a dying creed? the demographic contradictions of liberal capitalism

20
A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Upload: david-parsons

Post on 02-Jan-2016

234 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

A Dying Creed?

The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal

Capitalism

Page 2: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

The Rise of Demography

• Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy, culture, politics)?

• Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past• Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity?• Demographic Transition Uneven• Ethnic differentials have had political

ramifications, but are declining• Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious

makeover?• Are religious populations more resistant to

transition than secular?

Page 3: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Demography and Politics?

• Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D.

• Mormon church: 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap

• Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election

• Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist 'End of History' model

Page 4: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Q1: Secularisation

"As this book will demonstrate:

1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless,

2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004)

• Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

Page 5: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism
Page 6: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Church Attendance, 1981-2004, 10 European Countries

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1981

1990

2004

Page 7: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

6 'Secular' Societies, attendance

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1981

1990

2004

Page 8: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

4 'Secularising' Societies, attendance

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1981

1990

2004

Page 9: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Attendance by age, 2004, Catholic vs Protestant Countries

0

0.05

0.10.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.350.4

0.45

0.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

RC

Prot

Page 10: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Norway

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Norway04

Norway81

Norway90

Ireland

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Ireland04

Ireland81

Ireland90

Page 11: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

"Conservative, religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts…[heavily Mormon] Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49…Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction" – Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)

Page 12: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

17.53

22.23

12.82

6.356.547.1

3.683.362.2

3.06

5.71

2.751.67

3.3

5.02

0

5

10

15

20

25

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility among those over 45, in 10 European Countries, 1981, 1990, 2004

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

Page 13: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

17.64

22.75

12.98

3.962.61

3.37 3.953.87

2.073.68

4.74.37

2.393.56

5.25

0

5

10

15

20

25

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility in 10 European Countries, 1981, 1990, 2004, with Country Controls

1981 (EVS)1990 (EVS)2004 (ESS)

Page 14: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

12.22

14.56

10.74

0.250.140.15

2.931.310.58 1.31

4.332.96

0.571.370.13

02468

10121416

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility, 1981-2004, 5 'Secular' Countries

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

12.59

16.83

8.24

4.746.22

8.3

2.373.51

2.32 2.413.291.96

3.23.555.96

02468

1012141618

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility, 1981-2004, 5 'Secularising' Countries

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

Page 15: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Religiosity: Spain, W. Germany, Norway, Sweden, 1981-97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1981

1990

1997

Page 16: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

11.32

14.41

10.81

1.463.012.94 2.8

0.990.061.34

4.133.01

1.040.750.35

02468

10121416

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

Religiosity Sex Education Age

Predictor

Predictors of Fertility in 5 'Secular' European Countries, 1981-2004

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

12.13

16.69

8.46

2.012.294.76

2.43.92

2.27 1.633.021.76

3.174.376.49

0

5

10

15

20

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

Religiosity Sex Education Age

Predictor

Predictors of Fertility in 5 'Secularising' European Countries, 1981-2004

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

Page 17: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

12.22

14.56

10.74

0.250.140.15

2.931.310.58 1.31

4.332.96

0.571.370.13

02468

10121416

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility, 1981-2004, 5 'Secular' Countries

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)12.59

16.83

8.24

4.746.22

8.3

2.373.51

2.32 2.413.291.96

3.23.555.96

02468

1012141618

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

WeeklyAttendance

Sex Education Age

Predictor

Determinants of Fertility, 1981-2004, 5 'Secularising' Countries

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

11.32

14.41

10.81

1.463.012.94 2.8

0.990.061.34

4.133.01

1.040.750.35

02468

10121416

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

Religiosity Sex Education Age

Predictor

Predictors of Fertility in 5 'Secular' European Countries, 1981-2004

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS) 12.13

16.69

8.46

2.012.294.76

2.43.92

2.27 1.633.021.76

3.174.376.49

0

5

10

15

20

t-Stat

MaritalStatus

Religiosity Sex Education Age

Predictor

Predictors of Fertility in 5 'Secularising' European Countries, 1981-2004

1981 (EVS)

1990 (EVS)

2004 (ESS)

Page 18: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Conclusion: Secularisation

• Variation in Patterns of Secularisation• Europe has secularised in terms of church

attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling• In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries

are secularising faster, less religious (mainly Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low (5-10%) levels of church attendance

• USA has not secularised

Page 19: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

Conclusion: Fertility

• After marital status, church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility

• Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries

• In secular (Protestant) countries, church attendance insignificant, but religiosity significantly predicts fertility

• Future Research: USA, Islamic world, demographic predictions, 2000-2050

Page 20: A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html

http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html