a novice guide to sports betting, 85pp

5/22/2018 A Novice Guide to Sports Betting, 85pp

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Sharp InputC A N Y O U S U S T A I N M O R E T H A N A 5 3 % A V E R A G E ?

Sharp Input LLC. California, U.S.A. [email protected]


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Sharp Input

Chula Vista, California 91913-1818

Sharp Input- Can You Sustain More Than A 53% Average?A Sharp Input LLC Book: May 2011.Copyright Greg Mitchell, 2011. All Rights Reserved

No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, byphotocopying or by any electronic or mechanical means,

Including information storage or retrieval systems, withoutpermission in writing from both the copyright owner and thepublisher of this book.

ISBN xxx-x-xxxxxx-xx-x

Library of Congress Catalog Number: xxxxxxxxxx

First Printing: May 2011Printed by Mitchell Printing CompanySan Diego, California 91913-1818


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This Book Is Dedicated To The Novice Player Needing A WayTo Make Additional Income Without Getting Another Job.


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Preface

This is a book about Sports betting. Grinding out a profit is theway its done. You have to be able to win more than 53% ofyour picks or you stand the chance of losing! It all depends onyour bet sizethat you win with or lose with.

I will teach you how to control your bet size utilizing moneymanagementso you will not go bust. Remember what you bet

after a win and what you bet after a loss is also a key to being aconsistent winner.


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Contents

SHARP INPUT WITH SOME BASIC MONEYMANAGEMENT SKILLS 8

WIN GOAL 8BANKROLL SIZE 9BET SIZE 9CALCULATING NET RETURNS 11SPORTS BOOKS 13HOW DO SPORTS BOOKS MAKE MONEY 13WHAT WIN RATE DO I NEED TO MAKE A PROFIT? 14WHAT IS THE HIGHEST SUSTAINABLE WIN RATE? 14TOUTS FOR PICKS? 14

SHARP BETTORS DO THEIR HOMEWORK 15DETAILED INFORMATION ON BETTING SPORTS? 17SEARCH FOR VALUE BETS 18SCARED MONEY 19LOSS LIMITS 19MONEY MANAGEMENT 19KELLY CRITERION AND THE KELLY CALCULATOR 21

TYPES OF BETS 23

ARRANGING YOUR BETS TO MINIMIZE LOSSES 27TEASERS 28HEAVY LAYS 29MIDDLES 30FLAT BETS 30HEDGING BETS 30

SHORT BANKROLLS 31

PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO LINE MOVEMENTS 33LINE SHOPPING 34ARBITRAGE 35SCALPING 35SCALPS ARE FREE MONEY 36SHARP LINES 36

ARCHIVED LINES FOR DATA MINING 36AFTER A BET THE LINE IMPROVES 36ROGUE OR SOFT LINES 37


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SHARP HANDICAPPING 38INTANGIBLE EVENTS 38HOME DOGS 39OVERLAYS OF POINTS 39INJURIES 40WEATHER 40COACH PHILOSOPHY 40HANDICAPPING BASKETBALL 40NBA HOME DOGS 44HANDICAPPING BASEBALL 47BASEBALL RUN LINES 47BASEBALL PARLAYS AND ROUND ROBINS 48

BASEBALL OVER AND UNDER 48HANDICAPPING FOOTBALL 49THE LINE AND GETTING POINTS 53OVERLAY AND UNDERLAY 54YOUR EDGE IN THE NFL 54POWER VERSUS DOG 55REALITY OF AN ESTABLISHED LINE 57LIVE DOGS 58BETTING ON FAVORITES 59

HOME EDGE 61NHL LINES 61HANDICAPPING HOCKEY 62POWER RATINGS 64HANDICAPPING INFORMATION? 66

BONUSES, PUBLIC OPINION & PROPS 67CLEARING BONUSES 67

FADING THE PUBLIC 68PUBLIC OPINION 68SOFT PROP BETS 69

MORE SHARP INPUT 72BETTING EXCHANGES 72BEATING THE CLOSING LINE 73KEEP SHARP RECORDS 74

LIVE BETTING 75NHL LIVE BETTING 76HALFTIME BETS 76BUYING POINTS 76FUTURE BETS 76


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UNJUSTIFIED FAVORITES 77

WORDS FROM THE AUTHOR 78APPENDIX 79

GLOSSARY 81BIBLIOGRAPHY 84


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Sharp Input With Some Basic MoneyManagement Skills

Are You Ready To Gamble? | For The

New Sports Bettor Looking For Extra

Income.

f you don't like to grind out small winnings tobuild your bankroll, then you havent any needto take on sports betting. With that said, your

starting bankroll could be as little as $200 dollars tohave a fair shot. Can you afford to lose it? Is losing

your entire bankroll going to make you sick? If so,you shouldn't be betting it. Now if you can handle aloss, you should be able to make a part-time income atsports betting.

Win Goal

Establish a win goal that can be reasonably attained,such as 2% of your starting bankroll. You can increaseyour goal as your bankroll increases, so dont worryabout how small your win goal is at the beginning.

Chapter

1

I


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Bankroll Size

Again how much can you stomach to lose? I know itsa faster way to buy that new High Definition TV

youve been wanting, but lets keep it real; losing ispart of the equation. Nobody can afford to lose, butyou have to pay to play.

Bet Size

A commonly accepted guideline is 1-2% of your

bankroll if youre going to bet long-term. A bet sizeisgenerally referred to as a unit. Why 1-2%? A unit sizegreater than 2% dramatically increases your risk ofruin, risk of going broke. If you dont care about goingbroke, use whatever size units you're comfortablewith. If your goal is to last many betting seasons

without replenishing your bankroll then you shouldwager only 1-2% as previously stated.

Keep in mind that 4-5% gives you a good chance atgoing broke over the long term, so only use thispercentage if you can replenish your bankroll.

Increase your bet size as you win and decrease yourbet size as you lose. There are two reasons toincreasing your bet size:

1. If the bet is greater than -110 such as -130 thenyou will have to lay more money to win your

daily goal.


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2. Some bets you will have the right amount ofinformation available to give you the reason tomake a bigger bet.

Bet in Units:

Good Bet 1 Unit - $5

Solid Bet 2 Units - $10

Great Bet 3 Units - $15

Bet 2 or 3 units as you have confidence in a particulargame. Winning at these bigger bets gets you ahead inyour bankroll, but if you lose then your bankrollshrinks faster than if you bet flat.

Or another way is to keep your units small. If youhave $100 to wager, bet $1 per game. Don't go to $2 agame until you have $200. Most people deposit $200and wager $25 or $50 a game and go busto in a coupleweeks. Start small, be smart, and dont go broke.

You have to know the difference between a good bet

and a bet you have more confidence in. In knowingthis you need to change the amount of your bets inorder to maximize your profits. When you wager amax bet (3 units) it should be a bet where you havemost confidence in.

Think long term. Keeping in mind your goal is tomake a profit over a season. Cash out on a regularbasis, not keeping your entire bankroll in the sportsbooks. We will start you out having an edge of 5% or


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55% win probability and your win goal will be 2% ofyour total bankroll. You can make a lot of bets at thesame time without running out of cash.

For instance, $200 bankroll with 5% edge your wingoal should be $4. (200 X 2%) = 4. Use the KellyCalculatorto calculate your bet size every day locatedat the SBRwebsite or use the following method:

Allocate your bankroll for the week; decide on acertain amount to bet each night, starting with equalamounts per day, based on your weeks bankroll. Ifyou have $700, break it down to $100 a night. If youwin some money, you can add half of the profits toyour next day's wagers. If you lose youre done forthe day.

Calculating Net Returns

Lets say the Utah jazz are the favorite at -350 withthe Denver Nuggets the underdog at +310. Tocalculate net returns with Utah, convert the -350 into3.50. If you want to wager $1,000 you take 1,000

divided by 3.50(odds), which equals 285.71. If youwin, this is your profit. However if you wagered$1,000 on the Denver Nuggets, convert +310 into3.10 and multiply 1,000 by 3.1(odds) and you profit is$3,100. Some odds are displayed as fractions. Forexample, 3/2 odds, 3 divided by 2 is 1.5. Therefore

1.5 is +150 odds. Look at the following figures on thenext page. These are the calculators that are on theSBRforum website.


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Figure 1 Odds Converter

Figure 2 Money Line Converter

Figure 3 Parlay Calculator


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Sports Books

Check out Sportsbookreview.com for full referencesand reviews on all the sports books out there. Sports

Book Review has a clear idea of which books allowUS players.

If you're in the US and serious, you should establishaccounts in all of the SBRrecommended list. If you'reoutside the US, the general consensus is that

PinnacleSports.com is one of the best options to addto that list. Also use an exchange likeBetfairto obtainbetter prices for the games you choose althoughgames are limited.

How do Sports Books make Money?

Lets take a standard wager, where you must lay -110(11 to 10) odds. Most point spread wagers areapproximately a 50/50 proposition, something akin toflipping a coin. So you are laying11 to 10 on a coinflip, while the book is taking11 to 10 on a coin flip.Over time, the book wins. Also, the book has a marginfor error established in the lines.

For you to win, you must overcome this inherentadvantage by finding bets that are not true 50/50propositions through handicapping and line shopping.

Note:There are lots of other types of wagers but the

idea is the same the sports book takes a fee, calledvigorish, by making you lay odds that are greater thanthe true odds of the wager. You have to pay to play!


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What Win Rate do I Need in Order to Make a

Profit?

This depends on the odds you are laying or taking. At

the standard vigorish -110 you need to win 110 / (110+ 100) = 52.4% of your bets to break even. At anyother price, you can use the same method to calculatethe necessary win rate. Just remember if you lose yourbankroll betting sports, it will be because you do notget more than 52.4% winners or 53%.

Keep in mind that you can sometimes get by with asmaller win rate if you are collecting bonuses from thesports books.

What is the Highest sustainable Win Rate?

Generally, somewhere in the 55%-60% range isconsidered the maximum that is sustainable. However,if you start approaching the higher end of that range,you are probably passing up some +EV wagers.

EV means expected value, the mathematicaldescription of the edge that you have. Expressed interms of how much you are likely to win on average ifthe bet could be made over and over again.

Touts for Picks?

Most of the sites advertising for-pay pickssignificantly exaggerate their records and very few are

actually worth paying for. Go to vegasinsiders.comtocheck out the handicapper records in the drop-downmenu. I should also note that dont play their picks


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blindly. If you absolutely hate one of their picks, thendont play it, and this might help increase yourwinning percentage.

Really it doesn't make any sense. If you had theability to make strong, reliable picks you're not goingto sell them. You're going to grow your bankrollsignificantly and exploit the edges yourself, not sellthem to others.

On the other hand, if you're a winning handicapper,why not place your bets, and then sell them to makemore money? Even if you're the best sports bettor inthe world, there is still risk involved, as it's prettycommon knowledge there's no such thing as a truelock. But the money you make from selling your picksis a lock.

You want my advice? If you are serious aboutwinning money betting sports, learn how to become awinning handicapper yourself, instead of relying on aservice. If you are betting sports as a purely

recreational activity, don't have a problem with losingyour bankroll, and don't want to put in the time andeffort to properly handicap, then I would think its fineto use a reputable service.

Sharp Bettors do their Homework

Sharps are willing to shop for the best number; theyalso have some predictions as to the overall line

movement for the bet and try to time their bets to


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obtain the best number. Sharps actively try to find and

bet middles, scalps, +EV promotions and bonuses

whenever possible. A large part of this again depends

on their predictions of line movement. Also any +EVstraight bet combinations whenever they can be found

such as parlays and teasers.

Sharps handicap the sport without the aid of the

seeing the lines already in place, they constantly usetools such as data mining, insider knowledge,

statistics and winning subsets to help them improve

their handicapping. They also present value after the

game is over to see how accurate their original cap

was and how they can further improve the process.

This is then factored into their next handicap with the

most recent results more heavily weighted.

When sharps have active discussions with other

sharps whom they respect to be sharp (or reading their

books or posts), they're more interested in discussingand learning their winning methods than just to obtain

their picks.

They consistently show that they can beat the average

closing line. Sharps have a bankroll set aside forgambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long

term records of all their bets. They have won


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consistently over the long term at the sports that

they're presently betting, and they have cut back or

ceased altogether betting on the sports that they have

not consistently demonstrated a profit in. They usesome derivative form of Kelly Criterionto help them

size their bets according to the estimated edge based

on both their current calculations and previous

records.

Detailed Information on Betting Sports?

Generally, Sports Betting is about edges in marketinformation, much like the stock market. For the mostpart, successful sports bettors don't have as much of amotivation as for example poker players to share

techniques on how to be successful.

As an example, if a sports bettor were to tell everylittle detail of how they bet sports, someone couldsimply beat that person to the lines they want andwould negatively affect the success of the persongiving out the detailed information. In other words,giving out detailed information on how to bet sports isa significantly EV proposition for those who do itwell.

Here is the reason you don't see as much good stuff onsports as you do poker. In poker, if someone tells

5,000 people how to play a hand, it really doesn'taffect their own poker games that much, if at all. Onthe other hand, if for example I were to tell which


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props I bet, someone else could easily beat me to thelines and lay out a max bet and the line moves againstme. So it is very -EV for sports bettors to tell intricate

details of how they do things. Generalities are fine ofcourse, but specifics hurt.

Search for Value Bets

This is the cornerstone of successful sports betting.You must select bets that have value in the line. Thisis what separates long term winners from losers. Themore sports books you're signed up at, the better thepossibilities are that you will find this value.

Short term fluctuations are only masked by a longterm opportunity. If you can find a line at one certainshop that is off, by half a point, or by 15 cents of

juice, a lot of times that number gives you an edgeagainst the 2.5-5% fee the house always charges.

You have to acquire enough knowledge so that youunderstand a particular sport, or subsection thereof, acertain league, conference, team, or even a coach or

player better than the public. In order to do this youmust be a record keeper. Second, you must have thediscipline to act only when you have an advantage andcan come out ahead based on that knowledge andunderstanding. However, this is not an overnightprocess, but entails a lengthy apprenticeship that is

performed mostly by one self, making the taskparticularly difficult. But it can be done. Gambling isa tremendously rough road losing all the time.Sometimes you will bet above 52.4% and you will


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still be losing and then there's days where you will bebetting below 52.4% and you will have a profit.

It all starts with your expectation of winning based onthe amount you bring to the table. It is knowledge ofthe matchups and present trends of the teams in thegame you intend to bet on. The things I want to makeyou aware of will be geared to cutting your losses, sofind those value bets!

Scared MoneyScared money is betting without a sure knowledge ofthe sport or you bet too much money. Now yourescared of losing. If youre scared of losing no matterwhat size your bankroll is, stop betting and don't betagain. Get a part time job somewhere.

Loss Limits

The loss limit in sports betting is built into the factthat you want to bet only up to the amount you havereadily at hand. If you have $200 available, then thatis the amount you spread over the number of days you

will wager. Learn how to reduce your bets after a win.The trick is to fluctuate your bet. Another way is touse a teaser bet which allows you to add points to ateam for a higher price.

Money Management

Say you bet on an NFL game and you wagered $110to win $100. Well you won congratulations! Now youdecide to bet on another game, but this time you make


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a wager with only a portion of your profit say 50%.You bet $55 to win $50. Whether you win or lose thesecond game, a profit is guaranteed. As you win, you

increase your next bet, bet a certain percentage ofyour winnings and take the rest as profit. The idea isyou need to pay yourself after every win and pocketsome kind of percentage of your winnings. Manypeople can pick more than 53% of their gamescorrectly and be in the red. They dont pay themselvesand risk everything on the next bet and lose when theycould have had a small profit for the day. Try not torecoup previous losses on subsequent games, this canput you further in the hole.

The tremendous feeling you get when you win, shouldforce you to follow this system. There is nothing

worse than to see a guy win four games in a row andbe out of all of his money.

Money management is not easy, and even when youfollow it. There will be days when you will break therules. Money-management sometimes restricts youfrom the big kill. How little you lose, that's important.

The amount you bet is your choice and doesn't matterif you play aggressive or conservative, what concernsme is that you accept small returns after winning agame. Sure, it's a grind, but this method is verypowerful. Understand what I am telling you is how tobet, not who to bet. Do I discourage you from playing

aggressive? No, but the aggressive moves should notbe the whole days bets. As you continue to win, thenincrease your bets, but at least keep putting somethingaside as a guaranteed profit. Follow the advice of one


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who knows how to lose it because I have done somuch of it. Nothing beats winning. The pros knowthat and control their bets until a hot streak occurs.

The way of a gambler is the constant walking on edgewith winning and losing streaks by his side.

Kelly Criterion and the Kelly Calculator

The Kelly Criterion is a type of money management.A formula used to determine the optimal size of aseries of bets. In most gambling scenarios, and someinvesting scenarios under some simplifyingassumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than anyessentially different strategy in the long run.

It was described by J. L. Kelly, Jr. in a 1956 issue ofthe Bell System Technical Journal. Edward O. Thorpdemonstrated the practical use of the formula in a1961 address to the American Mathematical Societyand later in his books Beat the Dealer for gamblingand Beat the Market with Sheen Kassouf, forinvesting.

Although the Kelly strategy's promise of doing betterthan any other strategy seems compelling, someeconomists have argued strenuously against it, mainlybecause an individual's specific investing constraintsoverride the desire for optimal growth rate. Theconventional alternative is utility theory which says

bets should be sized to maximize the expected utilityof the outcome. (To an individual with logarithmic


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utility, the Kellybet maximizes utility, so there is noconflict.)

For those who want to reduce their risk even more usefractional Kelly. It protects against volatility anderrors in your edge calculations. Just remember, betsmall when you lose. Betting small when you losecuts your losses down until you can start being awinner again.

Figure 4 Kelly Calculator


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Types Of BetsThe Know-How |Getting rid of the

Ignorant Mind.

he most common way to bet sports is againstthe spread. The spread is the number of pointsthat must be added to or subtracted from a

teams final score. This enables you to win your betwith a little bit of help by paying less juice and ifyoure taking the dog, getting points. The mostcommon terms for betting sports are -110 whichmeans risking $110 in an attempt to win $100.

When someone says he is betting the Broncos hecould mean is he is betting on the Broncos to coverthe spread. If the Broncos are favored by four pointsthen it means to say, Broncos -4. If the Broncos winby fewer than four points or lose the game outright,

then a bet on Broncos -4 is a loser. Because they didnot cover the spread. If a game falls right on thespread it is a push, thus you get your money back.

Chapter

2

T


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Spreads on favorites are negative numbers. Spreadson dogs are positive numbers. If you bet on a dogagainst the spread you win your bet if your team wins

the game and you will also win your bet if your teamloses the game but by less than the amount of thespread.

The money linesare bets for which you will be bettingon a team straight up to win with no points given toeither team. And then you have total bets. On thesebets you bet either over or under a specified number.Play aMoney linebet in games where you can stringthem out into a parlay.

In baseball you have the run line. Look at figure 9 andsee Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays. If you bet

Toronto you would be giving away 1.5 runs at a +150.So you would need Toronto to win by more than 2runs to make a profit. As you can see they are thefavorites. And you can also see who won, the dog.Thats Sports betting!

As for Hockey, the puck line, youre giving awaygoals instead of runs.


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Figure 5 NBA Spreads

Figure 6 NBA Money lines

Figure 7 NBA Totals


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Figure 8 NHL Puck Lines

Figure 9 MLB Run Lines


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Arranging Your Bets To Minimize LossesStyle of Betting

time to consider betting a parlay is when youcan take advantage of an obvious situation. Agood example is cold-snowy weather on the

football field in Green Bay at game time and thePackers are a strong team to win against a weakeropponent. So what do you do, you ask, well I wouldtake the under bet on the totaland parlay it with aGreen Bay Packer money line bet. There is your 2-team parlay that makes plenty of sense.

Generally speaking, it means combining twooutcomes which are more likely to occur together. Insports betting, the basic idea applies often to NCAAFootball. Here is another example, in a game with alarge underdog and a relatively low total over/under,

if you think the under is a good bet, there is value inparlaying it with a huge underdog. A parlay nearlydoubles your payout on the under bet, giving it a

Chapter

3A


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higher EV. At least, that's the general theory of theparlay.

Teasers

There is a very specific teaser that is generallyregarded as +EV, which Stanford Wong details inSharp Sports Betting. Wong states that, using onlyteams that, when teased, will pick up both the threeand the seven. If you consider teasing teams that willpick up all of the threes and sevens, and given sixmore additional points you will be looking atfavoritesof -7.5 to -8.5 and dogsof +1.5 to +2.5. You have awager with a statistically positive expectation. Thatmeans in the long term a winning result.

For example, teasing from -8 to -2 would cross keynumbers at -7, -4 and -3. Likewise teasing +2.5 to+8.5 would result in crossing +3, +4, and +7.

Catching the seven or three isn't gaining theprobability of a win when the game lands on thosekey numbers, only a push. You want to move across

them.

This is why picking a winner is so tough. This is alsowhy teasers give an extra edge, because they give youmore points. You can't handicap human beings andexpect them to perform exactly the way you figure

they should, based on a handful of statistical numbers.You will find instances where a certain team hasbetter athletes and should win the game. But the point


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spread, a fumble, a lucky or unlucky bounce, officialsbad call, dropped passes, interceptions, blockopponents, and a number of other unforeseen things

that cannot be handicapped may cause you to lose thegame.

You may have figured the game correctly, but thevolatility of human error created a bunch of miscues.So zero in on getting points, along with the use of

power versus dog theory.

Heavy Lays

Dont be afraid to bet bridge jumpers, or heavy lays.These are bets where you lay big odds, like -400, -1000, etc. A heavy lay for example, is when you haveto pay $400 to win $100 to play the favorite. The linemaker establishes a line with a high price, because hefigures the dog team is overmatched, and he knew ifhe made it less the books would be flooded withmoney on the dog side. The sports books are inbusiness to make money, not lose it and go broke.

Consequently you will often find some real valueslaying large odds. Much depends on personalcircumstances though and tolerance for rate of return.Sometimes limits dictate huge +EV lines that need tobe hedged out. Most people don't have the bankroll toafford a full $500 bet on a 100-1 shot when the trueline is 50-1. By hedging a portion they allowthemselves to get at the money quicker despite losingsome of the expected return in an ideal situation.


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Middles

A middlein a football game is, lets say, Florida State-7 vs. Boston College. I search at another sports book

and see Florida State -10 vs. Boston College. So I takea line of +10 Boston College at that second sportsbook for a 2 point middle.

So if Florida State won by 8, 9 points I would winboth sides. If Florida State won by 10 or more points I

would win the Florida State wager and push, meaningtie, with the Boston College wager.

Finding these middles will be difficult nowadays, butalways look to grab 3, 4, 5 point middles. You canalso bring about middles with the use of teasers, theprofit is cut down but you have extra points on yourside.

The way I see it is as long as you end up with moremoney at the end of the day then you started with,youre a winner.

Flat BetsFlat bettingis a decision to bet the same amount handafter hand.

Hedging Bets

The time zonefactor is used. So I have a chance of

hedging off the last game in a teaser or a parlay toensure a no lose situation. This cuts into my potentialprofits, but any gain is good. The idea is to spread out


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enough time between each game in your parlay orteaser. This way you will have enough time to make abet on the opposing team of that particular game.

Example:1. Denver Broncos versus San Diego Chargers at

1pm EST.

2. Atlanta Falcons versus Carolina Panthers at4pm EST.

You bet on the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons ina 2 team parlay. If you win the 1pm game taking theBroncos then you can hedge betting an amount tocover your original bet or a certain percentage thereof,on the Carolina Panthers in the final game at 4pm.Carolina Panthers is the opposite team of the Falcons.

All I'm asking you to do is bet smart, bet small untilyou get ahead, except small returns, hedge bets to cutlosses, and get in the habit of winning consistently.

There are many examples of ways to hedge your betsin sports. Lets say you bet on Dallas Mavericks tobeat New Orleans Hornets at 2 points. At halftime

they have a 7 point lead. The sports book put out aline of Hornets a point for the 2ndhalf. You canthen put a wager on the Hornets. If Dallas ends upwinning by 3-6 points, you win both wagers. At thevery worst you go 1-1.

Short BankrollsDo you have a short bankroll? Take a $40 parlay ontwo or three teams to see if you can pick up some


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change to increase your bankroll. This is when aparlay is good. You have a huge bankroll? Then betflat. Obviously you don't have to worry about laying

big money. Your economic situation dictates which isbetter for you. You don't have the money to bet flat inhigh round robins or teasers? Then bet small parlaysall down potential losses and collect small returns, thisis a grind, but this is what it's all about.


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Paying Close Attention To Line MovementsGet the Best Line Across as many

Sports Books as you can.

an sports be beaten consistently for a profit?Yes. You simply have to find lines that are farenough away from the true line for the bet to

be profitable. This requires good line shopping andhandicapping.

The Line is designed to balance the money at thesports book and is not a true line of value that equatesthe quality of each team playing. So why do peoplebet the favorite just because its listed that way, I haveno idea. When the line comes out it is called theopening line. The closing line is the final line beforegame commences. As you know the line is moved fortwo reasons:

1. Its reported that a key player will not beplaying due to injury or suspension.

Chapter

4

C


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2. Significant money is placed on one side.Line Shopping

Line shopping is critical. If you only have a $100bankroll you really can't afford to shop much. Soyou're going to have to pick a great book, but youcould split your money across two top books as well.Once you find the difference in the line that gives you+EV throw some money into that particular book and

take the line.

If there's a scalp to be had, then at least one of thelines has to be more +EV then the other, and usuallyone line is +EV and one if -EV. A sharp, by definition,can and does notice the soft line.

In an ideal world you would take a position and betthe soft line to the maximum, and then bet the sharpline up to the point where you reached the amount ofrisk justified by whatever fraction of Kelly you werecomfortable betting.

But as a lot of these square books have low limits, cutlimits, in some cases even confiscate funds; theamount you can win at the square book is prettylimited. So it's often more feasible to just bet the softline.

Finding scalps and arbitrage opportunities to reducethe amount of vig that cuts into your bonus is not easyby any means; it requires constant work and attention


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to the lines. You have to get good at predicting linemoves or find people who are and listento them.

Arbitrage

Does the bookmaker change the point spread inresponse to a big bet? When a sharp puts his moneydown, how quickly do other sharps find out about hisplay and bet the same team as well? The sharp alsouses his reputation to manipulate lines, calledarbitraging.

The sharp sees a game that he feels is sure to win, butthe point spread is a couple of points off. He wouldlike to move it closer to the line he thinks it should be.Say the line is -4 and hehandicapped it to a +2. Afterbaiting the books and seeing the line has been movedin his favor, he switches sides, or bets back at theoriginal side, betting more money to cover the loss ofhis original bet plus make a profit.

Scalping

Scalping is the process of betting both sides of a game

on the money lineto ensure a profit.

Example:

5Dimes

Sports Book

San Antonio

Spurs -120

NY Knicks +120

BookmakerSports Book

San AntonioSpurs -125

NY Knicks +125


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You take the San Antonio Spurs at -120 with 5Dimesand NY Knicks +125 at Bookmaker. Always makingsure the dog is a higher number than the favorite.

Hence, 125 is higher than 120.

Scalps Are Free Money

Scalps are free money, so why not bet as much as youcan? The only reason I can think of to not always betas big as possible is if you're trying to keep fromgetting flagged as a sharp bettor. If this happens, youmay get bonus banned, get your limits reduced or bedealt a sharper line. So, there are times whendiscretion may be needed, but most of the time youshould take all you can.

Sharp Lines

A sharp line is close to the true value of the teamsplaying as possible. A sports book dealing with sharplines will have higher betting limits.

Archived Lines for Data Mining

DonBest.com

Goldsheet.comCovers.com

After a Bet the Line Improves

If you're using any sort of proportional bet sizing, youshould be betting more when the line moves in your

favor.


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Rogue or Soft Line

Lets say youre searching for a line on a Spurs vs.Pistons basketball game about ready to take place. If

six books have it Spurs -3 and the seventh book has itSpurs -2, then you have one book that is Roguebecause it is different than all the others.

Sports books sometimes adjust their lines lateresulting in this soft line. Example all the books out

there in Vegas and online have a team at -7 and itchanges to -6 except for that one book thats notpaying attention. This is a great time for the sharpsto jump in and grab the soft line and get the mostvalue for their money.

I realize the sports book isnt going to change theirline because someone else does. Its all based on howmuch money is coming in on the sides. This is wherethe sharp whos paying attention, can take advantageof this situation. Unfortunate it may be for the sportsbook, but what can they do?

In general you should be hammering the roguenumber for as much as you can. This is because therogue numbers have a shorter lifespan. In the NFL it'salmost unheard of that a rogue number will last longerthan 30 min at the bigger books.


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Sharp HandicappingNow You Can Pick More Than 53%

Winners! | Information is What You

Need.

icking a winner at sports requires insideinformation, knowledge of stats and a superiorability to process public information. Any kind

of breaking news or a motivational factor that a teammight have for winning is what you need to know.

Intangible Events

With all the information and stats available oncomputers and what is being said on ESPN Pre-Gameshows, you still cant accurately predict the finaloutcome of any game without some kind of luck.Certain circumstances you won't be able to handicapin games are human error, luck factor, officiating, and

other situations that are committed during the courseof a game. There is an instinct you acquire over timethat is a type of knowledge that comes only with

Chapter

5

P


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experience. I don't believe it is possible to handicapthe way touts would have you believe. That's becauseso many intangibles pop up during the course of a

game and change the flow. There are certain statisticsthat we must apply to our handicapping process. Withthat said, chances are the game still won't be playedout as you had hoped.

Home Dogs

It has to do with the fact that you have an edge whenyou bet on an underdog who is playing at home,getting points. While I admit that getting points andthe home team is a nice position to be in, please don'tthink it's a sure bet. When the line maker makes hisfinal decision on a game he is aware of all things.

The home team getting points usually earns thatdistinction by playing lousy ball or by being matchedagainst a powerful opponent. Home dogs will occur inall major sports and pop up every week. I'll take thehome team if they are playing well and/or the roadfavorite is playing lousy.

Overlay of Points

An overlay is where a favorite is giving away toomany points to the underdog in which case a questioncomes up, such as will they cover the spread? In suchcases the underdog could possibly be a good bet tocover the spread instead of the favorite.

The pro takes the points, not because he feels theunderdog has a great chance of winning, but that theline maker is taking advantage of the public opinion


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that glamorous teams will be bet regardless of theamount of points they lay.

Injuries

The line will be adjusted for the injury as the linemaker finds out about it. If the injury is earlier in theweek or earlier in the day, before the game, Im surethe line has already been adjusted to account for it. Iwouldn't give too much attention to injuries becausethey have athletes on the bench that are just as capableof stepping in and doing a good job. But its alwaysgood to be cautious.

Weather

The weather, as in the wind, is a big factor that needsto be taken into consideration. In a football game you

might want to lean toward the under. As teams willrun more which might lead to more fumbles. Theywill be less tempted to go for any long distance fieldgoals.

Coach Philosophy

Every coach has a strategy that they adhere to andthey build their team around that strategy. They getplayers adapted to this particular way of thinkingwhich can lead their team to great success.

Handicapping Basketball

1. Favorites tend to be overrated2. Home-court is strong but the laying of points

brings it to an even game


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1. Lean towards taking points2. Look for power teams on the road giving three

points or less

3. Try to avoid laying six points or more evenwith power teams at home

4. Don't worry too much about injuries5. Look for power centers versus teams weak in

the middle

6. Don't bet against teams on long winning streaks7. Watch for overlays8.

Lean toward under during playoffs

9. Lean toward dogs during playoffs10. Definitely lean toward road dogs who are better

than 500 away from home

11.

Look to bet on teams with great records.Especially with teams that have good ATSrecords

12. Look to bet against teams with poor recordspreferably when they are home


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Figure 10 NBA Line Odds

Figure 11 NBA Game Match-Up


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Figure 12 OKC Thunder Against the Spread

Figure 13 Orlando Magic Against the Spread


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Figure 14 NBA Consensus Picks

NBA Home Dogs

When looking at NBA home dogs you need to dosome homework: which team is hot, which team iscold, what are the point spread records, is there aheight advantage, is one team on a roll of holding

opponents to under 100 points a game, is a teamstarting or ending a road trip, is there a coachingedge?

Sure, I like to take the better team, but in football andbasketball they have points attached to each game thatmake the game and even match. There are sharp pros,

who bet only on power teams. There are sharp pros,who bet only on the dog getting points. Who's to sayeither is wrong.


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Take the time to record every team's record against thespread or look at websites like donbest.com. I like thepower teams, and I like getting points. Rarely will you

see a power team getting points, unless it's on the roadversus another power team. In that case, I'm lookingto grab the underdog plus the points. If possible a dogteam, must have a winning record, and a+ 500 recordversus the spread, and was close to winning in the lastthree games, and getting at least three points.

A real dog gets 7 to 13 points, which indicate that thelines maker sees them as being overmatched. When ateam is getting one, two or three points, this is usuallyjust a concession to the home team because they're infriendly surroundings.

If your dog is holding teams to less than 100 points

consistently, they are worth a bet. Also make sure thatteam is capable of winning the game outright, withoutany points.

Example:

Detroit 22 - 10 is at home to Boston 15 - 18, laying

four points. Detroit's home record is 13-4, whileBoston is 7-10, against the spread. Detroit is 11-6 athome, while Boston is .500 with a 9-8 against thespread on the road. Now the question is what teamsdoes Detroit play to achieve the home record of 13-4?A closer examination of the games that were played

showed Detroit ran up their great record against teamsthat were below .500 for the most part. Boston withtheir 9-8 record shows they were playing powerteams, +.500. Boston was playing stronger teams. So


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if I were to bet on this game as a pro I would takeBoston and get the points.

Remember these 8 points when selecting teams to bet

on basketball:

1. Power versus dog.2. Get points with power teams on the road.3. Restrict the amount of your ladies to

approximately 6 or lower at home in five or lesson the road.

4. Look for live dogs.5. Check for records against the spread.6. Look to bet on teams on winning streaks.7. Watch for overlays.8. Watch for traps or false favorites.

Take a look at games between two evenly matched

teams with line spreads between two and four points.I watch the line move and bet either with the public oragainst the public. If you are fading the public, youwill be betting the side that has less attention. Don'tlet the betting public affect your decision, if you'reunsure pass on a game.

There are links to download audio clips about 1 hours long combined on the Sharp Inputwebsite with

Alan Boston, a professional College Basketball


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handicapper discussing his picks and why he chosethem. He also discusses what makes a coach good orbad as well as many other things.

Handicapping Baseball

1. Use the pictures listed to decide not to bet agame rather than to bet on it.

2. Go with teams on a winning streak3. Go with pitchers who have good lifetimerecords first is his opponent on that particular

day

4. Go against pitchers with lousy lifetime records5. Stay away from betting on teams and a scoring

slump

6. Try to avoid pitchers with a high walk ratiosuch as 5 or 6 per game

7. Be sure the team you bet on a has an acereliever, at most ERA 3.50

8. Look to bet over in games involving pitcherswith a high walk ratio

9. Bet on power teams versus weak home teamsBaseball Run LinesThe pros are willing to risk extra money, by reducingtheir chances of losing through the use of extra runs.


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If the team you are going against is weak, giveawaythe runs because you think the team you are goingagainst cannot win outright.

Baseball Parlays and Round Robins

1. -160 or higher get included in parlays.2. -180 and higher with the laying of 1 runs get

included in parlays and round robins.

3. Teams that are -150 and lower go into roundrobins.4. A dog will go into a round robin or flat bet.5. +140 or more gets 1 runs and enters into a

parlay or round-robin.

Baseball Over and Under

1. Are the teams in a low scoring streak? Betunder.

2. Starting pitcher is the ERA over five? Bet over.3. Are the pitchers hot and in a winning streak?

Bet under.

4. Are the teams dropping balls, bad fielding? Betover.

5. Pitchers with high walk ratios? Bet over.6. Pitchers that last 5 innings, bet over. Some

teams dont have ace relievers and end up


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having a lot of runs scored against them in thelate innings.

7. Strike-out pitchers are good under plays.8. Below .500 teams get an over play. Meaning

they win less than half of their games due toweak pitchers and/or weak fielding.

Figure 15 MLB Line Odds

Figure 16 MLB Match-Up

Handicapping Football

Running teams are power houses the feeling is that theteams that establish the run as the dominant part oftheir offense tend to win more often.


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But the biggest factor in checking out a football gameis to concentrate on teams with low turnover ratios. Astrong running game effects my decision on betting

sides. Weak defenses affect my decision on bettingover.

Following are several factors I look for whenchecking the schedule:

1.

Getting points2. Power versus dog3. Going with hot teams4. Going against cold teams5. Staying with teams over 5006. Looking for overlays7. Using totals8.

Weather conditions

9. Coaching philosophy


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Figure 17 NCAA Football Against the Spread Stats

Figure 18 NFL Football Against the Spread Stats


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Figure 19 NFL Pittsburgh Football Standings


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Figure 20 NFL Green Bay Football Standings

The Line and Getting Points

When a team gets points this is to be considered thedog. Each game has the team giving the points listed

as the favorite and the ones getting the points arecalled the dog. If a game is listed as pick em it meansthat the lines maker has trouble deciding if one teamis better than the other. When you become proficientin setting your own lines, make them ahead of time.Then compare your line to the real one. Make your bet

based on the difference you made on the game asopposed to the officials spread. The official line issupposed to bring the favorite and the dog to an evenkeel. So if I truly believe in my ability to handicap the


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game, then a big difference in the officials spread andmy number keys me onto the game. If a lot of otherbettors see it my way and grab a certain team. The

line will start to move. So it is in my interest to workfast on this game make a decision and get my play inearly otherwise the line might move against me. And Iwill not be able to make an efficient play.

Overlay and Underlay

An overlay means you think the official line has thefavorite, laying to many points. An underlay meansyou think the official line has the favorite, laying toofew points.

Your Edge in the NFL

In the NFL supposed Washington is 5-5 playing at

home against Cleveland, standing at 5-5, this is theirwin loss record for the season so far. The book makesWashington a 2 1/2 point favorite. You start to makenotes looking for an edge.

1. Washington is a short favorite at home.2. Washington has a better rushing attack.3. Cleveland has a better field-goal kicker.4. Cleveland has scored an average of 20 points a

game over the past three games.

5. Washington has scored an average of 16 pointsfor the past three games.


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6. Cleveland has won its last two games,Washington is 1-1.

7. Cleveland is getting 2 points.What you have is a pretty even game. So where'd youget the edge? You could pass on the game or put thegame into a teaser and take Cleveland, getting points.When it's this close the line maker is telling you,anybody can win, but he puts one side in the favoriterole. Your job is to see if the team warrants it.

There will be favorites in all games, but the questionremains, do they cover the spread? Some teams havegood straight up records such as 11-2. But against thespread they might be 5-8. So if the official line has afavorite team laying to many points they will fail tocover the spread.

Power Versus Dog

In sports, the term power versus dog must beintroduced. It is my way of determining the best teamin a matchup from the worst team. This is easy to see,because when the line maker makes a line, the powerteam, is usually giving points to the worst team.

Remember, I want more points against a team with acomparable record. These are what teasers are madefor even though teasers cut into your profits. If bothteams are power teams utilize these teasers as well or

pass on the game.Things I will look for with the dog that will make meconsider betting them.


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1. Dog has won 3 games in a row.2. Dog is giving up 17 points or less in each of the

last three games.

3. Dog has scored more than 28 points in the lastthree games.

4. Dog has covered to spread the last three out offour games.

5. Dog has beaten this team before outright.6. Dog has covered 6 out of 8 games within the

spread so far this year.

7. Dog has big edge over the power team inrushing yards allowed.

8. Look for dogs with better point spread records.9. Look for dogs with both an offensive and a

defensive edge.

Personally, I like to use the powerversus dog theory,because I'm getting the proven stronger team goinginto the game. Next you have to find reasons not totake that game. If you're unsure, just pass on thegame.

Picking dogs is easier said than done. You can't just

pick any dog; you have to isolate teams that youhonestly believe can win the game outright. Teams


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that are better than their opponents. Look for dogswith better straight up records.

I always set an amount of points that I will lay on a

power versus dog bet and in pro football that amountis 4 on the road and 6 at home. Records past theprevious three games are useless because coacheschange your philosophies based on what the opponentis showing over the last couple of games.

Reality of an Established LineThis is the reality of the line. The line maker hasChicago giving six points to Cleveland. He has, in hisopinion; brought that game to a perceived standoff thepoints make it so.

Suppose Kansas City was playing at Chicago. And

each team was sporting a win-loss record 4-6, eachwas locked into a three-game losing streak and bothteams had scored less than 17 points in their past fourgames. Their near identical records make it a hardchoice. But you still figure you have an idea of whatthe line will be, and make Chicago -3.

The three-point edge is strictly based on home-fieldwith a nod towards Chicago kicking game. Then youcompare your Chicago -3 with the official line. Youcould see Kansas City -1 with a dog getting the nodon the road. That's a four point spread.

You can either pass on the game or you can takeChicago getting +1 since you already had them at -3.The decision is yours.


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Live Dogs

Live dogs are teams that are getting points that reallyshouldn't. Their record indicates that they are weak,

but there level of play in those games should bestudied. If the lines maker made them a seven pointunderdog you would have to be cautious, but doubledigits with a team playing very strong versus goodcompetition has to be a live dog.

Here are a few ways to finding a live dog;

1. The favorite has a strong, straight up record buta weak ATS record.

2. The dog has a good offense, although losing.3. The dog has held opponents to less than 20

points in their last three games.

The line maker setting the lines is fabulous, but he isnot perfect. He does not always have the right team asthe favorite, yet most players look at the line and areimmediately swayed by the figures. If you set yourlines before looking at the board you would not beintimidated by the official line and will put yourmoney on the side you perceive to be the best pick.

When the line comes out each week, there are manyteams put on top just on reputation alone. In collegethere are the NCAA Men's Basketball AP Top 25

teams and Top 10 teams in different conferences thatare considered favorites. But really shouldn't be there,all because of the money flowing into the colleges.Just remember when you come to a game where you


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think it's too high, pass on it or revert to a teaser tobring the overlay down to a realistic lay.

Betting On FavoritesWhy should I go for the favorites in sports when it is agiven that the favorites win only between 57 to 60%of the time while going for live dogs gives a muchbetter potential return? A terrific point has been madebut lets look at it in a couple of different ways.

I agree that the favorites will win between 57 to 60%of the time so you do have that going for you. Thatleaves the dogs winning between 40 to 43% and thinknow would you rather have a 57 to 60% chance ofwinning or a 40 to 43% chance of winning?

Lets suppose were looking to bet a 3 team parlay, theBoston Red Sox -200, Los Angeles Dodgers -147 andSan Diego Padres -159. If all three won with a $30wager you get back $89 about a 3-1 payoff which isgood, seeing as how you have three favorites.

Now suppose I went back and took the three dogsinstead at +180, +147 and +149 and bet the same $30.Look at the return I get now for the same $30 thatpaid me $89. I would get about $351 for $30, $237 for$20 and $118 for $10. Those are tremendous payoutsfor a small investment. Although it would be near

impossible to protect those higher paying parlaysbecause the hedge (lay amount) would eat into thepayoffs a great bit. Also you have to remember the 3-1favorite payoff of $89 is wagered on teams that are


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considered to be the better team with a much betterchance of winning and still allowing a chance for amiddleif you want. You can take the dog in a hedge at

approximately a +145 amount money line bet or atleast enough to cover half of your original wager. Oryou can take +1.5 runs setting up a middle, reducingthe amount of the potential loss either way.

I pick and choose my favorites by first picking thePower team that is playing against a known dog likethe Red Sox going againt Seattle. I am picking a verypowerful team to go against a known dog but letssuppose Hernandez is pitching for Seattle, a Cy Youngwinner, you should pass on the game because two hotpitchers are going against one another.

I only take the Red Sox if the 3rd, 4th or 5th starter isgoing and is in a bad run meaning we have a weakpitcher going against a power pitcher. I am pickingand choosing the very powerful teams against the veryweak teams and then going further and going againstthe worst pitchers on those weak teams. I figure my

favorites would then not be in the 57 to 60% chanceof winning but rather in the 68 to 71% chance ofwinning because I have refined my choices toeliminate pitchers who could beat my power team.This would be my edge that I am looking for. Now Ihave increased my chances of winning to around 70%

and my chances of losing to about 30%.


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Home Edge

It's definitely an edge to be planted in a packed gymwith a bunch of cheering fans on their side. But the

line maker knows this and makes the home team andoverlay, thereby cutting into the edge the home teamhad. I agree being at home is an edge, but theopposition, amount of points, and spread recordsmake the final decision when it comes to betting on agame.

Personally, I only go back three games to see how ateam is playing. These college coaches are so sharpthat they keep tabs on upcoming opponents by way ofscouts, videos, etc. And adjust their defenses andoffenses according to how that upcoming opponent isplaying.

NHL Lines

The NHL puck line wager is unique in that it is acombination point spread and money line wager. So,for example, you might have a line that looks like this:

1. Ottawa Senators +1.5 -150 versus BuffaloSabres -1.5+130.

In this case, Buffalo is the favorite, and would have towin by two goals, in order to win. If you bet Buffaloand they win by two, then you'd win $130 on a $100bet. If you bet on Ottawa, and they win outright or

lose by one goal, then you would need to bet $150 towin $100.


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Handicapping Hockey

Goalies are the guys to look to when handicappinghockey games. Let me tell you this isnt easy either.

Hockey is probably the hardest sport to handicap inmy opinion. Is the team good enough to give awaygoals? Whos the goalie? Is there any motivationalfactor you can key in on? And of course the price hasto be right.

The most critical number to look at when judging how

a goalie will impact a game is their Goals AgainstAverage. This will tell you how many goals theyallow in an average sixty minute game. It tells how heand his defense work together to prevent goals. If youwant a little more insight into how a recently traded orsigned goalie might perform, save percentage can also

come in handy.However, we dont want to simply consider a goaliesoverall numbers when thinking about how hes likelyto perform in a game. Goaltending can be verystreaky, and a hot goalie can make any team into amassive force to contend with. Check out how a

goaltender has done over the last few games; if theirnumbers have been outstanding, it may mean thattheyre in good form and can be expected to continueputting up good results.

Conversely, if you see their save percentages goingdown during recent games, and especially if thatnumber goes below 90%, you can feel confident that agoalie is headed for a cold streak. It may be best to betagainst that goalie or pass on the game.


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How many penalties a team acquires is anotherimportant factor in your handicapping. A team thatconverts power plays at a high rate will have a

significant advantage over a team that often visits thepenalty box.

Figure 21 NHL Puck Lines

All of these tips that we have covered in the top four

sports are designed to increase your knowledge ofhandicapping. Handicapping is still very hard to dobased on statistical data alone because of the prospectof human weakness and errors committed by thejudges and the officials of these sporting events.

1. Knowledge of handicapping sports teams ismore than cold statistics and betting favorites.There are hidden signs that give you an edge.


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2. It is more important that you concentrate onsetting up your bankroll, using a strong money-management method, and having the discipline

to accept small returns. Handicapping isknowledge of the game.

3. Pregame shows and the internet give updatedinformation right up to game time so ifanything changes it will show on the line.

4. Knowledge is the most important tool to ahandicapper. You must know the sport yourebetting on thoroughly. Watch a lot of games andlearn about the teams and players. You maydiscover some teams are consistent playingteams and some are not.

Power Ratings

The Sagarin ratings, written in the USA Todaynewspaper, represent what the rating would have to befor a hypothetical team to have a mathematicalexpectation of winning precisely 50% of their games

against the schedule played by the team in question inthe games that it has played so far. The scheduledifficulty of each given game takes into account therating of the opponent and the location of the game.

This is the same concept that is used when calculating

to win 50% conference ratings. To make predictionsfor upcoming games, simply compare the ratings ofthe teams in question and allow an additional 4 pointsfor the home team. Thus, for example, a home team


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with a rating of 92 would be favored by 6 points overa visiting team having a rating of 90. Or a visitingteam with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points

over a home team having a rating of 78.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the

output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 4

was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will

vary during the season.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strengthare its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and itsrecord versus teams in these rating's current top 25and top 50 respectively.

For the first few weeks of the season, the startingratings have weight in the processBayesian, but oncethe teams are all well connected, then the startingratings are no longer used and all teams are startedequal and the ratings are then done in an unbiasedmanner from that point on. The teams are now wellconnected and so the ratings are unbiased.

Figure 22 Sagarin Ratings


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Handicapping Information?

Donbest.comGoldsheets.com

USAToday.com/sports/sagarinSportsoptions.comVegasinsider.com

You may also check out all the individual sportingwebsites such as NBA.com or NFL.com, you get the

point.


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Bonuses, Public Opinion & PropsStrategies to make you a winner!

o offshore sports books a bonus whore issomeone who opens an account at many booksto obtain bonuses to build a small bankroll

quicker. This is a good strategy to use as you willlearn in the next section.

Clearing BonusesFor Cash Bonus purposes bets are defined as eitherthe risk or win amount, whichever is smaller. If you

bet large favorites at Pinnacle Sports Book, say themoney lineon a basketball game is -450; they won'tcount $450 towards your bonus requirements, only the$100 you win. Of the riskor reward its the lesser ofthe two.

If you want to clear the bonus safely without losingpart of it to the juice then scalping is your best option,

Chapter

6

T


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though it requires some effort and isn't anywhere nearas easy as it sounds.

So you deposit $500 in Book A and $600 shows inyour account ($100 bonus money). If their rolloverrequirement is 3x that means you need to give them($600x3) $1800 in bets. So $1800 must be wageredthrough your account in at a minimum of three wagersto clear the bonus.

Find scalpsand arbitrageopportunities to reduce theamount that the vigorish cuts in to your bonus. Its notsimple or easy by any means; it requires constantwork and attention to the lines. You have to be good atpredicting line moves and the certain times theymove.

For example, you could have secured San Diego -2.5+109 earlier in the week which could now be linkedwith Baltimore +2.5 -103 a day later for a decentscalp.

Fading the PublicIn other words bet against the bigger percentage ofwhat the public is betting on. You can check theconsensus at covers.comor at the places listed downbelow.

Public OpinionTo find out where the general public is putting theirmoney go to one of the following websites:


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Donbest.comSportsoptions.comCovers.com

Soft Prop Bets

The lines on many proposition bets are soft becausenot a lot of thought goes into them as in regulargames. Many casinos offer proposition bets for justabout any event.

Evaluating a prop bet is a small process. First is tomake a prediction of what is likely to happen. Second,search out all the possible probabilities of the prop.Third decide if you have an edge and place your bet.

To predict the likely outcome, look at pastperformances, matchups, injuries, weather reports andconsider motivation.

Now you must figure out how much of a probabilitythat each side of the prop will win. Now you cancompare your answer to the terms of the prop to

determine whether you have an edge. You only wantto make the bet if the expected value of the payoff ishigher than the bet you make.

You can make two types of prop bets. A Player propor a Matchup prop such as figures 23-26.


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Figure 23 NBA Player Props

Figure 24 Tennis Props

Figure 25 Baseball Props


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Figure 26 Mixed Martial Arts Props


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More Sharp InputEnough to Keep You Wise.

eople need to learn as much information aspossible to remove their ignorance when bettingsports. For this reason, Im telling you more

things that will bring you up to par.

Betting Exchanges

Betting exchanges like Betfairand Tradesports allowyou to trade contracts directly with other users. Theexchanges charge trading and settlement fees, much

like stock exchanges. Currently, Betfair is the largestand best exchange, but it does not allow accountsfrom the United States. Even Matchbook.com justrecently closed down all US accounts and is denyingUS residents from opening an account. The newowners of Matchbook have been informed by its legal

advisors that accepting wagers from anyone locatedwithin the United States might constitute a violation of

United States law. Accordingly, Matchbook will nolonger accept a participant located in the United

Chapter

7P


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States, where wagering on a sporting event or anyother event in which chance predominates might be aviolation of law. As a result, if you are a registered

participant located in the United States, you will notbe able to access your account for the purposes ofplacing a wager effective immediately.

Things like this are happening all the time. I oftenwonder if any US citizen will be able to gamble on theinternet in coming years, despite the revenue the statescan generate. The big poker sites like Fulltilt,Pokerstars and Absolute Poker got banned fromallowing all US players to play for real money.

Beating the Closing Line

If you bet a game at +3 and it closes at +2, you havebeaten the market. The closing line is most efficient.Most people get caught up in win-loss records whenthey should be focused on bets vs. closing lines. Thisoccurs often when people are focusing on justhandicapping only. People say, Well hes hitting 60%over 400 games. Who cares? How are his bets

compared to closing lines? This is a very strongindicator of future success. For example, if hesconstantly taking +4 and the game closes +5.5, hes adonkey or square, I dont care what his won-lossrecord is. Also, late game changes affect the market assharps may not be around to even out the action to a

true line. It's obvious that most sharp bettors whoenter the world of gambling everyday realize the needfor money management. They know they lose when


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they don't have money management. Just rememberhow you bet is more important than who you bet. Theperception that many people have about sports betting

is that, how many correct winners they can pick. Mythoughts are based on where I stand from a dollarperspective at the end of the week.

Add your own thoughts and conclusions, in this wayyou will have a more conservative approach to

gambling.

Keep Sharp Records

Say you lose a game or youre in a seven game coldstreak. You never figured in the human element ofsports handicapping. When things happened in the

game, could you control them? Can you protect yourbet from these things happening, human error, officialerrors, and human emotions? No. And maybe you didfigure the game right, but so what!

Say it came down to one play where you were close tobeing a genius, but things happened that you just can't

handicap into the game. The devastation you will feelwhen this happens can only be lessened with hedgingor by betting with smaller units of money.

You must record the results of all of your picks.Unless you record your wagers and results, you maythink that you are doing well when youre not.

Recording your wagers will help you maximize yourstrengths and enable you to review your mistakes.


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Here at this website you can use their spreadsheet tokeep track of your bets. Highly recommended.

Figure 27 SBR Spreadsheet

Live Betting

Live betting is simply betting on a game while itsbeing played. With live betting you have the option ofhedging your bet when the time is right for you during

the game.

Figure 28 NBA Live Betting
http://www.signup.mysbrforum.com/http://www.signup.mysbrforum.com/


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NHL Live Betting

Figure 29 NHL Live Betting

Halftime Bets

Does the original spread look like it will cover? Is theopponent dominating your team? Answering thesequestions may mean you need to hedge your bet witha halftime bet.

Buying Points

Buying points is a way you can add points to thespread. However in doing so, you pay more moneyother than the usual -110. Say you get a team at -3 and you buy a point and moves the line to -2 for the

price of -130.

Future Bets

You can bet on who wins the World Series in baseball.See the following figures on the next page.


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Figure 30 MLB Future Bets

Figure 31 MLB Odds to win ALP

Unjustified Favorites

In college ball many teams are favored based onreputation alone and should not be favored at all.They may have weak offensive and defensive skillsand may be a young team with less experience. In the

pros, do the teams cover the spread? The lineindicates that they should win but not necessarily so,so you might want to get extra points whether buyingthem or putting your teams into a teaser. This bringsthe overlay to a more realistic lay.


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Words from The AuthorYou can make your own decision on what advice tofollow. This book is written so you can make extra

income in these days of hardship. But, dont quit yourday job! This job isnt easy. So at first, set a win goal.When you reach it, shove you original stake in yourpocket, plus half of your profits and play with the rest.Try building that little bit up! What a challenge.

If you are on the winning side, you claim that you're agood handicapper. If you're on the losing side, youblame God, and curse out your family. Games go yourway and some against you. Half the time the gamesare decided by human error and other intangibles thatgo against you. You will be disgusted, but what canyou do? Post your picks publicly on a forum, and posta write-up on WHY you're picking that game. Discussthe merits of your picks, and other people's picks.You'll gain a lot more from the discussion processthan you will from just making your picks and postingyour record for the sake of credibility. Be betterinformed than Joe Public. Live, eat, breathe your

sport.


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APPENDIX


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Multiple Lines and Archivessbrlines.comcovers.com

oddschecker.comdonbest.comsportsoptions.comshowmetheodds.com

Forums and Sports RadioTo keep more in touch you need to read andparticipate in the sport forums. You may also listen toKWWN - ESPN Radio 1100 Las Vegas, NV. Thisstation has some local touts speaking on air and youcan listen to their picks and the reasons why they didso. Try using Googleto locate the following websites.

ESPN Radio Las VegasCovers Sports Betting ForumsSBR ForumTwo Plus Two ForumRX ForumJohn Patrick's Message Board


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GLOSSARY


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Sports Betting Terminology

ActionPlacing bets on games. Bad BeatA term for a highly favored team to

win but, nevertheless loses. It most often occurswhere the opposing team plays poorly duringthe course of the season, eventually wins.

Beard A friend used to place bets to concealidentity of the other.

BookEstablishment that accepts your bets. Bookmaker/BookieSame as Book. Buck$100. Buy Points When a player pays an additional

price for more points.

ChalkThe Favorite. Dime$1,000. Dime LineA line where the juice is 10% Dollar$100. Exotic A Prop bet Exposure The max amount of money a sports

book stands to lose on a game.

Fifty Cents $50. Figure The amount owed to a book or by a

book.

Getting Down Making a bet. Half A Dollar $50. Handle Total amount of money bet on a game. Hook A half-point. Hot Game A game that is drawing a lot of

action.

Juice Commission book earns.


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Lock An easy winner. Longshot An unlikely win. Nickel $500. Nickel Line A line where the juice is 5%. Off the Board Book isnt offering action yet. Outlaw Line The earliest line out to be bet on

by the wiseguys

Push Tie, no win or loss of money. Run Down Sports Book lists all the games for

the day. Runner One who places bets for another. Sharp A sophisticated or professional gambler. Square A Novice sports bettor. Straight Bet A bet made on one team. Steam A lot of bettors are betting on the same

team thus, moving the line. Value Getting the best odds in a game. Vigorish Same as Juice.


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BIBLIOGRAPHY


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Stanford Wong, 2001 Sharp Sports Betting,Pi Yee Press

John Patrick, 1995 Sports Handicapping, John PatrickProductions

Chad Millman, 2001 The Odds, Da Capo Press

a novice guide to sports betting, 85pp

Documents

sports betting

betting sports

sharp lines

g e sharp handicapping

betting exchanges

novice guide

sports books

nhl live betting