a special report from media group online, inc. · a special report from media group online, inc....

Summer TV: A Splash of CashA Special Report from Media Group Online, Inc.

Cannonball the CompetitionThe competition is fierce for you and your station – and your prospects and clients. With consumer confidence very high, a strong economy and people’s personal financial situation continuing to improve rapidly, you have many opportunities during summer 2018 to make a big splash in your local market.

• Consumer confidence increased from 123.1 during December 2017 to 125.4 for January 2018, according to The Confidence Board Consumer Confidence Index®.

• Americans’ satisfaction with the state of the nation increased to 36% during early February 2018, from 29% during January and a low of 21% during October 2017, the lowest point of the year.

• In a January 2018 Gallup poll, 58% of Americans said they were satisfied with the nation’s economy, a 12% improvement from 2017.

• The American Institute of CPAs’ Personal Financial Satisfaction Index increased 26.9 points during Q4 2017, the seventh quarter of positive increases and the second consecutive quarter at a record level during the 24-year history of the Index.

• The Q1 2018 Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index improved to +107 from 103 for Q4 2017, with the Q1 2018 index the highest of the past 11 years.

• For 2017, the GDP increased 2.3%, compared to 1.5% for 2016, with Q4 2017 producing a solid increase of 2.6%, based on strong holiday shopping and a significant increase in home construction.

Everyone will be ready to take the dive too, so now’s the time to plan a sales strategy and start to show your superior skills as advertisers’ preferred problem solver and media consultant.

This Special Report from Media Group Online, Inc. is filled with information, insights and ideas to help your prospects and clients maximize their sales during a summer season of travel and fun and more consumers willing to spend more money to enjoy all the summer has to offer.


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TV: The Muscle on the Media Beach Despite all the sand traditional media and newcomers to the media beach, such as streaming media services and mobile video, are kicking at linear TV, it still outmuscles everyone with 45% of total media time spent each day by adults 18 and older during 2017.

During the two-year period from Q2 2015 to Q2 2017, total daily linear TV viewing (including DVR) decreased all of 13 minutes, or 4 hours, 40 minutes to 4 hours, 27 minutes.

Average Time Spent Per Adult 18+ Per Day, Q2 2015–Q2 2017

Media/DeviceQ2

2015Q2

2016Q2

2017Live TV 4:11 4:09 3:55

DVR/Time-shifted TV 0:29 0:30 0:32

AM/FM Radio 1:50 1:52 1:50

DVD/Blu-Ray device 0:07 0:07 0:06

Game console 0:12 0:13 0:13

Multimedia device 0:09 0:14 0:19

Internet on a computer 0:43 0:57 0:52

App/Web on a smartphone 1:09 1:43 2:27

App/Web on a tablet 0:20 0:32 0:34

Nielsen, November 2017

App/Web on a smartphone has increased the most during this period, slightly more than 100%, but still only totaled 1 hour, 18 minutes. The upside for live, or linear, TV is that 70.3% of the total population regularly used another digital device while watching TV during 2017 – and most of them, or 162.2 million, were on their smartphone. This number is forecast to increase to 187.3 million by 2019.

The eMarketer research also revealed that most of those people, or 131.5 million, were interacting with content unrelated to what they were watching on TV, but the remaining 46.2 million were interacting with related content. The important point is that they were all watching TV, so it’s very easy to move from one device to another.In addition, eMarketer’s data indicates that interacting with content related to TV viewing is increasing at a slightly higher rate than interacting with unrelated content.

This close affinity of simultaneous TV viewing and smartphone use is an excellent opportunity for your prospects and clients to use this combination to their advantage. Driving viewers to their Websites, apps and/or social media pages via their commercials and driving smartphone users to the programming where local advertisers’ commercials air is a one-two punch that no other media combination can provide.



Retail on the Fast TrackIt seems we’ve been waiting ages for retail to engage the next gear – and it appears to be happening. Not only did 2017 holiday shopping increased 5.1%, compared to 2016 (and a larger increase than the National Retail Federation [NRF] forecasted), but it continued into 2018, with January retail sales increasing 5.4%, compared to January 2017.

Among 8 major retail sectors, only sporting goods stores experienced a year-over-year decrease (January 2018 vs. January 2017), and some even had increases from December. The typical expectation is for January sales to be less than December’s, but this trend bodes well for the remainder of the year, as the NRF is forecasting an increase of 3.8% to 4.4% for all of 2018.

Selected Retail Sectors’ January 2018 Performances, MOM and YOY

Retail Sector MOM YOYOnline/Non-store sales 0.0% +13.2%

Furniture/Home furnishings stores -0.4% +6.6%

Building materials/Garden supply stores -2.4% +6.0%

Clothing/Clothing accessories stores +1.2% +3.1%

General merchandise stores +0.2% +3.0%

Electronics/Appliances stores +0.5% +2.9%

Health/Personal care stores -1.2% +1.8%

Sporting goods stores -0.8% -5.9%

National Retail Federation (US Census Bureau), February 2018

Planning to Purchase

January 2018’s retail sales were very positive, but an even better measure of the strength of retail is consumers’ planned purchases. The Media Audit’s 2018 Rolling Aggregate Report (released during February 2018) of 50 US GMAs represents 120.98 million American adults, or 37.1% of the total population and 48.3% of the total adult population.

US Adults’ Planned Purchases, February 2018

Category Percent TotalPlan to buy a car/van/truck/SUV 22.2% 26.89 M

Plan to buy a personal computer/equipment

30.3% 36.69 M

Plan to buy new furniture 18.1% 21.94 M

Plan to buy bed/mattress, etc. 18.8% 22.73 M

Plan to buy a major household appliance

17.2% 20.83 M

Plan to buy a new TV 22.8% 27.62 M

Plan to buy glasses/contact lenses

24.4% 29.56 M

Plan to buy home during next 2 years

12.7% 15.32 M

Now own a home 5.7% 6.88 M

Now rent 7.0% 8.44 M

Based on The Media Audit’s 2018 Rolling Aggregate Report, February 2018



Counting on ConsumersNumerous studies/surveys reinforce consumers’ preference for shopping in a physical store. Of those participating in a March 2017 Walker Sands Communications survey, 83% said they had made a purchase at a physical store during the past year, and 54% preferred to shop in a physical store.

Interestingly, the Walker Sands survey as well as Retail Dive’s February 2017 survey revealed Millennials and Baby Boomers prefer in-store shopping primarily because they want to touch, feel and try items, even though some will then purchase online. Two-thirds (66%) of women cite this as their #1 reason, compared to 59% of men.

Reasons US Adults Shop in-Store vs. Online, February 2017

Reason All Women MenSee, touch, feel and try items 62% 66% 59%

Take items home immediately 49% 47% 54%

Easier return of items 20% 21% 20%

Enjoy in-store experiences 18% 19% 18%

Ask store associates to answers questions

13% 11% 14%

I only shop online 7% 8% 7%

Retail Dive, February 2017

Despite consumers’ preference for the in-store experience (whatever the reason), some retail channels have experienced declines in trips per shopper and spending per trip, according to Nielsen data.

Shopping Trip Analysis, by Channel*

ChannelTrips/

Shopper%

ChangeSpent/

Trip%

ChangeOnline 6 +8.2% $40 -5.1%

Drug stores 20 -2.0% $20 +1.3%

Dollar stores 30 +0.2% $13 +0.1%

Warehouse clubs 14 -1.6% $66 -2.1%

Pet stores 7 -3.7% $35 -3.6%

Mass merchandisers/Superstores

37 +0.9% $41 -1.0%

Value grocery stores 18 +0.2% $26 +0.5%

Conventional grocery stores

59 -2.5% $33 +0.5%

Premier fresh grocery 14 -2.3% $22 +2.4%

Total 165 -1.3% $31 -0.2%

Nielsen, November 2017*for the 52 weeks ending September 30, 2017

The Middleburbs Movement

The Middleburbs is a social phenomenon that retailers must understand. A few years ago, many Millennials, especially as young, single adults, chose to live in urban environments where many retail stores, entertainment venues and workplaces were within walking distance or very short Uber/Lyft rides.

Now, however, these Millennials are aging and becoming homeowners, and married and parents. They are moving from the center city, bringing the urban vibe with them and contributing to the growth of “middleburbs,” which aren’t the traditional suburbs, which surrounded a central city. Middleburbs are independent living/working environments that don’t rely on a central city’s shopping, entertainment and workspaces.



A Big Season for Sporting EventsBaseball may dominate the summer months, but this year, the world’s most-popular sport will certainly be sharing the stage, as the World Cup begins June 14, with the championship match scheduled for Sunday July 15. Although the US team did not qualify, many hard-core as well as general-interest soccer fans should generate good to excellent viewership numbers. Fox Sports will broadcast the matches on its various sports channels while Telemundo has the exclusive Spanish-language rights.

With Russia as the host country, many live telecasts will be at least 8 hours ahead of the US Eastern Time Zone; so, for example, the 6:00 pm (Moscow time) for the finals will air at 10 am.

• Major League Baseball – Baseball is likely to attract new interest during summer 2018, as the two leagues are implementing a number of new rules to shorten games and accelerate the action.

• Tennis – The French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open are sure to see increased viewership with the return of Serena Williams to these championship stages and Roger Federer being the oldest men’s player to be ranked #1 in the world.

• Golf – Not only will fans want to follow the battle of the young guns, but also will be intrigued by Tiger Wood’s return to the game. His presence in tournaments always boosted ratings and his participation in the Farmers Insurance Open during late January 2018 helped to increased its rating to the highest since 2013.

The Game of Politics

Probably, no “game” is more competitive than politics and the 2018 Midterm elections will certainly maintain that tradition. According to Borrell Associates’ forecast, a total of $8.5 billion will be spent; although it is only 2.5% more than the 2014 Midterms because more money will be allocated for less-expensive digital media.

The total digital media forecast is $1.88 billion, compared to $3.36 billion for broadcast TV. Not only are there many House and Senate seats deemed to be highly competitive, but also many statewide and local elections are likely to receive more voter interest. The Cook Political Report forecasts $2.4 billion will be spent for local broadcast and $850 million for local cable.

Media Group Online will create at least two Political Profilers during the year with more information.



Summer TravelogueWhen Americans travel, they spend money. If summer 2017’s huge number of travelers is any indication of what could occur during summer 2018, then numerous records could be broken.

AAA estimated 39.3 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home during the 2017 Memorial Day Weekend, the most since 2005, and 44.2 million during the Independence Day period, an all-time record. Airlines for America expected 16.1 million Americans to fly during the Labor Day Weekend, a 5% increase from 2016, which was also the previous record.

Gasoline Prices Fuel Every Trip

Gasoline prices typically have the greatest impact on Americans’ summer travel plans and the most-recent forecast from GasBuddy.com indicates that summer 2018’s price ranges and averages will be similar to 2017’s.

Gasoline Price Comparisons, May–September 2017 and 2018

Month2017 2018

Range Average Range Average

May$2.51–$2.83

$2.67$2.57–$2.88

$2.73

June$2.50–$2.76

$2.63$2.48–$2.77

$2.63

July$2.49–$2.68

$2.59$2.43–$2.73

$2.58

August$2.45–$2.65

$2.55$2.41–$2.83

$2.62

September$2.37–$2.61

$2.49$2.40–$2.76

$2.58

GasBuddy.com, December 2016 and 2017

When viewing these comparisons, keep in mind that the average gas price May 17, 2017 was $2.34; June 22, 2017, $2.28; and September 1, 2017, $2.52.

Sumer Weather Watch

Weather is also a critical element of Americans’ summer travel plans. The general forecast for the nation during summer 2018 is rain along the Atlantic seaboard, with low-pressure systems descending from Canada and the sub-tropical “La Nina” effect crossing Texas into the Gulf states, which could repeat last year’s active hurricane season. The forecast for the middle of the country, from the Mountain region across the Plains to the Ohio Valley, is drought and extreme heat.

Long-Range US Weather Precipitation Forecast, by Region, Summer 2018

Region June–AugustNortheast 30% < normal

Southeast 30% < normal

Midwest 20% < normal

Upper Midwest 30% < normal

Plains 30% < normal

Mountain 20% > normal

Southwest Normal

Northwest 20% > normal

Harris-Mann Climatology, February 2018



Culture, Arts, MusicMajor attractions (and many promotional tie-ins for local advertisers) during any summer include music festivals, cultural events, state fairs and movie blockbusters.

Major Music Festivals• Sasquatch! Music Festival: 5/25–27, Washington

• The Governors Ball Music Festival: 6/1–3, New York

• Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival: 6/7–10, Tennessee

• Pitchfork Music Festival: 7/20–22, Chicago

• Lollapalooza: 8/2–5, Chicago

• AFROPUNK FEST Brooklyn: 8/25–26, Brooklyn, NY

• Burning Man: 8/26–9/3, Nevada

Thousands of arts festival and fine craft show enthusiasts voted these as some of the “must-attend” events during summer 2018.

• Rittenhouse Square Fine Arts Show: 6/1–3, Philadelphia

• Old Town Art Fair: 6/9–10, Chicago

• Cherry Creek Arts Festival: 7/6–8, Denver

• Central Pennsylvania Festival of the Arts: 7/12–15, State College, PA

• Krasl Art Fair: 7/14–15, St. Joseph, MI

• Craft Fair of the Southern Highlands: 7/20–22, Ashville, NC

• Art in the High Desert: 8/24–26, Bend, OR

• Sausalito Arts Festival: 9/1–3, Sausalito, CA

As usual, the major movie studios have scheduled some of the year’s biggest movies for the summer months – from romantic comedies to thrillers to superheros to horror to space operas.

• Avengers: Infinity War, May 4

• Where’d You Go Bernadette?, May 11

• Slender Man, May 18

• Solo: A Stars War Story, May 25

• Ocean’s Eight, June 8

• The Incredibles 2, June 15

• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, June 22

• Sicario 2: Soldado, June 22

• I Feel Pretty, June 29

• The Purge: The Island, July 4

• Ant-Man and the Wasp, July 6

• Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, July 20

• Alita: Battle Angel, July 20

• Mission: Impossible 6, July 27

• The Predator, August 3

• The Meg, August 10

• Crazy Rich Asians, August 17

• The Happytime Murders, August 17



A Calendar of PossibilitiesMedia Group Online’s annual Calendar of Events Report (November 2017, in the Broadcast Planning section of the Website) is one of your best resources for finding monthly, weekly and daily events that you can share with your prospects and clients to create targeted promotions. Schedule a sales team brainstorming session, think outside the box and push the envelope.

June

Great Outdoors Month – Sporting goods and camping equipment stores and boat dealers can schedule weekend specials throughout the month and share information on their Websites and social media pages of local outdoors adventures.

National Bathroom Reading Month – Independent bookstores are doing much better than the chains and this unusual event provides them with the opportunity to highlight graphics novels and other selections for those “short periods of repose.” Stores could do a humorous cross-promotion with a plumber or bathroom fixture store to feature stylish commodes in the book store.

Foods and Beverages – National Candy Month; National Iced Tea Month; National Donut Day, 6/1; National Yo-Yo Day, 6/6; and Great American Backyard Campout, 6/23.

July

National Grilling Month – Of the many monthly food events, this is one that provides many promotional opportunities, for food stores, grills/barbecue retailers and restaurants.

Foods and Beverages – National Ice Cream Day, 7/15; and National Chicken and Waffles Day, 7/30.

August

National Exercise with Your Child Week (8/5–11) – Here is an opportunity for health & fitness clubs, martial arts studios, YMCA and other businesses and organizations to promote healthy living and family activities.

Foods and Beverages – National Mustard Day, 8/4, is a promotional opportunity for food stores, restaurants, food trucks and hotdog cart owners. National S’mores Day, 8/10, if local fire laws allow, then food stores and/or restaurants could have a fire in front of their location and roast marshmallows and distribute free S’mores.

Other Events – National Night Out, 8/7; National Vinyl Record Day, 8/12; National Roller Coaster Day, 8/16.

Sources: The Conference Board Website, 2/18; Gallup Website, 2/18; American Institute of CPAs Website, 2/18; AP News Website, 2/18; Nielsen Website, 2/18; Marketing Dive Website, 2/18; U.S. News & World Report Website, 2/18; National Retail Federation Website, 2/18; The Media Audit Website, 2/18; World Population Review Website, 2/18; MarketingProfs Website, 2/18; Retail Dive Website, 2/18; Mindshare in the Loop Website, 2/18; Goal Website, 2/18; Bleacher Report Website, 2/18; Sports Media Watch Website, 2/18; USA Today Website, 2/18; Borrell Associates Website, 2/18; AAA Website, 2/18; CNBC Website, 2/18; GasBuddy.com Website, 2/18; LongRangeWeather.com Website, 2/18; Festicket Website, 2/18; ArtFairCalendar.com Website, 2/18; Thrillist Website, 2/18; Media Group Online, Inc. Website, 2/18.

Prepared: February 2018© 2018 Media Group Online, Inc. All rights reserved.

a special report from media group online, inc. · a special report from media group online, inc....

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