A New Agenda for Security and Strategy

CH 16

Strategy in The Contemporary World

Introduction

• High Politics – War, Peace, Nuclear Deterrence and Crisis Control, Arms Control, and Alliance Politics

Introduction

• Low Politics- The Environment, The management of Scarce Resources, and Efforts to Control Population Issues

Which is More Important?

• During the Cold War high politics dominated the National Security Agenda!Low politics not considered a threat to national security!

• Despite Major World Issues – Nuclear Fallout -> Partial Ban Treaty 1963– Oil Shocks of the 1970’s -> Conservation is

important!

1980’s Brought Change

• Why Did This Happen?

– Realist suggest with the evaporation of the major concerns with the Cold War, Lesser Issues “appear” to become more important

– Neo-Institutionalist would argue the growth of Structures like IGO’s and INGO’s help push global issues like deforestation, AIDS, and the ozone depletion onto security agenda’s

– Can any other theories be used to explain this change?

The 21st Century

• Saw a return of high politics consuming the majority of the security agenda.

• This was due to terrorist attacks in New York, London, Madrid, and Bali.

• Some once considered low politics remained on the Security Agenda, Such as Globalization

The Need for a Conceptual Framework

• Why should low politics be considered a threat to national security?– The International Peace Research Institution have

demonstrated a link between resource scarcity and violence

– Rapid population growth or depopulation growth can create resource dilemmas.

– Damage to the environment can kill!• Ex: The destruction to the Ozone layer can cause

cancer, blindness, and even death.

The Use of Military for Low PoliticsCreates Big Problems

• Already used in cases of natural disasters, but labeling as security issues would come with cost.

• Resources are diverted from preparing for war to humanitarian projects.

• The presence of military can create more problems then it helps.

• How can the military help with AID’s or reduce green house admissions?

Low Politics… That Make the Agenda!

Population Issues

• Most of the population growth will occur in the poorest countries– They are already strained to the limits for food,

housing , and education.• Most of the population growth elsewhere in the

world is taking place in urban areas.– Resulting in “Mega Cities”

• Most of the additional population will be young.– This could create an inability to provide basic

services to the populations

More Issues With Population

– Population decreases in the west will create difficulties in filling the armed forces

– Health care and pension plan demands in the aging population will make it difficult for industrialized nations to afford large defense budgets.

– In the west there is a rising aversion to causalities shaping national strategies• As birth rates decline people everywhere will be less

likely to see their only child sacrificed in a military adventure

Commons IssuesA Little of Something Never Hurt Anyone

• The Tragedy of The Commons• Ex: Salmon Fishing

• Deforestations, Water Depletion, and Carbon Dioxide Levels

• Tragedy of the Commons occurs because of international failure to protect to environment or its resources

• These issues can shape war strategy!– Ex: Concerns for disrupting a tight oil market has

slowed the response against the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons

Direct Environmental Damage!

Disease

• The major concern is for a long overdue outbreak of a deadly strain of influenza

• Resistant Strains• Dormant Disease that

may arise due to deforestation.

The Seven Diseases That Remain a Major Concern

• (HIV/AIDS) – Pandemic proportions are like to spread into India, Russia, and China.• Tuberculosis *• Malaria*• Hepatitis B and C• Influenza *

– H5N1 (Avian Flu)

• Diarrhoeal Diseases (results of contaminated food and water)• Measles

Five Reasons for the Increase Threat of Infectious Diseases

• 1. Displaces refugees living in primitive conditions breed and spread diseases• 2. Unprotected sex and intravenous drug use• 3. Modern technology• 4. Land use practices–Destroying–Reforestation (Lyme Disease)

• 5. International Travel (2 million people a day)

Sensitivities Vs. Vulnerabilities(Avian Flu Vs. SARS)