranch Manager for his valuable support and guidance

throughout my project work

I also express my gratitude to all the Faculty members my Friends and my

Parents who have helped me to carry out this work Last but not least I thank theAlmighty for his blessing showed on me during this work

JAYADEVANT

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13 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

131 983119983106983114983109983107983124983113983126983109983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

132 983120983109983122983113983119983108 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

133 983124983119983119983116983123 983105983118983108 983124983109983107983112983118983113983121983125983109983123 15

134 983123983119983122983107983109983123 983119983110 983108983105983124983105 15

135 983116983113983117983113983124983105983124983113983119983118983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 16

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983113983113983113 983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129 22

983113983126 983105983118983105983116983129983123983113983123 amp 983113983118983124983109983122983120983122983109983124983105983124983113983119983118 25

983126 983110983113983118983108983113983118983111983123 65

983126983113 983123983125983111983111983109983123983124983113983119983118983123 71

983126983113983113 983107983119983118983107983116983125983123983113983119983118 72

983106983113983106983116983113983119983111983122983105983120983112983129

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983124983105983106983116983109 983118983119 983124983113983124983116983109 983120983105983111983109

983118983119

41 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F G983119LD 25

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49 983122983123I 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 53

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412 983122983123I 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 63

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1

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983110983113983111983125983122983109

983118983119983124983113983124983116983109

983120983105983111983109

983118983119

411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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8 983122983137983146983147983151983156 983155983141983141983140983155 983151983145983148 amp B983157983148983148983145983151983150 983117983141983154983139983144983137983150983156983155

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C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 G983154983151983157983150983140 983150983157983156 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

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983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

9 983124983144983141 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

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10 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 J983157983156983141 ampH983157983155983155983145983137983150 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

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11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

C983151983156983156983151983150

12 983124983144983141 983123983152983145983139983141983155 amp 983119983145983148983155983141983141983140983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 983123983137983150983143983148983145 983124983157983154983149983141983154983145983139

13 K983137983150983152983157983154 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 K983137983150983152983157983154 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142 983118983129983123E E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156) 983137983150983140983117983141983154983154983145983148983148 L983161983150983139983144 H983151983148983140983145983150983143983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) I983156 983144983137983155 983137983148983155983151 983149983137983140983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1881

12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I extend my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to our principal

DrVGunaraj ME PhD who has given me a wonderful opportunity to

undertake the project work

I wish to express my sincere thanks to DrPVPrabha MBA PhD

Director RVS Institute of Management Studies for supporting my project work

I pay my respectful thanks to our Head of the Department ProfSPreetham

Sridar MBA MPhil (PhD) for encouraging me throughout the course of the

project

I express my sincere thanks to my project guide MrRejish David JoseP

Assistant Professor for the guidance and support in carrying out the project work

I would like to express my sincere thanks to organization guide

MrMohandasBranch Manager for his valuable support and guidance

throughout my project work

I also express my gratitude to all the Faculty members my Friends and my

Parents who have helped me to carry out this work Last but not least I thank theAlmighty for his blessing showed on me during this work

JAYADEVANT

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

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983105983106983123983124983122983105983107983124

983113 983113983118983124983122983119983108983125983107983124983113983119983118 1

11 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983113983118983108983125983123983124983122983129 1

12 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983107983119983117983120983105983118983129 13

13 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

131 983119983106983114983109983107983124983113983126983109983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

132 983120983109983122983113983119983108 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

133 983124983119983119983116983123 983105983118983108 983124983109983107983112983118983113983121983125983109983123 15

134 983123983119983122983107983109983123 983119983110 983108983105983124983105 15

135 983116983113983117983113983124983105983124983113983119983118983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 16

983113983113 983122983109983126983113983109983127 983119983110 983116983113983124983109983122983105983124983125983122983109 17

983113983113983113 983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129 22

983113983126 983105983118983105983116983129983123983113983123 amp 983113983118983124983109983122983120983122983109983124983105983124983113983119983118 25

983126 983110983113983118983108983113983118983111983123 65

983126983113 983123983125983111983111983109983123983124983113983119983118983123 71

983126983113983113 983107983119983118983107983116983125983123983113983119983118 72

983106983113983106983116983113983119983111983122983105983120983112983129

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983124983105983106983116983109 983118983119 983124983113983124983116983109 983120983105983111983109

983118983119

41 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F G983119LD 25

42 983122983119C 983119F G983119LD 29

43 983122983123I 983119F G983119LD 33

44 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 35

45 983122983119C 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 39

46 983122983123I 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 43

47 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 45

48 983122983119C 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 49

49 983122983123I 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 53

410 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 55

411 983122983119C 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 59

412 983122983123I 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 63

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1

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983110983113983111983125983122983109

983118983119983124983113983124983116983109

983120983105983111983109

983118983119

411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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983124983144983141 983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983137983154983141 983156983144983141 983148983145983155983156 983151983142 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141983155 983137983150983140 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150 983159983144983145983139983144 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155 983137983154983141 983156983154983137983140983141983140

983145983150 I983150983140983145983137

983123983118983119 E983128CHA983118GE C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129

1 I983150983140983145983137 983152983141983152983152983141983154 amp 983123983152983145983139983141 983124983154983137983140983141 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150

K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

983120983141983152983152983141983154 (983138983151983156983144 983140983151983149983141983155983156983145983139 983137983150983140

983145983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155)

2 983126983145983146983137983161 B983141983151983152983137983154 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 L983156983140 983117983157983162983137983142983142983137983154983150983137983143983137983154 G983157983154

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983141983160983145983155983156983145983150983143983155983144983137983154983141983144983151983148983140983141983154983155 983156983154983137983150983155983142983141983154983154983141983140 983156983144983141983145983154 983155983144983137983154983141983155 983156983151 983156983144983141 983152983154983151983149983151983156983141983154 F983124IL 983151983150 A983157983143983157983155983156 252003 I983156

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983138983145983148983148983145983151983150 639330 983138983145983148983148983145983151983150 983137983150983140 458810 983138983145983148983148983145983151983150983154983141983155983152983141983139983156983145983158983141983148983161 A983139983139983151983154983140983145983150983143 983156983151 983140983137983156983137 983149983137983145983150983156983137983145983150983141983140 983138983161 983156983144983141

F983117C 983156983144983141983155983141 983137983149983151983157983150983156983155983154983141983152983154983141983155983141983150983156983141983140 873 824 823 983137983150983140 874 983151983142 983156983144983141 I983150983140983145983137983150

983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983145983150983140983157983155983156983154983161 983154983141983155983152983141983139983156983145983158983141983148983161 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141 983158983137983148983157983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155

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983155983157983139983144 983137983155 FID F983157983150983140983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) L983145983149983145983156983141983140 (983137983150 983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142F983145983140983141983148983145983156983161 I983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148) E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156 983118983126 (983137983150

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983124983105983106983116983109 983119983110 983107983119983118983124983109983118983124983123

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122 983118983119 983108983109983123983107983122983113983120983124983113983119983118 983120983105983111983109 983118983119

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983105983106983123983124983122983105983107983124

983113 983113983118983124983122983119983108983125983107983124983113983119983118 1

11 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983113983118983108983125983123983124983122983129 1

12 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983107983119983117983120983105983118983129 13

13 983105983106983119983125983124 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

131 983119983106983114983109983107983124983113983126983109983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

132 983120983109983122983113983119983108 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 15

133 983124983119983119983116983123 983105983118983108 983124983109983107983112983118983113983121983125983109983123 15

134 983123983119983122983107983109983123 983119983110 983108983105983124983105 15

135 983116983113983117983113983124983105983124983113983119983118983123 983119983110 983124983112983109 983123983124983125983108983129 16

983113983113 983122983109983126983113983109983127 983119983110 983116983113983124983109983122983105983124983125983122983109 17

983113983113983113 983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129 22

983113983126 983105983118983105983116983129983123983113983123 amp 983113983118983124983109983122983120983122983109983124983105983124983113983119983118 25

983126 983110983113983118983108983113983118983111983123 65

983126983113 983123983125983111983111983109983123983124983113983119983118983123 71

983126983113983113 983107983119983118983107983116983125983123983113983119983118 72

983106983113983106983116983113983119983111983122983105983120983112983129

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983124983105983106983116983109 983118983119 983124983113983124983116983109 983120983105983111983109

983118983119

41 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F G983119LD 25

42 983122983119C 983119F G983119LD 29

43 983122983123I 983119F G983119LD 33

44 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 35

45 983122983119C 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 39

46 983122983123I 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 43

47 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 45

48 983122983119C 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 49

49 983122983123I 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 53

410 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 55

411 983122983119C 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 59

412 983122983123I 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 63

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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1

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983110983113983111983125983122983109

983118983119983124983113983124983116983109

983120983105983111983109

983118983119

411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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12

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983124983105983106983116983109983123

983124983105983106983116983109 983118983119 983124983113983124983116983109 983120983105983111983109

983118983119

41 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F G983119LD 25

42 983122983119C 983119F G983119LD 29

43 983122983123I 983119F G983119LD 33

44 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 35

45 983122983119C 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 39

46 983122983123I 983119F C983122983125DE 983119IL 43

47 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 45

48 983122983119C 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 49

49 983122983123I 983119F 983123IL983126E983122 53

410 983117983119983126I983118G A983126E983122AGE 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 55

411 983122983119C 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 59

412 983122983123I 983119F C983119983120983120E983122 63

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1

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983110983113983111983125983122983109

983118983119983124983113983124983116983109

983120983105983111983109

983118983119

411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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12

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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1

983116983113983123983124 983119983110 983110983113983111983125983122983109983123

983110983113983111983125983122983109

983118983119983124983113983124983116983109

983120983105983111983109

983118983119

411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold 28

421 ROC Chart Of Gold 32

431 RSI Chart Of Gold 34

441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil 38

451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil 42

461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil 44

471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver 48

481 ROC Chart Of Silver 52

491 RSI Chart Of Silver 54

4101 Moving Average Chart Of Copper 58

4111 ROC Chart Of Copper 62

4121 RSI Chart Of Copper 64

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

983113983118983108983113983105983118 983109983128983107983112983105983118983111983109983123

983124983144983141 983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983137983154983141 983156983144983141 983148983145983155983156 983151983142 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141983155 983137983150983140 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150 983159983144983145983139983144 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155 983137983154983141 983156983154983137983140983141983140

983145983150 I983150983140983145983137

983123983118983119 E983128CHA983118GE C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129

1 I983150983140983145983137 983152983141983152983152983141983154 amp 983123983152983145983139983141 983124983154983137983140983141 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150

K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

983120983141983152983152983141983154 (983138983151983156983144 983140983151983149983141983155983156983145983139 983137983150983140

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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12

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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2

ABSTRACT

The project titled ldquoA STUDY ON PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN COMMODITY

MARKET FOR TOP FOUR COMMODITIES TRADED IN MCX WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SHARE KHANrdquo is carried out by using some of the tools under which the

ideal commodities for investment could be choosen to make profit The First chapter includes

three main categories The first one is introduction about the industry second one is introduction

about the company and third one the introduction about the study which consisting the

objective of the study scope of the study and limitation of the study Second chapter is the

review of literature which includes the articles and study of the various authors The Third

chapter is research methodology which tells about research design sampling design and toolsused for the study Fourth chapter is analysis amp interpretation and Fifth chapter is finding and

suggestions of study The Sixth chapter consisting of conclusion for the project and followed by

references which were used for the study

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

983113983118983108983113983105983118 983109983128983107983112983105983118983111983109983123

983124983144983141 983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983137983154983141 983156983144983141 983148983145983155983156 983151983142 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141983155 983137983150983140 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150 983159983144983145983139983144 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155 983137983154983141 983156983154983137983140983141983140

983145983150 I983150983140983145983137

983123983118983119 E983128CHA983118GE C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129

1 I983150983140983145983137 983152983141983152983152983141983154 amp 983123983152983145983139983141 983124983154983137983140983141 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150

K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

983120983141983152983152983141983154 (983138983151983156983144 983140983151983149983141983155983156983145983139 983137983150983140

983145983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155)

2 983126983145983146983137983161 B983141983151983152983137983154 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 L983156983140 983117983157983162983137983142983142983137983154983150983137983143983137983154 G983157983154

3 983122983137983146983140983144983137983150983145 983151983145983148 amp 983151983145983148983155983141983141983140 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 D983141983148983144983145 G983157983154 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp

983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

4 B983144983137983156983145983150983140983137 983119983149 amp 983151983145983148 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 B983144983137983150983156983137983140983137 G9831579831545 983124983144983141 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 H983137983152983157983154 G983157983154 983152983151983156983137983156983151983141983155 983137983150983140 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

6 983124983144983141 983117983141983141983154983157983156 A983143983154983151 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

983148983156983140 983117983141983141983154983157983156

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983155983157983139983144 983137983155 FID F983157983150983140983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) L983145983149983145983156983141983140 (983137983150 983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142F983145983140983141983148983145983156983161 I983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148) E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156 983118983126 (983137983150

983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142 983118983129983123E E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156) 983137983150983140983117983141983154983154983145983148983148 L983161983150983139983144 H983151983148983140983145983150983143983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) I983156 983144983137983155 983137983148983155983151 983149983137983140983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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3

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

11 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

HISTORY

Commodity futures markets largely remain underdeveloped in India This is in spite of the

countrylsquos long history of commodity derivatives trade as compared to the US and UK A major

contributor to this fact is the extensive government intervention in the agricultural sector in the

post-independence era In reality the production and distribution of several agricultural

commodities is still governed by the state and forwards as well as futures trading have only beenselectively introduced with stringent regulatory controls Free trade in many commodity items

remains restricted under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955 and forwards as well as

future contracts are limited to specific commodity items listed under the Forward Contracts

(Regulation) Act (FCRA) 1952

The evolution of the organized futures market in India commenced in 1875 with the setting up of

the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd Following widespread discontent among leading

cotton mill owners and merchants over the functioning of the Bombay Cotton Trade Association

a separate association Bombay Cotton Exchange Ltd was constituted in 1983 Futures trading

in oilseeds originated with the setting up of the Gujarati VyapariMandali in 1900 which carried

out futures trading in ground nuts castor seeds and cotton The Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd

and the East India Jute Association Ltd were set up in 1919 and 1927 respectively for futures

trade in raw jute In 1921 futures in cotton were organized in Mumbai under the auspices of East

India Cotton Association (EICA) Before the Second World War broke out in 1939 several

futures markets in oilseeds were functioning in the states of Gujarat and Punjab Futures markets

in Bullion began in Mumbai in 1920 and later similar markets were established in Rajkot

Jaipur Jamnagar Kanpur Delhi and Calcutta In due course several other exchanges were

established in the country facilitating trade in diverse commodities such as pepper turmeric

potato sugar and jaggery

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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983145983150 I983150983140983145983137

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K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

983120983141983152983152983141983154 (983138983151983156983144 983140983151983149983141983155983156983145983139 983137983150983140

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2 983126983145983146983137983161 B983141983151983152983137983154 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 L983156983140 983117983157983162983137983142983142983137983154983150983137983143983137983154 G983157983154

3 983122983137983146983140983144983137983150983145 983151983145983148 amp 983151983145983148983155983141983141983140 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 D983141983148983144983145 G983157983154 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp

983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

4 B983144983137983156983145983150983140983137 983119983149 amp 983151983145983148 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 B983144983137983150983156983137983140983137 G9831579831545 983124983144983141 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 H983137983152983157983154 G983157983154 983152983151983156983137983156983151983141983155 983137983150983140 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

6 983124983144983141 983117983141983141983154983157983156 A983143983154983151 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

983148983156983140 983117983141983141983154983157983156

G983157983154

7 983124983144983141 B983151983149983138983137983161 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

B983151983149983138983137983161

983119983145983148983155983141983141983140 983139983151983149983152983148983141983160

8 983122983137983146983147983151983156 983155983141983141983140983155 983151983145983148 amp B983157983148983148983145983151983150 983117983141983154983139983144983137983150983156983155

A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 983122983137983146983147983151983156

C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 G983154983151983157983150983140 983150983157983156 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

amp 983139983137983147983141 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp983139983137983147983141

983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

9 983124983144983141 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140

C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

983137983150983140 983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

10 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 J983157983156983141 ampH983157983155983155983145983137983150 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

H983141983155983155983145983137983150 amp 983155983137983139983147983145983150983143

11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1881

12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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983122983123I

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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4

STRUCTURE CONDUCT amp CURRENT STATUS

Broadly the commodities market exists in two distinct formsmdashthe over-the-counter

(OTC) market and the exchange based market Further as in equities there exists the spot and

the derivatives segments Spot markets are essentially OTC markets and participation isrestricted to people who are involved with that commodity such as the farmer processor

wholesaler etc A majority of the derivatives trading takes place through the exchange-based

markets with standardized contracts settlements etc The exchange-based markets are

essentially derivative markets and are similar to equity derivatives in their working that is

everything is standardized and a person can purchase a contract by paying only a percentage of

the contract value A person can also go short on these exchanges Moreover even though there

is a provision for delivery most contracts are squared-off before expiry and are settled in cash

As a result one can see an active participation by people who are not associated with the

commodity

At present there are 26 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in

as many as 146 commodity items As per the recommendation of the FMC the Government of

India recognized the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) Ahmadabad Multi

Commodity Exchange (MCX) National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

Mumbai and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges

As compared to 59 commodities in January 2005 94 commodities were traded in December

2006 in the commodity futures market These commodities included major agricultural

commodities such as rice wheat jute cotton coffee major pulses (such as urad arahar and

chana) edible oilseeds (such as mustard seed coconut oil groundnut oil and sunflower) spices

(pepper chillies cumin seed and turmeric) metals (aluminium tin nickel and copper) bullion

(gold and silver) crude oil natural gas and polymers among others Gold accounted for the

largest share of trade in terms of value A temporary ban was imposed on futures trading in uradand tur dal in January 2007 to ensure orderly market conditions An efficient and well-organised

commodities futures market is generally acknowledged to be helpful in price discovery for

traded commodities

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REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

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commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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4 B983144983137983156983145983150983140983137 983119983149 amp 983151983145983148 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 B983144983137983150983156983137983140983137 G9831579831545 983124983144983141 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 H983137983152983157983154 G983157983154 983152983151983156983137983156983151983141983155 983137983150983140 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

6 983124983144983141 983117983141983141983154983157983156 A983143983154983151 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

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amp 983139983137983147983141 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp983139983137983147983141

983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

9 983124983144983141 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140

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983137983150983140 983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

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C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

H983141983155983155983145983137983150 amp 983155983137983139983147983145983150983143

11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

C983151983156983156983151983150

12 983124983144983141 983123983152983145983139983141983155 amp 983119983145983148983155983141983141983140983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 983123983137983150983143983148983145 983124983157983154983149983141983154983145983139

13 K983137983150983152983157983154 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 K983137983150983152983157983154 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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9

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983149983141983137983148983155 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

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983120983137983148983149983151983148983145983141983150

15 983124983144983141 F983145983154983155983156 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983151983142 I983150983140983145983137

L983156983140 K983151983139983144983145

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16 C983141983150983156983154983137983148 I983150983140983145983137 C983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

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18 983118983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983117983157983148983156983145 991251C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983151983142

I983150983140983145983137 L983156983140 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140

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19 C983151983142983142983141983141 F983157983156983157983154983141983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 I983150983140983145983137

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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983123983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155

REGULATING BODY

The commodity futures traded i

the Forward Contracts Regulati

for the commodities trading is

comes under the Ministry of Co

983149983137983154983147983141983156983155 983145983150 983113983150983140983145983137

commodity exchanges are regulated by the G

ns Act 1952 and the Rules framed there und

the Forward Markets Commission situated at

sumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

5

overnment under

er The regulator

Mumbai which

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

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3 983122983137983146983140983144983137983150983145 983151983145983148 amp 983151983145983148983155983141983141983140 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 D983141983148983144983145 G983157983154 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp

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4 B983144983137983156983145983150983140983137 983119983149 amp 983151983145983148 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 B983144983137983150983156983137983140983137 G9831579831545 983124983144983141 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 H983137983152983157983154 G983157983154 983152983151983156983137983156983151983141983155 983137983150983140 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

6 983124983144983141 983117983141983141983154983157983156 A983143983154983151 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

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G983157983154

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B983151983149983138983137983161

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A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 983122983137983146983147983151983156

C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 G983154983151983157983150983140 983150983157983156 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

amp 983139983137983147983141 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp983139983137983147983141

983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

9 983124983144983141 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

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10 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 J983157983156983141 ampH983157983155983155983145983137983150 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

H983141983155983155983145983137983150 amp 983155983137983139983147983145983150983143

11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

C983151983156983156983151983150

12 983124983144983141 983123983152983145983139983141983155 amp 983119983145983148983155983141983141983140983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 983123983137983150983143983148983145 983124983157983154983149983141983154983145983139

13 K983137983150983152983157983154 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 K983137983150983152983157983154 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

983137983150983140 983139983137983147983141

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9

14 983118983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 B983151983137983154983140 983151983142 983156983154983137983140983141 I983150983140983151983154983141 983123983151983161983137 983155983141983141983140 983123983151983161983137 983151983145983148 983137983150983140 983123983151983161983137

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(983118983117CE)

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10

Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1981

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such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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6

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952

Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt

Out of these members there is one nominated chairman All the exchanges have been set upunder overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India

COMMODITIES TRADED

bull World-over one will find that a market exits for almost all the commodities known to us

These commodities can be broadly classified into the following

METAL Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Sponge Iron Steel Long

(Bhavnagar) Steel Long (Govindgarh) Steel Flat Tin Zinc

BULLION Gold Gold HNI Gold M i-gold Silver Silver HNI Silver M

FIBER Cotton L Staple Cotton M Staple Cotton S Staple Cotton

Yarn Kapas

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas M E

Sour Crude Oil

SPICES Cardamom Jeera Pepper Red Chilli Turmeric

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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12

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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7

PLANTATIONS Arecanut Cashew Kernel Coffee (Robusta) Rubber

PULSES Chana Masur Yellow Peas

PETROCHEMICALS HDPE Polypropylene(PP) PVC

OIL amp OIL SEEDS Castor Oil Castor Seeds Coconut Cake Coconut Oil Cotton

Seed Crude Palm Oil Groundnut Oil KapasiaKhalli Mustard

Oil Mustard Seed (Jaipur) Mustard Seed (Sirsa) RBD

Palmolein Refined Soy Oil Refined Sunflower Oil Rice Bran

DOC Rice Bran Refined Oil Sesame Seed Soymeal Soy

Bean Soy Seeds

CEREALS Maize

OTHERS Guargum Guar Seed Gurchaku Mentha Oil Potato

(Agra) Potato (Tarkeshwar) Sugar M-30 Sugar S-30

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8

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983124983144983141 983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983137983154983141 983156983144983141 983148983145983155983156 983151983142 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141983155 983137983150983140 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150 983159983144983145983139983144 983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155 983137983154983141 983156983154983137983140983141983140

983145983150 I983150983140983145983137

983123983118983119 E983128CHA983118GE C983119983117983117983119DI983124983129

1 I983150983140983145983137 983152983141983152983152983141983154 amp 983123983152983145983139983141 983124983154983137983140983141 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150

K983151983139983144983145(I983120983123983124A)

983120983141983152983152983141983154 (983138983151983156983144 983140983151983149983141983155983156983145983139 983137983150983140

983145983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983139983151983150983156983154983137983139983156983155)

2 983126983145983146983137983161 B983141983151983152983137983154 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 L983156983140 983117983157983162983137983142983142983137983154983150983137983143983137983154 G983157983154

3 983122983137983146983140983144983137983150983145 983151983145983148 amp 983151983145983148983155983141983141983140 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 D983141983148983144983145 G983157983154 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp

983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

4 B983144983137983156983145983150983140983137 983119983149 amp 983151983145983148 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 B983144983137983150983156983137983140983137 G9831579831545 983124983144983141 983139983144983137983149983138983141983154 983151983142 983139983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 H983137983152983157983154 G983157983154 983152983151983156983137983156983151983141983155 983137983150983140 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

6 983124983144983141 983117983141983141983154983157983156 A983143983154983151 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

983148983156983140 983117983141983141983154983157983156

G983157983154

7 983124983144983141 B983151983149983138983137983161 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

B983151983149983138983137983161

983119983145983148983155983141983141983140 983139983151983149983152983148983141983160

8 983122983137983146983147983151983156 983155983141983141983140983155 983151983145983148 amp B983157983148983148983145983151983150 983117983141983154983139983144983137983150983156983155

A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 983122983137983146983147983151983156

C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 G983154983151983157983150983140 983150983157983156 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

amp 983139983137983147983141 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp983139983137983147983141

983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

9 983124983144983141 A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141

A983144983149983141983140983137983138983137983140

C983137983155983156983154983151983148 983155983141983141983140 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

983137983150983140 983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

10 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 J983157983156983141 ampH983157983155983155983145983137983150 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

H983141983155983155983145983137983150 amp 983155983137983139983147983145983150983143

11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

C983151983156983156983151983150

12 983124983144983141 983123983152983145983139983141983155 amp 983119983145983148983155983141983141983140983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 983123983137983150983143983148983145 983124983157983154983149983141983154983145983139

13 K983137983150983152983157983154 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140 K983137983150983152983157983154 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148

983137983150983140 983139983137983147983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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9

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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983155983157983139983144 983137983155 FID F983157983150983140983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) L983145983149983145983156983141983140 (983137983150 983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142F983145983140983141983148983145983156983161 I983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148) E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156 983118983126 (983137983150

983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142 983118983129983123E E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156) 983137983150983140983117983141983154983154983145983148983148 L983161983150983139983144 H983151983148983140983145983150983143983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) I983156 983144983137983155 983137983148983155983151 983149983137983140983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1881

12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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8

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3 983122983137983146983140983144983137983150983145 983151983145983148 amp 983151983145983148983155983141983141983140 983141983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983148983156983140 D983141983148983144983145 G983157983154 983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp

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amp 983139983137983147983141 983139983151983156983156983151983150983155983141983141983140 983145983156983155 983151983145983148 amp983139983137983147983141

983139983151983156983156983151983150 amp 983122BD 983120983137983148983149983151983148983141983145983150

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10 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 J983157983156983141 ampH983157983155983155983145983137983150 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

C983137983148983139983157983156983156983137

H983141983155983155983145983137983150 amp 983155983137983139983147983145983150983143

11 983124983144983141 E983137983155983156 I983150983140983145983137 983139983151983156983156983151983150 A983155983155983151983139983145983137983156983145983151983150 L983156983140

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9

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24 983118983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161 983137983150983140 D983141983154983145983158983137983156983145983151983150

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(983118983117CE)

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10

Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1981

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such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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9

14 983118983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 B983151983137983154983140 983151983142 983156983154983137983140983141 I983150983140983151983154983141 983123983151983161983137 983155983141983141983140 983123983151983161983137 983151983145983148 983137983150983140 983123983151983161983137

983149983141983137983148983155 983122983137983152983141983155983141983141983140983117983157983155983156983137983154983140 983155983141983141983140

983145983156983155 983151983145983148 983137983150983140 983151983145983148983139983137983147983141 983137983150983140 983122BD

983120983137983148983149983151983148983145983141983150

15 983124983144983141 F983145983154983155983156 C983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 983151983142 I983150983140983145983137

L983156983140 K983151983139983144983145

C983151983152983154983137C983151983139983151983150983157983156 983145983156983155 983151983145983148amp 983151983145983148983139983137983147983141

16 C983141983150983156983154983137983148 I983150983140983145983137 C983151983149983149983141983154983139983141 E983160983139983144983137983150983143983141 L983156983140

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Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1881

12

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

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TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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10

Major national commodity exchange

1) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE) was promoted bycommodity

relevant public institutions viz Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC)National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) Gujarat Agro-Industries CorporationLimited (GAICL) Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB)National Institute of

Agricultural Marketing (NIAM) and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL)While various integral

aspects of commodity economy viz warehousing cooperativesprivate and public sector

marketing of agricultural commodities research and training wereadequately addressed in

structuring of the Exchange finance was a vital missing link Punjab National Bank (PNB) took

equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage

2) National Commodity amp Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is a professionallymanaged

on-line multi commodity exchange promoted by ICICI Bank Limited Life InsuranceCorporation

of India (LIC) National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD)and National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) Canara Bank Credit Rating InformationServices of

India Limited (CRISIL) Goldman Sachs Indian Farmers Fertilizer CooperativeLimited (IFFCO)

and Punjab National Bank (PNB) by subscribing to the equity shares havejoined the initial

promoters as shareholders of the Exchange NCDEX is the only commodityexchange in the

country promoted by national level institutions

3) MCX is an independent and de-mutualised multi commodity exchange promoted bymajor

financial institutions like Financial Technologies Ltd State Bank of India and itsassociates

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd (NSE) Fid Fund (Mauritius) Ltd Corporation Bank Union Bank ofIndia Canara

Bank Bank of India Bank of Baroda HDFC Bank and SBI Life Insurance CoLtd

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11

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983155983157983139983144 983137983155 FID F983157983150983140983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) L983145983149983145983156983141983140 (983137983150 983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142F983145983140983141983148983145983156983161 I983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148) E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156 983118983126 (983137983150

983137983142983142983145983148983145983137983156983141 983151983142 983118983129983123E E983157983154983151983150983141983160983156) 983137983150983140983117983141983154983154983145983148983148 L983161983150983139983144 H983151983148983140983145983150983143983155 (983117983137983157983154983145983156983145983157983155) I983156 983144983137983155 983137983148983155983151 983149983137983140983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 1881

12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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11

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12

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983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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12

983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155983145983150 983155983141983158983141983154983137983148 983154983141983148983137983156983141983140983138983157983155983145983150983141983155983155983141983155983159983144983145983139983144 983149983137983161 983138983141 983152983151983156983141983150983156983145983137983148 983154983141983158983141983150983157983141 983143983154983151983159983156983144 983140983154983145983158983141983154983155 983124983144983141

983142983151983148983148983151983159983145983150983143 983139983144983137983154983156 983155983144983151983159983155 983156983144983141 983155983156983154983137983156983141983143983145983139 983145983150983158983141983155983156983149983141983150983156983155

983119983150 J983157983150983141 7 2005 983117C983128 983148983137983157983150983139983144983141983140 983156983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983159983144983145983139983144 983145983155 I983150983140983145983137991256983155 983142983145983154983155983156 983139983151983149983152983151983155983145983156983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983161

983142983157983156983157983154983141983155 983152983154983145983139983141 983145983150983140983141983160 983137983148983151983150983143 983159983145983156983144 983156983144983154983141983141 983143983154983151983157983152983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983124983144983141 983117C983128C983119983117DE983128 983139983151983149983152983154983145983155983141983155 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983156983144983141 983156983144983154983141983141983143983154983151983157983152 983145983150983140983145983139983141983155 983150983137983149983141983148983161 983117C983128A983143983154983145 983117C983128983117983141983156983137983148 983137983150983140 983117C983128E983150983141983154983143983161

983124983144983141983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155 983145983150983139983148983157983140983141983140 983145983150 983141983137983139983144 983145983150983140983141983160 983144983137983158983141 983138983141983141983150 983155983141983148983141983139983156983141983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 983138983137983155983145983155 983151983142983156983144983141983145983154 983141983139983151983150983151983149983145983139

983145983149983152983151983154983156983137983150983139983141 983145983150 983156983141983154983149983155 983151983142 983156983144983141983145983154 983152983144983161983155983145983139983137983148 983149983137983154983147983141983156 983155983145983162983141 983145983150 983156983144983141I983150983140983145983137983150 983141983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983156983144983141 983156983157983154983150983151983158983141983154 983142983151983154

983141983137983139983144 983151983142 983156983144983141983155983141 983139983151983149983149983151983140983145983156983145983141983155

Key commodities traded in MCX

1 Gold

As the oldest precious metal known to man gold has served as a global currency and commodity

for thousands of years Gold is unique as it is both a commodity as well as a financial asset It is

also widely considered as a hedge against inflation The total above ground stocks of gold is

estimated to be around 163000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of2008 Out of this total stock 51 is estimated to be present as jewellery 18 as official

reserves 17 held as investment 12 used for industrial purposes and 2 is unaccounted for

India is the worlds largest consumer of gold Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the

worlds gold purchasing around 700 - 750 tons of gold every year

Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices However the fluctuations in

the INR-US Dollar exchange rate impacts domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed

The global gold prices are driven by a host of factors such as macro-economic factors like

strength of the economy rising importance of emerging markets currency movements and

interest rates being the major influencing factors Supply-demand is also a major influencer

amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies Shifts in official gold reserves

reports of sales or purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors whenever

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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13

such reports appear The investment in gold is also influenced by comparative returns from other

markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil Domestically demand

and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages The

rural demand is influenced by monsoon agricultural output and health of the rural economy

2 Silver

Silvers unique properties make it a very useful Industrial Commodity despite it being classed

as a precious metal Demand for silver is built on three main pillars industrial uses photography

and Jewellery amp silverware accounting for 342 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in

2002 Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico Peru and United States respectively

the first second and fourth largest producing countries The third largest is Australia Primarymines produce about 27 percentage of world silver while around 73 percentage comes as a by-

product of gold copper lead and zinc mining

The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of

other metals also as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals The

tie between silver and economic activity is strong given that around two-thirds of total silver

fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors Often a faster growth in demand against

supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors Economically viable primary

silver mine is a function of the world silver price level

3 Copper

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum It is a product whose

fortunes directly reflect the state of the worlds economy Copper is the best non- precious metal

conductor of electricity The metals exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creepingand corrosion makes it the preferred and safest conductor for building wiring Copper is also

used in power cables either insulated or uninsulated for high medium and low voltage

applications Copper is an essential component of energy efficient motors and transformers and

automobiles

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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14

Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day The

world copper production through exploration of new mines and expansion of existing mines also

influence copper prices Price of copper is also heavily influenced by the economic growth and

demand in major consuming countries such as China Japan Germany etc

4Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total worlds primary energy

consumption Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or

other Oil amp lubricants transportation petrochemicals pesticides and insecticides paints

perfumes etc are largely and directly affected by the oil pricesThe prices of crude oil are highly volatile High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries

India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries Oil accounts for about 30 per cent

of Indias total energy consumption The countrys total oil consumption is about 22 million

barrels per day India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no

exports India faces a large supply deficit as domestic oil production is unlikely to keep pace

with demand Indias rough production was only 08 million barrels per day The oil reserves of

the country (about 54 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High Upper Assam

Cambay Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins Balance recoverable reserve was about 733

million tonnes (in 2003) of which offshore was 394 million tones and on shore was 339 million

tonnes India had a total of 21 million barrels per day in refining capacity Government has

permitted foreign participation in oil exploration an activity restricted earlier to state owned

entities Indian government in 2002 officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism

(APM) Now crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price As ondate even the prices of crude bi-products are allowed to vary 10 keeping in line with

international crude price subject to certain government laid down norms formulae

Disinvestmentrestructuring of public sector units and complete deregulation of Indian retail

petroleum products sector is under way

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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15

12 ABOUT THE COMPANY

Sharekhan Ltd

Sharekhan is a firm which is working under SSKI (S S Kantilal Ishwarlal) LtdSSKI was

founded in 1922 SSKI is One of Indiarsquos Oldest Brokerage Houses having eight decades of

experience into-

bull Institutional Broking

bull Investment Banking

bull Retail Broking

It is one of the Founding members of the Stock Exchange Mumbai and Pioneer Institutional

Broker

SSKI Retail Broking

SSKI entered into Retail Broking in 1985 Share khan is the Retail Broking Armof the BIG 80

Years old organization ie of SSKI and ldquoSharekhanrdquo is the Brand Name given to its Retail

Business SSKI carries out its Retail Broking Activities under Sharekhan Brand Name

Sharekhan is One of Indiarsquos Leading Broking Houses They Provides a Complete Life-Cycle of

Investment Solutions in Equities DerivativesCommodities amp Depository Services

Sharekhan is having its retail presence across India through ndash

Sharekhan Outlets act as Full Service Investment Solutions Provider providingyou wide range

of services like ndash

bull Equity amp Derivatives Trading on NSE and BSE

bull Online Trading

bull Commodities Trading on MCX amp NCDEX

bull Portfolio Management Services

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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16

bull Depository Services

bull IPO Services

bull Wide Range of Customized Research Products

As a sub member of NSE BSE MCX NCDEX NSDL and CDSL which are pioneers in the

respective operations sharekhan is having more than 500 branches in all over India

Share khan Indiarsquos leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI an organization

with over eighty years of experience in the stock market with more than 280 share shops in 120

cities and big towns a nd premi er onli ne tr ading destination

Vision

To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market

Mission

bull To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions

through quality advice and superior service

bull To Respond the progressive globalization and achieving international standards

bull To attain efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices

bull To become No 1 player in online trading business

bull To establish largest network of branded broking outlets in the country serving morethan

700000 clients

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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17

13 ABOUT THE STUDY

131 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

bull PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

bull To study the performance of Indian commodity market for top four commodities traded

in MCX with special reference to Share Khan

bull SECONDARY OBJECTIEVES

bull To study the trend of price movement of commodities

bull To analyse the volatility of selected commodities

bull To analyse the variation of the closing price for each month in the selected years

132 PERIOD OF THE STUDY

Time period of the study is 3 consequent financial years from 2010 to 2013

133 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

bull Moving average

bull Rate Of Change

bull Relative Strength Index

134 SOURCES OF DATA

Data are collected from secondary sources like journalswebsite etc

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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18

135 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

bull The study is confined only to selected commodities

bull Data were collected from secondary sources like journals and websites

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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19

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are few studies on the performance and efficiency of Indian commodity derivatives

market Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature there is no general consensus on

whether or not the markets are efficient

The study of Kaminsky (1989) in the context of US Commodity markets suggests that for certain

commodity expected to excess returns to future speculation are non-zero though other

researchers also argue that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient

Mishra (2008) observed that during the period 2003-08 the Indian stocks as well as commoditymarkets have grown considerably The studies have explored the advantages of adding

commodities to a portfolio of equities in Indian context Bose (2007) found that Indian stock

markets are more volatile as compared to developed markets and Indian commodity future

markets are going through many ups and downs and allegations of speculative activity have been

made

Slade and Thille (2004) assessed the levels and volatilities (means and standard deviations) of

the spot prices of the six commodities that were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the1990s The theories that they examined could be grouped into four classes The first considered

how productndashmarket structure and forwardndashmarket trading jointly affect the spotndashmarket game

the second explored the links between productndash market structure and spotndashprice stability the

third assessed whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices and the last related the arrival of

new information to price volatility and the volume of trade They found support for traditional

marketndashstructure models of the price level but not of price stability In addition increased

forward trading was associated with lower prices

The efficiency test of agricultural commodity future market was also done in China by

Wang (2005) and Bingfanke (2005) and the results suggested a long term relationship between

the future price and spot price for Soya beans and weak short term efficiency in Soya bean

future market The study also highlighted inefficient future market for wheat and suggested that

it may have been caused by over speculation and government intervention Sahi (2006) studied

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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20

the impact of introducing futures contracts on the volatility of the underlying commodities in

India He found that unexpected increase in futures activity in terms of rise in volumes and open

interest has caused increase in cash price volatilities suggesting that futures trading had a

destabilizing effect on spot prices of commodities

A study by Lokare (2007) found that although Indian commodity market is yet to achieve

minimum critical liquidity in some commodities almost all the commodities show an evidence

of association between spot and future prices revealing the right direction of achieving the

improved operational efficiency though at a slower rate However for a few commodities

the volatility in future price has been substantially lower than the spot price indicating an

inefficient utilization of information

Whether commodity futures prices lead spot prices began with Garbade and Silber (1983) who

tested whether a change in the basis of the previous time period was correlated with a change in

the spot or futures prices of the current time period If basis innovations forecast futures returns

then the spot market can be said to lead the futures market On the contrary if basis innovations

exactly forecast spot returns then this would imply that the spot market is a pure satellite of the

futures market If each set of prices is seen to predict the other it is taken as evidence of bi-

directional causality ie a clear case of information flowing from each market to the other and

prices being adjusted accordingly With improvements in econometric techniques these tests

have been extended in several directions These extensions include considering a longer lag

structure

However Nitesh (2005) studied the implications of soy oil futures in Indian markets using

simple volatility measures and concluded that the futures trading was effective in reducing

seasonal price volatilities but did not brought down daily price volatilities significantly

Some of the Indian researches have not only studied the efficiency of commodity future marketsof India but also analysed its effects on social welfare and inflation on Indian economy The

results showed that commodity future markets are not efficient in the short run Also the growth

in commodity futures markets leads to disadvantages to society in terms of significant increase in

inflation (Sahi Kaizada 2006) In addition Gary B Gorton (2005) and Rouwenhorst (2005)

stated that commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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21

The literature review reflects that there has been some work regarding fluctuation and volatility

in commodity market and also many researchers have discussed hedging as risk minimization

tool Review of literature on commodity futures markets indicate that while there has been

widespread research on technical questions the research has had inefficient economic content

There is a need to contribute to the academic literature by studying the relation between

commodity spot and future prices The paper attempts to draw lights on performance and ad

efficiency of commodity market with special reference to top six commodities traded in MCX

According to Sahadevan the Sagging Agricultural Commodity Exchanges - Growth Constraints

and Revival Policy Options ldquoCommodity derivatives have a crucial role to play in managing

price risk especially in agriculture dominated economies However they have been utilized in a

very limited scale in India As long as prices of many commodities are restrained to certain

extent by Government intervention in production supply and distribution forwards and futures

markets for hedging rice risk in those commodities have only limited practical relevance A

review of the nature of institutional and policy level constraints facing this segment calls for

more focused and pragmatic approach from government the regulator and the exchanges for

making the agricultural futures markets a vibrant segment for risk managementrdquo

According to Peter Gibbon Danish Institute for International Studies Copenhagen The

commodity question new thinking on old problems - ldquoThis paper reviews more and less

mainstream policy options in relation to the bdquocommodity question in the light both of its

classical definition and of the emerging concern about oligopoly It begins by updating the

evidence concerning commodity price decline and volatility and examining the implications of

these phenomena for macro-economic performance and livelihoods in producing countriesrdquo

According to Stephen CraigThe Self-Regulation of Commodity Exchanges The Case of

Market Manipulation-ldquoThe paper deals with Price dissemination that every Mandy becomes a

monopoly to the local producers especially once they come to the market Farmers typically face

a short period between the time that they harvest and the time that they can sell the croprdquo

According to Katherine Dusak Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigation of

Commodity Market Risk Premiums ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

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TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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22

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by harpe Lintner and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Susan Thomas Agricultural commodity markets in India-Policy issues for growth

ldquoStrengthening institutions in spot and derivative markets for commodities is a necessary

ingredient of the liberalization process in agriculture and can impact upon the lives of millions

This paper describes the existing market design prevalent on both the spot and the futures

markets This show some evidence on the role played by the nascent futures markets in price

discovery Document the problems of both the spot and the futures markets The paper offer

three policy proposals using reference rates for strengthening transparency exploring a greater

role for cash settlement and treating warehouse receipts as securitiesrdquo

According to Chua Jess H Gordon Sick and Richard S Woodward (1990) Diversifying with

Gold Stocks ldquoThe authors extend Jaffersquos (1989) study by examining the relative investment

benefits of investing in gold equities versus gold bullion during the period September 1971

through December 1988 By splitting their sample period into two sub periods the authors show

that the diversification benefits of gold bullion are much more consistent than the diversification

benefits of gold equities In particular they find that the beta of gold equities more than doubled

between the 1970s and 1980s whereas the beta of gold bullion remained largely unchanged at

approximately zero in both periods Thus the authors question the diversification benefits of

gold equities particularly over shortinvestment horizonsrdquo

According to Dusak Katherine (1973) Futures Trading and Investor Returns An Investigationof Commodity Market Risk Premiums Journal of Political Economy Vol 81 No 6

(NovemberDecember) 1387-1406 ldquoThe long-standing controversy over whether speculators in

a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing

model recently developed by Sharpe Linter and others Under that approach the risk premium

required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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23

which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth

The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat corn and soybean futures contracts

over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zeroin all three cases Average realized

holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zerordquo

According to Edwards Franklin R and Jimmy Liew (1999) Managed Commodity Futures

Journal of Futures Markets Vol19 No4 (June) 377-411 ldquoThe authors examine the

performance of managed commodity futures as represented by public commodity funds

commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisers The authors indicates that the costs

associated with investing in CPOs and CTAs may be quite large because the funds may incur

significant transaction costs which are added to a number of fees charged to investors including

management fees profit-based incentive fees and loads Despite these relatively high costs the

authors find that the net return to commodity fund investments is frequently relatively attractive

Each individual fund however has relatively volatile returns so the stand-alone performance of

managed commodity futures is poor relative to traditional investments The authors find that in

general adding a portfolio of CPOs or CTAs to a traditional investment portfolio enhances

portfolio performance In addition the authors compare the returns to CTAs and CPOs with the

returns to the passive ReutersJefferies CRB Index and the MLM The MLM is a dynamic index

based on momentum in commodity prices which is consistent with the strategy followed by

many managed futures funds The authors find a significant positive relationship between the

returns to managed futures and the MLM but no significant relationship between managed funds

and the CRB This finding is consistent with the contention that the MLM provides a general

indicator of the performance of managed futures The authors also find however that neither the

MLM nor the CRB supplants managed futures in their derived efficient portfoliosrdquo

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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24

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983113983113

983122983109983123983109983105983122983107983112 983117983109983124983112983119983108983119983116983119983111983129

The methodologies used for the study are the following

31 Research design

bull The research design used in the study is analytical In analytical research the researcher

has to use facts or information already available and analyse these to make a critical

evaluation of material So the research has to analyse the commodity future and spot

closing prices which is a historical data and derive conclusions from it

bull Universe

bull The segment identified for conducting the study is MCX Samples are selected on the

basis of top traded commodities in MCX Market capitalisation is the basis for

understanding the top traded commodities

bull Sampling design

bull MCX offers more than 40 commodities across various segments such as Bullion Ferrous

and Non-Ferrous metals Energy and a number of Agri-commodities on its platform

Among these commodities are selected on the basis of top traded in MCX

32 Samples

Four commodities are selected they are

bull Gold

bull Silver

bull Crude oil

bull Copper

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

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TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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25

33 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is used for this study

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a forecasting method of price movements using past prices volume and

open interest Technical analysis includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart

analysis pattern recognition analysis seasonality and cycle analysis and computerized technical

trading systems However academic research on technical analysis is generally limited to

techniques that can be expressed in mathematical forms namely technical trading systems

although some recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition

algorithms A technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from

parameterizations and each trading rule generates trading signals (long short or out of market)

according to their parameter values Several popular technical trading systems are moving

averages channels and momentum oscillators

Tools for Technical analysis

bull Rate of change indicator (ROC)

bull Relative strength index (RSI)

bull Moving average

331 Rate of change indicator (ROC)

The Rate of Change indicator (ROC) is a way of showing how rapidly the price of a particular

share (or other financial instrument) is moving Rate of Change or ROC is a technical indicator

that measures the changes between the percentage compared to the most recent price and the

price for n periods in the past It is also said that it monitors the momentum of the market It

estimates the marketrsquos rate of change comparative to the previous trading intervals In the highest

level the indicator might say a market is quite overbought Valleys or troughs also point out an

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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26

oversold market situation It has a horizontal median called equilibrium It is this median that

tells us everything we need to know about this type of rate

332 Relative strength index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the powerful Oscillators which indicate market

movement much before such movement takes place Under RSI gains and losses of the prices

over the immediate previous daysrsquo price for a certain period is calculated Market always moves

southward after an overbought situation and it moves northward after an oversold situation

Relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall

market

RSI=100-[100 (1+RS)]

RS = Average of n periods price gains Average of n periods price losses

RSI ranges from 0 to 100 An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70

level meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback

333 Moving average

In statistics a moving average also called rolling average rolling mean or running average is a

type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of

averages of different subsets of the full data set A moving average is not a single number but it

is a set of numbers each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of

data points it is used in technical analysis of financial data like stock prices returns or trading

volumes

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 33: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

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27

983107983112983105983120983124983109983122983085983113983126

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 41 MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD

Date Closing price (Rs) 5 Months Moving

Average

142010 16295

152010 17125

162010 18385

172010 18852

182010 17770

192010 19134 176854

1102010 19035 182532

1112010 19807 186352

1122010 20919 19333

112011 21127 200044

122011 20334 202444

132011 21348 20707

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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28

142011 20934 209324

252011 22626 212738

162011 22460 215404

172011 21628 217992

182011 23176 221648

192011 27215 23421

1102011 26031 24102

1112011 27575 25125

1122011 28888 26577

212012 27382 274182

122012 28083 275918

132012 27925 279706

242012 28932 28242

152012 29510 283664

162012 29994 288888

272012 29660 292042

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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29

182012 30014 29622

192012 31342 30104

1102012 31415 30485

1112012 30952 306766

1122012 31563 310572

112013 30888 31232

122013 30599 310834

132013 29740 307484

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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30

FIGURE 411 Moving Average Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

A short term moving average is used to predict near future movement and taking decision for

short time periodThe closing price is always above the moving average lineIt indicates the

buying signal for the commodity But in the starting of 2013 the price started to decline below

the moving average which indicates a selling signal for the commodity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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31

TABLE 42 ROC OF GOLD

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1168149739

1122010 1156613139

112011 1137829753

122011 1120676851

132011 1144288126

142011 1115710254

252011 1099763593

162011 1142323421

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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32

172011 1073665089

182011 1023713731

192011 1139765909

1102011 1274826682

1112011 1243479507

1122011 1218730664

212012 1286197685

122012 1266044017

132012 1211727649

242012 1026088554

152012 1111444047

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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34

FIGURE 421 ROC Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart of gold the ROC line is above the 120 line in the peroid between 192011

and 122012 and it represented a bullish marketThen it started to decline and reached near to a

point of 100 which represents the bearish market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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35

TABLE 43 RSI OF GOLD

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 78066

2011-2012 71776

2012-2013 62853

RSI=100-(1001+RS)

RS=AverageGainDay

Average lossDay

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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983122983123983113

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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36

FIGURE 431 RSI Chart Of Gold

INTERPRETATION

This RSI graph is showing that the RSI values are above 80 mark and keep going upward in

2010-2011 It indicates that market is likely to move upwardBut in the financial year 2012-2013

it started to decline and going below to 50 point line One should take precaution or a risk

adverse investor can sell at this movement

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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37

TABLE 44 MOVING AVERAGE OF CRUDE OIL

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 3751

152010 3814

162010 3464

172010 3523

182010 3654

192010 3449 36412

1102010 3591 35808

1112010 3630 35362

1122010 4098 35694

112011 4358 36844

122011 4500 38252

132011 4628 40354

142011 4845 42428

252011 5055 44858

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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38

162011 4512 46772

172011 4240 4708

182011 4207 4656

192011 4095 45718

1102011 3933 44218

1112011 4493 41974

1122011 5115 41936

212012 5325 43686

122012 4861 45922

132012 5334 47454

242012 5464 50256

152012 5684 52198

162012 4671 53336

272012 4636 52028

182012 5020 51578

192012 5379 5095

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 45: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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39

1102012 4890 5078

1112012 4697 49192

1122012 4905 49244

112013 5076 49782

122013 5182 49894

132013 5017 4950

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 46: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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40

FIGURE 441 Moving Average Chart Of crude oil

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price is above the moving average line and it

represents bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average

lineIn this case the investor may not be able to predict about the futureSo he can better sell thecommodity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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41

TABLE 45 ROC OF CRUDE OIL

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 9573447081

1122010 9517566859

112011 1183025404

122011 1237013909

132011 1231527094

142011 1341838214

252011 1349206349

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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42

162011 1392561983

172011 110102489

182011 9729233593

192011 9348888889

1102011 8848314607

1112011 8117647059

1122011 8888229476

212012 1133643617

122012 1255896226

132012 1155455194

242012 1302564103

152012 1389270277

162012 1265079012

272012 9131964809

182012 8706103286

192012 1032709319

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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43

1102012 1008436445

1112012 8949487555

1122012 8263546798

112013 1050096339

122013 1094909405

132013 1032270916

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

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44

FIGURE 451 ROC Chart of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In this ROC chart on 13201125201116 2011 amp 112012 the line touched 120 point and on

242012 the line touched 140 pointAnd after that the line started to decline and reached near to

80 point markSo the investor can better sell the commodity

020406080

100120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 51: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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45

TABLE 46 RSI Of Crude Oil

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 72068

2011-2012 5902

2012-2013 45415

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 52: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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46

FIGURE 461 RSI Chart Of Crude Oil

INTERPRETATION

In 2010-2011 the RSI has touched the 80 point line which represents an upward trend But after

that in 2011-2012 it has declined and reached 50 point line and in 2012-2013 it kept decreasing

and going down to 40 point line A downward trend can be estimated from this

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5381

47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5481

48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5581

49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5681

50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 53: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5381

47

TABLE 47 MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER

Date Closing price (Rs) Moving average

142010 26935

152010 28304

162010 29292

172010 29604

182010 28636

192010 30915 285542

1102010 32962 293502

1112010 37105 302818

1122010 43009 318444

112011 46311 345254

122011 44361 380604

132011 52631 407496

142011 57140 446834

252011 69135 486904

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5481

48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5581

49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5681

50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

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70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

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71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

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72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 54: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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48

162011 58515 539156

172011 52193 563564

182011 61082 579228

192011 65437 59613

1102011 54522 612724

1112011 57911 583498

1122011 58517 58229

212012 53325 594938

122012 59238 579424

132012 61667 567026

242012 60743 581316

152012 58552 58698

162012 55803

58705

272012 53513 592006

182012 54924 580556

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5581

49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 55: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5581

49

192012 60979 56707

1102012 62934 567542

1112012 59695 576306

1122012 63351 58409

112013 57918 603766

122013 59886 609754

132013 54937 607568

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5681

50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 56: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5681

50

FIGURE 471 Moving Average Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011the closing price was above the moving average line and it

represented the bullish market

And after 2010-2011 there was a frequent change in both the closing and moving average lineIn

this case the investor cannot able to predict about the futureSo investor can be advised to sell

the commodity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

C983148983151983155983145983150983143 983152983154983145983139983141

983117983151983158983145983150983143 983137983158983141983154983137983143983141

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 57: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5781

51

TABLE 48 ROC OF SILVER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 1223761

1122010 1310945

112011 1468285

122011 1564349

132011 1549134

142011 1702442

252011 1733511

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 58: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5881

52

162011 1863226

172011 1360529

182011 1127011

192011 137693

1102011 1243317

1112011 9541827

1122011 837651

212012 1000034

122012 1021689

132012 9698111

242012 9423873

152012 1114101

162012

1011069

272012 9536203

182012 1003526

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 5981

53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 59: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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53

192012 9271751

1102012 9888433

1112012 103607

1122012 1019521

112013 1135262

122013 1082316

132013 1090343

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

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69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 60: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6081

54

FIGURE 481 ROC Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows that ROC of Silver is going above 150 line on 252011 and in this period the

customer could hold the share After that it started going downward and it touched the 80 point

mark on 1122011So the investor can better sell the commodity

0

50

100

150

200

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 61: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6181

55

TABLE 49 RSI OF SILVER

YEAR RSI

2010-2011 90741

2011-2012 56014

2012-2013 4083

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 62: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6281

56

FIGURE 491 RSI Chart Of Silver

INTERPRETATION

In this chart the RSI of silver touched 90 point on 2010-2011 and in this period the customer

could sell the commodityBut in 2011-2012 the RSI line come down below 60 pointso the

investor could hold the commodityIn the year 2012-2013 the RSI come down below 50 pointSo

the investor can better buy the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 63: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6381

57

TABLE 410 MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER

Date Closing Price (Rs) Moving Average

142010 35135

152010 327

162010 31930

172010 30165

182010 33835

192010 34890 32753

1102010 36215 32704

1112010 36910 33407

1122010 38805 34403

112011 43950 36131

122011 45190 38154

132011 45425 40214

142011 42585 42056

252011 417 43191

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 64: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6481

58

162011 40860 4377

172011 425 43152

182011 43135 42614

192011 42255 42156

1102011 34680 4209

1112011 38495 40686

1122011 40990 40213

212012 40780 39911

122012 41870 3944

132012 43080 39363

242012 44745 41043

152012 4518 42293

162012 41285 43131

272012 4267 43232

182012 42265 43392

192012 4272 43229

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 65: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6581

59

1102012 44005 42824

1112012 4233 42589

1122012 44085 42798

112013 45015 43081

122013 4442 43631

132013 43110 43971

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 66: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6681

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 67: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6781

61

TABLE 411 ROC OF COPPER

Date ROC

142010

152010

162010

172010

182010

192010

1102010

1112010 103073858

1122010 1128746177

112011 1215314751

122011 1456986574

132011 1335599232

142011 1301948983

252011 1175893967

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 68: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6881

62

162011 1129775129

172011 1052957093

182011 9670079636

192011 9545253375

1102011 9302146395

1112011 8143712575

1122011 9231414868

212012 1003181596

122012 9595294118

132012 970673467

242012 1019524317

152012 1290224913

162012 1173658917

272012 1007196877

182012 1046346248

192012 1009433962

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 69: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 6981

63

1102012 991643454

1112012 9834618393

1122012 9369189907

112013 1067821243

122013 1054956644

132013 1050987815

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 70: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7081

64

FIGURE 4111 ROC Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

On 122011 the ROC line touched 140 mark which indicates that the investor can hold the

commodityAnd after that it started to decline On 1112011 the ROC line touched the 80 point

mark After that one time only it crossed the 120 mark So the investor can sell the commodity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

983122983119983107

983122983119C

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 71: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7181

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 72: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7281

66

FIGURE 4121 RSI Chart Of Copper

INTERPRETATION

In the financial year 2010-2011 the RSI line is above 70 point markSo the investor can sell the

commodity But in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 the RSI line goes below the 50 point Which

indicates that the investor could think of selling the commodity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20109830852011 20119830852012 20129830852013

983122983123983113

983122983123I

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 73: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7381

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 74: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7481

68

SEVERAL REASONS FOR VARIATION OF THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES

GOLD

MCX gold futures turned out to be a strong safe haven for investment under the conditions of

lingering global economic concerns that entailed the financial turmoil in the Euro-zone and the

relatively high oil prices This helped MCX gold futures reach 28518 per 10 grams up by more

than 37 per cent on a yearly basis at the close of FY 2011-12

Gold price rallied more than +28 in 2010 marking the strongest rise since 1979 when price

more than doubled There are two main reasons driving the metal higher Sovereign crisis in the

European periphery and Quantitavive Easing by the Fed These two factors will continue to

support gold next year In 2010 gold made a record high of $1266 as Greece was facing

insolvency and the euro was threatened to be disintegrated

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to stimulate

the national economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective Quantitative

Easing can be used to help ensure that inflation does not fall below target

During June 2010

bull India gold futures are likely to revisit the 19000-Rupee mark as the overseas trend is

seen as bullish with global investors seeking the safe haven metal due to uncertainty in

the global economy

bull India the worlds top gold buyer saw a sharp drop in June imports signalling recent

record high prices which indicates dissuading fundamental demand even as the worlds

largest exchange-traded fund reports record holdings

During February 2011

bull While presenting the annual budget in the Parliament Indias Finance Minister Pranab

Mukherjee proposed 1 central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of

Gold Silver and precious metals sold under a brand name

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 75: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7581

69

bull Indias bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1 excise duty that the government

announced on gold silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the

Parliament

bull Indian bullion industry leaders criticised the hike in the central excise duty on jewellery

articles of gold silver and other precious metals

During March 2011

bull The recent rebound in the US stock market from the March lows is a negative factor for

the precious metals markets as it shows that investor risk appetite has increased which

does pull away demand for the safe-have precious metals markets The recent downtrend

of price in US

During September 2011

bull Gold ticked up having gained from the previous session on German approval of a

stronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis but the metal was heading for

its worst monthly decline in three years

During March 2013

bull The metal fell by 61 percent to $157327 an ounce in London this year after 12 straight

annual gains the best run in at least nine decades

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 76: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7681

70

SILVER

bull Silver has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2010 with prices rising by

83 compared to golds 28 As a result the goldsilver price ratio has fallen steadily

this year hitting a four-year low of 45 Silver rose above $30oz for the first time in 30

years as concerns over falling currencies increased investment demand for safe haven

assets

bull Silver posted an average price of $2019 in 2010 a level only surpassed in 1980 and a

marked increase over the $1467 average price in 2009

bull World investment rose by an impressive 40 in 2010 to 2793 million troy ounces

(Moz) resulting in a net flow into silver of $56 billion almost doubling 2009rsquos figure

bull In 2011 - Silver posted an annual average price of $3512 in 2011 more than double the

$1467 average price for 2009

bull Global investment in silver bars coins amp medals produced yet another historic high of

2822 million ounces ndash the equivalent of $10 billion itself is a record

bull 2012 - United States Mint Authorized Purchasers (APrsquos) ordered 3197000 Bullion

American Silver Eagle Coins on January 3rd the first day they went on sale That

opening day total catapulted January Bullion Eagle sales was higher than half of the

monthly totals in 2011

bull A large portion of silver demand (80) comes from fabrication which is expected to

rise about 3 to 5 in 2012 to roughly 900 million ounce

bull Current monetary policy will increase investors appetite for silver and triggering a

subsequent price rise

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 77: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7781

71

CRUDE OIL

bull There are several reasons why todayrsquos blog should be of great interest Last year the

petroleum-related trade deficit totaled $265 billion and accounted for 42 percent of our

total deficit in goods To put this in more personal terms $265 billion averages to about

$850 for every woman man and child in the US In 2008 when oil prices hit their all-

time high the petroleum-related deficit totaled $386 billion (over $1260 for each

person) That is a lot of money flowing out of the country for a commodity with a

volatile price over which we have little control

As per the performance of crude oil traded in december 2010

bull Crude traded near a two-year high price in New York on speculation that cold weather in

the US and Europe will boost demand in industrialized nations

bull One of the more important factors that has driven changes in our imports and trade deficit

over the past several decades is the price of oil Given recent events in North Africa and

the recent jumps in oil prices today we look more closely at the role of oil prices and the

trade deficit

Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 3819 million

metric tonne (MMT) as compared with 3771 MMT during the corresponding period

last year

bull Crude oil price rose by nearly 138 from January to December in 2010despite itrsquos not

as near as the yearly price hike in 2009 of over 78

bull When analysing the prospects of crude oil price in 2011there are several aspects worth

considering

worlds demand growth

OPECwhich is responsible for about 40 percent of the world crude oil

supplyannounced in a recent opec meetingit will sustain its current quota of

24845 million which set back in 2008

Europersquos recovery

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 78: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7881

72

COPPER

bull MCX Copper prices have spiked up sharply in the last five months since July 2010 and

which has given a neckline breakout at Rs 38805 in Nov 2010 on the closing basis The

Inverted Head and Shoulder formation which has been formed from May 2006 to Oct

2010

bull In 2011 worldrsquos copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to

capacity and remained at the 2010 level of 16005 million metric tonnes (MMT)

bull In 2011 the global refined copper production was 19630 MMT up from 18998 MMT in

2010 The global refined copper consumption was 19988 MMT compared with 19375

MMT in the previous year

bull Electric and electronic products industry has become Indias largest copper consuming

sector accounting for 36 of the total Indian copper consumption Telecom is still

Indias second largest copper consuming sector accounting for 20 of the total Indian

copper consumption

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 79: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 7981

73

CHAPTER VI

SUGGESTIONS

1 By making an analysis of RSI of each commodity for the past 3 financial year we can

say GOLD is the best commodity to invest But in the end of the month of march

2013the gold price declined due to certain reasons

There are some supportive issues for the decline of gold price in the trading session one

of it is the rise of the US dollar VS the Euro after rumours about the Euro bank so we

watch a rise in the US dollar and the investors escape to it and they work on selling gold

which lead to a decline in Gold price So the investor can make investment only after

undestanding the factors which adversly affect the gold

5 Sterlite Industries Hindalco and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of Copper

in India From the status of a net importer India is emerging as a net exporter of Copper

on account of a rise in the production of Copper So the investor can confidently invest in

Copper

6 We can confidentially predict a complete sell out of the gold because of the soverigncrisisSo the investor may get a better return at that time

7 Demand for silver in technology and industries is only going to increase and this may

cause an increase in priceThere is no substitute for silver in almost all products that it is

used inSo the investor will have a better choice for a long term investment

8 For 2013 it may continue to see robust crude oil prices with the trading near triple digits

Domestic producers may continue to increase output and some firms would generate

tremendous returns from some of these prospectsSo the investor can get better return by

making investment in crude oil

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 80: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8081

74

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the performance of Indian commodity market is not so efficient in last

few years Other than Gold all other concerned commodities showed a negative trend and return

fluctuates throughout the period of study Every commodity spot price move along with future

priceAt the end of financial year 2013 the price of all commodities started to reduceTo

concludeGold could be suggested as the best investment option

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin

Page 81: A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Reference to Share Khan

8132019 A Study on Performance of Indian Commodity Market for Top Four Commodities Traded in Mcxwith Special Referehellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-study-on-performance-of-indian-commodity-market-for-top-four-commodities 8181

75

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books

bull Business statistics published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SONIA TAYLOR

bull Financial management published by Tata McGraw Hill 1998 Khan amp Jain

Articles

bull BhattacharyaH (2007) Commodity Derivative Market in India Economic andpolitical

weekly March issue

bull Kaminsky Graciela (1989) Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

bull Kabra K N (2007) ldquoCommodity Futures in Indiardquo Economic Political Weekly March

Websites

bull wwwfmcgovin

bull wwwncdexindiacom

bull wwwwikipediacom

bull wwwmcxindiacom

bull wwwcommodityindiacom

bull wwwinvestopediacom

bull wwwsharekhancom

bull wwwftkmccom

bull wwwfmcgovin