a story of two processes it was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of...

A Story of Two Processes

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness….

The QuestionWhy, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem?

Women’s suffrage problem

Slavery problem

Divine right of kings problem

Racial discrimination problem

The dangers of smoking tobacco

The recurring war in Europe problem

Difficult social problems historically take a long time to solve:


Silent Spring

Limits to Growth

Brundtland Report

UN Earth Summit

Kyoto Protocol


“The growth rate of emissions was 3.5% per year for the period of 2000-2007, an almost four fold increase from 0.9% per year in 1990-1999. The actual emissions growth rate for 2000-2007 exceeded the highest forecast growth rates for the decade 2000-2010 in the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES). This makes current trends in emissions higher than the worst case IPCC-SRES scenario.” (Source: www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/07/index.htm .)

“Modern environmentalism is no longer capable of dealing with the world's most serious ecological crisis.” (Source: Shellenberger, Michael and Nordhaus, Ted. 2004. The Death of Environmentalism.)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/07/index.htm


The field been using the wrong problem solving process.

Scientific MethodProject management processes like CPM and PERTThe Toyota Production SystemThe Capability Maturity Model, for software developmentCountless training and problem solving processes

Examples of the right process:

A Possible Answer

What process are problem solvers currently using to solve the sustainability problem?

As we use the term, an activist is anyone actively working to change the behavior of a social system.

The Process of Classic Activismproblem symptoms

causes

proper practices are not being followed

A. The proper practices are not yet known

causes

C. People don’t want to follow the proper practices, even though they are fully aware of them and why they should logically follow them

causes

B. People don’t know about the proper practices or why they should practice them

causes

Step 1. Identify the problem to be solved

causes

Step 4. Exhort, inspire and bargain with people to get them to support the proper practices

can be solved by

Step 3. Tell people the truth about the problem and the proper practices

can be solved by

Step 2. Find the proper practices

can be solved by

Examples of Classic ActivismOutcomes

Environmental Problems (1) Solution Success

1. Climate change Low

2. Freshwater scarcity Low

3. Deforestation and desertification Low

4. Freshwater pollution Medium

5. Loss of biodiversity Low

6. Air pollution (excluding climate chg) Medium

7. Soil deterioration Low

8. Ecosystem functioning Low

9. Chemical pollution Medium

10. Stratospheric ozone depletion High

11. Natural resource depletion Low

Non-environmental Problems

Women’s suffrage High

Slavery High

Urban decay Medium

Racial, gender, age, etc. discrimination Medium

The dangers of smoking tobacco Medium

The obesity epidemic Low

(1) The 11 problems are from the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment study (SCOPE), whose results were summarized in the UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 2000 on page 339. The problems are sorted in order of decreasing importance. These are approximately the top 11 components of the global environmental sustainability problem.

Does Classic Activism have a flaw?

(Break to examine the tool of simulation modeling to answer the question)

Causal Loop Diagram of Classic Activism

Does Classic Activism have a flaw?

1. It doesn’t consider systemic change resistance.

2. It’s intuitive instead of analytical, so it tends to not find true root causes and the high leverage points needed to resolve them.

We hypothesize that Classic Activism contains these two critical flaws:

Can we develop a better process that lacks these flaws?

The System Improvement Process (SIP)

What quality gate must a better process pass?

The Six Principles1. A complex system problem can be proactively, reliably, and fully

solved only by resolving its root causes.

2. In problems where problem solvers are in the minority or lack governance of the system, root causes can be efficiently resolved only by pushing on their related high leverage points .

3. If analysis finds the correct root causes and high leverage points, solution implementation will be relatively easy.

4. The more difficult the problem, the more mature the process used to solve it must be.

5. Difficult problems are best decomposed into smaller subproblems, each designed to be an order of magnitude easier to solve.

6. Understanding complex social system behavior correctly and deeply requires modeling.

Are these the right principles?

The System Improvement Process (SIP)

The five substeps of system understanding SIP

1. ProblemDefinition

ANALYSIS

Spend about 80% of your time here. The problem solving battle is won or lost in this step, so take the time to get it right.

2. SystemUnderstanding

3. SolutionConvergence

4. Implementation

Find the immediate cause of the problem symptoms in terms of the system's dominant feedback loops. A

Find the root cause of why they are dominant. B

Find the low leverage points and symptomatic solutions. C

Find the feedback loops that should be dominant to resolve the root causes.D

Find the high leverage points to make those loops go dominant.E

A. Change Resistance B. Proper Coupling C. Model Drift

The three subproblems of the main problem

The four main steps of solving each subproblem


Summary of results of executing SIP on the global environmental sustainability problem



4. Implementation

Analysis Results of SIP

ANALYSIS


This is where we’ve spent about 90% of our time.

Root cause of successful change resistance is high deception effectiveness.

You Can’t Fool All of the People All the Time loop needs to go dominant.

HLP is general ability to detect manipulative deception.

Root cause of improper coupling is mutually exclusive goals between corporate life form and Homo sapiens.

Corporate Benevolence loop needs to go dominant.

HLP is rules of the game for corporate life form.

Root cause of excessive model drift is quality of political decision making is too low.

The Race to the Top among Politicians loop needs to go dominant.

HLP is quality of the process of political decision making.

Six solution elements Corporation 2.0Politician decision ratings

Not ready for implementation



Actual progress on the global environmental sustainability problem using Classic Activism

A

B

C

D

E

Done by The Limits to Growth

Dominant loops causing symptoms found by World3 model.

Actual Results of Classic Activism


ANALYSIS




4. Implementation

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The Old and New Paradigms

Classic ActivismAn intuitive approach

Find the proper

practices

Tell the people the truth about the

problem and the proper practices

If that doesn’t work, exhort, inspire and

bargain with people to get

them to support the proper practices

Success on easy problems

Failure on difficult problems

Pushing on low leverage points

Decompose the problem into 3 subproblems:

A. Change ResistanceB. Proper Coupling

C. Model Drift

Use 4 main steps for

each subproblem

Execute the system understanding step using the 5 substeps

and simulation modeling

Success on easy problems

Success on difficult problems

Pushing on high leverage points

How can we accelerate a change from Classic Activism to a process that’s capable of solving

the sustainability problem?

System Improvement ProcessAn analytical approach

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