a roadmap to commercialization - university of san diegocatcher.sandiego.edu/items/usd/2roadmap usd...
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A Roadmap to Commercialization: Meeting Investor Needs With Discovery & Validation
Martin Kleckner III PhD MBAUniversity of San Diego, the Brink SBDC
October 18, 2018
©MKleckner - 2018
Disrupting
OldHabits
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Winning SBIR & STTR Grants: The Basics
SBIR & STTR Grant – Phase II (Beyond the Basics)
Funding Your Innovation
Roadmap to Commercialization (Investor Needs)
4th in a Four-Part Series
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 1
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1) National Science Foundation I-Corps Adjunct Faculty
2) Six Launches; Two Exits
▪ RegeneMed
▪ InSilicoMed
▪ SpyFinder (Sold)
▪ Sal-Flex (Sold)
▪ + RefluxMD, Blast Resolve
3) Also: Not-For-Profit 501 (c) 3 –Venture Philanthropy
4) SBIR/STTR: NSF, NIH, DoD, DOE, Coulter, Drexel; University of California
5) Times Mirror, American Healthcare Systems, General Electric, Roche Diagnostics, Toshiba America Medical Systems
6) $44.3 MM in Capital & Grants 2016 –Q3 2018
Where I’m Coming From . . .
USC, Caltech, U C Irvine, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, U C
Riverside
I-Corps™ at NIHCarlsbad
Univ. San DiegoSan Diego
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 2
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. . . Where We’re Going
Seed Fund – Accelerator Cohort – Fall 2019National Science Foundation I-Corps
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What is Your
Odyssey?
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 4
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Essential Rules
1. Ask Questions
2. “Jump In”
3. Contribute
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Different Perspectives/Comparable Needs
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SBIR/STTRAgencies
-Customers
(“Early-vangelist”)
-Strategic Partners
-Investors
(Angel Groups, Corporate, Venture
Philanthropy)
Different, but all asking the same
questions©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 7
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“The Great Uncertainty”(followed the Great Recession,
2008, & the dot.com burst, 2000)
Disruptive(or “Discontinuous”)
Innovation orCreative Destruction:
What is unknown may be a barrier
Downsizing,
Unemployment,
M & A,
Intense Competition
Failed Ventures
-
“Power Laws”
-
Makes gaining “Market Traction” a
tough door to go through
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 8
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(1) What is your [Evidence-Based] Business Model?
(2) How was your Model developed?
(3) What Traction have you gained?
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Why I Stopped Investing (And You
Should Never Start)
Tucker Max – August 11, 2015http://observer.com
1) There are not enough good people: “There is a huge number of people starting companies who have no business at all doing (it).”
2) (They cannot actually execute effectively in a start-up environment.)
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We’re turning the industry upside down
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 11
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[Power Laws]: “It’s common to make money from your single best angel investment than all the rest put together. The consequence of this is
that the real risk is missing out on that outstanding investment.”
Sam Altman (March 25, 2013)http://blog.samaltman.com/upside-risk
The Angel (VC) Conundrum
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What Angel Investors Value
Most When Choosing What to Fund
Nicole Torres, Harvard Business Review – August 6, 2015https://hbr.org/2015/08/what-angel-investors-value-most-when-choosing-what-to-fund
Source: Attracting Early Stage Investors: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment Shai Bernstein, Arthur Korteweg, and Kevin Laws (http://web.stanford.edu/~shaib/BernsteinKortewegLaws_052014.pdf)
Angel List Experiment: Three Factors: (1) The Founding Team, (2) Traction, & (3) Existing Lead Investors
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The (Not So) Puzzling Behavior of
Angel Investors¹
1. Angel investing is not necessarily a purely financial exercise
2. Angels “usually develop an emotional attachment to the business venture
3. Motivators: the chance to participate; to be active in the venture; “psychic income”, “for-profit philanthropy”²
1. Darian M. Ibrahim, William & Mary Law School, http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/facpubs/16852. Feld Thoughts, Is it Angel Investing or For-Profit Philanthropy?, http://www.feld.com/blog/archives/002013.html
(Oct. 23, 2006, 18:42 EST).
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Investors Lost Also
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©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 16
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OK, well maybe we do like some disrupters
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People Buy Emotionally, Rationalize After
OPEN-MINDED
NO BUY-IN RE-CONFIRM
C³:Capable
Credible
Concerned
RationalizeJustifyConfirm
Source:The Innovation Group
(www.tigi.net)
It’s very personal
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1) Decisions typically occur in precise, psychological order▪ About you
▪ About your company
▪ About your product or service
▪ About your ask/price
▪ About the time to invest/buy
2) Two Key Issues: (a) Your Integrity, (b) Your Judgment
▪ How well does your product knowledge match your understanding of my needs?
▪ You Will Be Assessed
How DecisionsAre Made
How Well Do You Understand (know) Me?
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 19
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Can Your Dog
Hunt?
[Can You?]
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Start-ups v. Companies
Strategy, Process & Organization
Business Plans v. Models
Business Model Generation
Customer Discovery & Validation
Evidence-Based Pathway
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What We Used To Believe
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Startups are a Smaller Version of a Large Company
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What We Now Know
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 24
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Startups Search
Companies Execute
Memo: Larry Bossidy, Execution – The Discipline of Getting Things Done (2002)“Execution is a systematic way of exposing reality and acting on it.”
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What We Used to Believe
Strategy
Concept/SeedProduct
DevelopmentAlpha/Beta
TestLaunch 1st
Shipment
NEW PRODUCT INTRODUCTION MODEL©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 26
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Customer Problem:Known
Product Features:Known
Waterfall / Product ManagementExecution on Two “Knowns”
Requirements
Design
Implement
Verification
Maintenance
Source: Eric Rieshttp://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com ©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 27
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What We Now Know
It’s a Process(of Discovery & Learning)
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What We Used to Believe
Education
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Entrepreneurial Education was About
Execution
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Entrepreneurial Education Begins with the Search for a
Business Model
What We Now Know
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Putting Search First is a Radical Change
It’s Not Just One More Methodology
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Experiential Immersion
127 Interviews (“Experiments”)
Investors
Want
Evidence
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Start With a Business Plan and Financial Model
What We Used to Believe
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October 20-22, 2014 Los Angeles cohort 36 ©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 35
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No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.
- Helmuth von Moltke¹
No Business Plan survives first contact w/ customers.
- Steve Blank²
(1) 19th-century head of the Prussian army; (2) Stanford & U C Berkeley (I-Corps); (3) Foundry Group, Boulder, CO
We haven’t read a business plan in over twenty years.- Brad Feld/Jason Mendelson³
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Five - Year Plans
Venture Capitalists
Soviet Union
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Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.*
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
* National Defense Executive Reserve Conference, Washington DC, November 14, 1957
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Instead of creating business plans…
Today we discover business models.
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Through Discovery We Engage so that we can develop an understanding of
(their) needs, desires, behaviors,
characteristics, beliefs, influences,
motivations, (dimensions) . . .
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What we Used to Believe
Organizations
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A founder does not run sales, marketing or business
development…
A founder runs a customer development team.
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Organizations
Startups operate as teams, not as hierarchies.
Team Member
Team Member
Mentor
Classical Company
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Companies vs. startups
A company is a business organization that sells a product or service in exchange for revenue & profit.
A startup is a temporary organizationdesigned to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.
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Organizations& Business Models
A company is organized to deliver value via its business model.
A startup organizes itself to discover opportunities and create a business model.
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Startup’s Goal
To become a company!
A startup becomes a company AFTER its customer discovery leads to a repeatable, scalable, and profitable business model.
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 49
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Why Do Start-Ups Fail?
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Fortune.com/2014/09/25/why-startups-fail-according –to-their founders/
Why Do Start-Ups Fail?
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Fortune.com/2014/09/25/why-startups-fail-according –to-their founders/
I-Corps: 100 Interviews in
7 Weeks
Why Do Start-Ups Fail?
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More startups fail from a lack of customers than from a failure of product
development
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Therefore,
Investors, SBIR Reviewers
And Our Customers
Need Us To
DISCOVER & VALIDATE
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Before Trying to Sell . . .. . . Customer Development
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Business Model Generation(Customer Discovery & Validation)
Alexander Osterwalder & Yves Pigneur, Business Model Generation (2010)©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 56
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SLIDE 57 ©MKleckner - 2018
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© 2012 Steve Blank (Steve Blank & Bob Dorf, The Startup Owner’s Manual)
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Pardon Our Disruption!
THE LOGIC OF HOW WE WILL MAKE MONEY
AKA HOW “THEY” WILL PROFIT
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Pardon Our Disruption!
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Pardon Our Disruption!
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 61
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Pardon Our Disruption!
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© 2012 Steve BlankSLIDE 63
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Customer Segments and Customer Types
A Customer Segment is a subset of the marketplace that makes decisions in a defined way.
A Customer Type defines a role within the customer segment.
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Customer Types
•End User
•Influencer*
•Recommender
•Economic Buyer/Payer
•Decision Maker
•Saboteur
End User
Influencer
Recommender
Economic $$
Decision Maker
* Remember William Dawes?
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© 2012 Steve BlankSLIDE 66
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Business Model Generation
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Pardon Our Disruption!
START WITH A BLANK CANVAS
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Launching the Canvas
We begin with Hypotheses
We urgently need Facts
Also known as Educated Guesses
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Pardon Our Disruption!Pardon Our Disruption!
Customer Development Process:1. Here’s what I think (Hypothesis)
2. So, here’s what I did (Experiment)3. What I found out (Discover)
4. So, here’s what I will do next (Test)
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Customer Discovery: Four (Easy?) Steps
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Pardon Our Disruption!Pardon Our Disruption!
GuessGuess
Guess
Guess
Guess
Guess
Guess
Guess
Guess
1. State Your Hypotheses©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 72
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2. Test Your Hypotheses
Identify Customer Problems & Needs
Test hypotheses about CS and VPs…
… Iterate & Pivot
N0 SELLING! EXPLORE & DISCOVER ONLY©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 73
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Pardon Our Disruption!Pardon Our Disruption!
What are your needs?
How do you learn about
new products?
Where (how) do you buy?
What is the solution to your problem worth to you?
Gather Data
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Pardon Our Disruption!Pardon Our Disruption!
Track Your Evolving Model
Audio Middleware Companies
Problem Solving
Refine and improve 3D audio algorithms
Better Performance
3D immersive sound
Higher gaming scores
More realism
Reduced ear fatigue
Pinpoint sounds
Intellectual Property
Proprietary knowledge, brand, patents, trade secrets,
Audio experts, software developers
Personal Assistance and Self-service
Small support staff, emphasize web support
Game Engine Companies
Audio Middleware Companies
SW License, Per Title, Per Seat for Plug-in
IP License Fee to UMD
Software development tools
PC Gamers
PC Game Developers
Note changes from last iteration
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Iterations: Pivot or Proceed
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3. Test Your Potential Solution
Test potential Minimum Viable Product features: Do they satisfy problems or needs?
MVP
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4. Pivot or Proceed
New Guess
FACTNew Guess
FACT
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Pardon Our Disruption!Pardon Our Disruption!
FACTS FACTSFACTS
FACTS
FACTS
FACTS
FACTSFACTS
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 79
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Different customer segments have different needs & may require different Business
Models to serve them.
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Customer Discovery . . .in a Nutshell
We are learning about Customer Needs…
… not asking them to define a product….
… or asking them to buy!
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The Most Important Skill
Your customers have needs . . .
They will be happy to tell you -if you give them
the chance.
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Interviewing Logistics
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▪Interview efficiently –
(Define an Archetype, Persona)
▪Talk to strangers; go with your partner
▪Ask for 10 minutes
▪Be honest with yourself; Listen, don’t talk
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Finding Archetypes
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 85
Professional Societies
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How Do I Make Contact?
▪Target second-rank companies
▪Target mid-level management
▪Email, then call; then email, then call
▪Play the “student” card (No Company; No Product)
▪Cold call? – Research your target
▪Network – get a warm introduction
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Interviewing▪ Make a goal: Test only 1-2 Hypotheses
▪ Group-Meet if possible: Face-to-Face > Skype > phone
▪ NO email interviews or surveys
▪ Focus on Their Pain Points, not yours
▪ Ask Open-Ended Questions
▪ Ask “Why?” (Listen and probe w/ a follow-up)
▪ Ask about current efforts (e. g. to solve the problem)
▪ Embrace bad news; Be humble and Ask for Help.
▪DO NOT SELL!!
▪DON’T TALK ABOUT YOUR TECHNOLOGY!!
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Interview Questions
▪ What are they currently experiencing?
▪ How are they doing things right now?
▪ What do they think about the way things are now?
▪ What would they like to see or do differently?
▪ In an ideal world, how would things be?
▪ Have you tried to “fix” the problem? If so, how?
End User Story: “A Day in the Life”
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Cute Baby?
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The last two questions
▪What haven’t I asked you?
▪Can you suggest another person for me to talk with?
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The Trap
CONFIRMATION BIAS
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Confirmation Bias
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Where may your first customers come from?
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 93
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Using Business Alliances as a Growth Strategy
*Copyright © 2004 Virtual Advisor, Inc. SLIDE 94 ©MKleckner - 2018
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SLIDE 96 ©MKleckner - 2018
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SLIDE 96 ©MKleckner - 2018
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Increased Cash
Keep Up w/ Market
Viable Solution
Fend off Competitor
Market Share
Cost
-
Duration Varies
DisneylandCoca-Cola, Eastman Kodak
Wal-MartBristol Myers
KFC, Taco Bell, GrubHub
One World, Star Alliance
Paramount Pictures 20th Century Fox
(Titanic)
AT & T, MCILegislation, Regulatory Affairs
Sales, Distribution
Production, Manufacturing
Co-Branding
Why?
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FINANCIAL
OPERATIONS
PERSONNEL
MARKET PRESENCE
-BRAND
PRODUCT/SERVICE QUALITY
CULTURE
CUSTOMER RELATIONS
-SERVICE/SUPPORT
Examine Closely
MARKETING: BUDGET, PEOPLE
DESIRE, DRIVE
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Do I Fully Understand . . .
1) Financial Situation (Cash Flow, Balance Sheet)
2) Annual Revenue
3) Annual Growth
4) How the company is organized
5) Their experience and backgrounds
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. . . And their
6) Market Presence
7) Their Markets (Beachhead, Niche, Brands)
8) Growth Opportunities
9) Quality Standards, Controls, Values
10) Customer (Archetypes), Feedback
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. . . Plus
11) Customer Relationships, Complaint Management
12) Marketing Process, Tactics
13) Prior Deals (with others)-
Do you approve how they sell and develop their
market(s); do they have the funds and personnel to
handle this alliance; do they share your enthusiasm?SLIDE 101 ©MKleckner - 2018
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The Deal that you propose . . .
OPEN-MINDED
NO BUY-IN RE-CONFIRM
C³:Capable
Credible
Concerned
RationalizeJustifyConfirm. . . benefits
them as much as it does you
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Preparation Checklist
• Very Clear: Business Opportunity at Hand; Value Proposition
• Financial Resources & Responsibilities
• Specific Steps to get Alliance (Ops, Mktg, Sales) Moving
• Technology, Service: Specific Steps
• Who Supplies What People
• Long-Term Commitment v. Specific Product/Service
• Possible Future Products, ServicesSLIDE 103 ©MKleckner - 2018
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Investors are interested in this
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 104
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Why do our Stories Matter?
Brain Science: Insula
Cortisol (Stress)
Oxytocin (Connection/Empathy)
Dopamine (Hope/Optimism)
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 105
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Why Do Stories Matter?
How important are those customer interviews?
Climax
Tension Rises
Tension Falls
Exposition Denouement
Used by:Aristotle, Homer, Chaucer, Tolkien, CS Lewis, “Star Wars”, Disney, Budweiser …
OsirisPrometheus
BuddhaMosesJesus
Luke SkywalkerWoody
Budweiser Puppy
©MKleckner - 2018SLIDE 106
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108
I-Corps
Behind Every Great Product is a Great Story
The Start-Up Curve!
(starring Us)
©MKleckner - 2018
Source: Paul Graham, Y Combinator
SLIDE 107
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Get Out of the Building! Discover, Validate, Build!
Martin Kleckner III PhD MBAUniversity of San Diego, the Brink SBDC(619) 892-2565 • [email protected]