a global research initiative in support of a successful ...€¦ · a global research initiative in...

A global research initiative in support of a successful implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda

Carlos A. Nobre

National Institute for S&T for Climate Change

Brazil-IIASA Workshop Brasília, DF, 25 April 2017

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Holistic

Inclusive

Indivisible

Aspirational

1st phase: Leaving no one behind (2030+)

2nd phase: Sustainable future for all (2050+)

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Holistic

Inclusive

Indivisible

Aspirational

1st phase: Leaving no SDG behind (2030+)

2nd phase: Sustainable future for all (2050+)

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IIASA Research“Science must be at the heart of this process so as to help achieve synergies and avoid

conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”

IIASA Partnerships

Nexus Solutions Partnership

The World In 2050

Global CommonsCD-LINKS

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Integrated Systems approach to SDG-Pathways

We lack a truly integrated, comprehensivequantitative understanding of sustainabledevelopment pathways, accounting for the inter-linkages between the economy, technology, environment, climate, human development and planetary boundaries.

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Strategic objective of TWI2050

The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic development within planetary boundaries

Source: Rockstrom, 2014

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How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space

“Safe space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP

Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward sustainable futures

The World in 2050 (TWI2050)

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Scenario Narratives

Integrated Models

Pathways

Possible Unified Analytical Approach

Source: Nakicenovic et.al., 2000

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The World in 2050 (TWI2050)

2016 #12Nakicenovic 2015 #12Nakicenovic

● AIMES● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Future Earth● German Development Institute (DIE)● Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)● Indian Institute International Futures● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)● Joint Research Centre, European Commission● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)● Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Stanford University ● Stockholm Resilience Centre ● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● The City University of New York (CUNY)● Tsinghua University● UN Population Division● UN DESA● UNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)● University of Hamburg● World Bank

The World in 2050 “Consortium”

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Vision: Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UN etc.)

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→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

→ New values and norms

Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

→ 2050: Sustainability transformation

The World in 2050 (TWI2050)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries



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The World in 2050 (TWI2050)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Parallel Working Session A3Earth Preconditions

Chair: Carlos Nobre, CEMADENRapporteurs: Joern Schmidt, CAU and Frank Sperling, IIASA

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Food (SDG 2), Water (SDG 6) and Energy (SDG 7) Security

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Planetary Boundaries

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Indicators for TWI2050

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SDG Indicator Target Value 2030 2050 2100 Remark

13 Cumulative carbon budget

(GtCO2)

2,553

[2,464-2564]

3,042

[2,765-3093]

3,108

[3,028-3,174]

Pathway consistent

with ≤ 2°C warming

14 Ocean acidification

(PB: Global mean saturation of

aragonite)

2.75 2.75 2.75 Link to SDG13

indicator (CO2

concentration) –

Implications for

stringency

15 Forest Cover Change (%) Zero Net Deforestation Scale

Global landcover converted to

cropland (%)

≤ 15% Link w/ biodiversity

considerations

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Reporting Template (desirable)Please fill the template for your cluster, using the given examples as guidance

2. Identify possible key linkages within the SDG cluster and to other SDGs2.1 Which linkages exist? 2.2 How strong are the linkages (e.g. Nilsson et al. 2016)?E.g.

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From SDG To SDG

Score of Interaction

Explanation

13 14 +3 Climate change/ocean acidification threatens life below water

13 15 +3 Climate change threatens life on land

14 13 +2 e.g., protecting coastal systems and adaptation14 15 +1 e.g., land-based pollution15 13 +2 e.g., end deforestation; restore biomes15 14 +1 e.g., land-based pollution

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Reporting Template (desirable)Please fill the template for your cluster, using the given examples as guidance

2. Identify possible key linkages within the SDG cluster and to other SDGs2.1 Which linkages exist? 2.2 How strong are the linkages (e.g. Nilsson et al. 2016)?E.g.

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From SDG To SDG

Score of Interaction

Explanation

13 9 -1 Reducing climate change can reduce the options of energy access

14 2 -1 Protecting ocean life can reduce oceanic fisheries

15 2 -1 Protecting biomes can reduce the expansion of farming

8 13 -2 Boosting consumption for growth can counteract climate change

13 3 +1 Reducing emissions promotes less pollution15 6 +1 Halting deforestation and restauration improves water quality


Brazil

OVERALL SDGPERFORMANCE Globalrank Score orvalue Regional average

SDGIndex 52 (of149) 64.4 / 1 0 0 57.8 / 1 0 0

Comparison with other development metricsH u m a n Deve lopment Index , 2014 75 (of188) 0 .76 /1 0 .7 /1Subjective Wellbeing,2015 16 (of149) 7/ 1 0 6.1/ 1 0GDP per capita, PPP, 2015 66 (of 149) US$15690 US$12912Global Compet i t iveness Ind., 2016 75 (of140) 4.1/ 1 0 3.9 / 1 0Env i ronmenta l Perf. Index , 2016 46(of 180) 78.9 / 1 0 0 71.7/ 1 0 0

AVERAGE PERFORMANCE BYSDG

SDG9

SDGDASHBOARD

SDG INDEX ANDDASHBOARD -GLOBAL REPORT

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COUNTRYPROFILES

Brazil in 2050 Project


Brazil

OVERALL SDGPERFORMANCE Globalrank Score orvalue Regional average

SDGIndex 52 (of149) 64.4 / 1 0 0 57.8 / 1 0 0

Comparison with other development metricsH u m a n Deve lopment Index , 2014 75 (of188) 0 .76 /1 0 .7 /1Subjective Wellbeing,2015 16 (of149) 7/ 1 0 6.1/ 1 0GDP per capita, PPP, 2015 66 (of 149) US$15690 US$12912Global Compet i t iveness Ind., 2016 75 (of140) 4.1/ 1 0 3.9 / 1 0Env i ronmenta l Perf. Index , 2016 46(of 180) 78.9 / 1 0 0 71.7/ 1 0 0

AVERAGE PERFORMANCE BYSDG

SDG9

SDGDASHBOARD

SDG INDEX ANDDASHBOARD -GLOBAL REPORT

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COUNTRYPROFILES

Brazil in 2050 Project

Extreme Poverty: $ 1.90/day (less than 5%)

GINI Index (54.7)

Energy CO2 emissions (2.2 ton CO2/capita)Vulnerability index (0.1)

Access to improved water (98.1%)Access to improved sanitation (82.8%)

Homicides (per 1000,000) (26.2)Corruption perception index (38)...



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Brazil in 2050 (BRI2050)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

What sustainable future we want for Brazil in 2050?

What are likely pathways to reach that vision?

Major obstacles to achieve SDG’s in 2030?

THANK YOU

[email protected]

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Sustainable Development Pathway (SDP)

• SDP integrates human dimensions of world development targets with Earth system dynamics,

• SDP recognises the implications of human pressures in the Anthropocene, the risk of Earth system tipping elements and the need to achieve world development within a stable and resilient Earth system

• SDP recognises the inter-dependency between social, economic and environmental SDGs

• Different tracks are possible to achieve the SDGs• 2050-2100 outlook: inclusion of dynamics and feedbacks of

geochemical and environmental processes in the biosphere that regulates the long-term stability of the Earth system

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Consultation process on the SDP

• Living narrative SDP document that evolves throughout the project life-time

• Engage stakeholders beyond the scientific community – civil society, policy, businesses

• Solicit expert knowledge• Reflect national and regional perspectives• Assisted online consultation and on-site

stakeholder dialogues are planned• Increase awareness of the complexity of the

challenge

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SDG13 targets

13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries 13.2 Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning 13.3 Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning 13.a Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible 13.b Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth and local and marginalized communities

1Acknowledging that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the global response to climate change.

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Paris Agreement…further informs SDG 13 ambition!

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SDG15 targets

15.1. By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands, in line with obligations under international agreements 15.2 By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally 15.3 By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world 15.4 By 2030, ensure the conservation of mountain ecosystems, including their biodiversity, in order to enhance their capacity to provide benefits that are essential for sustainable development 15.5 Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species 15.6 Promote fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources and promote appropriate access to such resources, as internationally agreed 15.7 Take urgent action to end poaching and trafficking of protected species of flora and fauna and address both demand and supply ofillegal wildlife products 15.8 By 2020, introduce measures to prevent the introduction and significantly reduce the impact of invasive alien species on land and water ecosystems and control or eradicate the priority species 15.9 By 2020, integrate ecosystem and biodiversity values into national and local planning, development processes, poverty reduction strategies and accounts 15.a Mobilize and significantly increase financial resources from all sources to conserve and sustainably use biodiversity and ecosystems 15.b Mobilize significant resources from all sources and at all levels to finance sustainable forest management and provide adequateincentives to developing countries to advance such management, including for conservation and reforestation 15.c Enhance global support for efforts to combat poaching and trafficking of protected species, including by increasing the capacity of local communities to pursue sustainable livelihood opportunities 31

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SDG 14 targets

14.1 By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans 14.3 Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific cooperation at all levels 14.4 By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and end overfishing, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and destructive fishing practices and implement science-based management plans, in order to restore fish stocks in the shortest time feasible, at least to levels that can produce maximum sustainable yield as determined by their biological characteristics 14.5 By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, consistent with national and international law and based on the best available scientific information 14.6 By 2020, prohibit certain forms of fisheries subsidies which contribute to overcapacity and overfishing, eliminate subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and refrain from introducing new such subsidies, recognizing that appropriate and effective special and differential treatment for developing and least developed countries should be an integral part of the World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies negotiation 14.7 By 2030, increase the economic benefits to Small Island developing States and least developed countries from the sustainable use of marine resources, including through sustainable management of fisheries, aquaculture and tourism 14.a Increase scientific knowledge, develop research capacity and transfer marine technology, taking into account the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Criteria and Guidelines on the Transfer of Marine Technology, in order to improve ocean health and to enhance the contribution of marine biodiversity to the development of developing countries, in particular small island developing States and least developed countries 14.b Provide access for small-scale artisanal fishers to marine resources and markets 14.c Enhance the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and their resources by implementing international law as reflected in UNCLOS, which provides the legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and their resources, as recalled in paragraph 158 of The Future We Want 32

a global research initiative in support of a successful ...€¦ · a global research initiative in...

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