a new engineering profession is emerging: decision coach

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  • A new profession is emerging: Decision Coach INFORMS Analytics Conference April 15 -17, 2012 Huntington Beach, California Stephen Barrager, Ph.D. Baker Street Publishing, LLC steve@bakerstreetpublishing.com
  • I started my career in aerospace and computers. Second job - IBM360First job - Apollo. Thats me -- to the right of the analog computers. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Third job - Lead Teaching Assistant for Professor Howards probability and decision analysis courses at Stanford.Professor Howard Graduate Student Barrager 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • I hope you learn the following thingstoday: A new profession is emerging: decision coaching There is a core knowledge set required for strategic decision making: process, systems analysis, and applied probability. In addition, decision coaches must master facilitation skills, project management, and organizational learning. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Success in any enterprise consists ofdoing three basic things well. Strategic Decision making is only one of the Leadership Decision tasks of an executive. It usually takes but a small fraction of his Making time. But to make decisions is the specic executive task. Pe t e r D r u c ke r, T h e E f f e c t i ve Manager 1966 Operational Management There is a lot to be gained if we can improve strategic decision (execution) making. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • A McKinsey survey of 2,327 executives from the full range ofindustries, regions and functions revealed the followinggoals of strategic decision making. (In percentage of totaldecisions.) Expansion into new products, services or geographies 34 Investment in existing products, services or geographies 15 Building new infrastructure 12 Mergers and acquisitions 11 Maintenance of existing infrastructure 5 Organizational change for other reasons 21 From How companies make good decisions, The McKinsey Quarterly, December 2008 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Generally there are 3 groups involved in importantstrategic decisions: decision makers, stakeholders, andexperts. Decision Makers Act Stakeholders Experts 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Scene from Moneyball, Columbia Pictures 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • What is missing? Facilitation? Process? Tools? Decision Makers Stakeholders Act ProjectManagement? Experts Knowledge Management and training? 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Who is missing? Decision Makers Stakeholders Act Experts ? 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • A decision coach brings several things to the table. ProjectProcess Tools Facilitation Management Knowledge Management and Training 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • If you cant describe what you are doing asa process, you dont know what you aredoing. W. Edwards Deming 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Two processes are fundamental. The Decision AnalysisProcess and the Collaborative Design Process. Decision Deterministic Appraisal Modeling and Probability framing and and value of sensitivity assessment basis Information development analysis and calculationsSituation calculation 1 2 A B C Act 3 4 5 Decision Systems Probability Value of Theory Analysis Theory information Decision Makers Stakeholders and Experts Framing Alternative Generation Analysis Synthesis Act Stakeholders and experts 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • The Decision Analysis Process combines thepower of: Systems Probability Analysis Theory Decision Theory in a normative way. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • The Collaborative Design Process brings in thepeople. Decision Makers Alternative Act Framing Analysis Stakeholders and Experts Generation Synthesis StakeholdersCoach Experts 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • The Collaborative Design Process emphasizesframing and design. Systems Probability Analysis Theory Decision Framing Theory DesignDecision Analysis is the analytical backbone of the Collaborative Design Process. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Inappropriate framing is the root cause of most baddecisions. Here
  • it
  • is! Find x. x 3 cm 4 cm Too often we get the right answer to the wrong question. 2012 Baker Street Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
  • Design is the intersection of analysis andsynthesis. We want this intersection to bebig. Design Alternative Analysis FramingStakeholders and Experts Generation Synthesis

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