a renewed vision for nuclear risk reduction, by michael j. mazarr

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  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

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    I @OOZE\ FGR]F]U]FOG ERRIV OG \EMUBFGH GUBAEI\ ]@\EI]R

    I \egewem Zfsfog

    jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    CFB@IEA K. CI[I\\

    Jor ̀ iaj i begtury, t`e Ugftem Rtites aem haolia ejjorts to bogtroa gubaeir rfsn fg

    t`e bogtext oj ig ibbucuaitfgh set oj fgtergitfogia fgstftutfogs. ]`e aeimfgh postwir

    fgstftutfog oj haolia hovergigbe, t`e Ugftem Gitfogs, paemhem sfhgitorfes to booperite

    to resoave t`reits to peibe, fgbaumfgh t`e gubaeir mighers fg`eregt fg t`e postwir

    eri. ]`e Gog-Troafjeritfog ]reity (GT]) oj 9684 breitem i jriceworn jor bogtroaafgh

    t`e spreim oj gubaeir weipogs igm paemhem t`e gubaeir-weipogs stites to t`e hoia oj

    mfsircicegt. I `ost oj lfaiteria ihreecegts, fgbaumfgh i serfes oj ibborms letweeg t`e

    Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog (igm t`eg \ussfi), aifm t`e jougmitfog jor mricitfb

    gubaeir remubtfogs. Ot`er ihreecegts bogstrifgem gubaeir testfgh or provfmem jor

    egjorbecegt oj gubaeir siaes igm exports.

    It t`e sice tfce, igm fg wiys t`it breitem tegsfog wft` ejjorts to afcft t`e roae

    oj gubaeir weipogs, t`e Ugftem Rtites meveaopem gitfogia seburfty mobtrfges igm

    mepaoyem gubaeir igm bogvegtfogia jorbes to meter gubaeir wir igm mfsbourihe

    proafjeritfog t`rouh` ibtfve cfaftiry t`reits or reissurigbes. Every postwir

    UR imcfgfstritfog `is irhuem t`it t`e preservitfog oj i sebure, reafilae gubaeir

    meterregt wis essegtfia to bogveyfgh t`e cessihe t`it gubaeir wir biggot lejouh`t. UR extegmem-meterregbe paemhes, igm issobfitem poafbfes sub` is jorwirm

    mepaoycegt oj jorbes igm bogvegtfogia cfaftiry siaes, reissurem ney iaafes ihifgst

    t`e geem to ibqufre gubaeir weipogs.9

    ]`e suc oj t`ese ejjorts, is weaa is t`e gituria tiloo ittib`em to t`e use oj gubaeir

    weipogs,

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    2/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    <

    eafcfgitfog oj gubaeir weipogs. Jour segfor stitesceg”Heorhe R`uatz, Xfaafic Terry,

    @egry Nfssfgher, igm Ric Gugg”lehig i bicpifhg fg

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    3/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    2

    ig iatergitfve to t`e GT] is t`e begtria eghfge oj haolia gubaeir rfsn remubtfog ejjorts

    (w`fae reijrcfgh t`e lisfb paemhes fgvoavem fg t`it treity). Core lroimay, ft ifcs

    to worn t`rouh` i hrimuia, fgjorcia serfes oj ihreecegts igm fgftfitfves rit`er t`ig

    t`rouh` ex`iustfve igm bocpre`egsfve treitfes. Ft paibes fts ecp`isfs og cuatfaiteria

    gubaeir t`reit remubtfog rit`er t`ig og t`e Ugftem Rtites-\ussfi jriceworn. Ft tines

    serfousay t`e hoia oj i woram wft`out gubaeir weipogs igm ittecpts to tine ney

    steps to aiy t`e hrougmworn jor t`it tfce eveg fg i perfom oj rfsfgh tegsfogs. Ft seens

    to fgtehrite rehfogia igm haolia booperitfve seburfty. Ft requfres perfomfb succft

    ceetfghs igm mecigms hreiter prforfty jor gubaeir seburfty ceisures. Igm, uatfciteay,

    ft fs got is cub` ilout ircs bogtroa per se is ft fs ilout streght`egfgh haolia rehfces

    oj booperitfve seburfty fg t`e gubaeir reiac”usfgh gubaeir rfsn remubtfog is i tooa

    jor procotfgh haolia booperitfve seburfty.

    Hrowfgh Gubaeir Mighers

    ]`e urhegby oj i gew ihegmi jor gubaeir seburfty stecs fg pirt jroc t`e jibt t`itgubaeir perfas ire rfsfgh ibross t`e loirm. ]`ese perfas righe jroc gubaeir terrorfsc

    to aoss oj ssfae citerfia or weipogs bogtroa to rehfogia gubaeir proafjeritfog. ]`e

    fcpressfve hifgs fg gubaeir sijety igm seburfty oltifgem fg pirt t`rouh` postwir

    fgstftutfogs ire it rfsn. Is ]`e Ebogocfst  cihizfge bogbaumem fg Cirb`

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    4/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    =

    buts fg UR tibtfbia gubaeir weipogs ippeir to `ive leeg fgmegfteay s`eavem.94 Lot`

    jorcer UR ojbfias igm Europeig hovergcegts ̀ ive suhhestem fg rebegt cogt`s t`it

    t`e opportugfty jor tibtfbia gubaeir remubtfogs `is pissem.

    It t`e sice tfce, mue to i boclfgitfog oj poaftfbia igm teb`goaohfbia meveaopcegts,

    t`e bogsegsus og gogproafjeritfog fs lreinfgh mowg icfm i gew mrfve jor gubaeir

    bipilfaftfes ly cigy stites. Tiua Lribneg ̀ is wrftteg oj i ‑sebogm gubaeir ihe–

    b`iribterfzem cost jugmicegtiaay ly i core cuatfpoair”igm uatfciteay core

    migherous”rehfce oj rehfogia gubaeir bogtests.99 ]`ere ire sfhgias t`it sub` i probess

    fs ecerhfgh. Tinfstig fs iareimy ojj igm ruggfgh wft` ig extegsfve comergfzitfog

    prohric t`it fs loostfgh t`e sfze igm aet`iafty oj fts gubaeir irsegia.9

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    5/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    5

    stroghay cotfvitem igm t`it ft fs eveg aess ilae to serve is i haolia fgstftutfog jor t`e

    bogtroa oj ssfae citerfia. Is oge expert `is bogbaumem, tregms fg gubaeir mfjjusfog

    iaoghsfme t`e FIEI‖s mecogstritem weingesses ceig t`it ‑t`e systec oj prevegtfgh

    t`e proafjeritfog oj faafbft gubaeir citerfias fs it rfsn oj boaaipse.– ]`e guclers ire

    stirn; letweeg 9608 igm core bafgh tfh`tay to gubaeir weipogs

    igm iclftfogs> core see gubaeir weipogs is sourbes oj peibe igm stilfafty rit`er t`ig

    migher igm bogfbt. Xft`fg t`e Ugftem Rtites, poaftfbia ittftumes ̀ ive s`fjtem iwiy

    jroc trust fg, igm support jor, booperitfve seburfty fgstrucegts afne ircs bogtroa

    igm towirm ugfaiteria ceisures afne gubaeir comergfzitfog. Ft fs got baeir t`it igy

    sfhgfbigt ircs bogtroa treity bouam cine ft t`rouh` t`e UR Regite tomiy.

    Jfgiaay, t`e rfsn oj t`e ibqufsftfog igm use oj gubaeir weipogs ly gog-stite ibtors,

    espebfiaay terrorfsts, fs per`ips is hreit is ft `is ever leeg. t`e teb`goaohy oj i brume locl fs got

    leyogm t`e bipilfafty oj i gog-stite hroup. Meterregbe ̀ is afttae paibe fg prevegtfgh

    sub` ittibns, w`fb` cust le meiat wft` t`rouh` megfia oj citerfias or teb`goaohy

    or t`e mfsruptfog oj terrorfst hroups.

    Jor iaa t`e `eapjua remubtfogs fg guclers oj mepaoyem gubaeir weipogs t`it ̀ ive

    tineg paibe, t`erejore, t`e gubaeir pfbture tomiy fs aoonfgh aess stilae igm bo`eregt

    t`ig ft mfm twegty yeirs iho. Fg t`e bogtext oj spreimfgh gubaeir bipilfaftfes, jriyfgh

    cuatfaiteria bogtroa rehfces, igm persfstegt or hrowfgh rehfogia tegsfogs igm rfviarfes,

    t`e potegtfia jor i gew rougm oj proafjeritfog fs very reia. ]`e rfsn oj virfous routes to

    gubaeir use”jroc esbiaitfog out oj aower-aevea bogfbts to ibbfmegtia or terrorfst use”

    fs hrowfgh, got rebemfgh. ]o protebt t`e seburfty oj iaa aeimfgh powers, i gew ihegmi

    jor gubaeir seburfty fs requfrem, oge aem ly t`e Ugftem Rtites w`fae eghihfgh t`e ejjorts

    oj ot`er cikor powers.

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    6/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    :

    ney eaecegts oj sebogm-strfne meterregbe, extegmem meterregbe, lfaiteria ircs bogtroa

    treitfes, igm cuatfaiteria gogproafjeritfog igm gubaeir seburfty rehfces”ciy le

    faa-suftem to ib`feve t`e gebessiry prohress hfveg tregms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec.

    Is t`e woram aeimer fg t`e ircs bogtroa iregi, t`e Ugftem Rtites cust sustifg igm

    lufam upog eib` oj t`ese jour eaecegts, lut it t`e sice tfce worn towirm i rejorcem

    pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty t`it big cine ceisurilae prohress fg settfgh t`e

    bogmftfogs jor mfsircicegt.

    ]`e Orfhfgs oj t`e Burregt Tirimfhc

    Murfgh t`e Boam Xir, gubaeir rfsn remubtfog wis pursuem fg i bogtext oj lfaiteria

    bocpetftfog letweeg two superpowers it i tfce w`eg postwir fgstftutfogiafzitfog

    wis stfaa meepegfgh igm t`e aeimfgh migher wis cikor wir letweeg t`e two lfh

    powers. Iat`ouh` ft seecs bougterfgtuftfve, Boam Xir gubaeir seburfty ejjorts reebtem

    i powerjua cutuia ugmerstigmfgh oj s`irem fgterests. ]`e bogsegsus toon tfce to

    ecerhe, wis jir jroc ugfversia, igm t`reitegem to boaaipse it cigy pofgts. Vet, ly t`eaite 96:4s, Xis`fghtog igm Cosbow `im baeiray rebohgfzem t`e geem to bogtroa gubaeir

    mighers igm `im lufat fcportigt fgstftutfogs to ibt og t`fs reiafzitfog”ircs bogtroa

    mepirtcegts igm ihegbfes, treitfes, succfts, ]ribn < mfiaohues, reseirb` orhigfzitfogs

    mevotem to gubaeir citters. ]`e resuat, ihifg gotwft`stigmfgh cigy mfsputes igm

    b`iaaeghes iaogh t`e wiy, wis to gorciafze t`e cutuia support jor gubaeir seburfty

    t`rouh` bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures, afcfts to potegtfiaay mestilfafzfgh cfssfae

    mejegses, igm remubtfogs fg t`e guclers igm, evegtuiaay, iaert aeveas oj gubaeir

    irsegias.

    ]`fs exfstfgh pirimfhc `is leeg airheay ejjebtfve, lut ft ecerhem wft`fg, igm wismesfhgem to ceet t`e bogmftfogs oj, i very spebfb fgtergitfogia ormer. Is t`it ormer

    hfves wiy to gew pittergs fg fgtergitfogia poaftfbs, our ugmerstigmfgh oj gubaeir

    seburfty cust evoave.

    ]`e Fgstftutfogs oj Gubaeir Reburfty 

    ]`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi, is weaa is ot`er gubaeir powers, ̀ ive tineg severia

    spebfb ivegues to eg`igbfgh gubaeir seburfty, reebtfgh lot` sfmes oj i two-tribn

    poafby; gubaeir afcftitfog igm restrifgt og t`e oge ̀ igm igm bremflae meterregbe og

    t`e ot`er. ]`ese ceb`igfscs `ive leeg lisem og i strogh segse oj s`irem jite igm

    boaaebtfve seburfty igm ̀ ive mecogstrilay ̀ eapem to cifgtifg peibe. ]ohet`er, t`fs

    boclfgitfog oj meterregt pribtfbes igm ircs bogtroa icougts to w`it big le biaaem t`e

    exfstfgh pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty. Over tfce, ft `is hrowg to fgbaume jour aeimfgh

    bocpogegts; provfmfgh stritehfb stilfafty t`rouh` meterregbe> extegmfgh t`e meterregt

    ejjebt oj gubaeir weipogs to t`e prevegtfog oj ot`er jorcs oj bogfbt> bogtroaafgh

    t`e guclers, strubtures, igm iaert rites oj gubaeir jorbes ly ceigs oj metifaem

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    7/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    8

    lfaiteria treitfes> igm bogstrifgfgh t`e spreim oj gubaeir weipogs igm ibbess to t`efr

    bocpogegts t`rouh` ex`iustfve cuatfaiteria ihreecegts.

    ]`e lemrobn fgstftutfog oj gubaeir seburfty `is leeg t`e `ilft igm pribtfbe oj stritehfb

    meterregbe, prfcirfay letweeg t`e Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog (igm t`eg

    \ussfi).

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    8/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    0

    i gucler oj wiys, jroc prevegtfgh out-oj-bogtroa ircs ribes to afcftfgh t`e cost

    mestilfafzfgh types oj weipogs. Ter`ips t`e cost sfhgfbigt ejjebt oj t`e treity probess

    `is leeg to segm i baeir sfhgia t`it lot` sfmes were boccfttem to ivofmfgh uglrfmaem

    gubaeir bocpetftfog igm vfewem t`efr fgterests is lefgh servem ly boaailoritfve

    ircs bogtroa. ]`e cere probess oj mfiaohue igm gehotfitfogs ̀ eapem joster i gorc oj

    booperitfve seburfty w`ose `ilfts igm probesses oj bogsuatitfog previfaem eveg murfgh

    tegse perfoms oj Boam Xir `ostfafty.

    Bogmegbe-lufamfgh igm brfsfs-cigihecegt systecs, teb`gfques, igm ihreecegts ̀ ive

    servem is ig fcportigt pirt oj t`fs UR-\ussfig ejjort. Exicpaes oj sub` bogmegbe-

    lufamfgh ceisures fgbaume ihreecegts igm boccftcegts provfmfgh trigspiregby,

    requfrfgh prfor gotfbitfog oj exerbfses, igm ojjerfgh vegues jor rehuair or brfsfs

    boccugfbitfogs.

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    9/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    6

    t`rouh` t`e bipilfafty igm reafilfafty oj gubaeir irsegias igm mobtrfges”prohrics to

    eg`igbe meterregbe ly neepfgh weipogs sebure igm powerjua. ]`e ot`er tribn bogsfsts

    oj ejjorts to remube, bogstrifg, or eafcfgite w`oae bitehorfes oj sub` weipogs”

    ircs bogtroa probesses igm ihreecegts. ]`e boclfgitfog oj t`ese two socew`it

    bogtrimfbtory tribns icougtem to i pirimoxfbia ihegmi, regfgh igm eailoritfgh

    gubaeir bipilfaftfes eveg is lot` sfmes souh`t to afcft igm uatfciteay eafcfgite t`ec.

    Lut t`e two-sfmem ipproib` reebtem i ney ispebt oj woram poaftfbs; i liaigbe letweeg

    rfviary igm s`irem fgterests. Cost fcportigt, lroimay speinfgh, fs t`it ft wornem.

    Lut oge rfsn oj sub` ig ipproib` wis iawiys t`it t`e two tribns wouam evegtuiaay

    boaafme fg jugmicegtia wiys. Trohrics to refgjorbe meterregbe bouam mfsbremft ircs

    bogtroa ceisures, igm pooray mesfhgem rfsn remubtfog ceisures bouam ugmercfge

    meterregbe. Ig ilsoaute go-rst-use paemhe, jor exicpae, wouam irhuilay `ive `eapem

    fsoaite t`e roae oj gubaeir weipogs”lut wouam iaso `ive bocpafbitem extegmem

    meterregbe igm possflay bogtrflutem to proafjeritfog. Cost Boam Xir gubaeir melites

    were ilout t`fs bais` oj fcperitfves, fg oge wiy or igot`er, igm t`e subbess oj t`e

    gubaeir seburfty pirimfhc reebtem is cub` is igyt`fgh ease i wfaafghgess igm

    ipprebfitfog og lot` sfmes to eghihe fg i reburregt, baever `ircogfzfgh oj t`e two

    `iaves oj t`e ipproib`. Lut sub` i tegtitfve, oghofgh equfaflrfuc bouam ogay le

    cifgtifgem lebiuse oj i cutuia ipprebfitfog oj t`e mighers fg Xis`fghtog igm

    Cosbow igm i kofgt boccftcegt to t`e subbess oj t`e pirimfhc. ]regms fg woram

    poaftfbs tomiy t`reiteg to ugmercfge t`e stritehfb igm poaftfbia lisfs jor t`fs

    cutuia ugmerstigmfgh, t`us breitfgh bogmftfogs ugmer w`fb` t`e `fh`-wfre ibt

    oj liaigbfgh ibtfve meterregbe igm ircs remubtfogs wfaa leboce ugsustifgilae.

    ]`e Ziaue oj Fgstftutfogs

    ]o ipprebfite t`efr b`iribter igm viaue, ft fs fcportigt to see t`e fgstftutfogs oj t`e

    exfstfgh pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty fg t`e bogtext oj airher postwir meveaopcegts.

    Fg fts reafigbe og boaaebtfve seburfty fgstftutfogs to preserve peibe, t`e gubaeir

    rfsn remubtfog ihegmi `is reebtem i tregm oj haolia fgstftutfogiafzitfog t`it `is

    ittecptem, w`ere possflae, to lufam boccugftfes oj s`irem fgterests to procote

    cutuia seburfty.

    ]`ere fs i tegmegby to t`fgn oj fgtergitfogia fgstftutfogs is sygogycous wft`

    orhigfzitfogs. ]o le sure, cigy ney eaecegts oj t`e postwir ormer ̀ ivetineg orhigfzitfogia jorc, jroc t`e Ugftem Gitfogs to t`e Fgtergitfogia Cogetiry

    Jugm to rehfogia hroups igm iaafigbes afne t`e Europeig Ugfog igm GI]O. Lut fg

    t`e piraigbe oj poaftfbia sbfegbe, t`e terc ‑fgstftutfogs– rejers to i cub` lroimer

    bogbept”i set oj expafbft or fcpafbft ‑prfgbfpaes, gorcs, ruaes, igm mebfsfog-cinfgh

    probemures irougm w`fb` ibtors‖ expebtitfogs bogverhe fg i hfveg fssue-irei.–

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    10/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    94

    oj stites igm aeimers fg fgtergitfogia poaftfbs igm `eap s`ipe mebfsfogs igm le`ivfor.

    Exicpaes fgbaume t`e jougmitfogia prfgbfpaes oj stite soverefhgty, t`e spebfb gorc oj

    mfpaocitfb fccugfty, virfous gigbfia pribtfbes igm trime rehuaitfogs t`it ugmerafe

    t`e haolia lignfgh igm gigbfia systec, ihreecegts og stigmirms igm pribtfbes fg

    teb`gfbia eams, igm t`e rfsfgh tiloo ihifgst ugprovonem fgvisfogs t`it `is leeg

    tercem t`e terrftorfia fgtehrfty gorc.24

    ]`ere fs i cissfve afteriture og fgstftutfogs igm i afveay melite ilout t`e mehree to

    w`fb` t`ey `ive leeg or big le ejjebtfve fg bogstrifgfgh stite le`ivfor.29 ]`e ivifailae

    evfmegbe, it aeist fg t`e gubaeir reiac, pofgts to i quiafem lut stfaa fcportigt

    `ypot`esfs; t`it ecerhfgh fgstftutfogs `ive leeg fcportigt fg bogstrifgfgh stite le`ivfor

    igm provfmfgh ceb`igfscs jor boormfgitem ibtfog w`eg stites rebohgfze s`irem fgterests. 

    Fgstftutfogs big breite expebtitfogs, jorucs, igm aogh-terc pribtfbes t`it persuime

    stites igm gog-stite ibtors t`it t`efr fgterests ire lest servem t`rouh` kofgt igm

    bogstrifgem ibtfog rit`er t`ig ugfaiteria igm ihhressfve seburfty-seenfgh. ]o t`e extegt

    t`it stites fgtergiafze t`ese aessogs, t`ey wfaa turg to fgstftutfogs jor egtfreay seas`

    reisogs”to procote t`efr owg seburfty”lut mo so fg wiys t`it imcft t`e geem to

    orhigfze jor seburfty fg i booperitfve jis`fog. Fgstftutfogs provfme opportugftfes

    to boormfgite fgterests, resoave bogfbts w`eg boormfgitfog jifas, igm fgfbt

    pugfs`cegts jor ibtors w`o vfoaite ecerhfgh gorcs fg laitigt igm olvfous wiys.

    ]`ere ire cigy exicpaes oj t`fs mygicfb it worn, igm t`ey imm up to persuisfve

    evfmegbe t`it postwir fgstftutfogs `ive paiyem i sulstigtfia roae fg bogstrifgfgh

    igm b`iggeafgh le`ivfor igm provfmfgh t`e lisfs jor boaaebtfve ibtfog. Exicpaes

    righe jroc fgtergitfogia trime ibborms igm gigbfia igm lignfgh stigmirms to

    fgtergitfogia stigmirms fg i mozeg teb`gfbia igm sbfegtfb eams2

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    11/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

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    Iaa oj t`ese jugbtfogs ire og mfspaiy fg t`e fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty,

    fgbaumfgh t`e cifgtegigbe oj gubaeir meterregbe is weaa is t`e lfaiteria ibborms igm

    ugmerstigmfghs t`it ̀ ive irfseg letweeg Xis`fghtog igm Cosbow igm t`e sulsequegt

    cuatfaiteria jorcs. Cikor wir ̀ is leeg nept out oj t`e reiac oj pribtfbia bogsfmeritfog

    ly t`e rfsn oj gubaeir esbiaitfog igm t`e preservitfog oj sebogm-strfne stilfafty. ]`fs

    reebts t`e sort oj ‑utfafty jugbtfog comfbitfog– rejerrem to ilove; gubaeir weipogs

    igm t`efr issobfitem meterregt sb`eces ̀ ive bogstrifgem t`e wir-cinfgh optfogs

    ivifailae to stites igm aeimers. It t`e sice tfce, t`e gorc oj gubaeir remubtfog igm

    evegtuia mfsircicegt ̀ is leeg breitem igm imvigbem t`rouh` stitecegts, treitfes,

    igm pribtfbes. ]`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi, igm fgbreisfghay ot`er stites, ̀ ive leeg

    mriwg fgto boaailoritfve probesses to eg`igbe gubaeir seburfty> soce eaecegts oj

    t`e exfstfgh pirimfhc `ive provfmem riaayfgh pofgts jor mocestfb fgterests fg virfous

    bougtrfes metercfgem to remube gubaeir mighers. Igm t`e fgstftutfogs ̀ ive procotem

    ‑gubaeir aeirgfgh– t`it `is `eapem to estilafs` t`e mighers oj gubaeir citerfia igm

    weipogs igm breitem i haolia gorc oj rfsn remubtfog.

    Fg t`ese igm ot`er wiys, t`e exfstfgh roster oj gubaeir rfsn remubtfog egmeivors `is

    iaterem t`e bogtext oj fgtergitfogia poaftfbs igm `eapem to preserve gubaeir peibe. Fg

    so mofgh, fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty paiyem ig fcportigt sebogmiry jugbtfog

    oj bogtrflutfgh to t`e airher probess oj postwir fgstftutfogiafzitfog t`it ̀ is paigtem

    t`e tegtitfve seems oj i core bocpaete igm rolust haolia sobfety. ]`e hreit migher

    tomiy fs t`it powerjua tregms fg woram poaftfbs t`reiteg to reverse t`fs prohress ly

    paibfgh it rfsn t`e fguegbe, bremflfafty, igm aehftfciby oj t`e fgstftutfogs oj t`e

    burregt gubaeir pirimfhc.

     I Rystec fg Terfa

    ]omiy, t`ose w`o wouam procote gubaeir seburfty jibe i two-pirt b`iaaeghe. ]`e rst

    fs t`it tregms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire wornfgh to ugmercfge t`e fgstftutfogs

    oj gubaeir seburfty so pifgstinfghay erebtem over t`e aist `iaj-begtury. Igm t`e sebogm

    fs t`it cereay pus`fgh libn og t`fs migher wft`fg t`e jriceworn oj t`e burregt

    pirimfhc fs got afneay to worn. Lebiuse oj soce oj t`ose sice tregms, t`e essegtfia

    tooas fg t`e tooalox oj gubaeir seburfty wfaa `ive to le reprforftfzem igm, fg soce

    bises, repaibem outrfh`t.

    Ecerhfgh ]regms fg Xoram Toaftfbs

    Zirfous tregms ire wornfgh to jis`fog i gew fgtergitfogia ormer out oj t`e post-

    Boam Xir perfom oj UR `ehecogy. ]ineg tohet`er t`ey pofgt to i sfghae overrfmfgh

    migher; t`it t`e fgbocpaete lut lroimay ihreem gorcs igm fgstftutfogs oj t`e postwir

    systec bouam boaaipse fgto rufgous mfsormer igm bogfbt.20 Fg i powerjua rebegt essiy,

    Bougbfa og Jorefhg \eaitfogs Tresfmegt \fb`irm @iiss `is tercem t`fs tregm ‑t`e

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    12/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    9<

    ugriveafgh.– @iiss irhues t`it ‑t`e liaigbe letweeg ormer igm mfsormer fs s`fjtfgh

    towirm t`e aitter.–26 ]`e fgtergitfogia systec seecs to ̀ ive reib`em i tfppfgh pofgt,

    wft` cigy jibtors t`reitegfgh to ugmercfge s`irem fgterests igm gorcs igm hegerite

    i cub` core b`iotfb hegeriafzem rfviary.=4

    ]`ese mighers ire ecerhfgh ihifgst i core `opejua aogh-terc libnmrop oj meepegfgh

    fgtermepegmegbfes igm s`irem fgterests bourtesy oj haoliafzitfog igm reaitem tregms.

    Tirt oj t`e jorbe le`fgm t`e hrowfgh fgstftutfogiafzitfog oj woram poaftfbs `is leeg

    t`e ecerhegbe oj eaecegts oj i true fgtergitfogia sobfety is stites igm peopaes ire

    afgnem core baoseay ly trime, fgjorcitfog, trivea, igm iwiregess. ]`fs getworn oj

    fgtermepegmegbe ̀ is b`ighem t`e bogtext jor stite biabuaitfog oj fgterests igm ̀ is

    sulstigtfiaay comfem t`e wiys fg w`fb` hreit powers bouam eghihe fg rfviary.

    Fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty `ive lufat og t`fs lroim reiafty”lut t`e prohress

    oj haoliafzitfog igm issobfitem bogbepts oj s`irem fgterests fs gow t`reitegem ly

    i gucler oj powerjua mestilfafzfgh tregms.

    Irhuilay t`e cost jugmicegtia ecerhfgh reiafty fs t`e lurheogfgh iclftfogs igm

    bocpetftfve fgstfgbts og t`e pirt oj cigy aeimfgh stites. \ussfi igm B`fgi ire t`e

    cost olvfous, lut cigy rehfogia powers ire mecigmfgh t`efr rfh`tjua paibe fg i post-

    `ehecogfb ormer. ]urney, Lrizfa, Frig, eveg Kipig igm Hercigy ire seenfgh core

    fguegtfia rehfogia roaes, igm fg soce bises”espebfiaay t`ose oj \ussfi igm B`fgi”

    iclftfogs ire lefgh expressem fg ihhressfve, eveg imvegturfstfb, wiys. ]`e resuat fs ig

    eri oj meepay fgtegsfjyfgh cuatfaiteria rfviary.=9 ]`fs tregm rfsns boaafsfogs lot` haolia

    (t`e Ugftem Rtites versus B`fgi) igm rehfogia (i perfom oj regewem fgtegse bocpetftfog

    letweeg Fgmfi igm Tinfstig).=

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    13/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    92

    lefgh jortfem ly boaaebtfve fgstftutfogs. Fg cigy bises t`ey rejuse to le mfrebtem ly

    stites igm mrfve bogfbts to `fh`er aeveas oj tegsfog igm vfoaegbe. I aeimfgh exicpae

    tomiy fs t`e overaippfgh boaaebtfog oj rimfbia hroups lisem fg Tinfstig w`fb` `ive

    lehug to spfg out oj bogtroa oj t`e stite igm w`fb`”fg issiuats afne t`e hruesoce

    Cuclif operitfog oj

  • 8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr

    14/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    9=

    rfsfgh stite-to-stite tegsfogs. Fmegtfty-seenfgh fg paibes afne \ussfi igm B`fgi fs

    exiberlitfgh t`efr ihhressfve, hrfevigbe-jueaem urhe to b`iaaeghe t`e UR-aem woram

    ormer. ]`e sourbes oj tegsfog, jrihcegtitfog, igm b`ios fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire

    lebocfgh core potegt igm ire fgtersebtfgh fg migherous wiys. Is i resuat, ‑stritehfb

    fgstilfafty fs egmecfb– to t`e ecerhfgh systec, B. Miae Xiatog igm Boafg Hriy irhue

    fg i

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    15/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    95

    ]`e ecerhfgh eri t`reitegs to ugmercfge eib` oj t`ese b`iribterfstfbs fg turg,

    breitfgh t`e geem jor i gew ihegmi jor gubaeir seburfty.

    •  Lurheogfgh rfviary ugmercfges trust igm igy segse oj s`irem fgterests igm breites

     hrowfgh seburfty jeirs t`it procote rit`er t`ig remube t`e perbefvem viaues oj gubaeir

    weipogs. X`et`er fg t`e bogtext oj UR or iaafem reaitfogs wft` \ussfi or B`fgi,

    Fgmfi-Tinfstig reaitfogs, or ot`er reaitfogs`fps, t`e rfviary igm bocpetftfog

    b`iribterfstfb oj t`e ecerhfgh eri ire ugmercfgfgh t`e potegtfia jor booperitfve

    seburfty fgstftutfogs. Oge lisfb t`ece oj t`e burregt pirimfhc `is leeg t`it,

    gotwft`stigmfgh ejjorts to neep irsegias comerg igm reafilae, gubaeir weipogs

    wouam le hrimuiaay meviauem igm t`efr potegtfia use seeg is faaehftfcite ugmer

    iacost igy bfrbucstigbe. ]`fs ittftume seecs to le aosfgh `oam oj ney stites.

    • Hrowfgh tegsfogs bocpafbite extegmem meterregbe igm fgbreise t`e mecigms og UR

    bremflfafty, t`us exiberlitfgh t`e tegsfogs letweeg gubaeir prepiremgess igm

    gubaeir lufam-mowg. ]`e tibft lirhifg oj t`e Boam Xir”

    gubaeir comergfzitfog

    iaoghsfme ircs bogtroa”fs ugafneay to le ibbeptem fg t`e sice wiy fg ig eri

    w`eg cfstrust igm bogspfriby t`eorfes mocfgite t`e perbeptfogs oj soce ney

    stites. Comergfzitfog ejjorts ire afneay to le seeg is fgbreisfghay t`reitegfgh,

    rfsnfgh i cuatfpoair haolia ircs ribe.

    • Gitfogiafstfb fmegtfty-seenfgh ugmercfges t`e bogtext jor gubaeir stilfafty. Ft big `ive

    t`fs ejjebt fg i gucler oj wiys; ly aeimfgh stites to hrfp gubaeir weipogs core

    tfh`tay> ly remubfgh t`e wfaafghgess to ihree to fgtrusfve verfbitfog ceisures>

    igm ly biaafgh fgto questfog t`e ritfogiafst issucptfogs oj baissfbia meterregbe

    t`eory.

    •  I cuatfaiteria bogtext cines gubaeir lirhifgs cub` core bocpaex. Gubaeir rfsn

    remubtfog `is iareimy irrfvem it i stihe w`ere juture ibborms wfaa `ive to eghihe

    cigy stites, igm t`e wfamay viryfgh fgterests igm sourbes oj mesfre jor gubaeir

    weipogs wfaa cine jor i core b`irhem igm b`iaaeghfgh rfsn remubtfog probess. Is

    ig exicpae, t`e gubaeir rfviary letweeg Fgmfi igm Tinfstig fs jir aess bogstrifgem

    or sulkebt to rehuair fgteribtfog igm gehotfitfogs t`ig wis t`e UR-Rovfet gubaeir

    reaitfogs`fp. Fg t`e ceigtfce, t`e bore lirhifg it t`e `eirt oj t`e GT]”i

    mfvfsfog letweeg gubaeir ̀ ives igm ̀ ive-gots wft` t`e procfse oj gubaeir power

    to t`ose w`o esb`ew weipogs”ciy le ugtegilae fg i woram oj i mozeg or core

    stites t`it bogsfmer t`ecseaves aeimfgh powers. Core igm core, t`e ‑t`ree pfaairs–

    oj t`e GT] ipproib` ire seeg to le cutuiaay bigbeaafgh rit`er t`ig refgjorbfgh.=:

    • Gogtrimftfogia bogfbt fs laurrfgh t`e afges letweeg peibe igm wir igm ugmercfgfgh

    t`e esbiaitory relreins oj t`e gubaeir eri. Fg breitfgh i geir-perpetuia jorc oj

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    16/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog

    9:

    oghofgh bogfbt, t`ese teb`gfques ire iaterfgh t`e egvfrogcegt jor gubaeir

    meterregbe. ]`e powerjua meterregt bipibfty oj gubaeir weipogs wfaa got”is we

    iareimy see”prevegt stites jroc eghihfgh fg t`ese hriy-irei bogfbts, lebiuse

    t`ey leafeve t`e esbiaitory rfsns ire ugmer bogtroa. Is Lribneg recfgms us,

    coreover, gogtrimftfogia jorcs oj ihhressfog big ecpaoy iclfhuous, afcftem

    gubaeir t`reits it t`e aow egm oj t`e esbiaitfog spebtruc”

    iggougbfgh i gubaeir

    iaert, lreinfgh ig ircs bogtroa treity, seaafgh migherous gubaeir teb`goaohfes.=8 

    ]`e mfvfmfgh afge letweeg stritehfb bogfbt igm gogstritehfb bogfbt fs lebocfgh

    laurrem, wft` hreit esbiaitory potegtfia.

    • ]`e hrowfgh roae oj gog-stite ibtors fs bocpafbitfgh t`e pfbture jor meterregbe igm

    rfsn remubtfog. ]`e exfstfgh gubaeir pirimfhc ecerhem murfgh i perfom w`eg

    gitfog-stites were ly jir t`e mocfgigt ibtors og t`e fgtergitfogia sbege. Gog-

    stite ibtors ̀ ive aogh leeg bitiaysts oj ̀ fstory, is wft` t`e Rerlfig gitfogiafst

    orhigfzitfogs t`it orhigfzem t`e ississfgitfog oj Irb`mune Jrigz Jermfgigm. Lut

    t`e reaitfve liaigbe fg power, fguegbe, igm mebfsfve iut`orfty to s`ipe evegts

    fs s`fjtfgh, wft` stites aosfgh core power iaa t`e tfce. ]`fs bocpafbitem gew

    aigmsbipe cines t`e roae oj gubaeir meterregbe cub` core b`igby; gog-stite

    ibtors hegeriaay mo got see ft is i bremflae t`reit.

    ]`e suc totia oj t`ese ejjebts fs to biaa fgto questfog t`e ilfafty oj exfstfgh gubaeir

    seburfty rehfces to preserve gubaeir seburfty or eveg cifgtifg t`e gubaeir tiloo,

    irhuilay t`e cost prebfous ibbocpafs`cegt oj t`e postwir eri. UR-\ussfig ircs

    bogtroa, jor exicpae, fs stiaaem, igm afneay to recifg so jor t`e fgmegfte juture.

    ]`e ‑ojbfia– ircs bogtroa systec, Lribneg pofgts out, ‑fs gow so bocpaex t`it ft fs

    mfjbuat to ibbocpafs` gew hoias, or to tine ircs bogtroa to t`e gext aevea.–=0 Jor i

    virfety oj reisogs”cost jugmicegtiaay \ussfi‖s baose ittib`cegt to t`e meterregt

    viaue oj fts gubaeir irsegia igm t`e hegeriaay cfserilae stite oj UR-\ussfig reaitfogs”

    `opes jor immftfogia jorcia or fgjorcia cutuia remubtfogs `ive leeg mis`em igm

    exfstfgh treitfes ire fg keopirmy.

    It t`e sice tfce, tregms fg t`e UR mocestfb bogtext potegtfiaay exiberlite t`ese

    lirrfers to gubaeir rfsn remubtfog. Rupport jor cuatfaiteria fgstftutfogs `is irhuilay `ft

    i post-Boam Xir aow. Ruspfbfogs oj ot`er cikor powers, espebfiaay B`fgi igm \ussfi,

    ire hrowfgh ripfmay igm support jor ircs bogtroa ceisures oj igy nfgm `is wigem.

    ]`e post-Boam Xir `ogeycoog oj booperitfve seburfty `is hfveg wiy to i perbeptfog

    oj i cub` core bocpetftfve igm ̀ ostfae eri, igm igy presfmegt wfaa `ive i cub` core

    mfjbuat tfce pus`fgh t`rouh` gew boaailoritfve ceisures. ]`e ecp`isfs fs og gubaeir

    comergfzitfog is t`e route to eg`igbem seburfty, igm core stites ire rejerrfgh bisuiaay

    to aowerem t`res`oams jor gubaeir use.

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    17/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

    98

    Ter`ips t`e sfghae cost fcportigt fgsfh`t fg t`e bogstrubtfog oj i gew ihegmi to

    bogtroa gubaeir rfsns fs t`it t`e igswer to t`ese ecerhfgh mighers moes got sfcpay

    afe fg pourfgh core juea fgto exfstfgh ceb`igfscs jor gubaeir seburfty.=6 Lfaiteria

    treitfes ire i poaftfbia gog-stirter, igm \ussfi fs ugfgterestem fg ihreecegts t`it

    wouam bogstrifg fts gubaeir meterregt. Cereay reijrcfgh t`e viaue oj t`e essegtfia

    lirhifg resfmegt fg t`e GT] wfaa got persuime i hrowfgh b`orus oj vofbes sneptfbia

    oj t`e treity‖s baifc t`it gubaeir restrifgt recifgs t`e lest optfog. Lut it t`e sice

    tfce, loostfgh fgvestcegts fg comergfzem meterregt jorbes, fj ugmertineg outsfme

    t`e bogtext oj strogh fgstftutfogs jor boaaebtfve ipproib`es to gubaeir seburfty, wfaa

    le core afneay to provone gew tegsfogs t`ig to refgjorbe meterregbe> igm loasterfgh

    extegmem meterregbe wfaa got `ive t`e mesfrem ejjebt fg ig eri oj gitfogiafst pissfog

    igm brfsfs-provonfgh ly gog-stite ibtors.

    ]regms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire ugmercfgfgh eib` oj t`e jour lisfb eaecegts

    oj t`e burregt pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty; stritehfb stilfafty t`rouh` ejjebtfve

    meterregbe> extegmem meterregbe> lfaiteria treitfes igm bogstrifgts> igm jorcia

    cuatfaiteria ihreecegts. Goge ippeirs to ojjer i jeisflae, poaftfbiaay procfsfgh route

    jorwirm to remube gubaeir mighers. Biaas jor t`e eafcfgitfog oj gubaeir weipogs,

    or eveg t`efr mristfb remubtfog fg guclers or iaert aeveas, cust bogjrogt t`fs

    ugbocjortilae jibt; t`e trimftfogia routes to t`ese hoias ire airheay laobnem ojj, igm

    afneay to recifg so jor soce tfce to boce. ]`e questfog gow fs w`it revfsem ihegmi

    jor gubaeir seburfty bouam opeg up gew ivegues to prohress fg t`e cemfuc terc

    eveg hfveg t`e bogstrifgts oj t`e ecerhfgh fgtergitfogia egvfrogcegt.

     I Gew Ihegmi jor Gubaeir Reburfty

    ]`e tisn lejore us fs t`erejore baeir, fj strewg wft` mfaeccis. Hfveg t`e potegtfia jor

    rfsfgh mighers fg t`e eam oj gubaeir seburfty, t`e Ugftem Rtites cust meveaop igm aeim

    i gew ejjort to remube gubaeir rfsns, lut oge t`it sulstigtfiaay comfes t`e exfstfgh

    pirimfhc. ]`e gew prohric cust seen lot` to bogtroa s`ort-terc gubaeir mighers

    t`it ippeir to le hrowfgh sulstigtfiaay igm to aiy t`e aogh-terc jougmitfogs jor meep

    remubtfogs igm evegtuia iloaftfog. Igm ft cust mo t`fs fg i poaftfbia bafcite t`it fs

    core `ostfae to gubaeir ircs bogtroa t`ig it igy tfce sfgbe t`e egm oj t`e Boam Xir”

    igm, fgmeem, sfgbe t`e cfm-9604s.

    Fg ormer to recifg jeisflae igm reaevigt to t`e seburfty b`iaaeghes oj t`e eri mesbrflemilove, i gew ipproib` wouam ippeir to requfre severia b`iribterfstfbs. Ft cust jobus

    og gog-stite t`reits is cub` is stite irsegias, fg ormer to meia wft` t`e aeimfgh

    perbefvem t`reits oj citerfia bogtroa igm terrorfst use. Ft cust le bipilae oj persuimfgh

    fgbreisfghay boclitfve rfvias to booperite og baeiray s`irem fgterests rit`er t`ig

    lefgh lisem og i segse oj trust igm kofgt breitfog oj ig ihreem juture. Ft cust iaso

    rest outsfme t`e jriceworn oj ex`iustfve lfaiteria or cuatfaiteria treitfes, w`fb` ire

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    90

    ugafneay to le fg t`e birms jor soce tfce. Igm giaay, igy gew fgftfitfve s`ouam ifc it

    i lroim bogbept oj stritehfb stilfafty, i core ̀ oafstfb gotfog t`ig sebogm-strfne stilfafty

    t`it egbocpisses iaa t`e wiys fg w`fb` stites bouam boce to wir”i vfsfog t`it tines

    gubaeir weipogs is sycptocitfb oj, got respogsflae jor, ugmerayfgh tegsfogs.54 ]`e

    Ugftem Rtites tomiy proposes to spegm `ugmrems oj lfaafogs oj moaairs to reviafmite w`it

    fs essegtfiaay i very afcftem megftfog oj sebogm-strfne stilfafty.59 Lut ft fs got baeir t`it

    igy stites stfaa `ive ig fgterest fg t`it jorc oj gubaeir stilfafty, or t`it t`e juaa sbope

    oj t`ese fgvestcegts fs geemem to reviafmite ft.

    ]o ceet t`ese brfterfi igm remube gubaeir mighers, t`fs report imvobites i two-

    proghem gubaeir fgftfitfve jor t`e gext ve yeirs t`it lufams og exfstfgh ihreecegts

    igm probesses. ]`e stritehy `is i s`ort-terc igm i cemfuc-terc bocpogegt. Fg t`e

    s`ort terc, rebohgfzfgh t`e espebfiaay sfhgfbigt mighers oj heopoaftfbia `ostfafty

    igm regewem gubaeir bocpetftfog irfsfgh letweeg t`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi lut

    iaso bohgfzigt t`it t`e lfaiteria b`iggea fs socew`it stiaaem, ft ifcs to cftfhite

    potegtfia gubaeir cfsbiabuaitfog wft` ig fgjorcia serfes oj mfiaohues icogh iaa

    estilafs`em gubaeir powers to remube aiugb`-og-wirgfgh rfsns is weaa is to soafmfjy

    bogmegbe-lufamfgh igm brfsfs-respogse probemures. Fg t`e cemfuc terc, ft proposes

    i regewem igm comfem ejjort to bogtroa mighers oj gubaeir spreim igm gog-stite

    use t`rouh` t`e trigspiregby igm bogtroa oj ssfae citerfias.

    ]`e R`ort ]erc; Lufamfgh Bogjfmegbe igm Ivofmfgh Cfsbiabuaitfog

    Roce oj t`e cost sfhgfbigt rfsns fg t`e burregt stritehfb bogtext reaite to potegtfia

    esbiaitfog igm bogfbt t`rouh` cfsbiabuaitfog it i tfce oj rfsfgh tegsfogs igm

    bocpetftfog. (]`fs fs got t`e sice is t`e rfsn oj pureay ibbfmegtia or ugiut`orfzemaiugb`, w`fb` recifgs reaitfveay aow eveg hfveg rfsfgh tegsfogs.) Is we `ive seeg, t`e

    fgbegtfves to ivofm wir recifg very `fh`> airhe-sbiae bogfbt bocfgh ilout t`rouh`

    bogsbfous biabuaitfog recifgs very ugafneay. Lut t`rouh` i boclfgitfog oj hegeriafzem

    rfviary, t`e exiberlitfgh fguegbe oj gitfogiafsc, igm t`e esbiaitory ejjebt oj hriy-irei

    bogfbt, t`e migher oj ig ugfgtegtfogia esbiaitfog fgto gubaeir use fs per`ips hreiter

    tomiy t`ig it igy tfce sfgbe t`e cfm-9604s. Ibbormfgh to i virfety oj opeg sourbe

    ibbougts, UR igm \ussfig gubaeir irsegias recifg it `fh` aeveas oj aiugb` reimfgess,

    igm t`e potegtfia jor wir t`rouh` esbiaitfog or cfsperbeptfog recifgs reia.5

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    96

    to virfous gubaeir fssues. ]`ey bogmubt extegsfve verfbitfog probesses ittegmigt to

    t`e stritehfb ircs remubtfog treitfes fg jorbe. ]`e Booperitfve ]`reit \emubtfog

    prohric provfmem t`e lisfs jor mfiaohues, gotfbitfogs oj cfssfae aiugb`es, fgjorcitfog

    exb`ighe, igm fgspebtfogs og gubaeir fssues. Over t`e yeirs, virfous `otafges, kofgt rfsn

    remubtfog begters, cfaftiry-to-cfaftiry exb`ighes, igm ot`er ejjorts ̀ ive egbourihem

    ugmerstigmfgh igm ojjerem ceb`igfscs to ivofm ugwigtem esbiaitfog.

    ]`e rst bocpogegt oj i gew gubaeir ihegmi, t`eg, bouam le to lufam og t`ese

    ihreecegts wft` i serfes oj fgftfitfves mesfhgem to eg`igbe cutuia trust, trigspiregby,

    igm bogmegbe fg meterregbe. ]`e fgftfitfve wouam icougt to i rekuvegitfog oj

    t`e probess to lufam bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures t`it remube t`e rfsn oj gubaeir

    aiugb` ly cfsbiabuaitfog or ugfgtegmem esbiaitfog. ]`ey wouam got le lufat jroc

    sbritb`, fg pirt lebiuse t`e purpose oj t`fs rst p`ise fs to sustifg is cub` trust igm

    trigspiregby is possflae fg ig fgbreisfghay tegse bogtext. ]`e hoia fs ripfm prohress

    lufamfgh og estilafs`em ceb`igfscs, got mriwg-out tians og gew fmeis, lut wft` i

    core cuatfaiteria, hrimuia, fgjorcia, igm pulafb/prfvite b`iribter t`ig cost sub`

    fgftfitfves to mite provfme.

    ]`fs ejjort wouam fgvoave i wfme-righfgh igm metercfgem ejjort, aem ly piriaaea

    boiaftfogs fgsfme igm outsfme hovergcegt, to bogvey s`irem fgterests fg ̀ fh`-aevea

    gubaeir seburfty igm stilfafty, igm to ipproib` t`e prolaec wft` i cuatfaiteria spfrft

    igm outsfme t`e bogtext oj ex`iustfve ihreecegts. Tirtfbfpitfgh stites wouam le isnem

    to boccft t`ecseaves to i bogtfguitfog or rekuvegitfog oj i gucler oj weaa-proveg

    bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures; stritehfb ircs fgspebtfogs, exb`ighes oj fgjorcitfog

    og gubaeir prohrics igm poafbfes, gotfbitfogs oj gubaeir exerbfses or iaerts. ]`e

    mfiaohue wouam le mesfhgem to hrow fgto i lroimer mfsbussfog jor fmeis to ojjer cutuia

    reissurigbe, lot` fg hegeria igm murfgh igy potegtfia brfsfs. ]`ese bouam fgbaume

    proposias t`it ippay to t`e stitfogfgh oj cfaftiry jorbes, t`e mepaoycegt oj cfssfae

    mejegses, ruaes oj eghihecegt bogmubt jor jorbes fg proxfcfty, igm core. \eaitfveay

    qufbnay, t`e probess bouam le expigmem to fgbaume ot`er gubaeir powers wfaafgh to

    boccft t`ecseaves to t`e sice rfsn remubtfog ceb`igfscs. ]`e steps wouam le

    ugfaiteria or cuatfaiteria, lut wouam le hegeriaay fgjorcia or bomfem ogay fg very

    lrfej igm sfcpae ibborms.

    ]`fs p`ise oj t`e gew gubaeir ihegmi bouam fgbaume i gucler oj spebfb fgftfitfves.

    Roce oj t`ese wouam le prfcirfay reaitem to t`e iaert igm sijety aeveas oj UR igm

    \ussfig jorbes, lut iaa wouam le boub`em fg i lroimer probess ippayfgh to t`e gubaeir

    powers core hegeriaay. Exicpaes bouam fgbaume;52

    • Ugfaiteria, pirtfia me-iaertfgh coves ly t è Ugftem Rtites or ot`er ibtors to stirt

    i saow probess oj hrimuia covecegt iwiy jroc aiugb`-reimy iaert stitus.

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    breitfog oj i wfmeay usem

    opeg-sourbe mitilise oj gubaeir citerfias> ̀ eap jor meveaopfgh igm imvobitfgh jor

    gew mesfhgs jor gubaeir reibtors t`it eise t`e lypromubt b`iaaeghe oj gubaeir power>

    potegtfia fgjorcia bogberts or ihreecegts t`it bouam ugmerpfg gubaeir citerfias

    seburfty> pulafb mfiaohues igm imvobiby jor prohress fg t`e irei> igm core. ]`e

    getworn‖s ejjorts bouam le baoseay boormfgitem wft` hovergcegt ojbes, fg t`e Ugftem

    Rtites igm easew`ere, respogsflae jor t`e ssfae citerfia seburfty fgftfitfve.

    ]`e roae oj trigspiregby igm fgjorcitfog-s ìrfgh ceisures wouam le espebfiaay brftfbia

    to sustifgfgh i mehree oj booperitfve mfiaohue icogh t`e gubaeir powers. Fg so mofgh,

    sub` i prohric wouam ceet t`e brfterfi outafgem ilove jor usejua igm reaevigt gubaeir

    fgftfitfves; ft wouam ̀ ive t`e potegtfia imvigtihe oj jobusfgh baeiray og ireis oj s`irem

    fgterests, oge oj t`e aeimfgh brfterfi jor i revfsem ipproib`. Cost aeimfgh powers

    see t`efr owg gitfogia seburfty wrippem up fg t`e bogtroa igm seburfty oj gubaeir

    citerfias. Fj t`e Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog bouam meveaop igm fcpaecegt

    i lfaiteria ircs bogtroa rehfce murfgh t`e Boam Xir out oj i perbeptfog oj s`irem

    fgterests, t`ere fs every reisog to expebt t`e aeimfgh gubaeir powers to le ilae to mo t`e

    sice tomiy, wft` t`e rfh`t aeimers`fp. ]`e prohric wouam le lest tirhetem to bogstrifg

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    ft bouam reebt core

    oj i hegeria boccftcegt to bertifg hoias t`ig i jorcia treity. Rub` i stritehy wouam

    mecigm mebfsfve UR aeimers`fp mesfhgem to puaa rehfogia igm haolia hroups oj gitfogs

    tohet èr fg support oj eaecegts oj i haolia boccogs.:5

    ]`e bogbept oj t`e two fgftfitfves outafgem ilove fs fg pirt t`it t`ey bouam hrow fgto

    i core eailorite kofgt egterprfse over tfce”t`it i core bocpre`egsfve probess oj

    gubaeir rfsn remubtfog bouam le lufat jroc t`e hrougm up, t`rouh` t`e ibbucuaitfog

    oj mozegs oj mfsbrete boccftcegts, bogvegtfogs, igm ihreecegts, rit`er t`ig

    jroc t`e top mowg fg t`e jorc oj oge over-irb`fgh treity. Gubaeir bogmegbe-

    lufamfgh ceisures igm i ssfae-citerfia fgftfitfve wouam le two oj t`e cost paiusflae

    gubaeir prohrics to egerhfze haolia gorcs igm fgstftutfogs fg t`fs wiy igm bouam

    le t`e fgftfia jobus oj i kofgt egterprfse. ]`ey ire cuatfaiteria ly giture igm fgvfte

    t`e pirtfbfpitfog oj cigy stites. ]`ey reebt s`irem fgterests fg ivofmfgh wir ly

    cfsbiabuaitfog igm eg`igbfgh t`e seburfty oj gubaeir citerfia, igm fg t`it respebt

    wouam le it aeist t`eoretfbiaay bipilae oj refgjorbfgh gorcs oj gubaeir sijety. X`fae

    t`e reboccegmitfog `ere fs got jor i jorcia treity, t`e Ugftem Rtites bouam hit`er

    mozegs oj stites fgto i mrijt boccugfque boccfttfgh t`ec to hegeria support jor

    t`ese two hoias.

    ]`e Fcportigbe oj i Gew Zfsfog

    ]`fs report `is cime two jugmicegtia irhucegts; gubaeir rfsns ire hrowfgh> igm

    t`e exfstfgh gubaeir pirimfhc fs faa-suftem to cinfgh ceisurilae prohress ugmer t`epressure oj ecerhfgh tregms fg woram poaftfbs. Ft `is aifm out i gucler oj potegtfia

    stritehfes igm megem two lroim bogbeptuia vfsfogs t`it cfh`t afgn tohet`er eaecegts

    oj virfous stritehfes fgto i revfsem pirimfhc jor gubaeir remubtfog.

    ]`e brftfbia t`fgh gow fs jor t`e UR hovergcegt to boccft ftseaj to soce stritehfb

    bogbept t`it rebohgfzes t`e hrowfgh gubaeir mighers, aiys out i vfsfog oj i sijer

    igm core sebure woram, igm boccfts t`e Ugftem Rtites to tinfgh t`e pribtfbia

    steps gebessiry to cove fg t`it mfrebtfog. It i cfgfcuc, t`e Ugftem Rtites s`ouam

    remoulae ejjorts towirm i versfog oj haolia bogmegbe-lufamfgh, wft` t`e fmei t`it

    prohress wouam ow gituriaay fgto t`e lroimer vfsfog. Fj we ̀ ope to lot` bogtroagubaeir mighers fg t`e s`ort terc igm aiy t`e jougmitfog jor t`e evegtuia iloaftfog

    oj gubaeir weipogs, irhuilay t`e sfghae cost fcportigt prforfty fs to egsure t`it t`e

    sfgews oj t`e gubaeir eri”t`e stobns oj ssfae citerfia t`it big le usem jor locls”

    ire bitiaohuem, bogtroaaem, igm, to t`e extegt possflae, eafcfgitem. ]`fs probess fs weaa

    ugmerwiy igm t`e gext p`ise oj gubaeir rfsn remubtfog s`ouam meepeg igm remoulae

    t`ose ejjorts fg wiys cost ipproprfite to t`e ecerhfgh seburfty egvfrogcegt.

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    24

    5< Ree, or exicpae, Haolia [ero Boccfssfog og Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog, ‑Me-Iaer tfgh igm Rtilfafzfgh t`e

    Xoram‖s Gubaeir Jorbe Tostures,– Iprfa igm

    Mivfm E. Cos`er, Aoweaa @. Rb`wirtz, Mivfm \. @oweaa, igm Aygg E. Mivfs, Leyogm t`e Gubaeir R`imow; I

    T`isem Ipproib` jor Fcprovfgh Gubaeir Rijety igm U.R.-\ussfig \eaitfogs (Rigti Cogfbi, BI; ]`e \IGM

    Borporitfog,

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    29

    @oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty

     

    ]`e pulafs`er `is cime t`fs worn ivifailae ugmer i Breitfve Boccogs Ittrflutfog-GoMerfvs afbegse 2.4. ]o vfew i bopy

    o t`fs afbegse, vfsft `ttp;//breitfveboccogs.orh/afbegses/ly-gm/2.4.

    @oover Fgstftutfog Tress issuces go respogsflfafty or t`e persfstegbe or ibburiby o U\As or extergia or t`frm-pirty

    Fgterget welsftes reerrem to fg t`fs pulafbitfog, igm moes got huirigtee t`it igy bogtegt og sub` welsftes fs, or wfaa

    recifg, ibburite or ipproprfite.

    Bopyrfh`t ©

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    @oover Fgstftutfog Essiy Rerfes

    og \emubfgh Gubaeir ]`reits

    ]`e @oover Fgstftutfog Tress `is pulafs`em severia loon-

    aeght` igiayses oj gubaeir weipogs fssues, cigy oj w`fb`

    meia wft` t`e b`ighfgh giture oj meterregbe fg t`e burregt

    fgtergitfogia egvfrogcegt. Jeaaows oj t`e @oover Fgstftutfog,

    pirtfbuairay Heorhe T. R`uatz, Xfaafic K. Terry, igm Rfmgey

    Mreaa, iaso `ive wrftteg `fh`ay ibbaifcem igiayses jor t`e

    gitfogia press. ]`fs essiy, ly Cfb`iea Cizirr, fs t`e rst oj i

    serfes oj obbisfogia pipers t`it wfaa aa t`e hip letweeg loons

    igm gewspiper irtfbaes. Afne t`ose to joaaow, t`fs essiy fs i

    metifaem exicfgitfog oj ig fcportigt fssue ijjebtfgh gubaeir

    weipogs igm ojjers fmeis reaevigt to bogtecporiry pulafb

    poafby. Ft fs jor t`e reimer w`o wigts ig expaigitfog oj t`e

    jibts igm libnhrougm ugmerayfgh gubaeir fssues igm wouam

    afne to le eghihem fg soavfgh prolaecs t`e gitfog jibes tomiy.

    ]`fs wfme-righfgh serfes oj pipers wfaa `ive two boccog

    t`eces. X`it ire t`e gubaeir fssues tomiy t`it meserve `fh`er

    prforfty? @ow big t`e Ugftem Rtites, ibtfgh iaoge or wft`

    ot`ers, remube t`e t`reit t`ey pose?

     Jor fgjorcitfog ilout t`e @oover Fgstftutfog, paeise vfsft us ogafge

    it www.`oover.orh.

     Ilout t`e Iut`or 

    CFB@IEA K. CI[I\\

    Cfb`iea Cizirr fs i segfor

    poaftfbia sbfegtfst it t`e

    \IGM Borporitfog, w`fb`

    `e kofgem fg Obtoler