A Strategic Assessment of St. Louis: Growth and Equity

Henry S. Webber

Executive Vice Chancellor and Chief Administrative Officer

Professor of Practice, George Warren Brown School of Social Work and Sam Fox School of Art and Architecture

St. Louis Growth and Equity Analysis

• Review success of the St. Louis region and City compared to 14 peer regions on growth and equity

• 2016 and change over time 2000-2016• Data analyzed on three scales:

• MSA• City• Corridors within the City of St. Louis

St. Louis Growth and Equity Analysis

Focused on demographic indicators for growth and equity:• Population• Educational Attainment• Educational Attainment for White and African American• Per Capita Income • Per Capita Income Differential between White and African-American

Regions

─ Atlanta─ Baltimore─ Chicago─ Cincinnati─ Cleveland ─ Columbus─ Denver─ Detroit─ Indianapolis─ Kansas City─ Milwaukee─ Minneapolis─ Nashville─ Pittsburgh

St. Louis Region

St. Louis Region (2016)

• Population: 2,803,449• Racial Composition: 74.2% White, 18.2% Black, 2.9% Hispanic, 4.8% Other

(Asian, Pacific Island, Native American) • % Population 18-34: 22.6%• % Population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher: 32.6% • Per Capita Income: $31,322• Per Capita Income by Race: White: $33,267; Black: $18,261• White/Black Income Ratio: 91.3%• Median House Value: $159,500• Median Monthly Housing Costs: $943

STL Region (2016) - Population

9,528,396

5,612,777

4,296,731

3,488,436

2,803,449

2,780,873

2,752,056

2,354,926

2,146,410

2,070,147

2,061,630

1,995,004

1,968,768

1,794,570

1,571,730

Chicago

Atlanta

Detroit

Minneapolis

St. Louis

Baltimore

Denver

Pittsburgh

Cincinatti

Kansas City

Cleveland

Columbus

Indianapolis

Nashville

Milwaukee

STL Region (2016) – Race/Ethnicity

Other: Asian, Island Pacific, Native American, Two or more racesShown by largest percent White for comparison

86.1%80.4% 77.1% 74.7%

74.2%73.8% 73.3% 73.2% 70.7% 67.6% 67.1% 64.9%

58.1% 53.7% 48.8%

62.0%

8.1% 12.1%7.6% 14.7%

18.2%

14.7% 12.4%15.1% 19.7%

16.4% 22.3%

5.4%28.6%

16.6%32.9%

12.3%

1.6% 2.9%

5.6%3.8% 2.9% 5.1% 8.7% 6.8%

5.3%10.2% 4.2%

22.8%

5.3%

21.6%10.4%

17.3%

4.3% 4.5%9.7%

6.8%4.8%

6.4% 3.3%5.0% 4.3% 5.9% 6.4% 6.9% 8.0% 8.1% 7.8% 8.6%

Other Hispanic Black White

STL Region (2016) – Per Capita Income

$36,998 $36,359 $36,162 $35,474 $33,739

$32,267 $31,728 $31,258 $30,968 $30,399 $30,292 $30,269 $29,822 $29,690 $29,244 $29,829

STL Region (2016) – White* Per Capita Income

* White Alone, Not Hispanic or Latino

$44,796 $44,628 $44,341

$41,407 $40,752 $39,475

$38,084 $36,690

$34,551 $34,258 $34,109 $33,980 $33,796 $33,367 $32,872 $35,457

Chart Title

STL Region (2016) – Black* Per Capita Income

* Black or African American Alone

$25,414

$23,426 $21,807 $21,213 $20,984 $20,860

$19,150 $18,895 $18,791 $18,732 $18,667 $18,637 $17,236 $17,063

$15,566

$20,087

STL Region (2016) – Per Capita Income RatioThe percent difference between white and black per capita incomes

62%

75% 76% 76% 77%81% 82% 84%

89% 92%97%

102%

115%

140%145%

77%

Chart Title

St. Louis Region, Change Over Time (2000-2016)

• Population: Grew by 5.9%

• Change in Race/Ethnicity: Very slight increases in white and black populations. Doubled the % population of Hispanic, although still a small percent (2.9%) of the overall population.

• % Population Age 18-34: No significant change in % of population aged 18-34

• Educational Attainment: In 2000, 25% of the population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher, in 2016 the % increased to 32.6%.

• Per Capita Income: Decrease by 3.6% (2016 adjusted)

• Per Capita Income by Race: White: Increase by 2.7%, Black: Decrease by 6.8% (2016 adjusted)

• Change in White/Black PCI Ratio: 23% Increase in the PCI gap

St. Louis Region (2000-2016) - % Change in Population

31.6%

29.9%

26.3%

19.1%

18.7%

15.1%

14.3%

8.9%

8.7%

5.9%

4.7%

4.7%

-3.1%

-3.5%

-4.0%

13.2%

Atlanta

Nashville

Denver

Columbus

Indianapolis

Minneapolis

Kansas City

Baltimore

Cincinatti

St. Louis

Milwaukee

Chicago

Pittsburgh

Detroit

Cleveland

U.S.

St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-16.1%

-15.1%

-11.9%

-8.4%

-6.6%

-6.4%

-6.3%

-5.7%

-4.9%

-4.3%

-3.2%

-0.7%

5.2%

6.0%

6.2%

-4.1%

Detroit

Atlanta

Indianapolis

Cleveland

Columbus

Cincinnati

Milwaukee

Nashville

Chicago

Denver

Minneapolis

St. Louis

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Kansas City

U.S.

St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in White* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-14.5%

-8.6%

-7.6%

-5.1%

-2.8%

-2.5%

-2.4%

-1.5%

0.2%

0.5%

2.0%

2.7%

7.6%

9.4%

11.4%

-0.9%

Detroit

Atlanta

Indianapolis

Cleveland

Nashville

Columbus

Cincinnati

Milwaukee

Chicago

Denver

Minneapolis

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

Kansas City

U.S.

White alone, not including Hispanic

St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in Black* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-20.4%

-18.0%

-17.4%

-15.0%

-14.9%

-12.3%

-11.6%

-10.8%

-9.5%

-6.8%

-5.5%

-3.6%

-1.1%

-0.4%

9.6%

-3.4%

-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Detroit

Indianapolis

Cleveland

Columbus

Minneapolis

Cincinnati

Denver

Atlanta

Milwaukee

St. Louis

Chicago

Kansas City

Nashville

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

U.S.

Black alone, not including Hispanic

St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in the Ratio Between White PCI and Black PCI (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

42%

39%

39%

35%

35%

34%

29%

23%

21%

18%

16%

12%

6%

-1%

-4%

6%

Columbus

Minneapolis

Kansas City

Indianapolis

Denver

Cleveland

Cincinnati

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Detroit

Milwaukee

Chicago

Atlanta

Baltimore

Nashville

U.S. Chart Title

St. Louis City (2016)

• Population: 316,030• Racial Composition: White: 42.7%, Black: 47.8%, Hispanic: 3.9%, Other: 5.5%• % Population Age 18-34: 30%• % Population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher: 33%• Per Capita Income: $26,040• Per Capita Income by Race: White: $37,617; Black: $15,930• Difference between White and Black Per Capita Income: 136.1%• Median House Value: $123,780• Median Monthly Housing Costs: $810

St. Louis City (2016) – Population

2,714,017

846,674

837,038

683,443

663,303

643,771

621,000

598,672

471,767

456,378

404,670

389,165

316,030

305,305

298,011

Chicago

Indianapolis

Columbus

Detriot

Denver

Nashville

Baltimore

Milwaukee

Kansas City

Atlanta

Minneapolis

Cleveland

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

The City of St. Louis represents 11.3% of the St. Louis Region’s population

St. Louis City (2016) – Racial Composition

Other: Asian, American Indian, Pacific Islander, Two or More RacesShown by largest percent White for comparison

64.4% 60.4% 57.5% 56.5% 55.7% 55.4% 53.4% 48.8%42.7%

37.2%

36.0% 34.3% 32.3% 27.7%

9.5%

62.0%

24.0%

18.5% 27.6% 27.8% 27.9% 28.9%

9.4%

42.8%47.8% 51.9%

38.8%50.1%

30.6%

62.4%

79.4%

12.3%

2.8%

9.6%5.8% 9.9% 10.3% 10.0%

30.8%

3.2% 3.9% 4.8%

18.2%10.8%

29.1%

4.8% 7.5%

17.3%

8.7%11.6% 9.0%

5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 6.5%5.2% 5.5% 6.1% 7.0%

4.8% 7.9% 5.1%3.6%

8.6%

Other Hispanic Black White

St. Louis City (2016) - Per Capita Income

$39,608 $37,488

$34,288

$31,582 $30,128 $29,892 $29,190

$27,775 $26,775 $26,395 $26,040 $25,692

$21,121

$18,432 $15,933

$29,829

St. Louis City (2016) – White* Per Capita Income

$68,269

$44,194 $43,529 $42,989 $41,943 $37,617 $36,629 $35,935 $35,713 $35,281

$31,218 $30,968 $28,636

$24,924

$19,329

35,457

White only, Hispanic not Included

St. Louis City (2016) – Black* Per Capita Income

$22,315

$20,943 $20,104

$19,422 $19,240 $18,635 $18,265 $18,238 $18,217

$16,189 $15,930 $15,653 $15,021 $14,535

$13,943

$20,087

Black alone, not including Hispanic

St. Louis City (2016) – Per Capita Income RatioThe percent difference between white and black per capita incomes

266.3%

199.5%

136.1%126.3% 123.4% 119.8%

93.2% 90.6% 88.0% 85.0%78.8%

71.2% 70.5% 70.0%

23.5%

77.0%

St. Louis City, Change Over Time, 2000-2016

• Population: 9.2% population loss

• Racial Composition: Decline in both white and black populations with very slight increases in Hispanic, Asian, Island Pacific, and two or more races

• Population shift: 14.5% increase in 18-34 year olds as a percentage of total population

• Education: In 2000, 19.1% of the population over 25 had a Bachelors Degree or more, in 2016, 33% of the City’s population over 25 had a Bachelors Degree or more

• Per Capita Income: 9.6% increase

• Per Capita Income by Race: 13.7% increase in white PCI, 5.3% decrease in black PCI

• Income Gap: 53.9% increase in the difference between white PCI and black PCI between 2000-2016

St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Population

19.6%

18.0%

17.6%

9.6%

8.3%

6.8%

5.8%

0.3%

-4.6%

-6.3%

-8.7%

-9.2%

-10.0%

-18.7%

-28.2%

13.2%

Denver

Nashville

Columbus

Atlanta

Indianapolis

Kansas City

Minneapolis

Milwaukee

Baltimore

Chicago

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Detroit

U.S.

St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-26.6%

-19.5%

-12.6%

-12.5%

-11.5%

-9.1%

-7.2%

-4.7%

2.5%

4.2%

5.4%

6.1%

7.7%

9.6%

10.9%

-4.1%

Detroit

Indianapolis

Cleveland

Columbus

Milwaukee

Cincinnati

Nashville

Kansas City

Minneapolis

Atlanta

Denver

Chicago

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Baltimore

U.S.

St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in White* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-24.4%

-14.1%

-8.4%

-8.3%

-7.7%

-7.0%

-6.8%

-3.6%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-0.1%

3.1%

9.7%

16.8%

19.2%

-0.9%

Detroit

Indianapolis

Atlanta

Milwaukee

Columbus

Cleveland

Nashville

Cincinnati

Denver

Kansas City

Chicago

Minneapolis

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Baltimore

U.S.

White Alone, not Hispanic

St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Black* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

-27.2%

-21.2%

-19.7%

-18.7%

-18.3%

-16.8%

-11.0%

-9.9%

-8.2%

-6.8%

-5.5%

-4.0%

-2.1%

0.2%

3.8%

-3.4%

Detroit

Indianapolis

Minneapolis

Cleveland

Columbus

Cincinnati

Milwaukee

Denver

Kansas City

St. Louis

Chicago

Atlanta

Nashville

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

U.S.

St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in the Ratio Between White PCI and Black PCI (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)

53.9%

49.7%

40.1%

38.4%

32.4%

31.0%

25.1%

24.1%

21.8%

16.4%

13.1%

10.8%

6.8%

-6.2%

-10.7%

6.0%

St. Louis

Minneapolis

Cleveland

Columbus

Cincinnati

Baltimore

Indianapolis

Detroit

Pittsburgh

Denver

Kansas City

Chicago

Milwaukee

Atlanta

Nashville

U.S.

Map

Data analyzed by census tract and grouped into five “Districts” of the City of St. Louis:1. North City

2. North Central Corridor

3. Central Corridor

4. South Central Corridor

5. South City

North Central Corridor

Central Corridor

South Central Corridor

South City

North City

Racial Composition by District, 2016

22,0015,727 14,266 1,817

97,150

22,731

28,121 8,74548,732

38,079

4,317

1,4081,499

669

12,230

Central Corridor Northern Corridor Southern Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts

White African American Other

Note, Hispanic not analyzed separate, included in White or Other

North Central Corridor South Central Corridor

Percent Change in Population by District, 2000-2016

34.1%

-11.7%

-21.8%

-35.3%

-8.5%

Percent Change 2000-2016

North Central Corridor South Central Corridor

Central Corridor

North City Tracts South City Tracts

7.7%

35.0%32.3%

-5.3%-8.3%

-11.3%

-6.3%

-30.7%

0.4%

22.3%

41.9%

48.1%

37.8%

-14.3%

18.6%

White Black Other

Percent Change in Racial Groups by District, 2000-2016

North Central Corridor South Central CorridorCentral Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts

Other: Asian, Island Pacific, Native American, Two or more races

$29,957

$18,554

$25,856

$17,615

$25,066

$33,863

$18,826

$35,179

$14,749

$26,401

2000 2016

Per Capita Income and % Change, (2016 USD), 2000-2016

North Central Corridor South Central CorridorCentral Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts

13.0% 1.46% 36.0%5..3%- 16%

Regional Conclusions

• Per capita income is average and housing costs are lower than average compared to peer regions. Leads to higher real wage.

• Incomes declined much less from 2000-2016 than in most regions

• Population growing very slowly. A 5.9% population growth and during the same time the U.S. saw a 13.2% population increase.

• Large gaps between black and white per capita incomes that grew between 2000-2016

City Conclusions

• Per Capita Income is below average

• Dramatic and growing difference in black and white per capita incomes

• Continue to lose population, albeit slowly

• All growth occurring in the Central Corridor

• Large geographic area in North St. Louis of greater than 50,000 residents whose economic condition is very poor and getting poorer

Opportunities and Conclusions

• PCI and cost of living data argues that St. Louis is an attractive place to live and should be an attractive place for firms to locate.

• The central corridor of the City is becoming a magnet for the white college educated 18-34 year olds.

• Slow population growth in region and city suggest St. Louis is becoming a less important region, with a weaker ability to attract national amenities and airline hubs.

• Sharp gaps in per capita income by race are morally indefensible, lower long-term economic growth, and set the stage for large-scale social disruption.

A Strategic Assessment of St. Louis: Growth and Equity�Henry S. Webber��Executive Vice Chancellor and Chief Administrative Officer�Professor of Practice, George Warren Brown School of Social Work and Sam Fox School of Art and ArchitectureSt. Louis Growth and Equity AnalysisSt. Louis Growth and Equity AnalysisRegionsSt. Louis RegionSt. Louis Region (2016)Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12St. Louis Region, Change Over Time (2000-2016)Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39