a glimpse on climate variability and change in...
TRANSCRIPT
Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHA
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
A glimpse on climate variability and change in Switzerland
Simon Scherrer Climate division, MeteoSwiss
2 ASG Rhine - Snow & Glacier Workshop ¦ 26 Nov 2015
Simon Scherrer, MeteoSwiss
Contents
(1) observed
climate variability & trends temperature
precipitation
snow
fog
sunshine
Extremes?
(2) future climate change temperature
precipitation
snow
Extremes?
(3) Climate Services: National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS)
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Temperature…
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global (HadCRUT4)
Temperature change CH & global time series, changes 1864-2014 and outlook 2015 [°C]
Switzerland
CH:global = 2.3:1
cold 1880s
warm late1940s
warm last 30 years
tem
pe
ratu
re a
no
ma
ly [
°C]
wrt
mean
18
64
-19
00
2°C target:
half way reached!
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Temperature change Switzerland deviations from norm 1961-1990 (°C) (1961-2014; 2015: 1.1.-31.10.)
2015 Jan-Oct
Rank 4
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0°C-line 1961-2015
150-200m increase per °C warming
winter: +325m (600 825m)
(+60m/10J)
autumn: +200m (2325 2525m)
(+38m/10J)
(+74m/10J)
spring: +400m (1750 2150m)
(+72m/10J)
summer: +375m (3200 3575m
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Frost days 1959-2014 station abs.Trend rel.Trend
[ind] [u/10yrs] [%]
BER -4.80 -24.7
SIO -1.75 -10.3
DAV -5.36 -15.4
LUG -4.48 -82.4
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Summer days 1959-2015
station abs.Trend rel.Trend
[ind] [d/10yrs] [%]
BER 3.85 61.6
SIO 5.85 53.2
DAV 2.10 398.6
LUG 6.54 63.4
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Hot temperature extremes (1) «Intensities» Swiss mean from 9 stations [°C], 1901-2015
hottest day
hottest week
annual mean
an
om
aly
[°C
]
wrt
1901
-20
14 p
erio
d
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Hot temperature extremes (2) «Frequency» Swiss mean from 9 stations [°C], 1901-2015
nu
mb
er
of
days
exce
ed
ing
90
th, 9
5th, 9
9th p
erc
en
tile
in
JJA
doubling (or more) for
95th, 99th percentile events
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precipitation…
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2015: a dry year on the Plateau? Bern / Zollikofen
very
dry
large
range
possible!
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Mean annual precipitation 1971-2008
Isotta et al. (2013)
boundaries
Rhine catchment
[mm]
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Revisiting annual precipitation trends
Southern Alps
Northern &
Central Alps
Plateau &
Jura
Scherrer et al. (IntJClim, 2016)
+ 5-30%/100yrs
sign. (p<0.05)
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Winter- & summer trends
+
−
5-40%/100yrs
-4-5%/10yrs
Winter (DJF) Summer (JJA)
+
sign. (p<0.05)
Scherrer et al. (IntJClim, 2016)
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Changes heavy daily precipitation Intensity and frequency, 1901-2014 (annual)
max.
daily sum
per year
(Rx1day)
# q99
events
per year
91% show pos. trend
92% show
pos. trend
Scherrer et al. (JGR, in revision)
intensity
frequency
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D. Gerstgrasser
snow…
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Days with snow pack measurement data (bold) and reconstruction (thin lines)
Scherrer et al. (2013)
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Trends: Days with snow pack relative 20-yr running trends [% / 10J], bold: sign. 5% level
altitude [
m ü
M]
recovery
500
1000
1500
2000
strongest
decreases
pure reconstruction
Scherrer et al. (2013)
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Internet
sunshine duration…
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Sunshine duration Switzerland Deviations (% from norm 1961-1990) (1961-2014)
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Sunshine duration high altitude: Jungfraujoch
sunshin
e d
ura
tion (
h)
Year: ±0h / ±0% (no dimming/brightening)
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Sunshine duration Swiss Plateau: Bern
sunshin
e d
ura
tion (
h)
Year: +200h / +12%
DJF: +42h / +22% (p=0.03) MAM: +79h / +17% (p=0.07)
JJA: +35h / +5% (p=0.33) SON: +23h / +6% (p=0.52)
«Dimming»
«Brightening»
24 ASG Rhine - Snow & Glacier Workshop ¦ 26 Nov 2015
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Sunshine duration 1884-2014 Zürich/Fluntern, ratio wrt. norm 1961-1990
(courtesy of M. Begert)
1961-2014
today’s level similar to end of 19th century
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D. Gill
(High) fog…
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Reconstructed fog series 1902-2012 Zürich/Fluntern, September − March
Scherrer et al. (2013)
green: classical fog observation (horiz. visibility <1km)
blue: fog (more than half a day)
rot: fog (full day)
black: fog days (more than half a day) with fog dispersal
num
ber
of
days
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«High fog» changes «half day fog» 1991-2009 vs. 1961-1990
+17% +1%
-13%
-38% -28%
-25% -37%
strong declines in March and autumn
Scherrer et al. (2013)
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Climate change Europe 2070-2099 (A1B)
Source: Swiss Climate
Change Scenarios CH2011
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
°C
-36
-28
-20
-12
-4
4
12
20
28
36
%
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Less frost days?
31 ASG Rhine - Snow & Glacier Workshop ¦ 26 Nov 2015
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Frost days (Tmin ≤ 0°C)
mean number of frost days per year [days]
today
(1980-2009)
A1B-Scenario
~2035
A1B-Scenario
~2060
A1B-Scenario
~2085
Strong decline of the number
of frost days until end of century
Increased glacier and
snow melt
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No snow on Swiss Plateau?
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Changes in days with fresh snow Zubler et al. 2013
today
(1980-2009) A1B-Scenario
~2035
A1B-Scenario
~2060
A1B-Scenario
~2085
mean number of days with fresh
snow per year
relative change
Loss of days with fresh snow by
50-80% on the Swiss Plateau &
foothills of the Alps, loss by 20-
30% in the Alps
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A longer growing season?
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today
(1980-2009)
A1B-Scenario
~2035
A1B-Scenario
~2060
Duration of growing season
Mean duration of growing season [days]
Unter A1B ist eine
Verlängerung der
Vegetationsperiode um
etwa 2 Monate möglich
A1B-Scenario
~2085
A lengthening of the growing season
by about two months is possible
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More heat waves?
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today
(1980-2009)
Tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20°C)
mean number of tropical nights per year [days]
A1B-Scenario
~2035
A1B-Scenario
~2060
A1B-Scenario
~2085
Hot summer 2003:
7 tropical nights in Basel
around 2085 it could be 20-30
on average. Health risks!
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today
The emission path taken is essential number of tropical nights
2085
today
no intervention strong reduction technical progress
39 ASG Rhine - Snow & Glacier Workshop ¦ 26 Nov 2015
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National Centre for Climate Services gegründet am 16. November 2015
Das Netzwerk für
Klimadienstleistungen
des Bundes
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Simon Scherrer, MeteoSwiss
Das NCCS… das Netzwerk für Klimadienstleistungen des Bundes
• koordiniert die Erarbeitung und Verbreitung von
Klimadienstleistungen
• fördert als Schnittstelle zwischen den Produzenten und
Nutzern den Dialog und die gemeinsame Entwicklung der
Klimadienstleistungen
• sorgt dafür, dass die Klimadienstleistungen auf die
Bedürfnisse der Nutzer ausgerichtet sind
• stellt Klimadienstleistungen in verständlicher Form zur
Verfügung
www.nccs.ch
41 ASG Rhine - Snow & Glacier Workshop ¦ 26 Nov 2015
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Themenschwerpunkte
Klimaszenarien
Wasserkreislauf
Waldfunktionen
Schadorganismen
Gefahrenprozesse
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• The Alpine climate is influenced by different air masses
(oceanic/continental air) and thus very variable by nature
• The Alpine climate has already changed (half way of 2°C
target reached) and will change due to climate change
• The amplitude of future change stronly depends on
decisions taken in the near future
• The new NCCS wants to facilitate the use of climate
information for research, applications and decision making
Summary