a regional chemical reanalysis prototype
DESCRIPTION
A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype. Pius Lee 1 , Greg Carmichael 2 , Tianfeng Chai 3 , Rick Saylor 4 , Li Pan 3 ,Hyuncheol Kim 3 , Daniel Tong 3 , Ariel Stein 1 , and Yongtao Hu 5 1 Air Resources Lab., NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Pius Lee1, Greg Carmichael2, Tianfeng Chai3, Rick Saylor4,Li Pan3,Hyuncheol Kim3, Daniel Tong3, Ariel Stein1, and
Yongtao Hu5
1Air Resources Lab., NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD2Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA
3Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD4Air Resources Lab., NOAA, Oak Ridge, TN
5School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA
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OUTLINEChemical Reanalysis objective: Integration of obs and model
Regional prototype: met-model, Data assimilation, and CTM
Real Time intermittent sources accounted: HMS wild fires
Dynamic LBC from RAQM: OMI O3 and MODIS AOD, wild fires
Observations ingested: MODIS AOD, AIRNow PM2.5
DISCOVER-AQ 2011 case study: Show stepwise improvement
Example end-user: SIP modeling initialized by reanalysis
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
312th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Constrained
SatelliteProducts
Global Assimilation
+ AQ Assessments
+ State Implementation Plan Modeling
+ Rapid deployment of on-demand
+ Rapid-respond forecasting; e.g., Methane leakage from fracking
+ Demonstration of the impact of observations on AQ distributions
http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/aqast/projects.html
Upcoming AQAST Project: Air Quality Reanalysis Greg Carmichael + others (Translating Research to Services)
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Courtesy: Carmichael, Keynote speechIWAQFR 2011, Nov 29 – Dec 1 2011, D.C.
Challenge: Achieving A Closer Integration Of Observations And Models
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Poster: Aijun Xiu: “GOES DA in WRF model
This study aims to build a prototype User friendliness and reliability are keys to success: e.g..
Goal: A user friendly downloadable archive
512th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Base NMMB-CMAQ471; EPA 2012 aa mobile/area; 2011 CEM point
Raqms Dynamic Chemical LBC
Fire HMS (~7 satellites) wild fire*
AOD-DA IO method D.A. MODIS AOD
AIRNow PM
AIRNow ~ 300 monitors with 6 hourly PM2.5 obs
Building a chemical reanalysis prototype & its testing :Incremental ingestion of observations
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CMAQPM
MODIS
AIRNow
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
*Poster: Tao Zeng: “Calibration using burn permits”
MODIS AOD & AIRNow PM2.5 ingestion
12Z 15Z 18Z 21Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 15Z
This is set up not ideal:Working towards ingesting AIRNow 6 hourly,and 4 cycles per day.
17Z
NCEP NDAS full cycling
Forward model with obs ingested by OI feeds next cycle OI: MODIS total AOD
OI: AIRNow PM2.5
18Z
Forecast by CTM constrained by IC adjustment
17Z 20Z
712th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
O3 verification statistics over CONUS with NAM-CMAQ for August 1-5 2006. (Tang et al. 2008 Environ. Fluid Mech.)
Case Mean bias Regression slope Corr. Coef.
Fixed LBC 8.0 0.887 0.714GFS O3 9.2 0.935 0.714MOZART 8.2 0.941 0.716RAQMS 10.0 0.911 0.718
812th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010
Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires
5xAgricultural burningprevails in the monthsof March and Aprilin Mexico
912th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Talk: Stephen Reid: “HRes MODIS AOD for large fires 11:00 am tomorrow
MODIS AOD Assimilation
)()( 1 HXYOHBHBHXX TTba
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MODIS obs
CMAQ base
Difference map: Analysis minus Base
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
C
R
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
50
100
150
200
250
MODIS_FINE: 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
Observation Input
Background Input
Analysis output
OI
Methodology of OI: Take account forbackground input; Obs; andphysical processes from model
1112th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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MODIS AOD CMAQ Base
Analysis - BaseCMAQ Analysis
HMS detected large swath of smoke in EUS on July 2 2011
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Total AOD assimilation tests
Day
AO
DR
MS
E
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Base caseOI forecastOI analysis
Base case: CMAQ4.7.1 without any data assimilationOI forecast: CMAQ results after assimilating previous day AOD observationsOI Analysis: CMAQ results after assimilating same day AOD, for next day forecast
Day
AO
DR
MS
E
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Base caseOI forecastOI analysis
Fine mode AOD assimilation Total AOD assimilation
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18Z
17Z 20Z OI: MODIS total AOD
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Upper Midwest Northeast US
Rock Mountain Region Lower Midwest
Pacific Coast Region Southeast US
1412th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
P3 Three and a half loops: Beltsville Padonia Fairhill Aldino Edgewood Essex Chesapeake Bay
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CO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs
100
200
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs
HCHO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs
NOy (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
36-km (148x112)
12-km (123x138)
WRF 3.2.1 for meteorological fields•NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 32-km resolution inputs•NCEP ADP surface and soundings observational data •MODIS landuse data for most recent land cover status•3-D and surface nudging, Noah land-surface model
SMOKE 2.6 for CMAQ ready gridded emissions •NEI inventory projected to 2011 using EGAS growth and existing control strategies •BEIS3 biogenic emissions based on BELD3 database•GOES biomass burning emissions: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/EPA/GBBEP/
CMAQ 5.0 •SAPRC99 mechanism, AERO5, ISORROPIA thermodynamic, Mass conservation
Initialization of chemical fields for 4 km domain•From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAALBC for chemical fields for 4 km domain•From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAA
GA Tech as end user of product of re-analysis fields
IC/BC of Base and AOD_DA cases
DISCOVER-AQGA_Tech4 km
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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24 h PM2.5 on 07/02/2011 :(a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km
(a) (b)
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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(a) (b)
24 h PM2.5 on 07/07/2011 :(a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.
Base 12.75 -4.55 7.92 0.55
RAQMS 12.75 -4.45 7.87 0.55
Fire 12.75 -4.33 7.80 0.55
PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.
Base 14.49 -4.07 6.63 0.64
RAQMS 14.49 -3.96 6.55 0.64
Fire 14.49 -3.89 6.51 0.64
NE12 km
CONUS12 km
PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.
Base 17.36 -5.88 22.50 0.40
Re-analysis aided IC and LBC
14.49 -3.48 22.19 0.42
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DISCOVER-AQGA_Tech4 km
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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Push towards higher resolution at NCEP
product Targeted next date Remark
GFS T878L64 ~ 22km April 2014
GDAS T574 Enkr/GSI ~ 27 km April 2014
GEFS T382L64 ~ 35 km April 2014 ~30 members
NAM 12 km North America Already in place
NAM 3 km CONUS nest July 2014
NAM On demand basis 1.3 km limited domain
Already in place Fire weather
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
Poster: Pat Dolwick: “Comparison of CMAQ performance as a funciton of grid resolution for 2007”
Talk: Jason Ching: “km scale mesoscale Met modeling 1:20pm tomorrow for AQ simulations”
Talk: Mark Estes: “Regional background O3 for Houston, 11:20am tomorrow Texas.”
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Prototype:•Started on ARL and AQAST initiated Chemical Reanalysis•Expandable and updatable to capture chemical state of the
Troposphere hourly in 12 km resolution•Prototype modeling system comprised of:
CTM: CMAQ4.7.1 and D.A. algorithm: Optimal Interpolation (OI) •Observation assimilated:
HMS wild fireMODIS total AOD twice dailyAIRNow PM2.5 6 hourly.
Next Step:•Assimilate GOES clouds to constrain photolytic rates•Transition OI to GSI protocol for operational implementation
12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC
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EXTRA SLIDES
Contact: [email protected]://www.arl.noaa.gov/
Poster: Hyuncheol Kim: “GOME2, OMI NO2
Talk 10:20 am tomorrow
• Thank you for voicing support to NAQFC “I am writing to comment on the Proposed Termination of NWS Ozone Air Quality Predictions …The NAQFC is the only numerical forecast model that is available every day, is fully documented, accessible for evaluation, and shows good forecast skill. It should be retained”. (November 1 2012, Bill Ryan, PSU)
On “The proposal to shelve the $5.4 million National Air Quality Forecasting Capability in March has drawn protests from public health officials…” (January 26 2013, Dan Vergano, USA Today)
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November 2012, MDE as Oppose_1
Will AOD assimilation improve PM2.5?Which one is better, fine mode or total?
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq