A Framework forThinking About Stability

OperationsDr. Jonathan Czarnecki

NWC MontereyJanuary 2010

Major Assumption

The demands of Stability operations are similar in nature to thoseof major combat operations with respect to planning and

execution.

The Way Operations (appear to) Work

Space

Time

Information

Energy

Mass

Force/CapabilitiesInformationLeadership/Mgmt

Operation Results

Operating Environment

Joint organization

Where:- The Operating Environment is an active system- The Joint organization is an active system- Both systems subject to entropic effects- Both interact in complex, unpredictable ways

The Three Nexuses

1.Forces- Training- Integrated Military Capabilities

2.Information- Processing- Communications- Decisions

3.Leadership & Management- Operational Staff- Sequencing/Synchronization

Nexus 1: Forces/Capabilities

Rhyme and Reason:- Built from theory of human needs- Tailored for specific environment and mission- Requires mastery of deeper operational art- Manipulation of five foundations:

- Space- Time- Energy- Mass/Matter- Information

- Complex adaptive system in a complex operating environment

Maybe this implies a

priority for our operational

tasks???

Physiological needs

Safety and Security

Love and Belonging

Self Esteem

SelfActualization

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Must solve lowerNeeds first!

Likely LimitOf Military

Support

What Stability Operations Might Provide(In Priority Order)

First Set of Deliverables: - within 24 hours of deployment• Air, Water, Food, Information• Personal Hygiene Support

(Includes Infrastructure Support – e.g. waste disposal)• Medical Support – Personal and Public• Housing Support• Public (Local) Security• Information/Communications

Second Set of Deliverables: - within 72 hours of deployment• Energy Support – e.g. electricity, streetlights• Public (Community) Security

A Possible General Purpose SSTR Capability (Unit)

HQ &HQ Staff

SecurityProvider

LocalSecurity

RegionalSecurity

NationalSecurity

GoodsProvider

InformationProvider

Personal Health

ProviderPublicHealth

Provider

ShelterProvider

Transport Engineers

Sustainment Comms

HygieneProvider

PublicEnergy

Provider

GeneralProvider

Nexus 2: Information

Who is involved?

What do they know?

How do they know?

How do they share what they know?

What do they want? What do they need?

What critical decisions need to be made and by whom?

What Does It All Mean????

Who is involved?Who are Stakeholders?

Military Command

Operating Environment

JOA, AOR, JSOA, etc.

Indigenous Population

Host Nation

Interagency

Insurgent

Insurgent

NGOs

NGOs

Press

Press

Contractor

Contractor

Terrorists

Terrorists

OtherInterestedNations

OtherInterestedNations

LocalInterestGroups

LocalInterestGroups

IntelligenceCommunity

IntelligenceCommunity

StabOps INFORMATIONQUESTIONS

• What does each party want?• How do we operationally plan in this system?

Hints and Clues

• Each party is a purposeful system• Each shares the operating environment, but perceives it differently• Each is a complex adaptive living system• Each and all must use the same basics: (mass, energy, information, space, time)• Each has its own stability domain (resilience, robustness, redundancy)

There is

No Formula

REDUCE INCOHERENCE

Decisions

Who is making them?Why are they making them?Do the decisions promote:

- Informed parties- Shared information- Coherent effort- Timely action- Adaptability

Are the decisions appropriate?- Do they fit the situation?

Are the decisions the right ones?

Nexus 3: Leadership and ManagementOrganizational not Individually focusedSeeks to reduce uncertainty in the operating environmentFocuses on management of information

- Comfort with ambiguity- Balancing too much with too little information- Distributing inevitable information overload

Continuous scanningContinuous learningCreative in foundational manipulationEthical (Moral) and Physical courage and fitnessReflection (knowing one’s self)

Observations1.Stability Operations must achieve integration of effort.

2.Stability Operations are complex in terms of:- Organizations- Environment (foundational elements, population)- Problem(s) requiring Operation 3. Stability Operations are adaptive by nature:

- Agility - Appropriateness (Fit) 4. Being complex and adaptive, these operations must:

- Be robust to achieve mission - Be resilient to adapt - Be redundant to address uncertainty 5. Leadership in Stability Operations must: - Be extraordinary, not just good - Be organizational in nature, not individual - Match the organization in character