a report on skills mismatches in derby, derbyshire ... · skills shortages. this is significantly...

A report on skills mismatches in

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and

Nottinghamshire LEP

June 2017

2

About the research

The research provides detailed mapping of the supply and demand for technical and skills in a local economy. The project employed a new approach to classifying technical courses, apprenticeships and jobs into 5 primary and 59 secondary occupational groups to enable meaningful analysis of supply and demand. The design of this new approach involved analysing more than 400 college-based courses, almost 200 apprenticeships frameworks and pathways, and 228 technical occupations. Sources for the development of the approach included the ONS’ SOC Code Manual, careers guidance published by the Skills Funding Agency and other organisations, and the websites of qualification bodies. The mapping is used to analyse the supply of technical skills using data from the Skills Funding Agency’s Data Cube on completions of college-based courses and apprenticeships. For the demand for technical skills, job vacancy data from Burning Glass is used along with data from the Labour Force Survey on qualification levels. For 2015/16, this report analyses more than 19,000 college-based course completions, nearly 13,000 apprenticeships and around 200,000 job vacancies across the D2N2 area. The report also gives a broad overview of employer demand within the local economy and includes analysis of raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey. UKCES surveyed 3,127 employer establishments in D2N2 on a range of questions on recruitment, skills and training. Latter sections of this report focuses on the proportion of vacancies that were ‘skills shortage vacancies’, defined as those vacancies which were proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience.

The Centre for Progressive Capitalism

The Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s mission is to develop policies and influence policymakers to

instigate a more progressive and democratic capitalism. Our work is led by a cross-party advisory

board and a steering group of technical and policy experts. We undertake original research and

promote debate through publications, expert seminars and public engagement.

3

Contents

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 5

Vacancy analysis at the primary and secondary group level ................................................................ 6

The supply and demand for skills in technical occupations in D2N2 ................................................. 12

Technical groupings .......................................................................................................................... 13

Core technical ................................................................................................................................... 16

Semi-technical .................................................................................................................................. 23

Public sector technical ..................................................................................................................... 29

Privately funded training ................................................................................................................. 31

Reprioritising technical skills provision ............................................................................................... 32

Core technical ................................................................................................................................... 32

Semi-technical .................................................................................................................................. 36

Technical – advanced ....................................................................................................................... 39

SFA Funding ...................................................................................................................................... 42

Sectors – Technical ............................................................................................................................... 55

Business services .......................................................................................................................... 56

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ................................................................. 57

Health and social work ................................................................................................................. 58

Manufacturing .............................................................................................................................. 59

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities ..................................................... 60

Construction ................................................................................................................................. 61

Sectors – Professional .......................................................................................................................... 62

Health and social work ................................................................................................................. 63

Education ...................................................................................................................................... 64

Business services .......................................................................................................................... 64

Manufacturing .............................................................................................................................. 65

Information and communications ............................................................................................... 66

Public administration ................................................................................................................... 67

Construction ................................................................................................................................. 68

Appendix – Methodology of the mismatch analysis ........................................................................... 69

4

Definitions and Groupings

This report’s primary focus is on technical occupations. It defines a technical occupation as any that

on average is done by less than 30% graduates (as indicated by the highest level of education identified

in the labour force survey) and can be linked to relevant FE courses or apprenticeships.

Our technical definition is broken down into 5 primary groups to allow for more detailed analysis.

The groups are defined as follows:

Core technical: these are technical occupations that are typically held by people with level 3

qualifications or above.

Semi-technical: these are occupations that are typically held by people with level 2

qualifications or below. While further education can lead to these occupations, it is also

possible that some people will enter them without having done an FE course or

apprenticeship, given the relatively low level of skill required.

Public sector technical: technical occupations that are predominantly in the public sector.

Examples include care workers and teaching and educational support assistants

Privately funded training: these are occupations which are not typically done by graduates,

but nor are they unskilled. They are occupations that are technical in nature but for which

publicly funded training is not commonly provided. An example is skilled drivers.

Technical – advanced: these are occupations towards which FE can often provide a first step

or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common. They

also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in the core

technical group. Examples include artists and designers and engineering professionals.

Alongside these 5 technical primary groups, sections of the analysis consider four additional primary

groups:

Professional: occupations from the standard professional and associate professional SOC

major groups that on average are done by more than 30% graduates

Managers: same as the standard SOC major group

Elementary: same as the standard SOC major group

Other: those occupations that are not in the professional, associate professional, managers or

elementary SOC major groups but cannot be considered technical or professional for a variety

of reasons. These make up less than 3% of total vacancies.

Each of these primary groups consists of a number of secondary occupation groups and each of these

comprises of similar 4 digit SOC code occupations. For example, there are five electrician related

occupations at the 4 digit SOC code level. These are grouped into the ‘Electricians and electronic

trades/technicians/engineers’ secondary occupation group. Because this group is made up of

occupations that predominantly require level 3 qualifications, it has been put in the core technical

primary group.

5

Executive summary

This report on the skills mismatches in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire

(D2N2) Local Enterprise Partnership provides a number of insights into the composition and dynamics

of the area’s labour markets.

The report indicates that core technical and semi-technical occupations dominate the composition of

employer demand in D2N2, accounting for half of all vacancies. More detailed analysis of job vacancy

data suggests slightly stronger than average employer demand for core technical skills – and technical

skills more widely – in the area. 19% of job vacancies in D2N2 in 2016 were for core technical roles,

compared to an average of 18% across the UK. Similarly, all technical roles made up 62% of total

vacancies in D2N2, higher than the 60% seen nationally.

Combining the relative prevalence of technical vacancies with another of the report’s findings – that

technical roles generally enjoy an average pay premium of £13,840 over the national living wage, rising

to £17,520 for core technical roles specifically – it is clear that there is significant opportunity for

employment and income growth in this area.

However, analysis of UKCES’s Employer Skills Survey suggests that as much as 23% of technical

vacancies can be classed as skill shortage vacancies. As a reflection of the higher skill levels required,

this figure rises to 31% for core technical occupations. The presence of skills shortage vacancies implies

employers are having a hard time sourcing the technical skills they require to expand and grow.

Technical education will therefore play a key role in unlocking D2N2’s future economic success.

The report identifies a number of ways technical education provision in D2N2 could be re-balanced to

better capitalise on these opportunities. While in many ways course provision reflects the needs of

local employers, there is also potential significant under and oversupply of certain courses.

Key findings:

Under the wider definition, technical vacancies make up 62% of vacancies in D2N2, slightly

higher than the 60% recorded nationally. Of this, 31% are semi-technical, 19% are core

technical, 5% are public sector technical and 5% are privately funded training.

The health and social work sector is the largest source of employer demand in the area, with

24% of the total, followed by 17% for manufacturing and 15% for education.

The core technical occupations have an average advertised salary of £30,600 in D2N2,

compared to £25,700 for semi-technical.

According to employers, 31% of core-technical vacancies in D2N2 are difficult to fill due to

skills shortages. This is significantly higher than for semi-technical, with 19%, suggesting

employers are struggling to find the higher skills they need in the current local labour market.

There were an estimated 2,700 more skills shortage vacancies for core technical roles than

relevant FE course completions in 2015/16. Breaking this down reveals a potential

undersupply of 1,520 for IT engineers and technicians, 920 for metals, tools and instruments

manufacturing and 870 for electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers FE course

completions relative to skills shortage vacancies.

6

Vacancy analysis at the primary and secondary group level

Technical vacancies make up 62% of vacancies in D2N2, slightly higher than the 60% recorded

nationally.

Of this, 31% are semi-technical, 19% are core technical, 5% are public sector technical and privately

funded training, and 2% are technical. 25% of vacancies are professional.

Chart 1: Share of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and

Nottinghamshire versus the UK average, 20161

1 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data

1%

4%

9%

26%

2%

4%

4%

18%

32%

60%

1%

4%

8%

25%

2%

5%

5%

19%

31%

62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Other

Elementary

Managers

Professional

Technical - advanced

Privately funded training

Public sector technical

Core technical

Semi-technical

of which:

Technical

D2N2

UK

7

Since 2013 the D2N2 area has enjoyed steady growth in advertised job vacancies. Overall, technical

vacancies have jumped from less than 110,000 to more than 124,000, an increase of 13%.

Breaking this down, semi-technical vacancies increased by 9%, from 55,840 in 2013 to 61,090 in 2016.

But it was for the core technical vacancies where the most substantial job growth was seen over this

period. The area saw growth of 23%, from 31,420 to 38,610, representing a significant strengthening

in employer demand for core technical skills. The core technical group’s share of total vacancies also

increased, from less than 18% to more than 19%, while the share of semi-technical vacancies fell from

32% to 31%.

Chart 2: Number of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham

and Nottinghamshire, 2016 versus 20132


1,430

9,240

13,240

42,940

3,870

9,670

9,160

31,420

55,840

109,960

1,270

7,440

16,440

50,570

3,660

9,740

10,920

38,610

61,090

124,020

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Other

Elementary

Managers

Professional




Core technical

Semi-technical

of which:

Technical

2016

2013

8

Core technical occupations have an average advertised salary of £30,630 in D2N2, compared to

£25,710 for semi-technical. This suggests that the upskilling provided by FE can help young people

into significantly better paying jobs, contributing to the creation of inclusive growth in the area.

Chart 3: Mean advertised salary for job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby,

Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire versus the UK average, 20163


£13,100

£20,150

£21,330

£45,360

£45,190

£21,390

£27,360

£29,150

£35,270

£38,520

£30,630

£35,920

£13,100

£18,460

£19,570

£39,740

£40,770

£19,300

£24,820

£25,710

£30,620

£35,210

£26,940

£31,180

£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000

UK National Living Wage

Elementary

Other

Professional

Managers



Semi-technical

Core technical


of which:

Technical

All

D2N2

UK

9

Looking now at the geographical breakdown of job vacancies within the D2N2 area by local authority,

advertised vacancies were heavily concentrated in D2N2’s two main urban centres in 2016. More

than two of every three vacancies advertised were for jobs based in the local authority area of either

Nottingham or Derby.

Chart 4: Share of job vacancies by local authority area in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and

Nottinghamshire, 20164


0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

6%

28%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

North East Derbyshire

Bolsover

Gedling

Rushcliffe

Broxtowe

High Peak

Ashfield

Erewash

Derbyshire Dales

South Derbyshire

Newark and Sherwood

Bassetlaw

Amber Valley

Mansfield

Chesterfield

Derby

Nottingham

10

A slightly higher proportion of vacancies were core technical in Derby than in Nottingham, with

20% and 19% respectively. Similarly, 32% of vacancies in Derby were semi-technical, compared to

29% in Nottingham. Nottingham, however, had a higher share of professional vacancies, with 27%

versus 24% for Derby.

Chart 5: Share of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby and Nottingham, 20165

Chart 6 below turns the attention from primary to secondary occupation groups. These are groups of

the ONS’s four digit SOC code occupations. The technical four digit SOC codes occupations have been

allocated to 59 groups of similar occupations (secondary occupation groups) to allow for more

meaningful analysis at a slightly higher level. This is necessary because it allows for a more realistic

comparison of occupations and FE courses (see mismatch section below).

It is rare that completion of an FE course can only lead directly into a single occupation at the four

digit SOC code level. In other words, FE course completions can correspond to a number of similar

occupations, hence the need for slightly higher level groups.

Each of these secondary occupation groups corresponds to one of the primary occupation groups in

the above chart. More details of how primary groups, secondary groups and occupations relate to one

another can be found in the appendix.


1%

3%

8%

24%

2%

5%

4%

20%

32%

64%

1%

3%

8%

27%

2%

5%

5%

19%

29%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Other

Elementary

Managers

Professional

Technical - other



Core technical

Semi-technical

of which:

Technical

Nottingham

Derby

11

Chart 6 identifies the five secondary occupation groups with the highest share of total vacancies, for

both the core technical and semi-technical primary groups. For core technical groups, IT engineers and

technicians had the highest share, with 6% of the total number of vacancies. For the semi-technical

groups this was sales and retail, with 9% of the overall total.

Chart 6: Top 5 secondary occupation groups by share of total vacancies for the core technical and

semi-technical primary groups in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 20166


2%

2%

5%

6%

9%

2%

2%

2%

2%

6%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Manufacturing operatives

Contact centre and customer service occupations

Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors

General administative occupations

Sales and retail

SEMI-TECHNICAL

Business and related associate professionals

Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers

Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing

Engineering and planning/process/productiontechnicians

IT engineers and technicians

CORE TECHNICAL

12

The supply and demand for skills in technical occupations in

D2N2

According to employers, 31% of core-technical vacancies in D2N2 are difficult to fill due to skills

shortages7. This is significantly higher than for semi-technical, with 19%, indicating employers are

struggling to find the higher skills they need in the current local labour market.

This points to a key role for FE colleges in supporting inclusive economic growth in D2N2. If FE course

providers are able to offer the right kind of technical training in the right sorts of skills then not only

will young people be able to move into higher paid jobs, local businesses will also be able to grow and

prosper. Of course, this will also be an issue of capacity and student demand.

Chart 7: The percentage of vacancies that were skills-shortage vacancies in Derby, Derbyshire,

Nottingham and Nottinghamshire for each primary occupation group, 20158

7 Skills shortage vacancies are those vacancies that were proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience. 8 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire.

17%

16%

32%

20%

20%

27%

31%

32%

24%

17%

21%

33%

17%

19%

27%

30%

31%

23%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Managers

Elementary

Professional*


Semi-technical


Technical - other

Core technical

of which:

Technical*

D2N2

UK

13

Below follows an analysis of the alignment of technical courses to technical occupations. The ESFA

datacube is analysed and courses are mapped to corresponding technical occupations to highlight

potential over or undersupply of various skill sets.

The charts include data on apprenticeships, which also form a key part of how policy can combat skills

shortages. The number of apprenticeships, however, is not taken into account for mismatch

calculations.

Having said this, it is true that an occupation group with a large amount of skills shortage vacancies

and few FE course completions will be in a better position to tackle the skills shortages if there are a

good amount of apprenticeships. According to government data, 77% of apprentices stay with the

same employer after finishing.9

The objective of the mismatch analysis is to identify possible skill areas where LEPs and FE providers

can aim to either increase or decrease provision of technical courses or apprenticeships.

When considering the trend analysis it is important to note that the period 2014/15 to 2015/16 is

defined by steady decline in FE course numbers and strong growth in job vacancies. More

specifically, there was a 17% fall in the total number of FE courses considered in this report, from

22,400 to 18,500. This came during a period of particularly strong job vacancy growth of 46%.

The analysis is not conducted for professional roles, as the link between the provision of graduate

courses and local labour market demand is far weaker and less direct. This is due both to the greater

movement of graduates out of the area after course completion and the large variation in graduate

course subject and eventual career path.

Technical groupings

This section of the analysis looks at supply and demand of skills at the level of the primary technical

groupings (core technical, semi-technical, privately funded training, public sector technical and

technical – advanced). Each of these are made up of secondary groups of technical occupations, which

in turn are comprised of similar four digit SOC code occupations.

There were almost 24,000 more core technical vacancies than there were FE course completions in

D2N2 in 2015/16.

However, people already working in similar jobs will fill a certain portion of the core technical

vacancies. In other words, some of this potential undersupply of FE course completions can be

explained by industry churn. It is thus important to calculate how much of this undersupply is due to

skills shortages, as it is these jobs that FE policy should be targeting.

An estimated 31% of core technical vacancies are due to skills shortages (see appendix for

methodology). Hence, there were an estimated 2,700 more core technical skills shortage vacancies

than relevant FE course completions. It is worth noting that not everyone that takes a course will

necessarily continue into the corresponding occupation. Hence, supply would need to be slightly

above demand in a stable or growing occupation group.

9 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-facts-about-apprenticeships/key-facts-about-apprenticeships

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-facts-about-apprenticeships/key-facts-about-apprenticeships

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-facts-about-apprenticeships/key-facts-about-apprenticeships

14

If each of these 2,700 vacancies were filled by people currently earning the living wage it could

provide a boost of more than £47.3m per year in income, and enable firms to meet the current

demand for their goods and services. This boost in income would also stimulate the local economy

due to higher consumption, which in turn may result in higher investment.

There were approximately 27,000 more semi-technical vacancies than there were FE course

completions in D2N2 in 2015/16. Reflecting the lower skill level, only an estimated 19% of semi-

technical vacancies were skills shortage vacancies. As such, the entire potential undersupply at the

aggregate level disappears and FE course completions appear to be well aligned with the number of

semi-technical skills shortage vacancies.

Chart 8: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship

completions by primary technical group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,

2015/1610

10 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code.

10,220

3,170 3,430 2,420

18,030

3,420 3,740 3,190 3,980 680 1,140 1,430

15,810

4,910 3,090 1,700

12,680

2,400 2,450 960

3,870

660 2,200 1,120

4,780

1,480

330

70

3,100

590 310 50

1,150

200 170 50

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Tota

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SSV

s

FE C

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Job

Vac

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Core technical Semi-technical Public sector

Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5

15

Chart 9 suggests that the number of skills shortage vacancies for core-technical roles was less than the

number of relevant FE courses in 2014/15, but that the situation has significantly deteriorated since

then.

In all three of the primary groups in chart 8, the difference between the number of job vacancies

and the number of FE course completions has increased. In each case this is due both to the number

of vacancies increasing and to the number of FE course completions falling.

Between 2014/15 and 2015/16 the number of core technical vacancies grew by 48%, but the number

of FE course completions fell by 20%. Similarly, semi-technical vacancies were also up by 48%, with FE

course completions down by 19%. Public sector technical vacancies grew by 40% and FE course

completions fell 12%, explaining the more modest change in its mismatch.

Chart 9: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total

vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) for each primary technical group, Derby,

Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014-15 – 2015-1611

It may seem contradictory that there are 19% skills shortage vacancies for semi-technical occupations

when there is a slight surplus of courses. However, these are aggregate figures and may hide what is

going on at the secondary group level.

11 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.

-12,200

2120

-25,980

1420

-2,420

2,920

-23,960

-2710

-27,310

90

-5,490

1,980

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

-

5,000

All SSV All SSV All SSV

Core technical Semi-technical Public sector

2014/15 2015/16

16

For example, if there are 1,000 more FE course completions than SSVs for sports and fitness instructors

and assistants but 1,000 fewer FE course completions than SSVs for accountancy and finance

technicians/analysts/advisors then at the aggregate level the system is in balance – the 1,000 surplus

for sports and fitness instructors and assistants balances out the 1,000 deficit for finance

technicians/analysts/advisors. However, it is unlikely that in reality the 1,000 extra people who have

sports instructor skills will be able to fill the skills shortages from the deficit of accountancy skills. As

such, skills shortages can persist even when the aggregate is in balance because the alignment of

courses to specific needs is important.

Similarly, the fact that there were 2,710 more skills shortage vacancies for core technical roles than

there were course completions in 2015/16 hides important variations at the secondary occupation

group level. The analysis now breaks down the primary technical groups to highlight these differences.

Core technical

Chart 10 shows the supply and demand for secondary occupation groups within the core technical

group that have the greatest undersupply of course completions relative to vacancies.

For IT engineers and technicians there were 7,240 more vacancies than relevant course completions

in 2015/16. This figure is 1,520 when only skills shortage vacancies are considered, which still suggests

that if course provision for IT engineers and technicians is boosted in conjunction with increased

demand from students then the region could benefit significantly.

There is also a potential undersupply of nearly 900 courses for electricians compared to skills shortage

vacancies in D2N2 in 2015/16.

Other core technical groups that could potentially benefit from greater course provision include

metals, tools and instruments manufacturing and engineering planning/process/production

technicians.

17


completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,

2015/1612

12 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.

2,910

820 60 50

850 270 240 20

1,270 410

20 10

1,020 330 350 240

3,490

980

630 100

2,530

810 120 210

1,750

560 50 110

1,920

610 290 110

1,550

430

20 10

660

210 80

260

80 60

710

220 30

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Tota

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IT engineers and technicians Electricians and electronictrades/technicians/engineers

Metals, tools and instrumentsmanufacturing

Engineering andplanning/process/production

technicians


18

Chart 11: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary

occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1613


84%

35%

51%

1%

22%

7%

73%

20%

14%

52% 24%

84%

54% 86%

15%

38%

2%13%

26%15%

24%

7% 11%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FE C

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FE C

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IT engineers and technicians Electricians and electronictrades/technicians/engineers

Metals, tools andinstruments manufacturing


technicians

16-18 19-24 25+

19

For each of the four groups identified above the position has deteriorated since 2014/15. This is an

indication that course completions have failed to keep up with growth in employer demand for these

skills.

In fact, IT engineers and technicians saw a 49% increase in vacancies, compared to a 1% fall in FE

course completions. There was a small increase in electrician course completions of 5%, but this was

well behind the 66% increase in vacancies.


vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,

Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1614


-4,620

-780

-2,010

-360

-2,290

-570

-1,710

-

-7,240

-1,520

-3,600

-870

-3,140

-920

-2,980

-500

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

-

All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV

IT engineers and techniciansElectricians and electronic

trades/technicians/engineersMetals, tools and

instruments manufacturing


technicians

2014/15 2015/16

20

Chart 13 below outlines four further core technical secondary occupation groups for which there were

more job vacancies in 2015/16 than relevant course completions.



2015/1615


920

270 70

1,000 830

160 300

530

110 360 440 340

80 -

1,190

350

440 970

180 80

90

1,120

220

130 220 410

100 20

360

110

30

530

100 -

80

20

70 -

220

50 40

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tota

l Vac

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Business and relatedassociate professionals

Medical, dental and healthtechnicians

Mechanical technicians andmaintenance

Vocational and industrialtrainers and instructors


21



Once again, the situation is deteriorating for each of the secondary groups in the above chart. In each

case vacancies went up and course completions went down.


15%29%

2%12%

76%

30%

0%

22%

52%

20%

68%

15%

57%

5%

62%

19%

79%

20%9% 13%

95%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%FE

Co

urs

es

Ap

pre

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cesh

ips

FE C

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Ap

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FE C

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16-18 19-24 25+

22





-1,520

-350

-980

250

-450

430

-470

-60

-2,410

-660

-1,960

-60

-1,170

210

-910

-180

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000






2014/15 2015/16

23

Semi-technical

Turning now to the semi-technical primary group, it is important to consider that while these

occupations can be done by people with relevant courses, this is not necessarily always the case. The

lower skill profile of these positions means it is more likely than for core technical occupations that

they will be done by people without specific qualifications.

For example, the secondary group with the highest deficit of courses to skills shortage vacancies is

sales and retail at 4,070. FE courses that correspond to sales and retail occupations do exist, but there

were no completions in D2N2 in 2015/16.

However, the fact that one of the 15 new technical pathways is sales, marketing and procurement

suggests that FE will have a role to play in this area in the future, if only predominantly through

apprenticeships. Furthermore, the estimated presence of more than 4,000 skills shortage vacancies in

the sales and retails secondary group suggests that employers are in fact finding it hard to fill these

positions.

In the case of accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors, the potential 1,750 undersupply

of courses relative to skills shortages vacancies deserves policy attention. Filling these jobs seems

more likely to require specific skills that FE courses can provide.



2015/1618


8,050

2,080 400

5,260

1,300 60

3,970

1,050 180 120 2,340

600 1,260 610

6,240

1,620

110

3,180

790 50

3,070

810 130 100

1,520

390 10 230

1,430

370

880

220

1,060

280 90 40

250

60 -

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Tota

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Job

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Job

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Job

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Sales and retail General administativeoccupations

Accountancy and financetechnicians/analysts/advisors

Contact centre and customerservice occupations


24




35%

14%

35%

13%

28%

1%

14%

18%

49%

18%

29%

64%

18%

44%

47%37%

47%58%

8%

81%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%FE

Co

urs

es

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

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Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

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Ap

pre

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ips

Sales and retail General administativeoccupations

Accountancy and financetechnicians/analysts/advisors

Contact centre and customerservice occupations

16-18 19-24 25+

25

Judging from Chart 18, it once again seems likely that course provision is not keeping pace with job

growth in these areas, with the difference between course completions and vacancies increasing.





-9,810

-2,390

-6,280

-1,420

-4,780

-840 -1,700

370

-15,730

-4,070

-9,210

-2,200

-7,700

-1,750

-2,840

220

-18,000

-16,000

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

-

2,000


Sales and retailGeneral administative

occupationsAccountancy and finance

technicians/analysts/advisorsContact centre and customer

service occupations

2014/15 2015/16

26

Chart 19 identifies four further semi-technical occupation groups with more job vacancies than FE

course completions. For each there remains a potential deficit when considering only vacancies due

to skills shortages.



2015/1621


1,540

480 210

370

1,430

520 200

510 740

190 10

450 130 - 10

930

290

50

1,000

360

80

110

600

150 20

370

100 40

10

150

50

-

130

50

-

-

190

50

80

20

- -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tota

l Vac

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Job

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Job

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Job

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Manufacturing operatives Chefs Marketing associateprofessionals

Legal associate professionalsand secretaries


27




0% 4%

65%

18%

41%

100%

20%20%

30%

15%

36%

59%

0%

80%80%

66%

21%

46%

0% 0% 0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%FE

Co

urs

es

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

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Ap

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ips

FE C

ou

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Ap

pre

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ips

Manufacturing operatives Chefs Marketing associateprofessionals

Legal associateprofessionals and

secretaries

16-18 19-24 25+

28

As shown in chart 21, once more FE courses failed to keep up with job vacancy growth leading to a

deterioration across the mismatch between 2014/15 and 2015/16.





-1,800

-510

-1,510

-330

-940

-230

-700

-200

-2,420

-620

-2,280

-650

-1,530

-390

-860

-220

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-


Manufacturing operatives ChefsMarketing associate

professionalsLegal associate professionals

and secretaries

2014/15 2015/16

29


Chart 22 details the supply and demand for skills for secondary technical occupation groups primarily

in the public sector.

Interestingly, while there were around 3,070 more job vacancies for care workers than relevant

course completions in D2N2 in 2015/16, this deficit is eliminated when only considering skills

shortages. In fact, there were 430 more relevant course completions than skills shortage vacancies

for care workers. This seems to suggest that while there is considerable need for more care workers

in D2N2, that this is not an issue of lack of skills, more a lack of people wanting to go into the

occupation in the first place, or in fact stay there when they do.

Similarly, in terms of dealing with the overall undersupply of care workers, with average salaries of

only £18,400 in 2016 it is difficult to argue that greater course provision would be sufficient to fill all

of these vacancies. It is likely that government policy is a more important factor, especially given the

ongoing debate about the underfunding of adult social care in the UK.



2015/1624


2,260

430 390

1,150

480 100

320 230 680

150 300 40

490 110 100

1,680

320 850

640

960

200 140 410

720

160

500

50

430

100

630 20

380

70

10

50

210

40 -

-

300

60

10 230

50

140

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Tota

l Vac

anci

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SSV

s

FE C

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Job

Vac

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Job

Vac

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Job

Vac

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Ap

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Care workers Child, youth and communityworkers

Teaching and educationalsupport assistants

Public services and NGOassociate professionals


30




66%

3%

45%

33%

11%18%

91%

0%

9%

27%

9%45%

10%

48%

8%

25%

25%

70%

45%

22%

79%

34%

0%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%FE

Co

urs

es

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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cesh

ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

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Ap

pre

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ips

Care workers Child, youth and communityworkers

Teaching and educationalsupport assistants

Public services and NGOassociate professionals

16-18 19-24 25+

31





Calculating a mismatch for technical occupations for which training is predominantly privately funded

makes little sense considering the dataset only includes data on publically funded courses.

However, there are two secondary occupation groups in this category for which there are a significant

estimated number of skills shortage vacancies. There were 2,110 skills shortage vacancies for skilled

drivers and 830 for human resources and careers advisors. This suggests that the current model of

privately funded training is not proving sufficient.

The situation for human resources and careers advisors is likely to be complicated. While privately

funded training does exist – CIPD approved courses, for example – it is also possible that graduates of

business degrees will enter into the human resources industry via graduate schemes.


-1,100

1,250

-550 -330

-790

330

-60

600

-3,070

430

-1,200

-650

-900

440

-270

620

-3,500

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500


Care workers ChefsTeaching and educational

support assistantsPublic services and NGOassociate professionals

2014/15 2015/16

32

Reprioritising technical skills provision

In order to meet the skills shortages for technical occupations outlined above, re-prioritisation may

be necessary.

It is likely that self-employment levels in some of the occupation groups discussed below will be

relatively high. For example, ONS Labour Force Survey data suggest that there were 16,000 employees

and 43,000 self-employed in the UK for fitness instructor roles in the second quarter of 2016.

Furthermore, encouraging entrepreneurship is clearly key for developing a strong local economy.

However, there is still a strong case for some reprioritisation in further education provision given that

skills shortages exist side by side with course surpluses in D2N2. There is also significant evidence to

suggest that self-employed earnings are considerably below that of full employees. A report for the

Department for Business Innovation & Skills found that the estimated median annual earnings for all

self-employed was £10,800 in 2013/14, compared to £20,000 for all employees.27

Note, as alluded to above, the presence of skills shortage vacancies is not necessarily inconsistent with

well balanced FE courses or even a surplus of FE courses, either at the primary or secondary

occupation group level. At the primary level, a surplus of one secondary group can cancel out a deficit

of another secondary group, even though the skills are not interchangable.

There are a number of reasons why a surplus of courses at the secondary group level doesn’t

necessarily imply there should be no skills shortage vacancies:

Any reduction in skills shortages from 2015/16 course completions will only be captured in

future data

It would be wrong to assume that everyone completing an FE course will go on to closely

related employment

It is possible that the courses are not producing all of the required skills

This is still to some extent an aggregate level, hiding some variation at the four digit SOC code

level

Core technical

The analysis highlights three core technical occupations for which there were significantly more FE

course completions than vacancies. The potential deficits are of course larger when only considering

skills shortage vacancies.

For example, there were around 1,000 more FE course completions for media production officers,

operators and producer roles than skills shortage vacancies. The analysis suggests these students may

have had better job prospects had they chosen to do, for example, IT or electrician courses. The same

point, albeit to a slightly lesser extent, could also be made for beauticians and hairdressers and

barbers.

27 (BIS, 2016) ‘The income of the self-employed’

33



2015/1628


20 10 60 -

80 20

440

20 90

20

480

280

30 10

1,020

20

120 30

380

20

140

30

170

180

10

20

-

20

10

10

10

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200To

tal V

acan

cies

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

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Ap

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ips

Job

Vac

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SSV

s

FE C

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Media production officers,operators and producers

Beauticians and related occupations Hairdressers and barbers


34




87%

24%

51%41%

49% 45%

11%

76%16%

41%17%

39%

2% 0%

34%

17%

34%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships

Media production officers, operatorsand producers


16-18 19-24 25+

35

Encouragingly, the surplus has decreased for each of the three groups between 2014/15 and

2015/16. In each case this is due to the number of vacancies growing and the number of course

completions falling.





1,120 1,150

930

1,030

560

700

1,050 1,090

600

770

400

600

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


Media production officers, operatorsand producers


2014/15 2015/16

36

Semi-technical

Chart 28 below shows semi-technical occupation groups for which there were more course

completions than relevant vacancies in 2015/16 in D2N2, particulalry when considering only skills

shortage vacancies.

For sports and fitness instructors and assistants there were around 1,220 more course completions

than skills shortage vacancies in 2015/16. While some of this potential oversupply can be accounted

for by self-employment, this is an important area of potential realignment of course provision.



2015/1631


440

100

380

170 60 10

200 70 80 20 80 10 20 10

250 110

410

90

1,050

130

50 10

390

40 80 20

320

10 10 -

100

20

10

-

40 10

40

-30

10

70

- -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Tota

l Vac

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SSV

s

FE C

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Ap

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Job

Vac

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SSV

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FE C

ou

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Ap

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ips

Job

Vac

anci

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SSV

s

FE C

ou

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Ap

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Job

Vac

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SSV

s

FE C

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Ap

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Sports and fitnessinstructors and assistants

Veterinary nurses andanimal care

Air, rail and other travelassistants

Rail and road constructionand maintenance


37




0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

82%

32%

81%

42%

86%

10%0% 1%

8%

39%

13%

44%

11%

85%

21%

63%

10%

29%

3%14%

3% 5%

79%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

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ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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cesh

ips

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

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cesh

ips

Sports and fitness instructorsand assistants




Under 16 16-18 19-24 25+

38

The potential oversupply is easing for each of the occupation groups identified above, with the

exception of air, rail and other travel assistants, which has seen a slight increase since 2014/15. The

increase for air, rail and other travel assistants can be explained by the fact that FE course completions

grew by more than the number of vacancies. In each of the other cases the reverse was true.





780

1,270

570 620

230

340

500 510 490

1,220

490

600

290

420

220 250

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


Sports and fitnessinstructors and assistants




2014/15 2015/16

39

Technical – advanced

The technical – advanced group is made up of occupations towards which FE can often provide a first

step or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common. They

also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in core technical.

Chart 24 below outlines the course completions for artists and designers and performing arts.

In both cases there are significantly more course completions than vacancies. In one respect this is to

be expected as these courses are more of a foundation level before going on to further study, so it is

likely that this number would eventually shrink. Additionally, self-employment will also cut this surplus

down.

Chart 31:: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship


2015/1634


250

70 150

10 120 30

120

280

80

1,040

70 20

420

180

50

80

40 10

10

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Tota

l Vac

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Job

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Artists and designers Performing arts


40




83%

38%

87%

10%

63%

11%7%

0% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships


16-18 19-24 25+

41

The mismatch in performing arts has remained broadly similar between 2014/15 and 2015/16 because

FE course completions and job vacancies grew by almost the same amount.





930

1,250

340

540 550

1,060

320

500

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

All SSV All SSV


2014/15 2015/16

42

SFA Funding

Chart 34 below is a scatter plot of skills shortage vacancies versus SFA funding for FE courses, with

each point representing a secondary occupational group.

The chart shows that there appears to be little correlation between the two sets of data, although

there is a very slight positive association. This is consistent with the finding that the number of FE

courses is not strongly correlated with the number of skills shortage vacancies at the secondary

occupation level.

Chart 34: Skills shortage vacancies vs FE course funding by secondary occupation group, Derby,

Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/16

£0

£100,000

£200,000

£300,000

£400,000

£500,000

£600,000

£700,000

£800,000

£900,000

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

Fun

din

g

SSVs

43

The supply and demand for the 15 Pathways

The following section presents mismatch analysis along the lines of the 15 new technical pathways

due to be introduced into the FE sector between 2019 and 2022. The vacancies include only those for

technical occupations.

Chart 27 shows that in terms of vacancies, sales, marketing and procurement was the largest

pathway in 2016, with 22% of the total. Business and administrative and engineering and

manufacturing accounted for 17% and 12% of the total technical vacancies respectively.

Chart 35: Share of technical job vacancies by pathway in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and

Nottinghamshire, 2015/1637


0%

0%

0%

1%

3%

4%

4%

4%

6%

7%

9%

9%

12%

17%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Protective services

Agriculture, environmental and animal care

Hair and beauty

Creative & Design

Health & Science

Catering & Hospitality

Childcare & education

Social care

Transport & logistics

Construction

Legal, finance & accounting

Digital

Engineering & Manufacturing

Business & Administrative

Sales, marketing and procurement

44

Chart 36 shows the average advertised salaries for technical vacancies across the 15 pathways. The

digital pathway has the highest average advertised salary at almost £37,000. As outlined below,

there were 1,660 more skills shortage vacancies for digital occupations than FE courses in 2015/16.

Chart 37: Average advertised salaries of technical job vacancies by pathway in Derby, Derbyshire,

Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201638

Charts 38, 40, 42 and 44 show the total number of vacancies, the number of skills shortage vacancies,

FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for each of the 15 pathways in D2N2 in

2015/16.

Charts 39, 41, 43 and 45 show how the mismatch for each pathway has evolved between 2014/15 and

2015/16.

Analysis at the level of the 15 pathways is useful for a number of reasons. Principally, it helps to

account for the fact that there is inevitably some leakage between similar secondary occupation

groups. For example, while most people on completion of a business FE course will go into occupations

within the business and related associate professionals secondary group, some will go into

occupations within the general administrative occupations secondary group. Thus, the business and

administrative pathway outlined below accounts for this.


£13,190

£18,850

£19,090

£19,710

£20,180

£22,320

£24,000

£24,200

£27,520

£27,620

£28,370

£28,410

£30,650

£35,950

£36,950

£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000

Hair and beauty

Social care

Catering & Hospitality

Childcare & education

Agriculture, environmental and animal care

Health & Science

Transport & logistics

Business & Administrative

Engineering & Manufacturing


Creative & Design*

Sales, marketing and procurement

Construction

Protective services*

Digital

*<200 postings

45

According to the data, the sales, marketing and procurement pathway has the largest deficit of course

completions relative to job vacancies. However, as this pathway is closely alligned to the sales and

retail secondary occupation group, the same points outlined regarding that mismatch apply here,

principally regarding the likelihood that many of these roles can and will be filled by people without

specific FE course qualifications.


completions by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1639


11,360

2,930 1,260 1,040

8,070

2,070 270 1,000

4,580

1,400 1,000 1,090

4,420

1,180 180 130

8,530

2,210

10 360

6,420

1,680

680 480

6,050

1,780 480 500

3,440

910 170 110

1,910

490

- -

2,040

540

140 30

1,210

380 160

-

1,140

300 90 40

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Tota

l Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Sales, marketing andprocurement

Business & Administrative Engineering &Manufacturing



46

As shown in charts 30 and 32, the difference between course completions and job vacancies has

increased across every pathway for which there were more completions than vacancies. This has been

caused by strong jobs growth across the board, matched by a near universal decline in courses.

Sales, marketing and procurement vacancies grew by 55%, stronger than the vacancy growth of 44%

for business and administrative. Vacancy growth for engineering and manufacturing and legal, finance

& accounting was 40% and 48% rspectively. FE course completions all fell, by between 2% and 24%.


vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and

Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1640


-12,730

-2,320

-10,220

-1,710

-6,610

-690

-5,480

-1,040

-20,540

-4,360

-15,440

-3,190

-10,220

-1,930

-8,560

-1,970

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

-


Sales, marketing andprocurement Business & Administrative

Engineering &Manufacturing Legal, finance & accounting

2014/15 2015/16

47

For the digital pathway, there were around 7,700 more courses than vacancies, falling to 1,660 for

skills shortage vacancies.




3,750

870 60 60

2,180

700 1,470

510

3,300

1,540

530 360

2,070

720 300

830

1,570

1,060

630 170

4,370

1,390 410

310

1,850

840

360 40

1,380

470

130

190

870

440

20

20

950

300 140

-

240

110

70

10

210

70

10

-

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Tota

l Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Digital Construction Transport & logistics Catering & Hospitality


48



Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1642


-4,910

-870 -1,420

1,940

-3,230

-940

-1,800

-30

-7,690

-1,660

-5,500

-370

-4,420

-1,540

-3,240

-830

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

-

2,000

4,000


Digital Construction Transport & logistics Catering & Hospitality

2014/15 2015/16

49




2,310

440 470

1,150 1,500

330 620

270

1,390

290 680

170 70 20 30 10

1,720

330

890

640

2,090

460

660

460

1,490

300

1,130

230 70 20 90

410

80

30

50

730

150

50

-

710

140

10

30 10

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000To

tal V

acan

cies

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Social care Childcare & education Health & Science Protective services


50

The only pathway to enjoy an increase in FE course completions was childcare and education, with 3%

growth. This was, however, more than countered by the 39% growth in vacancies over the same

period.



Nottinghamshire, 2014-15 – 2015-1644


-1,090

1,360

-1,810

620

-470

1,450

90 180

-3,060

540

-3,010

370

-1,780

1,080

-50

80

-3,500

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000


Social care Childcare & education Health & Science Protective services

2014/15 2015/16

51

The largest potential oversupply of FE courses relative to job vacancies is for creative and design,

with 1,920 more courses than job vacancies. However, as stated elsewhere, many of these courses

can be classed as foundation courses, meaning they are a first step towards higher level jobs in the

future. Therefore, it is likely that the number that has completed these courses will fall by the time

they actual come to compete for these types of jobs.

Chart 44:: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship



140 30 380

180 170 40

920

300 390 110

330 10

120 20

480

60 260

60

550

200 380

110

2,480

20 50

10

40

30

20

-

230

60

110

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Tota

l Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Job

Vac

anci

es

SSV

s

FE C

ou

rses

Ap

pre

nti

cesh

ips

Agriculture, environmental and animalcare

Hair and beauty Creative & Design


52



Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015-/1646


730 860

1,490

1,730

2,390

2,940

610

830 1,000

1,370

1,920

2,650

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500


Agriculture, environmental andanimal care

Hair and beauty Creative & Design

2014/15 2015/16

53

Sectors

Sectors – All

The following section provides an analysis of the sectoral composition of vacancies in the D2N2 area.

Note that the sector refers to the employer and so any given occupation can be in any sector. For

example, while most chef jobs will logically be in the hotels and restaurants sector, it is possible that

there will be at least some in all other sectors.

As shown in chart 46, employers in the health and social work sector provided the greatest share of

vacancies, at 24% of the total. More than half of all health and social work vacancies were for either

nursing and midwifery professionals, care workers or health professionals, with 27%, 14% and 10%

respectively of the sector total. As such, the majority of health and social work sector vacancies are

for professional vacancies, as opposed to technical.

Manufacturing was the second most important sector – and the largest non-public sector – for job

vacancies in D2N2 in 2016, accounting for 17% of the total. The composition of manufacturing

vacancies was more widely spread than for those in the health and social work sector. No secondary

occupation group provided more than 1 in 10 of the sector’s jobs, with engineering professionals, sales

and retail and metals, tools and instruments manufacturing all with 10%.

Unsurprisingly, job vacancies for employers in the education sector were dominated by teaching and

education professionals, which accounted for almost half of all vacancies in the sector.

Chart 46: Share of job vacancies by sector in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,

201647


0%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

5%

7%

8%

14%

15%

17%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Agriculture

Mining and quarrying

Public administration

Electricity, gas and water

Financial services

Information and communications

Arts, entertaintment, recreation and other service…

Construction

Transport and storage

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles

Hotels and restaurants

Business services

Education

Manufacturing

Health and social work

54

Breaking this down into local authority areas, while the sectoral structure of vacancies is broadly

similar for Derby and Nottingham, there are some important variations. The data suggests that the

education sector is a significantly more important source of employer demand in Nottingham than in

Derby, likely due to the former’s large universities, which may also explain the greater prevalence of

professional roles in Nottingham shown in chart 5.

Additionally, employers in the manufacturing sector in Derby provided 22% of job vacancies,

compared to just 12% in Nottingham. This reflects the historical importance of car, planes and trains

manufacturing in Derby, a contemporary example of which being the £1 billion bombardier contract

to build Crossrail trains in the city.

In both towns, employers in the health and social work sector provided a significant share of

vacancies. In Nottingham, it claimed the largest share, but it was the second largest in Derby, narrowly

behind manufacturing.

Chart 47: Share of job vacancies by sector in Derby and Nottingham, 201648


0%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

3%

7%

7%

7%

22%

13%

12%

22%

0%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

7%

7%

12%

14%

19%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Agriculture



Electricity, gas and water

Financial services

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service…


Construction



Wholesale and retail trade

Manufacturing

Business services

Education


Nottingham

Derby

55

Sectors – Technical

Chart 48 shows the distribution of skills shortage vacancies across each sector. The business services

sector accounted for the largest amount of technical skills shortage vacancies in 2015 with 5,410.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles was second with 3,390 and health and social work

was third with 3,330.

Chart 48 also shows how technical skills shortage vacancies for each sector are shared between the

five primary technical groupings (core technical, semi-technical, privately funded training, public

sector technical and technical – advanced). As can be seen, the technical skills shortage vacancies are

predominantly core technical and semi-technical for every sector, other than health and social work

and arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities, where technical public sector jobs

make up a greater share.

Chart 48: The number of skills shortage vacancies for roles in the five technical primary groups by

sector of the employer, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201549

The below charts outline the nature of vacancies within sectors that are identified in chart 39 above

as having an abundance of technical skills shortages. Note, this uses burning glass data and the

vacancies are not necessarily due to skills shortages.

49 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Note, the figures here have been annualised using annual data from Burning Glass, since the UKCES question asks respondents whether they ‘currently’ have vacancies.

-

190

310

330

1,090

1,200

1,590

1,660

1,970

2,140

2,260

3,080

3,330

3,390

5,410

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000


Electricity, gas and water supply

Agriculture

Financial services

Education





Construction

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Other Service…

Manufacturing



Business services

Core technical

Semi-technical

Public sector


Technical - other

56

Business services

19% of technical vacancies in the business services sector were for human resources and careers

advisors, 17% were for sales and retail and 10% for contact centre and customer services operations.

It is likely that addressing technical skills shortages in the business services sector would require

tackling the skills shortages for these three secondary occupation groups, which between them

account for around 46% of the sector’s technical vacancies.

The mismatch analaysis can be seen on page 26 for human resources and careers advisors, 21 for sales

and retail and 21 for contact centre and customer services operations. Note that the mismatch is done

for each secondary occupation group for employers in all sectors, because FE courses and

apprenticeships are not sector specific.

Chart 49: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the business services sector by

occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201650

Other51

IT engineers and technicians 4%

Legal associate professionals and secretaries 4%

Marketing associate professionals 3%

Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers 3%

Engineering and planning/process/production technicians 2%

Artists and designers 2%

Estate agents and auctioneers 2%

Business and related associate professionals Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing

Public services and NGO associate professionals

2% 2% 2%

50 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 51 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.

Human resources and careers advisers

19%

Sales and retail17%

Contact centre and customer service

occupations10%


8%

Accountancy and finance

technicians/analysts/advisors

6%

Other*40%

57


The second largest sector in terms of number of technical skills shortage vacancies was wholesale and

retail trade; repair of motor vehicles. Chart 41 below breaks down the structure of all technical

vacancies within the sector. Sales and retail, mechanical technicians and maintenance and contact

centre and customer service occupations contain the highest shares of vacancies, with 38%, 19%

and 6% respectively.

The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen for sales and retail on page 21, for mechanical

technicians and maintenance on page19, and for contact centre and customer service occupations on

page 21.

Chart 50: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the wholesale and retail trade;

repair of motor vehicles sector by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and


Other53


Business and related associate professionals 3%

Manufacturing operatives 2%

Beauticians and related occupations 2%


Sales and retail38%

Mechanical technicians and

maintenance19%


occupations6%



5%


5%

Other27%

58


The third largest sector in terms of number of technical skills shortage vacancies was health and social

work. Within the sector, the care workers secondary group was responsible for the highest share of

total technical vacancies with 32%, followed by medical, dental and health technicians and general

administrative occupations with 20% and 13% respectively.

The mismatch analaysis (for employers across all sectors) can be seen on page 25 for care workers,

19 for medical, dental and health technicians and 21 for general administrative occupations.

Chart 51: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the health and social work sector

by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201654

Other55

Sales and retail 4%

Public services and NGO associate professionals 3%


Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors 3%


Human resources and careers advisers 2%

Contact centre and customer service occupations 2%


Care workers 32%

Medical, dental and health technicians

20%


13%

Child, youth and community workers

6%

Other29%

59

Manufacturing

Chart 43 shows the breakdown of technical vacancies within the manufacturing sector. Again sales

and retail top the share of vacancies with 15%, followed by 14% for metals, tools and instruments

manufacturing and 12% for engineering and planning/process/production technicians.

The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen on page 17 for metals, tools and instruments

manufacturing and engineering and planning/process/production technicians.

Chart 52: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the manufacturing sector by


Other57

General administrative occupations 5%




Stock control and distribution clerks 2%

Mechanical technicians and maintenance 2%


Sales and retail15%

Metals, tools and instruments

manufacturing14%

Engineering and planning/process

/production technicians



8%

Manufacturing operatives

7%

Electricians and electronic

trades/technicians/engineers

7%

Engineering Professionals

6%

Other31%

60

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities

Chart 44 shows the breakdown of technical vacancies within the arts, entertainment, recreation and

other service activities sector. 16% of technical vacancies in this sector were for hairdressers and

barbers, 15% were for sales and retail and 9% were for sports and fitness instructors and assistants.

The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen on page 28 for hairdressers and barbers and

30 for sports and fitness instructors and assistants.

Chart 53: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the arts, entertainment,

recreation and other service activities sector by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham

and Nottinghamshire, 201658

Other59



Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors 4%

Cleaners and caretakers 3%


Performing arts 2%

Public services and NGO associate professionals 2%


Medical, dental and health technicians 2%

Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors 2%

Engineering and planning/process/production technicians 2%


Hairdressers and barbers

16%

Sales and retail15%

Sports and fitness instructors and

assistants9%


9%Care workers

6%


5%

Other40%

61

Construction

In the construction sector, other than sales and retail, skilled drivers had the largest share of

technical vacancies with 12%, followed by engineering and planning/process/production technicians.

Chart 54: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the construction sector by


Other61

Manufacturing operatives 4%

General administrative occupations 4%

Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers 3%


Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing 3%

Engineering Professionals 2%

Human resources and careers advisers 2%



Sales and retail25%

Skilled drivers12%

Engineering and planning/process/production technicians

9%



8%


occupations7%


5%

Other34%

62

Sectors – Professional

Chart 46 below shows the estimated number of skills shortage vacancies for professional roles for

each sector.

The professional definition includes 84% of the SOC ‘major group 2: professional occupations’ and 4%

of the SOC ‘major group 3: associate professional and technical occupations’.

The health and social work sector has the largest number of skills shortage vacancies for

professional roles with 5,670, followed by education with 2,540 and business services with 2,420.

Chart 55: The number of skills shortage vacancies for roles in the professional primary group

by sector of the employer, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201562

The below charts show the nature of vacancies within sectors that are identified in chart 45 above as

having an abundance of professional skills shortages. This uses burning glass data and the vacancies

are not necessarily due to skills shortages.

As explained on page 13, no attempt is made to link professional roles to graduate courses, as it is

highly likely that the links to the local labour market demands are far weaker and less direct. This is

due both to the greater movement of graduates out of the area after course completion and the large

variation in graduate course subject and eventual career path.

62 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Note, the figures here have been annualised using annual data from Burning Glass, since the UKCES question asks respondents whether they ‘currently’ have vacancies.

20

30

100

210

720

1,130

1,390

2,360

2,420

2,540

5,670

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Financial services

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Other Service…

Electricity, gas and water supply


Construction



Manufacturing

Business services

Education


63


The sector with the greatest number of professional skills shortage vacancies was health and social

work. Chart 47 details how professional vacancies are distributed across the sector.

By far the largest group was nursing and midwifery professionals, with 58% of the total, followed

by health professionals and therapy professionals with 22% and 9% respectively.

Chart 56: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the health and social work

sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,

201663


Nursing and Midwifery

Professionals58%

Health Professionals

22%

Therapy Professionals

9%

Other11%

64

Education

Unsurprisingly, the education sector was dominated by teaching and educational professionals, which

accounted for 86% of professional vacancies. No other occupation achieved more than a 4% share of

the total.

Business services

Professional vacancies in the business services sector were dominated by legal professionals and

authors, writers and translators, which between them accounted for more than half of the total.

Chart 57: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the business services sector by

secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201664


Legal Professionals27%

Authors, writers and translators

24%

Information Technology and

Telecommunications Professionals

10%

Health Professionals8%


7%

Architects, Town Planners and

Surveyors6%

Business, Research and Administrative

Professionals5%

Natural and Social Science Professionals

5%

Other8%

65

Manufacturing

Professional vacancies in the manufacturing sector were led by engineering professionals, with 38%

of the total. Business, research and administrative professionals accounted for 21%, with information

technology and telecommunications professionals on 17%.

Chart 58: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the manufacturing sector by




38%


Professionals21%



17%

Quality and Regulatory

Professionals8%

Natural and Social Science Professionals

6%


Surveyors5%

Other5%

66


Unsurprisingly, the largest source of professional vacancies in the information and communications

sector was information technology and telecommunications professionals, with 54% of the total.

Chart 59: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the information and

communications sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and





54%


Professionals23%


6%

Other17%

67


Professional vacancies were spread fairly evenly in the public administration sector, with 6 secondary

occupation groups having between a 9% and 14% share of the total.

Chart 60: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the public administration

sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,

201667


Welfare Professionals

14%

Legal Professionals13%


Surveyors11%


Professionals11%



9%

Natural and Social Science

Professionals9%

Media Professionals7%

Teaching and Educational

Professionals6%

Other20%

68

Construction

Professional vacancies in the construction sector were predominantly in one of three secondary

occupation groups: engineering professionals (25%), architects, town planners and surveyors (24%)

and information technology and telecommunications professionals (18%).

Chart 61: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the construction sector by




25%


Surveyors24%



18%


Professionals12%

Teaching and Educational

Professionals5%

Other16%

69

Appendix – Methodology of the mismatch analysis

Level of data

The mismatch analysis was conducted at the lowest level possible for each aspect at the LEP level. This included analysing apprenticeships by the pathway chosen by each apprentice. For example, an apprenticeship in Engineering Manufacture (Craft and Technician) has 11 diverse pathways including: aerospace; fabrication and welding; and electrical and electronic engineering.

The mismatch analysis was conducted for technical roles only as professional roles are predominantly filled by university graduates.

The data sources used were:

College-based technical courses: Skills Funding Agency’s LEP Data Cube data on the number of completions by individual learning aim (based on all skills providers within the LEP).

Apprenticeships: Skills Funding Agency’s LEP Data Cube data on the number of completions by pathway chosen for each apprenticeship framework (based on all skills providers within the LEP).

Job vacancies: Burning Glass’ LEP level data on vacancies by four-digit SOC code.

Education level: Labour Force Survey’s (LFS) UK data by four-digit SOC code. Data are not available at the LEP level. Note, the LFS was used instead of Burning Glass’ data for advertised minimum education level as this specific part of their data is drawn from a small sample as only a small number of adverts specify this.

Skills shortages: UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey LEP-level skills shortages by 15 industry sectors, split by the ONS’s 9 broad occupation groups.

Scope of the demand-side analysis of technical vacancies

Vacancies are scraped from job posting websites. While all types of vacancies are considered, the

vast majority (~97%) are full time roles.

A technical occupation is any that on average is done by less than 30% graduates (as indicated by the

highest level of education identified in the labour force survey) and can be linked to relevant FE

courses or apprenticeships.

This is broken down into five primary technical groups:

Core-technical: these are technical occupations that are typically held by people with level 3

qualifications or above.

Semi-technical: these are occupations that are typically held by people with level 2

qualifications or below. While further education can lead to these occupations, it is also

possible that some people will enter them without having done an FE course or

apprenticeship, given the relatively low level of skill required.

Public sector technical: occupations that are predominantly in the public sector. Examples

include care workers and teaching and educational support assistants

Privately funded training: these are occupations which are not typically done by graduates,

but nor are they unskilled. They are occupations that are technical in nature but for which

publicly funded training is not commonly provided. An example is skilled drivers

70

Technical – advanced: these are occupations towards which FE can often provide a first step

or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common.

They also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in core-

technical Examples include artists and designers and engineering professionals.

In terms of the ONS Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Hierarchy, the following were

included:

Roughly 16% of major group 2: professional occupations

Roughly 96% of major group 3: associate professional and technical occupations

All of major group 4: administrative and secretarial occupations

All of major group 5: skilled trades occupations

All of major group 6: caring, leisure and other service occupations

All of major group 7: sales and customer service occupations

Roughly 90% of major group 8: process, plant and machine operatives

The following major groups were not included:

Major group 1: managers, directors and senior officials

Major group 9: elementary occupations

Scope of the supply-side analysis

For the number of completions of college-based courses, only ‘education and training’, ‘traineeships’ and ‘community learning’ funded courses were included. The small number of courses funded via ‘workplace learning’ (which has largely been phased out in favour of apprenticeships) were excluded since trainees on this route are in employment. Only technical courses with a significant time commitment required for completion were included. This was defined as certificates (130 to 260 hours of learning) and diplomas (370 or more hours of learning). Awards, which can require as little as 10 hours of learning, were not included. AS and A-levels were also excluded given the report’s focus on technical education and training.

Calculating skills shortage vacancies

The UKCES Employer Skills Survey (ESS) raw data provides estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for each SOC major group. The estimates of SSV rates for the primary groups are a weighted average of the number of skills shortage vacancies for each SOC major group in the UKCES data divided by a weighted average of the number of vacancies for each SOC major group in the UKCES data. The UKCES Employer Skills Survey (ESS) raw data provides estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for each sector. It does not, however, provide estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for individual occupations at the four digit SOC code level. Therefore, gauging the number of skills shortage vacancies for each secondary occupation group requires analysis of its sectoral composition. The skills shortage vacancy rate is thus the weighted average of all of the sectoral rates, based on how many vacancies the group has in each sector. This assumes a normal distribution of sector skills shortages across occupations. For example, 89% of vacancies in the skilled drivers secondary group were in the transport and storage sector. The transport and storage sector has a skills shortage rate of 54%, based on the ESS. Therefore,

71

the skills shortage rate of skilled drivers is heavily weighted towards this figure, with the final estimate being 51%.

Example mapping - Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers

(secondary occupation group)

Jobs

Burning Glass job vacancy data

Labour Force Survey UK-level data on the existing workforce (used to apportion the total number of job vacancies to levels)

SOC code (4 digit)

SOC occupation (4 digit)

Degree or equivalent

(Level 6)

Higher education (Levels 4 and 5)

GCE A level or

equivalent (Level 3)

GCSE grades A*-C or

equivalent (Level 2)

No qualificatio

n

3112 Electrical and electronics technicians

1% 18% 61% 20% 0%

2123 Electrical engineers 16% 23% 46% 10% 5%

5241 Electricians and electrical fitters

2% 11% 64% 20% 3%

5249 Electrical and electronic trades n.e.c.

5% 14% 54% 22% 5%

5250

Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades supervisors

2% 14% 59% 21% 5%

As the highest average education level is level 3 (57%), electricians and electronic

trades/technicians/engineers goes in the core technical primary group.

Apprenticeships

Skills Funding Agency LEP data cube

Framework Pathway

Electrotechnical All

Power industry All

Electrical and Electronic Servicing All

Electricity industry All

Engineering Manufacture - Electrical and Electronic Engineering

All

Engineering Technology Electrical/Electronics

Engineering Electrical and electronic engineering

Engineering Manufacture (Craft and Technician) Electrical and electronic engineering

FE courses

Skills Funding Agency LEP data cube

BTEC HNC Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)

72

BTEC HND Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical Installations (Buildings and Structures) (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical/Electronic Engineering (QCF)

Diploma in Electrotechnical Services (Electrical Maintenance) (QCF)

NVQ Diploma in Installing Electrotechnical Systems and Equipment (Buildings, Structures and the Environment)

Diploma in Providing Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical Installation (QCF)

Extended Diploma in Electrical/Electronic Engineering (QCF)

NVQ Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)

NVQ Diploma in Installing Electrotechnical Systems and Equipment (Buildings, Structures and the Environment) (QCF)

Certificate in Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission (Technical Knowledge) (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Wind Turbine Maintenance (Technical Knowledge) (QCF)

Diploma in Electronic, security and emergency systems (QCF)

NVQ Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance (QCF)

Certificate in Installing, Testing and Ensuring Compliance of Electrical Installations in Dwellings (QCF)

Diploma in Installing Engineering Construction Plant and Systems Electrical (QCF)

BTEC HND Diploma in Electronic Engineering (QCF)

Certificate in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission Technical Knowledge (QCF)

Certificate in Knowledge of Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)

Certificate in Providing Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)

Certificate in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission Technical Knowledge (QCF)

NVQ Certificate in Highway Electrical Systems (QCF)

Diploma in Auto Electrical and Mobile Electrical Principles (QCF)

NVQ Diploma in Bus and Coach Engineering and Maintenance (Electrical) (QCF)

Diploma in Power Engineering (QCF)

Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Underground Cables (QCF)

BTEC HND Diploma in Electrical Engineering (QCF)

BTEC HNC Diploma in Electrical Engineering (QCF)

a report on skills mismatches in derby, derbyshire ... · skills shortages. this is significantly...

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