a comprehensive, multi- pathway, · a comprehensive, multi- pathway, multi-source, air pollution...
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A COMPREHENSIVE, MULTI- PATHWAY, MULTI-SOURCE, AIR POLLUTION RISK
MODELING SYSTEM
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1. Emissions inventory 203 ll t t• 203 pollutants
• Point, non‐point (area), and mobile sources
2. Air dispersion & deposition modelingp p g• AERMOD
3. Fate, transport & biota modeling• Water, soil, plants, animals, humans
4. Risk Estimation• Multiple pathways (per IRAP/HHRAP)• Multiple pathways (per IRAP/HHRAP)• residents, farmers, fishers, adults, children• Toxicity values: MN Health Dept, IRIS, CalEPA, HEAST
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2005 emissions inventory
AERMOD dispersion modelp
Secondary PM2.5, acrolein, formaldehyde, and acetaldehydeaceta de yde
Improved spatial resolution of onroad mobile sourcessources
More dense coverage (57,866 receptors) including centroid receptorscentroid receptors
Improved assessment and detailed reporting of source subcategoriessource subcategories
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Point Sourceslarge stationary sources
Mobile SourcesMobile SourcesOn-roadNon-roadNon road
Area (Non-point) Sourcessmaller stationary sources inventoried collectively
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On-Road Mobile Sources
Area (nonpoint) Sources
Area (nonpoint) Sources (cont’d)
Cars Agricultural Field Burning Industrial Processes: ConstructionCarsBusesTrucks
Agricultural Pesticide UseAgricultural Production - Animal WasteAgricultural Production - Fertilizer
ApplicationAgriculture Production - Crops, Tilling
Industrial Surface CoatingMineral Processes: SIC 32Paved RoadsPetroleum Bulk
Stations/Terminals: BreathingN R d M bil Animal Cremation
Asphalt PavingAuto body RefinishingCommercial and Consumer Products
Usage
RefrigerationResidential Fossil Fuel CombustionResidential Wood BurningSolvent CleaningStationary Fuel Combustion,
Non-Road Mobile SourcesLawn & Garden EquipmentOff Road Vehicles (e g Commercial Cooking
Domestic Animals - Waste EmissionsDry CleanersFluorescent Lamp BreakageFluorescent Lamp Recycling
y ,Commercial/Institutional
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion, Industrial
Structure FiresSurface Coatings - Architectural
Off Road Vehicles (e.g., ATVs)
SnowmobilesBoats p y g
Gasoline Service StationsGasoline Trucks in TransitGrain ElevatorsGraphic ArtsHospital Sterilization
Swimming PoolsTank/Drum CleaningTraffic MarkingsUnpaved RoadsWaste Disposal, Open Burning
PlanesTrainsConstruction EquipmentF E i t osp ta Ste at o
Human CremationHuman Perspiration
Waste IncinerationWild Animals - Waste Emissions
Farm Equipment
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• Pollutant• Pollutant• Geographic region• Source
Individual SourceIndividual SourceCategories (mobile, area, point)Subcategories & Industrial sectorsSubcategories & Industrial sectors
• Exposure pathway• Receptor scenario
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Inhalation cancer risks – all sources
Diesel
All pollutants
All pollutants except diesel,
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Inhalation cancer risks – all sourcesMetro areaMetro area
Diesel
All ll t tAll pollutants
All pollutants except diesel,
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer RisksArea Sources
Area sourcesall pollutants Stationary diesel engines
Industrial & Commercial/Institutional
Area sourcesall pollutants except diesel
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks – metroArea Sources
Area Source TotalAll pollutants
Stationary Diesel Engines –Industrial &
Commercial/Institutionalo e c a / s u o a
Area SourcesArea SourcesAll pollutants except
diesel
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Stationary source fuel combustion ‐Industrial
Stationary source fuel combustion –Commercial/Institutional
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks ‐ statewide
Nonroad Diesel
Nonroad diesel Total Locomotive – line haul Locomotive railway maintenance
Construction & Mining Equipment Ag EquipmentLawn & garden
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks – metro Nonroad Diesel
Nonroad diesel totalLocomotive – line haul Locomotive – railway maintenance
Construction & Mining Equipment Ag Equipment
Lawn & garden
Lawn & garden
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks ‐ statewide
Point Sources
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks ‐ statewide
Point Sources
Hawkinson Construction Co.
North Central Aggregates – non‐metallic
Central By‐products
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Estimated Inhalation Cancer Risks ‐metro
Point Sources
Cummins Power Generation Inc
Barton Sand & Gravel
Commercial A h ltC i l AsphaltCommercial
Asphalt
Sibley Aggregates lli‐ nonmetallic
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Uncertainties & Limitations
Some simplifying assumptions:• stack parameters unavailable for many sources – assumed
SCC averages• stack locations from existing data (e.g., front door address,stack locations from existing data (e.g., front door address,
main stack, facility centroid)• surrogates used to apportion county emissions to census
tractstracts• mobile and area source emissions represented as census
tract polygons (high traffic road segments modeled explicitly)explicitly)
• short term emission rates derived from steady state assumption
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Uncertainties & Limitations
Some caveats:Some caveats:
• Diesel risks based on CalEPA inhalation unit risk value no EPA consensus on valuerisk value – no EPA consensus on value
• Fence line risks not systematically evaluated
• Data quality varies by source and by source category
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Uncertainties & LimitationsUncertainties & Limitations
• We don’t have population data for non‐road mobile apportionment need survey dataapportionment – need survey data
• Stationary fuel combustion emissions highly uncertain due to non‐exclusive fuel consumption data for the category– Double‐counting in area, point & nonroad categories
– Area source emissions could decrease by up to 1/3 or moremore
– Will make adjustments to correct this in 2008 inventoryinventory