a october 18th,2007 roberto rodrigues agroenergy brazil’s role in this new agricultural paradigm
TRANSCRIPT
a
October 18th,2007
Roberto Rodrigues
AGROENERGYBrazil’s role in this new agricultural
paradigm
a
October 18th,2007
Roberto Rodrigues
AGROENERGYBrazil’s role in this new agricultural
paradigmSceneries of the world agriculture
Brazilian ethanol experiences
The market of biofuels
Conclusion
aSceneries of the world
agriculture
Energy EducationWater DemocracyFood PopulationEnvironment DiseasePoverty Terrorism and war
AGRICULTURE
Source: Alan MacDiarmid, em São Carlos, SP, abril de 2005
The ten bigger problems for the humanity in the next 50 years
1. Changes in the demands: flavor, quality, traceability, health, environment, organics
2. Demographic tendencies
1990 2000 2025
World population (billion) 5,20 6,20 8,30
Food demand (billion t) 1,97 2,45 3,97
Yields 2,50 2,90 4,50
Source:Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol 27, no03, Março 2007
1960 to 1990
• Reduction of the hunger in 20%
• Increase of the food production in 1000%
• Increase of the per capita consumption in 25% (bigger growth in Asia)
Main tendencies
3. Income• Increase of the world economy for the next
10 years: 3% • Developed countries: 2,4%• Developing countries: 4,6%
4. Technology• Environment: sustentability• Biotechnology• Nanotechnology
Main tendencies
20th Century: Food security was strategicHunger in Europe PAC 34% of GAPAgriculture answered to the challenge
21th Century: Energy security is strategic in the chapter of fuels. Space for the agroenergy.
Contributions of the Agribusiness
Current production
(2005)
Estimated demand (2025)
Necessary additional production
Increase of the production (%)
Cereal 2.219,40 3.140,40 921,00 41,5
Oil seeds 595,01 750,97 155,96 26,2
Perennials 242,81 321,99 70,18 28,9
Annual 352,20 437,98 85,78 24,4
Meat1 264,70 376,49 111,79 42,2
Poultry 80,00 113,70 33,76 42,2
Hog 103,40 146,80 43,60 42,2
Bovine 63,50 90,40 26,30 41,4
Coffee 7,72 9,40 1,68 21,8
Fiber 28,50 36,37 7,87 27,6
Wood 3.401,90 4.148,40 746,50 21,9
1All of the consumed meats Source: FAO Elaboration: AGE - MAPA
World: Offer and estimated demand for food
Source: Nakícenovic, Grübler e MaConald, 1998
Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCES
21th Century: the beginning of a new age
Why biofuels?
aBrazilian ethanol experiences
Brazilian ethanol experiences
1532: Martim Afonso de Sousa introduces sugar cane in Brazil
1925: First ethanol powered vehicle tested in Brazil
1979: First commercial ethanol moved vehicle in Brazil2003: Flex fuel motors are launched
1973Crisis of the
petroleum and low prices of the sugar
1973Crisis of the
petroleum and low prices of the sugar
1975PROÁLCOOL
Compulsory mix And subsidy
1975PROÁLCOOL
Compulsory mix And subsidy
Brazilian ethanol experiences
Source: Datagro
Low prices of the petroleum. Government interrupts support. High price of the sugar.
Reduction in the E100 sales.
Low prices of the petroleum. Government interrupts support. High price of the sugar.
Reduction in the E100 sales.
1978-1979 PROÁLCOOLFiscal incentives and exemptions of taxes for
the ethanol and vehicles (E100) production. All the gas stations should sell ethanol.
Government guarantees price (65% of the gasoline).
1978-1979 PROÁLCOOLFiscal incentives and exemptions of taxes for
the ethanol and vehicles (E100) production. All the gas stations should sell ethanol.
Government guarantees price (65% of the gasoline).
2003
FLEX FUEL
2003
FLEX FUEL
Sugar cane: evolution of the productivity
Source: MAPA
Area harvested(Million ha)
Area harvested(Million ha)
Production of sugar cane
(Million ton)
Production of sugar cane
(Million ton)
Preserved areaPreserved area
Vehicles production by fuel type
Source: ANFAVEA
Sales of flex fuel vehicles in Brazil2003: 48.000 units 2005: 865.000 units
2004: 330.00 units 2006: 1.447.000 units
Sales of flex fuel vehicles in Brazil2003: 48.000 units 2005: 865.000 units
2004: 330.00 units 2006: 1.447.000 units
Gasoline: 25% anhydrous ethanol blend
Source: MME/BEN (2006)
Brazil: share of energy
Renewable sources 44,5 %
Brazil World
Renewable
No renewable
Elaboration: Revista VEJA, edição 03/03/2004 Source: IBGE e CONAB; Adaptação: MAPA
Territorial distribution – Estimates(milhões de ha)
Amazon Rain Forest 345
Breeding Pastures 220
Protected areas 55
Annual crops 47
Permanent Crops 15
Cities, towns, lakes 20
Cultivated florests 5
Sub-total 707
Other uses 38
Unexploited areas still available for agriculture
106
TOTAL 851
Production with sustainability
Excluded the Amazon Region, Pantanal and declivity superior to 12%Source: UNICAMP
Soil and climate adapted to the sugar cane production without irrigation
aThe biofuels market
• Replace the dependence: trust
• Compulsory mix
• More countries producing
Organization of the market
Tonnes oil equivalent
Equator
Tropic of Capricorn
Tropic of Cancer
Consumption per capita 2006
Souce: BPStatistical Review of World Energy
Self-sufficiency in the agriculture
Source: F.O.Licht
• Replace the dependence: trust
• Compulsory mix
• More countries producing
• Commoditization: parameters and certification
• Partnerships: knowledge and technology
• Protectionism
Organization of the market
* average 2002-2003 Source: OCDE
Subsidies in the international market
• Replace the dependence: trust
• Compulsory mix
• More countries producing
• Commoditization: parameters and certification
• Partnerships : knowledge and technology
• Protectionism
• Potential of the market
Organization of the market
Source: EIA/DOE, Comissão Européia; Copersucar
Potential of the ethanol market
• Replace the dependence: trust
• Compulsory mix
• More countries producing
• Commoditization : parameters and certification
• Partnerships: knowledge and technology
• Protectionism
• Potential of the market
• Economic viability
The construction of the market
The economic viability of biofuels
Source: Expert interviews; FAPRI, United States; FAO; McKinsey analysis
Base case
Crude oil price (US$ per barrel)
Bio
fuel
’s p
ote
nti
al s
har
e in
to
tal
tran
spo
rtat
ion
fu
els
(%)
Feedstock availability limits
further growth
aConclusion
A new civilization
