July 2016

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A generation apart: Were younger people left behind by the EU

referendum?

DATA TABLES

Background

On 23rd June 2016, the UK voted in a referendum on whether to leave or remain in the

European Union. One of the starkest differences in voting intention in the referendum to

emerge was that by age, with around two-thirds of under 35s looking likely to vote to

remain and a similar number of over 55s looking set to vote to leave.

In this context, CoVi in partnership with FES conducted a research and analysis exercise to

explore this divide and how it would play out in the referendum. We analysed the

background to these attitudes and assessed the success (or lack thereof) of the campaigns

in reaching out to younger people.

You can watch the visual executive summary here and read the full report here.

Methodology

Further primary research was conducted in the form of sentiment and keyword analysis of

media headlines. We chose online sources as these are accessed more by younger people

than press or broadcast. Furthermore, social media is clearly an increasingly important

mechanism for sharing news and messages during election campaigns. As articles in large

online news websites are often shared on social media with the headlines given prominence

on someone’s feed, these provide useful insight into the tone and content of the public

debate.

We chose six sources for these headlines. The Guardian, Telegraph and Mail Online were

selected because they are the three most accessed press websites by 15-34 year olds, the

BBC was chosen because it is the most accessed news site in Great Britain, and Huffington

Post UK and Buzzfeed were chosen as two exclusively online outlets marketed at younger

people.

We sourced articles via an online search of the term "EU referendum" on these news outlets

on a weekly basis throughout the three months leading up to the referendum (23rd March

to 23rd June). We analysed a total of 4,399 articles across the 6 outlets which featured the

phrase for the term "EU referendum" in either the headline or body of the article and

estimate that this number is comprehensive of at least 90% of all news articles online across

the six outlets. The gap is accounted for where articles are not identified by searches and

human error.

We then coded issues mentioned in the titles using some of the most important issues

indicated by voters. We also identified all the people mentioned in the headlines by name

(but not by title such as “Prime Minister”) and all the negative and positive words contained

in the headlines.

For more information about this please contact Katy Owen, Programme Manager, on

katy.owen@covi.org.uk.

July 2016

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Table 1 Mentions of people in online headlines about the EU referendum

from The Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC, Huffington Post UK

and Buzzfeed 23/3/16 – 23/6/16

Person’s name Count

David Cameron 433

Boris Johnson 256

Jeremy Corbyn 128

Nigel Farage 123

Barack Obama 121

Michael Gove 116

George Osborne 84

Jo Cox 54

Donald Trump 36

Nicola Sturgeon 36

Iain Duncan Smith 28

John Major 27

Adolf Hitler 24

Gordon Brown 23

Theresa May 23

Alex Salmond 18

Mark Carney 18

Vladimir Putin 17

Sadiq Khan 16

Tony Blair 14

Quentin Letts 12

Angela Merkel 10

Chris Grayling 10

Ed Miliband 10

Jean Claude Juncker 10

John McDonnell 10

Priti Patel 10

Harriet Harman 9

Nicky Morgan 9

Ruth Davidson 9

Bob Geldof 8

Steve Hilton 8

Queen Elizabeth II 8

Donald Tusk 7

Frank Field 7

Michael Heseltine 7

Tom Watson 7

Winston Churchill 7

Alistair Darling 6

Angela Eagle 6

Arron Banks 6

Baroness Warsi 6

David Beckham 6

David Miliband 6

George Soros 6

Jacob Rees Mogg 6

Jeremy Clarkson 6

Katie Hopkins 6

Ken Clarke 6

Marine Le Pen 6

Ed Balls 5

Eddie Izzard 5

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Ephraim Hardcastle 5

Margaret Thatcher 5

Victoria Beckham 5

Vince Cable 5

William Hague 5

Yvette Cooper 5

Alan Johnson 4

Alan Sugar 4

Christine Lagarde 4

Craig Brown 4

Faisal Islam 4

Hilary Benn 4

Justin Welby 4

Liam Fox 4

Lord Owen 4

Neville Chamberlain 4

Peter Bone 4

Sajid Javid 4

Sarah Wollaston 4

Yanis Varoufakis 4

Abba 3

Alex Brummer 3

Bill Clinton 3

Carwyn Jones 3

Dan Hodges 3

Dan Jarvis 3

David Petraeus 3

Hillary Clinton 3

Ian Botham 3

James Dyson 3

Jeremy Hunt 3

Jeremy Paxman 3

JK Rowling 3

John Whittingdale 3

Keira Knightley 3

Kezia Dugdale 3

Lord Guthrie 3

Nick Clegg 3

Richard Littlejohn 3

Rupert Murdoch 3

Alastair Campbell 2

Amber Rudd 2

Andrea Leadsom 2

Andy Burnham 2

Benedict Cumberbatch 2

Bernie Ecclestone 2

Bernie Sanders 2

Brendan Barber 2

Chris Patten 2

David Blunkett 2

David Owen 2

Delia Smith 2

Duke of Wellington 2

Edwina Currie 2

Emmanuel Macron 2

Enoch Powell 2

Gisela Stuart 2

Heidi Alexander 2

Ian McKellen 2

J.K. Rowling 2

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James May 2

John Barnes 2

John Oliver 2

Jon Snow 2

Josef Goebbels 2

Justin Trudeau 2

Kate Garraway 2

Katie Price 2

Leanne Wood 2

Lynton Crosby 2

Mario Draghi 2

Martin Lewis 2

Max Hastings 2

Michael Bloomberg 2

Mick Jagger 2

Natalie Benett 2

Neil Kinnock 2

Nicholas Soames 2

Nick Robinson 2

Nigel Lawson 2

Paddy Ashdown 2

Paloma Faith 2

Pat Glass 2

Penny Mordaunt 2

Peter Oborne 2

Richard Branson 2

Shinzo Abe 2

Sir Bob Geldof 2

Sir John Major 2

Soraya Bouazzaoui 2

Stephen Hawking 2

Ted Cruz 2

Theresa Villiers 2

Tim Roache 2

Vanis Varoufakis 2

William Shakespeare 2

Alan Duncan 1

Alan Patridge 1

Alan Sked 1

Bernie Ecclestone 1

Albert Einstein 1

Alesha Dixon 1

Alun Cairns 1

Andrew Bridgen 1

Andrew Davies 1

Andrew Lloyd Webber 1

Andrew Neil 1

Andrew Pierce 1

Andy Murray 1

Anish Kapoor 1

Anjem Choudary 1

Anna Chancellor 1

Anna Soubry 1

Antoine de Caunes 1

Arsene Wenger 1

Barbara Taylor Bradford 1

Baroness Williams 1

Bernard Jenkin 1

Bertie Ahem 1

Betty Boothroyd 1

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Bill Cash 1

Bill Gates 1

Bjorn Ulvaeus 1

Brian Eno 1

Caroline Lucas 1

Charles I 1

Che Guevara 1

Chris Bryant 1

Chris Deerin 1

Chris Patterson 1

Christian Kern 1

Claudia Bradby 1

Crispin Odey 1

Dalai Lama 1

Dan Hannan 1

Daniel Craig 1

David Cobum 1

David Davis 1

David Edward 1

David Jones 1

David Mundell 1

Doctor Max the Mind Doctor 1

Dominic Cummings 1

Dominic Grieve 1

Dominic Lawson 1

Douglas Carswell 1

Dustin Hoffman 1

Economy 1

Ed Davey 1

Ed Vaizey 1

Eddie Mair 1

Elizabeth Truss 1

Emphraim Hardcastle 1

Enda Kenny 1

Fed Lockhart 1

Felixstowe 1

Freddie the Wonder Horse 1

George Galloway 1

George MacDonald Fraser 1

Gerald Ratner 1

Gerald Ratners 1

Gertjan Vlieghe 1

Gruff Rhys 1

Harsimrat Kaur 1

Hilary Devey 1

Hillary Clinton 1

Jack Straw 1

Jamal Edwards 1

James Cleverly 1

James Slack 1

Jamie Dimon 1

Jamie Laing 1

Jeremy Heywood 1

Jeroeon Dijsselbloem 1

Jo Johnson 1

Joan Collins 1

Joey Essex 1

John Cleese 1

John Gillingham 1

John Hayes 1

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John Kerry 1

John le Carre 1

John Mann 1

John Mills 1

John O'Donnell 1

John R. Bradley 1

John Wayne 1

Johnny Marr 1

Jonathan Aitken 1

Jonathan Hill 1

Jonathan Le Toq 1

Kay Swinburne 1

Keir Starmer 1

Ken Livingston 1

Ken Loach 1

Kiera Knightey 1

Kiera Knightley 1

Knightley 1

Lady Sylvia Hermon 1

Laura Kuenssberg 1

Leslie Ash 1

LIam Fox 1

Liz Kenall, Priti Patel 1

Liz Kendall 1

Liz Truss 1

Lord Campbell 1

Lord Darzi 1

Lord Farmer 1

Lord Hill 1

Lord King 1

Lord O'Donnell 1

Lord Patten 1

Lord Stuart Rose 1

Lord Sugar 1

Lord Wigley 1

Louise Pentland 1

Luisa Zissman 1

Malcolm Turnbull 1

Margot Wallstrom 1

Mariano Rajoy 1

Mark Collett 1

Martin Sorrell 1

Mary McAleese 1

Mary Whitehouse 1

Matteo Renzi 1

Mervyn King 1

Michael Crick 1

Michael Eavis 1

Michael Fallon 1

Michael Forsyth 1

Michael Howard 1

Michael Portillo 1

Michel Sapin 1

Mick Hucknall 1

Nadine Dorries 1

Nathan Gill 1

Neil Hamilton 1

Nick Knowles 1

Nigel Benn 1

Nigel Cameron 1

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Norman Lamont 1

Norman Tebitt 1

Owen Paterson 1

Paul Dacre 1

Paul Marshall 1

Peter Hitchens 1

Peter Mandelson 1

Peter Sutherland 1

Philip Hammond 1

Pierre Moscovici 1

Piers Morgan 1

Pinocchio 1

Rachel Rickard Straus 1

Raymond Blanc 1

Rhodri Morgan 1

Richard Dearlove 1

Richard Haass 1

Richard Scudmore 1

Richard Woolnough 1

Robert Mugabe 1

Robert Winston 1

Rod Liddle 1

Ross Kemp 1

Sammy Wilson 1

Sayeeda Warsi 1

Shirley Williams 1

Sir John Nott 1

Sir Philip Green 1

Stanley Johnson 1

Stephen Crabb 1

Stephen Glover 1

Stephen Kinnock 1

Steve Baker 1

Suzanne Evans 1

Tayyip Erdogan 1

Tim Farron 1

Tim Loughton 1

Tim Peake 1

Tom Elliot 1

Tom Pursglove 1

Vaughan Roderick 1

Victor Meldrew 1

Viscount Astor 1

Warren Buffet 1

William Hogarth 1

William Wright 1

July 2016

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Table 2 Numbers of positive and negative words in online headlines about

the EU referendum from The Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC,

Huffington Post UK and Buzzfeed 23/3/16 – 23/6/16 (per outlet)

Website Number of positive

words

Number of negative

words

BBC 131 364

Buzzfeed 45 118

Mail

Online

335 1461

Guardian 386 922

Huffington

Post

96 323

Telegraph 364 868

TOTAL 1357 4056

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Table 3 % of in online headlines about the EU referendum from The

Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC, Huffington Post UK and

Buzzfeed (23/3/16 – 23/6/16) containing a negative or positive

word (per outlet)

Website % of headlines with a postive word

% of headlines with a negative word

BBC 16% 39%

Buzzfeed 25% 50%

Mail

Online

30% 77%

Guardian 26% 54%

Huffington Post

23% 61%

Telegraph 30% 58%

TOTAL 26% 57%

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Table 4 Ratio of negative to positive words in online headlines about the EU

referendum from The Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC,

Huffington Post UK and Buzzfeed 23/3/16 – 23/6/16 (per outlet)

Website Ratio of negative to positive words

BBC 2.78

Buzzfeed 2.62

Mail Online 4.36

Guardian 2.39

Huffington

Post

3.36

Telegraph 2.38

TOTAL 2.99

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Table 5 50 most used negative words in online headlines about the EU

referendum from The Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC,

Huffington Post UK and Buzzfeed 23/3/16 – 23/6/16

Word Count

Warn 214

Fear 119

Risk 104

Attack 78

Accuse 77

Warning 63

Anti 39

War 38

Lose 35

Threat 29

Battle 29

Wrong 26

Damage 25

Bad 24

Threaten 24

Hit 23

Row 23

Uncertainty 23

Slam 22

Cost 21

Reject 21

Stop 20

Quit 20

Crisis 20

Lies 18

Dangerous 17

Fall 16

Scaremongering 15

Divided 15

Lost 15

Fight 14

Cuts 14

Blame 14

Furious 13

Forced 13

Clash 13

Failure 13

Worst 12

Shock 12

Scare 12

Criminals 12

Racist 12

Misleading 12

Chaos 11

Worse 11

Fury 11

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Death 10

Biased 10

Concern 10

Bizarre 10

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Table 6 % of online headlines about the EU referendum from The Guardian, Telegraph, Mail Online, BBC, Huffington Post

UK and Buzzfeed (23/3/16 – 23/6/16) mentioning different issues over time

Issue code 25 - 31

March

1-7

April

8-14

April

15-21

April

22-28

April

29

April - 5 May

6 - 12

May

13-19

May

20-26

May

27 May

- 2 June

3-9

June

10-16

June

17-23

June

Immigration 7.1% 10.3% 4.2% 4.1% 7.9% 6.4% 11.5% 4.0% 9.2% 15.8% 9.4% 9.8% 6.6%

Security 20.6% 2.9% 3.2% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 8.5% 4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1% 1.7% 2.5%

Economy (non-specific)

4.3% 1.7% 6.9% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 2.7% 4.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 3.0%

Relationship with other countries

1.4% 5.1% 1.9% 6.1% 6.8% 5.7% 4.2% 2.5% 4.2% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1% 2.9%

Freedom of movement

5.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.7% 3.8% 2.8% 0.4% 5.4% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 4.0% 2.5%

Businesses/investm

ent/markets

3.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 4.4% 1.9%

Trade 1.4% 2.9% 2.3% 3.7% 7.9% 5.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.8% 2.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.2%

Specific economic sector

2.1% 5.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 9.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1%

Healthcare 3.5% 8.6% 0.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 2.4% 0.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Housing 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 3.8% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 1.7% 1.1%

Jobs 1.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.6% 1.1% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1%

Prices/household economy

3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 2.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8%

Growth/recession 1.4% 1.1% 3.2% 0.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2%

Sterling 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3%

Public spending/finances

0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 0.5%

Sovereignty 0.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%

Environment 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1%

Welfare/workers' rights/pensions

0.7% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.5%

Education 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.9%

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Taxes 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.1%

Pay 0.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Human rights 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5%

Poverty/inequality 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

Interest rates/monetary policy

0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

International development

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%