A Community Meeting on Real-time and A Community Meeting on Real-time and Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:

An Analysis of Record SummitAn Analysis of Record Summit

Can research and operations work together on this Can research and operations work together on this problem?problem?

Are there clearly definable requirements and Are there clearly definable requirements and objectives?objectives?

Can we make a compelling argument?Can we make a compelling argument? If so, to look beyond here – what next?If so, to look beyond here – what next?

The First Step: Translating Needs to The First Step: Translating Needs to RequirementsRequirements

Many applications require the current and past Many applications require the current and past states of the atmosphere near the surface at high states of the atmosphere near the surface at high spatial and temporal resolution.spatial and temporal resolution.

What does an analysis of record represent?What does an analysis of record represent? Can one analysis of record meet all needs?Can one analysis of record meet all needs?

• Local analyses vs. national productsLocal analyses vs. national products• Real-time vs. retrospective analysesReal-time vs. retrospective analyses• Resolution issuesResolution issues

What spatial and temporal resolution?What spatial and temporal resolution? Averages vs. extremes in time/space? Averages vs. extremes in time/space?

• Parameter issues (temperature, precipitation, etc.) Parameter issues (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

To what extent can these requirements be met given existing To what extent can these requirements be met given existing scientific understanding, technologies, and resources?scientific understanding, technologies, and resources?• What can be learned from the scientific literature and current What can be learned from the scientific literature and current

applications?applications?• What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing

methodologies?methodologies?• What observational data sets are most critical?What observational data sets are most critical?• What limitations are imposed by the existing and future What limitations are imposed by the existing and future

observational data assets vs. those available in the past? observational data assets vs. those available in the past? • What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? What limitations are imposed by an underlying model?

Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.?clouds, etc.?

• What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses within the next year or two?analyses within the next year or two?

• Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation)(temperature vs. precipitation)

• How can the quality of analyses be assessed? What are How can the quality of analyses be assessed? What are appropriate measures of skill?appropriate measures of skill?

The Second Step: Science, Technology, The Second Step: Science, Technology, and Resource Inventoryand Resource Inventory

What are the critical scientific issues that must be What are the critical scientific issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop quality faced in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution?analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution?

What additional R&D and resources are needed?What additional R&D and resources are needed? Possible outcomes of this meeting?Possible outcomes of this meeting?

• USWRP report based on recommendations from workshop and USWRP report based on recommendations from workshop and additional feedback from operational, research, and user additional feedback from operational, research, and user communitiescommunities

• Permanent NOAA/USWRP committee formed to continue Permanent NOAA/USWRP committee formed to continue advocacy for analysis of recordadvocacy for analysis of record

• Propose fast-track implementation plan to provide AOR soonPropose fast-track implementation plan to provide AOR soon• Develop long-term clearly-defined project plan with compelling Develop long-term clearly-defined project plan with compelling

arguments arguments • Propose funding opportunities and resources be sought to Propose funding opportunities and resources be sought to

facilitate research projects from NWS, NSF, and other agenciesfacilitate research projects from NWS, NSF, and other agencies• Advocate long-term funding from NOAA/NWS and other Advocate long-term funding from NOAA/NWS and other

agencies for implementation of AOR beginning FY 07agencies for implementation of AOR beginning FY 07

The Third Step: Recommendations and The Third Step: Recommendations and OutcomesOutcomes

Meeting FormatMeeting Format Overview talks (operations and research)Overview talks (operations and research) Review talks from recent USWRP workshopsReview talks from recent USWRP workshops Plenary sessionsPlenary sessions

• Current capabilitiesCurrent capabilities• Data specific applicationsData specific applications• Kalman Filter applicationsKalman Filter applications• Future strategies (EMC, FSL) Future strategies (EMC, FSL)

Breakout groupsBreakout groups• Operational requirementsOperational requirements• Data and verificationData and verification• Assimilation strategies and techniquesAssimilation strategies and techniques

Analysis of Record Issues:Analysis of Record Issues: Operational Perspective Operational Perspective

Brad ColmanBrad ColmanNOAA/National Weather ServiceNOAA/National Weather Service

Seattle, WashingtonSeattle, WashingtonBrad.Colman@noaa.govBrad.Colman@noaa.gov

Key questionsKey questions

What is driving the current operational What is driving the current operational demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale objective analysis?objective analysis?

What are the specific requirements of a What are the specific requirements of a real-time effort to meet these demands?real-time effort to meet these demands?

Where can science and/or analysis Where can science and/or analysis capabilities influence or help define capabilities influence or help define specific forecast elements?specific forecast elements?

Your National Weather Your National Weather Service Goes DigitalService Goes Digital

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

A national database of digital weather A national database of digital weather forecast informationforecast information

Designed to meet the fundamental Designed to meet the fundamental weather information needs of industry, weather information needs of industry, media, commercial weather services, media, commercial weather services, academia, and publicacademia, and public

Includes multiple delivery formats, e.g., Includes multiple delivery formats, e.g., via the web for user-selectable location via the web for user-selectable location specific forecasts or downloadable specific forecasts or downloadable National data filesNational data files

National Digital Forecast DatabaseNational Digital Forecast Database Mosaic forecasts for the Mosaic forecasts for the

entire country or regional entire country or regional domainsdomains

Public, marine and other Public, marine and other products availableproducts available

Can be integrated with GIS Can be integrated with GIS mappingmapping

It’s aggressive and represents a major paradigm shift in the way field forecasters produce their forecasts.

Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS)Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS)

Grid resolution (variable)Grid resolution (variable)• 5 km today, 2.5 km being discussed within the next year 5 km today, 2.5 km being discussed within the next year

(down to a “neighborhood” scale)(down to a “neighborhood” scale)• Basic building block for the weather element grids is 5 x 5 Basic building block for the weather element grids is 5 x 5

km spatial and 1 hour temporalkm spatial and 1 hour temporal Numerical weather prediction inputsNumerical weather prediction inputs

• Relatively coarse horizontal and verticalRelatively coarse horizontal and vertical• ““SmartInit” process to downscale and generate sensible SmartInit” process to downscale and generate sensible

elementselements• Integration of point MOS guidanceIntegration of point MOS guidance

Forecaster inputs and adjustmentsForecaster inputs and adjustments• Generally iterative (w/o fresh model data)Generally iterative (w/o fresh model data)• Graphical editing toolsGraphical editing tools• ““SmartTool” scriptsSmartTool” scripts

So, what is missing from this new So, what is missing from this new forecast process?forecast process?

A forecast matching (or defining) analysis for:A forecast matching (or defining) analysis for:• VerificationVerification• A starting point for short-term forecastsA starting point for short-term forecasts• Resource management decisionsResource management decisions

Other operational applications:Other operational applications:• Retrospective analyses and climate (25 years?)Retrospective analyses and climate (25 years?)• MOS and other post-processing techniquesMOS and other post-processing techniques

Analysis of Record!

Analysis of RecordAnalysis of Record

NWS motivation:NWS motivation: Real-time seamless verificationReal-time seamless verification Provide forecasters useful feedbackProvide forecasters useful feedback Give forecasters a way to assess the initialization and Give forecasters a way to assess the initialization and

performance of NWP modelsperformance of NWP models Serves as input to the GFE for use in short-term Serves as input to the GFE for use in short-term

forecastsforecasts Contributes to the ongoing development of a gridded Contributes to the ongoing development of a gridded

climatologyclimatology Building block for new MOS applicationsBuilding block for new MOS applications Hydrology applicationsHydrology applications

But, this is also a community problemBut, this is also a community problem

• Mesoscale model development and verificationMesoscale model development and verification

• Transportation managementTransportation management

• Emergency management and responseEmergency management and response

• Hindcast testing of data assimilation schemesHindcast testing of data assimilation schemes

• Private sector requirementsPrivate sector requirements

• Homeland defenseHomeland defense

• Regional climate studiesRegional climate studies

• Etc.Etc.

Surface Transportation WeatherSurface Transportation WeatherObservational RequirementsObservational Requirements

Paul A. PisanoPaul A. PisanoTeam Leader, Road Weather ManagementTeam Leader, Road Weather Management

Federal Highway AdministrationFederal Highway Administration

Surface Transportation Weather - Requirements

The surface transportation forecast challenge:

•Fine-scale models with the horizontal resolution of a transportation corridor (e.g., an interstate highway)

•More detailed forecast output in the Nowcast timeframe (0-3 hr)

•Update rates on the order of minutes

•The ability to assimilate vast quantities of real-time mobile data

•Specialized sub-processes that predict such roadway hazards as:

•Precipitation start/stop times•Precipitation type and phase changes•Roadway icing (precipitation accumulation)•Roadway icing (frost deposition and black ice formation)•Reduced visibility in fog, precipitation or smoke•Driver level wind direction and speed•Driver level wind character (gustiness)

Key questionsKey questions

What is driving the current operational What is driving the current operational demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale objective analysis?objective analysis?

What are the specific requirements of a What are the specific requirements of a real-time effort to meet these demands?real-time effort to meet these demands?

Where can science and/or analysis Where can science and/or analysis capabilities influence or help define capabilities influence or help define specific forecast elements?specific forecast elements?

Core parameters for Initial Core parameters for Initial Operating Capability of NDFDOperating Capability of NDFD

max/min temp max/min temp temperature temperature dew point dew point relative humidity*relative humidity* max/min RH *max/min RH * heat index*heat index* wind chill*wind chill* floating PoP12 floating PoP12 prob of precip. (12h)*prob of precip. (12h)* sky coversky cover wind direction and speedwind direction and speed

* Indicates a derived parameter* Indicates a derived parameter

wind gusts (>10 kts over wind gusts (>10 kts over sustained) sustained)

20 ft. wind * (NWS regional 20 ft. wind * (NWS regional option)option)

Lightning Activity Level (LAL)Lightning Activity Level (LAL) weather (type, intnsty, weather (type, intnsty,

prob/covrg) prob/covrg) snow amount snow amount significant wave heightsignificant wave height visibilityvisibility

General Forecast Element MatrixGeneral Forecast Element Matrix

Diurnal Day (CONUS) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7

UTC Day 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8

UTC Hour 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00

Hours 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 78 84 90 96 108 120 132 144 156 168

max/min temperature A AX

A AX

A A A A A A A A A A

temperature A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A AA

A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

dew point A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A AAA

A A A A A

apparent temperature* A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

relative humidity* A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

probability of precip. (12h)* A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

sky cover A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A AA

A A A A AA

A A

wind direction and speed A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A B

A B

A A A A

wind gust A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A AXA

AX

A A A A A

weather (type, intnsty,prob/cvrg) A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A

quantitative precipitation

A A A A A A A A A A A A

snow amount

A A A A A A A A

The 0-hour field is missing – we feel this should be an actual product

Considerations:Considerations:• Be at the same resolution (both spatial and temporal) Be at the same resolution (both spatial and temporal)

as the forecast gridsas the forecast grids• Incorporate data from all sources: RAWS, COOP, Incorporate data from all sources: RAWS, COOP,

satellite, radar, lightning detectionsatellite, radar, lightning detection• Be as independent from the NWP models as possibleBe as independent from the NWP models as possible

Potential directions:Potential directions:• A collaborative effort will likely be needed between the A collaborative effort will likely be needed between the

NWS, ERL, private sector, and universities NWS, ERL, private sector, and universities • Opportunities for outsourcing should be exploredOpportunities for outsourcing should be explored• External peer-review process will be beneficialExternal peer-review process will be beneficial• A long-term effort is required for optimal skill. But A long-term effort is required for optimal skill. But

work should begin now on initial fast-track capabilitywork should begin now on initial fast-track capability

Key questionsKey questions What is driving the current operational What is driving the current operational

demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale demand for a skillful, real-time mesoscale objective analysis?objective analysis?

What are the specific requirements of a What are the specific requirements of a real-time effort to meet these demands?real-time effort to meet these demands?

Where can science and/or analysis Where can science and/or analysis capabilities influence or help define capabilities influence or help define specific forecast elements?specific forecast elements?

What do science and objective analysis What do science and objective analysis techniques tell us about:techniques tell us about:

presenting a gridded forecast to users?presenting a gridded forecast to users?• Grid-box average vs. grid-point?Grid-box average vs. grid-point?• expressing uncertainty within the grid box?expressing uncertainty within the grid box?

deriving sensible weather elements from deriving sensible weather elements from raw NWP output?raw NWP output?

weather elements that are uniquely defined weather elements that are uniquely defined by techniques and/or measurements?by techniques and/or measurements?• Sky cover (METAR cig limitations, satellite, etc.)Sky cover (METAR cig limitations, satellite, etc.)• Wind and wind gustsWind and wind gusts• Maximum and minimum temperaturesMaximum and minimum temperatures

AMS 1AMS 1stst National Weather and Climate National Weather and Climate Enterprise Partnership SummitEnterprise Partnership Summit

Follows from NRC report “Follows from NRC report “Fair Weather, Effective Fair Weather, Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate ServicesPartnerships in Weather and Climate Services.”.”

Part of AMS effort to serve as a neutral hostPart of AMS effort to serve as a neutral host 27/28 July 2004, Dallas-Fort Worth27/28 July 2004, Dallas-Fort Worth ““Developing a National Mesoscale Observing Developing a National Mesoscale Observing

Network: Fundamental Questions.”Network: Fundamental Questions.” Targets the process necessary to achieve a Targets the process necessary to achieve a

National mesoscale networkNational mesoscale network

Critical QuestionsCritical Questions(1)(1) What can be learned from the literature and applications of existing methodologies as far What can be learned from the literature and applications of existing methodologies as far

as benefits and limitations of a particular approach that may be advocated for an analysis as benefits and limitations of a particular approach that may be advocated for an analysis of record?of record?

(2)(2) What are the critical issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop a quality What are the critical issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop a quality analysis of record at spatial scales of 2.5-5 km every hour?analysis of record at spatial scales of 2.5-5 km every hour?

(3)(3) Are there some aspects of an analysis of record effort that are more straightforward to Are there some aspects of an analysis of record effort that are more straightforward to accomplish than others, i.e., specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation), real-time accomplish than others, i.e., specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation), real-time analyses vs. retrospective analyses?analyses vs. retrospective analyses?

(4)(4) To what extent will the analysis of record be constrained by limitations of the existing and To what extent will the analysis of record be constrained by limitations of the existing and future observational data base vs. that available in the past? What observational data future observational data base vs. that available in the past? What observational data sets do we view to be most critical?sets do we view to be most critical?

(5)(5) To what extent will the analysis of record be constrained by limitations of an underlying To what extent will the analysis of record be constrained by limitations of an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.?model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.?

(6)(6) What are appropriate measures to assess the skill of an analysis of record on these What are appropriate measures to assess the skill of an analysis of record on these spatial and temporal scales?spatial and temporal scales?

(7)(7) What are the resource implications of a particular method?What are the resource implications of a particular method?

EMC’s AOR ConceptEMC’s AOR Concept Can’t just apply 2-D analysis (variational or Can’t just apply 2-D analysis (variational or

otherwise) to surface data - we might have otherwise) to surface data - we might have 10,000’s of mesonet/surface obs, 10,000’s of mesonet/surface obs, B U T B U T we have we have millions of AOR grid pointsmillions of AOR grid points

Need a 3-D forecast model to obtain temporally Need a 3-D forecast model to obtain temporally consistent solution dictated among observed data, consistent solution dictated among observed data, terrain & lower boundary forcing and synoptic terrain & lower boundary forcing and synoptic forcing forcing

Propose to apply tried & true NCEP 4-D data Propose to apply tried & true NCEP 4-D data assimilation technique of forecast-analysis cycle at assimilation technique of forecast-analysis cycle at high resolution (~2 km) with cost cutting measures high resolution (~2 km) with cost cutting measures to make feasible in productionto make feasible in production

EMC’s AOR ConceptEMC’s AOR Concept NCEP’s 4DDA will (like the EDAS) useNCEP’s 4DDA will (like the EDAS) use

• Full complexity of NOAH Land-Surface Model Full complexity of NOAH Land-Surface Model • Assimilation of observed precipitation data Assimilation of observed precipitation data

to ensure lower-boundary states are optimalto ensure lower-boundary states are optimal NCEP will use WRF-NMM as assimilating model NCEP will use WRF-NMM as assimilating model

to efficiently include to efficiently include • Nonhydrostatic effects in the dynamicsNonhydrostatic effects in the dynamics• Terrain following coordinate (hybrid sigma-Terrain following coordinate (hybrid sigma-

pressure replaces step-mountain eta)pressure replaces step-mountain eta)• Nudging (not in any of NCEP current models)Nudging (not in any of NCEP current models)

EMC’s AOR ConceptEMC’s AOR Concept

AOR’s emphasis is on sensible weather elementsAOR’s emphasis is on sensible weather elements Focus AOR on surface & sensible weather where Focus AOR on surface & sensible weather where

we have majority of mesoscale observationswe have majority of mesoscale observations To save cost, reduce vertical resolution away To save cost, reduce vertical resolution away

from surface (run with 20-30 levels instead of from surface (run with 20-30 levels instead of current 60 levels)current 60 levels)

To compensate for less vertical, nudge prediction To compensate for less vertical, nudge prediction away from sfc to an existing solution provided by away from sfc to an existing solution provided by operational North American Mesoscale run operational North American Mesoscale run (currently 12 km Eta but 10 km WRF-NMM by late (currently 12 km Eta but 10 km WRF-NMM by late FY2005)FY2005)

Analysis of RecordAnalysis of Record

ISST has identified this as our number one ISST has identified this as our number one prioritypriority

Immediate goal: Determine operational Immediate goal: Determine operational requirements, science and R&D issues that requirements, science and R&D issues that need to be addressed, potential roadblocks, need to be addressed, potential roadblocks, and strategy for implementation. and strategy for implementation. Need to Need to get this on a fast track!get this on a fast track!

National Digital Forecast Database targets a National Digital Forecast Database targets a spectrum of weather information usersspectrum of weather information users

More weather data More weather data

Higher resolution Higher resolution forecastsforecasts

Visual displays of Visual displays of probabilityprobability

User-defined User-defined products create products create business business opportunitiesopportunities

Different Different Products for Products for

Different Different CustomersCustomers

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

The public, emergency The public, emergency managers and city managers and city planners use planners use WWW. graphic WWW. graphic products for detailed products for detailed forecastsforecasts

Commercial weather Commercial weather companies & emergency companies & emergency managers use grids to managers use grids to generate tailored generate tailored productsproducts

Radio stations & public Radio stations & public read text forecastsread text forecasts

User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products

New Forecasting ProcessNew Forecasting Process

• InteractiveInteractive• CollaborativeCollaborative• Information Information

OrientedOriented

NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products

TextText

GraphicGraphic

DigitalDigital

VoiceVoice

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Field Field OfficesOffices

National National CentersCentersCollaborateCollaborate

Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

GridsGrids

Traditional Forecasting ProcessTraditional Forecasting Process

• Schedule DrivenSchedule Driven• Product OrientedProduct Oriented• Labor IntensiveLabor Intensive

National CentersNational CentersGenerate Graphical ProductsGenerate Graphical Products

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

Field OfficesField OfficesType Text ProductsType Text Products

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10

MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10

U.S. Drought U.S. Drought MonitorMonitor

Excessive Heat Excessive Heat ProductsProducts

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

Taking Advantage of TechnologyTaking Advantage of Technology

Our Goal: To develop a new forecasting process and delivery system that will provide you with new and enhanced forecasts and multiple ways to receive NWS weather information

Surface Transportation Weather - Observations

Better data sampling of the boundary Layer as a basis to resolve complex forecasting issues near the surface.

New sampling technologies include (but are not limited to):

•Differential GPS/Integrated Precipitable Water

•RADNET “gap-filling, low-power” Phased Array Radars

•Driver level visibility and road obscurations from new CCTV algorithms

•Better freezing/frozen liquid equivalent observations from new sensor technologies (e.g., new Hot-Plate Precipitation Sensors)

•In-Vehicle sensors (air & road temperature, surface friction, precipitation rate, etc)