a futures toolkit approach observatory of innovation cardiff business school

A Futures Toolkit Approach

Observatory of Innovation

Cardiff Business School

3rd SC Meeting Malta 28.06.2006 2

Contents

1. Why use futures?2. Preparing for a futures exercise3. Launching futures exercises4. Summary of tools5. Individual tools (x5)6. FAQs7. Flow chart8. Further reading/links9. Case studies


1. Why use Futures?Toolkit addresses motivations and needs of regional development actors, and objective of using futures.

Illustrated by real examples Case Studies Pen Portraits


2. How can we best prepare for using Futures?

Key considerations will involve understanding the: Scope Capacity Engagement Information

Supported by Q & A


Scope of the exerciseThe scope of the exercise will be

determined by the objectives & motivation and should be clear (with timescales and

outputs defined) and realistic given resources. In particular, the extent of

information needs and availability will be important factors to consider as will the ability of the lead organisation to deliver the exercise. This latter aspect will also

influence the breadth and nature of engagement with other stakeholders.

Information & dataInformation is the foundation of a futures

exercise and its availability is critical, however, the needs of the futures exercise

will be determined by the scope of the exercise and the availability of information will be strongly influenced by resources but also by the type and depth of stakeholder engagement (as suppliers or sources of

information) and by the competency of the lead organisation to request the necessary information from other tiers of government;

academia or industry group.

Competency & legitimacyThe lead organisation in the exercise must have legitimacy or competence in terms of governance to effectively deliver the exercise. E.g. for a community organisation develop a technology strategy based on a futures exercise would not be feasible. It has neither the technical nor the policy or governance competence. The leaders of the exercise should be sure that they will be able to deliver not only the futures exercise but the implementation of the results or risk wasting a great deal of effort; resource and goodwill.

Level & type of engagement

Stakeholder engagement is at the heart of most

futures exercises. Consideration

needs to be given to the list of

stakeholders needed; the timing and depth of their involvement and

the gaps in stakeholder

support that may be apparent at the outset. The scope

of the planned exercise and the

comparative competency of the lead organisations

will influence the engagement

needed as will the ability and

willingness of stakeholders to

satisfy the information needs

of the exercise.


e.g. Scope

Determining the scope of the exercise:1. What are your objectives and motivations in conducting a futures exercise? Do these readily suggest the scope for your exercise? Are the objectives and motivations compatible with the scope or focus that you have in mind? Are you confident that you are going to achieve your objectives by focusing on the areas or topics

that you have identified for your futures exercise? 2. Do you think that you will have the resources necessary for an exercised of this scope and focus? (See also: Information & data)3. Is the scope in line with the remit, role or responsibilities of the lead organisation?

(See also: Competency & legitimacy)4. Does the scope that you have chosen lead you to a clear list of other stakeholders or actors who you

will need to engage in the exercise?(See also: Level & type of engagement)

If you answer no to any of these questions then you should spend further time confirming your objectives: clarifying the scope of the exercise; potentially extend and strengthen your partners and stakeholders group or seek additional resources to allow the required information and data to match the scope that you have decided upon..


3. Launching Futures Exercises

Toolkit will address the key steps that are needed e.g FOREN, Mobilising Regional Foresight Potential, Foresight Blueprints

Toolkit will provide model launch programmes and templates

case studies


3. Launch

1. Organisation

2. Actors & Roles

4. Necessary Inputs

5. Applying the Futures Toolkit

3. Project Management


4. Tools selection: approachMotivation and needs: typical examples6

54

32

1

Variables/issues

b

e

d

c

a

Tools for purpose

Delphi

Scenarios

Visionary Mgt

Horizon scanning

Trend analysis


Matrix of Motivations, Variables and Tools

Variables/ Issues

Soliciting expert views

Assessing key external influences/drivers for the organisation/region

Understanding current position and likely future path

Engaging stakeholders Networking and communication of key issues

Motivations Developing a new strategy in the region

Delphi Scenario buildingTrends analysis

Trends analysis Scenario buildingVisionary

management

Futures workshop

Understand the impact of external influences on the organisation

DelphiHorizon scanning

Scenario buildingFutures workshop

DelphiFutures workshop

Horizon scanning

Help the region through a period of economic restructuring

DelphiExpert panel

Scenario building Trends analysis Visionary management

Scenario building

Decide in which science and technology areas/sectors to invest

DelphiMSQA

Scenario building Trends analysis Scenario buildingTrends analysis

Scenario building

Generate widespread dialogue about the future of the region

Delphi Trends analysis Visionary management

Scenario building

Scenario buildingVisionary management

Build organisational and regional capacity to deal with the future

Horizon scanningDelphi

Horizon scanningScenario building

Scenario building

Provide anticipatory intelligence for actors in the region

Horizon scanningTrends analysisDelphi

Horizon scanning Trends analysis Scenario building

Challenge mindsets, shake off complacency

Trends analysisFutures workshop




5. Individual Tools: = 5 +

DescriptionMain usesMechanics of ImplementationTimescale


6. FAQs

What is the typical cost of a Futures

Tool? How much time will we need to

implement it? Where can be make best use of

external expertise? Etc.


7. Futures flowchart (to be updated)

Futures Context:

introduction

Tools and materialsFutures tools reports

Case studiesEtc

New strategy

Change manageme

nt

Stimulate new

thinking

Pathways and motivations

Other

Key questions

Toolkit guidanceIn pathway/situation x, suggested tools include

(e.g) (1) horizon scanning. (2) etc

Examples (case studies): (1), (2) etc

Experts providing assistance

Key requirements – process. Inputs

Implementation outline


8. Further reading Resources Links Downloads


9. Case studiesCategorised by Motivation Type of tool Region Focus/scope

a futures toolkit approach observatory of innovation cardiff business school

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