a review and considerations presentation outline · dejong and fawcett 1981 value-expectancy model...

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Dr. Lori M. Hunter

Associate Professor of Sociology and Environmental Studies, CU-Boulder

Prepared for CUPC Environmental Demography Short Course, July 2008

Population and Environment Scholarship:

A Review and Considerations

for the Future

Presentation Outline

• Background

• Links to “Classic” Theory

• Recent Advancements and

Research Examples

• Future Considerations

• Conclusions


• Background



Research Examples

• Future considerations

• Conclusions

Environmental Demography

• Integration of environmental

context into scholarly

examination of demographic

dynamics

• Disclaimer: My lens is one of a

Sociologist-Demographer

– Important to bring this body of

literature to other relevant

disciplines …

Environmental Demography

• Tackles many topics and

takes many forms ...

Population Size/Density

2

Population

– Size/Change

– Households

– Density

Environment

– Household

decisions

regarding land

use (crop

production)

Fertility

Environment

– Natural

resource

dependence

Population

– Fertility

preferences

– Reproductive

behavior

Mortality

Population

– Mortality as

shaped by

HIV/AIDS

pandemic

Environment

– Land tenure

institutions

– Household

decisions regarding

land use

Migration

3

Environment

– Rainfall

Population

– Household

decisions regarding

out-migration

PopulationEnvironment

Mediating

Factors

Science &

Technology

Culture

Policy

Environmental

Demography

• Interdisciplinary social science: Sociology, Human

Geography, Economics, Anthropology

• Yet given additional focus on environmental context,

often collaborate with natural scientists –

ecologists, remote sensing experts, etc.

As a “sub-discipline”

within Demography …

• Not entrenched or well-

recognized;

• A decade ago ….

….1998 PAA Presidential Address

4

Pebley’s Central

Arguments

• Malthus’ legacy?

– Taken for granted that pop growth

impacts environment?

• Central causes of env decline NOT

demographic, therefore

inappropriate areas of study?

• Difficulties inherent in

interdisciplinarity

• Data access difficulties




recognized;

• Small handful of sessions

devoted to topic in annual

meetings;

Recent History

• PAA 1992:

– 1 session: “Demography and the Environment”

• PAA 1995:

– 4 sessions:

• Developing a conceptual framework for p & e

• Human ecology

• Land use, population and environment

• Water, population and environment

• PAA 2004:

– 4 sessions

• Land use, land cover change, demographic processes

• Population, environment, and health

• Population, development, and the urban environment

• Population, water resources, health and development

• PAA 2008

– 4 sessions

• Health and Environment

• Population and Environment: Making use of secondary data sources

• Population, Development and Natural Resources

• Many sessions on Hurricane Katrina




recognized;



meetings;

• Few publications in core

journal, Demography, since

2000.

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recognized;



meetings;

• Few publications in core

journal, Demography, since

2000.

Don

’

t be discouraged

---

we

’

re at the cutting edge !

And we find “like minds” among many

scholars that probably wouldn’t

self-identify as demographers


• Background



Research Examples


• Conclusions


• Background



Research Examples


• Conclusions

Where’s the theory?


Mediating

Factors

Science &

Technology

Culture

Policy

Lack detail

Lack directionality

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Links to “Classic” Theory

• Boserup (1965+)

• Ester Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth:

The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population

Pressure. 1965.

• Contrast with Malthus – “positive checks”

Population

– Size/Change

Density

Environment

– Agricultural

intensification


• Boserup

– Bilsborrow and colleagues

• Human Ecology: POET, IPAT

P O

E T

P O

E T

www.stirpat.org

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• Boserup



• Specific to migration:

– Wolpert

– Zelinsky

– V-E model

– Speare

Table 1: Classic Migration Theories and the Potential Placement of Environmental Hazards

Petersen 1958 General Typology of Migration

“A General Typology of Migration.” American Sociological Review. 23: 256-266.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As ecological "push" factor yielding migration as an "innovative" response.

Wolpert 1966 Stress-Threshold Model

Key citation: “Migration as an Adjustment to Environmental Stress.” Journal of Social Issues. 22, 4:92-102.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As "stressors"

Zelinsky 1971 Mobility Transition Hypothesis

Key citation: “The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition.” Geographical Review. 61:219-249.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As related to

"personal preferences."

Speare 1974 Residential Mobility Decision-Making Model

Key citation: “Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility.” Demography 11, 2:173-188.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As "locational characteristics"

Various contributors Neo-Classical Migration Models

Summary: DaVanzo, J. 1981. "Microeconomic Approaches to Studying Migration Decisions." in De Jong, G.F. and R.W.Gardner (Editors),

Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. pp. 90-129. New York: Pergamon Press.

Example: Harris, J.R. and M.P. Todaro. 1970. "Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis." American Economic Review. 70: 126-142.

Example: Graves, P.E. 1983. “Migration with a Composite Amenity: The Role of Rents.” Journal of Regional Science , 23(4): 541-546.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a "location-specific disamenity."

DeJong and Fawcett 1981 Value-Expectancy Model

Key citation: “Multidisciplinary frameworks and models of migration decision making” in De Jong, G.F. and R.W.Gardner (Editors),

Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. pp. 13-58. New York: Pergamon Press.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a personal value/goal of

"comfort."

Gardner 1981 Macro-Micro Decision-Making Model

“Macrolevel Influences on the Migration Decision Process” Chapter 3 (pp. 59-89) in G.F. De Jong and R.W.Gardner (Editors),

Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. New York: Pergamon Press.

Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a locational characteristic in conflict with "what people value."


• Boserup



• Specific to migration:

– Wolpert

– Zelinsky

– V-E model

– Speare

Questions remain ….

…. as to the ability to generalize, generate theory.


Mediating

Factors

Science &

Technology

Culture

Policy

But interesting advances (e.g.,

Bilsborrow

’

s work), and frameworks

are always useful!


• Background



Research Examples


• Conclusions

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Methodological Advancements

Argue that P-E is distinct field

of study:

1) Critical mass of scholars;

2) Joint research questions;

3) Emerging body of

methodologies.

Futures/Spatial Models

Population Research and Policy Review, 2003

Land Use Change

1990s

1970s

Image Source: GIS at UICU

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1970s 1990s

Change

Probability of Development

Logistic regression model estimating change in

development,1970s-1990s, as function of:

proximity to existing development;

percentage of surrounding cells developed;

presence within city boundary;

distance to primary road;

distance to secondary road;

slope.

Probability of Development

Population Projections:

Nearly 1 million increase, 1990-2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Based on State of

California, county-level

projections.

Assume linear increase

in proportion county

population located within

study region.

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Model-based Scenarios:

“Trend”

trends, existing regulation

“what if ?”;

demonstrate implications of land use decisions:

– zoning changes;

– new roads;

– land swaps.

Planning-based Scenarios

“Trend”

vs.

“New Roads”

Biophysical focus:

habitat lost as measured by

species richness

T&E

endemic

Assessment and Evaluation

T&E

Habitat

T&E conflict across

demographic scenarios

Population Projections,

Current Pop Density

Population Projections,

High Pop Density

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Endemic

conflict

http://www.csis.msu.edu/home.htm

http://www.indiana.edu/~cipec/

Research Examples

Fertility Mortality Migration

•Carr, Pan and Bilsborrow 2007

•Ghirimire and Hoelter 2007

•Yabiku 2006

•Biddlecom, Axinn and Barber 2005

•Barberi, Carr, Bilsborrow 2008

•Henry et al. 2004

•Frank and Unruh 2008

•Hunter, Twine, and Patterson 2007

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Fertility

Nepal, availability of ag land + assoc with marriage rates.

Nepal, availability of ag land + assoc with first births

Nepal, dependence on local resources + assoc with family size pr eference

Mortality

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South Africa, mortality -impacted HHs + likely to depend on natural resources

Migration

Research Examples


•Pan and Bilsborrow 2005

•Van Wey, Altona, and Brondizio 2007

•Many Entwisle et al. publications

Land Use Change

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Research Examples


Land Use Change

Social-Environmental Stratification

•Anderton et al. 1994

•Davidson and Anderton 2000

•Mohai and Saha 2006

•Many Downey et al. publications

Overall …..

• In 2002, Lutz et al. stated there were “several hundred P-E

studies published in the formal literature … [although] it is hard

to come up with a precise figure because the bounds of the field

are fuzzy and one must largely rely on self-identification of the

authors.”

• Grown in past 5 years, in numbers and sophistication.

– Good news but range of questions, methods and settings complicates

development of comprehensive understanding.

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• Background



Research Examples


• Conclusions

• Informed by:

– Desire for strategic advancement in field;

• Substantively, theoretically, methodologically

– Desire for intellectual community although

broadened impact;

– Desire for scholarship of social relevance.

Considerations for Future

• Engage other relevant audiences while

cultivating connections within demographic

community;

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/

.. Including the “applied”

community which can provide

excellent entrée to important

study sites …

“PHE” Program Example:

Gilutongan Island, Philippines

• Population pressure (TFR ~3.5)

• No health services

• Environmental degradation

– land and sea

• Integrated Intervention

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Philippines

Madagascar

Kenya

Tanzania

DR Congo

Cambodia

Nepal

Rwanda

Uganda

USAID-Supported “PHE” Projects

• Engage as a community of scholars and

practitioners through PERN;

http://www.populationenvironmentresearch.org/

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• Publish in “mainstream” disciplinary-specific

journals, while supporting interdisciplinary

outlets

– Population and Environment

• Consider course offerings in order to train on

topics and methods;

• Be strategic about remaining research

questions ….

Many remain !

Especially in areas of

resource scarcity

On Fertility:

On Morbidity / Mortality

On Migration:

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On Household Life Cycle:

This work is needed …..

Pebley (1998):

“By absenting ourselves from scientific and

popular debates on population and environment

in recent years, we have allowed simplistic

approaches to flourish without the criticism or

insight that could be provided by the results of

demographic insight.”

• Indeed, people and programs need our science

…… let’s get going!


• Background



Research Examples


• Conclusions

Dr. Lori M. Hunter

Associate Professor of Sociology and Environmental Studies, CU-Boulder

Prepared for CUPC Environmental Demography Short Course, July 2008

Population and Environment Scholarship:

A Review and Considerations

for the Future

a review and considerations presentation outline · dejong and fawcett 1981 value-expectancy model...

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