A Region at RiskA Region at RiskA SUMMARY OF

THE THIRD REGIONAL PLAN FOR

THE NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY-CONNECTICUT

METROPOLITAN AREA

REGIONAL PLAN ASSOCIATION

Copyright © 1996, Regional Plan Association, Inc.

Cover photo: New York City skyline from Ramapo Mountain State Forest, boundary of Bergen andPassaic counties in the New Jersey Highlands. Copyright © George M. Aronson. Cover by OctavoDesign.

To order a copy of A Region at Risk: the Third Regional Plan for the New York-New Jersey-ConnecticutMetropolitan Area by Robert D. Yaro and Tony Hiss, contact Island Press, 1718 Connecticut Avenue,NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009-1148, phone 800-828-1302. fax 202-234-1328

For more information on Regional Plan Association, visit our web site at http://www.rpa.org.

Regional Plan Association-A Catalyst With a History of Results

Regional Plan Association is the nation's oldest regional planning organization, focusing on the New York-NewJersey-Connecticut Metropolitan Region. RPA recommends policy improvements and investments, fosterscooperation among government and private organizations, and involves the public in considering and shaping itsown future. RPA's research includes land use planning, transportation, economic development, environment,governance, and social policy.

RPA's First Regional Plan, published in 1929, brought the region together to build a network of roads, railways,and parks that directly shaped two generations of growth. The Second Regional Plan, published in 1968, renewedthe regional focus on landscape and transportation, leading to protection of nearly 1 million acres of open space. Itadvocated combining the New York City subways and several suburban railroads into the MetropolitanTransportation Authority and NJ TRANSIT, which led to a multi-billion dollar reinvestment program that served asa foundation for the region's surging growth in the 1980s.

Introduction

As a new millennium approaches, the Tri-StateMetropolitan Region of New York, New Jersey,and Connecticut is a region at risk.• Despite our strength in the global economy, we

are facing years of slow growth and uncertaintyfollowing our worst recession in 50 years.

• Despite the billions of dollars spent every yearby the public and private sectors oninfrastructure, office space, and housing, theuncomfortable truth is that we have been livingoff the legacy of investments of previousgenerations.

• Despite a history of strength from diversity, ashadow of social division has fallen across theregion.

• Despite strict laws and renewed publicconcern, we continue to pollute our air andwater and checkerboard our rural areas withsuburban sprawl.

The region faces a future in which it must competein a global economy that offers new challenges andopportunities. The question posed is whether the

next 25 years will represent the final chapter in astory of prosperity and momentum that dates to thesettlement of Manhattan in the 17th century. Thewarning is that modest growth in the next fewyears could mask the beginning of a long, slow,and potentially irreversible and tragic decline.

A regional perspective is the proper scale andcontext for analyzing and addressing these issues.Metropolitan regions are becoming the dominanteconomic, environmental and social components ofthe next century. During the 1980s, themetropolitan regions in the U.S. that grew mostrapidly all had central cities that also grew rapidly.And in areas where suburban incomes declined,central cities also experienced decline. Nearly one-third of income earned in New York City ends upin the pockets of commuters, around $44 billionannually. More than ever, the economies, societies,and environments of all the communities in theTri-State Metropolitan Region are intertwined,transcending arbitrary political divisions. Our citiesand suburbs share a common destiny.

RPA has produced a plan to reconnect theregion to its basic foundations, the Three E's-economy, environment, and equity-which are thefoundations of our quality of life. The fundamentalgoal of the plan is to rebuild the Three E's throughinvestments and policies that integrate and build onour advantages, rather than focusing on just one ofthe E's to the detriment of the others. Currently,economic development is too often border warfare,as states within the region try to steal businessesfrom each other in a zero-sum game. Social issuesare either ignored or placated by a vast welfaresystem that fails to bring people into the economicmainstream. And environmental efforts focus onshort-term solutions that attack the symptomsrather than the causes of problems.

This summary outlines RPA's analysis andprojections of the Three E's. It summarizes therecommendations of A Region at Risk, the ThirdRegional Plan, and groups them into five majorcampaigns that integrate the Three E's: creating aregional greensward, concentrating growth incenters, improving mobility, investing in acompetitive workforce, and reforming governance.Each campaign combines the goals of economic,equity, and environmental improvements, leadingthe region to a more competitive, prosperous, fair,and sustainable future.

The Tri-State Metropolitan RegionRPA focuses its research and analysis on the 31 counties that compose and surround New YorkCity and function as a single region. They encompass southwestern Connecticut, New YorkCity's five boroughs, Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and northern New Jersey. It includesnearly 20 million people, a more than half-trillion dollar economy, and nearly 800 cities, towns,and villages spread across 13,000 square miles.

The Three E's:

Where We Are, Where We Are

Headed

The Three E's are the objectives of the plan, thecomponents of RPA's goal of improving quality oflife.

Economy

Between 1989 and 1992, this region fell into asteep and frightening recession that claimed 770,000jobs-the largest job loss of any metropolitan areasince World War II-eliminating virtually all ourgrowth from the 1980s. Unlike previous recessions,however, all parts of the region suffered losses ofsimilar magnitude. Immediate growth prospects for

many key industries remain weak or uncertain, andrecovery has been much slower than in other parts ofthe nation.

This recession and slow recovery must beconsidered in the context of a wrenching globaltransformation. New technologies have radicallychanged how goods and services are produced,marketed, and distributed, and a fiercely competitiveglobal economy can quickly turn the fortunes of abusiness or a community. Low-skilled workers areparticularly vulnerable to this transformation, asautomation, rising skill requirements, and corporatedownsizing have depressed wages and jobopportunities.

But this region has enormous advantages in theemerging global economy. It is the world's mostactive and innovative center of global capitalmanagement, with more than 10,000 internationalbusinesses. It is an unsurpassed producer ofinformation, with leadership in broadcasting, bookpublishing, and magazines. This region is a premierdesigner of popular culture, through the arts, massmarketing, media, and an increasing multi-culturalism that equips us to compete directly indozens of languages and cultures. With over 150

colleges and universities, it is one of the world'slargest centers for research and academia. Finally,this region is the meeting grounds for governmentsaround the world, with the United Nations, itsaffiliates, and permanent missions drawing anunparalleled diversity of people, interests, ideas, andapproaches.

Over the next decade, the region is likely toexperience sluggish growth as employment recoversto its pre-recession peak. Moderate growth fueled bynew global markets and information technology willbe countered by continued corporate down-sizingand global competition. These trends will likelyresult in continued employment losses inmanufacturing and government, but modestincreases in financial, business, and personalservices.

In the long-term, the region has the opportunityto enjoy sustainable economic growth driven byproductivity gains and increased sales to expandingglobal markets. But that promise could fail withoutnew investments in infrastructure, communities,environment and the workforce. Increasingly,quality of life is the benchmark against which theregion is judged in competition with other regions inthe nation and world.

Equity

This region is one of the most diverse in humanhistory. Residents speak more languages, offer awider array of skills, reside across more extremedensities, and live under the broadest range ofincomes in the nation. Demographic projectionsshow that it will be even more diverse in the future.By the year 2020 a majority of the region's residentswill be of African, Asian, or Hispanic heritage,largely as a result of a constant flow of immigrantsfrom around the globe. Since 1972 the region hasdrawn over 2.2 million legal immigrants, almostone-fifth of the nation's total legal entries.Throughout the '90s and beyond, immigrants andtheir children will account for virtually all of theregion's expansion in working-age population. Thesenew residents bring with them enormous talent andcultural diversity-New York City could never havecome into being without them.

But even as we become a more diverse society,disturbing trends show us becoming a more isolatedand fragmented society. Low-skilled workers face afuture of declining incomes and sporadicemployment, and over two million residents of theregion already live in poverty. Nearly three millionadults in the region are estimated to be functionallyilliterate. Most new jobs will demand at least some

college or post-secondary education, yet a largeshare of urban students never finish high school.And poverty remains much more concentratedamong non-white residents, even when differencesin education and skills are accounted for,demonstrating that bias and segregation remainpersistent problems.

Entire communities are being left out of theregion's growing prosperity, as the concept of apermanent underclass seems to have becomeacceptable to some. Too many people now see ourdiversity not as the enormous advantage it providesin the world economy, but as a hindrance. We haveno choice but to accommodate increasing numbersof foreign immigrants in our society, school systems,and workforce. The region needs to work harder tointegrate these communities into its social fabric andeconomic mainstream. Isolated by physical barriers-such as a lack of housing or public transportationalternatives-that separate residences from newemployment opportunities, inner-city communitieshave been cut off from the new employment centersin the region's suburbs.

For a prosperous future, this region must do abetter job of welcoming and assimilating its presentimmigrant population, as well as the 1.25 millionnew immigrants expected in the next 10 years. Thesepeople can be an enormous advantage, or a liability,

depending on the policies put in place now, fromaffordable housing to education to economicdevelopment.

Environment

This region is a national leader in environmentalprotection, having enacted comprehensive and far-reaching environmental standards and having spentthe money and political capital needed to make thelaws work. As a result, the region has added 350,000acres of public parkland since the 1960s, while airand water quality has improved significantly. Yet,these achievements can obscure the serious nature ofproblems that still confront us. Most of the regiondoes not meet federal air quality standards. Moreand more drinking water must now be filtered. Manyurban neighborhoods lack for park acreage andsuburban development continues to sprawl acrossmountains and farmland.

In the past 30 years a new pattern of land use hasswept the region, involving the construction ofmassive campus-style commercial and industrialfacilities in sprawling residential suburbs. From1970 to 1995, core urban counties lost more than300,000 jobs while the outer suburban ring gained 2million. Eighty percent of the 1.7 million housingunits built since 1970 were constructed in theregion's outer ring, as residents sought affordable

housing, lower taxes, and escape from the problemsof cities and inner suburbs. But these rings ofdeconcentrated suburbs consume vast areas of openland and shatter traditional patterns of community.

The spread-out pattern of homes and jobs has ledpeople to drive more than ever. The number ofvehicle miles traveled in the region grew by 60%from 1970 to 1990, creating congestion on highwaysand roads. Growing use of automobiles, trucks, andbuses is also the key reason why the region is secondonly to Los Angeles in number of days that airquality fails to meet federal standards. But currenttoll policies are absolutely backward, rejecting thefundamental market principle of charging more for ascarce resource. Instead, tolls are discounted forcommuters who use the roads during the mostcrowded times. Furthermore, parking is oftenprovided for free and gasoline is now cheaper inconstant dollars than it has ever been, costing lessthan bottled water.

At the same time, the region has abandonedurban areas, hollowing out cities that historicallyhave been the locus for jobs and residences. By 1980the majority of the region's residents did not live in acity. The most visible impact of this has been theconversion of forests, farms, and wetlands to urbanuses and the paving of wildlife habitat and natural

resources. The region lost 40% of its farmlandbetween 1964 and 1987, and development outsideurban areas continues at around 30,000 acres a year.

This challenge comes at a time of widespreaddissatisfaction with environmental management bybusiness and the public sectors. Government policiesthat call for polluted sites to be cleaned by theirowners before reuse often impede site restoration. In1994, more than $4.6 billion state, federal, and localfunds were allocated for water pollution control incoastal waters and $2.8 billion was spent disposingof garbage. But all of the region's landfills will reachcapacity around 2000, and we will be spending moreon pollution control and disposal in the future.

Efforts to protect the environment from furtherdegradation will have to begin looking at the causesof problems-land use, transportation, and publicpolicies-to find innovative and comprehensivesolutions. We can do a better job of protecting theenvironment and living within our means bylearning to produce less waste, recycle, and rely onbiological systems for natural resource managementand pollution control.

The Five Campaigns

The central concept of the Three E's is that theydefine the goals of the plan. Strategies forimproving the region's quality of life mustreinforce all three distinct areas and demonstratehow our economy, equity, and environment arevitally linked to each other, or those strategies maybe counter-productive.

Five initiatives anchor the plan-Greensward,Centers, Mobility, Workforce, and Governance.Each campaign addresses all three E's. Together,they have been designed to re-energize the regionby re-greening, re-connecting, and re-centering it.The Greensward safeguards the region's greeninfrastructure of forests, watersheds, estuaries, andfarms, and establishes green limits for futuregrowth. Centers focuses the next generation ofgrowth in the region's existing downtown

employment and residential areas. Mobility createsa new transportation network that knits together there-strengthened centers. Workforce providesgroups and individuals living in these centers withthe skills and connections needed to bring theminto the economic mainstream. Achieving theseends will require new ways of organizing andenergizing our political and civic institutions, asoutlined in Governance. Collectively, all of thesestrategies underpin the region's quality of life andcan guide us to sustainable growth as we enter the21st century.

The goal of the campaigns in the ThirdRegional Plan is to integrate and improve theregion's economy, environment, and equity,thereby improving our quality of life.

Greensward

Two generations of decentralized growth havedrastically increased the region's urban land-by60% in 30 years despite only a 13% increase inpopulation. Continuing exurban development at arate of more than 30,000 acres a year threatenslarge areas of open land and environmentalresources at the region's outer edge, more than 50miles from Manhattan.

The region needs a regional greensward thatsafeguards water supplies and recreationalopportunities and shapes future growth byintegrating protected large-scale landscaperesources, an established regional network ofgreenways, and revitalized urban parks and openspaces. The greensward makes economic sense,protecting the environmental infrastructure thatwould otherwise require costly clean up andpollution controls. It will provide importantbenefits to people, safeguarding access torecreation and natural landscapes. And it will begood for the environment, providing a long-termand comprehensive plan to reconcilelocal land use and development withbroader regional objectives.

RPA is undertaking projectsdesigned to protect key open spacetracts, manage natural resources,provide land use planning assistanceto local communities, and revitalizeurban parks. Eleven landscapes andcoastal estuaries are of particularconcern: the Long Island PineBarrens and Peconic Estuary;Catskill Mountains; Shawangunk andKittatinny mountains; New York-New Jersey-Connecticut AppalachianHighlands; Hudson River; DelawareRiver; New Jersey Pinelands; LongIsland Sound; New York/New JerseyHarbor; Atlantic seashore; anddisappearing active farmland. Thesereserves comprise 2.5 million acresthat are currently at risk of beingconsumed by suburban sprawl. Amodel for protection of these areasalready exists in the New JerseyPinelands and the Long Island PineBarrens, where a new locally-

controlled commission is protecting 50,000 acresand supervising development on another 50,000acres. The recent agreement between New YorkCity and upstate communities to balance growthand protection of the watershed builds on thisexperience.Major recommendations of the campaigninclude:♦ Establish 11 regional reserves that protect

public water supplies, estuaries, and farmlandsand function as an urban growth boundary forthe region.

♦ Reinvest in urban parks, public spaces, andnatural resources, restoring and creating newspaces in urban neighborhoods and alongwaterfronts.

♦ Create a regional network of greenways thatprovide access to recreational areas.

Centers

Recent development patterns have shiftedresources and investment away from the region'scities and inner-suburbs, so that virtually all ouremployment growth in the past 30 years has beenlocated outside existing centers. Unless this trendis reversed, the region will face ever-worseningproblems of limited access to employmentopportunities, wide income disparities, socialisolation, environmental degradation, and lack ofaffordable housing. Already, economicconsequences of decayed cities, traffic congestion,and the region's deteriorating quality of life areapparent.

The region must work to improve quality oflife and economic opportunities in centers,including not only the region's Central BusinessDistrict but also downtowns throughout the regionsuch as Newark, Poughkeepsie, and Bridgeport.Centers provide a more efficient use of resourcesand reduce costs for the entire regional economy.Centers also reduce land consumption and allow usto conserve a greater portion of our remaining openspace. And because they are more accessible toless-advantaged communities, investing in andbringing new employment to centers brings newopportunities to the residents who need them most.

But these goals will only be realized throughan aggressive campaign to improve downtowns,from reconfiguring transit connections, torethinking urban design, to establishing new jobopportunities. The Centers Campaign will direct asmuch job growth as possible to central businessdistricts in the region's major downtowns andencourage residential growth in a constellation ofcenters. The goal is to maintain the approximately50% share that centers currently have of theregion's employment. To do this, the campaign willwork for new public-private investments, creativeplanning, and zoning, and expansion of arts andcultural activities that foster the kind of desirablemixed-use communities that will attract jobs andresidents to centers.

Major recommendations of the campaign include:♦ Strengthen the region's Central Business

District by building a Crosstown light-railsystem and district, expanding transit access toLower Manhattan and the Jersey City

waterfront, and revitalizing DowntownBrooklyn and Long Island City.

♦ Invest in 11 regional downtowns-New Haven,Bridgeport, Stamford, White Plains,Poughkeepsie, Hicksville, Mineola, Jamaica,Newark, New Brunswick, and Trenton-attracting new job growth and rebuildingcommunities rather than building on greenfieldsites.

♦ Create incentives for new development andinvestment in transit- and pedestrian-friendlycenters throughout the region, so they have thequality of life that makes living and working incenters worthwhile.

♦ Support new institutions and uses in centers,such as telematic at-home businesses, mixeduse districts, and arts and cultural institutions.

MobilityMobility throughout the region is hampered by

limited and fragmented transit service, a freight railsystem that terminates at the west side of theHudson River, and congested and bottleneckedroads. There is little capacity for growth on thecurrent highway system, unless new developmenttakes place even further from the center of theregion. At the same time, the public transportationsystem requires new commitment and investmentsimply to maintain it in a state of good repair.

The region should invest in a Regional ExpressRail (Rx) network to bring mobility throughout theregion to world-class standards, which can be

The arts are a critical resource to the region’s quality oflife. The Centers Campaign seeks to promote arts andcultural institutions as catalysts for the revitalization ofcenters throughout the region.

accomplished with only 25 miles of new railtrack—a 2% expansion of the existing system—and by re-using abandoned or under-utilizedinfrastructure. Improved mobility would strengthenthe region’s economy by reducing travel times andtransfers to employment centers and airports,improving freight connections, and using the roadsystem more efficiently with less congestion. Itwould improve our society, as less-advantagedcommunities become better connected toemployment opportunities. And regional mobilitywould improve our environment, allowing peopleand goods to travel more quickly with lesspollution.

The Mobility Campaign has three principalcomponents: improved transit service, atransformed freight system, and a highway networkwith reduced congestion. The campaign willpromote a Regional Express Rail network thatsupports the centers of commerce and provides

fuller access to major employment sites. RPA willadvance strategies that promote a more efficientsystem of freight movement in the region. And thecampaign will work to institute market-basedtransportation pricing measures that recognize thefull public and private costs of transportation andadd efficiency through market incentives.

Major recommendations of the campaign include:• Build a Regional Express Rail (Rx) system that

provides: airport access by connecting theLong Island Railroad to Grand CentralTerminal, Lower Manhattan, Kennedy Airport,and LaGuardia Airport; direct access fromNew Jersey and Long Island to the East Sideand Lower Manhattan; direct service from theHudson Valley and Connecticut to the WestSide and Lower Manhattan; through servicefrom New Jersey to Connecticut and LongIsland; and service between the boroughs in anew circumferential subway line.

The Rx System in the Region.The existing commuter rail network is shaded, while new Rx connections are depicted in black. Where there is an overlap,as on the Northeast Corridor in New Jersey and on MetroNorth’s New Haven line, the Rx shading is used.

• Promote congestion-busting through road-pricing and market approaches, such as tollsand employer incentives. Also finish missinglinks in the highway network that supportexisting centers or remedy notoriousbottlenecks.

• Improve commercial transportation by buildinga freight rail trans-Hudson crossing and cuttingcongestion on the highway system.

Workforce

The emerging economy in today's globalmarket will require a competitive, educatedworkforce to perform increasingly complex jobs.High-paying jobs in growing international serviceindustries will be particularly demanding of newskills. But entire communities are being left behindby these trends, failed by the institutions andregulations that should allow them to becomeparticipants in a growing mainstream economy.

The region must help provide young peopleand adults, particularly from low-incomecommunities, with the skills and access needed toparticipate in information and technology-basedindustries. Workforce development will ensure

economic growth by supplying the workforcenecessary for new technology-based activities andincreasing productivity. It addresses social equityby closing the skill gap that creates largerdisparities in income. And it improves ourenvironment by focusing growth into urbancenters, rather than encouraging more businesses tomove out to the suburbs.

RPA calls upon the region's business,education, labor, and civic institutions to develop asystem of life-long learning that meets therequirements of a competitive, knowledge-basedeconomy and to reform institutions and regulationsto allow low-income communities to participate inthe mainstream economy. The campaign willidentify existing strengths and weaknesses in ourcurrent systems and propose benchmarks forregional institutions. The campaign will supportincreased private sector participation in workforcedevelopment initiatives and will advocate policiesto increase school financing in poorercommunities, encourage greater participation byimmigrant populations in the mainstreameconomy, loosen restrictions on informal economicactivities, and improve access to information,telecommunications, and transportation servicesfor poorer communities.Major recommendations of the campaigninclude:♦ Reconnect work and education with a system

of life-long learning that increases investmentsin human capital and coordinates differentphases of learning, from early childhooddevelopment to adult learning and re-training.

♦ Connect the new workforce to the mainstreamlabor market through immigration reform,revised affirmative action programs, andrecognition of informal economic activities.

♦ Connect communities to jobs through physicaland social infrastructure, expandingcommunity-based organizations, transportationoptions, and job information networks.

GovernanceThe region is composed of 20 million people

living in 13,000 square miles governed by over2,000 units of government, including counties,cities, towns, service districts, and authorities.Each of these political entities is funded almost

A workforce with diverse skills and cultures is centralto the region’s strength in the global economy.

exclusively through property tax, and the majorityof them control their own budgets independently.The result is fiscal imbalance and inefficiencies, inthe form of duplication of efforts, depletion anddegradation of natural resources, self-serving andshort-sighted decisions, cumbersome land useregulatory processes, and inadequate delivery ofpublic services.

The Governance Campaign will re-focus stategovernment and regional authorities, enabling us tobuild and manage world-class infrastructure andreduce regulatory burdens and tax inefficiencies.Reforming governance is necessary for the region’seconomy, as it is clear that we cannot supportcurrent deficient systems, with delays andexpensive regulations. Governance is critical toproviding greater equity for the region’s society, inpublic education, land use, and service delivery.And governance is crucial to protecting ourenvironment, as we reform land use regulations

that currently encourage sprawl rather thanredevelopment.

Through reform of taxation and land useregulations, RPA will promote faster and betterdelivery of public services with less duplication,fewer layers of bureaucracy, and a reduction inconflicting mandates. The Governance Campaignwill propose more efficient public capitalinfrastructure investments, identified in the plan,and effective state development plans and growthboundaries.Major recommendations of the campaign include:• Coordinate governance in the region through

state growth management plans, educationfinance reform, service sharing, and newregional coalitions:

• An annual “G-3” governors’ conference tocoordinate policies and investments to promoteregional competitiveness and a regionalcompact between the three governors to reduceborder warfare economic development policies.

In Jamaica Bay, a smart infrastructure approach is achieving water quality improvements by protecting and restoring naturalsystems and habitat. The smart infrastructure plan, which replaced a proposed treatment plant, has improved wildlife andfishery habitats and provided new recreational opportunities with an estimated 50% reduction in the cleanup budget.

• A Tri-State Congressional Coalition to fight foressential federal tax and regulatory reforms andinfrastructure funds.

• A Tri-State Business Council composed of themajor regional chambers of commerce andpartnerships to coordinate regional promotionand advocacy and develop a regional businessplan.

• Create new public institutions to finance andprovide regional services, such as a Tri-State

Regional Transportation Authority, arestructured Port Authority, and a Tri-StateInfrastructure Bank.

• Improve public and private decision-makingprocesses, incorporating sustainable economicsin accounting and tax and regulatory systemsand utilizing smart infrastructure approaches tocapital investments.

Paying for the Plan

If fully implemented, the plan's five campaignswill yield a range of benefits that include strongerand more sustainable economic growth, a morecohesive society with a more equitable distributionof prosperity, cleaner air and water, lesscongestion, more attractive communities, and arich legacy for future generations. Many of thesebenefits cannot be quantified, because we lack thetools to measure them effectively. However, aplausible scenario canbe constructed todemonstrate thedifference betweencurrent trends and theresult of a pro-activestrategy to reinvest inthe region's human,physical, and naturalresources.For the past severaldecades the region'sshare of the nationaleconomy has declined.If this trend continues,the region will declinefrom around 9% of thenational Gross Domes-

tic Product today to near 7% by 2020. The chartbelow demonstrates RPA's projections for ourGross Regional Product-continuing its decliningshare of the nation's GDP (scenario 1) ormaintaining its current share and growing at thesame rate as the country (scenario 2). The chartshows that holding our share of the nation's growthcould translate into an additional $200 billionannually in the region's economy by 2020.

The investments, policies, and governancereforms recommended in the plan do not guaranteethat the region will achieve this goal. In fact, in theshort run it is likely that the region will continue tosee some decline in its share of national GDP. Butlong-term paybacks from the investments proposedin the plan could make it possible for the region tostabilize its share within the next decade. Thesooner we begin investing in these resources, thesooner we will gain the benefits of them.

To implement the recommendations in threecampaigns—Greensward, Centers, and Mobility—RPA estimates that the region will need to spend$75 billion above current spending levels in capital

expenditures over the next 25 years. Specifically,the plan estimates that establishing 11 regionalreserves, instituting greenways and cleaning upurban parks and waterfronts will cost $11 billion;that $17 billion will be necessary to attract newjobs and development to the region's downtownsand make significant progress in affordablehousing needs; and that building a world-classexpress rail system while improving highway andfreight movement will cost $47 billion. Therecommendations of the workforce campaign carryadditional costs, from returning public schools to astate of good repair to addressing adult literacy,that are more difficult to estimate.

Proposal Estimated Cost(in Billions)

The Greensward CampaignRegional ReservesGreenwaysUrban Parks, Natural Resourcesand Waterfront Redevelopment

61

4Total Greensward 11The Centers CampaignHousingDowntown RevitalizationArts and Historic PreservationBrownfields

10421

Total Centers 17The Mobility CampaignRegional Express Rail-RxTransit UpgradeHighwaysFreight and Airports

211547

Total Mobility 47Total Capital Costs 75

RPA proposes that these investments be fundedthrough a combination of strategies that increasegovernment efficiency or charge users for services,rather than increasing general taxes. Even withrecent downsizing in state and local government,

innovative approaches to right-size governmentand the reduced costs of providing services tocompact centers can achieve additional savings ofseveral billion dollars. Phasing out costly borderwarfare economic development strategies wouldalso provide significant revenue for investment-asmuch as $500 million annually if tax incentives tobusinesses were reduced by half. Major newrevenue sources include incentive-based tolls onhighways and bridges, a 1-cent charge per vehiclemile traveled (VMT), and a 10-cent per gallon taxon gasoline. These fees could yield a total of $40billion over the next 25 years. To pay forwatershed protection and open space preservation,new development fees, a property tax surcharge inthe regional reserves, and a .001-cent charge pergallon of water could generate over $300 million ayear. Finally, the plan's investments would yieldadditional revenue from stronger economic growth.An increase in gross regional product of $200billion by 2020 could produce an additional $20billion annually in state and municipal taxcollection, even with a decrease in tax rates.

Combined, these revenue sources wouldprovide financing for the $75 billion ininfrastructure investments and much of theworkforce investments proposed in the plan.

Call to Action

Regional Plan Association has prepared anambitious plan that targets new investmentsnecessary for sustained growth and continuedprosperity in an uncertain future. The plan calls forradical changes in the status quo and bold initiativeon the part of citizens. Some of therecommendations carry significant price tags, butthe Tri-State Metropolitan Region cannot affordnot to make these investments. Projections andanalysis demonstrate that we are reaching the endof credible short-term solutions and must begin tolook at the fundamental causes of our mountingproblems. At their root, these issues are all regionaland will require comprehensive approaches formeaningful improvements.

The five campaigns outlined in this documentare presented in greater detail in A Region at Risk,the Third Regional Plan. To succeed, eachcampaign will need the active support andcooperation of government, business, and civic

leadership. To the degree that our elected officialsdo not provide the necessary leadership, we mustform new civic coalitions demanding change.These new third sector coalitions will build on oneof the region's untapped strengths-its thousands ofcommunity, business, environmental, and othergroups. New coalitions are already being formedthat bring together competing interests and forgenew ways to address old problems, coalitionsbetween environmentalists and developers,between government and business, between localinterests and regional imperatives. By looking atthe long-term and considering the interlockinggoals of economy, equity and environment, we canbuild on our strengths and enter the nextmillennium strategically placed for another centuryof growth and prosperity. But we must act now.The region's competitiveness and sustainability in achanging world hangs in the balance.

Summary of Recommendations

Greensward♦ Establish 11 regional reserves that protect public water supplies, estuaries, and farmlands and function

as an urban growth boundary for the region.

♦ Reinvest in urban parks, public spaces, and natural resources, restoring and creating new spaces inurban neighborhoods and along waterfronts.

♦ Create a regional network of greenways that provide access to recreational areas.

Centers♦ Strengthen the region's Central Business District by building a Crosstown light-rail system and

district, expanding transit access to Lower Manhattan and the Jersey City waterfront, and revitalizingDowntown Brooklyn and Long Island City.

♦ Invest in 11 regional downtowns-New Haven, Bridgeport, Stamford, White Plains, Poughkeepsie,Hicksville, Mineola, Jamaica, Newark, New Brunswick, and Trenton-attracting new job growth andrebuilding communities rather than building on greenfield sites.

♦ Create incentives for new development and investment in transit- and pedestrian-friendly centersthroughout the region, so they provide the quality of life that makes living and working in centersworthwhile.

♦ Support new institutions and uses in centers, such as 'telematic' at-home businesses, mixed usedistricts, and arts and cultural institutions.

Moblity♦ Build a Regional Express Rail (Rx) system that provides: airport access by connecting the Long Island

Railroad to Grand Central Terminal, Lower Manhattan, Kennedy Airport, and LaGuardia Airport;direct access from New Jersey and Long Island to the East Side and Lower Manhattan; direct servicefrom the Hudson Valley and Connecticut to the West Side and Lower Manhattan; through servicefrom New Jersey to Connecticut and Long Island; and service between the boroughs in a newcircumferential subway line.

♦ Promote congestion-busting through road-pricing and market approaches, such as tolls and employerincentives. Also finish missing links in the highway network that support existing centers or remedynotorious bottlenecks.

♦ Improve commercial transportation by building a freight rail trans-Hudson crossing and cuttingcongestion on the highway system.

Workforce♦ Improve education in low-income communities by combining state financing of public education with

local management reforms and teaching innovations.

♦ Reconnect education and the workplace with local school-to-work alliances linking schools toemployers, state tax incentives to encourage continuous education for adult workers, and a tri-statecouncil of business, labor, education, and civic leaders to coordinate workforce developmentinitiatives.

♦ Bring immigrants and minorities into the mainstream economy by expanding English literacyprograms, legitimizing informal economic activities, and seeking moderate reform of federalimmigration statutes.

♦ Connect low-income communities by expanding support for community-based organizations,improving transportation links to job centers, and using new information technologies to expand jobinformation networks.

Governance♦ Coordinate governance in the region through state growth management plans, education finance

reform, service sharing, and new regional coalitions:

♦ An annual 'G-3' governors' conference to coordinate policies and investments to promote regionalcompetitiveness and a regional compact between the three governors to reduce border warfareeconomic development policies.

♦ A Tri-State Congressional Coalition to fight for essential federal tax and regulatory reforms andinfrastructure funds.

♦ A Tri-State Business Council composed of all the major regional chambers of commerce andpartnerships to coordinate regional promotion and advocacy and develop a regional business plan.

♦ Create new public institutions to finance and provide regional services, such as a Tri-State RegionalTransportation Authority, a restructured Port Authority, and a Tri-State Infrastructure Bank.

Improve public and private decision-making processes, incorporating sustainable economics inaccounting and tax and regulatory systems and utilizing smart infrastructure approaches to capitalinvestments.

Regional Plan Association gratefully acknowledges the following businesses, foundations, andgovernment agencies that contributed $100,000 or more toward the Third Regional Plan:

Brooklyn UnionChampion International CorporationThe Chase Manhattan Bank, N.A.Chemical Banking Corp.Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc.Jessie B. Cox Charitable TrustDeloitte & ToucheThe First Boston CorporationFund for the Campaign to Reform TransportationSystems in the New York City RegionGeneral Electric CompanyJoyce Mertz-Gilmore FoundationGoldman, Sachs & Co.GTE CorporationIBM CorporationThe Japan Foundation-Center for Global PartnershipJohnson & JohnsonThe J.M. Kaplan Fund, Inc.KPMG Peat MarwickThe Andrew W. Mellon FoundationMerck & Co., Inc.Merrill Lynch & Co., IncMetropolitan Life Insurance CompanyMetropolitan Transportation Authority

National Westminster Bancorp Inc.New York City Department of EnvironmentalProtectionNew York Life FoundationNew York State Department of TransportationThe New York Times Company, Inc.Newsday, Inc.NYNEXOffice of the Bronx Borough PresidentPfizer, IncorporatedPitney BowesThe Prudential Insurance Company of AmericaThe Port Authority of New York & New JerseyPublic Service Electric & Gas CompanyCharles H. Revson FoundationRockefeller Brothers FundAlfred P. Sloan FoundationState of New JerseySurdna Foundation, Inc.United States-Japan FoundationUST, Inc.Warner-Lambert CompanyXerox Corporation

REGIONAL PLAN ASSOCIATION

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