A New Narrative on

Mekong Hydropower Development Wilson Center, April 14, 2016

Transboundary river, 6 states

Half length in China but Lower Mekong supplies 82% of water**

Monsoon climate: Extremes of wet and dry, annual flood pulse”

Source: Asia Maps

Mekong characteristics

China’s Upper Mekong Dams Number of Dams: 20 Already completed: 7 Under construction: 4 Final completion: 2035 Power generation: 31,460 MW Total cost: $17.3bn USD Relocated: >100,000 Total reservoir size: >50 km3

Xiaowan dam is 2nd highest in the world 270m; reservoir size ½ of all newly added reservoir

Map: International Rivers

The Lower Mekong 150+ dams under construction or planned Regional/Transboundary landscape Uneven development Laos: 28,000 MW Cambodia: 10,000 MW No coordination Ad-hoc “sales” approach Mekong River Commission UN Watercourse Convention Bilateral diplomacy Map: WLE Mekong

MEKONG DELTA

12% of Vietnam’s total area

Discharges 100 miles3 /year

Population: 22 million

DELTA FACTS

Population density: 7x

avg of Mekong basin

Canals: 60,000 miles

Dikes: 9,000 miles

Waterworks: 13,000 miles

DELTA PRODUCTIVITY

o 2.6 rice crops/year,

o 25 million tons of rice (53%)

o 70% of national fruit crop

o 74% of Vietnam’s aqua-products

Source: MRC Technical Paper #24, Sept. 2009

Tonle Sap Lake

Southeast Asia’s largest lake

Doubles size during monsoon

Nursery for >200 fish species

Birthplace of Khmer empire

Source: The Cambodia Herald

Source: Chiang Rai Bulletin, July 2013

Source: Suthep Kritsanavarin

Source: Intralawan, A., Wood D., Frankel R. “Economic, Environmental, and Social Impacts of Lower Mekong Hydropower Development.” Mae Fahluang Univeristy, 2015.

Revising the Costanza report: • Considers actual flow of income to host country (assumes 70% to operator, 30% to national government • Uses a 3% discount rate for natural resources • Uses new fish catch data from Laos and Cambodia (not available at time of Costanza report) • Values catch of wild fish at market prices

Source: Intralawan, A., Wood D., Frankel R. “Economic, Environmental, and Social Impacts of Lower Mekong Hydropower Development.” Mae Fahluang Univeristy, 2015.

Source: Pittock J., Orr S., Chapagain A, Dumaresq D. “Dams on the Mekong: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources.” Australian National University, 2012. Hydropower Development.” Mae Fahluang Univeristy, 2015.

Main Points Countering the domino theory

Xayaburi and Don Sahong mitigation

Mekong River Commisssion research produces results

NGO pressure produces change

China Factor

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Government

√ Developer

√ Site

√ Fuel

√ Buyer

√ Financing

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Regional Off-takers China: Current power glut Myanmar: 5X potential Thailand: Flagging economy Cambodia: Energy security Vietnam: 12% YOY energy growth From 36GW->50GW->100GW PM Dung: “No new coal” Per capita energy use is 1/5 US Structural obstacles Energy subsidies Safeguard compliance

Impacts of Hydropower development with photo – explain nexus DISCUSSION