a dow close above 11,467 signals a year end mojo run

8/8/2019 A Dow close above 11,467 signals a year end MOJO run.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found at http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

December 13, 2010 A Dow close above 11,467 s ignals a year end MOJO run.

Significantly higher US Treasury yields will be a drag on equity valuations, but stocks are

trading off technicals not fundamentals. My semiannual value level on the 10-Year note is3.479. Comex Gold remains above its 50-day simple moving average now at $1362.0. A closebelow the 50-day would be the first since August 12th. Nymex Crude oil should trade around myweekly pivot at $88.76 this week. The euro remains below my quarterly pivot at 1.3318 with the200-day at 1.3113. The Dow Industrial Average should have the MOJO to close above 11,444.08this week to confirm another Dow Theory Buy Signal, but a close above this weeks pivot at11,467 signals a year end MOJO run. ValuEngine shows 15 of 16 sectors overvalued. The FDICcloses two more community banks bringing the total for 2010 to 151 above 150 as predicted.

10-Year Note (3.300) Daily and semiannual value levels are 3.453 and 3.479 with a weekly pivot at3.176, and annual pivots at 2.999 and 2.813, and quarterly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at

2.265, 2.249 and 1.949.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1387.1) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4, $1260.8,$1218.7 and $1115.2 with weekly and daily pivots at $1377.4 and $1405.5, and monthly risky level at

$1443.5.


Nymex Crude Oil ($87.78) Semiannual, annual and monthly value levels are $83.94, $77.05 and$75.50 with a weekly pivot at $88.76, and daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at $92.67, $96.53and $97.29.



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The Euro (1.3234) My monthly value level is 1.2500 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 1.3227 and1.3318, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.3535 and 1.4733.


Weekly Dow:(11,410) Weekly MOJO remains overbought. The five-week modified moving average is11,187 with the 200-week simple moving average at 10,930. My annual and semiannual pivots are11,235 and 11,296 with a weekly risky level at 11,467. Semiannual, annual and monthly value levels

are 10,558, 10,379 and 10,325.



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ValuEngine Valuations become more overvalued as stocks and yields rise.

Fifteen of sixteen sectors have become overvalued according to ValuEngine. The sectors that have

become 10% or more overvalued are Auto-Tires-Trucks by 13.5%, Basic Industries by 27.2%,Consumer Stables by 10.0%, Industrial Products by 13.5%, Multi-Sector Conglomerates by 13.3%,Oils-Energy by 21.9%, Retail-Wholesale by 10.0% and Transportation by 10.7%. The normal range fothe percent undervalued or overvalued stocks is 35% to 65%. Today we are close to the low end of thrange for undervalued stocks and towards the high end for overvalued stocks. Only 18.5% on stocksare undervalued by more than 20%, while 27.1% of stocks are overvalued by more than 20%.


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Bank Failure Friday The FDIC closed two more community banks last Friday. The total number offailures for 2010 is now 151 so my prediction that at least 150 banks would be closed this year is

proven to be correct. There are now 24 failures so far in the fourth quarter. The FDIC DepositInsurance fund has now been drained by $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter to date.

During The Great Credit Crunch the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDICpicked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, 41 for the third quarterand 24 for the fourth quarter for a total of 151 year to date. The total for The Great Credit Crunch isup to 316 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013. The two failedbanks last Friday had extreme overexposures to CRE loans, and one had a loan pipeline that was100% funded.

On Friday we published our quarterly FDIC report analyzing the data from the FDIC Quarterly

Banking Profile for the third quarter of 2010. The report includes the ValuEngine List of PubliclyTraded Problem Banks.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

a dow close above 11,467 signals a year end mojo run

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