a new political science.4

1. Here is Gus Lubin’s story (No patience? …. Go to Item #6 on page 7 to see what happened)

Gus LubinAug. 25, 2016, 6:11 PM

The marketing guru who created extra-chunky

pasta sauce has a plan to save Donald Trump

Howard Moskowitz is famous for inventing extra-chunky Prego spaghetti sauce and creating or

optimizing dozens of other products.

Now Moskowitz says he has a plan for Donald Trump to win over African-American voters and

save his campaign.

Prego

Moskowitz’s method, called Mind Genomics, asks people to rate dozens of combinations of

variables and then crunches the numbers to see what variables matter to different groups.

The marketing legend started focusing on politics around 15 years ago but says neither

Republicans nor Democrats appreciated his methods. This year, he said, he decided to fund a series

of studies with the goal of defeating what he thinks would be a disastrous Hillary Clinton

presidency.

http://www.businessinsider.com/author/gus-lubin

https://www.ted.com/talks/malcolm_gladwell_on_spaghetti_sauce/transcript?language=en

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-black-voters-2016-8

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-black-voters-2016-8

“This is a pretty serious election,” Moskowitz told Business Insider. “I decided there’s no way I’m

going to get to Trump at all to help him because he’s covered tightly, but I might just do these

studies and fund them myself and write up the result and just push it out there and send it to his

people with a note: ‘Dear Mr. Trump, I’m trying to get you elected. Here’s what you should say

to the black population. Here’s what you shouldn’t say.’”

Moskowitz analyzed the political views of 102 black Americans recruited through TurkPrime and

participating via his website, IdeaMap.net.

His report (featured below) found that black voters care most about lowering taxes in their

community, having a strong leader, creating jobs, changing the tax code to help workers and small

businesses, making college affordable, and improving the financial health of the US.

Moskowitz says Trump should aim to alter current perception among black voters about which

candidate will keep the nation safe (45% say Clinton, 5% say Trump) and create jobs for their

families (45% say Clinton, 6% say Trump), as well as whether each candidate is corrupt (23% say

Clinton is, while 47% say Trump is).

He recommends that Trump avoid talking about repealing Obamacare, raising taxes, or nominating

pro-life Supreme Court candidates.

Trump has been actively reaching out to black voters, following polling data that suggests dismal

support among the group. His message — calling Clinton a "bigot" and suggesting that black

communities are in such plight that they might as well try something new — doesn’t seem to be

working.

Crafting a political campaign is, of course, trickier than developing consumer products. You can’t

release three different Trumps to appeal to different segments.

“In a polarized country, how does one candidate satisfy all the different objectives? I don’t know

that,” Moskowitz says.

Moskowitz said he wishes some politician would openly embrace Mind Genomics and use it to

define policy.

“I would put out these kinds of studies of thousands of people and figure out my policy based on

making the maximum number of people happy," he said.

The Trump campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Check out the full report — the first of several — below.

https://www.turkprime.com/Home/About

http://ideamap.net/

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-s-history-undermines-new-outreach-black-voters-n635821

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/us/politics/nigel-farage-brexit-donald-trump.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/us/politics/donald-trump-black-voters.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/us/politics/donald-trump-black-voters.html

2. Here is Howard’s short piece

A NEW POLITICAL SCIENCE: Changing the election ....from smears / insults to understanding / offering what voters REALLY need

Howard Moskowitz Speaker, Author, Poet, Scientist and Market Innovator We believe that there is NO WAY that either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump really knows what the people think and want. They don’t have this information, or else they’d use it. They can’t have it..polls can’t show it..polls just show general problems, not the different mind-sets. But our political candidates use the polls. And in place of knowledge which would help them WIN...they smear each other. In place of knowledge which elevates (let the better offering win the vote), they use insult (let the most besmeared candidate lose the vote). We should be proud of this? Are you kidding me? This is America 2016. SHAME on this nation for sinking to the depths. A mud fight for the presidency. What we did, what we learned, and the implications for the election and for a True POLITICAL SCIENCE

https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmoskowitz

https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmoskowitz

3. The research and the science What we did is get about 100 Afro-Americans to participate in a Mind Genomics (i.e., IdeaMap) for each study. In a single study, run on the web, each respondent evaluated a unique set of 25 vignettes, concepts, comprising different combinations of elements. We tested 5 silos of 4 elements each, or 20 elements. These were incorporated into vignettes according to an experimental design. Each person tested the same structure of design, but the combinations were different for each person. In the end, each person tested each element multiple times against different backgrounds. We look at the resulting ‘utilities’ … likelihood to vote for… The analysis uses regression, straightforward statistics Regression first delivers a constant = estimated likelihood or probability of voting for the candidate in the absence of any messages from elements Each of the 20 elements has a ‘utility’ or ‘coefficient.’ This is the additive probability of voting for one’s candidate if the element, part of a platform, is present in the platform You can add up to four elements to the constant to estimate the total probability of voting for the candidate with a platform comprising the four elements. The constant, once again, is the basic likelihood to vote The elements are independent of the candidate…we want to focus on the people’s needs, emerging from the pattern of reactions to the elements. So.. We believe that there is NO WAY that either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump really knows what the people think and want. They don’t have this information, or else they’d use it. They can’t have it..polls can’t show it..polls just show general problems, not the different mind-sets As a consequence, they use invective, insults, innuendo because they don’t know what the voters really want

4. The key benefits of this approach

The system can’t be gamed. You can’t be politically correct because the combinations present multiple ideas. You have to go with your ‘gut’ because you can’t guess what is correct 1. The combinations are different for all respondents, so we cover a wide range of combinations 2. We don’t have to know anything at all to determine the algebra of the mind 3. We can use easy, robust statistics (regression modeling) to figure out what are the important

elements, even when the respondent cannot tell us. 4. Every element appears multiple times..it’s a torture test for an element to do well. So what emerges

is REAL 5. It’s fast, it’s inexpensive We have now created the possibility of a True Political Science, where we can learn from the mind of the citizen that which is important... even when the citizen cannot express it or does not even realize it This material can be studied over years, and across populations, and countries, or within a country across groups We can now discover exactly what’s important to the citizen, and the candidate can craft a platform to address the multiple, often opposing views of constituents. The segmentation allows us to identify the REAL minds of the citizens. We see even in the Afro-American community different needs and wants, which on the surface balance each other out. The balance..from the countervailing forces…no one thinks the topic is important OR no one knows what to offer the citizen because the candidate and the government see NOISE. It’s NOT NOISE. It’s simply the interplay of mind-sets. The candidates should realize that this information changes the game of politics. Rather than guessing, one can scientifically poll the people…not for their issues or for their voting, but rather for their responses to solutions to problems. The candidate LEARNS the nature of the problem, and can craft a set of solutions as part of the platform.

5. Imagine a candidate saying the following

I intend to make this country great, its people prosperous, happy, and educated. And help the world. How … 1. On a continuing basis, throughout the US and the world, my administration will run these studies to

identify topics that are problem areas, and solutions that the citizens want. 2. My administration will share these results with all citizens of the US, and with the world 3. We will then craft solutions to problems, solutions which will be transparent 4. We will offer this approach to state governments across the US 5. We will incorporate this science, Mind Genomics, into small modules, Learning Apps, that will allow

our young students, our future voters, to learn how to do this science themselves. 6. Our administration will usher in a new period of greatness for America, greatness based on

knowledge, growth, happiness of its citizens, greatness based on doing good things for people in the US and around the world

7. And my administration will use this science to promote world peace, but using it to study what the different sides in conflicts around the world really want. Perhaps if both sides learn what the other really wants, then they can create a solution and bring peace

In other words, a campaign, an administration, a world, built on the principles of understanding what people need and want, and efforts to deliver peaceful, constructive solutions to those needs and wants Who knows what the future will bring. Rather than invectives, solutions. Rather than anger, knowledge. Rather than violence, construction. That is the vision of Howard Moskowitz for the campaign, but really for the world. Write to Howard at [email protected] for more information and data

6. The results of using the right messages … based in part on using data delivered to KellyAnn Conway, end of August,

2016

From the Web … September 19, 2016 4 50 PM Polls suggest African Americans may bid Barack Obama a stinging farewell by handing Donald Trump the biggest Republican share of the black vote in forty-years. For all the efforts of the Clinton war machine, the media and groups like Black Lives Matter to smear Trump as a racist, the Republican candidate saw his popularity soar among African American voters last week. Of all the things that went wrong for Clinton in the last two weeks, her falling numbers among black voters may be scaring the Democrats most all.

7. What we presented to the Trump Campaign

August 24 2016

A. By Way of Introduction I’m looking forward to meeting you by phone tomorrow morning. You have a very busy and demanding schedule, so with your permission I’d like to prepare you, so we can get right to the point.

Right now Mr. Trump needs all the help he can get. More than that, he needs something which can leapfrog him over Mrs. Clinton, keep him there. He needs to win the hearts of America by presenting a plan that is realistic, daring, and can be shown to work. We are giving you that ‘something.’

In simple terms, we suggest that Mr. Trump announce that he is using the best science to understand and solve people’s needs. This science, Mind Genomics, will allow him to deeply understand what people want, in a specific way, letting him announce that and deliver it. In a sense, Mr. Trump can re-set America, returning it to a path of greatness.

I have used the science to create products like Prego Pasta Sauce and Tropicana Grovestand Orange Juice. I’ve used it to help identify the what to say for the peace process. And so forth. Imagine this tool, America’s tool, America’s new advantage in the world.

B. Here is the message for Mr. Trump .. to catapult him to a leading role and re-create

him as a statesman

What Mr. Trump should say..based on real, relevant, publicly available data....

Feasible solutions to real problems…

Harbingers of a new, open, transparent America … Of the people, By the people, For the people

Imagine Mr.Trump saying the following for Jobs and for Education…knowing EXACTLY different mind-sets, and how to message each and satisfy each!! The science and study can be done for ANY topics, among anyone, inexpensively, rapidly, with results that are equally clear. We have similar results for health issues and policy.

I, Donald Trump, with your help my fellow citizens, intend to make this country great, its people prosperous, happy, and educated. And help the world.

How will I do it? Or better, how will WE do it together?

1. On a continuing basis, throughout the US and the world, my administration will run these

studies to identify topics that are problem areas, and solutions that the citizens want.

2. My administration will share these results with all citizens of the US, and with the world

3. We will then craft solutions to problems, solutions which will be transparent

4. We will offer this approach to state governments across the US

5. We will incorporate this science, Mind Genomics, into small modules, Learning Apps, that

will allow our young students, our future voters, to learn how to do this science themselves.

6. Our administration will usher in a new period of greatness for America, greatness based on

knowledge, growth, happiness of its citizens, greatness based on doing good things for

people in the US and around the world

7. And my administration will use this science to promote world peace, but using it to study

what the different sides in conflicts around the world really want. Perhaps if both sides

learn what the other really wants, then they can create a solution and bring peace

8. In other words, a campaign, an administration, a world, built on the principles of

understanding what people need and want, and efforts to deliver peaceful, constructive

solutions to those needs and wants

C. Now to use data and science to elect Mr. Trump and to make his administration

effective beyond belief

Now imagine Mr. Trump’s Administration doing these Mind Genomics studies on topics relevant to people, publishing them, first as a candidate, then as president …. Sharing information, understanding, insights and realistic solutions

Here are results for Jobs…showing a clear understanding that the Afro-American population has four different sets of needs and solutions. This knowledge helps Mr. Trump create real solutions based on knowledge. First the promise of the solutions, and then in his administration the actual implementation of these solutions

When you look at the total panel you see ‘no pattern.’ And that’s the problem in the election. The problems are there, waiting, begging to be solved. No one sees the pattern because there are multiple patterns, interfering with each other. Our science uncovers these patterns. And the happy fact is that anyone can do this science inexpensively at any time. So Mr. Trump or anyone else can find these currents, and solve the problems. People are so busy raking in money by using old methods (inertia, crony consultative capitalism) that they miss the big and obvious opportunity

D. Data for Jobs & Education – Total data shows nothing, segments show everything

The data for jobs! Imagine what the messaging from Mr. Trump will be when he publicly identifies what the four types of issues are, how he can learn this information on a continuing basis, and how his administration is prepared to solve these problems, one after another, for the different American mind-sets. In other words… A real science confronting and solving the problems

Total Seg1 Seg2 Seg3 Seg4

Base size Total Panel - Nothing at all seems relevant,

because there are opposing waves 112

25 21 24 42

Constant 63 59 68 43 73

C1 Loan forgiveness plans for students with accumulated debt 4 5 -13 15 7

B3 Apprentice job opportunities within trades, culinary & technical businesses for unemployed youth 2

-7 13 8 -3

B2 Conservation job opportunities ... above minimum wage ... for unemployed youth 1

-5 10 0 1

D2 Promote alternate school programs for trades & technology students 1

-11 1 -5 12

C3 Work with colleges & universities to lower costs (freeze tuition) 1

-4 0 8 0

A1 Limit government regulations for those choosing to start a business 1

5 -14 15 -2

B1 Create Infrastructure job opportunities …above minimum wage... for unemployed youth 1

-8 18 1 -3

C4 Offer loan buyout option plans ... encourage student to complete education 1

2 -9 7 0

B4 Healthcare trainee job opportunities above minimum wage ... for unemployed youth 1

-6 9 2 0

E1 Investigate the high increase in tuition costs related to student education 0

14 1 0 -8

D1 Foster school choice options available to all middle & high school students 0

-2 -10 -3 9

A2 Low interest loans for businesses run by veterans 0 2 -10 16 -4

D3 Develop more opportunities for students to partner with corporate & business sponsors as they learn 0

-10 -3 -2 9

C2 Counsel students who dropped out of school because of school related debt 0

-5 0 6 0

E2 Incentivize colleges & universities to freeze tuition costs to new students 0

12 -1 2 -8

D4 Fully support home schooling organizations to support families preferring that method 0

-2 -1 -17 10

A4 Prioritize funding for start-ups in ... energy, local sustainability, & property restoration -1

1 -14 12 -2

A3 Promote corporate sponsorship of community businesses -1 -1 -12 18 -6

E4 Explore more reciprocity agreements across connecting state colleges & universities -2

20 -3 -13 -9

E3 Require college professors to spend a standard amount of time in the classroom regardless of tenure -4

13 -5 -8 -11


Base size Segment 1 - Want transparency and

accountability for higher education 112

25 21 24 42

Constant 63 59 68 43 73


20 -3 -13 -9


14 1 0 -8


13 -5 -8 -11


12 -1 2 -8


5 -14 15 -2



2 -9 7 0



1 -14 12 -2



-2 -10 -3 9


-2 -1 -17 10


-4 0 8 0


-5 10 0 1


-5 0 6 0


-6 9 2 0


-7 13 8 -3


-8 18 1 -3


-10 -3 -2 9


-11 1 -5 12


Base size Segment 2 - Give us decent jobs 112 25 21 24 42

Constant 63 59 68 43 73


-8 18 1 -3


-7 13 8 -3


-5 10 0 1


-6 9 2 0


14 1 0 -8


-11 1 -5 12


-4 0 8 0


-5 0 6 0


12 -1 2 -8


-2 -1 -17 10


20 -3 -13 -9


-10 -3 -2 9


13 -5 -8 -11


2 -9 7 0



-2 -10 -3 9




5 -14 15 -2


1 -14 12 -2


Base size - Segment 3 - Help Start Ups 112 25 21 24 42

Constant 63 59 68 43 73




5 -14 15 -2



1 -14 12 -2


-7 13 8 -3


-4 0 8 0


2 -9 7 0


-5 0 6 0


-6 9 2 0


12 -1 2 -8


-8 18 1 -3


-5 10 0 1


14 1 0 -8


-10 -3 -2 9


-2 -10 -3 9


-11 1 -5 12


13 -5 -8 -11


20 -3 -13 -9


-2 -1 -17 10


Base size - Segment 4 - Provide new forms of RELEVANT

education for the 21st Century 112

25 21 24 42

Constant 63 59 68 43 73


-11 1 -5 12


-2 -1 -17 10


-10 -3 -2 9


-2 -10 -3 9



-5 10 0 1


2 -9 7 0


-4 0 8 0


-6 9 2 0


-5 0 6 0


1 -14 12 -2


5 -14 15 -2


-8 18 1 -3


-7 13 8 -3




14 1 0 -8


12 -1 2 -8


20 -3 -13 -9


13 -5 -8 -11

E. Data for Health Policy – Total data shows nothing,

segments show everything

Project Title: RNC Medical Care

Base Size - Sorted by Total Total Seg1 Seg2 Seg3 Seg4

121 32 20 37 32

Constant 62 61 63 67 54

Affordable Long Term Care plans available 4 8 -12 3 13

Health care plans for families with dependents ... designed & affordable 3 4 -5

3 8

Pre-existing conditions ... not a reason to deny insurance 3 6 3 -3 6

Health insurance ... available to all upon if/when THEY choose 3 -6 -4

15 1

Health savings accounts ... allowed ... & receive tax breaks 2 -6 1 14 -3

Obamacare ... improved ... more affordable 2 3 -19 1 15

Health insurance ... not mandated under penalty 2 -3 6 6 -1

Emergency care (life threatening) never be denied 2 -2 -2 10 -3

Premiums and deductibles ... reasonable & affordable 1 8 1 -4 -1

Youth Health Plans for Students/Young Adults ... designed & available 0 4 -18

-5 15

Employer-offered plans available to workers again 0 6 -5 3 -6

Government employees have SAME health insurance options as citizens -1 4 -2

-1 -5

States monitor health care services in the state for quality -1 -11 14 -1 -1

Performance scores made public to citizens of each state -1 -13 7 3 2

Patient medical records standardized across systems to improve quality -2 -8 4

-3 3

Self insured groups ... encouraged to promote competition -2 5 -2

-8 -3

Buy an insurance plan from the best source ... even if out of state -3 4 0

-10 -2

Failing health care facilities penalized severely or closed -3 -9 16 -8 -4

Insurance companies ... allowed to compete across state lines to lower costs -4 6 -5

-11 -6

Health care FRAUD ... severely punished, treated as a felony -6 1 -3

-9 -10

Total Seg 1 Seg 2 Seg 3 Seg 4

Segment 1 - Affordable, like its always been 121 32 20 37 32

Constant 62 61 63 67 54

Premiums and deductibles ... reasonable & affordable 1 8 1 -4 -1





-11 -6


15 1


Patient medical records standardized across systems to improve quality -2 -8 4

-3 3





Segment 2 - Knowledge about services made public 121 32 20 37 32

Constant 62 61 63 67 54







-5 15



Segment 3 - I can get it when I need it, and how I need it 121 32 20 37 32

Constant 62 61 63 67 54


15 1


Emergency care (life threatening) never be denied 2 -2 -2 10 -3


Self insured groups ... encouraged to promote competition -2 5 -2

-8 -3



-9 -10

Buy an insurance plan from the best source ... even if out of state -3 4 0

-10 -2


-11 -6


Segment 4 - Available, affordable, for young & for old 121 32 20 37 32

Constant 62 61 63 67 54


-5 15



Health care plans for families with dependents ... designed & affordable 3 4 -5

3 8




-11 -6


-9 -10

8. By way of a personal history

I was not a particularly good graduate student at Harvard University, during the period of study, September 13, 1965 at 10am to the end of 1968. I finished January 10, 1969 at 11am A year and a half before, June, 1967, when I started looking for a thesis that I could do, my professor, SS Stevens, Professor of Psychophysics, said to me: “Howie, you’re not an elektroniker (viz., someone who knows AC from DC and won’t blow up the equipment). Choose something YOU can do, like taste or political polling.” Well, I began with taste, discovering about the deep-seated preferences of people for food, preferences which gave the world a lot of choice. Call it the Prego Period And now I guess I end with the Inner Psychophysics of Government and Politics, political polling using the same idea of a distribution of underlying preferences, not for pasta sauce, but for civil matters.’ Call it the Polity Period. What an arc of life. From tomato pieces to civil & world peace.

a new political science.4

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