a quantitative outlook at the future of energy · 2014. 10. 24. · © 2014, gian paolo beretta,...

© 2014, Gian Paolo Beretta, “A quantitative outlook at the future of energy”, Northeastern University, Boston, Oct.24, 2014

Unit of energy for this talk: the “toe” (ton of oil equivalent) = the average heating value of 1 metric ton of oil (1000 kg = 7.33 barrels)

1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.87 GJ = 11,630 kWh • 1 toe at $95/bbl costs about $700;

• 1 toe of oil used in a 52% efficient oil-fired power plant yields 6,050 kWh of electricity;

Global yearly consumption of primary energy in 2013: 14 Gtoe

A quantitative outlook at the future of energy World energy consumption and resources: an outlook for the rest of the 21st century

Average per-capita consumption

of primary energy in 2007:

North America: 7.2 toe/yr

Europe : 3.8 toe/yr

World average: 1.9 toe/yr

Gian Paolo Beretta Università di Brescia, Italy

Average retail price

of 6,050 kWh of electricity in 2013

Europe: $1700 (0.28 $/kWh)

Mass.: $ 900 (0.15 $/kWh)

US average: $ 670 (0.11 $/kWh)


Outline

• HISTORICAL DATA

• past consumption of primary energy

• social and economic considerations

• OUTLOOK, A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO

• demographic growth

• energy needs

• mix of primary resources

• certain and presumed energy reserves

• CO2 release due to energy consumption

• WHAT CAUSES CLIMATIC CHANGES?

• global warming versus CO2 concentrations

• the role of solar activity


Gto

e/y

r =

bill

ion

s o

f to

e p

er

ye

ar

Global consumption and mix of primary energy in the last 150 years

2013

2%

10%

6%

21%

30%

4%

27%

coal

nuclear

oil

natural gas

hydro biomass

electric

solar wind geo


year: 1990 2000 2005 2013

7.2

4.9

3.8 4.1

1.4

3.2 1.1

1.3

0.4

0.4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

North America

Japan, Australia, N.Zeland

Europe OECD

Ex URSS Central-

East Europe

Latin America

Middel East

East Asia China Africa South Asia

Energy consumption (Gtoe/yr) 9.2 10.3 12.0 14.2 Pupulation (billions) 5.3 6.1 6.5 7.1 toe/yr per capita 1.74 1.73 1.85 1.99

Map: BP statistical review of energy 2007

Uneven spread of per-capita energy consumption


History of per-capita energy consumption

greek-roman age 0,15 Gtep/yr 0.3 billion 0,5 toe/yr

year 2000 10,3 Gtep/yr 6.2 billion 1,7 toe/yr

global consumption population average per capita

food for survival (3000 kcal/day) 0,11 toe/yr

after discovery of fire (500.000 years ago) 0,22 toe/yr

neolithic age, bronze age, iron age 0,45 toe/yr

greek-roman rural-artisan middle-age economy 0,50 toe/yr

1800 - England 0,55 toe/yr



industrialization


Correlations between social and economic development

and per-capita primary energy consumption

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

toe/yr per capita

40

50

60

70

80

0

4

8

12

16

0

2

4

6

8

ILLITERACY (% adults)

LIFE EXPECTANCY (years)

INFANT MORTALITY

(% of born alive)

Oman Libia

Iran

Saudi

Arabia

Gabon

Mongolia

Venezuela

Kuwait

Trinidad

and Tobago

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

toe/yr per capita

FERTILITY

(number of born alive per woman)


Pop

ula

tion

in

bil

lio

ns

Demographic growth outlook

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Africa South Asia China East Asia Middle East Latin America Ex URSS and Central-East Europe Europe OECD Japan, Australia, New Zeland North America


Role of scientific and technological research

Thermodynamic

efficiency of the

best-available

mature

technology for

primary energy

conversion to

work or

electricity

logistic

scale (linearity is

typical of a

learning

process)

0.01

0.1

1

10

1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

1%

5%

30%

80%

65%

50%

15%

10%

3%

II II

1- II

Savery

N

ewco

men

Watt

Corn

ish

Tri

ple

exp

an

sion

Pars

on

Ste

am

tu

rb.

Com

bin

ed c

ycl

e

Fu

el c

ell


Role of scientific and technological research

logistic

scale (linearity is

typical of a

learning

process)

0.01

0.1

1

10

1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

1%

5%

30%

80%

65%

50%

15%

10%

3%

II 1- II

Saver

y

New

com

en

Watt

Corn

ish

Tri

ple

exp

an

sion

Pars

on

Ste

am

tu

rb.

Com

bin

ed c

ycl

e

Fu

el c

ell

II

yr60with)1(1

d

dIIII

II

t

Thermodynamic

efficiency of the

best-available

mature

technology for

primary energy

conversion to

work or

electricity

II


per

-cap

ita

to

e/y

r

Net effect of :

+ industrialization of least developed countries

– social and technological improvements in “from well to

final use” efficiency

1.4 toe/yr 2100 world average

Current average standard

for industrialized

countries

3 toe/yr

Per-capita consumption (forecast)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100


1.7 toe/yr 2000 world average


Per-capita consumption x population = ...

Pop

ula

tion

in

bil

lio

ns

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

toe/

yr

per

ca

pit

a


… = global primary energy consumption (outlook)

2000 2000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

e/y

r

North America

China

South Asia

Africa


0.01

0.1

1

10

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

1%

5%

30%

80%

65%

50%

15%

10%

3%

2%

f 1 - f

f oil

natural gas

coal

nuclear

hydroelectric

wood+hay+biomass

solar+wind

50 years

System’s inertia: history and outlook of market shares



2000 2000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

e/y

r

North America

China

South Asia

Africa


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100


2000 2000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

e/y

r

North America

China

South Asia

Africa

coal


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100


2000 2000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Gto

e/y

r

North America

China

South Asia

Africa

coal

Cumulative till 2100

natural gas 360 Gtoe

oil 370 Gtoe

coal 490 Gtoe

nuclear 270 Gtoe Cumulative till 2000

natural gas 60 Gtoe

oli 110 Gtoe

coal 150 Gtoe

nuclear 10 Gtoe


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Petrolio Gas naturale Carbone Nucleare

Gte

p =

mil

iard

i d

i te

p

Consumi cumulativi al 2000

Previsione consumo 2000-2100

Riserve convenzionali accertate + presunte

Riserve non convenzionali accertate+presunte

Ulteriori riserve convenzionali probabili

Ulteriori riserve non convenzionali probabili

2000

3000

20000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


Gte

p =

mil

iard

i d

i te

p







100

1000

10000

100000








Cumulative consumption till 2000

Expected cumulative consumption 2001-2100

Proved and presumed conventional reserves

Presumed non-conventional reserves

Additional probable conventional reserves

Additional probable non-conventional reserves

Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear

Gto

e =

bil

lio

ns

of

toe


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100


coal


The combustion of produces*

1 toe of coal 4,0 ton of CO2

1 toe of oil 3,1 ton of CO2

1 toe of natural gas 2,3 ton of CO2

*these are rough estimates based on stoichiometry; accurate

estimates would require full life-cycle well-to-final-use analyses

CO2 immissions due to primary energy consumption

The waste-to-energy conversion of ~6 ton of solid urban waste

saves 1 toe of primary energy and, with respect to landfilling,

saves overall greenhouse gas emissions by:

Best technology, controlled landfill – 2,4 ton of CO2(eq)

Worse technology landfill (uncontrolled) – 17 ton of CO2(eq)

-

1 toe of urban waste (~6 ton) – 10 ton of CO2(eq)



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C


Artwork by J. Kapusta - from

S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

T: +0.6 °C

Global warming since 1850

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

G

lob

al te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge


270

290

310

330

350

370

390

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

CO2: +80 ppm G

ton

CO

2 =

bill

ion

s o

f to

n o

f C

O2

C

O2

co

nce

ntr

ation

in a

tmo

sp

he

re


270

290

310

330

350

370

390

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual global

average

temperature

anomaly in

w.r.to 1850-

1920 mean

Annual average

CO2 conc. at

Mauna Loa plus

Law Dome

DE08, DE08-2,

DSS IceCores


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

CO2: +80 ppm

T: +0.6 °C


Energy related anthropic immissions are relatively small

compared to the natural carbon exchanges and reserves of CO2 on Earth

GtonC

GtonC GtonC

8 GtonC/yr

GtonC/yr



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C

increase

160 Gton C

(55% of 300)



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C

increase

440 Gton C

(55% of 800)

increase

160 Gton C

(55% of 300)



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

580 ppm

=

overall CO2

1170 Gton C

increase

440 Gton C

(55% of 800)

increase

160 Gton C

(55% of 300)


270

290

310

330

350

370

390

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual global

average

temperature

anomaly in

w.r.to 1850-

1920 mean

Annual average

CO2 conc. at

Mauna Loa plus

Law Dome

DE08, DE08-2,

DSS IceCores


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

CO2: +80 ppm

T: +0.6 °C


Anthropic CO2 concentration Global

immissions warming

Question 1: are anthropic CO2 immissions

responsible for increasing the CO2 concentration

in the atmosphere?

Question 2: is the increase in CO2 concentration

in the atmosphere responsible for increasing the

mean global temperature?


Earth’s energy balance


•Solar radiation I0 = 1367 W/m2

•Albedo (about 32% gets reflected away) Ieff = 930 W/m2






4

4

)(4

41

effEarth

4

Earth

2

4

background

4

Earth

2

eff

2

IT

TR

TTRIR

428 KW/m1067.5




•Temperature with no greenhouse effect T0= 255 K (-18°C)


4

4

)(4

41

effEarth

4

Earth

2

4

background

4

Earth

2

eff

2

IT

TR

TTRIR

97.0

KW/m1067.5 428





•Would require a 1% increase in I0 to produce 0.6°C increase in T0


eff

eff

Earth

Earth

41

effEarth

4

Earth

2

4

background

4

Earth

2

eff

2

4

1

4

4

)(4

I

I

T

T

IT

TR

TTRIR

97.0

KW/m1067.5 428





•Would require a 1% increase in I0 to produce 0.6°C increase in T0 • Measured variations in I0 are less than 0.1%


0.1%



•Temperature with no greenhouse gases T0= 255 K (-18°C)

CO2 effect as a greenhouse gas




•With pre-industrial greenhouse gases (1750) T1= 288 K (+15°C) = T0 + 33°C

•Corresponds to an additional radiation I = I0 + F =1367 +144 W/m2

•F, called radiative Forcing, F = 144 W/m2 T1-T0 = 33°C

can be split between the main greenhouse gases

64% due to water vapor 92 W/m2 21°C

21% due to CO2 30 W/m2 7°C

15% due to CH4, N2O, other 22 W/m2 5°C










21% due to CO2 30 W/m2 7°C



http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/atmospheric-concentration-of-ch4-ppb-1/csi013_fig05_ch4_concentration.eps/image_original









21% due to CO2 30 W/m2 7°C


•IPCC formula

F-F0 = 5.35 ln(C/C0)

• F2000-F1850 = 5.35 ln(360/280) = 1.35 for CO2 during 20th century

• 1.35*33/144 = 0.3°C therefore CO2 accounts for only half of the 0.6°C increase

• F2100-F1850 = 5.35 ln(580/280) = 3.89 for CO2 during 20th+21th century

• 3.89*33/144 = 0.9°C is the estimate of T2100-T1850 due to CO2 immissions




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

580 ppm

=

overall CO2

1170 Gton C

increase

160 Gton C

(55% of 300)

ΔTCO2 = 0.3°C

ΔTactual = 0.6°C

increase

440 Gton C

(55% of 800)



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gto

n C

O2

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

O2

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

gas

oil

coal


1100 Gton CO2

300 Gton C

Gto

n C

= b

illio

ns o

f to

n o

f C

arb

on

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


4100 Gton CO2

1100 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

360 ppm

=

overall CO2

730 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

280 ppm

=

overall CO2

570 Gton C

atmospheric

CO2 concentration

580 ppm

=

overall CO2

1170 Gton C

increase

160 Gton C

(55% of 300)

ΔTCO2 = 0.3°C

ΔTactual = 0.6°C

increase

440 Gton C

(55% of 800)

ΔTCO2 = 0.9°C

ΔTactual = 1.8°C??


270

290

310

330

350

370

390

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual global

average

temperature

anomaly in

w.r.to 1850-

1920 mean

Annual average

CO2 conc. at

Mauna Loa plus

Law Dome

DE08, DE08-2,

DSS IceCores


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

CO2: +80 ppm

T: +0.6 °C


180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0100200300400

Historical

Temperature from

Vostok Ice Core

Historical CO2

Record from Vostok

Ice Core


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-10

-7.5

-5

-2.5

0

2.5

5

0100200300400

Thousands of years before present

Current levels

of

concentration

appear to have

never been

reached in the

Earth’s history


270

290

310

330

350

370

390

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual global

average

temperature

anomaly in

w.r.to 1850-

1920 mean

Annual average

CO2 conc. at

Mauna Loa plus

Law Dome

DE08, DE08-2,

DSS IceCores


S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

CO2: +80 ppm

T: +0.6 °C

However…

correlation

appears weaker

in the last two

decades


Correlation appears weaker in last two decades


GtonC

El Niño Anthropic immissions are

steady,

fine variations in concentration

is not as regular.

Very much affected by the

natural periodic phenomenon

known as El Niño (involves

ocean-atmosphere interactions)

Irregular fine variations in CO2 concentration



S. Brand, Nature 450, 797 (2007)

CO2

T

At 240000 before present, temperature increase is

before CO2 increase by a 800 years.

Long-time historical correlation is good but

with CO2 lagging behind T, not viceversa


Figure taken from http://www.climate4you.com/. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric

temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2,

as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2.

The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to

global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature.

The phase relation between atmospheric

carbon dioxide and global temperature

(last 50 years)


Figure taken from http://www.climate4you.com/. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric

temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2,

as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2.

The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global

sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere

temperature.

The phase relation between atmospheric

carbon dioxide and global temperature

(last 20 years)


Question 1: are anthropic CO2 immissions

responsible for increasing the CO2 concentration

in the atmosphere?

Answer: maybe, but it is not certain, and some

evidence does not confirm it. •yearly immissions (8 Gton C/yr) are 4% of natural exchanges

•21st century overall immissions account for 2% of the total Earth’s inventory

•regular immissions versus irregular changes (El Nino)

•equal increase in North and South emisphere


immissions warming


Question 2: is the increase in CO2 concentration

in the atmosphere responsible for increasing the

mean global temperature?

Answer: there are several doubts, and some

experimental evidence does not confirm it. •no warming over last 20 years vs continued increase in concentration

•measured increases in CO2 seem to lag behind measured increases in T, not viceversa

•large changes on a long time scale of 100000 years lag by about 800 years

•small changes on a short time scale of 20-50 years lag by about 9-12 months


immissions warming


Solar

activity

Climatic

changes

Cosmic

rays

Question 3: could climatic changes

be caused by solar activity?


Some preliminary observations:

•during the last few decades also other planets (Mars, Jupiter,

Neptune and Pluto) and their satellites have shown clear signs of

warming

•Mars +0.65°C in the last 30 years

•data seem well correlated with Earth’s data

•measured variations in solar irradiance (0.1%) cannot explain

such large changes

•changes have been attributed to albedo variations


Caused by cyclic magnetic phenomena in

the photosphere, it increases brightness

only of order 0.1%, but…

Solar activity: sunspots, flaring, and solar wind



Caused by cyclic magnetic phenomena in

the photosphere, it increases brightness

only of order 0.1%, but it produces flares

and solar wind (charged particles reaching

the Earth and the other Planets).


Solar wind, deflected by the Earth’s

magnetic field, shields it from cosmic rays.








Cosmic rays favor cloud

formation by providing

nucleation sites for water

vapor condenstation






Cosmic rays favor cloud

formation by providing

nucleation sites for water

vapor condenstation.

Clouds albedo


more sunspots → more solar activity →

more solar wind → fewer cosmic rays →(?)

fewer clouds → smaller albedo → more

effective solar heating → global warming.



Question 3: could climatic changes

be caused by solar activity?

Answer: probably: some evidence does suggest

this to be the case. •correlation between cloud cover and earth’s albedo

•correlation between cloud cover and cosmic rays

•correlation between cosmic rays and solar activity as measured by sunspots

•correlation between current global cooling and weak sunspot cycle

Solar

activity

Climatic

changes

Cosmic rays


T and

CO2 concentrations are

INTEGRATED effects of

several phenomena

Solar activity and

CO2 immissions are just

two INSTANTANEOUS

forcing effects

Complex modeling (requiring assumptions on

many many factors)


Sustainable development is tricky!

False hopes on single and simple solutions,

are fed on bad information and cheap futurology.

They cause waste of resources.

Examples:

• the ‘mirage’ of a hydrogen economy

• market distortions due to impulsive energy policies


When Science goes public it requires

a lot of equilibrium!


Climate change is not felt as the most important problem for the future of human kind. There are other more serious priorities (Copenhagen Consensus 2012):

• - malnutrition in poor countries

• - alphabetization

• - deseases (malaria, tuberculosis, AIDS in particular)

• - availability of vaccins (Ebola?)

Limiting the effects of climate change is only listed as the 6° position (not cited as global warming)

It is clear that climate changes, among the many problems that afflict human kind, is still felt as a minor problem.

Has a serious alert been called for climatic changes?


• The primary objective should be to get prepared to

control and limit the predictable damages that will

be caused by climate change, whether it be of

anthropic or natural origin.

• Do whatever is within certain anthropic reach to

contain, control, or reduce causes of global

warming

• The objective cannot be reduced to just that of

reducing anthropic CO2 immissions, because there

is no certainty that they are the only phenomenon

responsible for the increase in Tgm during the last

quarter of the last century.

What should we do?


CONCLUSIONS?

Do your own thinking!

Don’t jump to conclusions!

Don’t be afraid of changing your mind!

Don’t buy it just because everybody buys it!

Do your research and be critical!


E-mail: [email protected]

for many updated graphs and data visit www.climate4you.com

Thank you for your attention

and, again, for the kind invitation!

Artwork freely adapted from masterpieces by Jean Michel Folon http://www.folon-art.com/

a quantitative outlook at the future of energy · 2014. 10. 24. · © 2014, gian paolo beretta,...

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