a framework for understanding food systems foresight and ... · analysis. understanding foresight...
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A Framework for Understanding Food Systems
Foresight and Scenario Analysis
Understanding Foresight
Food Systems Foresight
Food security and stability, migration, transparency
Inclusive Growth
Infrastructure and innovation
key to ag Large employer
Water use, on farm solar
Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution
Ag is key to empowerment
Food and Nutrition security
Healthy Diet
Paying for education
Sustainably feeding cities
Ag impact on biodiversity and soils
Demand on fisheries, healthy
diets
Food waste
Climate resilient ag, reducing agifood
emissions
Inclusive Growth
Governance of food systems
Food
Systems
Transformations in (agri) food systems will impact on all SDGs
Why Foresight4Food
Exercise
• Think quietly (3mins):• What does foresight mean to you?• What do think it would mean to somebody
else?• What is fundamental question you have
about foresight methodology / approaches
• Share with your neighbor (5minutes)• At the table make a list of 5 critical
questions about foresight and scenarios methodology you would like to discuss (10 minutes0
Basic Definitions
foresight: the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen
in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge dictionary)
“Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth
about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken
assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are
thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our
‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that
limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
Some Resources For Getting Started
Foresight in Context
Foresight
Governance
Systems Thinking(complexity)
Human Cognition
Deeper Inspirations
Anticipatory Governance
• Shared perspectives of what constitutes a desirable future
• Governing with a longer-term perspective for current and future generations
• Identifying and responding to drivers and trends that threaten or support desired futures• Dampening negatives
• Amplifying positives
• Exploring possible/plausible futures and creating mechanisms of resilience and risk management for different scenarios
• Being aware of and mitigating for “tipping points”
• Looking for “weak signals” that foreshadow “black swans” low probability high impact events
Framework for Understanding Foresight
Challenges of perceiving and anticipating the future
Now
Methodology
Bias
Frames
Values
Information
Human Perception and Understanding
”real” world of socio-ecological interactions
Future
Drivers
Dynamics of complex adaptive Systems
Windows on the World
turbulenceunpredictability uncertainty Noveltyambiguity
An initial framing
Dimensions of Foresight
Qualitative
QuantitativeParticipatory
Understanding the System of Analysis
Conceptual Model
Boundaries
Drivers, Trends and Uncertainties
“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”
Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect
Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact
Risks and Opportunities
Systemic Risks
Transformational Opportunities
Steam Trains Black Swans
Systemic Risks
Transformational opportunities
Computational Models and Data Sets
IMPACT - The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI)
GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere Management Model (IIASA)
MOSAICC - Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (FAO
PEM - Policy Evaluation Model (OECD)
MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeralEquilibrium Tool
CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis
PBL landuse model
FAO Stats
IFPRI Datasets
OECD agricultural Data
African Growth and Development Policy modeling consortium (AGRODEP)
World Bank Open Data
UNdata
WHO data repository
National Statistics
Models Data Sets
Scenarios
A description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.
Types of scenarios
• Predictive
• Explorative
• Normative
(Backcasting)
Different ways of mapping scenarios
Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science
Examples of Scenarios
Influencing Change (Theories of change)
Exercise
What is needed to improve the understanding, approaches and methodology for food systems foresight (5 key ideas)
Write each ideas on a separate post-it note
Sharing Structure
Outcomes Activities Key Partners
Purpose/Goal:
Necessary Resources:
Minimalist OptionCashKind
Ideal OptionCashKind
Time Line Quick Wins Moblising Adding On
Justification: