a study of changing trends of the ambient dry bulb ...kota bharu, kuching, sibu, bintulu and bandar...
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A Study of Changing Trends of the Ambient Dry Bulb Temperature
and Relative Humidity in Malaysia and Brunei
C. K. Chang +
Heating, Ventilating, Air Conditioning& Refrigeration Section, Universiti Kuala Lumpur Malaysia France
Institute, Section 14, Jalan Teras Jernang, 43650 Bandar Baru Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia1
Abstract. Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the HVAC system design, especially in
tropical climates, such as Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of
20 years of meteorological data (1988 – 2007) from seven weather stations in Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur-
Subang), Bayan Lepas, Kota Bharu, Miri, Sibu, Bintulu and Kuching) and one in Brunei (Bandar Seri
Begawan). Studies are focused on the dry bulb temperature and relative humidity. A rising trend for
temperature has been identified. The annual average dry bulb temperature has increased at ~0.6 oC in Kuala
Lumpur (Subang) over the past 20 years, whilst the relative humidity has decreased at ~3 percentage points
for the same period. The analysis results have implied that the changing degree of the climate in each study
city is different. Hence, it is advisable to generate individual weather data for cities and towns in Malaysia
and Brunei for building thermal load calculation purposes. This will help to produce a more accurate heat
load calculation for the HVAC systems in a building. The weather data can also be used to forecast the future
of the Malaysian climatic scenario, which will help the building designer to counter climate change
implications on the building load. The authors strongly believe that the results obtained serve the purpose in
designing viable HVAC systems in the future in Malaysia and Brunei.
Keywords: HVAC, weather data, climate change
1. Introduction
The climate is changing globally with the earth warming up gradually over a range of timescale. Natural
events and human activities are believed to be the factors causing these phenomena. There are many human
activities contribute to climate change such as the burning of fossil fuels, agricultural activities, deforestation
of vast areas for housing development, road building, shipping, and etc. These activities directly increase the
emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), water vapor, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, tropospheric ozone and
Methane (CH4), which are known as greenhouse gases that have been authenticated as presumably the
decisive responsible factors for climate change [1]. The third assessment report (IPCC 2001) concluded that
“most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse
gas concentrations”. It has been found that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration results in an
increase in the mean global temperature of 2 °C, with considerably more warming at the poles [2]. According
to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [3] report, the ground temperature is predicted to
rise about 1-6 oC from 1990 to 2100. The consequences are the sea level is expected to raise, rapid heat
waves, inundations and droughts will occur frequently and unpredictably. Referring to climate change in
Australia, the solar radiation technical report 2007, a warming trend of 0.16oC per decade occurred since
1950 [4]. This report also mentioned that since 1750, the increase of CO2 has caused a large change in the
radiative forcing in the climate system. Australian surface temperatures have increased significantly, the
precipitation decreased in south-west Australia since the mid-1970s, droughts that accompanied by higher
temperatures in Australia in 1994, 2002-03 and 2006-07, the decline in snow cover in recent decades, the
increase of the warm days/nights frequency and a decrease of cool days/nights frequency have been
attributed by the increased of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere or anthropogenic warming [4]. Climate Corresponding author. Tel.: + 603-8913 2800; fax: +603- 8925 8845.
E-mail address: [email protected].
International Proceedings of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering, V0l. 100 (2017) DOI: 10.7763/IPCBEE. 2017. V100. 4
19
change is also expected to cause flooding and sea level rise in the future. According to the IPCC assessment
(IPCC, 2007) it is expected that the winter rainfall might increase by 10-15%, whilst the summer rainfall
might decrease by up to 20% over England by the 2080s under the A1B (medium) emissions scenario.
Christel Prudhomme et al. found that there will be an increase in both the magnitude and frequency of
flood events in the UK in the future [5]. As for the global sea level rise, it is projected to be increased 18-59
cm by 2100. It was stated in the Climate change in Australia technical report 2007, that the sea level rise on
the east coast of Australia may be greater than the global mean sea level rise. In addition to the consequences
mentioned above, it is important to mention here that climate change also has a direct significant effect on
the building power consumption and building thermal load. There have been many studies carried out on the
impact of climate change on the building cooling and heating energy demand. Frank had studied the impact
of climate change on the cooling and warming demand in Zurich-Kloten region [6]. Mirasgedis S et al. had
simulated the impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Greece in his studies [7]. On the other hand,
Scott et al. had investigated the effects of climate change on electricity consumption in a building in their
research [8]. There are a few researches done in Hong Kong that were relevant to climate effects on cooling
load determination and energy performance in their buildings [9]-[11]. Admittedly, the climate change brings
a significant effect on the building’s cooling and heating load, the electricity consumption and the outdoor
design conditions for the air conditioning system globally as captured in Y.H. Yau et al. [12]. According to
the Asean Energy Organization, 50% to 60% of energy consumption in buildings throughout its member
states is due to the HVAC system operation [13]. Goodsall CJ and Lam JC in their research mentioned that
40-60% of the total power consumption in a commercial building in Hong Kong contributed by air
conditioning systems [14]. The air conditioning system consumes about 60% of electricity in Saudi Arabia
[15]. Admittedly, climate change has direct impact or influence on building cooling or heating load
calculation. From another study done by Peng Xu et al. [16], they simulated the building energy usage for
2040, 2070 and 2100 time scenario based on the IPCC’s worst case carbon emission scenario, A1F1, the
electricity use for cooling will increase by 50% over the next 100 years in certain areas of California. On the
other hand, they re-ran the simulation under the IPCC’s most likely carbon emission scenario (A2), the
cooling electricity usage was projected will increase by 25%. Air conditioning systems have become a
necessity or a need for Malaysians due to its hot and humid climate.
The authors have studied the Malaysian climate change profile which has a significant effect on the air
conditioning cooling capacity estimation. The authors focused on the changing trend of the dry bulb
temperature and relative humidity in several cities in Malaysia and Brunei, viz. are Bayan Lepas, Subang,
Kota Bharu, Kuching, Sibu, Bintulu and Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei. These two (2) parameters have direct
influence on the building thermal load calculation.
2. Research Methodologies
2.1. Characteristics of the Study Areas
According to Koeppen climate classification, Malaysia and Brunei are categorized under Group Af
climate, which is the tropical rainforest climate. It is considered as a hot and humid tropical climate. It is a
sub-category from tropical climates. Figure 1 depicts the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification in Asia-
Pacific. The characteristic of tropical climates is the average temperatures of the whole year is above or equal
to 18oC. Basically, it demonstrates constant high temperature at sea level and low elevations. Whilst, the
tropical rainforest climate normally occur within 5-10o latitude of the equator where Malaysia and Brunei are
located. The average precipitation is at least 60mm for all twelve (12) months. The main variable of this
climate is the precipitation, neither temperature nor air pressure. The average temperature for the coastal
plains, inland and mountain areas, and the higher mountain regions of Malaysia is 28oC, 26
oC and 23
oC,
respectively. The average daily temperature for Brunei varies from 24oC to 30
oC. The relative humidity for
both countries is fall between the range of 70 and 90 percent (%). Due to the Doldrums Low Pressure System
influence all year round, there are no natural seasons under this climate.
20
Fig. 1: Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification in Asia-Pacific
2.2. Data and Analytical Methods
This paper focused on an analysis of 20 years of meteorological data (1988 – 2007) from 7 weather
stations in Malaysia and 1 weather station in Brunei. These are Kuala Lumpur (Subang), Bayan Lepas, Kota
Bharu, Kuching, Sibu, Miri, Bintulu, and Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei. Kuala Lumpur (Subang), Bayan
Lepas and Kota Bharu are located on the Peninsula of Malaysia, whereas Kuching, Sibu, Miri, Bintulu and
Bandar Seri Begawan are located on the Island of Borneo. Kota Bharu which is located at the east coast of
Peninsula of Malaysia, Kuching, Sibu, Miri, Bintulu and Bandar Seri Begawan are exposed to the Northeast
Monsoon from December to March [17,18,19] that will bring heavy showers to Malaysia, whilst Bayan
Lepas and Kuala Lumpur (Subang) that are located at the West coast of Peninsula of Malaysia are exposed to
the Southwest Monsoon from May to September. This monsoon is considered drier than the former. Due to
the rain shadow effect of the Sumatran mountain range, Kuala Lumpur (Subang) does not receive heavy rain
falls from Southwest Monsoon [20]. Figure 2 indicates the exact location of the weather stations.
Fig. 2: The location of studied weather stations (Image source: Google Earth)
Daily weather data was obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) [21] and The
Brunei Meteorological Service (BMS) [22] for the period of 1988 to 2007. Studies were focused on yearly
average, maximum and minimum of dry bulb temperature, and relative humidity for the 8 weather stations.
Furthermore, a comparison of the trends for the past 20 years among the weather stations has been
undertaken. This serves to indicate the potential implications of a changing climate in view of the current
climatic trends.
21
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Characteristics of the Study Areas
Figures 3 and 4 demonstrate the yearly average dry bulb temperature and average relative humidity
profile from 1988 to 2007 of the investigated weather stations. Based on the 20 years daily meteorological
data (1988 – 2007) from the Malaysian Meteorological Department and The Brunei Meteorological Service,
a rising trend has been observed for the dry bulb temperature in all 8 studied cities. For example, the annual
average dry bulb temperature has increased by ~0.6 oC in Subang (near, Kuala Lumpur) over the past 20
years, whilst the relative humidity has decreased by ~3.4 percentage points over the same period. Whereas,
Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei experienced an increase of ~0.6 oC for its dry bulb temperature and a decrease
of ~5.7 percentage points for its relative humidity over the same period
Average Dry Bulb Temperature vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Dry
Bu
lb T
em
pe
ratu
re (
oC
)
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
Dry
Bu
lb T
em
pe
ratu
re (
oC
)
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
mean temp Regr
Fig. 3: Average Dry Bulb Temperatures from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
Average Relative Humidity vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Rela
tive H
um
idity (
%)
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
Rela
tive H
um
idity (
%)
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
mean RH Regr
Fig. 4: Average Relative Humidity from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
From Figure 3, Bayan Lepas on the Malaysian Peninsula has shown higher average dry bulb
temperatures during this period; its changing trend resembles Subang. There was a peak manifested in 1998
for every studied city, except Bayan Lepas, there was an anomalous peak in 2002. Figuratively, Sibu,
Kuching, Bintulu, Miri and Bandar Seri Begawan have similar dry bulb temperature changing trends which
can be seen in Figure 3. These five (5) cities are situated on the Island of Borneo and facing the South China
Sea. These cities are surrounded by vast areas of forestry or vegetation, and geographically near the sea and
22
rivers. We perceived that for those cities exposed to the Northeast monsoon which bring abundance of
monsoon rain experienced a higher relative humidity compared to those cities like Kuala Lumpur (Subang)
and Bayan Lepas which do not. Literally, there is a positive correlation between rainfall and humidity which
states that high humidity can be both a cause and consequence of deep convection rainfall [23]. Conversely,
the dry bulb temperature for these cities will be lower compared to Bayan Lepas, Subang etc.
Bayan Lepas (Lat 5.3oN, Long 100.2
oE) is a high density and compact city. Its city area is estimated
about 200 km2 with the city population of about 141,000 in 2007. It is the main industrial hub of Penang,
where factories of many multinational companies are located. The excessive burning and combustion of
organic substances to produce energy, industrial processes and transport has imparted a significant
greenhouse gas emission. Therefore, the economic activities in Bayan Lepas are believed to be the main
contributor to the highest yearly average dry bulb temperature city among the eight (8) studied cities. Subang
(Lat 3.11oN, Long 101.55
oE) has matured into a community well-provided with amenities. The total area of
Subang is about 70 km2 with the population about 708,296 in 2010. The density is about 10,118/km
2. There
are numerous schools, colleges, hospitals, places of worship, and vibrant commercial areas in the town. The
daily heavy traffic flow increases the emission of CO2 and heat rejection from the vehicles has caused the
higher dry bulb temperature in the city. Other researches, e.g Sailor [24] and Roth [25], have shown that
waste heat and moisture generated by energy consumption in the urban cities to the environment have been
generally ignored especially in tropical climates. Therefore, the rising dry bulb temperatures over the past 20
years could have been potentially caused by the urban heat island (UHI) effects and the commercial activities
that cause high heat emission rates in both cities, viz. Bayan Lepas and Subang. UHI is considered as one of
the most important contributors to the high ambient dry bulb temperature in urban cities. Fan and Sailor [26]
did a temperature simulation and suggested that waste heat from human activities, vehicular traffic, buildings
and human metabolism has contributed about 2-3 oC to the nighttime UHI of Philadelphia in winter. This
phenomenon was supported by Chen et al. [27] who did numerical simulations on waste heat emissions’
effect on UHI intensity in Hangzhou City, and Rohinton Emmanuel et at. [28] who did the urban heat island
effect in mature cities. In Anne K.L. Quah and Mattias Roth’s research, which was done in Singapore, has
revealed that the mean hourly heat release hit the maximum value of 113 Wm-2
in the commercial area, 17
Wm-2
in the high density public housing area and 13 Wm-2
in the low density residential areas, respectively
over a 24-h period [29]. The total area for Kota Bharu (Lat 6.16oN, Long 102.28
oE) is 403 km
2 with its
population about 491,237 in 2010. It is located at the East Coast of Peninsula Malaysia. Generally, the dry
bulb temperature at Kota Bharu is lower than Subang and Bayan Lepas. Compared to Bayan Lepas and
Subang, it is less developed. With its geographical location which is exposed to the Northeast Monsoon that
normally brings heavy showers from November to March, hence the average dry bulb temperature is lower.
Kuching (Lat 1.48oN, Long 110.33
oE) has a vast area of about 1,863 km
2 with population of about
617,887 in 2010. It represents a less developed area that is still covered with rainforest in most of the areas. It
is surrounded by rainforest and is near to an estuary. Transpiration or water evaporation through trees will
increase the water vapor content in the air. And marine air flow moderates temperatures and increases
humidity. Therefore, Figure 3 and Figure 4 show that Kuching is experiencing the highest relative humidity
and lowest temperature among the studied cities. Sibu (Lat 2.33oN, Long 111.83
oE) is an inland town, and it
is located at the confluence of the Rajang and Igan Rivers. It is about 60 km away from the ocean. Sibu’s
area is about 2,230 km2 with its population of about 247,995 in 2010. The density is approximately 111/km
2.
Comparing to other cities, Sibu has fallen behind its regional rivals in its level of economic development.
From the Figure 3 and 4, it displays a lower dry bulb temperature and higher relative humidity compared to
others due to its geographic location. Bintulu (Lat 3.2oN, Long 113.03
oE) is a coastal town and it has a
widest land among the studied cities, with the total area about 7,220 km2 but the lowest population of about
189,146 in 2010. There are three (3) liquefied natural gas plants in Bintulu. The production of the plant is
believed has led to the higher dry bulb temperature compared to Sibu and Kuching. The total area and
population for Miri (Lat 4.33oN, Long 113.98
oE) is 4,707 km
2 and 300,543 (in 2010) respectively. It has
similar dry bulb temperature changing profile with Bintulu. This is due to both having similar oil and gas
industries in the city. Miri showed the highest dry bulb temperature and relative humidity among the towns
of Sibu, Bintulu and Kuching. Bandar Seri Begawan (Lat 4.93oN, Long 114.93
oE), Brunei more developed
23
and urbanized compared to Kuching, Sibu, Bintulu and Miri. That is the reason for its higher dry bulb
temperature and lower relative humidity. The urbanization and commercial activities have contributed to
these results.
Figure 5 and Figure 6 demonstrate the maximum and minimum of dry bulb temperature for each studied
city from year 1988 to 2007. Obviously, the cities can be categorized into two (2) groups viz. Peninsula
Malaysia and Island of Borneo based on the temperature range characteristics. But, there is an exception,
where Kuching’s maximum and minimum of dry bulb temperature changing characteristic has fallen into the
Peninsula Malaysia group. The same occurs to the maximum and minimum of relative humidity of the
studied cities which was exhibited in Figure 7 and 8. The graphs have shown an increasing trend for both
maximum and minimum dry bulb temperature over the past 20 years, or in other words, the climate has
changed. Among the studied cities, Subang has experienced the highest dry bulb temperature in 1998 which
was 31.4oC.
Maximum Dry Bulb Temperature vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Dry
Bulb
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Dry
Bulb
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
Fig. 5: Maximum Dry Bulb Temperature from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
Minimum Dry Bulb Temperature vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Dry
Bulb
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
23
24
25
26
27
28
Dry
Bulb
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
23
24
25
26
27
28Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
Fig. 6: Minimum Dry Bulb Temperature from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
Referring to Figure 7 and 8, the maximum and minimum relative humidity of the studied cities can also
be categorized into the same groups as occurred in the dry bulb temperature. Kota Bharu has the highest
relative humidity that was 98.6% in 1994 over the past 20 years among the studied cities. It occurred during
the rainy season from November to March brought by the North East Monsoon. At every year end, Kota
Bharu will be experiencing serious flooding due to the continuous heavy showers brought by the monsoon.
24
Maximum Relative Humidity vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Re
lative H
um
idity (
%)
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Re
lative H
um
idity (
%)
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
Fig. 7: Maximum Relative Humidity from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
Minimum Relative Humidity vs Year
Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Rela
tive H
um
idity (
%)
40
50
60
70
80
90
Rela
tive H
um
idity (
%)
40
50
60
70
80
90
Subang
Kota Bharu
Kuching
Bayan Lepas
Miri
Bintulu
Sibu
Brunei
Fig. 8: Minimum Relative Humidity from 1988 to 2007 for selected weather stations in Malaysia and Brunei
Table 1 displays the summary of observed weather data trends for the studied cities. Based on these
summary results, the authors found that the trends observed in Malaysia and Brunei is similar to the
temperature rise observed as a global trend [2]. Furthermore, 1988 was the hottest year over the past 20 years
for all 8 sites which corresponds to the announcement by NASA climatologists in January 2008 that 1998
was the Earth’s warmest year in a century [30]. This gives confidence in the validity of the analyzed data.
Table 1: Summary of weather change from 1988 to 2007
City Bayan
Lepas
Kota
Bharu Kuching Sibu Bintulu Miri
Kuala
Lumpur
(Subang)
Bandar Seri
Begawan Weather
element
Dry bulb
temperature
(oC)
+0.8 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.2 +0.6 +0.6 +0.6
Relative
Humidity
(%)
-2.4 -0.1 0.0 -1.9 -3.4 -3.3 -3.4 -5.7
Note: + denotes increment; - denotes decrement
25
4. Conclusions
A control of CO2 emissions is crucial to prevent the global warming effect to worsen. The Kyoto
Protocol was enforced in February 2005 to monitor the overall reduction of emissions based on an offer and
demand market economy. From Figures 3 and 4, and Table 1, it can be seen that there is a changing trend for
the climate in Malaysia and Brunei. It is parallel to the reports from the World Bank that the CO2 emission
(kt) in Malaysia has increased from 42,724 in 1988 to 194,919 in 2007. On the other hand, according to
World Bank reports, the population of Malaysia was 16.94 million in 1988 and has been increased to 27.186
million in 2007 which has contributed to the increase of CO2 emissions, either from the building sector or
transportation sector. Attention should be taken earnestly as the climate change will result in a significant
impact on the energy consumption on buildings, especially contributed by heating, ventilating and air
conditioning (HVAC) systems in Malaysia. The analysis results have implied that the changing degree of
the climate in each study city is different. Hence, it is advisable to generate individual weather data for cities
and towns in Malaysia for building thermal load calculation purposes which is also the further studies of the
author in the future. This will help to produce a more accurate heat load calculation for the HVAC systems in
a building. The weather data can also be used to forecast the Malaysian future climate scenario, which will
help the building designer to counter climate change implications on the building load.
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