a new hope? mission 29 & the b jpgrid91.com/pdf/reports/mission29_bjp.pdfbihar has seen relative...

MALAYSIA:A NEW HOPE?

MISSION 29 & THE BJP


TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary

Bihar

Recent Developments

1

3

3

Arunachal Pradesh & Manipur 5

7

10

Goa

8

BJP's prospects in upcoming state elections

BJP's consolidation

Congress Mukt Bharat and its effects

11

Bengal

12

Gujarat

Tamil Nadu

Kerala

Odisha

12

14

15

17


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1

On the evening of July 26, 2017, Nitish Kumar resigned as Bihar Chief Minister (CM), signaling the end of

the rainbow alliance forged between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) and the

Indian National Congress (INC). Kumar had earlier cited corruption charges against his deputy, Tejaswi

Yadav, son of RJD supremo for his resignation. Notably, the Bihar CM was sworn in again, in a time-span of

24 hours after the BJP, which was the primary opposition party in the state extended support to the JDU

and became a part of the government. A number of allegations were made by the parties involved in the

alliance, ranging from claims of horse-trading and opportunism of the JDU, which had received lesser

number of seats as compared to its former ally in Bihar, the RJD.

Similar situations have arisen in various states across India, with respect to the BJP's perceivable usurping

of power by the means of political defections and social engineering. This report highlights the various

methods employed by the BJP to gain power in states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, and Goa.

The rising clout of the BJP with its successive victories in almost every region of the country have raised

concerns about the perpetual weakness of the political opposition as well as the supposed use of money

power to lure legislators in the favor of the center-ruling party. BJP General Secretary Amit Shah’s political

strategies and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pan-India popularity can be regarded as primary factors for

the mercurial rise of the right-wing party. The reports also shed light on the ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’

(Congress-free India) agenda of the BJP while elaborating on the effects such a consolidation is liable to

have on the political apparatus and investment in India. Further, the report also forecasts the states that are

likely to vote for or against the BJP in the upcoming state elections in 2017-18.


GLOSSARY OF MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES IN INDIA

2


3

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

In the third most populous state in India, a coalition of parties was formed to take on the BJP, that had seen

a resurgence before the state elections of 2015. Regional parties JDU and RJD, that were at loggerheads

for decades came together with the INC to form a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (Grand Alliance), to take on the BJP.

Following elections in the state, RJD achieved the status of the single-largest party, winning 80 seats in the

243 seat State Legislative Assembly. The JDU came in second with 71 seats, while the BJP and INC received

53 and 27 seats respectively. Thus, the grand alliance was responsible for the second major defeat for the

BJP in recent times after the centre-ruling party comprehensively lost the Delhi state elections, the same

year to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Nitish Kumar was sworn in as Chief Minister (CM) and RJD-Chief Lalu

Prasad Yadav’s son, Tejaswi Yadav was made Deputy CM.

BIHAR

Newly-elected CM Nitish Kumar and his deputy Sushil Modi

Approximately two years into running the government, the Grand Alliance was rattled following corruption

allegations leveled against the Deputy CM Tejaswi Yadav. A First Information Report (FIR) was filed against

Tejaswi in relation to the misallocation of Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) hotels

when Lalu Yadav was Railways Minister in the central government. Cases were also filed against IRCTC

Managing Director PK Goyal and Lalu’s wife, Rabri Devi in connection with the alleged corruption scandal.

The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) also conducted searches at 12 places in Patna, Delhi, Gurugram

and other locations across the country. Following the filing of the FIR, Nitish Kumar, who until now had

projected a staunch anti-BJP stance, demanded the resignation of Tejaswi from the post of Deputy CM.

However, the RJD leadership rejected this demand and insisted that the BJP was exercising a political

vendetta against the ruling party in the state, with the intention seizing power. The CBI has notably been

utilized by various central governments to settle scores with political rivals.


4

Given that Nitish Kumar as CM enjoyed a clean image, the allegations of corruption against his deputy are

perceived to have raised concerns in the JDU pertaining to the future of the government. Further, taking

into account that following his resignation on July 26, the BJP instantly declared its support to the

government leading to the swearing in of Kumar as CM, claims were made by the RJD and INC about the

whole affair being orchestrated by BJP President Amit Shah and his party colleagues in Bihar. Speculations

were rife after Nitish Kumar had painted a lotus, the electoral symbol of the BJP, at a local book fair in state

capital Patna in February 2017. However, the incumbent CM had denied any plans of splitting with the

Grand Alliance at that time. Several RJD and INC leaders have accused Nitish Kumar of being opportunistic

and aligning with the center in times when opposition unity is weakened due to constant defections and the

rising power of the right-wing BJP.

In response to repeated provocations by the RJD-INC combine, the Bihar CM had cited that secularism

cannot serve as a substitute for corruption and that a better equation with the center was in the interest of

Bihar, given the streamlining of funds delivered to the state from the central treasury. Notably, although

Bihar has seen relative development in the past few decades under the JDU-BJP rule, it still remains one of

the most backward states in the country. Therefore, it can be said that the BJP under the alleged pretext of

better state-centre relations, corruption-free governance and a free-hand for Nitish Kumar as the senior

member of the Bihar coalition ensured that the Bihari political veteran was roped in.


5

In the northeastern part of the country, where the BJP had no influence whatsoever before Amit Shah was

made party President, the centre-ruling party utilized defections and social maneuvering to outsmart its

rivals, particularly the INC in states such as Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. The strategic defection of

Himanta Biswa Sarma from the INC to BJP following accusations of nepotism that were leveled by him

against former Assam CM Tarun Gogoi, who was at one time his mentor in the INC led to serious

ramifications for the INC. The formation of the Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in May 2016, to

increase the footprint of the BJP in the northeast, under convenor Sarma has reaped major dividends for

the party.

ARUNACHAL PRADESH & MANIPUR

In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP is perceived to have initially orchestrated a rebellion within the ruling INC,

leading to the formation People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA). The PPA, after a few months, again faced a

similar revolt in the party ranks consequently leading to the defection of 33 out of the 43 PPA Members of

Legislative Assembly (MLAs) deserting the tyro party to join the BJP. The PPA had earlier proposed Takam

Pario’s name as the new CM of Arunachal, however following his swearing a surprise lay in store for the

PPA with Pema Khandu, diverting 33 members of his own party to form a majority faction and subsequently

managing to be elected as state CM. Khandu emphasized on the need for economic development of the

state, which has severe connectivity issues, as the primary reason for his departure from the INC and then

the PPA. In Arunachal as well, prospects of better central funding and internal machinating led to the

downfall of the government and the INC.


6

In Manipur, after the recently held elections, the BJP, which had done a considerable amount of grassroots

electoral work in the state, came in second with 21 seats in the 60 member state assembly. The ruling INC

managed to secure the status of the single-largest party by winning 28 seats. Importantly, the BJP never

had any electoral influence in Manipur prior to the elections. Minor political parties in the state thus

became power brokers following the declaration of results. With the assistance of Biswa Sarma, convenor

of the NEDA, the BJP ensured that it contested all 60 seats in the state, fighting the elections alone without

the support of the Naga People’s Front (NPF), a party which it allied with in Nagaland. Constant blockades

that had held the state to ransom were also highlighted by the BJP, which promised to end the scarcity of

essential commodities if elected to power. Further, taking into consideration the possibility of an internal

dissent, the BJP did not declare a CM candidate before the elections. After the counting of ballots was

completed, Biswa Sarma led a team of local BJP leaders and established contact with the NPF and Lok

Janshakti Party (LJP) that received four and one seats respectively. Further, the BJP also managed to

garner the support of four MLA’s of the National People’s Party (NPP), thus increasing its tally to 30 seats,

following which it staked its claim to form the government in Manipur for the first time since independence.

In Manipur as well, the INC claimed that several of its MLA’s were contacted and offered bribes by BJP

functionaries while some were detained against their will in their offices by BJP members. Thus, despite

being unable to secure the status of the single largest party in Manipur, the BJP consolidated its position in

the state following elections by using defections and its centre-ruling status to defeat the INC.

N.Biren Singh: BJP's first CM in Manipur


7

In Goa, where the BJP has been in government multiple times, the right-wing party again did not manage to

gain the requisite seats for government formation, losing out to the INC which won 17 seats. The BJP

secured 13, while minor local parties such as the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Goa

Forward Party (GFP) won 3 seats each. The BJP had earlier faced an internal rebellion, with Goa-Rashtriya

Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief Subhash Velingkar forming his own outfit, the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM).

The RSS is the ideological parent of the BJP. The RSS Chief had earlier opposed the grants provided by the

Goa government to schools run by the Catholic Church and had demanded the mandatory inclusion of local

languages such as Konkani and Marathi in the primary school syllabus in the state. Despite, becoming the

single-largest party in the state, the INC was unable to form an alliance with minor political parties and

could not even gain 3 more seats, required for government formation. Senior INC leader, Digvijay Singh

who was tasked with getting the GFP and MGP on board, was unable to do so, leading to both minor

political parties aligning with the BJP. The transfer of Manohar Parrikar from the Union Defense Ministry to

Goa as CM played a vital role in BJP’s victory in the state. Thus, the BJP utilized various measures to acquire

the support of minor political players in Goa while ensuring that the allies demand to reinstate Parrikar as

CM was met.

GOA


8

GUJARAT

The Rajya Sabha elections for Gujarat became a focal point for heightened tensions between the BJP and

INC, the two national parties in the country. The elections that were held on August 8, 2017, were expected

to be a simple affair where the BJP would win two seats and the INC one. However, the candidature of

senior INC leader and political secretary to INC President Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel, was challenged by

the BJP by the fielding of Balwantsinh Rajput in the elections. The intentions of the BJP to disallow Ahmed

Patel a fifth consecutive term in the Rajya Sabha were bolstered following the allegedly orchestrated

defections of five MLAs from the INC to the right-wing party, reducing the INC strength in the state

assembly from 56 to 51. The resignation of senior Gujarat-INC leader and former CM, Shankarsinh Vaghela

from the party dealt another blow to the fortunes of the INC before the Rajya Sabha elections. Further,

state elections are likely to be held in December 2017, where the INC was confident of unseating the BJP

government led by Vijay Rupani. The Patel and Dalit agitations in the state had pressured the BJP to sack

former CM Anandiben Patel and had raised concerns on the BJP’s future in the western state after former

CM Narendra Modi's departure.


9

Following the defection of five MLA’s to the BJP and the resignation of Vaghela, as is common practice

before a pivotal election, the INC moved 42 of its MLAs to a supposedly secure location in Bengaluru.

Further, the INC had alleged the None of the Above (NOTA) option had been introduced in Rajya Sabha

elections, to negatively influence Ahmed Patel’s chances of getting re-elected. However, the Supreme

Court refused to stay the NOTA option in the elections. Furthermore, the Income Tax Department (IT

Department) conducted raids at the residence of Karnataka Minister DK Shivakumar, who was allotted the

responsibility of managing the security of the MLAs in Bengaluru. IT officials recovered approximately 1.5

million USD in cash from the Eagleton Golf Course Resort, where Shivakumar had boarded the INC MLAs.

The loss of Patel in the upcoming elections was likely to lead to several unfavorable outcomes for the INC,

given that the leader’s inability to retain his seat was likely to have a direct effect on the morale of the INC

cadre in the state of Gujarat in the lead-up to the state elections. Patel’s defeat might have also led to a

power vacuum in the INC, given the political veteran’s standing in the party and his proximity to Sonia and

Rahul Gandhi. Moreover, the revolt and defections within the party were claimed by the INC to be related

to Amit Shah, and his political vendetta against Patel, specifically for the multiple cases ‘Fake Encounter’

cases filed by then INC-led central government against the incumbent BJP President. However, Patel won

the elections after two MLAs votes were disqualified. While Ahmed Patel's election to the Upper House will

prove as a shot in the arm for the INC, the party faces an uphill task in the state assembly elections without

Shankersinh Vaghela and other MLAs who defected to the BJP.


10

TAMIL NADU

While the BJP has had no say in the politics of the southern state of Tamil Nadu, following the demise of J

Jayalalithaa, and the power struggle between two factions of her party AIADMK led by her associate,

Sasikala and the one led by former CM O Panneerselvam, speculations were rife, that the BJP might be

moving in with its tacit support for the Panneerselvam-led faction. According to sources in the BJP, the

national party is betting big on the merger of the two AIADMK factions, and the formation of its own

political base in the state. The BJP has already begun its campaign to educate voters in Tamil Nadu about

the achievements of the BJP government at the center and connect with the masses by propounding its

standard policies such as the total prohibition of alcohol, early civic polls, and betterment of education

standards. BJP sources have also stated that PM Narendra Modi shares a distinct warm relationship with

Panneerselvam and has urged the AIADMK veteran to merge with the E Palaniswami faction while keeping

out the Sasikala family, that has faced several allegations of misappropriation of party funds and other

corruption allegations. Further, the BJP might be looking at Tamil Nadu as a lucrative state, with respect to

the 2019 general elections, with an eye on inducting a merged AIADMK within the National Democratic

Alliance (NDA), the ruling coalition led by the BJP at the center. In the case that these political maneuvers

prove beneficial for the BJP, the centre-ruling party will be able to increase its influence in south India.

Notably, the BJP has one Member of Parliament (MP) from Tamil Nadu.


11

BJP’S PROSPECTS IN UPCOMING STATE ELECTIONS The states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are set for elections by the end of 2017, while Madhya

Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and several northeastern states will go to polls in 2018. The

BJP is expected to do considerably well in all the above-mentioned states.

In the upcoming elections in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP will be counting on the serious corruption charges

leveled against the incumbent CM, Virbhadra Singh to backfire on the INC. Further, the rise of Anurag

Thakur, a 42-year old MP, and son of former CM Prem Kumar Dhumal, as a youth leader and active

parliamentarian might infuse confidence in the party ranks in Himachal. While Dhumal is likely to lead the

campaign in the state, Thakur will play a crucial role in connecting with voters and gaining the support of the

youth. In Himachal as well, the INC has accused the BJP of cornering its CM, Virbhadra Singh with ‘fake’

cases of corruption and disproportionate wealth. Further, given that Himachal Pradesh is a swing state and

votes alternately for the INC and BJP every five years, the BJP might achieve a single-party majority in

2017.

Despite the fact that the BJP has remained in power in Gujarat for consecutive decades, the party in recent

times has faced severe challenges in the form of the Patel agitation and Dalit protests that were witnessed

in 2016. The Patels, who are the dominant and most affluent community in the state, began agitating

demanding reservations under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) in early 2016. Their protests turned

violent leading to the arrest of prominent Patel community leader, Hardik Patel. The community is said to

have been disaffected by the high-handedness of the BJP government, specifically CM Anandiben Patel.

However, the government in the state with its contacts in the Patel community was able to fracture the

agitation by providing the community several perks excluding its demands for reservations. In the Gir-

Somnath district, a few Dalits were flogged by an extremist Hindu group for transporting cows. The incident

led to a country-wide outrage, as the political opposition moved in to paint the BJP government as anti-

minority and anti-Dalit. While both the communities remain extremely important for the BJP and its

arithmetic for the upcoming elections, the fault-lines seen in these movements have helped BJP retain its

hold over the state. Further, as mentioned above the defections of INC MLAs combined with the

resignation of Shankarsinh Vaghela from the party’s fold might further weaken the INC, the primary

opposition in Gujarat.


12

BJP'S CONSOLIDATION The exponential rise of the BJP in regions where the party was termed an outcast has surprised many

political observers. Accusations of communalization of voters by propagating the ‘RSS agenda’ with a stress

on Hindu nationalism have been made by regional political parties. May it be Bengal, Kerala or Odisha, the

BJP has a keen interest in consolidating its presence in each and every state. The methods employed by the

BJP have differed from state to state but it has managed to achieve a respectable percentage of votes in

several constituencies. While the BJP has not yet managed significant electoral gains in the form of seats in

the states mentioned above, the RSS has continued to forward its agenda and indirectly benefit the BJP by

indulging in aggressive campaigning with a touch of Hindu nationalism.

BENGAL Mamata Banerjee has been one of the senior-most and most vocal critics of the government, may it be her

accusations of witch-hunting against the BJP in the CBI’s investigations against her party men in the

Saradha chit fund case or with regards to communal riots in multiple locations in the state of Bengal,

Banerjee has continued to target the right-wing party and its allegedly communal policies. BJP’s mercurial

rise in Bengal based on a combination of promised developmental agenda and the utilization of Hindu

nationalism to spur religious and patriotic sentiments might be cited as the reason for Banerjee’s

opposition. A weakened local opposition in the form of the aging Marxist party and other communist outfits

coupled with a leader-less INC is likely to have helped the BJP carve out a place for itself in certain areas of

the Bengali heartland. Issues such as illegal immigration from Bangladesh, the state government’s supposed

appeasement of the Muslim minority and corruption allegations against the Trinamool Congress have

further aided the BJP in stregthening its presence in Bengal, as an alternative to the traditional political

parties.

Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee with members of the Muslim community


13

The BJP has been quick to highlight instances of lawlessness in Bengal. Giving credence to this argument,

were the controversial communal riots in Malda, Basirhat, and Dhulagarh, that were claimed by the BJP to

be directed at the Hindu population in Muslim-majority areas. Accusations of unfair appeasement of the

Muslim population have surfaced time and again, with Banerjee’s allegedly soft approach towards

communal riots in Muslim-dominated areas. The RSS in response has continued its groundwork, to test

waters in Bengal and build a vote-base, loyal to the party. Banerjee is also known to have walked the extra

mile to gain the support of the Muslim community that forms approximately 27 percent of Bengal’s

population. The BJP has also used demands of more representation from the Nepali-speaking Gorkhas and

their calls for a separate Gorkhaland state in an attempt to corner the TMC government in Bengal. The

division of the state into Bengal and Gorkhaland is liable to be more beneficial for the BJP, given its growing

base in Kolkata and the presence of an ally in Bimal Gurung and his Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) in

Darjeeling. While the BJP has not accepted the GJM’s demand for Gorkhaland, it has continued to put the

onus of the Banerjee government for an expedited decision. Notably, the TMC is against dividing the state.

The BJP’s significant gains in the Northeast and specifically in neighboring Assam are liable to have raised

concerns in Bengal about a similar situation in Bengal. Leaders such as MP and Union Minister, Babul

Supriyo and Rupa Ganguly have been torch-bearers for the BJP’s campaign in Bengal. These leaders along

with several other local leaders of the BJP under the Bengal BJP Chief, Dilip Ghosh have protested against

minority appeasement, corruption, deteriorating law and order situation, nepotism and political violence.

Notably, the BJP’s vote percentage during the general elections of 2014, had reached a personal milestone

of 17.5 percent, while it dipped to 10.2 percent in the State Legislative Assembly elections in 2016.

Bengal BJP leader Rupa Ganguly courting arrest


14

KERALAAnother state where the BJP has covered considerable ground but has not managed to secure significant

electoral gains is Kerala. Kerala as a state has long been under the rule of either the CPI(M) and its

communist allies, or the INC. In the recent past, as witnessed in Bengal, the RSS has grown in stature by

getting involved in socio-cultural programs while highlighting the achievements of the BJP government at

the center. Further, the turf wars between the BJP and CPI(M) have received extensive media coverage,

specifically, incidents originating in the northern Kannur district.

Over the years, the BJP is known to have employed several measures to garner support in Kerala, and

currently, the stretch from Kochi, Ernakulam to Thiruvananthapuram can be identified as the belt from

where BJP gets its votes. Surprisingly, the RSS, BJP’s ideological parent, has the highest number of ‘Shakhas’

(units) in the state of Kerala. Under Mission 29, the BJP is liable to target the Malayalam-speaking state,

given that it remains one of the last bastions of the Communists. The RSS and communists have since

decades been involved in a bitter battle for supremacy in Kannur district, the epicenter of political violence

in Kerala. Retaliatory killings had become a monthly affair in 2016, as political violence surged in the

district. The RSS increased its presence in northern Kerala and specifically in Kannur, following the

migration of traders allied with the right-wing organization at the time of the communist surge in Kerala.

Moreover, communal violence was regularly recorded from Thalassery constituency following the

institutionalization of the RSS in northern Kerala, between Hindus and Muslims. The current political war

between the Red and Saffron brigades in Kerala has turned more into a propaganda battle, with the

RSS/BJP out to challenge the ideology that has been deep-rooted in the state’s liberal culture.

The RSS, due to its traditional presence in the state

and a better understanding of regional politics, is

supposed to have taken over from the BJP, in the

recent past, following the leveling of corruption

allegations against the political party’s state General

Secretary, MT Ramesh. Ramesh allegedly received

kickbacks for the development of a medical college

in Palakkad district. The BJP has blamed the CPIM

for fabricating charges against Ramesh, to divert

attention from the political murders of its workers

and vice versa. The recent murder of an RSS activist

in Thiruvananthapuram was raised by the BJP and

RSS as the prime reason for demanding President’s

rule in the state. On the other hand, the Pinarayi

Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has raised

concerns with regards to the BJP fanning communal

violence in the state to cover up the corruption

allegations against its own General Secretary and his

associates.


15

ODISHAOdisha remains one of the least developed states in the country. The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Naveen

Patnaik, who has been CM for four terms, has been in power in the state for decades. Political parties in the

state have not as yet been able to challenge Patnaik’s dominance in Odisha. That said, the BJP has slowly

but steadily increased its footprint in the state, specifically in the urban areas of Odisha. While the

supposed policies employed by the BJP in neighboring states such as Bengal are unlikely to have any impact

on the voters of Odisha, the BJP has been persistent in sending its electoral message through to the rural

voters in the coastal areas of the state, where most of the population resides. The crucial coastal districts

also contribute the highest MLAs to Odisha's 147-member State Legislative Assembly. The BJP which won

a meager 10 seats in the state assembly elections of 2014 and received approximately 18 percent of the

vote, performed exceedingly well in the recently held Panchayat (Village Council) elections, a prime

indicator of the state’s voting pattern. Following the declaration of results, the BJP won 297 seats, second

only to the BJD with 473 seats, in the 853 councils that went to polls. In the Panchayat elections of 2012,

the BJP had managed only 36 seats. The credit for the BJP’s exceptional performance in the Panchayat polls

was given to Union Minister and local BJP leader, Dharmendra Pradhan, who dedicated a substantial

amount of time, campaigning in the state while inviting BJP CM’s from the neighboring states of

Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh to address election rallies. Before the elections, a 90 percent vote share

for the BJD was predicted by district collectors across several districts in Odisha.

The BJP’s outstanding showing in the Panchayat polls is said to have resonated in the BJD camp, with

concerns being raised about the future of the party and the leadership of CM Patnaik. Factional feuds came

out in the open when the BJD’s national spokesperson, Jay Panda was charged by its chief whip Dhenkanal

Satpathy of orchestrating a coup against his own party on the directions of the BJP. Satpathy also alleged

that the BJP was likely to cause defections from the BJD and call for early snap polls before the term of the

Patnaik government ends in 2019. Certain leaders in the party have also accused Patnaik of being ignorant

and inaccessible to grassroots-level party workers. The bureaucratic stranglehold on several districts in the

state of Odisha has allegedly hampered multiple development projects in the eastern coastal state.

The above-mentioned discontent brewing against CM Patnaik and the state’s bureaucracy is unlikely to

harm the BJD’s short-term interests and have an effect on the 2019 state elections. The Patnaik

government’s policies such as one rupee-a-kilo scheme, free bicycles to girls, mobile phones and laptops for

meritorious students have struck a chord with the rural and tribal population that is likely to remain

committed to the BJD. While the BJD has remained in power for 17 years in Odisha, the people of the state

can be assumed to be in favor of a regional party such as the BJD as opposed to the BJP in a majority of

districts in the state.


16


17

'CONGRESS MUKT BHARAT' AND ITS EFFECTS ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ or ‘Congress-free India’ was a slogan coined by the BJP in the aftermath of its

historic victory in the general elections of 2014. The INC is the oldest party in India and played a pioneering

role in the freedom struggle against the British. That said, following its approximately 60-year rule over the

country, the party finds itself amidst a crisis after its massive loss in the 2014 elections. The INC still

remains the one of the two national parties and primary opposition in the country, with a dedicated voter-

base in almost every state.

The BJP in cohesion with the RSS has continued to secure voters across the country promising development

and highlighting various negative issues with regards to the incumbents. On the national level, the BJP

government has projected an image of stability where the final decisions are taken by the PM-Party

President duo who have apparently divided responsibilities of campaigning and administration respectively

amongst themselves. Amit Shah’s strategic moves have unseated or rattled several state governments and

brought the BJP to power in Uttar Pradesh, the most coveted state in the country, due to the number of

seats it contributes to Parliament. Shah has furthered the BJP’s prospects in a number of states by

connecting with local party leaders and workers on the ground. The BJP President’s electoral strategies

have thus revolved around strengthening the party’s roots in states where the BJP has had no influence. His

political policies have reaped many dividends for the BJP in states such as Assam, Haryana, Maharashtra,

Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, states in which the BJP had no electoral prospects a decade

ago.

Rahul Gandhi allegedly sleeping in Parliament


18

PM Modi and the BJP rode to power at the center in 2014 following a loss of confidence in the INC in the

aftermath of the unearthing of various corruption scandals, involving top functionaries of the grand old

party of India. The BJP has benefited immensely from the perception that the INC, in its current state, is

inherently corrupt. The right-wing party is known to have persisted with its agenda of cornering the INC

with corruption allegations and misappropriation of funds while in government. The BJP has also moved

forward with ‘Congress-free India’ agenda by underscoring the alleged appeasement of minorities by the

INC in several states as well as the center. The BJP's rhetoric had a distinct effect on the general elections,

leading to a supposed polarization of votes in favor of the BJP. This strategy was used by the party in the

elections to follow and made to converge with the aforementioned agenda. While the agenda is directed at

keeping the INC out of power, concerns have been raised with respect to the BJP/RSS’s goal of establishing

a ‘Hindu Rashtra’ (‘Hindu Nation’) by the neutralization of all political opposition. That said, the BJP as a

political entity has denied all charges with respect to diluting the secular nature of India’s constitution. The

means supposedly employed by the BJP to target the INC have however been under scrutiny, given that

they range from coordinating defections, utilization of money-power, communalization and other strong-

arm tactics.

On the other side of the political divide in India, the INC has faced multiple external and internal setbacks.

The INC’s biggest predicament is the fact that it has lost its on-ground party cadre in a number of states and

lacks senior or charismatic leaders to direct its members. Further, the senior leadership, in INC President

Sonia Gandhi and Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, has failed to instill a sense resurgence after the 2014

electoral debacle. Rahul Gandhi’s repeated gaffes and inability to politically maneuver the party has led to

several defections, including powerful politicians from various states. Leaders such as Himanta Biswa

Sarma from Assam, Shankarsinh Vaghela from Gujarat and Chaudhary Birender Singh from Haryana, all left

the INC, citing the inaccessibility of the Gandhi’s, the rule of dynasties in the INC and a genuine absence of

booth-level organization within the party. The INC’s stratagem that pertains to bringing up the issue of

secularism and the BJP’s alleged disregard for the same, has led to no substantial gains, either on the state

or central level for the party. The electoral triumph of the 'Grand Alliance' can be cited as the only

exception.

While keeping the above mentioned in mind, the BJP goal of a ‘Congress-free India’ remains a distant

achievement, particularly due to the INC’s traditional vote-base and its status as the only-alternative in

several states to the BJP. The negatives of a further collapse of the INC are unlikely to be felt in the states of

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, where the party enjoys a considerable influence and a number of

major local leaders. Further, the INC continues to have the backing of its age-old allies such as the Rashtriya

Janata Dal (RJD), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), National Conference (NC) and ideological support

from parties including, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM),

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and left parties amongst others. If the BJP intends on challenging and

demolishing every opposition party in the country under its agenda, remains debatable. That said, states

such as Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Meghalaya, though on the radar of the BJP are

not likely to be under BJP-rule in the coming days. Rather than a complete decimation of the INC, the BJP

would want the INC under its current leadership to pose a credible threat to its fortunes. This would be

more beneficial for the BJP, given that it would not result in a consolidation of anti-BJP votes for a third

party, as seen in the Delhi state assembly elections, where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) secured 67 out of

the 70 seats available.


19


20

In the event of a complete consolidation of the BJP and dismembering of the INC in India, the BJP is liable to

remain as the only national party in the country. This would inadvertently extend BJP’s tenure at the center,

unless the party commits a significant economic blunder or loses the confidence of the population,

specifically that of the majority Hindu community. Given that in the coming days, the BJP intends on

removing the INC from the country’s politics, political stability will be maintained at the center, in such a

hypothetical scenario. This will correspondingly benefit states with a BJP-led or BJP-coalition government,

as the flow of central funds in Delhi to respective states will get streamlined and will not face obstacles.

Under a consolidated BJP rule, policies for conducting business across various sectors might be in cohesion

with the center’s, thus reducing the bureaucratic red-tape seen in the states, a by-product of centre-state

rivalry. The Modi government’s apparent concentration on economic reforms (Demonetization/GST) is

likely to increase investor interests as seen after the BJP’s ascendancy to the seat of power in Delhi.

Further, the optimism seen in business leaders belonging to India following the BJP’s victory in Uttar

Pradesh provides a decent indicator of the business community’s relative support for the BJP.

EFFECTS ON BUSINESS

0

15

30

45

60

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17INFLOW OF FDI IN INDIA IN BILLION USD

FY-FISCAL YEAR (FY 17-UNTIL DECEMBER 2016)


21

EFFECTS ON POLITICAL SETUPHaving said that, the BJP’s rise is expected to have certain adverse effects on India’s democracy. Given that

the BJP achieves its aim of countervailing the INC, the BJP government which will be in power at the center

and in several states might turn authoritarian, a charge that has already been leveled by the opposition

against the party and PM Modi. Defections and orchestrated voting for parliamentary positions might act to

further weaken India’s vulnerable democratic structure. This scenario might, in turn, give rise to a two-

three party system in the coming years, with the BJP as one of the major players. The RSS that has become

more politically active since the 2014 general elections, might lobby for amendments to the Constitution,

specifically with regards to the secular credentials of the union. This might lead to a supplementary

marginalization of the Muslim community in the country which is liable to lead to communal tensions. In the

absence of a credible opposition, an exchange of opinions seen in the parliamentary system of democracy

might cease, correspondingly resulting in authoritarianism. Thus, while Mission 29, might be the first

priority for the BJP, it remains highly unlikely that the right-wing party will achieve its aim in the short-term.

Especially in states where the BJP lacks support, the party will have to continue challenging regional satraps

and the INC to fulfill its mission.

CONTACT US C 1003, ONE BKC, G BLOCK BANDRA-KURLA COMPLEX BANDRA (EAST) MUMBAI-400051INDIA

T: +912262364401 E: [email protected] W: www.grid91.com

a new hope? mission 29 & the b jpgrid91.com/pdf/reports/mission29_bjp.pdfbihar has seen relative...

Documents