a globalized dairy market · 10/8/2014  · ‒u.s. dairy producers ‒dairy processors and...

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Managed by Dairy Management Inc.™ A Globalized Dairy Market The U.S. Dairy Industry: We’re “All In” International Grocers Association Atlanta, GA October 8, 2014

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Page 1: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Managed by Dairy Management Inc.™

A Globalized Dairy Market

The U.S. Dairy Industry: We’re “All In”

International Grocers Association

Atlanta, GA

October 8, 2014

Page 2: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Today’s Topics

2

• About USDEC

• Growth factors and prospects

‒ Milk supply assets

‒ Export commitment

‒ Portfolio expansion

• Final thoughts

• Q & A

Page 3: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

• Independent membership organization

• 119 members

‒U.S. dairy producers

‒Dairy processors and cooperatives

‒Trading companies

‒Allied companies and organizations

• Created in 1995 by U.S. dairy farmers

• Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia

U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)

3

Page 4: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

4

Representation Around the World

Provide market insights and technical

support to local buyers and end-users

• China

• European Union*

• Japan

• Mexico, including

Central America

• Middle East &

North Africa

• South America

• South Korea

• Southeast Asia

• United States

• Vietnam

Page 5: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Factors Behind Growth in U.S. Milk Production

• Higher yields per cow (despite lower number of cows)

• Steady growth in dairy farm efficiency‒ Lower production costs (reduced

investment/overhead per cow)

‒ More financial stability and commitment

• Year-round production with very little seasonal variance‒ Volume

‒ Nutrient composition

• Production across the USA5

Page 6: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

U.S. Leads the World in Milk Volume Growth

6Source: USDEC

EU-28

US

NZ

Australia

Argentina

-1,500

1,200

3,900

6,600

9,300

12,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

(000 M

T)

Cumulative milk production growth since 2005

EU-28 US NZ Australia Argentina

Page 7: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Source: USDEC - USDA

Value

(millions)

% change

vs. 2008

Volume

(MT)

% change

vs. 2008

SMP/NDM $2,050 +44% 554,752 +38%

Cheese $1,355 +138% 316,556 +141%

Whey proteins $1,210 +98% 544,584 +50%

Lactose $574 +213% 341,747 +84%

Butterfat $354 +30% 91,952 +2%

Ice cream $177 +208% 61,089 +141%

Fluid milk & cream $36 +84% 86,991 +78%

TOTAL $6,831 +78%

What We Export (2013)

7

Page 8: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Source: USDEC - USDA

Value

(millions)

% change

vs. 2008

Mexico $1,425 +53%

Southeast Asia $1,247 +68%

Middle East/North Africa $827 +79%

Canada $764 +57%

China/Hong Kong $750 +283%

Japan $304 +46%

Korea $303 +200%

Caribbean $193 +18%

TOTAL $6,831 +78%

Where We Export (2013)

8Source: USDEC - USDA

Page 9: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jul-14

(bil

lio

n lb

s.,

to

tal m

ilk

so

lid

s)

Incremental growth in U.S. production and exports since 2003

incremental production growth incremental export growth

Increasing Percentage of “New” Milk Produced

Since 2003 for Export

Source: USDEC, NMPF

68% to Exports

9

Page 10: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Record U.S. Dairy Exports in 2013

10

0

420

840

1,260

1,680

2,100

$0

$1,500

$3,000

$4,500

$6,000

$7,500

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Volu

me (

thousand m

t, T

SB

)

Valu

e (

mill

ions)

U.S. Exports - value and volume

Value Volume 19

Exports in 2013:

$6.7 billion

1.8 million MT

Page 11: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Export value + 31% last year

+ 21% p.a. over 10 years (CAGR)

Export volume + 19% last year

+ 12% p.a. over 10 years (CAGR)

Export % of production 15.5% up from 11% in 2008

U.S. global share[SMP, WMP, cheese, butterfat, whey]

17% up from 11% in 2009

2013 Saw Outstanding Growth

11

Page 12: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Most U.S. Products Hitting Higher Export Shares

12

Product 2014

(7 mos.)

2013 Avg.

‘04 – ‘08

NDM/SMP 59% 58% 42%

Cheese 7.4% 6.3% 1.9%

Dry sweet whey 53% 56% 42%

Lactose 55% 73% 56%

Butterfat 8.6% 10.7% 4.4%

Page 13: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Diverse, Growing Base of Markets for U.S. Dairy

Products

Source: USDEC, USDA

62% to Exports

13

U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS (in millions) (JAN.-DEC. 2013 AND % CHANGE VS. PRIOR YEAR)

CANADA

$569 m, +21%

MEXICO

$1,429 m, +16%

CARIBBEAN

$216 m, +1%

SOUTH

AMERICA

$277 m, +9%

MIDDLE EAST/

NO. AFRICA

$788 m, +83%

CHINA

$706 m, +70%

SO. KOREA

$301 m, +34%

JAPAN

$304 m, +7%

SOUTHEAST ASIA

$1,284 m, +39%

OCEANIA

$258 m, +17%

Page 14: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

14Source: GTIS, USDEC

+7.2

+8.5+8.5

+7.2

25%

28%

17%

5%

24%

0.00

0.08

0.16

0.24

0.32

0.40

EU-28 NZ US Australia Other

pe

rce

nt

2013 Aggregate Export Volume (share) SMP, WMP, cheese, butterfat, whey

2. Rising U.S. Presence in Global Dairy Trade

Page 15: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Most Products Moving UpSeven Months 2014 vs. Seven Months 2013

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Lactose IceCream

Whey SMP/NDM

Milk &Cream*

Butter Cheese All Value

-6%

6% 7%

11%

16%

22%

31%

22%

Volume (000 MT)

*(mil. liters)

15198.5 42.5 335.1 353.0 58.6 47.9 231.2 $4,615 mil

Page 16: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

U.S. Exports of CheeseEleven Months 2013 vs. Eleven Months 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

World Mexico Korea MiddleEast

Japan CentralAmerica

SE Asia China Caribbean

19%

24%

21%

37%

16%

10%

6%

16%

13%

Volume (000 MT) 285.5 72.9 44.7 39.3 28.2 15.4 14.1 12.2 11.8

Page 17: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

17

Closing

Page 18: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Questions and Answers?

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Page 19: A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014  · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and cooperatives ‒Trading companies ‒Allied companies and organizations •Created in 1995

Thank you

Vikki Nicholson, Senior Vice President

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[email protected]