a resource base and climate change risk maps for awash...

PHE-ETHIOPIA CONSORTIUM

A Resource Base and Climate Change Risk Maps for Awash National Park

Tezera Chernet

ERCAND Consult

2015, Addis Ababa

Financed by the SCIP Fund: the SCIP Fund is financed by the Governments of the United Kingdom (UK), Norway and Denmark.

Table of Contents

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Table of Contents

ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................... VI

ACKNOWLEDGM ENTS ............................................................................................................................. VII

EXECUTIVE SUMM ARY .......................................................................................................................... VIII

1. OVERVIEW OF AWASH NATIONAL PARK ...................................................................................................... 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OBJECTIVE........................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. THE STUDY AREAS ............................................................................................................................................. 2

1.3.1 Location ................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3.2 Topography ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.3 Soil ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.4 Water Resources and drainage ............................................................................................................. 4 1.3.5 Brief History of the Awash National park .............................................................................................. 4

2. LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION ..................................................................................................................... 6

2.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Data set ................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 Preprocessing of Images ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Image Classification for land use and land cover mapping ................................................................... 6 2.1.5 Land cover change detection ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.6 Identification of change drivers ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1.7 Materials and tools ............................................................................................................................... 7

2.2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Present Vegetation types ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Description of present land cover ......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Land use / cover changes .................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.4 Drivers of Land cover Change .............................................................................................................. 12

3. WILD ANIMALS HABITAT MAPPING ........................................................................................................... 13

3.1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Habitat assessment and mapping ....................................................................................................... 13

3.2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Bio-Diversity of Awash National Park ................................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 Trends in Number of Wild-animal Population ..................................................................................... 16 3.2.3 Habitat Fragmentation ....................................................................................................................... 18

3.2.3.1 Deforestation and Degradation ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.3.1.1 Expansion of Cultivated Land ................................................................................................................ 18 3.2.3.1.2 Competition from Grazing by Domestic Animals ................................................................................... 19 3.2.3.1.3 Collection of Fuel and construction wood ............................................................................................. 19

3.2.3.2 Infrastructure development .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.3.3 Impacts of Fragmentation ............................................................................................................................. 20

3.2.4 Other Pressures ................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4.1 Road Kill ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4.2 Alien Invasive Species .................................................................................................................................... 22

4. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK PROFILES ............................................................................................................... 23

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4.1 OBJECTIVE...................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 23

4.2.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................................. 23

4.2.2.1 Fire hazard Assessment ................................................................................................................................. 24 4.2.2.2 Drought hazard Assessment .......................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.2.3 Flood hazard Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 27

4.2.3 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 28 4.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 28

4.3.1 Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 28 4.3.1.1 The Present Climate of ANP .......................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.1.2 The Future Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 30

4.3.2 Hazards Assessment ............................................................................................................................ 30 4.3.2.1 Fire Hazard .................................................................................................................................................... 30

4.3.2.1.1 Fire Frequency ....................................................................................................................................... 30 4.3.2.1.2. Fire Prone Areas .................................................................................................................................... 34

4.3.2.2 Drought Hazard ............................................................................................................................................. 34 4.3.2.3 Flood Hazard ................................................................................................................................................. 35

4.3.2.3.1 Flood Prone Areas .................................................................................................................................. 35 4.3.2.3.2 Flood Frequency ..................................................................................................................................... 36 4.3.2.3.3 Beseka Lake Level .................................................................................................................................. 38

4.3.3 Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................................... 40 4.3.4 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 40

4.3.4.1 Fire Risk ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 4.3.4.2 Drought Risk .................................................................................................................................................. 41 4.3.4.3 Flood Risk ...................................................................................................................................................... 42

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................. 44

5.1. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 44 5.2. RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 45

6. REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................... 47

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List of Tables

TABLE 1: AREA SIZES OF LAND COVER TYPES ..................................................................................................................... 9 TABLE 2: POPULATION SUPPORT CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR FENTALE WOREDA (SOURCE: WBISPP) .............................................. 18 TABLE 3: VARIABLES AND WEIGHT FACTOR USED IN FIRE HAZARD MAPPING ........................................................................... 26 TABLE 4: FACTORS USED IN FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................. 27

List of Figures

FIGURE 1: LOCATION MAP OF THE STUDY AREAS ................................................................................................................ 3 FIGURE 2: PROFILE GRAPH: BESEKA LAKE - TOP OF FENTALE MOUNTAIN – HOT SPRING AT ANP ................................................. 3 FIGURE 3: PRESENT LAND USE / COVER MAP OF ANP ......................................................................................................... 8 FIGURE 4: LAND USE / LAND COVER CLASS CHANGE BETWEEN 1973 AND 2014 AT ANP ......................................................... 12 FIGURE 5: CHANGE IN NUMBER OF SPECIES FOR SOME WILD ANIMALS OCCURRING IN ANP BETWEEN 2008 AND 2010 ................ 16 FIGURE 6: MAP DEPICTING THE PRESENT DISTRIBUTIONS OF SOME WILD ANIMALS AT ANP...................................................... 17 FIGURE 7: FREQUENT ROAD KILL AREAS BY SPECIES TYPE AT ANP ........................................................................................ 21 FIGURE 8: CROSS SECTION VIEW OF ROAD CROSSING ANP ................................................................................................. 21 FIGURE 9: MAPS OF WEIGHTED VARIABLES ..................................................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 10: MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL: METHARA. ........................................................................................................ 28 FIGURE 11: MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE: METHARA. ................................................................................................. 29 FIGURE 12: THERMAL ZONES ....................................................................................................................................... 29 FIGURE 13: NUMBER OF FIRES OBSERVED BY YEAR AT AWASH NATIONAL PARK ..................................................................... 30 FIGURE 14: NUMBER OF FIRES OBSERVED BY MONTH AT AWASH NATIONAL PARK.................................................................. 31 FIGURE 15: NUMBER OF FIRES OBSERVED AT AWASH NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY MONTH ............................. 31 FIGURE 16: DISTRIBUTION OF FIRE POINTS IN THE KAS SURROUNDING ANP ......................................................................... 32 FIGURE 17: NUMBER OF FIRES OBSERVED PER YEAR AT AWASH NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS ............................... 32 FIGURE 18: LOCATION OF FIRE PIXELS IN ANP AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS ...................................................................... 33 FIGURE 19: ANP - FIRE HAZARD MAP .......................................................................................................................... 34 FIGURE 20: COMPARISON OF NDVI IMAGES OVER ANP (NORTH EASTERN PART OF IMAGE) AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR 2003 (A)

AND 2008 (B) ................................................................................................................................................. 35 FIGURE 21: FLOOD PRONE AREAS ................................................................................................................................ 36 FIGURE 22: MEAN ANNUAL FLOW OF AWASH RIVER AT METHARA ..................................................................................... 37 FIGURE 23: MONTHLY FLOW OF AWASH RIVER AT METHARA GAUGING STATION (1982-2009) .............................................. 37 FIGURE 24: LOG PEARSON TYPE III ANALYSIS (USING AVERAGE DAILY MAXIMUM FLOW VALUES) FOR AWASH RIVER AT METHARA

STATION.......................................................................................................................................................... 38 FIGURE 25: WATER LEVEL OF BESEKA LAKE BETWEEN 2009 AND 2013 ............................................................................... 38 FIGURE 26: FIRE RISK MAP OF ANP ............................................................................................................................. 41 FIGURE 27: FLOOD RISK MAP OF ANP ........................................................................................................................... 42

List of Plates

PLATE 1: THICKET AT ANP ............................................................................................................................................ 9 PLATE 2: BUSH LAND (A) AND GRASSLAND (B) AT ANP .................................................................................................... 10 PLATE 3: GRASSLAND WITH TREES AT ANP .................................................................................................................... 10

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PLATE 4: GRASSLAND WITH SHRUBS AT ANP .................................................................................................................. 10 PLATE 5: RIVERINE FOREST AT ANP .............................................................................................................................. 11 PLATE 6: DOUM PALM AT ANP ................................................................................................................................... 11 PLATE 7: DIK-DIK AT ANP .......................................................................................................................................... 14 PLATE 8: SOEMMERING’S GAZELLE AT ANP .................................................................................................................... 14 PLATE 10: BIRDS AT ANP ........................................................................................................................................... 15 PLATE 9: HAMADRYAS BABOONS AT ANP ...................................................................................................................... 15 PLATE 11: GOAT AND SHEEP HERDS NEARBY ILALA-SALA PLAIN AT ANP ............................................................................... 19 PLATE 12: PART OF ADDIS-DJIBOUTI RAIL-WAY UNDER CONSTRUCTION AT ANP ................................................................... 20 PLATE 13: COMPARISON OF IMAGES OVER BESEKA LAKE (FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: 1973, 1986, 1998 AND 2014) ....................... 39 PLATE 14: NORTHERN PART OF LAKE BESEKA (AT THE BACKGROUND IS FENTALE MOUNTAIN) .................................................. 39

List of Annexes

ANNEX 1: LIST OF WILD ANIMALS AT AWASH NATIONAL PARK LISTED IN THE IUCN RED LIST .................................................... 49 ANNEX 2: NUMBER OF DOMESTIC ANIMALS AT KAS SURROUNDING AWASH NATIONAL PARK ................................................... 50 ANNEX 3: COMPARISON OF NO. OF LIVESTOCK IN FENTALE WOREDA BETWEEN 2008/09 AND 2013/14K ................................ 51

Acronyms

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Acronyms

ANP Awash National Park

ASTER Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

CSA Central Statistics Agency

DEM Digital Elevation Model

EMA Ethiopian Mapping Agency

EWCA Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority

FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

FIRMS Fire Information for Resource Management System

GCP Ground Control Point

GIS Geographical Information System

GPS Global Positioning System

HH House hold

KA Kebele Administration

LUPRD Land-use Planning and Regulatory Department

m.a.s.l. meters above sea level

MoARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer

MSS Multi-Spectral Scanner

NMSA National Meteorological Service Agency

PA Protected Area

PHE Population, Health and Environment

SCIP Strategic Climate Institutions Program

SDPASE Sustainable development of the protected area system of Ethiopia

TM Thematic Mapper

UTM Universal Transverse Mercator

WBISPP Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project

WGS World Geodetic System

Acknowledgment

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Acknowledgments

This study was financed by the SCIP Project and the author would like to thank PHE-Ethiopia

Consortium management and staff for providing the opportunities and facilitating the

logistic support to conduct the study. The author appreciates and thanks Ato Tadesse Hailu,

project coordinator and Mr. Adrian Young, Environmental Program officer at PHE-Ethiopia,

for their valuable advice to improve the document. Thanks are also due to EWCA for

permission to work and support in acquisition of data on the management plan of the park.

Awash National Park Office and the management were also very supportive in facilitating

the field work within the Protected Area; Ato Mamo Alemu and Ato Zerihun Ketema,

wildlife experts at Awash National Park have also helped in the acquisition of ground data,

provision of valuable description of habitats and wild animals frequenting it and arranging

consultative meetings with sector Offices.

Due appreciation also goes to the Department of Hydrology and GIS Section under the

Ministry of Water and Energy for their prompt provision of data on discharge and water

level and spatial data produced under the Awash basin studie. We acknowledge the use of

FIRMS data and imagery from the Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS

(LANCE) system operated by the NASA/GSFC/Earth Science Data and Information System

(ESDIS) with funding provided by NASA/HQ. Gratitude is also due to Ato Arega Mekonen,

SDPASE-GIZ national project coordinator, for provision of spatial data on Awash National

Park.

The author is very grateful to Ato Kidane Mengistu, General Manager, ERCAND Consult, Dr.

Shiferaw Alem and Yehuala S. for support and providing comments on the draft document.

Thanks are also due to Ato Temsgen Yohannes in the vegetation survey and Ato Hailu for

assistance during the field work. Special thanks also goes to park scouts for assistance in

vegetation survey and providing valuable information on habitats, staff members of Woreda

Agricultural Offices in the administration of household level questionnaire and farm

households at the KAs who have spent their precious time for providing responses.

Executive Summary

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Executive Summary

This study presents the resource bases at Awash National Park (ANP) and examines future

exposure to identified climate change impacts. The methodology used includes analysis of

Landsat images to delineate the vegetation units and describe time-series land cover

changes. Locations of wild animals inhabiting the park were also mapped based on field

observation, documented data and discussions with key informants. Further, using basic

climatic, historical river flow and lake level data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Normalized

Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and FIRMS hot spots data analysis were made to

evaluate exposure to hazards.

Comparison of time series Landsat image over a period of 40 years on Awash national park

showed that there is a reduction in size of the grassland units with most of the gain for

grassland with shrub. A major driver of change at ANP was competition for grazing by

domestic animals.

Fire, proneness to drought, river flooding and lake level rise were the types of hazards faced

by the protected area. An occurrence of fire hazard within the protected area was of

anthropogenic origin. Most fire prone areas were also located in or adjoining areas where

such activities are permitted.

Fire risk assessment shows that 64.28% of ANP area was found in high fire risk areas and

30.60% under moderate fire risk areas. An estimated 90% of land cover units whose major

component is the grassland, namely, the grassland, grass with trees and grass with shrub,

fall under high fire risk area. Likewise, about 24% and 73% of thicket and bush lands are

found in areas categorized as high and moderate fire risk areas respectively. Analysis of the

flood risk reveals that, of the 14.6 percent of the park area susceptible to flooding, 3.27

percent had a very high and 17.17% a high risk of flooding. 3.25 percent of land cover

classes in which the major component is the grassland, and a proportionate percent of

thicket and bush lands fall under very high flood risk area. Findings will help strengthen

efforts in appraisal of natural resources toward meeting challenges of climate change.

Section 1: Overview

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1. Overview of Awash National Park

1.1 Introduction

Toward meeting the multiple needs of communities while building resilience to future

development and climate change, the core interventions of Population, Health and

Environment Ethiopia Consortium (PHEEC) programs focus in situation where demographic

trends put pressure on the environment and where natural resources degraded threaten

human health and livelihoods (PHEEC, 2012).

Ethiopia is known to possess some 284 wild mammal, 861 bird, 201 reptile, 63 amphibian,

188 fish and 1225 arthropod species with about 10, 2, 5, 54, 0.6 and 21 per cent of

endemism, respectively (IBC, 2009). Protected areas have significant value in the

conservation and development of these resources. The Ethiopian government, in

recognition of these, has put in place conservation mechanisms in a bid to protect wild

animals from various disasters (FDRE, 2005). The wildlife conservation areas of the country

are estimated to cover 158,200 km2 or about 14% of the country size.

Despite the efforts made to conserve and develop the protected areas, there had been

different pressures and mostly were of human origin. Furthermore, these are now

exacerbated by climate change; the extent and degree in which climate change affects local

level Protected Areas (PAs) are also little known. Awash National Park (ANP) was one of the

first two national park gazetted in the country. In the past forty years since establishment,

however, there are still a number of constraints that hinder the expected progress.

Accordingly, understanding the nature and characteristics of the existing resources, trends

in the past forty years, and the pressures now faced along with its exposure to climate

change related stresses, shall help in developing mechanisms to protect and develop the

resources.

Section 1: Overview


The first chapter of this paper provides the background and objective of the study and

describes the study area. Chapter two explains the present land cover and examines the

historical trends of land use and cover change. Chapter three discusses the habitat type and

distribution within the park including habitat fragmentation and make reviews of pressures

faced. Chapter four focuses on hazards related with climate change and is followed by the

final chapter, which presents the conclusion and recommendations.

1.2 Objective

The general objective of this study was to assess the biological resource potential and values

of the Awash and develop resource as well as climate risk maps.

The specific objectives of this study were:

a. to assess and develop baseline data for the terrestrial biological resources of Awash

National park;

b. to assess the biological resources present in the national park and their location in

order to enable them to be conserved appropriately;

c. to provide information for decision makers and justify the conservation and

protection of the park ecosystems as a mechanism to eradicate poverty and mitigate

and adapt to climate change; and

d. to create climate change risk profiles that cover all the major hazards (floods,

droughts, forest fires, landslides etc.) prevailing in and around Awash National Park.

1.3. The study areas

1.3.1 Location

Awash National park, is found some 220 Km East of Addis Ababa in the Awash basin, part of

the Great Rift, between 8o40' and 9o9' North and 39o50' to 40o10' East (Figure 1).

Administratively, it is located between the Afar and Oromia Regional states. Two districts

from the former in the east and north east and four districts from the latter in the North-

west, west and south bound the national park.

Section 1: Overview


Figure 1: Location map of the study areas

1.3.2 Topography

Altitudinal variations in ANP range between 740 near the hot spring to 1820 m.a.s.l at top of

Mt. Fentale. Lake Basaka lies to the southwest of the park; some 3.6 kms from the park

boundary towards north and some 10 Kms towards east (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Profile graph: Beseka lake - top of Fentale Mountain – Hot spring at ANP

Section 1: Overview


80% of the Awash national park area has slopes lower than 5 degrees, while the remaining

area, particularly at Mt. Fentale and a nearby hill, has varying slopes; up to 70 degrees in

certain places.

1.3.3 Soil

Based on the study made by FAO/LUPRD (1982), the dominant soil types found in the ANP

are Lithic leptosols (36%), Eutric cambisols (35%) and Vertic cambisols (28%) with small

occurrence of Eutric leptosols (1%).

1.3.4 Water Resources and drainage

Awash river passes in the south and south east part of the national park and forms part of

the boundary between East Hararghe and Arsi zones of Oromia Region. The river makes a

water fall, south of Gotu camp, before entering the gorges. Hot spring is also found at the

far northern part of the park. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists found around the park use

the water to drink their animals. Two other man-made watering points are located within

the park designed in the early days of the park to drink wild animals.

1.3.5 Brief History of the Awash National park

Awash National park, was gazetted in 1969. With respect to its area size, the ANP previously

had an area of 760 km2, but since 2002 it was reduced to 598 Km2.

It is believed that ANP is a haven for more than 78 mammals, including the Near threatened

species like Beisa Oryx (Oryx beisa) and lesser kudu (Tragelaphus imberbis), and of more

than 472 bird species, including six endemic (Yirmed and Girum, 2013).

An effort had been made to introduce some species such as Ostrich (Struthio camelus) and

Swayne’s hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) to the national park in the mid

1970's. In the recent past, the park was Ostrich’s natural habitat, however, when the

number declined and was on the verge of diminishing, reintroduction, including ostrich eggs

from Alegedhi, had been made. Despite these, the population declined and the only

remaining ostrich was killed by vehicle collision in 1995. At the same time, some 60

Swayne’s hartebeests had also been introduced to the park from Senkele sanctuary;

however, the effort had been unsuccessful as it survived only to the late 1990s. Similarly,

Section 1: Overview


wild animals such as Bush duiker (Sylvicapra grimmia), African hunting dog (Lycaoii pictiis),

buffalo (Syncerus caffer), Grevy’s zebra (Equus grevyi), black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

and African elephant (Loxodonta Africana) had once inhabited this national park.

Tourists that have visited ANP in 2013/14 were 11,843. During the same time period, the

tourism industry has generated 1.2 million ETB (of which 64,000 ETB is from penalties paid

by trespassers).

Section 2: Land Cover Classifications


2. Land Cover Classification

2.1 Methodology

2.1.1 Data set

Data that characterize the protected areas and influence the fauna and flora existing within

it are acquired and/or generated to form the individual layers for use in GIS analysis. These

include raster and vector data, and other available historical survey and map data from local

institutions and on-line databases.

Landsat images acquired between mid 1970’s and 2014 are used to estimate the geographic

extent, distribution and types of land cover changes in the two national park and their

immediate surroundings. Overall eight cloud free scenes, from sensors including L8, TM and

MSS, and taken between December and early January were used in the study.

2.1.2 Preprocessing of Images

The image scenes received were geo-referenced using GCP and the required atmospheric

corrections were applied. Further, images were stacked, mosaicking and sub-setting to the

area of interest done for proper investigation of land cover changes.

2.1.3 Image Classification for land use and land cover mapping

A preliminary land use land cover map (through unsupervised classification) was generated

to help guide the field work. Data collection formats were also developed for vegetation

survey and the collection of information on wild animals.

The sampling design employed was stratified sampling. Adequate and representative

ground data were collected from selected observation plots in December, 2014. At each

plot, the species composition, percent cover of the different cover types, life-forms, and

other relevant characteristic and information were recorded on prepaed formats along with

GPS location data.

Maximum Likelihood classification technique, which assumes that the statistics for each

class in each band are normally distributed, was employed to classify the satellite images.



Post-classification change detection method was employed to determine magnitude of

change. To validate classification, reference data were collected separately and the

associated statistics were generated.

2.1.5 Land cover change detection

Landsat images, acquired between early 1970’s and 2014, at an interval of 12 years, were

analyzed to estimate the geographic extent, distribution and types of land cover changes in

the protected areas. The time span selected between series of layers was determined based

on availability of cloud free data and preferred season.

Historical maps and data, depicting vegetation types and distribution, were used to identify

cover units. These include studies made by LUPRD, WBISPP, Awash Basin Study and aerial

photographs.

2.1.6 Identification of change drivers

Local level data on proximate factors was collected from sampled households of selected

Kebele administrations that adjoin the national park, through discussions with key

informants and on site observations. Questionnaires were administered at household level

by individuals who have a good knowledge of the locality and its culture. A total of 31 HH

were selected randomly from four KAs to conduct the survey. Furthermore, basic

information such as population census, stock density and other available relevant

documents and reports were collected from CSA and adjoining woreda administration and

reviewed.

2.1.7 Materials and tools

ENVI 4.3 was used in the processing, analysis and display of raster data. Further more,

ArcGIS had also been used for manipulation, editing and viewing of geographic and tabular

data. SPSS was used for the analysis, conversion and presentation of collected HH data.

Garmin 12 GPS and silva-compass were used for identification of waypoints (locate ground

control points), registration of geographical coordinates in the description of land cover

units and marking of training areas for signature definition, during the field survey.

Furthermore, binoculars were used in habitat assessments, desktop and notebook

computers were also used for entry, processing and analysis of different input data.



2.2. Results and Discussion

2.2.1 Present Vegetation types

Based on classification of Landsat images, eight different land use / cover classes were

identified in ANP (Fig. 3). Grassland with scattered shrubs (27.42%), Grassland with

scattered trees (23.67%), Thicket (22.86%) and Bushland (14.26%) constitute the major

cover types at Awash national park (table 1).

Figure 3: Present Land use / cover map of ANP



Table 1: Area sizes of land cover types

Cover type / use Symbol Area (ha) Percentage Thicket F1 13479.00 22.86 Bush land F2 8409.00 14.26 Grassland F3 5685.67 9.64 Grassland with scattered shrubs F4 16168.67 27.42 Grassland with scattered trees F5 13957.67 23.67 Palm Forest F7 375.00 0.64 Exposed surface N 305.00 0.52 Lava flow L 587.00 1.00 TOTAL 58967.00 100.00

2.2.2 Description of present land cover

Thicket (F1) had a composition of trees, shrub, and grass between 5-20%, 10-15% and 25-

55%, respectively (Plate 1). Exposed surface within the unit occupy 10-25%. Characteristics

tree species found in the unit

include Acacia senegal, Acacia

tortolis, and Dobera glabra. A.

mellifera is also dominant among

the shrub layer while Balanites

aegyptica and others are also

present among others. The unit

covers an area of 13479 hectare

(22.8%).

Bushland (F2) covers an area of 8409 hectare (14.3%). It is characterized by trees (



Plate 3: Grassland with Trees at ANP

Plate 2: Bush land (A) and Grassland (B) at ANP

Grassland (F3) covers an area of 5685 hectare (9.6%) and is characterized by trees (0-1 %),

shrubs (0-2%), grasses (80-90%) and bare lands (



Plate 6: Doum Palm at ANP

Plate 5: Riverine forest at ANP

Riverine forest (F6) is located along the

Awash river and is not mapped due to

the spatial resolution of the classified

image. Tree species found in the unit

include Acacia etbaica, Celtis africana,

Ficus sur, Grewia bicolor, Tamarindus

indica, Ziziphus muro, and Z.

mucronata. Saplings encountered

include Z. mulenona, B. discolor, Z.

mucronata, Acacia senegal and Ficus sur. Seedlings of and T. indica were also observed

(Plate 5).

Palm trees (F7) are located in the

northern and north eastern part of the

national park, around the hotspring

(Plate 6). The unit covers an area of

375 ha and the dominant species was

Hyphaene coriacea.

Marsh land (W): the unit is not mapped. It is located adjoining the hot springs and has a 96-

100% real cover; water surface cover



2.2.3 Land use / cover changes

Class change analysis at ANP (Figure 4) shows that the most persistent and considerable

change, in all measured time period, had occurred in the grassland unit. Between the end of

1990’s and 2014 significant part of this cover type had gone to Grassland with shrub (34.6%)

and an almost equivalent amount (29.14%) was changed to grassland with trees. Similarly,

between the early 1970’s and mid 1980’s, two-third of the loss in grassland was a gain to

Grassland with shrub. Since the early 1970s there were also regular, but significantly

declining, changes in thicket.

Figure 4: land use / land cover class change between 1973 and 2014 at ANP

2.2.4 Drivers of Land cover Change

The vegetation types at ANP had undergone changes in the studied period mainly due to the

influence of over-grazing by domestic animals which came from different directions and

destruction of trees.

Majority of surveyed HH (70%) at ANP had also expressed their opinion that high number of

animal population coupled with scarcity of grazing land and animal feed, especially during

the dry season, had led to degradation of the vegetation. Other mentioned causes were also

an increase in human population and occurrence of drought.

Section 3: Wild animals Habitat Mapping


3. Wild Animals Habitat Mapping

3.1 Methodology

3.1.1 Data Set

Input data on environmental variables were obtained from different sources and some are

derived from existing data sets. Surface data including DEM from data centers of NASA and

USGS and data on infrastructure were collected from local governmental institutions in geo-

tiff and shape formats. Further, historical data on recorded wild animal density and other

available information were collected from the two Park. Information on habitat

requirements for selected species of the area was collected from different documents and

in consultation with wild animal experts.

3.1.2 Habitat assessment and mapping

Field work was made between end of November and December 2014. Based on the

preliminary land cover map and in consultation with wildlife experts and other key

informants, data and information on wild animal habitats within the park were collected.

These include data on habitat use, seasonality, and routes frequented. Further, location of

animal watering places, frequent wild animal-vehicle collision areas and man-made features

were registered. On areas which lacks vegetation information, survey of vegetation classes

was also carried out in four transects and a total of 22 plots at ANP. Information gathered

and observations made were registered in formats developed and in reference with

registered points (GPS location). Along with the trend analysis, sampled HH were also

interviewed in the historic type and abundance of wild-animals along with their personal

views for the incline / decline observed. Habitat maps were produced through the analysis

of generated and derived data sets in GIS and with the integration of ancillary data and

information.

ArcGIS 9.2 was used to manage and manipulate geographic data including DEM images. The

software was also used to build and run habitat model. Garmin 12 GPS was used to register

geographical location during inventory of existing land units and collection of other spatial

information. Binoculars and digital cameras were used in the spotting and taking of pictures

of wild-animals.



Plate 8: Soemmering’s gazelle at ANP

Plate 7: Dik-Dik at ANP

3.2 Results and Discussions

3.2.1 Bio-Diversity of Awash National Park

Wild animals like, Klipspringer (Oreotragus oreotragus), Salt’s dik dik (Madoqua saltiana),

mountain Reed buck (Redunca fulvorufula), Jackal, and Crested Porcupine (Hystrix cristata)

inhabit the bush land and thickets (Plate 7).

Caracal (Felis caracal) favors the thicket as

well the grassland area, especially toward

mid northern part of the park. In the wet

season species like Lesser kudu (Tragelaphus

imberbis) were mainly localized to areas

where the units adjoin water bodies, such

as west of Gotu camp. The geographical

distribution of these two unit ranges from

the side and foot slope of Fentale mountain to the undulating and flat lands at the center

and far eastern parts of the park. Tree species such as Acacia senegal, A. tortolis, A.

mellifera, A. nilotica, Dobera glabra, Grewia spp, Balanites spp., Celtis spp., Ziziphys spp.,

and Grewia spp are found in these units.

The grass land, the grassland with trees, and

grassland with shrubs (Plate 8) are the main

habitat of Beisa Oryx (Oryx beisa),

Sommerring’s gazelle (Gazella

soemmerringi), and warthog (Phacochoerus

aethiopicus). These species, during the dry

season, visit the thickets for food (browsing).

Swayne’s hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus

swaynei) and Ostrich (Struthio camelus)

once also exclusively inhabit these units.

Warthog (Phacochoerus aethiopicus), is



Plate 9: Hamadryas Baboons at ANP

mostly confined to peripheries of the unit adjoining the water areas during the dry season,

however, during the wet season didn’t show particular affinity towards any.

The grass land, marshy area and the

adjoining cliff nearby the hot spring

provide habitat for Rock hyrax (Procavia

capensis) and Hamadryas baboons

(Papio hamadryas); range for the latter

extends as far to south-eastern parts of

the park (Plate 9). Warthog

(Phacochoerus aethiopicus) and

Waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus) are

also found in the dry season. Lion

(Panthera leo) and leopard (Panthera

pardus) are mostly found in the mountainous areas on the central part of the park and visits

almost all identified units.

Many bird species are found distributed in the park land (Plate 10). The riverine forest and

the marshy areas around the hot spring were some of the places where numerous bird

species are observed.

Plate 10: Birds at ANP



The riverine forest is mainly composed of tree and shrub species like Acacia etbaica, Celtis

spp, Ficus species, Grewia Bicolor, Tamarindus indica, Trichilia spp., B. discolor Acacia

Senegal, Ziziphus muro, and Z. mucronata. The unit provides habitat for Colobus monkey

(Colobus guereza), Grivet monkey (Chlorocebus aethiops) and Anubis baboons (Papio

anubis), among others.

The adjoining water-bodies are also habitats for species like crocodile and hippopotamus

(Hippopotamus amphibius). Waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus) was also found along awash

river but at present mainly near marshy lands at hot spring area; during the wet season,

when human and domestic animals interference is at its low, it can spent most of its time in

the grassland, otherwise feed during the night and remain in the adjoining thicket during

the day.

3.2.2 Trends in Number of Wild-animal Population

Available census data indicate that the number of Beisa Oryx (Oryx beisa) and Soemmering’s

gazelle (Gazella soemmerringi) population has declined between 2008 and 2010 at ANP

(Figure 5). The number of Salt’s dik dik (Madoqua saltiana), common warthog

(Phacochoerus aethiopicus) and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta), however, had shown an

increment of approximately 200 each between 2008 and 2010. The present distribution of

some wild animals in the national park is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 5: Change in number of species for some wild animals occurring in ANP between 2008 and 2010



Figure 6: Map depicting the present distributions of some wild animals at ANP



3.2.3 Habitat Fragmentation

IPCC (2002) had emphasized that changes in ecosystem and attendant loss of biodiversity

are caused by land use cover changes and habitat fragmentation, among others. Further,

Fischlin et. al. (2007) have stated that the present and future land-use change and

associated landscape fragmentation are very likely to impede species’ migration and thus

impair natural adaptation via geographical range shifts. Studies also show that (Barbara

et.al, 2009) fragmentation leads some species to become more abundant while make others

decline to local or regional extinction.

In the past 40 years, the vegetation units in Awash National Park have undergone changes in

area size and distribution patterns of vegetation unit. The major identified anthropogenic

causes of fragmentation are described below.

3.2.3.1 Deforestation and Degradation

Overgrazing by domestic animals, collection of wood and expansion of farmlands were the

main factors causing deforestation and degradation in the national park.

3.2.3.1.1 Expansion of Cultivated Land

In 2002, WBISPP had also carried out an indicative study on the population support capacity

of rain-fed cropland in order to determine the capacity of the land to support the current

and projected populations, that is, the degree of population pressure. Based on this study

the potential limit for Fentale woreda has been much exceeded and was categorized as

critical (Table 2).

Table 2: population support capacity analysis for Fentale woreda (source: WBISPP)

ZONE wereda Total rural population Potential total

population

current/ potential

(%)

yr 10/ potential

(%)

yr 20/ potential

(%) Category

East Shewa Fantale 56,768 6,506 873% 1206% 1666% Critical

After the re-demarcation of Awash National Park boundary in 2012, parts of the left out areas was converted to agricultural plots.



Plate 11: Goat and sheep herds nearby Ilala-Sala plain at ANP

3.2.3.1.2 Competition from Grazing by Domestic Animals

During the rainy season domestic animals graze around homesteads. However, starting

from the onset of the dry periods, between mid-October and end of May, herders, from the

surrounding areas of ANP most often

send their cattle, goats and sheep to

other areas, including the park, for

grazing (Plate 11). Most frequented

areas of grazing in the national park

include Mt. Fentale and its

surrounding, the mid eastern, and

southern (including Ilala Sala plane)

parts of the national park.

3.2.3.1.3 Collection of Fuel and construction wood

No data on the amount, season and intensity of collection of fuel and construction wood

was available. However, considering that 100% of the surveyed HHs use biomass as the

main source of cooking and heating and noting that in the Ethiopian context the average

estimated annual consumption is 560kg, it can be inferred that there is high pressure on the

national park.

3.2.3.2 Infrastructure development

Addis-Djibouti Rail way

Since the early 1900’s, the rail way linking Addis and Djibouti town passes between the mid-

eastern and south-western part of the Awash national park for approximately 26 Km, and

was not functional for the past decade or so. Nevertheless, a new railway is under

construction (Plate 12), and unlike the previous old railway, it shall support modern and

faster ones. The route shall also probably be fenced throughout its passage with mesh-wire

to avoid collision. In line with this, park authorities have asked for the construction of

underpasses / overpasses at different points along the route to allow movement of wild

animals.



Plate 12: Part of Addis-Djibouti Rail-way under construction at ANP

One big concern is related with time of adaptation of some species with the proposed over

and/or underpasses. The habitat of Oryx, for example, are found in both sides of the

railway; it frequents the southern side most often during the dry season but also moves to

the northern side at the onset of the rainy season and when the number of domestic

animals decrease. Oryx stays there mostly till the end of the wet season, by which time

availability of water reduced and number of domestic animals rise, then returning to the

southern parts.

Settlements

Awash town was expanding at a faster rate towards the boundary lines of ANP. Associated

with it, human interference, and as witnessed in most other towns, disposal of urban waste

would be one of the major problems that would be faced in the near future. Further,

intensity of fuel wood collection and intrusion into the park area would be more aggravated.

3.2.3.3 Impacts of Fragmentation

Based on collected HH data, the numbers of baboons in the national park and adjoining KAs

have increased while that of most other animals had decreased, especially in the past 5 to

15 years. One of the main habitats for species such as baboons is peripheries of wood and

bush lands.



Figure 7: Frequent road kill areas by species type at ANP

Figure 8: Cross section view of road crossing ANP

3.2.4 Other Pressures

3.2.4.1 Road Kill

Available records show that there were a number of road kill at ANP in the past years. A

number of wild animals, such as Oryx beissa, Lesser kudu (Tragelaphus imberbis),

Hamadryas baboon (Papio hamadryas), Hyena (Crocuta crocuta), Civet (Vivera civetta), as

well as many baboons and big birds were killed on the road (Figure 7).

In 2013/14 some eight Oryx and

three lesser kudu were killed among

others. The figures, however, were

much underestimated, as it was

based only on data registered at the

traffic office. Further, it was believed

that the killing of a single wild animal

can bring more collision, especially

carnivores.

Some of the Oryx were killed on the flatlands while most others at a junction towards

Awash town and where the inclination starts. Other animals were killed on areas which have

gentle to moderate slope

(Figure 8). Vehicles speed

and fragmentation of

habitats could be the major

causes for the disaster.

During the first week of the

field work at ANP, humps were constructed in some six places on part of the Addis – Dire

Dawa highway that crosses the park, to lower the speed of vehicles.



3.2.4.2 Alien Invasive Species

The invasive tree species, Prosopis julliflora, which is widely spread in the adjoining Afar

plains, was slowly penetrating to the ANP from the NE and Eastern part. The species is

known for its aggressive expansion and invading characteristics. Different studies show that

and interviewed HH are evidence for, one way in which the introduction and spread of the

species is associated with the movements of animal herds from one area to another.

Section 4: Climate Change Risk Profiles


4. Climate Change Risk Profiles

4.1 Objective

Specific objective of this study was to create climate change risk profiles that cover all the

major hazards prevailing in and around the Awash National Park.

4.2 Methodology

4.2.1 Data Set

Ten years climatic data from meteorological stations at Methara (ANP) was collected from

the National Meteorological Service Agency (NMSA). The basic parameters that were

considered in the analysis are monthly rainfall and monthly temperature.

Surface and atmospheric data files including archive fire from FIRMS1

4.2.2 Hazard Assessment

, surface topography

such as digital elevation model (DEM) and vegetation indices are acquired in geo-tiff and

shape formats from data centers of NASA and USGS. Climatic data were also acquired from

FAO. Classified land use and land cover map and other derived data are also used in the

analysis.

Historical data on Awash river discharge at different locations and Beseka water level data

were obtained from the Hydrology department of Ministry of Water and Energy. Perennial

and intermittent river features and surface water bodies found within the study areas were

extracted and digitized from topographic maps.

Data and information on hazards that have occurred in and around the national park and its

impact were collected from archived records obtained from Woreda Bureau of Agriculture,

in discussion with pertinent officials and key informants, household level survey and direct

observation.

1 MCD14ML: This data set was produced by the University of Maryland and provided by NASA FIRMS operated by NASA/GSFC/ESDIS with funding provided by NASA/HQ Available on-line https://earthdata.nasa.gov/active-fire-data#tab-content-6

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/active-fire-data#tab-content-6�https://earthdata.nasa.gov/active-fire-data#tab-content-6�

Section 4: Climate Change Risk Profile


4.2.2.1 Fire hazard Assessment

Distribution of archived fire data were analyzed and described in terms of spatial

distribution and frequency. FIRMS Fire hot-spots are acquired by the MODIS instruments,

on board NASA’s Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. A MODIS active

fire detection represents the center of an approximately 1km pixel flagged as containing one

or more actively burning hotspots/fires. Fire detection is performed using a contextual

algorithm that exploits the strong emission of mid-infrared radiation from fires. The

algorithm examines each pixel of the MODIS swath, and ultimately assigns to each one of

the following classes: missing data, cloud, water, non-fire, fire, or unknown (EOS-DIS, 2009).

Input data were used to estimate the fire prone areas at the study sites. The present land

use and land cover map, as part of it include the vegetation cover, data on slope, aspect,

elevation, proximity to road and to settlements were the variables selected as an input to

the model.

Initially, each selected variable were reclassified and categorized between classes. Class

categorization of each variable was made between the ranges of very high to very low

(Figure 9).



Figure 9: Maps of weighted variables



Further, environmental and anthropogenic factors that strongly influence the ignition and

spread of fire in the PA are selected and parameterized with the relative degree of influence

each has on the fire danger (Table 3). Variables weighted include the present land cover

classification, slope, aspect, distance from roads, distance from settlements and elevations.

Table 3: Variables and weight factor used in fire hazard mapping

Variable Assigned weight

Land cover 66

Slope 20

Aspect 7

Distance from Road 3

Distance from Settlements and towns 3

Elevation 1

Total 100

A model widely used in the determination of fire hazard was used to delineate areas

susceptible to fire.

4.2.2.2 Drought hazard Assessment

In order to determine the impact of drought on wild animals, assessment of NDVI values

between a known drought (2003) and non-drought period (1995) was made to determine

the vegetation unit most affected by the drought.

Vegetation indices were generated from Landsat TM images. The Normalized Difference

Vegetation Index (NDVI) was computed using:

NDVI =NIR − REDNIR + RED

Where NIR is reflectance in the near infrared (band 4 of landsat TM) and Red is reflectance

in the red wavelengths (band 3 of landsat TM).



4.2.2.3 Flood hazard Assessment

Derived and acquired data sets including slope (derived from digital elevation model),

drainage density, soil type, present land use and land cover and elevation data were used as

input in flood hazard assessment. The main flooding factors were reclassified into groups

and ranked based on significance / influence on the hazard (Table 4).

Table 4: Factors used in Flood Hazard Assessment

Factor Sub-factor Rank Description

Slope

27.109-79.120 5 Very high 16.496-27.109 4 High 8.966-16.496 3 Moderate 4.033-8.966 2 Low 0-4.03 1 Very low

Drainage density

0.365-0.568 5 Very high 0.249-0.365 4 High 0.149-0.249 3 Moderate 0.047-0.149 2 Low 0-0.047 1 Very low

Soil type

Vertic cambisols 5 Very high Lithic leptosols 4 High Eutric fluvisols 3 Moderate Eutric cambisols 2 Low Eutric leptisols 1 Very low

Land use and land cover type

Exposed surface 4 V. High Cultivated land 3 High Grassland 2 Moderate Thicket/bush land 1 Low

Elevation

760-920 5 Very high 920-1080 4 High 1080-1320 3 Moderate 1320-1600 2 Low 1600-1960 1 Very low

The standardized map layers were then assigned weights based on their relative importance

and normalized by the sum of weights. Accordingly, weights of 33.33, 26.67, 20.00, 13.33



and 6.67 were assigned for slope, drainage density, soil type, land use / cover type and

elevation respectively. GIS based weighted linear combination was used to derive flood

hazard areas.

Furthermore, Awash river discharge and Beseka lake level data were processed using Log

Pearson Type III analysis.

4.2.3 Risk Assessment

Based on integration of derived data on hazard and information on the elements at risk,

assessment of risk was made using weighted overlay. Ranking was made based on relative

importance attached and categorized from very high to very low. Available data on previous

impacts were also reviewed.

4.3 Results and Discussions

4.3.1 Climate

4.3.1.1 The Present Climate of ANP

The total mean annual rainfall for Methara, nearby ANP, is about 496 mm. The area receives

60% of the total rain fall between July and September and some 25% between March and

May (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Mean Monthly Rainfall: Methara.



The mean maximum and mean minimum temperature over Methara, 944 m.a.s.l, is 34.0

and 17.8OC, respectively. In December, the mean maximum and mean minimum

temperatures are at the lowest and in June at their highest (Figure 11).

.

Figure 11: Mean Monthly Temperature: Methara.

The spatial pattern of temperature in ANP (Figure 12) shows that, except the northern and

mid western (Fentale Mountain) parts, most other parts have temperature in between 20

and 22.5oC.

Figure 12: Thermal zones



At national level, a study (NMSA, 2005) showed that there has been a warming trend in the

annual minimum temperature over the past 50 years and an increase by about 0.370C in

every ten years. However, even though there were fluctuations, rainfall for the same period

had remained more or less constant when averaged over the whole country.

4.3.1.2 The Future Climate

A study by NMSA (2005) also showed that, for the IPCC mid-range (A1B) emission scenario,

the mean annual temperature will increase in the range of 0.9 -1.1°C by 2030, in the range

of 1.7 - 2.1°C by 2050 and in the range of 2.7-3.4°C by 2080 over Ethiopia compared to the

1961-1990 normal. A small increase in annual precipitation is also expected over the

country.

4.3.2 Hazards Assessment

4.3.2.1 Fire Hazard

4.3.2.1.1 Fire Frequency

In between 2001 and 2013 there had been 26 fire incidences at Awash national park. Of

these, seven each had been recorded in year 2012 and 2013. Furthermore, 54% of the hot

spots observed between 2001 and 2013 had occurred in just two years, 2012 and 2013

(Figure 13).

Figure 13: Number of fires observed by year at Awash National Park



The seasonal distribution of fire incidence at ANP (Figure 14) shows that most fire

incidences had occurred between early October and end of December, after which it shows

sharp decline in the month of January. Afterwards, it starts to rise again, rather slowly, and

reach its second peak in the month of May.

Figure 14: Number of fires observed by month at Awash National Park

Including the surrounding areas, February, May and December are the months in which fire

occurrences were most observed (Fig. 15). This implies that most fires had occurred at the

end of the dry season and a month or two before the onset of the rainy season.

Figure 15: Number of fires observed at Awash National Park and surrounding areas by month

Considering the adjoining KAs, the number of fires recorded is proportionally very high at

the vicinity of Merti sugar Factory (Figure 16), where frequent firing of sugar cane fields



were practiced at different times annually. Merti-sugar, adjoins the national park in the

south western side, in between, there is Awash river.

Figure 16: Distribution of fire points in the KAs surrounding ANP

Still, year 2012, 2013 and 2014 were the years in which most fire occurrences had been

observed (Figure 17)

Figure 17: Number of fires observed per year at Awash National Park and surrounding areas

The spatial distribution of fires (Figure 18) shows that there were accumulations of fire

points at three areas; in far north, mid-eastern and central parts.



Figure 18: Location of Fire pixels in ANP and the surrounding areas

Within the national park, the main causes of fire are believed to be careless throwing of

cigarette butts from passing vehicles and passenger trains as well as from car exhaust.

Overlaying the road network, the argument can easily be justified, as some of the fire pixels

are observed near it (Figure 18) and probably explaining the causes for the central part. In

the far northern part, unlike Merti-sugar, at southwest, there is no major river that can

potential hamper the propagation of fire from kesem irrigated areas.

Based on HH interviews conducted in adjoining KAs under Afar Region, the most probable

causes of fire in the mid-eastern part of the park could be charcoal production.

The main road is now made much wider (since 1994 / 95) and the old rail way has stopped

functioning (since some 5 to 8 years) and a new one is under construction.



4.3.2.1.2. Fire Prone Areas

Fire hazard areas identified at ANP (Figure 19) shows that most of the high fire hazard areas

are located at and near Fentale Mountain. The high fire hazard area covers 17.20% of ANP.

Almost half of ANP area is categorized under moderate (47.08%), 30.60% as low and some

5.00% as very low to none fire hazard areas.

Figure 19: ANP - Fire Hazard Map

4.3.2.2 Drought Hazard

Comparison of NDVI values between a known drought (2003) and non-drought period

(2008) show that there were changes in the NDVI values over the national park.



The mean NDVI values for year 2003 images (drought year) was -0.064733 with a standard

deviation of 0.253738 while that of year 2008 was -0.055139 with a standard deviation of

0.238072 (Figure 20)

Figure 20: Comparison of NDVI images over ANP (North eastern part of image) and surrounding areas for 2003 (A) and 2008 (B)

4.3.2.3 Flood Hazard

4.3.2.3.1 Flood Prone Areas

3.91 percent of ANP area was categorized as very high flood prone area. 20.34 , 33.56, 29.47

and 12.72 percent of the PA were also assigned as high, moderate, low and very low hazard

areas respectively. Very high hazard areas are located in the north and north western part

of the national park (Figure 21).



Figure 21: Flood Prone Areas

4.3.2.3.2 Flood Frequency

Based on a 28 years instantaneous daily flow data for Methara (gauging station 032003)

estimates of discharges associated with different return periods have been calculated to

infer the probability of future Awash river water level.

The mean annual flow of Awash river, at Methara gauging station, in 1983, 1993, 1999 and

2007 had exceeded 40m3/s (Figure 22).



Figure 22: Mean Annual Flow of Awash River at Methara

It should be noted that, most of the flow from the upper awash basin are regulated at Koka

reservoir, located some 110 km south-west of the Methara gauging station, with proper

notification on the release. However, there exist a proportional area of catchment between

the reservoir and the gauging station at Methara that contribute to the observed flow.

Figure 23: Monthly Flow of Awash River at Methara gauging station (1982-2009)

The monthly flow of Awash river shows high variation between August and September

(Figure 23). Accordingly, high water flow that can potentially overtop the natural levee of

the river could be expected during this time period. Within ANP, river flooding occurs in the

SW part of the river path, before cascading into the gorge, and affects the immediate

surroundings of its path.



Flood frequency, using Log Pearson Type III analysis for Awash river at Methara station is

shown in Figure 24.

Figure 24: Log Pearson Type III Analysis (using average daily maximum flow values) for Awash River at

Methara Station

4.3.2.3.3 Beseka Lake Level

Ten years (1997- 2009) daily water level data records for Beseka lake, located some 11

kilometres south east of the ANP, shows that the water level is continuously on the rise (Fig

25). Between March, 2009 and March 2013, Beseka lake has shown a 0.85 meters rise.

Figure 25: Water level of Beseka lake between 2009 and 2013



The expansion of the lake, based on satellite images acquired (Plate 13) shows a substantial

increase in area size between early 1970’s and 2014.

Plate 13: Comparison of images over Beseka Lake (from left to right: 1973, 1986, 1998 and 2014)

Studies (Girma et.al., 2005) show that major causes of degradation were accelerated soil

erosion by wind and water, increasing salinization of soils and near-surface groundwater

supplies and a reduction in soil moisture retention. Same study further note that, in turn

these has led to an increase in surface runoff and stream flow variability, a reduction in

species diversity and plant biomass, and a reduction in the overall productivity in dry land

ecosystems with an attendant impoverishment of the communities dependent on these

ecosystems.

Plate 14: Northern part of Lake Beseka (at the Background is Fentale Mountain)



4.3.3 Vulnerability Assessment

Hazard affects wild animals mainly through habitat modification (Kennedy and Fontaine,

2009). Even though, the extent, size, life form and combination of vegetation types required

by wild animals differ from one species to another, in general, habitat provide shelter, food

and water, and space in which the survival and continuity of wild animals depend (Yarrow

G., 2009).

Awash national park is also surrounded by pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities,

whose livelihood depend on the range and agricultural lands. Number of human and

livestock in the adjoining KAs were given in Annex 2.

4.3.4 Risk Assessment

An occurrence of hazard within the park might potentially affect the size and species

composition of habitat and the fauna that depend on it. Further, it will also affect the

livelihood of local community who mainly graze their livestock on the range lands.

Disruption of tourism may also decrease revenue and income derived by business operators

in the area.

4.3.4.1 Fire Risk

64.28% of ANP area was found in high fire risk areas and 30.60% under moderate fire risk

areas, together these constitutes almost 95%. The remaining 5% fall under low and very low

fire risk areas. An estimated 90% of land cover units whose major component is the

grassland, namely, the grassland, grass with trees and grass with shrub, fall under high fire

risk area. Likewise, about 24% and 73% of thicket and bush lands are found in areas

categorized as high and moderate fire risk areas respectively (Figure 26).



Figure 26: Fire Risk Map of ANP

4.3.4.2 Drought Risk

There are no sufficient census data to determine the impact of drought on wild animals,

nevertheless, most farmers, based on frequency of visit at their locality, are of the opinion

that the 2003 drought has a strong influence especially on Warthog.

In year 2002/2003, about 9,372 households holding 56,313 family members residing in

Fentale district were affected with drought; translated to 81.21% of the total district

population. With this drought, it was estimated that about 62,234 cattle, 19,466 sheep and

11,908 goats were dead (BoFED, 2011).



4.3.4.3 Flood Risk

Of the estimated 598 km2 total area of ANP, 14.6% is susceptible to flooding. Of these, 3.27

percent is categorized as having a very high risk of flooding and 17.17% as a high flood risk

area. The remaining 33.61%, 30.76% and 15.18% are delineated under moderate, low and

very low flood risk areas (Figure 27).

3.25 percent of land cover classes in which the major component is the grassland, namely

the grassland, grassland with trees and grassland with shrubs units, fall under very high

flood risk areas, while 17.26, 29.10, 35.56 and 14.84 percent were under high, moderate,

low and very low flood risk areas respectively. Similarly, 3.46 % of the thicket and bush lands

fall under very high flood risk area whereas 16.13%, 38.95%, 25.35% and 16.12% of these

units are found in the high, moderate, low and very low flood risk areas respectively.

Figure 27: Flood Risk map of ANP



Flooding affects the local community surrounding the PA. Flooding from Awash River

retreats within few hours and deposit sediments. Areas mostly affected by flooding are

localized on the plane areas along the course of the river. Considering the nutrient level of

the sediment deposited and effect on productivity, unless otherwise it occurred untimely

and devastates cropped lands, farmer’s perception towards Awash river flooding is not

negative as that for Beseka lake level rise. The latter, which is saline and showed no retreat

in months have rendered farmlands productivity low and forced abandonment of most

nearby agricultural lands and residential quarters.

Section 5: Conclusions and Recommendations


5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1. Conclusions

Identified land cover classes at ANP were subjected to changes of different scale in the past

forty years. Among these, the most significant one was the decline in the area size of

grassland. The major causes for the decline in area size differ in the time period studied.

Significant ones include the deforestation and degradation of the vegetation through

extraction of wood, overgrazing and expansion of cultivation.

Time-series comparison of census data revealed that there was a decline in the number of

Oryx beisa. Changes in the observed land use and cover classes might have significant

impact on the composition and abundance of wild animals in the national park.

Studies also reveal that the national park was exposed to climatic variations, especially

related with temperature. Moreover, risk analysis shows that the national park and

surrounding areas was exposed to fire, drought and flood hazard of different degrees. Some

64.28% of ANP were exposed to high fire risks and some 3.27 percent to very high risk of

flooding.

The national park possesses significant number of wild animals, including mammals and

birds that are endemic to Ethiopia. Beyond the ecosystem goods and services, the park has

the potential to generate a substantial amount of economic and social benefit from the

tourism industry such as livelihood diversification and job creation. These will help

contribute to the government plan for poverty reduction.



5.2. Recommendations

In order to support the ongoing efforts toward the conservation and overall development of

the protected area in general and resilience to climate change in particular the followings

are recommended:

• Developing monitoring system, deployment of the required material and training of

personnel is required to minimize risk and, on the occurrence of one, for an effective

response to any identified hazard.

• There is a need to collate the existing documents on traits of wild animals found in

the country, if not available, to conduct brainstorming workshops in which wild

animal experts would provide the scientific basis that help determine the interaction

in face of climate change.

• There probably exists a wide range of spatial and non-spatial data related to the bio-

physical and environmental characteristics of wild animals, park, etc. in the country.

However, such data, at least, are not available at park levels. It is therefore, very

important and timely to develop a geo-data base and migrate all available maps into

this for a better retrieval, storage and analysis (can be linked with the existing web

page of EWCA, access if necessary, can be with permission).

• Studies (Girma et.al.) show that the quality of Awash river had underwent

considerable changes in the past; some parts of it are also not frequented by

herders; it is thus timely to test the water quality of Awash River at different location

and salinity level of near-surface water to consider alternatives based on results.

• Sustainable development can be achieved when local communities are in direct

benefit from the ANP. Therefore, as suggested by NOPA (1992), there is a need to

establish park revenue sharing schemes that can, based on prioritized needs of local

community, be directed toward animal health and feed, supplementing current

efforts underway by the Fentale woreda office of Pastoralist and Agro-pastoralists in

nearby KAs of Oromia region and improved water supply.

• It is imperative to conduct carrying capacity assessment of the grassland,

composition of the herbaceous layer; including seasonal differences in dry mass.



• The location, size and probably length of under and over passes, currently under

construction should be reconciled in consideration of the biological traits of wild

animals found in the park and that can potentially be re-introduced into the park.

• Whatever possible interventions made to stop the encroachment and overgrazing of

domestic animals shall minimize the risk of invasive species.

• Installment of road signs, at proper places nearby the newly constructed humps, is required to avoid breakdown of passing vehicles.

• Anthropogenic impacts poses difficulties in the management of the wild animals

found at the national park. Nevertheless, data to accurately quantify such activities

are meager. It would be advisable to collect data on factors such as wild animal

dispersal areas, number and distribution of domestic animals and season of use, as

well as fuel collections and use of adjoining kebeles and production and sale of

charcoal.

References


6. References

Barbara Wilson, Leonie Valentine, Janine Kinloch, Tracy Sonneman, Marnie Swinburn, 2009.

Habitat Loss and Fragmentation IN: Biodiversity values and threatening processes of

the Gnangara; Editors: Barbara A. Wilson and Leonie E. Valentine

BoFED, 2011. Socio-economic profile of Fentale woreda.

Chuvieco, E. and Congalton, R. 1989. Application of Remote Sensing and Geographic

Information Systems to Forest Fire Hazard Mapping. Remote Sensing and

Environment, 29: 147-159.

Engstrom, R.T. 2010. First-order fire effects on animals: review and recommendations. Fire

Ecology 6(1): 115-130. doi: 10.4996/fireecology.0601115

EOS-DIS, 2009. Active Fire Data. Retrieved on March 06, 2015 from EOSDIS Earth Data

website.

FAO/LUPRD, 1982. Soil association map of Ethiopia, Technical document 6.

FDRE, 2005. wildlife strategy. Addis Abeba

Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P.

Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and

services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution

of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden

and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272.

Girma Taddese, Kai Sonder and Don Peden, 2005. The Water of the Awash River Basin A

Future Challenge to Ethiopia, ILRI.

Greg Yarrow, 2009. Habit Requirements of Wildlife: Food, Water, Cover and Space.

Cooperation Extension’s Forestry and Natural Resources Team, Clemson University.

Institute of Biodiversity Conservation, 2009. Convention on Biological Diversity, Ethiopia’s

4th Country Report, Addis Ababa.

IPCC, 2002. Climate change and biodiversity. Technical paper IV.

IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group 2008. Oryx beisa. The IUCN Red List of Threatened

Species. Version 2014.3. . Downloaded on 26 January 2015.

MoARD, 2005. Wildlife Development, Protection and Utilization Policy and Strategy, Addis

Ababa.

References


NMSA, 2007. Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia,

Editor: Abebe Tadege "Preparation of National Adaptation Programme of Action for

Ethiopia”, GEF / UNDP. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

NOPA, 1992. Pastoralists at a cross road: Survival and development issues in African

Pastoralism.

Kennedy P. L. and Fontaine B. J., 2009. Synthesis of Knowledge on the Effects of Fire and Fire

Surrogates on Wildlife in U.S. Dry Forests, Special Report 1096. Extension and

Experiment Station Communications, Oregon State University.

PHE, 2012. Three years Strategic plan of PHE Ethiopia Consortium, 2011 – 2013. Addis

Ababa.

WBISPP, 2002. A strategic plan for the sustainable development, conservation, and

management of the woody biomass resources, Volume 5, Methodology: Land Use

Systems Analysis.

Yirmed and Girum, 2013. Birds of Awash National Park, Revised Check list.

Annex


Annex 1: List of wild animals at Awash National Park listed in the IUCN Red list

Common name Scientific name IUCN status Estimated Total no. (2010)

Park

1 Oryx Beisa oryx Near-threatened 410 ANP

2 Lesser kudu Tragelaphus imberbis Near-threatened 1208

3 Greater kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros Least concern 35

Annex


Annex 2: Number of domestic animals at KAs surrounding Awash National Park

Annex


Annex 3: Comparison of No. of Livestock in Fentale Woreda between 2008/09 and 2013/14k

AcronymsAcknowledgmentsExecutive Summary1. Overview of Awash National Park1.1 Introduction1.2 Objective1.3. The study areas1.3.1 Location1.3.2 Topography1.3.3 Soil1.3.4 Water Resources and drainage1.3.5 Brief History of the Awash National park

2. Land Cover Classification2.1 Methodology2.1.1 Data set2.1.2 Preprocessing of Images2.1.3 Image Classification for land use and land cover mapping2.1.5 Land cover change detection2.1.6 Identification of change drivers2.1.7 Materials and tools

2.2. Results and Discussion2.2.1 Present Vegetation types2.2.2 Description of present land cover2.2.3 Land use / cover changes2.2.4 Drivers of La

a resource base and climate change risk maps for awash...

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