a safe and just operating space: the role of organic …...transitions towards a “safe and just”...
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A safe and just operatingspace: the role of Organicfarming
Gianluca Brunori
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The importance of the SCAR Foresight Process
• The SCAR Foresight process feeds the strategic planning process of research policy making and gives advice to political decision makers (MS, COM).
• The SCAR foresight exercises highlight weak signals as well as future opportunities
• The SCAR Foresight reports have resulted in a high number of joint activities between Member States
The Foresight Process is a pillar of SCAR
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Four SCAR Foresight Studies in Series…
2007 20112009 2015
Climate Change
and Energy
Resilience and
Food Crises 2008
Resource Scarcities
Efficiency vs
Sufficiency
Sustainable
Bioeconomy
2019: „Towards the 5th SCAR Foresight“
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2019: TOWARDS THE 5TH SCAR
FORESIGHT
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Natural resources
and Food Systems:
Transitions
towards a
“safe and just”
operating space
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1. What are the key systemic transitions that meet the
objectives of COP21 and the UN SDGs?
2. What are the enablers and lock-ins towards effective
transitions?
3. What are the costs of transitions and of a continuation of
“business as usual” for the actors and for society?
Specific questions of the V foresight exercise
7
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Europe and planet boundaries
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How to stay within a safe operatingspace?
Planetary boundary / Indicator Target number for 2050
1 Climate change / CO2 emission Reduce CO2 by 84 % in 2050
2 Biosphere integrity / Species
number
Restore declining biodiversity and
their ecosystems. Reach the 2000
level.
3 Land system change / eHANPP Reduce eHANPP by 15 % in 2050
4 Freshwater use / Blue water Keep freshwater use at recent level
5 Biogeochemical flows / Nitrogen
and Phosphorus applications
Reduce N by 86 % in 2050,
Reduce P by 81 % in 2050
6 Novel entities and chemical
pollutions / Pesticide applications
Reducing pesticides by 75% in 2030
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• Resistance to change is embedded into
‘regimes’, rules and routines that ensure
the stability of the system
• The regime controls behavior of individuals
and organization indirectly: knowledge
paradigms, technical and ethical norms,
infrastructures, etc..
• When regimes are challenged by external
drivers (‘Landscape’) or by internal
tensions, they tend to change
• Resources for change are found in ‘niches’,
practices and routines that work already with
Transition approaches
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Sustainablediets for all
Full circularity
of the foodsyustem
Reversingthe trend
to diversityreduction
Three transitions
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Food security,
Responsibleproduction and
consumption
Health
Sufficiency
Agroecology,
Digitalization,
New food sources
Healthy diets
Higher nutritionaldensity
Biomass production within planetboundaries
Zero waste
Exporting sustainablesurpluses
Sustainablediets for all
Transition 1: Sustainable diets for all
Game changers TargetsSDGs
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Life on land
Industry, innovationand infrastructure
Biorefinery,
Digitalization,
GeneticEngineering, Regenerative
agriculture
100% recycling
Industrial symbiosis
80% plastic from biomass
Closed cycle animalproduction
100% circularity of
agri-foodprocesses
Transition 2: Full circularity of foodsystems
Game changers TargetsSDGs
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Life on land and below water,
climate, health and wellbeing
Agroecology,
Digitalization,
Molecular biology
New business models
Restoration of ecosystems, crop
diversity,
dietary diversity,
food systemdiversity
Reversingdiversity
degradationtrend
Transition 3: Reversing diversitydegradation trend
Game changers TargetsSDGs
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• 1980-2000: resistance
• 2000-2010: niches of innovation
• 2010-2020: system innovation
• 2020 - ?
What is the role of OrganicFarming?
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CIRCULARITY REGENERATIVE AGRICULTURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES
FUNCTIONAL AND RESPONSE DIVERSITY
RESILIENCE
Ecological challenges
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BUSINESS MODELS FROM VALUE CHAINS TO FOOD
SYSTEMS
DATA ECONOMIES ETHICS AND ACCOUNTABILITY
RESILIENCE
Economic challenges
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Thanks for your
attention!
Gianluca Brunori