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· , ll\.a) ckJ.o \) C'0'- - A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF THE AMERICAN CHEESE MARKET by Joe H. Dewbre Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc. 3624 Science Center Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 March 1980

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Page 1: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

· ,

c~~ ll\.a) ckJ.o

~.~~ \) C'0'- -~~

A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF

THE AMERICAN CHEESE MARKET

by

Joe H. Dewbre

Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc. 3624 Science Center

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104

March 1980

Page 2: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a quarterly econometric forecasting model of the

American cheese subsector that includes equations for cheese production,

commercial sales, CCC purchases, market prices, retail prices and commercial

stocks. Dynamic simulation exercises over the 16 quarters from 1976 to 1979

were used to validate the model. Results of a diary policy simulation experi­

ment are also given.

Page 3: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

INTRODUCTION

Because of pricing practices in milk marketing orders, the complete con-

stellation of milk prices depends upon prices paid for milk for manufacturing

purposes. Most manufacturing milk is used in cheese production. Therefore,

manufacturing milk prices are to a large degree determined by market prices

for cheese. With cheese consumption on the rise and consumption of most other

dair y products stable to declining, variability in cheese prices will have more

and more influence upon manufacturing milk prices, and thus upon the entire

complex of milk and dairy product prices.

Though prices for cheese vary relatively less than prices for other agri-

cultural commodities, due in part to the operation of the dairy price support

system, short term planning for cheese is complicated by divergent and variable

seasonal production and consumption patterns, and by product transformation in

storage (aging). Also there are no active futures markets for cheese and few

risk transfer opportunities through other mechanisms. Since large commercial

inventories of cheese must be maintained, even small price changes have sub-

stantial impact upon costs and returns for cheese market participants.

Besides the impact the shift toward cheese will have upon the cheese mar-

ket itself, there are some serious dairy policy implications. Although the

dairy price support system is effectuated in part through CCC purchases of

American cheese, the present system of dairy price in~ervention through federal

milk marketing orders was formulated with fluid milk pricing and supply consi-

derations foremost. With this focus likely to change in the future, cheese

policy options will have to be examined very carefully.

lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total manufacturing milk supplies, with American cheese accounting for about 1/2 that amount.

Page 4: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

THE MODEL

This paper describes a quarterly simultaneous equation econometric model

of the American cheese market in the U.S. developed to serve the cheese fore-

casting needs of the dairy industry and to serve as a tool for dairy policy

analysis. The model is a sub-sector model within a much larger dairy industry

model and contains five behavioral equations--cheese production, commercial sales,

eee purchases, retail prices, and market prices--and a model closure identity for

commercial stocks. Figure 1, below, gives a schematic of the cheese model

structure. The model specification is described on the following pages, and

the variable definitions, sources and units are supplied in Table 1. The

results of a simulation exercise performed with the model are summarized at the

end of the paper.

FiRure J - Schemllttc D.i!lgr:\m of Americ'," Cheese Mode.1

Production (CllEAPAl-f)

Commercial Sales (QIEDOAM)

ecc Purchases (CHF.GTPR)

Market Price (CHEPMGRBL)

Retajl Price (CHEPRl-f)

f----- - -----------

Commerdal Stocks (CIlElICA1'l)

'"d .... o 0-c: o rt ..,. o ::J

n o V>§ III ro ........ ro 0 <f> ..,.

III I-'

'"d c: .... n o () :Tn OJ <f> (l> <f>

'"d:>:l .... ro ..,. rt o p. ro .., . Ul I-'

n o ~§ o ro o .... c;-o Ul ..,.

III I-'

nth e r Vari.lhl,·" ill the EqU:ltiolJ

M'lnu(ilcturl.np. Hil k

Supply M~rket Prices of nutt~r. Non F'll Drv Milk and Hhey **

Consumer Incom0. FopulilUon All-Food Pr1r.es

Cheese Prj CI? Supports

Cheese Price Supports

FIlrm to Retnil Price Sprend for Oillry Product s

L-_ __________________ .. -.----. - _ ___ --- - - __ . -.-_ _ .. _ ___ . __ ___ . _ . _. ____ . _ _

** These variables are endogenous to the complete system of equations in the Wh<1rton Dniry Hodel, but mily he regarded as essentially predetermined for present purposes.

2

Page 5: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

AMERICAN CHEESE PRODUCTION

Current period American cheese production is represented in the model as

a function of total supply of milk available for manufacturing purposes and the

relative returns to milk used in American cheese-dry whey production vs. butter-

nonfat dry milk production. (Seasonal dummy variables are used to reflect

seasonal variability in cheese yields.) Equation 1, below, shows OLS parame­

ter values and summary statistics.2

Values in parentheses underneath the coef-

ficients are t-statistics.

(1) CHEAPAM 472785.437 (-2.96)

30707.9492 Sl (-1. 84)

148637.812 S2 (-4.13)

- 104214.062 (-4.71)

S3 + 162908.625 CHWY/BUPD + (1.39)

60.9702 MILill'G (9.09)

where CHWY/BUPD

R2

(ADJ) = 0.886

CHI.JYRTAM BUTPDRRET

SEE = 25536. DW = 1.08

Total supply of manufacturing milk (MILMFG) is the residual of total milk

production in each period and the milk equivalent sales requirements of the so-

called "soft" products--packaged fluid milk (MILPMEFL), ice cream (MILPMEIC)

and cottage cheese (MILMPMECC). This is expressed as:

(2) MILMFG = MILAP MILPMEFL MILPMEIC MILPMECC

The estimated gross returns to milk used to produce the joint products--

butter and nonfat dry milk (BUTPDRRET) and American cheese and dry whey

(CHWYRTAM)--depends upon product yields and market prices for these four pro-

2Note that this specification does not include variables for other costs of - cheese production--e.g., labor, energy, etc. However these factors are relatively insignificant compared to manufacturing milk supplies, prices, and relative returns.

3

Page 6: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

ducts. Yield factbrs and dairy market price measures 3 used in the model to

calculate gross returns to butter-nonfat dry milk and American cheese-dry whey

are given as:

(3) CHWYRTAM (9.75 (CHEPMGBBL + 2.1) + .3 (BUTPW93CH - 4.0)

+ 5.87 CHEWHYPM) / 100

(4) BUTPDRRET = (4.3 (BUTPW93CH - .89) + 8.46 MILPWND) / 100

If we assume that per unit processing costs are roughly equivalent for butter-

powder operations and cheese-whey operations, the relative returns to cheese-

whey vs. butter-powder can be defined as:

(5) CHWY/BUPD CHWYRTAM / BUTPDRRET

The usual availability of excess, or "swing" capacity for butter/nonfat

dry milk and cheese/dry whey processing means that manfuacturing milk can be

shifted between these two alternatives in response to shifts in relative re-

turns. The existence of relatively more excess capacity for butter-nonfat dry

milk processing means that imbalances in favor of butter-nonfat dry milk are

usually resolved more quickly than imbalances in favor of cheese/dry whey.

AMERICAN CHEESE DEMAND

Commercial Sales

Since little or no data is routinely available from published sources on

either stocks and sales of processed cheese (which account for roughly 40% of

total American cheese sales), or stocks and sales at the retail level, commer-

3 Cheese and butter market prices in the gross returns equations are ad-justed for transportation costs.

4

I '

Page 7: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

cial demand for cheese has been modeled on a natural cheese equivalent basis

in terms of movement at the wholesale level. Also, since we find no empiri-

cal evidence to support the hypotheses that cheese demand is dependent upon

prices of substitute protein sources (red meats, poultry, fish, eggs, perhaps

milk itself), prices of substitutes are not factored in the model.

The commercial cheese sales forecasting equation is therefore derived as

follows. If we define cheese commercial demand per capita as a function of the

relative or real price of cheese at the retail level and real consumer disposable

income, then:

(6) CHECPAM f (CHEPR/?CCF*, RDPIPC)

The total derivative of this function is:

( 7) d CHECP AM aCHECPAM aCHEPR/PCCF*

+ aCHECPAM aRDPIPC

dCHEPR/PCCF*

dRDPIPC

Dividing by CHECPA}l, and multiplying the first term on the right by

CHEPR/PCCF* b RDPIPC CHEPR/PCCF* and the second term y RDPIPC yields:

(8)

If:

dCHECPAM CHECPAM

dCHECPAM

dCHEPR/PCCF*

aCHECPAM (aCHEPR/PCCF*

CHEPR/PCCF*) CHECPAM

dCHEPR/PCCF* + (aCHECPAM CHEPR/PCCF* aRDPIPC

RDPIPC CHECPAM)

dRDPIPC RDPIPC

The change versus year ago in the quarterly per capita commercial sales of American cheese.

The change versus year ago in the relative relationships between the quarterly average retail price index for cheese and the retail price index of all food.

5

Page 8: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

dRDPIPC The change versus year ago in quarterly real per capita disposable income.

Then the percent change v.ersus year ago in per capita sales of American cheese

is equal to the product of the price elasticity of cheese demand and the per-

cent change versus year earlier in the relative retail price of American

cheese--plus the product of the income elasticity of demand for American

cheese and the percent change versus year ago in real per capita income.

Consumer shifts in taste and preferences for cheese (not included in the

equation above) can be accommodated by estimating a constant bias term which

would be associated with using the model to simulate history. The percent

change in per capita cheese sales would b~ projected as:

(9) dCHECPAM

CHECPAM aCHECPAM

(aCHEPR/PCCF* CHEPR/PCCF*) CHECPAM

dCHEPR/PCCF* + (aCHECPAM CHEPR/PCCF* aRDPIPC

RDPIPC ) CHECPAM

+ dCONST

dRDPIPC RDPIPC

where the constant, dCONST, is estimated by regression of actual values for

dCHECPAM . CHECPAM agalnst outcomes associated with solving (8) for a number of histori-

cal periods.

4 The forecasting equation for American cheese per capita sales is thus:

(10) CHECPAM CHECPAM(-4) (l + (-.62 CHEPR/PCCF*L4)

+ (.44 RDPIPCL4)) + 60.613

where CHEPR/PCCF*L4 CHEPR/PCCF* - CHEPR/PCCF*(-4)

CHEPR/PCCF*(-4)

4price and income elasticity estimates were taken from Thraen, Hammond and Buxton, "An Analysis of Household Consumption of Dairy Products," Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Minnesota, 1976.

6

Page 9: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

and RDPIPCL4 RDPIPC - RDPIPC(-4) RDPIPC(-4)

Estimates of total population are then used to convert projected per-capita

sales of American cheese into total commercial sales of American cheese, i.e.,

(11) CHEDDAM CHECPAM * TCPOP

The retail price index of American cheese is forecast in the model as a

simple linear function of the Green Bay barrel price of American cheese and

the farm-to-retail price spread for dairy products:

(12) CHEPRAM 34.2452 + 0.5400 FRSDP + 0.4813 CHEPMGBBL (-6.04) (7.78) (5.55)

0.960 SEE 3.6680 DW 0.626

eee Purchases

The dairy price support program is effectuated through open market pur-

chases by the CCC of cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk. The amount of such

purchases depends upon the willingness of manufacturers to sell to the CCC at

specified price support levels and the amount of product available in excess

of commercial sales requirements. The willingness of manufacturers to sell

to the CCC obviously depends upon the relation between market prices for

dairy products and announced price supports.

Levels of manufacturing milk price supports are forecast by projecting

parity index levels (the index of prices paid by farmers), the milk parity

price, and the percent of parity at which milk is to be supported. Projected

milk support levels, together with forecast changes in cheese processing mar-

gin allowances, are used to project cheese price supports.

7

Page 10: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

The equation used in the model to represent eee purchases determines the

amount of American cheese sold to the eec in any period as a function of the

amount of excess supply in that period and the difference between cheese mar-

ket and cheese support prices in the current and prior periods. This equa-

tion, together with OLS parameter estimates and summary statistics, is:

(13) CHEGTPR 32150.5352 (-1.77)

1605.6819 CHEPM-PG (-2.50)

- 978.7410 CHEPM-PG(-l) + 0.1130 CHEAMXS (-2.37) (2.57)

where CHEPM-PG = CHEPMGBBL - CHEPGeH and

CHEAMXS

R2

(ADJ) = .662

CHEH CAM ( -1) + CHEAP AM

SEE 10520.

CHEDDAM

DW 1. 73

Though the CCC purchases only current production of American cheese, ex-

pectations of price support increases have some influence on the amount of

those purchases. This usually results in cheese market prices moving up in

anticipation of support changes, a behavior not well represented in the model.

Market Price

American cheese market prices are established through open bid purchase

and sale transactions on the Green Bay Wisconsin cheese exchange. These prices

are important not only because of the role they play in establishing terms of

trade on all natural and processed American cheese, but also because the

prices established for American cheese serve as the basis for wholesale

pricing of much "other types" cheese.

Cheese market price behavior is represented in the model by a price de-

pendent commercial stock demand equation that takes into account the relation-

ship between cheese market prices and cheese support prices, and the relation-

8

Page 11: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

ship between cheese market prices and the ratio of available commercial stocks

to commercial sales requirements. This equation represents cheese market price

behavior within a neighborhood of the support price for American cheese. Mar-

ket prices for American cheese may run as much as 4-6 cents below support prices

during periods of surplus production. This occurs because not all of the ex-

cess supply of cheese during such periods is eligible for sales to the CCC, and

a large enough surplus of commercial supplies relative to sales requirements

places downward pressure on cheese market prices. As commercial supplies

of cheese relative to sales begin to fall, however, cheese market prices rise

within the neighborhood of supports.

The OLS estimation results for the following equation confirm this price

. 5 behavl0r.

(14) CHEPMGGBL 66.8008 + 0.7228 CHEPGCH - 49.1208 CHEHC/DDAM4 (4.58) (9.28) (-4.54)

where CHEHC/DDAM4 = CHEHCAM/CHEDDAM + CHEHCAM(-l)/CHEDDAM(-l)

+ CHEHCAM(-2)/CHCPDAM(-2)

+ CHEHCAM(-3)/CHEDDAM(-3» / 4

.915 SEE = 4.1965 DW 1. 55

MODEL VALIDATION

The .cheese model was validated via dynamic simulation of the sixteen quar-

ters between 1976 and 1979. Quarterly simultaneous solutions of the model

equations were generated via the Gauss-Seidel solution algorithm. (Summary

outcomes are shown in Table 2.) Simulated values for American cheese commer-

cial sales were within an average 6.6% of actual values, but substantial down-

5Interpreting the equation as a stock demand relation implies that cheese inventory holders strive to maintain a "normal" stocks to sales ratio which. is conditioned by price considerations. A four quarter moving average stock demand ratio is used in this equation to smooth out normal seasonal variability in t~e stocks to sales relation.

9

Page 12: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

ward bias is evident. This bias in turn in biases simulated values for both

commercial stocks and CCC purchases. The presence of a lagged dependent

variable in the per capita demand relation is responsible for the under-

statement of sales which occurs in the first year and is carried forward in

each subsequent year simulated. This should not pose a serious forecasting

problem, however, since the cheese forecasts generated by the model have a

usual two year horizon, and the actual historical values for each quarter

of the first forecast year are known.

Despite the biases in the simulated values for commercial sales, stocks,

and CCC purchases, the model reproduces market price outcomes well. Root

mean squared differences between actual and simulated values averaged 4.1~,

or 3.8% during the periods simulated. The mean of simulated values was within

1.7C of the mean of actual values. Accurate simulation of American cheese

market price outcomes led to accurate simulation of American cheese retail

price outcomes. Root mean squared differences averaged only 1.6% and no

bias is evident.

Table 2. Summary Statistics [or Cheese Hodel Validation

Mean of Root Mean Root Me~n He~n of Simulated Sq\ta r~d 1- Squ:-trE"o Act1l~1~ Values Df{ f erence~ Differenr.es

American Cllees e Prodtlction 522 . 1 518.0 19.9 4.0 (qOlnrterly ~lIms - HIlll"n n'R)

American CheeRe, Commercial Sal e s 498.5 481. 6 31.2 6.6 (Quarterly Sums - Hillion n's)

Ameoric(ln Chee!=:e, Commercial Stocks 199.6 428.4 40.8 12 . 6 (Encl of Quarter - Hillion /I' 8)

Americ:an Cheese, CCC Purch~",es 17.0 31. 2 20 . 6 (Quarterly Sums - Hillion 8's)

American CheeRe, r.reen Bay Ba rrell 97 . 8 99.5 3.8 4. I Prices (Quarterly Averages - Cent s Per round)

American Cheese, Reta 11 Price 10) . 8 103.0 1.6 1.7 Index (1977-100)

10

Page 13: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

SIMULATION RESULTS

eee purchases of American cheese under the dairy price support program

averaged 76.8 million #'s between 1976 and 1979. It is expected that such

purchases could run as high as 150 million D's in 1980. Manufacturing milk

price supports for the 1976-1979 period were set to 80% of parity prices for

milk through most of this period. The results of our analysis indicate that

eee purchases would have averaged 32 million D's less during the 1976-1979

period if milk price supports had been set to 75% instead of 80% parity.

However cheese market prices and total cheese industry sales would also have

been less. Table 3 compares the actual and simulated outcomes for American

cheese commercial sales, market prices, and eee purchases associated with a

75% parity manufacturing milk price support. The decrease in market prices

for cheese associated with this support level averaged 2.8¢ over the four

years simulated. This decrease would have been sufficient to increase com-

mercial sales about 10 million D's per year, but would not have been enongh

to offset the average 32 million # decrease in industry sales to the GGG.

Total revenues to the. cheese industry would have suffered both from the reduc-

tion in prices and the net reduction in total sales.

Table 3. Simulation Results for A 75% of Parity Milk SUppOTt Levpl. 1976-1979

Year

1976

1977

1978

1979

Avg.

Amer lcan Cheese Commerci,1l Sales

Actual Slmul1<ted Difference

(Million U's)

1906.8 1912.3 -5.5

1942.7 1957.9 -15.2

2042.4 2051.2 -8.8

2084.1 2093 . 4 -9.3

1994 2003.7 -9.7

American Chee~e Green Bay Market Barrell Prices

Actual Simulated Differenc e

(Cents)

88.0 86.4 1.6

89.6 85 . 5 4. I

100.6 98 . 0 2.6

112.9 110.0 2 . 9

97 . 8 95.0 2.8

11

CCC I'lIrch"s e~

ActuAl S!.m111:tted 01 f f e renc e

(MHli on fI' s )

38 . 0 25 . I 12 .9

148.5 100 . 6 47. 9

44.3 7.3 .17.0

1,0.6 11.9 28.7

67.8 36.2 31.6

~----------'-------------------------- I-'----------------------------~~-------------------=

Page 14: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

VARIABLE NP01E

BUTI'1-I93CH

BUTI'DRRET

CHEAP .... '!

::HECPA.'1

CHEDDA.'1

CHEGTI'R

CHEHCA}!

CH::?GCH

CHEPR/?CC?*

CHEP~lGBBL

CHEI.JHYPM

FRSDP

'lIL~

~lIL.'1FG

~ILPl1EFL

MILPMECC

l1ILP~!EIC

MILPWND

PCCF*

Table 1. Cheese Model Variable Descriptions, Units and Source.

DESCRIPTION

WHOLESALE PRICE OF GRADE AA BUTTER (93-SCORE, CHICAGO)

GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN BUTTER/POWDER PRODUCTION. GROSS RETURNS AVAILABLE TO MILK USED TO PRODUCE THE JOINT PRODUCTS, BUTTER AND NONFAT DRY MILK, DEPEND UPON THE MARKET PRICES OF THESE TWO PRODUCTS, ESTIMATES OF THESE RE­TURNS PROVIDE AN INDICATION OF WHAT ~~FAC­TURERS WOULD BE WILLING TO PAY FOR XILK WHICH IS USED FOR BUTTER/POWDER PRODUCTION

.~'1ERICAN CHEESE PRODUCTION

AMERIC&~ CHEESE, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION

AMERICAN CHEESE, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE

A.~RICAN CHEESE, CCC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS)

_~IERICA.~ CHEESE, COMMERCL~ ENDING STOCKS

~'1ERICA.~ CHEESE, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE (CHEDDAR BLOCK)

AMERICAN CHEESE, DEFLATED RETAIL ?RICE INDLX

A.'1ERICA.~ CHEESE, GREEN BAY :1ARKET PRICE (CHEDDAR BARRELS)

DRY I-mEY MARKET PRICE (HUMAN FOOD, CENTRAL STATES FOB)

GROSS RETURNS TO XILK USED IN A.'1ERICA.~ CHEESE PRODUCTION. GROSS RETUfu~S AVAILABLE TO XILK USED TO PRODUCE THE JOINT ?RODUCTS . A.'lERICAN CHEESE AND WHEY. DEPEND UPON THE MARKET PRICE OF THESE TWO PRODUCTS. ESTIMATES OF THESE RETURNS PROVIDE AN INDICATION OF WHAT ~~FAC­TURERS WOUlD BE IHLLING TO PAY FOR MILK WHICH IS USED FOR AMERICA.~ CHEESE/WHEY PRODUCTION.

INDEX OF THE FARM-RETAIL SPREAD FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS

TOTAL US MILK PRODUCTION

)1A.'1UFACTURING MILK. A}lOUNT AVAILABLE FOR CHEESE &'/D BUTTER PRODUCTION

ESTIMATED PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT -OF FLUID SALES (FAT BASIS)

ESTIMATED PRODUCERS XILK EQUIVALENT OF CREAMED COTTAGE CHEESE PRODUCTION (SOLIDS 3ASIS)

ESTL'1ATED PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT OF ICE CREA.'1 PRODUCTION (FAT BASIS)

WHOLESALE PRICE OF NONFAT DRY MILK

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. ALL FOOD

12

UNITS

CE'lTS /LB

S/CWT

THOU LB

LBS

THOU LB

THOU LB

THOU LB

CENTS/LB

1967=100

CENTS / LB

CENTS / LB

S/ cwr

1967=100

BIL LB

XIL LB

l1IL LB

XIL LB

NIL LB

CENTS/LS

1967=100

SOURCE

DAIRY :1ARKET NE',]S

TRANSFOR..'1ATION

DAIRY PRODUCTS

DAIRY SITUATION

DAIRY SITt!ATIO~1

DAIRY PRODUCTS

COLD STORAGE REPORT

DAIRY SITUATION

TRANFOR.'1ATION

DAIRY :1ARKET NEWS

DAIRY PRODUCTS

T~'1FOR..'!""'!:ON

AG OUtlOOK

MILK PRODUCTI ON

TRA..'lfSFOR.'!ATIO:-l

TRANS FOR."ATI ON

TRANSFOR..'1.',TIOOI

T~'1SFOR.'lA..TIO :-l

DAIRY PRODUCTS

3LS

Page 15: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

, *INDfX • _ zo ISTAN

BANK WFFATs.nAIRY~MON

VARIA8U:

8FCF'LU BFCPMI( BUTAP BUTDO BUTGU BUTGu"1[ BUTHC BUTHC/OD BUTHE 8UTHT BUTPO/CH~Y 8UTPORRET 8UTPM_PS BUTPR BUTPSGACH aUTPWIJ2CH aUTPWIJ]CH BUUS SUTleS/no CASEINM! CHEA"'XS CHEA"'lCSiDD CHEAPAL CHEAPA'" CHfAPOT tHEDDAM CHEDDOT CHEGTPR CHEGTPR~£ CHEHc/nDAM CHEHCA'" CHEHEA'" CHEHUL CHEHTA~ CHEHTOT CHEMy CHEMU'" CHEMIOT CHEPGCH CHEP",.p," CHEP"'GR~I( CHEP"'GR~L CHEPMWiAP~1C CHEPMWUPBL CHEPR4'" CHEWHVAP

FI~nM Tn

i'HnOl - IIJAo05 107101 - j«JAOOo i 05ljOI - 1011005 1051i02 - loAo05 10'5'i01 - 1011005 IIJSIjOI - I«JIIoo5 105501 - 10AQOo losr;02 - loM05 1051i01 • t«JAQOo 105-;01 • ,«JIIOOo 1071101 . - 10"005 107001 • iOAQ05 10bljOI • 10"000 101001 - l'JACOb 1002011 • 10"OOq 105'501 • 1011001> ,00501 • ,0AOOo 105502 • 1011005 1050;02 • .i 01\005 10750 1 • '08005 '07001 • 10Aonli 10750 1 • 1011001.1 105150 1 - IOAo05 105501 • 10AO(l5· 105-;01 - 10"0(15 10750 1 • lOIlOOu 107,)01 • 10AOOu 107001 • loA005 107001 • 10Il1005 l'nnol • I!JAOOU 1050;01 • 1.!JAOOb 105'501 • 10,,000 107001 • 101l00b 105'501 • 1«J"OOI> 107001 • 10Aoob ,Q'5501 • ~ollon5 107'501 - IQl1005 107-;01 • tql1005 105'501 - IqAOOQ lonol - jq"OOI> 1 07')0 1 • 1C~"0()7 107]01 • 10"007 10oljOl • 1011000 100110 5 • I«JAOOO 107,)0 1 • 10,,000 1071)01 • 1011005

.. -~ " " . I I : , 1 'Ie.

DESCRIPTION

"'ILIC. ~UTTER'AT CONTENT or rLUID SALES MjlK. AVER4GE 8F CnNT~NT OF ALL MILl( SOLD TO PLANTS , DEALERS RUTTER. PRODUCTION RUTTER. COMMERCI4L DISAPPEARANCE RuTTER. CCC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELrVER~ BASIS) A.UTTER. CCC PRICE suppnRT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS RUTTER. COMMERCIAL ENOrNG STOCKS RUTTER. STOCI( DEMAND RATIO RUTTER. GOVERNMENT eCCc) ENDING STOCKS BUTTER. TOTAL ENOING STOCKS (COMMERCIAL' GOVERNMENT) MILK. GROSS RETURNS, BtlTTER/POWDER PROD I AM CHEESE PROD MILK, GROSS RETURNs fO MILK USED IN BUTTER/POWDER PRODucTION RUTTER, GRADE A OR BETTER, DIFF BETWEEN MARKET , SUPPORT PRICE 8UTTER. RETAIL · PRI~E INDEX RUTTER. SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE. GRADE A OR eETTER, CHICAGO RUTTER. WHOLESALE PRICE OF GRADE A C02-SCORE.CHICAGO) RuTTER. WHOLESALE PRICE OF GRADE AA (q3-SCORE,CHICAGO) RuTTER. SURPLUS, ExCEss OF SuPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SALES RuTTER. SUPPLY I DFMANO RATIO CASEIN. IMPORTS CHEESE, AMER, SURP(US, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SALES CHEESE. AMERICAN, SUPPLY I DEMAND RATIO CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL (AMERICAN, OTHER TyPES), PRODUCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN. PRODUCTION CHEESE~ OTHER THAN AMERICAN, PR06uCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.OMMERCIAL DIS4PPEARANCE CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, COMMERCIAL nISAPP!4RANCE CHEESE. AMERICAN" eCC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY SASIS) CHEESE. AMERICAN, ecC SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS CHEESE. AMERICAN, STOCK DEMAND RATIo CHEESE. AMERYCAN, ~OMMERCIAL ENOINC STOCKS CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN. GOVERNMENT ENDING STOCICS CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL. ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN. TOTAL ENnING STOCKS CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. ALL IMPORTS CHEESE. IMPORTS, AMERICAN CHEESE. IMPORTS, OTHER NATURAL CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRIcE CHEESE~ CHEDDAR, OTFFERENCf BETWEEN M4RKET , SUPPORT PRJC! CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE CHEESE~ CHEDDAR aARRELS, GREEN RAY MARKET PRIC~ CHEESE. CHEDDAR ~LnCKS. WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRIC! CHEESE. CHEDDA~ BARRELS, WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRICf CHEESE. AMERICAN, RETAIL PRICE INDEX ~HEY. TOTAL PRODUCTION. HUMAN, ANIMAL GRADE

UNITS

PERCENT PERCENT THOU LR THOU LR THOU LR THOU loR THOU loR RATIO THOU LR THOU LB RATIO S/CWT CENTS/L8 ,qbhlOO CENTS/L8 CENTS/LB CENTS/La THOU L8 RATIO THOU LS THOU La RATIO THOU La THOU LB THOU 1.8 THOU L8 THOU LA THOU L8 THOU I.R RATIO THOU lA THOU LR THOU LA THOU LR THOU L8 THOU LR THOU 1.8 THOU I.R CENTS/LI!I CENTS/l8 CENTS/I.R CENTS/LF.I CENTS/I.B CENTS/l8 Df'C 10.,,.,00 THOU LA

SnURCE

TRANSFORMA TInN AG PRICES DAIRY PRnDUCTS TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMAT ION TAANSFORt04ATION TRANSFORMATION COLD STORAGE COLD STORAGE TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION CPI.BLS TAPE DAIRY SITUATION DAIRV MICT NEwS DAIRY MI(T NEWS TRANSFORMA TION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY MKT NfWS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMA TION TRANsrORI\oIIA TION TRANSrORM4TION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMA TION TRANSFORMA TION COLO STORAGt: CoLO STORAGE CoLO STORAGE TRANSFORMA TION DAIRY MI<T NEWS DAtRY MI(T NEWS TRANSFORMATION DAIRY SITUATION TRANS~ORMATION DAIRY MKT NEwS DAIRY MKT NEWS DAIRY MKT NEWS DAIRY MKT NEWS CPI-SLS TAPE TRANSFORMATION

Page 16: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

*INOfX • - ZQ ISTAN

BANK W~FATs.nAIRV~MON

VARIABU:

8Ftf'LU BFt PMK SUUp BUTOn eUTGU BUTGUM£ BUTHC BUTHC/nD Bun-lE BUTHT 8UTPD/CHWy BUTPORRET 8UTP"'-pS BUTPR 8UTPSGACH BUTPW91t H SUTPW9JCH SUUS BUTXs/nD CASEIN"'! CHEA"'XS CHEA"'XS/DD CHEAPAL CHEAP A'" CHEAPOT CHEOOA'" CHEODOT CHEGTPR CHEGTPR"'[ CHEtic/nOA", CHEHCA'" CHEHEA'" CHEHTAL CHEHTA~ CHEHTOT CHEMy CHEMJA'" CHEMIOT CHEPGCH CHEP",-pG CHEP"'GRRK CHEPMGRBL CHEPMWjAPBK CHEPMWUPBL CHEPRAM CHEWHYAP

FR"M Tn

i91001 - 191100'5 107101 - 10AOOO i05-;01 - 1911005 1951j02 - IOllon5 ,951j01 - 1011005 10S~01 • 1011005 105C;01 - 1011000 1«15t:;02 • IqMO'S \CJ51j01 • iqAOOb 1950;01 • 10ROOo 101uOl . - 1911005 i cnoo 1 - 10ROO'S 1000;01 • IGlAOOo l cnoOI • l cMOOb 10b20U • 10AOOq lqS'501 • 10ROOo ~qo'301 • '9110(\0 lq5'502 • 101\005 10'S0;02 .j OMo5 107'501 • 108005 ;07001 • 1011004 101'50 1 • 101l00~ 10'S'501 • IOAo05 10'5'501 • 101\005 1050;01 • 10A00'5 101'50 1 • ~OR004 101'501 -101\00~ 107001 • loR005 i07001 • 108005 i07nOI • 10"OO~ 10so;01 • 10ROOo 1<15'501 • 10MO" 101001 • 1011 000 105'501 • 10Aooo 101001 • 10llono )0'5'501 • l.oIIon5 101C;01 • 1011005 1010;01 • 101100'5 1<15C;01 • 10AOOO i 0 7301 • JOAono 1070;01 • 1011001 1 <1730 I • 1011007 I<lb«;ol - 10AOOo 1<101105 • '011000 1<17r;ol - 1011000 107'501 • 1011005

<": .

, ' " . I I :, 1 ~J C •

DESCRIPTION

"'ILK, "UTTER'AT CONTENT OF FLUID SALES MILK, AVERAGE BF CnNT~NT OF ALL MILK SOLO TO PLANTS' DEALERS RUTTER. PRODUCTION RUTTER. COMMERCIA~ DISAPPEARANCE RUTTER, CCC PRICE ~uppnRT PURCHASES eDE~IVERY BASIS) . ~uTTER. CCC PRICE ~uppnRT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS BUTTER. COMMERCIA~ ENDING STOCKS RUTTER. STOC~ DEMAND RATIO RUTTER. GOVERNMENT eCCC) ENDING STOCKS RuTTER. TOTA~ ENDING STOCKS (COM"'ERCIA~ , GOVERNMENT) MILK, GROSS RETURNS, BIITTER/POWDER PROD I AM CHEESE PROD MILK, GROSS RETURNS ~O MI~K USED IN BUTTER/POWDER PRODUcTION RUTTER. GRADE A OR_BETTER, DIFF BETWEEN MAR~ET , SUPPORT PRICE BUTTER. RETAIL pRICE INDEX RUTTER. SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE, GRADE A OR BETTER, CHICAGO RuTTER. WHOLESALE PRICE OF GRADE A cQ2-SCORE,CHICAGO) RUTTER. WHO~ESALE PRICE OF GRADE AA (o]-SCORE,CHICAGO) BUTTER. SURP~US, E~CESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SAL[S RuTTER. SUPp~Y I DF.MANn RATIO CASEIN. IMPORTS CHEESE. AMER, SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL IAL!S CHEESE. AMERICAN, SUPPLY I DEMAND RATIO CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL (AMERICAN, OTHER TYPES), PRODUCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN, PRODIICTION CHEESE~ OTHER THAN AMERICAN, PRO~UCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.OMMERCIA~ DISAPPEARANCE CHEESE, OTHER NATURAL, COMMERCIA~ nISAPPEARANCE CHEESE. AMERICAN" ecc PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY aASle, CHEESE, AMERICAN, ecC SUpPORT PURCHASES, MI~K EQUIVALENTS CHEESE. AMERICAN, ~TOC~ DEMAND RATto CHEESE, AMERICAN, COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN, GOVERNMENT ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL, ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN. TOTAL ENnING STOCKS CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. ALL IMPORTS CHEESE. IMPORTS, AMERICAN CHEESE. IMPORTS, OTHER NATURAL CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRIcE CHEESE. CHEDDAR, DyFFERENCE BETWEEN MARKET , SUPPORT PRle! CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, GREEN SAY MARKET PRIcE CHEESE~ CHEDnAR BARRELS, GREEN BAY MARKET pRIC~ CHEESE. CHEDDAR RLnCKS. WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRIC! CHEESE. CHEDDA~ 8ARRE~S, WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRIC[ CHEESE. AMERICAN, RETAtL PRICE INDEX WHEY, TOTAL PRODUCTION. HU"'AN , ANIMAL GRADE

UNITS

PERCENT PERCENT THOU LR THOU LR THOU LR THOU LR THOU loR RATIO . THOU loR THOU La RATIO S/CWT CENTS/LB t 001.100 CENTS/LA CENTS/LB CENTS/U~ THOU LB RATIO THOU loB THOU L8 RATIO THOU loB THOU La THOU ~8 THOU loB THOU L~ THOU 1.8 THOU LR RATIO THOU loR THOU loR THOU loR THOU LR THOU 1.8 THOU La THOU 1.8 THOU LR CENTS/L8 CENTS/LB CENTS/loR CENTS/L8 CENTS/L8 CENTS/LB ore I 01U t 00 THOU LR

SoURCE

TIUNSFORMA T I ON AG PRICES DAIRY p~nOUCTS TRANSFORMATION DAIRY P~ODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFOR~ATION TRANSFORMA TI ON COLO STORAGE COI.D STORAGE Tj:lANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORM A TION CpY-SLS TAPE DAIRY SITUATION DAIRY MKT NEWS DAIRY MKT NEWS TRANSFORMATION

. TRANSFORMATION DAIRY MKT NfWS TRANSFOR"'ATION TRANSFORMA TI ON DAIRY PRODUCTS DAl RY PRODUC T S TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFOR"'ATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMA TION tOLD STORAGE COLO STORAGE COLD STORAGE TRANSFORMATION DAIRY MICT NE.WS DAIRY MKT NEWS TRANSFORMA TION DAIRY SITUATION TRANS~O~MA TION OAIRV MKT NEwS DAIRY MKT NEWS DAIRY MKT NEWS DAIRY MKT NEWS CpI-BLS TAPE TRANSFORMATION

Page 17: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

CHEWHYApA CHEI'IHYAPH CHEWHY"D CHEWHYHA CHEWHYHH CHEWHYHT CHEWHYHT/DD CHEWHYPM CHWY/BIIPD CHWYIUAM CHWYRTMO COWPF FLU+MFCCAM FL.UCRM FMOITF

. FRSDP FRSFQ MARPR MFGCRM "'UPF "'IL.AA "'ILAP MIL.APCC "'ILAPIC MILApND "'IL.DI)FL. MILDnL' MIL.DnNn MILDnwH MILGUNO MIL.He/MND MIL.HCND "'ILlRWH MILM'G MILMFG'.'R "'ILNI)XS MILNl))(S/DD MILPA MILP, MILPMECC MILPMEFL MILPMEic MILPRIC MILPSNn MIL.PWNI) "'ILRTNCST MIMMwP, MLKCQW'.-E MLKCQWlIpjljI MLKFnRTo ML.I<HEFRp NFPM/N,pS PFPAT-

jq7C;OI - lQAOOS Iq7C;OI - IQMo5 lQ7f102 - 'QAOc)S lQ7bOI - IQA005 lQ7bOl - IqMo5 iQ7bOl - 'QAonS lQ7b02 - 'QMo5 lQ7UOI - lQA005 lQ7aOi • IQA005 lQ7aOI - 'QMOS lQ7t101 - IQA005 lQb301 - IqA005 lQ7;OI - ,QA005 lq7101 - tqM(lS lQ700 1 - lqAOOb iQ7(101 - ,QA004 lQ7001 - IQAon4 iQ3QOl - iQAOOb lQ7'Ol - IQA005 lQb301 - lqAOOb lqSC;Ol - ,qMnb 1 QSC;O 1 - I qMnb lQS'501 - lqAC)OS lQS'501 - IqMn5 lQsr;ol - lQAOOS 1 Q700 I - 1 qAO(lS lq7001 • "~A005 lq7002 • IqA005 lQ7(10t - I'H'on5 lQ7001 - ,QA005 lQ7no2 - lQA005 l Q7001 - l'Hloo5 1Q3QOl - lqMOb lQ7101 -lqAon5 l Q7,ol - lqAOC)S lQ7002 - lQM(I'5 lQ7002 - 'qAons lq7001 - lqAOOb lQb301 - IqAonb iQ7iol - lqAOOS lq7'OI - lQAOOS lQ7101 - lqAonS lq7501 - IqAonb I QbL»04 - I qAOoq lq700 1 - 'qAO(lS · lQb301 - 'QAOc)o lQS'501 - IQAOOo lQSC;Ol - IqAOOo lQ7A02 • lQA005 lqb301 • lqAOnb lC~o301 • lqAonO lQ7nol - ,qAon5 l-n;Ol - ,qAOOb

.. . 1\ .\ " T I I Iff .\ I'.j C •

WHfY, pRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, pRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, TOTAL COMMERCIAL DtSAPPEARANCE, HUMAN, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, ~NDING STOCKS, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, TOTAL COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN' ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, STOCK DEMAND RATIO WHEY, MARKET PRICE. HUMAN FOOD, CENTRAL STATfS FOB MILK, GROSS RETURNS, AM CHEESE PROD I RUTTERIPOWDER PROD MILK, GROSS RETURN~ TO MIL.K USED IN AMF.RICAN CHEESE PRODUCTION MILK, GROSS RETURN9 TO MILK USED IN MoZZARELLA CHEESE PRODUCTN

. cowS, AVERAGE PRleF RECEIVED BY FARMERS, US CREAM, AMOUNT AVAI(ARLE FROM BUTTER PRODUCTION CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILA8LF. FROM FLUID SALES PROPORTION OF TOTA L FLUID SALES W~ItH ARE MARKET ORO!R SALES nAIRY pRODUCTS, FARM-RETAIL SPREAD FATS AND OILS, FARM_RETAIL SPREAD MARGARINE, RETAIL PRICE INDEX CREAM, AMOUNT AVAI~A8~E FROM NONFAT DRY MILK PRODUCTION MILK, ~LIGIBL.f FOR FLUtD MARKET, AVG PRICE REC'D BY FARMERS MILK, PRODUCTION PFR COW MILK, pRODUCTION CREAMED COTTAGE CH~ESE, PRODUCTION ICE CREAM, PRODUCTTON NONFAT DRy MILK, HVMAN FOOD, SPRAY, ROLLER, PRODUCTION MILK, ESTIMATED TOTAL FLUID MILK SALES (PRODUtT WEIGHT BAStS) MILK,LOWFAT , SKIM, PACKAGED SALES, FED OROER MARKETS ONL¥ NONFAT DRY MILK, TnTAL COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE WHOLE MILK, PACKAGF.D SALES, FED OROER MARKETS ONLY NONFAT DR¥ MILK, Cee PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) NONFAT DRY MILK, STOCK DEMAND RATIO NONFAT DRy MILK, COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS WHOLE ~ILK, RETAIL PRIcE INDEX , MANUFACTURING MIL.K. AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR CHEESE' BUTTER PROD MANUFACTURING MILK.' AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR BUTTER/PowDER PROD NONFAT.DRY MILK, SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL' SALES NON FAT DRY MILK, SUPPLY I DEMAND RATIO I

MILK, PARITY PRICE OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS MILK, ALL, AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS CAEAME" COTTAGE CHF.ESE. EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV (SOLID BASIS) MILK, EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV OF FLUI~ SALES (FAT BASIS) ICE CAEA"', E9TIMATFD PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT (FAT BASIS) ICE CREAM' RELATEo PRODUCTS, AETAIL PRICE INDEX NONFAT DRY MILK, SIIPPORT PRICE NONFAT DRY MILK, WHOLESALE PRICE MILK, DAIRV AATION COST, lbl PROTEIN MILK, CLASS II, MI~NEsoTA-WISCONSIN, pRICE MILK COWS, ESTIMATFD AVERAGE NUMBER ON FARMS ~ILK COWS, UTILITY. PRYCE, WISCONSIN AUCTIONS MILK-FEED PRICE RATIO MILK COWS, AVG PRIr.E REC BY FARMERS, DAIRY HERD REP~ACEM!NTS NONFAT DRY MILK, MiRKET PRICE I SUPPORT PRICE PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. AUTOS , TRUCKS

THOU L8 THOU ~8 THOU LR THOU LR THOU LB THOU LA RATIO CENTS/L" RATIO SICWT SICwT SICWT MYL La MIL LB RATIO tQohSon 'QbhloO lqe,7.too MIL LB S/eWT LB MIL La THOU L8 THOU GAL THOU I.B MI~ ~8 MIL L8 THOU La MIL L8 THOU L8 RATIO THOU ~8 lQe,hloO MIL L8 MIL LB THOU LB RATIO SlcwT SlcwT MIL LB MIL LB M1L LR DEC lQn.100 CENTS/LB CENTS/LS SITONS S/CWT THOU MEAD DOL RATIO OOL/HEAIl RATIO lQtO-lU100

DAIRV PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS

, TRANSFO~MAT ION DAIRY P~ODUCTS !'lAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFOR!t1ATION TRANSFORMA TION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION AG PRICES TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFOR~A TION AG OUTLOOK AG OUTLOOK CpI-SLS TAPE TRANSFORMA TION AG PRICES MILK PRODUCTION TRANSFORMA TION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION FED MILK ORD!R TRANSFORMATION FED MIL.K ORDER DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMAT ION DAIRY PRODUCTS CpI-8LS TAPE TRANSFORMA TION TRANSFORMA TION TRANSFOHMATION' TRANSFORMATION AG PRICES AG ' PRICES TRANSFORMA TION TRANSFORMA nON TRANSFORMA TI ON CpI-SLS TAPE DAIRY SITUATION DAIRY PRODUCTS AG PRICES DAIRY MI(T NEWS MILK PRODUC TI ON DI\IRV MKT NE.WS TRANSFORMATION AG PRtCES TRANSFORMA TION AG PRICES

Page 18: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

... - . PFPe,. PFPC* PFPCM. PFPF. PFPFE* PFPF'L* PFPFM. PFPI* PF'Pl * PF'POM.

- PFPPI* _ PFPPI1TWR. PF'PS* PFPSC.

- PFPTM. PFPTh PFPI ... PF'PWlh

- PFPZ* - WH£'I'PMiN'ProI

WH'I'CONAPA WH'I'CONAPH WH'I'CONPMA WH'I'CONPMH WH'I'licAPA WH'I'lACAPH WH'I'LACHTH WH'I'PDLtDMAPH WHVPnL/DMHTH WH'I'PDLAPA WH'I'POLAPH WHVPOMAPH WHVPOMHTH WH'I'SI!I8APA WHYSW8ApH WMIT'L

i q170 I • 1 qMllo \9U;0\ • 19AOOo tt~1101 • IQ/lOOo Iq1001 • 19"000 197701 • IqAOtlo IQ7t101 • Iql\OOo i97101 - Iql\OOo Iq1001 • IqAOl2 19700 I - i QAOOo l Q7001 - tQI\OOo IQ7001 • IQI\OOo IQ7!101 - tcJROOo 197701 - IqAOOo 197101 - tcJAOl2 IQ700 1 - IqMtlb jQ7tlOI - IqAOl2 iQ7(101 - IQI\OOb 1 Q700 1 - 1 QAOllb l Q1701 - i9A005 1 Q7C10 1 - I QAOOS lQ1501 • 1911005 iQ7'501 • JlJAOOS U7'501 • 19A005 lQ7501 • 191\005 IQ7'501 • t9AOtl5 tcJ7'501 - 19110(15 1 Q7'50 1 - 19M05 IQ7'501 • 191\005 197'501 • 19110tl5 lQ7'501 • j9A005 iQ1'501 • ,QIIOtllj IQ7501 - 19A005 lQ7501 - ,9A005 U7'501 - 191\005 lQ7'501 • teJII005 i97001 - '911005

-" ",,111" , If n INC •

P~ICES PAID 8'1' FARMERS, BUILOING , FENCING P~ICES PAID 8'1' F'ARMERS, ALL COMMODITIES' SERVICES PRICES PAID By F'A~"'ERS, AG~ICULTURAl CHEMICALS P~ICES PAID 8'1' FAR"'E~S, FEED PRICES PAID 8'1' FARME~S, FUELS & ENERGY P~ICES PAID By FARMERS, FEEDER LIVESTOCK PRICES PAID BY FARME~S, FARM' MOTOR SUPPLIES PRICES PAID RY F'ARMERS, INTEREST PRICES PAID 8'1' FARMERS, FAMILY LIVING PRICES PAID 8'1' FARMERS, OTHER MACHINERY PRICES PAID BY FA~MERS, PROOUCTION ITEMS PRICES PAID 8'1' FARMERS, PRODUCTN ITEMS, INT, TAXES &WAqE RATE PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, SEED PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FARM SERVICES' CASH RENT P~ICES PAID BY FARMERS, TRACTORS & SELF_PROPELLED MACHINERY PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, TAXES PRICES PO BY FARMERS, COMMODIT'I' , SERVCS INT. TAX' WAGE RATE­PRICES PAID By FARMERS, WAGE RATES PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FERTI~IZER WHEY, PRICE RATIO, WHEY I NONFAT DRy MILK WHEY, CONDENSED, SnLID CONTENT, SWEET, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, CONDENSED, SnlIO CONTENT, SWEET, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS. SWEET, MARKET PRICE, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, CONDEN5ED SOLIDS, SWEET, MARKET PRICE, HUMAN GRADE ­LACTOSE, PROOUCTION, ANI~AL GRADE LACTOSE, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LACTOSE, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY. PARTIAL~Y DELACTOSED/DEMINERALIZED, PRODUCTION,HUMAN GRADE WHEY, PART~ OELACTOSED/QEMINERA~IZED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, PARTIAL~Y DELACT~SED, PRODUCTION, ANIMA~ GRADE WHEY, PARTIALLV DELACTOSEO, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, ~ARTIALLY DEMINERALIZED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADf WHEY, PARTIALLV DEMINERALIZED, ENDI~G STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, SOLIDS IN WET BLENDS, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, SOLIDS IN WE~ 8LENDS, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE PROPORTlONO, TOTAL F~UID SALES WHICH ARE WHOLE MILl< SALES

lCJ10-1U·l00 tCJ10-IUltlO !QIO-lu.tOO 1910-1a-100 IQIO-IUIOO 1910-1U.100 IQ10.lIaIOO IQIO-Ia-l00 lQIO-IU\OO 1910-1a-IOO IQI0-1U.l00 lCJ\O-Ia-IOO lQl0.lul00 IQI0-IU.100 tQl0-lutOO t910.IUltlO IQ10-lutOO IQIO-ICIstOO IQtO-tutOD RATIO THOU LR THOU LB CENTS/LB CENTS/LB THOU LB THOU LB TIo40U LA THOU LB THOU LA THOU LR THOU L8 THOU LR THOU L8 THOU LA THOU L8 RATIO

AG PRICES AG PRICE.S AG P~ICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG pRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG P~ICES AG PRICES TRANSFOR~ATION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRV PRODUCTS DAIRV PRODUCTS DAIRV PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PROOUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PHODUcis DAIRY PRODUCTS ~RANS'ORMATION

Page 19: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

"" *INDEX • - Zq ISTAN

BAN~ ~E'ATS.nAIRY.QTR

VARIA8LE

BFCFLU BFCPMJ( BUTAP BUTCP BUTDO BUTGU BUTGUME BUTHC BUTHC/OD BUTHE BUTHT BUTMKAL BUTPD/CHWY BUTPDRRET BUTPM_PS BUTPR B_UJ£R/PCCf' .. jI BUTPSGACH 8UTPw92CH BUTPw93CH SUUS SUUS/DO CASEINMI CHEAMXS CHEAMXS/DD CHEM'AL CHEAPAM CHEAPOT CHEePAM CHEepOT CHEDDAM CHEDoOT CHEGTPR CHEC;TPRME CHEHC/OOAM CHEHCA'" CHEHEA'" CHEHTAL CHEHTAM CHEHTOT CHEM! CHEMUM CHEMIOT CI1EMKAL CHEPGCH CHEP"'.PG

FROM TO

,91QOl • 191\001 lQ7101 - 19800l 195501 • 19AOOI lqS502 • 19AOOI l q '5502 • 19AOlli lq5501 • 19AOOI IQ5501 • 1911001 lQ5liOI • 1911002 IQ5502 • 19MOOI 195501 • 1911002 195.,0 1 • 191\002 190002 • 1911001 lQnol • IIJI\OOI 197001 • 1911001 19700·1 • 191\002 193QOl • 1911002 1.9.390L • _19.8002 197001 • 1911003 ,95';01 • 19A002 190501 • 19MOl 195502 • 1911001 195r;02 • 1911001 197501 • 191\001 197001 • 1911001 IQ7001 • IQ/lOOI lQ.,501 • 19/1001 195501 • 191\002 195501 - 198001 19'7001 - Iql\OOI 191001 • Iq8001 19'7001 - Iql\OOI 19'7001 - Iql\OOI 19'7001 - 198001 19'7001 • lq"OOI l Q'7001 • 1911001 195'501 - 19,,002 1Q5501 - 19A002 19'7001 - 198002 IQS501 • IQl1002 IQ'700 1 -191\002 195'501 • 191\001 191'501 • 191\001 19'71501 • 191101)1 190702 • 19AOOI lQSII)OI • 1911003 I qno 1 • lC~1\002

~HA~TON [FA INC.

DfSCHIPTION

"'ILK, BUTTERFAT CONTENT OF FLUID SALES MILK, AVERAGE Bf' CONTENT OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS & DEAL~RS RUTTER, PRODUCTION BUTTER, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION RUTTER, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE RUTTER. cec PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) RUTTER, CCC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS BUTTER. COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS 8uTTER. STOCK DEMAND RATIO RUTTER. GOVERNMENT (CCC) ENDING STOCKS RUTTER, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS (COMMERCIA~ , GOVERN~ENT) ~uTTER, MAKE AL~OWANCE MILK, GROSS RETURNS, RUTTER/PowDER PROD I AM CHEESE PROD MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MI~K USED IN BUTTER/POWDER PRODUCTION RUTTER, GRADE A OR BETTER, DIFF BETwEEN MARKET & SUPPORT PRICE RUTTER, RETAI~ PRICE INDEX RU.YJ~ER. DEf.LA.TE.D. J~FlAtL PIHCLINDEX _ RUTTER. SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE, GRADE A OR BETTER, CHICAGO RUTTER. WHOLESALE PRtCE OF GRADE A (qZ-SCORE,CHICAGO) BUTTER. WHOLESALE PRtCE OF GRADE AA (91_SCORE,CHICAGO) RUTTER. SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SALES SUTTER. SUPPLY I DEMANO RATIO CASEIN, IMPORTS CHEESE. AMER, SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL · SALES CHEESE, AMERICAN, SUPPLY I DEMAND RATIO CHEESE, TOTA~ NATURAL (AMERICAN' OTHER TYPES), PRODUCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN, PRODUCTION CHEESE. OTHER THAN AMERICAN, PRODUCTION CHEESE. AMERICAN, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTlON CHEESE. AMERICAN, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, COMMERCIAL OISAPPEARANCE CHEESE. AMERICAN, eC C pRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASrS) CHEESE. AMERICAN, CCC SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS CHEESE. AMERICAN, STOCK DEMAND RATIO CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.OMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE, NATURAL AMERICAN, GOVERN"'ENT ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL, ENDING STOCKS CHEESE, NATURAL AMFRICAN, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS CHEESE. ALL IMPORTS CHEESE. IMPORTS, AMERICAN CHEESE, IMPORTS, OTHER NATURAL CHEESE. MAKE ALLOWANCE CHEESE. CHEDOAR BLOCK, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE CHEESE. CHEDDAR, DIFFERENCE BETwEEN MARKET & SUPPORT PRICE

UNITS

PERCENT PERCENT THOU LB La THOU LA THOU ~R THOU L.B THOU loR RATIO THOU LR THOU loB S/CWT RATIO S/CWT CENTS/LB 19b7al00 1~07·too CENTS/L8 CENTS/L.8 CENTS/LB THOU LB RATIO THOU LB THOU loB RATIO THOU LB THOU LB THOU LB LB LB THOU LB THOU LB THOU L8 THOU LB RATIO THOU LB THOU loB THOU LB THOU LB THOU I..B THOU La THOU LB THOU LB S/CWT CENUILB C!:NTS/L8

SOURCE

TRANSFORMA nON AC; PRICES DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRV PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION COLD STORAGE'. COLO STORAGE USDA TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMA nON CPI-BLS TAPt. TRANSFORMATION ')AIR'f SITUATION DAIRV MKT NEwS DAIRY MKT NE.wS TRANSF'ORMAT ION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY /ilKT NE.WS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRV PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMA TION TFUNSFORMAT ION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION COLO STORAGE:: cnl.D STORAGE COLO STORAGE TRANSFORMA nON

'DAIRY /ilKT NEWS DAIRY "'I<.T NEWS TRANSFORMATION USDA DAIRY SITUATION TRANSFORMA nON

Page 20: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

,. CHEPMGA~K CHEPMGt:lAL CHEPMWIAPAK CHEPMi'lJA P8L CHEPR/PCCF* CHEPRAM CHEWH'fAP CHEWH'fAPA CHEWH'fAPH CHEWH'fCP CHEWHYDO CHEWHYHA CHEWHYHH CHEWH'fHT CHEWHYHT/DD CHEWH'fPM CHWY/BIJPD CHW'fRTAM CHWYRTMO COWPF COWPF/MILPF FLPR/PCCF* FLU+MFGCRM FLUCRM FMOITF FRSDP FRSFO MARATIO MARPR MARPR/PCCF* MCOWFDIU MFGCRM MIFPF MILAA MILADJaP MILAP MILAPCC MILAPIC MILAPND MILCPCC MILCPFL ~ILCPIt MILCPNO MILDOFL MILDDLF' MILDI)Nn MILDOWH MILGUND MILHC/DDND MILHCND MILIRWH MILMF'G MILMFG~.R

1 97r;0 I - ,9/1002 Icn301 - 19/1002 Iq0501 - 19/1002 1961103 - 191\002 IqnOI - 19M02 ,q7301 - 1911002 ,Q7301 - '911001 197501 - 19AOOI 197501 - 19AOOI 197301 - 1911001 19nO I - 1911001 ,97601 - 1911001 197601 - 1911001 19nO I - 1911001 197301 - 1911001 197301 - 191\001 197301 • 1911001 197301 - 1911001 197301 - 19/1001 1951501 • 1911002 196301 • 1911001 193901 • ;911002 197101 • 191\001 197101 • 191\001 197001 - tc~AOOI 196801 • 19/1001 1971')01 • 191\001 190202 • 1911003 193901 - 1911002 193901 • 1911002 196001 - 198002 197101 - 19/1001 196'JOI - 191\002 19 5501 • 19/1002 196201 • 191\001 1951501 - '91\002 19151501 - 198001 1951501 - 1911001 \95501 • 1911001 195501 - 1911001 19700 1 - 191101')1 i9SS01 - IQAOOI 197002 - 191\001 197001 - 19/1001 197001 • 19/1001 197002 - 1911001 19700 1 • 19/1001 197001 - 1911001 i97002 - 1911001 197001 - 191\0 0 1 193901 - 19/1002 11)7101 - IQ/lOOI 197101 - 198001

WHARTO N £FA I NC.

CHEESE. CHEODAR BLnCK, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE CHEESE. CHEDDAR AARRELS, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCKS. wISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRYCE CHEESE, CHEDDAR BARRELS, wISCUNSIN ASSEMALING POINTS PRICE CHEESE. AMERICAN, nEFLATED RETAIL ~RICE INDEX CHEESE. AMERICAN, RETAIL ~RICE INDEx WHEY, TOTAL PRODUCTION. HUMAN' ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, ~ER 1000 CAPTTA CONSUMPTION WHEY, TOTAL COMMERr.IAL DISAP~EARANCE, HUMAN & ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, ENDING STOCKS, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, TOTAL COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN & ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, STOCK DEMAND RATTO WHEY, MARKET PRICE. HUMAN FOOD, CENTRAL STATES FOB MILK, GROSS RETURNS, AM CHEESE PROD I BUTTER/PowDER ~ROD MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN AMERICAN CHEESE ~ROOUCTION MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN MOZZARELLA CHEESE PRODUCTN COwS, AVERAGE PRICF RECEIVED BV FARMERS, US MILK, PRICE RATIO OF COWS I ALL MILK WHOLE MILK, OEFLATFD R~TAIL PRICE INDEX CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FROM BUTTER PRODUCTION CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FROM FLUID SALES . PROPORTION OF TOTAL FLUID SALES WHICH ARE MARKEr ORDER SALES DAIRY ~RODlJCTS, FARM-RETAIL SPREAD FATS A~D OILS, FARM.RETAIL SPREAD MILK, 10 yR AVG, ALL MILK WHSALE PRICE I MANU GRADE MILK PRICE MARGARINE, RETAIL PRICE INDEx MARGARINE, DEFLATEn RETAIL PRICE INDEX MILK, GRAIN & CONCFNTRATfS FED TO DAIRY COwS PER DAY CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FROM NONFAT DRY MILK PRODUCTION MILK, ELIGIBLE FOR FLUTD MARKET, AVG PRICE REC'O BY FARMERS MILK, pRODUCTION PFR cow MILK, ADJUSTED BASE PRICE MILK, PRODUCTION CREAMEn COTTAGE CHFESE, PRODUCTION ICE CREAM, PRODUCT TON NONFAT DRy MILK, HIIMAN FOOD, SPRAY & ROLLER, PRODUCTION CREAMED COTTAGE CHFESE, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION FLUID MILK, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION IcE CREAM, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION NONFAT DRy MILK, PFR Inoo CAPITA CONSUMPTION MILK, ESTIMATED TOTAL FLUID MILK SALES (PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS) MILK, LOWFAT , SKIM, PACKAGED SALES, FED ORDER MARKETS ONLY NONFAT DRy MILK, TnTAL COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE WHOLE MILK, PACKAGED SALES, FED ORDER MARKETS ONLY NONFAT DRy MILK, Ccc PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) NONFAT DRY MI~K, STOCK DEMAND RATIO No~FAT DRY MILK, COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS WHOLE MILK, RETAIL PRICE INDEX MA~UFACTURING MILK, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR CHEESE & BUTTER PROD MANUFACTURING MILK, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR BUTTER/PowDER PROD

CENTS/LA CENT S/UI CENTS/I.A CENT S/UI 1967=100 DEC 1977=100 THOU L~ THOU LA THOU LA LB THOU LA THOU L8 THOU LA THOU LA RATIO CENTS/LS RATIO S/CWT S/CWT S/CWT RA TID JI~b7:l100 MIL LB MIL LB RATIO 19678100 IQ67=100 PERCENT 19671:100 1967:1100 LS MIL ~B S/cWT LA DOLLARS MIL LB THOU L8 THOU GAL THOU LA LB LA GAL LB MI~ LB MIL LB THOU LA MIL LB THOU LB RATIO THOU Le 19&7&100 MIL LB MIL LB

DAI~Y MKT NE.wS DAIRV MKT Nf wS DAIRY MKT NEwS DAIRY MKT N~i'lS TRANSFORI-1ATION CPI-BLS TAPE TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS OAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMAT ION DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMAT ION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION AG PRICES TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION AG OUTLOOK AG OUTLOOK DAIRY SITUATION CpI"~LS TAPE TRANSFORMATION MILK PRODUCTION TRANSFORMATION AG PRICES MILK PRODUCTION DAIRY SITUATION TRANSFORMATION DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION FED MILK ORDER TRANSFORMAT ION FED MILK ORDER DAIRY PRODUCTS TRANSFORI-1ATION DAIRY PRODUCTS CPI .. BLS TAPE TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION

Page 21: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

~ILNDlCS ~ILNnXS/OO ""ILP, MILPF MILPF., MILPMECC MILPMEF"L MILPME.IC MILPRIC MILPRle/PCCF* MILPS MILPSNn "'ILPWNn MILRTNCST MIMMWPF MIMMWPF. MLI<COW MLI<COW~E ML.I<CDW.Elu MLKCnWIIPWI MLKFDRTO MLKHHR MLI(He:FR~E MLI<HHRP NFPM/NFPS PMHTV PCeF'* PFPAU PFP8F* PFPC* PFPC*.E PFPC*La PFPCM* PFPF* PFPFE* PFPFL* PFPFM* PFPI* PFPL* PFPO,",* PFPPh PFPPI pwR* PFPP I I Tw R * .'E PFPS. PFPSC* PFPTM* PFPTu PFP~j*

PFPW •• E PFPWR* PFPZ. TCPOP WHEYPM;NFPM

IQ700Z - IC~.I\O()I 1 Q7noZ - I'~ROO 1 1<1700\ - \<1.1\002 1<1/)301 - IQ.I\on2 IQ710 1 - IqP.OOI 1<11101 - IQP.OOI 1<17101 - IqP.OOI 1<11101 - IQ.I\OOI IqnOI - 1<11'.002 l<lnOI - IQII002 1<1&001 - lq.l\003 1 <1700 I - 1 QP.o03 1<l7()01 - lQP.OOI Iq&301 - \qAOOZ 1<115'501 - 1<111002 1<11301 - \C~.IIOOI 1<17201 - Iq.l\002 1<1151501 - IQIIo02 1<15&01 - IQIIOOI IQ7A02 - \C~P.onl 11)&301 - Iqllon2 i<l1301 - 1<111002 1 <11301 - \C~lIon2 11)/)301 - \QAOOI 1<17001 - IQIlOOI 1<11.1<101 - I<lAOOI lQI301 - 1Ql1002 11)7001 - 1<11'002 1<11001 - 1<111002 1<11.1701 - IQ.l\002 1<17001 - !lHIOOI 1<11.1AOI • IQl1002 l'noOI • 1<111202 1<11001 - I<lA002 1<17001 - I<lA002 1<17001 - 1<11'002 1<17001 - 1<1.11002 1 <1700 I - 1<11'.001.1 1<17001 - IQll002 lQ7001 - 1<1110 02 1<17001 - IQll002 l<l7001 - IQlln02 1<17001 - \Q.l\ool 1<17001 - 1<111202 1<17101 - IqllOOI.l 1 1)1nO 1 - Jf~A002 1<17001 - IqllonU 11)7()01 - I<lAO()2 Iq7001 - IqROOI 1<17001 - IQl\002 1<171'101 - IQAOOI 1<lIIMI - I<lRonl 1<1700\ - 1<111001

fFA J"l.

NnNFAT DRY MILK,SUPPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY ov~p COMM~RCIAL SALES NON FAT DRY MILK, ~UPPlY I DEMAND RATIO MILK, PARITY PRICE OF ALL MILK SULD TO PLANTS ~ILK, ALL, AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED ay FARMfRS MILK, AL.L, AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS, ESTIMATE CREAMED COTTAGE CHFESE, EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV (SOLID BASIS) MILK, EST PRODUCER~ MILK EQUIV OF FLUID SALES (FAT BASIS) ICE CR~AM, ESTIMATFD PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT (FAT RASIS) ICE CREAM, RELATED PRnDUcTS, RETAIL PRICE INOEX ICE CREAM, Of-FloATED RETAIL PRICE INOF.X MILK, MANUFACTURING GRADE, SUPPORT PRICE NONFAT DRY MILK, SIIPPORT PRICE NnNFAT DRV MILK, W~OLESALE PRICE MILK, DAIRY RATION cnST, I&X PROTEIN MILK, CL.ASS II, MINNESOTA-~ISCONSIN, PRICE MILK, wEIGHTED AVG GROSS RETURNS FOR MANUFACTlJRING PURPOSES MIL.K COWS, NUMAER nN ,ARMS, BEGINNING OF QUARTER ESTIMATE MIL.K COWS, ESTIMATF.D AVERAGE NUMBER ON FARMS MILK COWS, ESTIMATFO AVERAGE NUMSER ON FARMS, YR OVER vR CHANGE MIL.K COWS, UTIL.ITY. PRtCE, WISCONSIN AUCTIONS MIL.K-FEED PRICE ~ATIO MIL.K COWS, H!IF~R REPLACEMENTS 500 LAS OR MORE, SEMI-ANN NUMBER MILK COWS, HEIFER REPL.ACEMENTS 500 LAS OR MORE, SEMI-ANN NUMBER MILK COWS, AVG PRICE REC BV FARMERS, DAIRY HERO REPL.ACEM!NTS NONFAT DRY MIL.K, MARKET PRtCE • SUPPORT PRICE MILK, PERCENTAGE OF PARITY EQUIVAL.ENT CONSUMER PRICE INDFX, US FOOD PRICES PAID AV FARMERS. AUTOS' TRUCKS PRICES PAID By FARMERS, AUIL.OING , FENCING PRICES PAID BV FARMERS, AL.L COMMODITIES' SERVICES PRICES PAID BV FARMERS, AL.L COMMODITIES' SERVICES, ESTIMATE PRICES PO BY FARMERS, COMMODITIES' SERVICES, .YR OVER YR CHANG! PRICES PAID By FARMERS, AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS PRICES PAID BV FARMERS. FEED PRICES PAID BY FARMERS,.FuEL.S , ENERGy PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FEEDER L.IVESTOCK PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. FARM & MOTOR SUPPL.IES PRICES PAID BV FARMERS, INTEREST PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. FAMILY LIVING PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, OTHER MACHINERY PRICES PAID By ~ARMERS, PRODUCTIUN ITEMS PRICES PAID 8Y FARMERS, PRODUCTN ITEMS, INT, TAlCES ,WAGE RATE PRICES PO By FARMERS, PROoUCTN ITEM, INT TAX ,WAGE RATE, EST PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. SEED PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FARM SERVICES' CASH RENT PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. TRACTORS' SEL.F-PROPEL.LEO MACHIN[RY PRICES PAID BY FARMERS. TAXES PRICES PO RY FARMERS, COMMODtTY , SERVCS tNT. TAX, WAG! RATE PRICE PO BY FRMERS. COMMODITy, SERVCS INT TAX ,WAGE RAT!, EST PRICES PAID AV FARMERS. WAGE RATES PRICES PAID RV FARMERS. FERTIL.IlER TOTAL CIVIL.IAN POPlJLATION OF THE U.S.; WHEY, pRICE RATIO, WHEY I NONFAT DRY MILl(

THOU LA RATto $/(wT S/(WT !le wT MIL LR MIL LA MIL LA OF.(: 1<11711100 1(11)7&100 SleWT CENTS/LR CENTSILB S/TONS S/e WT SICWT THOU HEAD T~OU HfAO PfRC!NT DOL RATIO T~OU HEAD THOU HEAD OOLIHEAI) RATIO PERCENT lqb7al00 1<110-11.111100 1<110-11.111100 Iq10-ll.llll00 1<110-11111\00 PERCENT \<110-11.111\00 1<110-1411100 IQIO-II.IIIIOO 1<110-1/.111\00 lQIO-la-loo IQIO-\IIII\OO \QI0-ll.llll00 1<110-1/.111\00 11)10-1/.111100 IQ10-11l1l100 1<110 .. 1/.111100 I'HO-II.I:IOO IQ10-ll.llll00 IQIO-II.IIIIOO IQIO-Il.llll00 lQl0-11.I1I1()0 IQ10.11.I=100 1<110-14=\00 lQIO-III"IOO MIL RATIO

TRANSFOI~"'A T I nrJ T R UJ S F () ~ J,1 A T I OfJ AG P~ICES AC; P~ ICE.S TRANSFORMATIOt-.! TRANSFO~MATlr)N

TRA~JSFURMAT ION TRANSFU~MAT IntI CPI-BLS TAP~ TRANSFOR~ATION

"AIRY SITUATION DAIRY SITUATION nAIRY PRODUCTS AG PRICES DAIRY MKT NEWS TRANSFORMATION DARV sIT-"'LK PR MIL.l( PRODUCTION TRANSFORMA TION DAIRV MKT NEWS TRANSFORMATION DA IRY SITUAT ION DAIRY SITUATION AG PRICE.S TRANSrORMA TION DAIRY SITUATION BioS AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES TRANSFORMAT ION TRANSFORMATtON AG PRICES AG prqCES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRtCES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES TRANSFOR"'A TION AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICES AG PRICE.S AG PRICES TRANSFORMATION AG PRICES AG PRICES raR MODE.L TRANSFORMATION

Page 22: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

- o· HVCONAPA HVCnNAPH HVCONPMA HVCnNPMH HVLACAPA !1VL,.lCAPIo4 HYLlCHTH HYPnL/oMAPH HYPOL/OMHTH HYPOLAPA HVPnLAPH HyPO"4APIo4 HVPOMHTH HVSW8APA HVSW8APH IMITFI.

I cn'50 I • lCuIon 1 tcn'5ot • 1ql\OtlI tQ7'501 • IQII(\OI t Q7C;01 • 191100\ lQ1IjO\ • 1911001 \Q7C;Ot • 111110111 \Q7C;0\ • 1911001 lQ1C;01 • 19110111 \Q7C;01 • 191100\ tQ7'501 • 19110111 191'501 • IQIIonl 197'501 • 1911001 IQ7'501 • 1911001 l Q71j01 • 1911001 197'501 • 1911001 197001 • 1911001

J I.e.

~'HEV, cONOfNSEO, SnLYD CONTENT, SWHT, PR(lI)IJCTTO~J, Ar~J~AL GRAnE WHEY, cONOF~15EO, SnLtD cmJTENT, SWEET, PRlIOIJCTtON, HUMAN GRAOE WHEY, cONOfNSED SOl 105. SrlEET, MAR~fT PRYCE, ANI~AL GRADf WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS. s~EET, MARKET PRtC~, HUMAN GRADE LACTOSf., PROOUCTION, ANI~AL GRADE LACTOSE, PRODUCTION. ~IMAN GRADE LACTOS~, ENDING STnCKS. HUMAN GRADE WHEY, PARTIALLY DELACTOSFO/DEMtNERALtZfD, PRODUCTION,HUMAN GRADE WHEY, PART~ DELACTnSED/DEMIN[RAI.IZEO, ENDING STUCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEV, PARTIALLY DELACTOSED, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE WHEY, PARTIALLY DELACTOSED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE WHn', PARTIALLY DEMINERALIZED, PRODIICTION, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, PARTIALLY OEMINERALIZED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE WHEY, SOLIDS IN WET SLENOS, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRAnl WHEY, SOLIDS IN WET ALENOS, PRODIICTION, HUMAN GRADE PROPORTION 0' TOTAL 'I.UIO SALES WHICH ARE WHOLE MILk SALES

THnU LR TIoH)U L R CE.NTSILR CFNTS/LR THOU LR THOU LR TMOV LR THOU LR TMOU LR THOU LR THOU LR TMOU I." TMOU LR T~OU LR THOU LR RATIO

DATRV PRODUCTS nAt~'" PRn(llJCTS I)AI~'" p~nDUCTS DAIRY p~rIOUCTS

DA1RV PRODUCTS OAIR'" PRODUCTS DAIR'" P~ODUCTS DAIRY P~ODUCTS DAtRY PRnOUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS OAIrn PRIJOUCTS DAIRY PRr:lDUCTS DAIRY PRODUCTS DAIRY PROOUCTS DAIRY P~ODUCTS TRANSFORMATION

~ f

I J ! f

I • .!

I i-

Page 23: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

_ a. .. . . ..,f<\>J 1 '.I " f.~ A INC •

-INDEX ~ - zq 'EXTE

BANK WEFATs.nArRV~MON

VARIABLE FROM TO DESCRIPTION

BFCFLU Jq7001 • jqA005 MILK, BUTTERFAT CONTEN~ OF FLUID SALES LAST UPDATED, 01/22/80 AT 0824 PRECISION, 4

8FCFLU • ~6333 • WM/TF( + Cl-WM/TFL) * .0laq

BFCPMK \Q7;01 • jqaooo MILK, AVERAGE BF CnNTENT OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS & DEALERS LAST UPDATED, 01/1Q'ao AT 12ab PRECISIONi a

BUTAP lQSSOI - lqROOS RUTTER. PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEDi 07/ 0 1/aO AT 1250 PRECISION. 0

BUTDD iqS~02 • IqAOOS BUTTER. COMMERCIAL OISAPPEARANCE LAST UPDATEOi 07/22/ao AT 0824 PRECISION, 1

BUTDn • 8UTHCC-l) + BUTAP • RUTGU- BUTHC

BUTGU jQS'OI - jqA005 RuTTER. eec PRICE SUPP~RT PURCHASES (DELIVrRY BASIS) LAST UPDATED, 07/01/80 AT 1254 PRECISION, °

BUTGUME iQS501 - iqA065 BUTTER. ecc PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS LAST UPDATED, 01122 / 80 AT 0820 PRECISION. 3

8UTGUME .• eUTGU • ;020&5

BUTHC lQS501 -: lQAOOo RUTTER. COMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATEDi 07/22 / 80 AT 0820 PRECISIONi \

BUTHC • eUTHT • 8UTHE

BUTHC/DD lQS502 - IQA005 RUTTER. STOCK DEMAND RATIO LAST UPDATED, 0;/22/80 AT OR24 PRECISIONi 3

RUTHCiDD • . BUTHC I BUTnD

BUTHE jQS501 • Iqeooo BUTTER, GOVERNMENT (CCC) ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATED, 01/1q 1aO AT 1224 PRECISION. 0

BUTHT lqSSOI • iqAOOb RUTTER. TOTAL ENDING STOCKS (COMMERCIAL & GOVERNMENT) LAST UPDATEDi 07/1Ql80 AT 122b PRECISIONi 0

~UTPn/CHWY tq7UOI _ IqRo05 MILK, GROSS RETURN~. BlITTER/POWDER PROD I AM CHEESE PROD LAST UPDATED, 07/22 / aO AT OA24 PRECISIONi 3

RUTPDiCHWy • BUTPORRET 1 CHWVRTAM

BUTPORRET iQ7001 • IQRoo5 MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN BuTTER/POWDER PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEDi 07/22/80 AT OA20 PRECISIONi 3

UNITS

PERCENT

PERCENT

THOU LB

TMOU LR

THOU LB

TMOU LA

THOU LA

RATIO

THOU LR

THOU LI'I

RATIO

S/CWT

SOURCE

TRANSFORMATION

AG PRICES

DAtRY PRODUCTS

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRV PRODUCTS

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMA lION

TRANSFORMATION

COLO STORAGE

COLD STORAGE

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMA TION

Page 24: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

- ... . . ., " 1 " j r I f ~ ,) J hi C •

RUTPORRET = (~~3 * (RUTPWq,CH • • 8Q) + 8.~O * MILPWND) 1 100. r;RnsS RETURNS AVAILARL.F TO MIL.l( lISED TO "ROOtICE THE JOINT PROOtICTS. RUTTER A"JD NnNFAT nRY lo11ll(, I)E"ENn UPO"J THE MARKET PRIcES OF THESE TWO PRonUCTS. ESTIMATES OF THESE RETlJRNS PROVIDE AN INDTCATTON OF WHAT Io1ANUFACTURfRS wOliLD BE WILLING TO PAY FOR MILK WHTCH IS USED FOR BUTTfR/POwnER PRODlicTION~' NO Al.lOWAtJrE IS MADE. IN THF. CALCUL.ATION FOR PROCfSSING COSTS BUT THESE ARE RElATIVfL.Y SMALL. AND REASONABLY CONSTANT OVER TIMEJ

BUTPM.PS Iqo~OI • IqAOOo RUTTER. GRADE A OR BETTER, DIFF BETWEEN MARKET & SUPPORT PRICE LAST UPDATED~ 07/22/80 AT OR20 PRECl~ION~ 3

RUTPM.PS • BUTPWQ3CH • BUTPSGACH

BUTPR IQ]qOI • IqAOOo RUTTER. RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED~ 07/25 / 80 AT 1155 PRECISIONi 3

8UTPSGACH iqo20 U • IqAOOQ RUTTER. SUPPORT PURCHASE pRICE, GRADE A OR BETTER, CHICAGO LAST UPDATED~ 05/13/80 AT Ibll PRECISIONi 3

8UTPWQ2CH iQ5501 - jqAOOb BUTTER. WHO~ESA~E PRICE OF GRADE A cq2-SCORE,CHICAGO) ~AST UPDATED. 07/1~/80 AT 1228 PRECISIONi 3

BUTPWQJCH iQ0501 • tqAOOo RUTTER. WHO~ESALE PRICE OF GRADE AA Cq3_SCORE,CHICAGO) ~AST UPDATEDi 07/1ql80 AT 12Zq PRECISION~ J

BUTXS jQ5~02 - IqA005 BUTTER. SURP~US, E~CESS OF SUPP~Y OVER COMMERCIAL SALES ~AST UPDATEOi 0;/Z2/80 AT 082a PRECISION~ 1

BUTKS • BUTHCC-l) • BUTAP • BUTDO

8UTKS/DO JQS;OZ - iqAOO~ BUTTER. SUPPLY I Dr.MANO RATIO ~AST UPDATED. 01/22/80 AT OA2& PRECISION. 3

BUTxsiDD • BUT.S 1 BUTnD

CASEiNM! iQ750 t • IqA005 CASEIN. IMPORTS ~AST UPOATEOi 01/28/80 AT 1132 PRECIsIONj 0

CHEAMXS iQ760t _ lqAO~4 CHEESE. AMER, SURP~US, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SALES ~AsT UPDATED. 01/22 / 80 AT 082U PRECISIONi 1

CHEAMXS • CHEHCAMC-l) • CHEAPA~ • CHEDDA~

CHEAMXS/DO i~j501 - iQAO~~ CHEESE. AMERICAN, ~UPPLY I DEMAND RATIO . LAST UPDATEOi 07/22/80 AT 0820 PRECISIONi 3

CHEAMXS/DO • CHEAMXS 1 CHEDDAM

CHEAPAL iq5~01 - lqA005 CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL (AMERICAN' OTHER TYPES), PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED; 0;/01/80 AT 1250 PRECI~IONi 0

CHEAPAM iq5501 - iqA005 CHEESE. AMERICAN, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED. 07/01/AO AT 1250 PRECISIONi 0

:HEAPOT Jq5~ot • IQAO~5 CHEESE~ OTHER THAN . AME~ICAN, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED, 01/22/80 AT 0820 PRECISION, I

CENTS/L8 TRANSFORMATION

lQohlOO CpI-BlS TAPE.

CE'NTS/LB DAIRY SITUATION

CENT SIloS DAIRY MKT NE.wS

CENTS/L8 DAIRY MKT NEWS

THOU ~B TRANSFORMATION

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

THOU loB DAIRY /IIKT NE"WS

THOU ~B TRANSFORMATION

RATIO TRANSFORMA nON

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU loB DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

Page 25: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

- , . , 1' .... 1'1 I •• /I [ f\l C.

CHEAPOT • CHEAPAL • CHFAPA~

CHEDnAM lQ7~01 - IQROOU CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.OMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANC~ LAST UPOATEDi 01/22 / 8 0 AT OR2U PRECI~10Ni 1

CHEDOAM • ~HEHCAM(.l) + CHEAPAM • CHEGTPR + CHEMIAM • CHEHCAM THIS VARtA~LE INCLUDES CHEESE IMPORTS WHIcH ARE AMERICAN TYPE CHEESE~

CHEDnor lQ7~01 • IQ~OOU CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE LAST UPOATEDi 01/22/80 AT OR2U _ PRECI~IONi I

CHFDonT • CHEHTOTC.I) + CHEAPOT + CHE~tOT • CHEHTOT THtS VARIARLE INCLUDES ALL CHEESE IMPORTS EXCEPT THOSE IMPORTS WHICH ARE AMERICAN TYPE CHEESE ~

CH[GTPR iQ7001 • 19Roo5 CHEESE. AMERICAN, rcc PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) LAST UPDATED, 07/ 0 1/80 AT 1~55 PRECISIONi 0

CH[GTPRME ~9TQOl • 19~005 CHEESE. AMERICAN, ecC SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS LAST UPDATED, 01122/80 AT 0820 PRECI~IONi 3

CHEGTPRME • CHEGTPR * ~00988 CHEHt/ODAM 197~01 • i9ROOU CHEESE. AMERICAN, STOCK DEMAND RATtO

LAST UPOATEDi 01/22/80 AT 082U PRECI~rONi 3 CHEHCiDDAM • CHEHCAM 1 CHEnDAM

CHEHtAM j95~01 - 19AO~b CHEESE. AMERtCAN, ~OMMERCIAL ENOING STOCKS LAST UPDATEO, 07/22/80 AT 0820 PRECI~IONi 1

CHEHCAM • cHEHTAM - CHFHEAM

CHEHEAM i95501 • iqRO~b CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN, GOVERNMENT ENDING STOCKS LAST UPOATEDi 01119 / 80 AT 1~27 PRECISIONi 0

CHEHTAL i97001 - tqAO~b CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL, ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATED, 07/1Ql80 AT 1228 PRECISIONi 0

CHEHTAM j95~01 • i9806b CHEESE. NATURAL AM~~ICAN, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATEDi 01/ 19/ 80 AT 1227 PRECISION; 0

CHEHTOT 197nol • 19ROOb CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, TOTAL ENDING STOC~S LAST UPDATEDi 07/22/80 AT OR20 pRECISION; t

CHEHTOT • CHEHTAL - CHfHTAM

CHEMt i95~01 - ~qRo65 CHEESE. ALL IMPORTS LAST UPDATEDj 07/ 2 8 / 8 0 AT 1130 PRECISIONi 0

CHEMrAM i97~Ol - iq80~S CHEESE. IMPORTS, AMERI¢AN LAST UPDATED. 07/28/80 AT 113n PRECISIONs 0

CHEMIOT Iq7~01 - IqR005 CHEESE. IMPORTS, OTHER NATURAL LAST UPDATED, 07/28/80 AT 1131 PRECIsIONj 0

CHEMIOT • CHEMI - CHEMTAM

CHEPGCH lQS501 - 198009 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

THOU LR TRANSFORMAT ION

THOU L.B DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LR T~ANSFORMATION

RATIO TRANSFO~MATIor~

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

THOU L8 COLD STORAGE

THOU LR COLO STO~AGE

THOU LB COLO STORAGE

THOU L8 T R ANS,.-ORI.4A TI ON

THOU LR DAIRY MKT NEWS

THOU LB DAIRY MKT NEWS

THOU LR TRANSFORMATION

CPHS/LB DAIRY SITUATION

Page 26: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

• .11 : . · .. I II ' ·' t f !\ I '·JC.

LAST UP~ATE~j 0~/13/80 AT lb13 PRECISIONi ?

:HEPM.PG jq7301 • IqROOb CHEESE. CHEDDAR, DTFFERENCE BETWEEN MARKET & SUPPORT PRICE LAST UPDATEn, 07/22/80 AT OA20 PRECISION; 3

CHEPM.PG • CHEP~GBaL • CHEPGCH

CE'NTS/LB TRANSFORMATION

:HEPMGRSK iq7~01 • IQROn7 CHEESE. CHED~AR BLnCK, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE LAST UPDATED, 07/28/80 AT 112q PRECISIONi 3

CENTS/LR DAIRV MKT NEWS

:HEPMGRaL lQ7301 - IQR007 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BARRELS, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE LAST UPDATED, 07/28/80 AT 112Q PRECISION; 3

CENTS/LR DAIRY MKT NEWS

:HEPMWiAPBK ~qb501 - 19ROOb CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCKs, WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRICE LAST UP~ATEO, 01/19/80 AT 1235 PRECISION, 2

CENTS/LB DAIRY MKT NEWS

:HEPMWiAPBL lQb805 - IQAOOb CHEESE. CHEDDAR BARRELS, WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRICE LAST UPDATEDi 01/19/80 AT 123& PRECISIONi 2

CENTS/LB DAIRY MKT NEWS

:HEPRAM ~97~01 - ~QAO~b CHEESE~ AMERICAN, RETA1L PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED, 01/25/80 AT 115b PRECISION, 3

DEC lCJ17·100 CpI.BLS TAPE

:HEWHYAP JQ7501 • 198005 WHEY, TOTAL PRODUCTION, HUMAN L ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATED, 01122/80 AT OA20 PRECISION, I

CHEWHyAP • CHEWHVAPH + CHEWHYAPA

THOU LR TRANSFORMATION

:HEWHYAPA i97~01 - i9R005 WHEY, ~RODUCTION, iNIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/ 01/80 AT 1252 PRECIsIONj 0

THOU LR DAIRV PRODUCTS

:HEWHYAPH iq7~01 - 198005 WHEY, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 01/01/80 AT 1252 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

:HEWHYDD J97~02 - 198005 WHEY, TOTAL COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE, HUMAN L ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/22 / 80 AT 0824 pRECISIONi I

THOU LR TRANSFORMATION

CHEWHVDO . ' CHEWHYHTC-l, + CHEwHYAP • CHEWHYHT

:HEWHYHA 197&01 - 19Aoo5 WHEY, !NDING STOCK~, ANIMAL GRADE THOU LR DAIRY PRODUCTS LAST UPOATEDi 07/ 0 1/80 AT 1253 PRECISIONi 0

:HEWHYHH 197&01 - i9~005 WHEY, ENDING STOCK5, HUMAN GRADE LAST U~DATEDi 07/01/80 AT 1253 PRECISION, 0

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

:HEWHYHt iqj&Ol - j9~00S WHEY, iOTAL COMMER~IAL ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN & ANIMAL GRAOE LAST U~DATEO, 01/22 / 80 AT OR20 ~RECISIONi I

THOU LR TRANSFORMA TlON

CHEWHyHT • CHEWHYHA + CHEWHYHH

:HEWHYHT/DD l Q7&02 - iQR005 WHEY, STOCK DEMAND RATlO LAST UPDATEDi 07/22/80 AT 092~ PRECISIONj 1

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

CHEWHyHT/DD • CHEWHYHT / CHEWHVDD

:HEWHypM 197aol _ Iq~005 WHEY, MARKET pRICE. HUMAN FOOD, CENTRAL STATES FOB LAST UPDATEDi OJ/01180 AT 1253 PRECI~IONi 3

CHEWHyPM • wHEPM / 100

CENTS/LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

Page 27: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

I· i. ' I I I , · f . f ~ I I ~ C •

:HWY/BIIPD ,Q7UOI • IQR005 MILK, GROSS RETURNS, AM CHEEsE PROD I RUTTfR/PQwDfR PROD LAST UPDATED, 01/22180 AT 082U PRECIsIONj 3

CHWY/BUPO • CHWYRTAM I BUTPDRRET

:HWyRTAM lq7UOI • iqA005 MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK uSED IN AMERICAN CHEESE PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEO; 07/22 / 80 AT 0820 ~RECISIONi 3

~HWYRTMO LAST

CHwYRTAM • (Q~7S * (CHFPMG~BL + 2.1) + 5.7 , * CHEwHYPM + ~3 * (BUTpwq3CH • ~.O) I lOO~ GROSS RETURNS AVAILARLF TO MILK USED TO PRODUCE THE JOINT PRODUCTS, AMERICAN CHEFSE ANO WHEY, DEP~ND UPON THE MARKET PRICE OF THESE TWO PRODUCTS. ESTIMATES OF THESE RETURNS PROVIDE AN INDICATION OF WHAT MANUFACTURERS WOULD BE WILLING Tn PAY FOR MILK WHICH IS USED FOR AMERICAN CHEESE'WHEY PROOUCTION~ NO ALLOWANCE IS MADE IN TH~ CALCULATION FOR PROCESSING COSTS RUT THESE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND REASONABL¥ CONSTANT OVER TIME~

jq7UOt • iQAOnS MILK, GROSS UPDATEDi 07/22/80 AT 0820

CHWYRTMO • (11,,5 • lwOq ) • :."U *

RETURN~ TO MILK USED IN MOZZARELLA CHEESE PRODUCTN PRECISION. 3

* (CHE~MGBAL • b.q) + 1~5 * (BUTPWq3CH , (BUTPWQ3CH • ".0) • 5.5 * CHEW~¥PM) I 100.

:owp~ l Qb301 .• iq80~5 tows, iVERAG! PRICF RECEIVED BY FARMERS, US LAST UPDATED. 05/3t/80 AT IliU PRECISION. 2

rLU+MFGCRM iqjiol • iQA005 CREAM, AMOUNT AVAI~ABLE FROM BUTTER PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED, 07/22/80 AT 082b PRECISyONi 3

FLU+MFGCRM • FLUCRM • MFGCRM

rLUCRM iq7jOI • iQA005 CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILARLE FROM FLUID SALES LAST UPDATED. 011i2/80 AT 082& PRECISIONi 3

FLlICRM • MILPMEFL • ((RFCPMK • BFCFLU·) I U3b • BFCFLU)

RATIO

SICWT

SlCWT

SICWT

MIL LB

MIL La

rMO/TF LAST

,q7QOl • lqROO& ~ROPOR+ION OF TOTA~ FLUID SALES WHICH ARE ~ARKET ORDER SALES RATIO UPDATED. 01/1q / eO AT 1300 . . PRECI~ION~ 3

FMO/T' • MJLDOFL I MILDDFL~T ·THIS VARIABLE EQUALS THE RATIO OF THE ANNUAL TOTAL OF FEDERAL ORDER LOWFAT & SKIM (MILDDL', AND WHOLE MILK (MILDDWH) ~ACKAGED SALES TO THE ANNUAL TOTAL .FLUID MTLK AND CREAM SALES (PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS) RE~ORTED IN USDA'S IOATRV SITUATION'. IT IS USED WITH DATA ON QUARTERLY FEDERAL ORDER FLUID LOwFAT.SKIM AND WHOLE MILK SALES TO ESTIMATE THE QUARTERLY TOTAL FLUID MILK SALES (MILDDFL) ~ ·

:RSDP lQ7001 - IQA004 DAIRY pRODUCTS, FARM.R~TAIL SPREAD LAST UPDATED. 07/22/80 AT OQIA PRECISION, 2

IQbhloO

:RSFO ,Q7001 • IQR004 FATS AND OILS, FARM.RETAIL SPREAD LAST UPDATED, 07/22/80 AT OQ1Q PRECISIONi 2

l'JbhlOD

~ARPR ;Q3QOl • IQAOOb MARGARINE, RETAIL PRIC~ INDEX LAST UpnATEDI 01/25/80 AT t15b PRECISION, t

IIJ&hIOO

~FGCRM iQ7iOI - IQA005 CREAM, AMOUNT AVAILA8LE FROM NONFAT DRY MILK PRODUCTION MIL LB

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMA nON

TRANSFORMATION

AG PRICES

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

AG OUTLOOK

AG OUTLOOK

CPI.BLS TAPE

TRANSFORMA nON

Page 28: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

· . • f I ; I ; r J J. ; t_ ~ (1 I "J C •

LAST UPDATED; 07/22/80 AT 082b PRECISIONi 3 MFGCRM • MiLMFG~R * (C?77~ * BFCPM~) •• 00I~)

tFPF 19b301 • 19AOOb MILK, ELIGIBLE FOR FLUID MAR~ET, AVG PRICE RECIO BY FARMERS LAST UPDATED; 07/19/80 AT 12U7 PRECISIONi 3

S/CWT AG PRICES

tLAA J95~01 • 19AOOb MILK, PRODUCTION P~R COW LAST UPDATED, 07/19 / 80 AT 1222 PRECISIONi 0

LR MILK PRODUCTION

[LAP 1~5~01 • 19AOOb MILK, pRODUCTION LAST UP~ATEO; 01122/80 AT 0820 . PRECISION; 3

MILAP • MILAA * MLKcowtE

MIL LB TRANSFORMATION

tLAPCt i95501 • 19AOri5 CREAMED COTTAGE CHrESE, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED, 07/01/80 AT 1251 PRECISION, 0

THOU LEI DAIRY PRODUCTS

tLAPI~ 195501 • 19AO~S ICE CREAM, PRODUCTioN LAST UP~ATEDi 07/01/80 AT 1251 PRECISIONI 0

THOU GAL DAIRY PRODUCTS

tLAPN~ )95501 • 1911005 NONFAT DRY MILK, HI/MAN FOOD, SPRAY .. ROLLER, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATE~' 07/01/80 AT 1251 PRECISION; 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

[LD~FL j9700t • 1911005 MILK, £STIMATEO TOTAL FLUID MILK SALES (PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS) LAST UPDATED, 07/22 / 80 AT OA20 PRECISIONi 3

MILDDFL • CMILDDWH • MrLODLF) I FMO/TF

MIL L8 TRANSFORMATION

tLDDLF i97~01 • \911005 MILK, LOWFAT .. SKIM, PACKAGED SALES, FED ORDER MARKETS ONLY LAST UPDATEDi 07/19 / 80 AT 1259 PRECISIONi 0

MIL. ' L8 !'ED MIL.K ORDER

tLDoND 197002 • \911005 NONFAT DRy MILK, TnTAL COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE LAST UPDATEDi 07/22 / 80 AT 0820 PRECIsIONj 1 .

MILDOND • MILHCNDC-l) • MILAPND • MILGUND - MILHCND

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

tLDDWH ,97QOI • 19A005 WHOLE MILK, PACKAG~D SALES, FED ORDER MARKETS ONLY LAST UPDATED, 07/19/80 AT 1259 PRECISIONi 0

MIL LB ~ED MILK ORDER

tLGUND i97001 • 19AOOS NONFAT DRY MILK, C~C PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASfS (DELIVERY BASIS) LAST UPOATEO, 07/01/80 AT 1255 PRECISION; 0

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

[LHC/OOND i97002 - 1911005 NONFAT DRY MILK, SrOCK DEMAND RATIO LAST UPDATEDj 07/22 / 80 AT OA2~ PRECISIONi 3

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

MILHC~DDND • MILHCND I MtLODND

[LHCNn i97001 • iqllOOS NONFAT ORy MILK, cnMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATED, 07/01/80 AT 125b PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

[LIRWH jq3901 • jqAOOo WHOLE MILK, RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 115b PRECISION, 1

1 9bhl 00 CPI.BLS TAPE

tLM~G i97;01 • Iqll005 MANUFACTURING MILK. AMOUNT AVAILABLE ~OR CHEESE & BUTTER PROD MIL LB TRANSFORMATION LAST UPDATED, 07/22 / 80 AT OA20 PRECISIONi 3

MILMFG • MILAI' _ MILPMFFL • MILpMEIC - MILPMECC '-

Page 29: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

.",\"1' rf\ I NC.

ILMFG~R iQ7iot - ,qAOOS MANUFACTURING MILK, AMnUNT AVAILABLE FOR BUTTER/POWDER ~ROO MIL L8 LAST UPDATED~ 0~/22/80 AT 0~2b PRECI~ION~ 3

MILMFG~R • MILMFG - ~008S _ CHEA~OT •• OOQ7S * CHEAPAM

ILNDXS Iq7002 - IQA005 NONFAT DRV ~ILK,SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL SALES THOU LA LAST UPOATED~ 0~/22/80 AT 082u PRECISION~ I

MILNDXS • MILHCNDC-l) + MILAPND - MILDDNO

ILNDXS/DD lq7002 • IqAOnS NON FAT DRy MILK, SUPPLY , DEMAND RATIO RATtO LAST UPDATEDI 07/22/80 AT 082U PRECI~ION~ 3

MILNDXS/DD • MILNDXS I MILDDND

ILPi lQ7001 • IqROOb MiLK, PARITY PRICE OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS S/CWT LAST UPDATEDi 07/01/80 AT 1258 PRECISIONi 3

ILPF jQb301 • iqROOb MILK, ~LL, AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BV FARMERS S/CWT LAST UPDATED, 0~/01/80 AT 1257 PRECI~IONi 2

ILPMECC jq1101 • IqR005 CREAMED COTTAGE CHFESE, EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV (SOLID BASIS) MIL LB LAST UPDATED, 07/22/80 AT OR20 PRECISION, 3

MIL~MECC • MILAPCC I C0Utbb + 1.b3U * BFCPMK) I 1000

ILPMEFL jq1\01 • IQS005 MILK, EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV OF FLUID SALES (FAT BASIS) MIL LB LAST UPDATED I 07/22/80 AT 082u PRECISIONi 3

MILPMEFL • MILDDFL I C; • «BFCPMK • BFCFLU) I C.3b • BFCFLU»)

ILPMEic Iq1101 • IqROOS teE CREAM, ESTIMATFD PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT (FAT BASIS) MTL LB LAST UPDATED, 0~/22/80 AT 0820 PRECISIONi 3

MIL~MEIC • 4~5 * MILAPTC I (~BbbS + 3.3Q7u * BFCPMK) I 1000

ILPRIC ,Q1501 • IqROOb ICE CREAM, RELATED PRODUCTS, RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED, 07/ 25/ 80 AT 1157 PRECISION~ I

DEC IQ17.100

[LPSND ICJb20" • IQROnq NONFAT DRY MILK, SIIPPORT PRICE LAST UPDATEO, 05/13/8C1 AT lbl5 PRECISION, 2

CENTS/LB

(LPWND iCJ1001 • lqRO~5 NONFAT DRY MILK, WHOLE~ALE PRICE ~AST UPDATED~ 0111q l 80 AT 12ub PRECISIONi 2

CE'NTS/LR

(LRTNCST iQb~Ol • IqR~Ob MiLK, nAIRV RATION COST, IbX PROTEIN LAST UPOATED, 07/1Q/80 AT 12U7 FRECISIONi 1

S/TONS

(MMWPF iCJ5~01 - IQROOb MILK, CLASS II, MINNESOTA.wISCONSIN, PRICE LAST UPDATED, 0111Q/BO AT 123b PREC I !UON ~ 3

SICWT

.KCOW'.'E iQsr;ot - jqROOb MiLK cows, ESTIMATFD AVERAGE NUMBER ON FARMS LAST UPOATEOi 0~/1QIBO AT 1223 PRECI!\IDN~ 3

THOU HEAD

.I<COWUFWI ,q1"02 • IqMn5 MiLK COWS, UTILITY, PRJCE, wySCONSIN AlJCTIONS LAST UPDATED, 0&/2UIBO AT OqOb PRECISION, 2

DOL

.I<FDRTO jQb301 • jqROOb MYLK~FEED PRYCE RATIO LAST UPDATED, 0~/22/80 AT 0820 PRECISIONi 3

RATIO

TRANSFn~"'ATIClN

TPANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMA naN

AG PAICES

AG PRICES

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMA fION

CPI-BLS TAPE

DAIRV SITUATION

DA IRY PRODUCTS

AG PRICES

DAIRY MKT NEWS

MILK PRODUCTION

DAIRV MI(T NEWS

TRANSFORMATION

I I I -

I

Page 30: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

· . ~HAWTON EFA INC.

~LKFnRTO a MILPf 1 (MIlRTNCST I 2U~)

MLKH£F~P IQo101 - IqROOb MILK cnws, AVG PRlr.E RfC BY FARMERS, DAIRY HERO REPLACEMfNT8 LAST I)POATED, 0711 1UI!O AT 12'11 PRECISION! I

NFPM/NFPS IQ7nOl - IQR005 NONfAT DRy ~rLK, MAR~£T PRICE' SUPPORT PRICE LAST UPOATEOi 07/22/80 AT u820 PREClsIONj 3

NFPM/NFPS _ MILPwND I MILPSND

~fPAT. Iq7701 - IqROOb PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, AUTOS' TRUCKS LAST UPOATEO, 01/1q'BO AT 12'18 PRECISIONI I

~FP8F* JQ7;OI - IqROOb PRICES PAID BY FAR~fRS, RUILOING , FENCING LAST UPDATEO, 07/1qlRO AT 12'18 PRECISIONr 1

~FPC* IQ'l701 - IqAOOb PRICES PAID RY FAR~ERS, ALL COMMODITIES' SERVICES ~AST UPDATED, 07/1~/bO AT 12UQ PRECISION, I

~FPCM. IQ7101 - lqROOb PRICES PAID BY FAR~£R8, AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS LAST UPDATED, 07/1q/~u AT 12UQ PRECISION, I

~fPF* lQ7001 - IqROOb PRICES PAlO RY FAR~ERS, F~ED LAST UPOATED, 07/1Q'60 AT 1250 PRECISION, 1

~fPF£* JQ7!OI - IqRonb PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FUELS, ENERGY LAST UPOATED, o7/1qlaO AT 1251 PRECISIONr 1

'fPfL* Iq7001 - IqRUOb PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, fEEDER LIYESTOCK ~AST UPDATED, 07/19/80 AT 125t PRECISION, I

~FPfM. 191!01 • tqAOOb PRICES PAID 8Y FAR~ERS, FARM , MOTO~ SUPPLIES LAST UPDATED, 01/19/6 0 AT 1252 PRECISION, 1

~fPl. lq7001 • 19ROl2 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, INTEREST LAST UPOATED, 07/1q'80 AT 1252 PRECISION; I

~FPL* ,q7~OI • IQRonb PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FAMI~Y LIVING ~AST UPOATED, 01/19 / 80 AT 1253 PRECISION, 1

~FPOM. 1910U1 • 19AOOb P~ICES PAID BY FAR~ERS, OTHER MACHINERY LAST UPDATEOi OJ,19160 AT 1253 PREClSION' 1

'FPPI* JQ7QOI • IqROOb PRICES PAID 8V FARMERS, PRODUCTION ITEMS LAST UpnATEO, 07/19 / 80 AT 125'1 PRECIsIO~1 1

~FPPT 1 TIIIR* 19700 t • i9ROOO PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, PROOUCTN ITEMS, INT, TAlCES .,IUGERATE LAST UPDATEOi 07/1q/80 AT 1255 PRECISION! 1

~FPS. JQ7?OI - IqAOOb PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, SEED LAST UpnATED, 07/1QlaO AT 12Sb PRECISION, 1

'FPSC* 19710 1 • IQAOl2 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FAR~ SERVICES , CAS~ RENT LAST UPDATED; 01/1ql80 AT 1257 PRECISION! I

DOL/MEAI')

RATIO

1'10-1"-100

USC-tII-IOO

11,,0-'''-100

S'10-1u-l00

1'10-U-l00

S'10-14-100

1910-1/I-SOO

USO-lUl00

Ul0-Ua100

UtO-luSOO

l'10-1/IaI00

S'10-1.,-100

1'\O-U-IOO

1"10-1/1-100

"SO-I/I-lOO

AG PRICES

TRANSFO~MATI0N

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

loG PRIClS

loG PRICES

loG PRICES

loG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

AG PRICES

loG PRICES

AG PRICES

\ . I ~ .. i 1· I

I. i [ I

I i

\

I II ; 1 , I

i l'

: . "

Page 31: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

_ I I __ I, I I I - - t . 11 1 1-J(.

'FPTM. lQ7001 • 19AOOb PRICES PAID BY FAR~ERS, TRACTORS' SfLF.PRnPELLED MACHINERY lqlO-lu s lOO LAST UPDATED, 07/19/80 AT 1257 PRECI~ION, 1

AG PRICES

'FPTx. ,q7001 • jQAOl2 PRIC~S PAID RY FAR~ERS, TAXES IQI0-14&\00 LAST UPDATED, 07/\9 / 80 AT 12S8 PRECISION, 1

AG PRYCES

'FPW. iQ7001 • 19AOOb PRICES PD BV FARMERS, COMMODITY' SERVCS INT. TAX & WAGE RATE \910.14&100 AG PRICES LAST UPDATED; 07/19/80 AT 1258 PRECISIONi \

'FPWR. tQ7~01 - iQAOOb PRICES PAlO BV FARMERS, WAGE RATES \910-14_100 LAST UPOATEO, 07/1Ql80 AT 125Q PRECISION, t

AG PRICES

'FPZ. 197701 • 19~005 PRICES PAID BV FARMERS, FERTILIZER 1910·14&100 LAST UPDATED, Ob/13/80 AT 081~ PRECISIONi 1

AG PRICES

~HEVPM~NFPM )97401 - 198005 WHEV, pRICE RATIO, WHEY' NONFAT DRY MILK RATIO LAST UPDATED, 07/22/80 AT 0820 PRECISION, 3

TRANSFORI.1ATION

WHEYPM/NFPM • CHEwHVPM 1 MILPWNO

~HYCONAPA iQ7~01 - 19A005 wHEY, cONDENSEO, SnLID CONTENT, SwEET, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS LAST UpnATEOi 07/19~80 AT 1237 PRECISION; 0

~HYCONAPH 197501 • 19A005 wHEY, CONDENSED, SnLID CONTENT, SWEET, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE THOU La LAST UPDATED; 07/1Q/BO AT 123b PRECISION; 0

DAIRV PRODUCTS

~HYCONPMA 197~01 - i9A005 WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS, SWEET, MARKET PRICE, ANIMAL GRADE CENTS/LB LAST UPDATED, 07/19 / 80 AT 1245 PRECISION, 3

DAIRY PRODUCTS

~HYCONPMH 197~01 - 19A005 WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS, SwEET, MARKET PRICE, HUMAN GRADE CFNTS/LB LAST UPDATED, 07/1Q/80 AT 124S PRECISION, 3

DAIRV PRODUCTS

~HYLicAPA i97~Ot • 19A005 LACTOS~, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE THOU LR LAST UPDATEO; 07/1Q/aO AT 1239 PRECISION, 0

DAIRY PRODUCTS

~HYLACAPH Iq7~OI - i9A005 LACTOSE, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE THOU LB LAST UP~ATEDi 01/19/80 AT 123q PRECISION; 0

DAIRV PRnoUCTS

~HVLicHTH 197501 - Iq~OOS LACTOSE, ENDING STnCKS, HUMAN GRADE THOU La LAST UPDATED. 0;/19/80 AT 12U4 PRECISION, 0

DOA t RY PRODUC T S

~HYPDLiDMAPH i97~01 • 19AOOS WHEY, PARTtALLY DEl.ACTOSED/DEMINERALIlED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE THOU LR LAST UPDATEOi 07/19/80 AT 1238 pRECISIONi 0

DAIRV PRODUCTS

~HVP~L/DMHTH iq7~Ol _ 19A005 WHEY, PART~ DELACTnSEDiDFMINERALIlED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE THOU LR DAIRY P~ODUCTS

LAST UPDATED, 07/19/80 AT 124U PRECI~IONi 0

~HYPDLAPA 197~OI • IqAOOS WHEY, PARTIALLY DELACTOSED, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE THOU LA LAST UP~ATED. 07/1q/80 AT 1238 PRECISIONi 0

DAIRY PRODUCTS

~HYPDLAPH i97~01 • i9AOn5 WHEY, PARTIALLY DELACTnSED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE THOU LB LAST UPDATED, 07/1Q / 80 AT 1237 PRECI~IONi 0

DAIRY PRODUCTS

Page 32: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

'" I ' ll'( 1 ( ! I i" ~ I f\JC •

\ " 'r,

HyPDMAPH )97501 - 19Aon5 WHEY, PARTIALLY DE~INERALIZEO, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/19/80 AT 123A PRECISION~ 0

HYPDMHTH 197501 - 198005 WHEY, PARTIALLY DEMINERALIZED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 07/19/80 AT 1241 PRECI~IONi 0

HYSWBAPA 197~01 - 19A005 WHEY, SOLIDS IN WET BLENDS, PRODlJCTION, ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/ 19 / 80 AT 1240 PRECISION~ 0

HYSWBAPH 197501 - 19A005 WHEY, SOLIDS IN WET BLENDS, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATED~ 07/19/80 AT 12UO PRECISION; 0

'MiT'L 197001 - 19A005 PROPORTION OF TOTAL 'LUID SALES WHICH ARE WHOLE MILK SALES LAST UPDATED, 07/22 / 80 AT 0820 PRECISIONi 3

WM/TFL • MiLDDWH I (MILDDWH + MILODlF)

THOU LR DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LA DAIRY PRODUCTS

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

I~ ,

I I

Page 33: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

~- WHARTON EFA INC.

-INDEX • - zq 'EXTE

3ANK WEFATS~nAIRY.QTR

~ARIAI:lLE FROM Tn DESCRIPTION

3FCFLU )97nOI - 19Roni MILK. SUTTERFAT CONTENT OF FLUID SALES LAST UPDATED I 07/25/80 AT 130A PRECIsIONj ~

8FCFLU • ~n333 • WM/TF~ + CI_wM/TFL) * .01Q9

~fCPMK IQ7101 • 19R002 MILK. AVERAG~ SF CnNTENT OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS , DEA~ERS LAST UPDATEDI 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi Q

~UTAP )95501 - i9ROOI ~UTTER. PRODUCTION LAST UPOATEOI 07/25/80 AT 1212 PRECIsIONj 0

~UTCP j95502 • 19ROOI RUTTER. PER 1000 CiPtT~ CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 12aa PRECIsION. 3

RUTCP • BUT DO I TCPOP

lUTDD 195502 - 19AOoi RUTTER. COMMERCIA~ DISAPPEARANCE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIsIONj 1

BUT DO • BUTHCC-!) + BUTAP _ RUTGU • BUTHC

lUTGU 195501 - j"9AOOI RUTTER. CCC PRICE SlJPpmH PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) LAST UPOATEOj 07/25/80 AT 1212 PRECISIONj 0

lUTGU~E Iq5~OI - i9ROOI RUTTER. CCC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS LAST UPDATEDj 01125/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONs 1

RUTGUME • BUTGU * ~020e5 IUTHC 195501 - i9R002 RUTTER. COMMERCIAL ENDTNG STOCKS

LAST UPDATEOj 07/25/80 AT 123? PRECIsIONj 1 BUTHC • 8UTHT - BUTHE

IUTHC/DO 195502 • 19Aoni RUTTER. STOCK DEMAND RATtO LAST UPDATEDj 07/25 / 8 0 AT 12a~ PRECISIONi 1

RUTHCioo • BUTHC I BUTDD

IUTHE j9ss01 • 198002 RUTTER. GOVERNMENT (CCC) ENDING STOCKS ~AST UPDATEnj 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

IUTHT Iq5S01 • 19R002 RUTTER, TOTAL ENOING STOCKS (COMMERCIAL & GOVERNMENT) LAST UPDATEO, 07/25/80 AT 1212 PRECISION~ n

IUP11(AL IQbb02 - 19ROOI RUTTER. MAKE ALLOWANCE LAST UPDATtD, 11/15 / 79 AT 1705 PRECISIONj 3

I U T POI C H W Y t q no' - ,q A 0 0 1 MIL K. G R 0 S S RET URN S, A II T T E RIP a O'j 0 E R PRO D I AM C H E ESE P R 0-0 LAST UPDATEDI 07/25/80 AT 12aQ PRECIsIONj 3

RUTPI'l/Ct-iwy ;; BIiTPORRET I CHWYRTAM

UNITS SOURCE

PERCENT TRANSFORMATION

PERCENT AG PRICES

THOU ~B DAIRY PRODUCTS

LB TRANSFORMA TION

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

T!'IOU La DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU LB TRANSFORMA TION

THOU ~B TRANSFORMATION

RATIO TRANSFORMA TION

THOU L.B COLD STORAGE

THOU L.B COLD STORAGE

SleWT USDA

RA TIO TRANSFORMATION

Page 34: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON EFA INC.

IUTPnRRET Iq7001 - IQAOOI MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN BUTTERIPOWDER PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED. 01125180 AT 1232 PRECISIONI 3

RUTPDRRET = (~~l • (8UTPWQJCH - .8Q) + 8.Qb * MILPWND) 1 100i GROSS RETURNS AVAILA8LF TO MILK USED TO PRODUCE THE JOINT PROOliCTS. ~UTTER AND NnNFAT DRY MILK, DEPEND UPON THE MARKET PRICES OF THESE TWO PRODUCTS. ESTIMATES Of THESE RETURNS PROVIDE AN INDicATTON OF WHAT MANUFACTURERS WOULD BE WILLING TO PAY FOR MILK WHTCH IS USED FOR BUTTERIPOWDER PRooUtTIONb NO ALLOWAN~E IS MADE IN THE CALCULATrON FOR PROCESSING COSTS BUT THESE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND REASONABLY CONSTANT OVER TIMEU

SlcwT

IUTPM-PS lQ7001 - 19R002 ~UTTER. GRADE A OR BETTER, OIFF BET~EEN MARKET i SUPPORT PRICE CENTS/L8 LAST UPDATEDi 01/25/80 AT 12~U PRECISIONi 3

BUTPM.PS • BUTPW91CH • BUTPSGACH

IUTPR j9HOI - Iq/1002 BUTTER. RETAIL PRIr.E I~DEX 1907.100 LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIsION, 3

IUTPR/PCCF* lQ3qOl - IqA002 RUTTER. DEFLATED RFTAIL PRICE INDEX 19&7.100 LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT lU21 PRECIsIONj 3

RUTPRipcCF* • BUTPR I PCCF*

IUTPSGAC H ~q7001 - tqRQ03 RUTTER. SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE, GRADE A OR BETTER, CHICAGO LAST UPDATED, 05/14/80 AT looe PRECI~IONi 3

CENTS/LB

'UTPWq2CH lqS~OI - IqROOi RuTTER. WHOLESALE PRICE OF GRADE A (qZ-SCORE,CHICAGO) LAST UPDATEDj 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 3

CENTS/L8

UTPwQ3cH ~Qb~OI - IQA002 ~uTTER. WHOLESALE PRIC~ Of GRADE AA (ql-SCORE,CHICAGO) LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISION, 3

CENTS/La

UTXS iQs502 - tqAOOl RUTTER. SURPLUS, EXCES~ OF SUPP~Y OVER COMMERCIAL SALES LAST UPDATED, 01125 / 80 AT 12UU PRECISIONi I

BUTXS • aUTHC(-l) • BUTAP _ BUTDO

THOU La

UTXSlno Jq5~02 - iqAOOI RUTTER. SUPP~Y i D~MANO RATIO ~AST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1308 PRECISIONi 3

RATIO

aUTxsiDD • BUTXS I BUT no

ASETNMI lQ7~Ol - IqA001 CASEIN. IMPORTS LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISION, 0

THOU LB

HEAMXS iq7001 • IQAOOI CHEESE. AMER, SURP~US, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER tOMMERCIAL SA~ES LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 12Q~ _ PRECI~IONi t

CHEAMXS • cHEHCAM(-l) • CHEAPAM • CHEDDAM

THOU L8

HEAMXS/DD lQ700 1 - IqRool CHEESE. AMERICAN, SUPPLY' DEMAND RATIO ~AST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT Il0R PRECI~IONi 3

RATIO

CHEAMxS/OD • CHEAMXS I CHEDDAM

HEAPAl iqssot - \qAOOl CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL (AMERICAN i OTHER TYPES), PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED, 01125/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU La

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSfORMATION

CPI-SLS TAPE

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY SITUATION

DAIRY MKT NEWS

DAIRY MKT NEWS

TRANSfORMATlON

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY MKT NEwS

TRANSFORMA TION

. TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY PRODUCTS

Page 35: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

VIHA~ TON EF' A INC.

:HEAPAM Iq5~01 - IqR002 CHEESE. AMERIcAN, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED: 07/25/80 AT 123? PRECISIONi 0

:HEAPOT 195~Ot • 19ROOt CHEESE. OTHER THAN AMERICAN, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIg!n N ~ I

CHEAPOT = CHEAPAL - CHEAPAM

:HECPAM iQ7001 - 19AODl CHEESE. AMERICAN, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATEOi 07/25/RO AT I?UU PRECISIONi 3

CHECPAM • CHEDDAM 1 TCpOP

:HECPOT lQ7001 - 19ROOI CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 12UU PRECIslnNj 3

CHECPOT • CHEDDOT 1 TCPOP

:HEDDA~ 197001 - 19ROOI CHEESE. AMERICAN, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi I

CHEDOAM • CHEHCAMC-l) • CHEAPAM - CHEGTPR + CH[MJAM • CHEHCAM THIS VARIARLE INCLUDES CHEESE IMPORTS WHICH ARE AMERICAN TVPE CHEESE~

:HEDDUT 197001 - 19AOOI CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / aO AT 1232 PRECIsIONj I

CHEDDOT • CHEHTOTC-l) + CHEAPOT + CHEMIOT • CHEHTOT THIS VARIARLE INCLUDES ALL CHEESE IMPORTS EXCEPT THOSE IMPORTS WHICH ARE AMERICAN TVPF. CHEESE.

:HEGTPR 197901 • 19AOOI CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.CC PRICE SUPPORT PURCHASES (DE~IVERV BASIS) LAST UpDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

:HEGTPRME 197001 - 19AOOI CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.CC ~UPPORT PURCHASES, MILK EQUIVALENTS LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT . 1232 PRECI~IONt 3

CHEGTpRME • CHEGTpR * ~OOqAa H(HC/ODAM 197001 • jqROOI CHEESE. AMERICAN, ~TOCK DEMAND RATIO

LAST UPDATEDj Ob/2 0/ aO AT 1007 PRECISIONI 3 CHEHC/DDAM • CHEHCAM 1 CHEDDAM

HEHCAM 195501 - IqA002 CHEESE. AMERICAN, r.OMMERCIAL ENDING STOCKS ~AST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT 1233 PRECI~IONi I

CHEHCAM • CHEHTAM - CHF.HEAM

HEHFAM lQ5S01 • IQA002 CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRICAN, GOvERNMENT ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / aO AT 1232 PRECI~IONi 0

HEHTAL ,Q7g0 1 - 19A002 CHEESE. TOTAL NATURAL, ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PREcISION, 0

HEHTAM 195~OI - IQA002 CHEESE. NATURAL AMFRtCAN, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 1233 PRECI~IONI 0

HEHTOT IQ7001 - IQA002 CHEESE. OTHER NATURAL, TOTAL ENDING STOCKS

THOU LB DAIRY PkODUCTS

THOU LA TRANSFORMATION

LB TRANSFORMATION

LB TRANSFORI..IATION

THOU ~B TRANSFORMATION

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

THOU L8 TRANSFORMATION

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

THOU La COLD STORAGE

THOU LB COLD STORAGE

THOU LB COLD STORAGE

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

Page 36: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON EFA INC.

LAST UPOATEOi 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECI~InNi CHEHTOT • CHEHTAL • CHF-HTAM

CHEMI 195501 • Iq~OOI CHEESE. ALL IMPORTS LAST UPDATED. 07/2S/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY MKT NEwS

CHEMIAM 197~01 • jQAOOI CHEESE. IMPORTS, AMERICAN LAST UPOATEoj 01125/80 AT 1232 PRECISION. 0

THOU loB DAIRY MKT NEWS

CHEMIOT ,q7~01 • IQAOOI CHEESE. IMPORTS, OTHER NATURAL LAST UPDATED, 07/2S/80 AT 1232 PRECISION. 0

CHEMIOT • tHEM! • CHEMTAM

THOU LB TRANSFORMAT ION

CHEMKAL . ,90102 • 19R001 CHEESE. MAKE ALLOWANCE LAST UPDATED, 11/19/79 AT 1221 PRECISIONi 3

S/CWT USDA

CHEPGCH 195501 • Iq~003 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, SUPPORT PURCHASE PRICE LAST UPDATEDi 05/1~/80 AT 1009 PRECISIONi 2

CENTS/LB DAIRY SITUATION

CHEPM.PG J97~01 • IQAOn2 CHEESE. CHEDDAR, DTFFERENCE BETWEEN MARKET, SUPPORT PRICE LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 12~U PRECISIONi 3

CENTS/LB TRANSFORMATION

CHEPM.PG • CHEPMGBBL • CHEpGCH

CHEPMG8SK j97~01 • 19Aoo2 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLnCK, GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

CENTS/LB DAIRY MKTNEWS

CHEPMGABL ,97301 • 19R002 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BARRELS,.GREEN BAY MARKET PRICE LAST UPDAT[Oj 07/2S/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

CENTS/LB DAIRY MKT NEWS

CHEPMWiAPBK 190501 • 19A002 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BLOCKS. WISCONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRICE LAST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 2

CENTS/L8 DAIRY MKT NEWS

CHEPMWjAPBL 190R03 • 19A002 CHEESE. CHEDDAR BARRELS, WIScONSIN ASSEMBLING POINTS PRICE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 2

CENTS/LB DAIRY MKT NEWS

CHEPR/PCCF* i97301 • 19A002 CHEESE. AMERICAN, ~EFLATED RETAIL PRICE INDEX Ubhl00 TRANSFORMA TION LAST UPDATED, 07/ 25 / 80 AT IU21 PRECISION; 1

CHEPRiPcCF* • CHEPRAM i PCCF*

CHEPRAM jQ7301 • j9AQ02 CHEESE. AMERICAN, RETA~L PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

DEC 1977.100 CPI-BLB TAPE

CHEWHYAP lq7301 • iqAOOI WHEY, TOTAL PRODUCTION. HUMAN & ANIMAL GRADE . LAST UPDATEDi 01/25/60 AT 1232 PRECISIONi I

CHEW~YAP • CHEWHYAPH • CHEWHYAPA

THOU L8 TRANSFORMA nON

CHEWHYAPA IQ7~01 • IQROOI WHEY, PRODUCTION, iNIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1212 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

CHEWHYAPH 197501 • 19AODI WHEY, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

CHEWHYCP IQ7301 • 198001 WHEY, PER 1000 CAPTTA CONSUMPTION LB TRANSFORMATION

Page 37: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON £fA INC :

LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 12uU PRECIsIONj 3 CHEWHVCP • CHEWHYDD I ~CPOP

CHEWHVnO 197301 - Iq~OOI WHEY, TOTAL COMMERCIAL DISAPPEARANCE, HUMAN' ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATEOi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

CHEWHyDD • CHEWHYHT(-I~ + CHEWHVAP • CHEWHYHT

THOU LB

CHEWHYHA IQ7bOI • Iq~OOI WHEY, ENDING STOCK~, ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATEDi Oj/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LR

CHEWHYHH U7bOl - Iql\OOI WHEY. ENDINIi STOCKS, HllMAN GRAOE LAST UPOATEOi 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB

CHEWHYHT ~q7301 • 19ROOI WHEY, TOTAL, COMMERr.IAL ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN , ANIMA~ GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISIONi 1

CHEWHyHT • CHEWHYHA + CHEWHYHH

THOU L.B

CHEWHYHT/DD lQ7301 - 19~OOI WHEY, STOCK DEMAND RATIO LAST UPDATEOi 01125/S0 AT 12~4 PRECISIONi 3

tHEWHyHT/DD • CHEWHyHT I CHEWHYOD

RATIO

:HEWHYPM i97301 - 191\001 WHEY, MARKET PRICE. HUMAN FOOD, CENTRAL STATES FOB LAST UPDATEOi 01125/80 AT 1212 PRECISIONi 1 '

CENTS/LB

CHEwHyPM • wHEPM I 100

RATIO :HWy/BIIPD i9nOI - lQl\OOI MILK, GROSS RETURNS, AM CHEESE PROD, BUTTER/POWDER PROD --I;U T-UPOATfD-i-0-?-I25-'SO-n-H~~4 pREe I SIONi- l-- --------------------

CHWY/BUPO • CHWYRTAM I BUTPDRRET

;HWyRTAM IQ7301 • 191\001 MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO MILK USED IN AMERICAN CHEESE PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEOi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 3

CHWYRTAM • (9~7~ • (CH~pMGRBL + 2.1) + 5i7 , * CHEW~yPM + ~3 * CBUTpWQ1CH • ~~O)) I 100~ GROSS RETURNS AVAILABLE TO MILK USED TO PRODUCE THE JOINT ~ROOUCTS, AMERICAN C~EESE AND WHEY, DEPEND UPON THE MARKET PRICE , OF THESE TWO PRODUCTS. ESTIMATES OF THESE RETURNS PROVIDE AN INOICATION OF WHAT MANUFACTURERS WOULD BE WILLING TO PAY FOR MILK WHICH IS USED FOR AMERICAN CHEESEIWHEY PRODUCTION~ NO ALLOWANCE IS MADE IN THE CALCULATION FOR PROCESSING COSTS BUT THESE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND REASONABLY CONSTANT OVER TI ME/;

SlCWT

:HWYRTMO )Q7301 - IqAOOI MILK, GROSS RETURNS TO , MILK USED IN MOZZARELLA CHEESE PRODUCTN ./CWT LAST UpDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIsIONI 3

CHWVRTMO • (8~S * CCHEpMGBBL + b~q) + l~S * CBUTPW93CH , _ t~09' + ~~" • (BUTPWq1CH • ~.O) + 5.5 • CHEWHYPM) I lao.

:OWPF tqS~OI • i9800c COwS, AVERAGE PRICF RE~EIVED BY FARMERS, US S/CWT LAST UPDATED, 0,/08/S0 AT 182b PRECIsIONI 2

:OWPF/MILPF jqb101 - 198001 MILK, pRICE RATIO nF cpws I ALL MILK RATIO LAST UPDATED, 07/25/S0 AT 124~ PRECISION, 3

CQwPFiMILPF • COWPF I MILPF

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY PRODUCTS

DAIRY PRODUCTS

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY PRODUCTS

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

TRAN ,SFORMA TION

AG PRICES

TRANSFORMATION

Page 38: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHAkT ON EFA I N C~

FLPR/PCCF. 193901 - 19A002 WHOLE MILK, DEFLATFD R~TAIL P~lCE INDEX 190hlOO LAST UPDATED, 01/25/80 AT \U21 PRECISION, 3

rlPR/Pccr. 5 MILIRWH I PCCF.

fLU+MFGCRM 191iol - IqAOOI CREAM, AMOUNT AVAIj "ABLf FROM BUTTER PRODUCTION MIL L8 lAST UPDATEDi 01/25 / 80 AT 1309 PRECISIONi 3

FLU+MFGCRM • FLUCRM • MFGCRM

FLUCRM 191iol • 19AOOI CREAM, AMOUNT AVAII : A~LE FROM FLUID SALES LAST UPDATED, 01/25/80 AT 130~ PRECISIONi 3

FLUCRM. MILPMEFL * ((RFCPMK • BFCFLU) I ( ~ lo • BFCfLU))

MIL LB

FMO/TF ,97001 _ 198001 PROPORTION OF TOTA~ FLUID SALES WHICH ARE MARKET ORDER SALES RATIO lAST UPDATED, 05/01/80 AT 1040 PRECISION; 3

FMO/TF • MYLDOFL I MILnO FL0T MTHIS VARIABLE EQUALS THE RATIO OF THE ANNUAL TOTAL OF FEDERAL ORDER LOWrAT & SKIM (MILDDLFl AND WHOLE MILK (MILDDWH) PACKAGED SALES TO THE ANNUAL TOTAL FLVID MILK AND CREAM SALES (PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS) REPORTED IN USDA'S IDAjRV SITUATION'. IT IS USED WITH DATA ON QUARTERLY FEDERAL ORnER FLUID LOwFAT.SKIM AND WHOLE MILK SALES TO ESTIMATE THE QUARTERLY TOTAL FLUID MILK SALES (MILDOrL) ~ "

~RSDP " ~9b~01 • 19AOOI DAIRY PRODUCTS, FARM.R~TAIL SPREAD LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISION, 2

19018100

:RSFQ JQ7QOI • 19AOOI rATS AND OILS, FARM.REYAIL SPREAD LAST UPDATED. 07/2S/80 AT 1212 PRECISION, 2

1"018100

~ARATIn j9b202 - 19AOOl MILK, io YR AVG, A~L MTLK WHSALE PRICE' MANU GRADE MILK PRICE LAST UPDATEDj 12/08119 AT 10U7 PRECIsIONI 3

PERCENT

4ARPR ,91QOI • IQR002 MARGARINE, RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

1"075\00

4ARPR/PCCF* lqlqOI • IqA002 MARGARyNE, DEFLATEo RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATED, 07/25/ao AT IU21 PRECI~IONi 1

MARPRjPCCFt • MARPR I PCCF.

1'018100

'COWFDRT iqbOOI - 19A002 MILK, GRAIN' CONCFNTRATES FED TO DAIRV COwS PER DAY LAST UPOATEDi OblOQ/80 AT lU09 PRECISION; 2

L8

IFGCRM ,97iol _ 19ROOI CREAM, AMOUNT AVAI~ABLE FROM NONFAT DRV MILK PRODUCTION LAST UPDATED, 07/2S/aO AT 130q " PRECISIONi 1

MFGCRM • MILMFG.R * ((~.772 * BFCPMK) •• 00IU)

IolIL 1.8

'IFPF Jqb~Ol - 19A002 MILK, ELIGIBLE FOR FLUJD MARKET, AVG pRICE REC'D BY FARMERS LAST UPDATEO. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISION, 3

S/CWT

IILAi ." lQ550\ - IQR002 MILK, ~RODUCTION PfR C~W LAST UPOATED. 07/25 / aO AT 1232 PRECISION, 0

LB

ILAOJRP Iqb201 • Iq8001 MILK, ADJUSTED BASE PRYCE DOLLARS

TRANSFO~MATION

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

TRANSFORMATION

AG OUTLOOK lL f

AG OUTL.OOK

DAIRY SITUATION

CPt-BLS TAI'E

TRANSFORIolA TION

MILK PRODUCTION

TRANSFORMA TION

AG PRICES

MILK pRODUCTION

DAIRY SITUATION

Page 39: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON EFA INC.

LAST UPDATED. OS/OI/BO AT 10~0 PRECISIONi 2

MILAP 19S~01 - 19R002 MILK, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATEOi 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 1

MILAP • MILAA * MLKCO~lE

~IL LB . TRANSFORMATION

MILAPCC !95~01 - 19ROOI CREAMED COTTAGE CHF,ESE, PRODUCTION LAST UPDATE". 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISION. 0

THOU La DAIRV PRODUCTS

MILAPIC j95S01 - i9ROOI ICE CREAM, PRODUCT TON LAST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISION. 0

THOU GAL DAIRY PRODUCTS

MILAPND 195501 - 19RQOl NONFAT DRy MILK, HIJMAN FOOD, SPRAY & ROLLER, PRODUCTION THOU LB DAIRV PRODUCTS LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

MILCPCC J9S501 - 19ROOI CREAMEO COTTAGE CHF.ESE, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 12~~ PRECISION, 3

LB TRANSFORMATION

MILCPCC • MILAPCC I TCpOP

MILCPFL 197001 - 19ROOI FLUID MILK, PER 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT IlOA PRECISION; 1

LB TRANSFORMATION

MILCPFL • MILDDFL I TCpOP

MILCPIC J95501 - t9ROOI ICE CREAM, PER lOOn CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATED. 07/25 / 80 AT 12~" PRECISIONi 1

GAL TRANSFORMATION

MILCPIC • MILAPIC 1 TCpop

MILCPNO 197002 - 19Aooi NONFAT ORy ~ILK, PFR 1000 CAPITA CONSUMPTION LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 12~~ PRECISIONi 1

LB TRANSFORMA TION

MILCPNO • MILDDND I TCpOP

MILDDFL J97001 - 19AOOI MILK, ESTIMATED TOTAL FLlJID MILK SALES (PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS) LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 12~" PRECISION; 3

MILDDFL • rMILDDWH • MTLDDLF) I FMOITF

MIL LB TRANSFORMA TION

MILDDL~ 197001 _ 19Aooi MILK, LOWFAT , SKIM, PACKAGED SALES, FED ORDER MARKETS ONLY LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 pRECISION, 0

MIL LB FED MILK ORDER

MILDDNO 197002 - 19AOOl NONFAT CRy ~ILK, TnTAL COMMERCIAL DISA~PEARANCE LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECI~IONi 1

MILDOND • MILHCND(-l) + MILAPND • MILGUND • MILHCND

THOU LB TRANSFORMATION

~lLD~W~ 197001 • 19AOOI WHOLE MILK, PACKAGFO SALES, FED ORDER MARKET~ ONLY LAST UPDATED; 01/25/80 AT 1212 PRECISION; 0

MIL LB FED MILl< ORDER

~ILGUNn 197001 - 19AOOl NONFAT CRy MILK, Cec PRICE SU~PORT PURCHASES (DELIVERY BASIS) LAST UPDATEDj 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

~ILHC/nDND J97Q02 • 19ROOI NONFAT CRy ~ILK, STOCK . DEMAND RATIO LAST UPOATEDr 07/25/~O AT 12"" PRECISIONI 3

RATIO TRANSFORMATION

MILHC/DOND • MIL~CND I MILDDNO

~ILHCNI) lQ7001 • lQAOOI NONFAT CRy MILK, CnMMERCtAL ENDING STOCKS THOU La DAIRY PRODUCTS

Page 40: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

wHARTON ErA INC~

LAsT UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONI 0

MILlRWH 193901 - 19/\002 WHOLE MILK, RETAIL FlRICE INDEX 19b1 a l00 CPI-BLS TAPE LAST UPDATED, 07125/80 AT 12:32 PRECISIONI I

MILMFG 197101 - 19/\001 MANUFACTURING MILK, AMOUNT AVAILABLE fOR CHEESE' BUTTER PROD MIL LB TRANSFOHMATION LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 130Q PRECISION, 3

MILMFG • MtLAP - ~ILPM~FL • MILPMEIC • MILPMECC

MILMFG.R ,97101 • 1911001 MANUFACTURING MILK, AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR BUTTERIPowDER PROD MIL LB LAST UPDATEO, 07/25/80 AT 130q PRECISIONi 3

MILMFG~R • MILMfG _ ~On85 • CHEAPOT • w00975 • CHEAPAM

TRANSFORMATION

MILNOXS ,97p02 • 1911001 NONFAT DRy MILK,SURPLUS, EXCESS OF SUPPLY OVER COMMERCIAL' SALES THOU L8 LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 12~~ PRECISIONI 1

MILNDXS • MILHCND(-l) ~ MILAPND • MILDDND

TRANSFORMATION

~ILNDXS/DD 197002 - 1911001 NON FA+ DRy MILK, SUPFILY I DEMAND RATIO RATIO LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 130A PRECISIONi 3

TRANSFORMA lION

MILNDXS/DD • MILNDXS I MILDONO

~ILpi ,97001 • 19110n2 MILK, PARITY FlRICE OF ALL MILK SOLD TO PLANTS S/CWT LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi 3

AG PRICES

~ILPF ,9blOI • 1911002 MILK, ALL, AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS S/CWT LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 FlRECIsION, 2

AG PRICES

~ILPF~E j97iol • 1911001 MILK, ALL, AVERAGE PRI~E RECEIVED BY FARMERS, ESTIMATE I/CWT TRANSFORMA lION LAST UFIOATED, 07/25/80 AT 130Q PRECISION, 3

MILPF~E • (MIFPF • MILPMErL • MIMMWFlF • (MILAFI • MILPMEFL» I MILAP

~ILPMECC ;97101 _ 19AOOI CREA~ED COTTAGE CHFESE, EST PRODUCERS MILK EQUIV (SOLID 8ASIS) MIL LB LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 12"~ PRECIsION, 3

MILpMECC • MILAPCe I (~~Ibb + l.b34 * BFCpMK) I 1000

TRANSFORMA lION

~ILPMEFL 197iol • j911oo1 MiLK, EST PRODUCERs MILK EQuIV OF FLUID SALES CFAT BASIS) MIL L8 LAST UPDATEDi 07/25 / 80 AT ll0A PRECIsIONj 3

MILPMEFL • MILDDFL I (i • ((BFCPMK • BFCFLU) I (.3b • BFCFLU»)

TRANSFORMA nON

~ILP~Eic 197101 • 19AOOl IcE CREAM, ESTIMATFD PRODUCERS MILK EQUIVALENT (FAT BASIS) MIL LB LAST UPDATEOi 01/25 / 80 AT 12~4 PRECISIONi 3

MILpMEtC • ~~5 * MILAPTC 1 (~8bb5 + 3.397~ * BFePMK) , 1000

TRANSFOR~A lION

~ILPRIC 197~O\ - 19~002 IcE CREAM, RELATEn PRODUCTS, RETAIL pRICE I~DEX LAST UP~ATEOi 01125 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi I

DEe 19n-l00 CPI-BLS TAPE

~ILPRIC/PCCF. i9730\ - 19~o02 IcE CREAM, DEFLATEn RETAIL PRICE INDEX LAST UPDATEDi 01125/80 AT 1~21 PRECISIONi 3

MILPRIC/PccF* • MILFlRIr. 1 PCCF*

l!JoT.IOO TRANSFORMATION

~ILPS i9bOO l - 19A003 MILK, MANUFACTURING GRADE, SUPPORT PRICE LAST UPDATED, 05/1~/80 AT lOll PRECISIONi l

S/ewT DAIRY SITUATION

Page 41: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON EFA INC.

MILPSNn IIHnol - IIHI003 NONFAT DRy to1IL.K, SIIPPORT PRICE CENTSILB L.AST UPDATE!), O~/I~/BO AT 100Q PRECIsIONj 2

MILPWND j97001 - 19AOOI NON~AT DRV MILK, WHOLESALE PRICE CENTSILB L.AST UPDATEDi 01125/80 AT 1212 PRECIsIONj 2

MILRTNeST 190]01 - 19A002 MILK, DAIRV RATION COST, 10~ PROTEIN LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIsIONj 1

SITONS

MIMMwPF 195;01 - 19A002 MILK, CLASS II, MINNESOTA-wISCONSIN, PRICE LAST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi l

SICWT

MIMMWPF~ 197301 - 19AOOI MILK, WEIGHTED AVG GROSS RETURNS FOR MANUFACTURING PURPOSES SICWT LAST UPDATE!), 01125/80 AT 1309 PRECISIONj l

MIMMWPF~ • «(MIL.MFG.R * BUTPDRRET) + (.0085 * CHEAPOT * CHWYRTMO) ~ (.00975 * CHElPAM * ~HWYRTAM» I MILMFG

MLKCOW 197?OI • 19A002 MILK COWS, NUMRER nN FARMS, BEGINNING OF QUARTER ESTIMATE T~OU HEAD LAST UPDATE!), 0112~/80 AT 12~3 PRECIsIONj 1

.SECOND QUARTER VALUES EQUAL . THE AVERAGE NUM8ER OF MILK COwS ON FARMS DURING MARCH~ FOUR~H QUARTER VALUES EQUAL THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF MILK cowS ON FARMS DURING SEPTEMBERJ (FROM MILK PRODUCTION)"

ML.KCO~~E J95~01 - 198002 MILK cowS, ESTIMATFD AVERAGE NUMBER ON FARMS T~OU HEAD LAST UPDATED. 01125/80 AT 1232 PRECIsIONj 3

MLKCOW~EL~ i95~01 • t9AOOl MILK COWS, ESTIMATfD AVERAGE NUMBER ON FARMS, YR OVE~ YR CHANGE PERCENT LAST UPDATED, 07/11 / aO AT 0951 PRECISIONi 3

MLKCOwWEL4 • MLKCOW~E ~4

~LKCOwUPwI 197~02 - i9ROOl MjLK COWS, UTILI TV, PRYCE, WISCONSIN AUCTIONS DOL LAST UPDATEDi 01125/eO AT 1232 PRECISIONi 2

~LKFDRTO j90~01 • 19A002 MILK-FEED PRICE RATIO RATIO LAST UPDATED. 01125/80 AT 12~4 - PRECISIONi 3

MLKFD~TO • MILPF 1 (MILRTNCST I 20~)

~LKHEFR 197301 - 19R002 MiLK COWS, HEIFER REPLACEMENTS 500 LBS OR MORE, SEMI-ANN NUMBER THOU HEAD LAST UPDATEOi 00/19/eo AT 1204 PRECISIONi 1

~LKHEFR~E JQ7301 - i9A002 MILK cowS, HEIFER REPLACEMENTS 500 L.BS OR MORE, SEMI.ANN NUMBER THOU HEAD LAST UPDATED, 01111/eO AT 0951 PRECISIONi 3

MLKHEFR.E • MLKHEFR

~LKHEFRP i90301 • j9Aooi MiLK COWS, . AVG PRI~E REC BY FARMERS, DAIRY HERD ~EPLACEMENTS DOLIHEAD LAST UPDATEDi 00/2~/80 AT oe4~ PRECISIONi 2

~FPM/NFPS lq7~01 • 19AOOI NONFAT DRy ~ILK, MARKET PRICE I SUPPORT PRICE RATIO LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 12~u PRECIsIONj 3

NFPM/NFPS • MILPWND I MILPSND

'ARITY ~9~901 • t9ROOl MILK, PERCENTAGE OF PARITY EQUIVALENT PERCENT

DAIRY SITUATION

DAIRY P~ODUCTS

AG PRICES

DAIRY MKT NEWS

TRANSFORMATION

DARY SIT.MLI< PR

MILK PRODUC TI ON

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY MKT NEWS

TRANSFO~MATION

DAIRY SITUATION

DAIRY SITUATION

AG PRICES

TRANSFORMATION

DAIRY SITUATION

Page 42: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON HA INC.

LAST UPDATEDI 11/15/79 AT 1955 PRECIsIONj J

peeF* ,9IJOI - 19R002 CONSUMER PRICE INDrx. ~S FOOD 19b7-1~0 ~AST UPDATlDa 07/25 / 80 AT 1137 PRECISIONI 3

BLS

PFPAT* 197001 - 198002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, AUTOS' TRUCKS 1910.1~-100 LAST UPDATED I 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECIsIONj 1

AG PRICES

PFP8F* ,97QOI - 19R002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, BUI~DING , FENCING 1910.1~-100 ~AST UPOATEOa 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECIsIONI 1

AG PRICES

PFPC* Iq~701 • 19R002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, A~~ COMMODITIES' SERVICES 1910-lu-l00 ~AST UPDATEOi 07/25/80 AT 1211 PRECISIONi 1

AG PRICES

PFPC*.E ~q7Qol • 198001 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, A~~ COMMODITIES, SERVICES, ESTIMATE 1910-1u-l00 ~AST UPDATED I 07/11 / 80 AT 0951 PRECIsIONI J

PFPC*~E _ ~(57Ub • pFPpI*) • (30~~ * PFP~*» I 88.

TRANSFORMATION

PFPC*L4 j94~01 - i9A002 PRICES PO BY FARMERS. COMMODITIES' SERVICES, YR OVER YR CMANGE PERCENT LAST UPDATEDI 07/25/80 AT 1244 PRECISIONI 3

PFPC*LQ _ (PFPC* • PFPe*C-4)) 1 PFPC*C-Q)

TRANSFORMA TION

PFPCM* 197001 • 198202 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, AGRICU~TURA~ CHEMICALS 1910-1u-l00 ~AST UPOATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi I

AG PRICES

PFPF* i97QoI • 19R002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FEED 1910-14-100 ~AST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1211 PRECISIONI I

AG PRICES

PFPFE* _ j97~01 • 19R002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FUELS' ENERGY 1910-1Q-l00 LAST UPOATED. 07/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi I

AG PRICES

PFPFL* ,97Qol • 198002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FEEDER LIVESTOCK 1910-14-100 LAST UPDATED. 07/25 / 80 AT 1211 . PRECIsION. I

AG PRICES

PFPFM* ,97nol • 198002 PRICES PAID BY FAR~ERS, FARM' MOTOR SUPPLIES lQl0-14.100 LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISIONI 1

AG PRICES

~FPl* 197nol - 19ROO~ PRICES PAlO BY FARMERS, INTEREST 1910-1~_IOO LAST UPDATEDi 07/Z5 / 80 AT 1231 PRECIsION, 1

AG PRICES

~FP~* 197001 • 198002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FAMILY LIVING 1910-1Q-l00 AG PRICES LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISION, I

~FPOM* i97001 - 19R002 · PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, OTHER MACHINERY 1910-1Q-l00 LAST UPDATEOi 07/25 / 80 AT 1211 PRECISION, I

AG PRICES

~FPPI* i97001 • 19R002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, PRODUCTION ITEMS IQ10-14-100 AG PRICES LAST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISION, I

)FPPTITWR* j97QOI - 19~002 PRICES PAlO BY FARMERS, PRODUCTN ITEMS. INT, TAXES ,WAGE RATE 1910-IQ.l00 LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 1213 PRECISION, I

AG PRICES

)FPPIITWR*.'E 197001 • 198001 PRICES PO BY FARMERS, PRODUtTN ITEM, INT TAX &WAGE RATE, EST 1910-1118100 TRANSFORMATION

Page 43: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

WHARTON UA INC ..

LAST UPDATED, 07/11/80 AT oqsl pRECISIONI 3 PFPPIITWR*~E K CCS7.b * PFPPI*) + C~.O * pFPI*) • C2.8 • PFPTX.) , • C5~2 * PFPWR*» I bq~b

PFPS. lq7~OI • IqR202 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, SEED LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / ao AT 1233 PRECISIONI I

lC~10.1UI00 AG PRICES

PFPSc* Jq7,01 • IQROOij PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FARM SERVICES' CASH RENT LAST UPDATED, 01/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONI I

lql0-1UIOO AG PRICES

PFpTM* lQ7gol • lQR002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, TRACTORS, SELF.PROPELLED MACHINERY LAST UPDATED, 07/25/aO AT 1233 pRECISIoNI I

lQ10-l"1100 AG PRICES

PFPTx. JQ7QOl • IQROOij PRICES PAID AY FARMERS, TAXES LAST UPDATED, 01125 / 80 AT 1233 PRECISION, 1

lQ10-lijllOO AG PRICES

PFPl'h lQ7POI • iq/1002 PRICES PO BY FARMERS. COMMODITY' SERVCS INT. TAX, WAGE RATE PHO-UIIOO AG PRICES LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1233 pRECISION, 1

PFPW*.f lQ7001 • IqROOl PRICE PO BY FRMERS. COMMODITY' SERVCS INT TAX 'WAGE RATE, EST lQl0-1"llOO LAST UPDATEDi 01/11/80 AT oQ51 PRECI~IONi 3

PFPW*~E I C(bq~b t PFPPIITwRt) + (30." * PFPLt» I lOO~

TRANSFORMATION

PFPWR* Iq7~01 • IqR002 PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, WAGE RATES lQ10-lijll00 LAST UPOATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1213 PRECISIONi I

AG PRICES

PFPl* )Q7Qol • ,qAOOl PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, FERTILIZER lQ10-l,,'100 LAST UPDATED, 07/25 / 80 AT 1213 PRECIsIONa 1

AG PRICES

TCPOP lq4~Ol • II:'ROOI TOTAL CIVILIAN POPIILATJoN OF THE U.S.' MIL LAST UPDATED, 01121 / 80 AT 1302 PRECISION, 1

QTR MODEL.

TCPOP I NPTM • NLM

WHEyPMtNFPM Jq1QOI • jQ8001 WHEy. pRICE RATIO, wHEy NONFAT DRy MILK RATIO LAST UPDATED, 01/25 / 80 AT 12ij4 PRECI~IONa 3

WHEYPM/NFPM • CHEWHYPM I MtLPWND

TRANSFORMA lION

wHyCaNAPA iq7~01 • IqAOOl WHEy. CONDENSED, Sn~ID CONTENT, SWEET, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 0;/25/ eO AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

WHYCONAPH lq7~Ol • jqRonl WHEY. cONDENSED, SnLID CONTENT, SWEET, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 01/25/80 AT 1212 P~ECISIONi 0

THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

WHYCONP~A lq7~01 • jQROOl WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS, SWEET, MARKET PRICE, ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATEDi 0;/25 / 80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 3

CENTS/LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

WHYCONPMH ~q7~OI • jqROOI WHEY, CONDENSED SOLIDS, SWEET, MARKET PRICE, HUMAN GRADE LAST UPDATED, 01125/80 AT 1212 PRECISION, 3

CENTS/LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

WHYLicAPA lq7~Ol • IQAOOI LACTOSE, PRODUCTION. ANIMAL GRADE LAST UPDATED, 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.B DA IRY PRODUCTS

WHY~icAPH lQ7501 • jqllOOl LACTOSE, PRODUCTION, HIJMAN GRADE THOU LB DAIRY PRODUCTS

Page 44: A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF...lLast year 30% of the milk produced in the United States was used in the production of natural cheese. This represents about 2/3 of total

'.j WHARTO~ £FA INC~

L.AST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1258 PRECISIONi 0

DAIR'" PRODUCTS ~H"'L.ACHTH 197~01 - 198001 LACTOSE, ENDING STnc~S. HUMAN GRADE L.AST UPOATEDi 01/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.·B

WH ... PDL.iOMAPH 197~01 _ 198001 WHEY. PARTIAL.L. ... DELACTOSED/DEMINERAL.IZED, PRODUCTION,HUMAN GRADE THOU L.B L.AST UPDATED. 01/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

DAIR ... PRODUCTS

WHYPDL.iOMHTH 197501 • i9AOOI ~HEY, PART~ DEL.ACTnSED/DEMINERAL.IZED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE THOU L.8 L.AST UPDATEDi 01/25/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi 0

DAIR'" PRODUCTS

DAIR'" PRODUCTS WHYPDL.APA ~97~01 - 198001 WHEY, PARTIAL.L.Y DELACTnSED, PRODUCTION, ANIMAL. GRADE L.AST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.B

WH"'PDL.APH i97~01 - 198001 WHEY, PARTIAL.L.Y DE~ACTnSED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE L.AST UPDATEDi 0;/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.B DAIRY PRODUCTS

WH",POMAPH 197~Ol • 198001 WHEY, PARTIAL.L.Y DEMINERALIZED, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE THOU L.8 DAIRY PHODUCTS L.AST UPOATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

WH",POMHTH 197501 • 198001 WHEY, PARTIAL.L. ... OEMINERALIZED, ENDING STOCKS, HUMAN GRADE L.AST UPDATED, 01125/80 AT 1233 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.B DAIRY PRODUCTS

WH"'~WBAPA 197501 - 198001 WHEY, SOL.IDS IN WET BL.ENOS. PRODUCTION, ANIMAL GRADE L.AST UPDATEDi 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECISIONi 0

THOU L.B OAIRV PRODUCTS

DAIRY PRODUCTS WHYSWB1PH j97~01 • 198001 WHEY. sOL.IOS I~ WET BL.~NDS, PRODUCTION, HUMAN GRADE ; L.AST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 1232 PRECIsiONi 0

THOU L.8

TRA~SFORMATION WM/TFL j97pOl • 198001 PROPOR~ION OF TOTA~ FLVID SAL.ES WHICH ARE WHOL.E MIL.K SAL.fS L.AST UPDATED. 07/25/80 AT 12U" PRECISION. 3

WM/T'~ • MIL.DDWH I (MI~DOWH • MILDDL.F)

RATIO