a critical review of bg group's lng marketing

The Warwick MBA

Submitted by: OS Adio

Module Title: Marketing Analysis

Date: July 2014

Word Count: 2784 (Excluding headings, tables, figures, labels & references)

Number of Pages: 17

Question: Marketing Analysis of BG Group’s LNG Marketing

“This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own. All externalreferences and sources are clearly acknowledged and identified within thecontents. I am aware of the University of Warwick regulation concerningplagiarism and collusion.

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted byme in other assessments for accredited courses of study, and I acknowledge thatif this has been done an appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwisehave received will be made.”

Contents

Assignment Cover Sheet ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

1.0 Introduction to BG Group ..............................................................................3

2.0 The LNG Market Environment......................................................................4

2.1 Global Gas Consumption..................................................................................4

2.2 LNG Market Competition .................................................................................5

2.3 Price Elasticity of Demand (Product Market) ..................................................6

2.4 Pricing Mechanism – Opposing Ideologies......................................................7

3.0 BG Group Portfolio Analysis..........................................................................8

3.1 Demand Focused Flexible Portfolio.................................................................9

4.0 Segmentation, Targeting, Differentiation & Positioning ...........................10

4.1 Segmentation...................................................................................................10

4.2 Targeting.........................................................................................................10

4.3 Differentiation and Positioning ......................................................................10

5.0 BG LNG Marketing Strategy .......................................................................11

5.1 Global Energy Marketing and Shipping (GEMS)...........................................11

5.2 Flexible LNG Marketing .................................................................................11

5.3 BG Supply Contracts and LNG Pricing..........................................................12

5.4 Corporate Social Responsibility .....................................................................13

6.0 Performance Analysis....................................................................................14

6.1 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE).............................................................14

6.2 Fixed Asset Turnover ......................................................................................14

7.0 Evaluation and Conclusion ...........................................................................15

References ...................................................................................................................16

WBS Global Energy MBA Marketing Analysis

Submitted by: 1267916 1 July 2014

List of Figures Page

1 BG Group 2013 Operating Profit 3

2 Historical Natural Gas Consumption (Demand) 4

3 LNG Industry Porter’s 5 Forces Analysis 5

4 2011 Global Natural Gas Use 6

5 Residential Natural Gas Price Elasticity 6

6 Gas and LNG Prices 2008 to 2014 7

7 BG Upstream and LNG Geographical Footprint 8

8 Global LNG Demand 8

9 BG LNG loaded volumes by source and destination 9

10 BG LNG Sales and LNG Importer 2013 Statistics 10

11 BG’s Flexible LNG Marketing Model 11

12 Asia LNG Pricing Framework 12

13 Cost of LNG Supply to Asia 13

14 Return on Capital Employed; BG Competition Analysis 14

15 Fixed Asset Turnover; BG Competition Analysis 14



Acronyms

BOE Barrel of Oil Equivalent

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CAPEX Capital Expenditure

E&P Exploration & Production

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEMS Global Energy Marketing and Shipping

HH Henry Hub

IOC International Oil Company

JCC Japanese Custom Cleared

JKT Japan Korea and Thailand

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

MLNG Mini Liquefied Natural Gas

MMBtu Million British Thermal Units

NBP National Balancing Point

NGL Natural Gas Liquids

NOC National Oil Company

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PEoD Price Elasticity of Demand



1.0 Introduction to BG Group

BG Group (BG) was formed out of the demerger of the UK gas industry monopolist firm,

British Gas. This was done as part of de-regulation of the gas market and introduction of

competition (Adio, 2013).

In 1997, British Gas demerged into two separately listed companies: BG plc in charge of

exploration and production and the overseas operations of British Gas and Centrica plc in

charge of the UK retail business of the former British Gas (BG, 2014a). BG is a natural gas

producer. It carries out the discovery, extraction, transmission, distribution and supply of

natural gas. BG classified its operations into two segments, namely, Upstream and

Transmission, and LNG Shipping and Marketing. BG is headquartered in Reading,

Berkshire, UK. (Global Company Intelligence, 2014).

The company’s 2013 operating profit of $7610million from 633kboed upstream production

and 10.9 mmtpa delivered LNG (BG, 2014b) is decomposed in figure-1

Figure 1 – BG Group 2013 Operating Profit (BG Group, 2014b)

LNGShipping &Marketing

35%Upstream65%

OPERATING PROFIT BY BUSINESS SEGEMENT

The LNG sector thus represents approximately one-third of BG’s profit.

BG has assets and operations throughout the LNG value delivery network. These include

stakes in E&P plays and liquefaction plants. The company also has a fleet of LNG ships to

fulfil sales delivery and has stakes in re-gasification facilities, including at Dragon LNG in the

UK (BG 2014f).

The UK operations along with Singapore represent the company’s global marketing hubs and

thus crucial to its worldwide marketing operations.



2.0 The LNG Market Environment

Prior to assessing the operations, portfolio and LNG marketing strategy of BG group, a

context of the market environment will be analysed to give a backdrop against BG’s chosen

strategy.

2.1 Global Gas Consumption

Whilst the focus is on BG’s marketing of LNG, it should be recognised that the primary

commodity is gas and LNG is a medium to supply gas to the final consumer. Consequently,

there is a direct proportionality between the consumption of gas and the demand for LNG,

where gas consumption includes LNG.

As noted by Adio (2013), the global nature and synchronicity of the 2009 recession resulted

in a fall in GDP across most countries worldwide. This resulted in lower demand, including

demand for natural gas (figure-2).

Figure 2 – Historical Natural Consumption (Demand) (BP, 2013)

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Glo

ba

lCo

nsu

mp

tio

nB

cf/d

ay

Global Natural Gas Consumption

This fall in natural gas consumption impacted all major producers in terms of volumes

supplied to the global market during the recession.



2.2 LNG Market Competition

The global LNG industry is a consolidated market with few multinationals having the

financial power to operate base load plants and execute marketing logistics. The major

players which are a mix of IOCs and NOCs include Shell, Qatar LNG, Woodside Petroleum,

Nigeria LNG and BG.

The competitive forces experienced by BG within this sector will be analysed using Porter’s

5-forces;

Figure 3 – LNG Industry Porter’s 5 Forces Analysis

The analysis shows the sign of a moderately competitive market. The LNG market can be

best described as oligopolistic competition. High capital cost keeps entry barriers high and

threat of substitutes to the primary commodity remains low due to current lack of price

competitiveness of the alternatives (wind, solar). Adio (2013) noted that supplier power

remains the biggest challenge for similar energy industry players as government policies and

actions, such as appropriation of assets or not honouring contract terms can adversely impact

company performance.

However, it is anticipated that the industry may become more fragmented and more

competitive in the medium to long term if Mini-LNG gains popularity (Sathyamoorthy, 2014)

and projects from much smaller organisations begin to come online. Whilst Mini-LNG will

not compete for supply sources with base load projects, the undifferentiated product will

compete for demand market share such that an aggregation of MLNG plants in one country

(e.g. Japan) could result in a fall in that country’s LNG import volumes.



2.3 Price Elasticity of Demand (Product Market)

Adio (2013) noted that natural gas is a commodity that is widely used within the global

residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Figure-4 shows the composition of natural gas

consumption.

Figure 4 – 2011 Global Natural Gas Use (IEA, 2013)

Transport7%

Industry37%

Non-energy Use12%

Other(Agricultural,Residential,Commercial,

Public Services)44%

2011 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS USE

LNG after re-gasification can be used in all of the above sectors. Using LNG as a proxy for

natural gas, LNG is expected to have a low price elasticity of demand as a result of the

implied widespread utilisation and essential nature of the commodity. The price elasticity of

demand for gas in nine OECD countries is shown in figure-5.

Figure 5 – Residential Natural Gas Price Elasticity (Bernstein, 2011)

Austria Germany Ireland Japan Luxmbrg Holland Swiss UK US Mean

Long Run Income Elasticity -0.4 -0.2 -1.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5

Short Run Income Elasticity 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.05 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.05 -0.2

-1.8

-1.5

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

Pri

ceEl

asti

city

Residential Natural Gas Price Elasticity

Average short run price elasticity value of -0.2 implies that demand will fall by 20% if prices

rise by 100%. This shows that natural gas/LNG demand is price inelastic (PEoD < 0) within

the OECD. This price inelasticity of demand serves as an advantage to companies such as

BG; as price increases will not have a negative effect on revenues.

Adio (2013) speculated that the increasing trend of global natural gas consumption seen in

figure-2, despite increasing well head cost over the same period suggest that the price

inelasticity of natural gas/LNG is global (on average) rather than being limited to the OECD

residential sector.



2.4 Pricing Mechanism – Opposing Ideologies

As noted by Huitric (Year-unknown), the emergence of the US & UK as key demand centres

for LNG has led to a shift in LNG pricing which was once dominated by long term oil-

indexed contracts that were prevalent in Asia and Middle East. Huitric (Year-unknown)

argued that for the LNG sellers to serve the most liquid markets with almost infinite LNG

demand emerging from US & UK they had to adjust and accept a spot pricing mechanism of

the HH and NBP respectively, which were in operation in these countries.

Long term oil-indexed contracts typically carries a premium over spot prices (Harris, 2013) as

shown in figure-6 (Asia LT proxy vs. Spots).

Figure 6 – Gas and LNG prices: 2012 to 2014 (BG, 2014c)

The emergence of a spot price option is thus changing buyer behaviour as buyers try to source

their LNG from markets they perceive as more cost effective, particularly the US with HH

spot prices driven low due to emergence of cheap shale gas. This view is supported by a

Gastech (2014) article which states that relatively few oil-linked long-term contracts have

been signed recently by Asian buyers, with only 5mtpa executed in the last 18-months.



3.0 BG Group Portfolio Analysis

From a product point of view, BG’s portfolio is very narrow and restricted to natural gas and

LNG. However, BG’s portfolio can also be looked at in terms of market and assets. BG’s

upstream and LNG assets are highly diversified across the globe (figure-7).

Figure 7 – BG Upstream and LNG Geographical Footprint (BG Group, 2014c)

Such a diversified portfolio of producing assets in upstream and LNG (liquefaction and re-

gasification shown as equity positions in figure-7) and LNG shipping and marketing reduces

the company’s risk on security of supply and gives it access and proximity to key markets. .

Analysing LNG using the product life cycle concept as used by Kotler et al (2013 p.287),

LNG can be regarded as going through a growth phase (figure-8).

Figure 8 – Global LNG Demand (EY, 2014)

However, unlike the typical product life cycle of a consumer product where the growth phase

might only last 5 or 10 years and then move into mature/decline, it is not expected that LNG



will move into a mature/decline phase so quickly unless global gas production starts to

decline. Due to the essential nature of the commodity, it is anticipated that once saturation of

demand is reached in certain regions, economic or non-economic (e.g Fukushima earthquake)

developments in others will lead to increasing demand of LNG in other regions. This theory

is aligned with the trend shown in figure-8 whereby demand has stagnated in JKT but other

regions are fuelling the actual and projected global demand growth of LNG.

3.1 Demand Focused Flexible Portfolio

BG meets customer LNG demand with third-party LNG purchases as well as its own operated

LNG production (figure-9).

Figure 9 – BG LNG loaded volumes by source and destination (BG, 2014b)

Its LNG sales portfolio of operated production and third-party sources (figure-9) (BG, 2014b)

means BG can meet LNG demand volumes significantly higher than the capacity of its fixed

asset base.

With a commodity that is expected to have increasing global consumption and a globally

diversified asset and marketing portfolio, BG’s portfolio can thus be regarded as fairly robust.



4.0 Segmentation, Targeting, Differentiation & Positioning

4.1 Segmentation

The LNG market can be segmented using the concept of inter-market segmentation as

discussed by Kotler et al (2013 p.212). LNG is produced and sold either in base load

quantities or MLNG scale quantities. BG operates in the base load segment of the market

where LNG volumes are sold to countries and major utilities compared to the MLNG market

where LNG is produced and sold locally or regionally. Hence BG effectively serves the

market of countries with significant import requirements. This fits with the concept of inter-

market segmentation.

4.2 Targeting

Global LNG importing statistics and BG LNG sales statistics suggest that BG focuses itsmarketing effort in some regions more than others (figure-10).

Figure 10 – BG LNG Sales and LNG Importer 2013 statistics (Adapted from BG, 2014c)

Almost half of BG’s sales is to the premium oil-linked pricing Asian market whilst very little,

by comparison, is sold into the European and North American markets where spot pricing is

used. Whilst this could be a natural consequence of the percentage of global LNG bought by

the Asian market (figure-10), it is conceivable that BG would target and maximise sales to

such a market where it can obtain the highest margin on its product.

4.3 Differentiation and Positioning

Whilst LNG as a product cannot be differentiated, through its demand focused marketing

strategy BG is able to position itself with an augmented product that is characterised by

flexibility of delivery, reliability and quick response time. In addition to flexibility in meeting

its supply obligations, with its marketing model and uncontracted volumes, BG can quickly

respond to unexpected disruption in competitor’s supply or fluctuations in demand. These

features of differentiation is what Kotler et al (2013, p.223) referred to as service

differentiation.



5.0 BG LNG Marketing Strategy

5.1 Global Energy Marketing and Shipping (GEMS)

BG uses an integrated GEMS system for coordination and marketing of its LNG globally.

GEMS established LNG trading hubs are in the UK and Singapore and is engaged in

marketing LNG (as well as oil and gas) to buyers globally, both on a long term and short-term

basis. GEMS activities also cover monitoring of storage levels at BG terminals, LNG backfill

opportunities and fleet availability (BG, 2014d).

Being the nerve centre of coordination and execution of sales contracts, the UK European

operation represents a key part of BG’s marketing strategy.

5.2 Flexible LNG Marketing

BG operates a flexible LNG marketing model focused on destination flexibility rather than

the traditional point-to-point contracts (Melling, 2010).

The marketing strategy relies on supplementing BG’s LNG production with competitively

sourced LNG volumes from third parties. These are then delivered to buyers on both long

and short term contracts (figure-11).

Figure 11 – BG’s Flexible LNG Marketing Model (BG, 2014b)

To date BG has bought supply from 12 out of the 17 countries currently producing LNG and

sold LNG to 25 out of the 27 importing countries (BG, 2014b). Delivery of LNG is via a

flexible portfolio consisting of owned and leased LNG carriers. For 2013 BG reported using

between 25 and 30 ships at any one time to market LNG around the world despite owning just

5 LNG ships (2014c p.29).



5.3 BG Supply Contracts and LNG Pricing

Approximately 80% of BG’s 2014 LNG sales are expected to be made under medium to long

term supply contracts with the vast majority priced index to oil (BG, 2014b p.13). The

outstanding uncontracted 20% of LNG sales are expected to be sold into high value spot

markets (BG, 2014b p.13). The decision to hold uncontracted volume is key to the

company’s flexible marketing model.

To a certain extent, BG is a price taker as there is little scope to make pricing decisions due to

the industry mechanism of pricing. However, oil-linked contracts still provide room for

negotiation. A typical example is Asia LNG pricing, which is oil-linked and based on

Japanese Customs Cleared (JCC) price for crude oil (figure-12).

Figure 12 – Asia LNG Pricing Framework (Adapted from CAPP, 2014)

The pricing formula intercept (A) is the only degree of freedom for sellers such as BG to

influence the price paid. This parameter, which is subject to negotiation between buyer and

seller, is the LNG base price and it’s independent of oil price or its fluctuation. GBI Research

(2012, p.68) notes that the gradient (B) is approximately 0.155.

With regards to spot market sales, BG will be an absolute price taker with no option to sell

above the market price.



As shown in the cost structure (figure-13) the spot prices (NBP+) will generally represent the

price floor for LNG sales whilst the oil-linked contracts (Asia LT Proxy) will represent the

price roof.

Figure 13 – Cost of LNG Supply to Asia (BG, 2014c p.16)

5.4 Corporate Social Responsibility

BG recognises that the long term success of its business can be impacted by what

Reindenbach et al (1987 p.45), citing the work of Steiner referred to as the ‘social contract’.

To honour this social contract BG carries out and publicise its voluntary work in countries

where it has E&P or LNG liquefaction operations. Such work includes supporting aboriginal

communities in Australia where BG is building the Queensland Curtis LNG plant or

supporting waste management solutions in Tanzania where BG has a greenfield LNG project

(BG, 2014g). Koschate-Fischer et al (2012) referred to such activities as Cause Related

Marketing, which have become a valuable marketing tool and is expected to help the

company generate goodwill. This can be particularly crucial within host communities where

the company’s gas resources lie.



6.0 Performance Analysis

6.1 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)

BG’s ROCE and those of its competitors who also produce and trade LNG are shown in

figure-14

Figure 14 – Return on Capital Employed; BG Competition Analysis (GCI, 2014)

6.2 Fixed Asset Turnover

BG’s Fixed Asset Turnover and those of its competitors are shown in figure-15

Figure 15 – Fixed Asset Turnover; BG Competition Analysis (GCI, 2014)

Despite its market share maximising LNG strategy, the above performance metrics shows that

BG is still behind some of its key competitors. It is expected that its LNG strategy should

maximise fixed asset turnover beyond the performance shown in figure-15, hence BG’s

upstream operations, which represents 65% of profits are suspected to be dominant in these

results. The results also show the impact of the 2008/9 recession noted in section-2.1.



7.0 Evaluation and Conclusion

The LNG market is forecasted to grow at 4.8% CAGR up to 2025 resulting in a forecasted

supply gap of 150mtpa (BG, 2014c p.9). Whilst competition is currently moderate, BG must

continually revise its strategies as the emergence of MLNG may result in a fragmented and

more competitive space. The competition could strengthen further if predicted demand does

not materialise due to improving economics of substitutes such as wind and solar.

BG has long benefitted from regional Asian oil-linked contracts that maximised profit.

However, the emergence of spot pricing and a shift in what represents value in LNG pricing

in the mind-set of buyers means suppliers such as BG are likely to experience a fall in long

term oil-linked contracts in favour of spot market purchases..

With evolution of competition and possible emergence of spot pricing in Asia, BG can expect

a squeeze on revenue and profits in the medium to long term despite the price inelasticity of

gas/LNG. The impact on margins can be reduced by controlling its cost and increasing the

value added in its portfolio. BG’s presence at every point along the LNG value delivery

network means the company can control its cost better to achieve lowest possible cost per

tonne of LNG sold. To support this objective, unit lifting cost, which was estimated to have

increased by 33% to $16.25/boe in 2013 (BG, 2014b) and cost on CAPEX which was rated as

average by a Wood Mackenzie study of CAPEX projects (BG, 2013e) must also be improved.

Furthermore, due to BGs’ flexible marketing portfolio, cost advantage gained along the value

delivery network is limited to the percentage of LNG BG produces itself (approximately 50%

in 2013) (figure-10, sources loaded). Increase in value added should be targeted by

increasing the percentage of owned produced LNG volume. To this end BG currently has an

inventory of supply projects totalling 43mtpa of LNG scheduled to come on-stream over the

next 5-10 years (BG, 2014c).

Whilst the flexible marketing strategy has the drawback of eroding maximum attainable

margin on total volume delivered, this innovative strategy, which first emerged as a hedge

against unexpected reversals in demand and now growing in the sector (PFC Energy, 2012

p.27), enables BG to command a market share that significantly exceeds the capacity of its

asset base. Citing Wood Mackenzie’s LNG tool, BG (2014c p.28) noted that amongst IOC’s,

BG is predicted to trade the largest combined (committed and flexible) volume of LNG up to

2017.

In conclusion, BG’s flexible portfolio is designed to maximise market share rather than profit

margin. Such an approach is perfectly sound in the current LNG market. However, as the

market becomes more fragmented and more competitive, margins will be squeezed. BG

should start to transition the balance in its portfolio towards this future market structure by

investing more in liquefaction plants and LNG carriers in order to increase overall value

added in its portfolio. Furthermore, as competition intensifies, with the potential for supply to

exceed demand, BG should consider an overall product mix pricing strategy as suppliers

compete to optimise sales volume and margins. Particularly useful here will be by-product

pricing (Kotler et al. p. 331). By selling NGL, a valuable by-product of LNG production at

commodity market prices, BG can seek to lower its base LNG price to give it a competitive

price and thus keep its sales volume and may be even further penetrate the market.



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KHXN_AQ7qCI6kkQ


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http://www.ivt.ntnu.no/ept/fag/tep4215/innhold/LNG Conferences/2007/fscommand/PS1_4_Huitric_s.pdf

http://www.ivt.ntnu.no/ept/fag/tep4215/innhold/LNG Conferences/2007/fscommand/PS1_4_Huitric_s.pdf

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,31287,en.html

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http://encore.lib.warwick.ac.uk:50080/ebsco-w-b/bsi/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=eb787802-a8f0-43f7-b798-a571ac0a79ed%40sessionmgr112&vid=2&hid=103

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a critical review of bg group's lng marketing

Documents

flexible lng marketing

bg lng marketing strategy

lng pricing

global energy marketing

marketing analysisdate

lng market environment

lng market competition

bg group portfolio analysis