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Airplane Programs

BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Andrew Wade, , Visual Analytic Approaches to Bird

Strike Analysis.ppt | 1

A Cognitive and Visual Analytic Assessment of Pilot Response to a Bird Strike

International Bird Strike Committee Annual Meeting Cairns Australia 21-24 Sept 2009

Roger Nicholson Ph.DAssociate Technical FellowAviation System Safety The Boeing Company ([email protected])

Andrew Wade M.Sc Cand.Boeing Intern/Master’s Student Simon Fraser University ([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]


Airplane Programs


A Cognitive and Visual Analytic Assessment of Pilot Response to a Bird Strike

International Bird Strike Committee Annual MeetingCairns Australia 21-24 Sept 2009Roger Nicholson PhDAssociate Technical Fellow, Aviation System SafetyThe Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington, USAAndrew WadeBoeing Intern, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.

OutlineAviation safety risk assessment Motivation for this studyCognitive Approach to Human PerformanceVisual Analytics Approaches to Aviation Safety Data AnalysisQuestions



Presenter

Presentation Notes

Here’s an overview of how the rest of the presentation will go today.


1959

Commercial Airplanes

StatisticalSummary of

Commercial JetAirplane Accidents

Worldwide Operations1959 - 2009

2009www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf

Presenter

Presentation Notes

1959 and 2009 should be periwinkle to match previous years, also they are in ARIAL 19. Where “Commercial Airplanes” is ARIAL NARROW 14.

Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY

Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightWorldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2000 Through 2009

222009 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2010

Fatal accidents

Onboard fatalities

Taxi, load/unloadparked,

tow

Takeoff Initialclimb

Climb

Fatalities

Cruise Descent Initialapproach

Finalapproach

Landing

123

Fatal accidents

703

8

548

1000

9

Initialapproach

11%

14%

12%

Descent

4%

4%

11%

Finalapproach

13%

13%

3%

Percentage of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities

Takeoff

12%

14%

1%

Initialclimb

9%

13%

1%

Landing

21%

11%

1%

Taxi, load/unload parked,

tow

13%

0%

Climb(flaps up)

4%

11%

14%

Cruise

10%

20%

57%

21% 34%

27% 24%

Fatal accidents

Onboard fatalities

Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

663

199

550

Onboard fatalities

703632

4

Exposure (Percentage of flight time estimated for a 1.5 hour flight)

Initial approach

fixFinal

approach fix

114

10 1219

Percentages may not sum to 100% due to numerical rounding.


Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence Categories Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2000 Through 2009

2009 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2010

Number of fatal accidents (89 total)

Fatalities

External fatalities [Total 244]Onboard fatalities [Total 5001]

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

1759 (89)

504 (0)

156 (69)314 (0)

96 (1)154 (38)

122 (3)193 (9)

1 (8) 2 (2)

961 (0)

606 (21)

ARC Abnormal Runway ContactCFIT Controlled Flight Into or Toward TerrainF-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)FUEL Fuel RelatedLOC-I Loss of Control – In flight MAC Midair/Near Midair CollisionOTHR OtherRAMP Ground HandlingRE Runway Excursion (Takeoff or Landing)RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or PersonSCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)UNK Unknown or UndeterminedUSOS Undershoot/OvershootWSTRW Windshear or Thunderstorm

No accidents were noted in the following principal categories:ADRM AerodromeAMAN Abrupt ManeuverATM Air Traffic Management/Communications, Navigation, SurveillanceBIRD BirdCABIN Cabin Safety EventsEVAC EvacuationF-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)GCOL Ground CollisionICE IcingLALT Low Altitude OperationsLOC-G Loss of Control – GroundRI-A Runway Incursion – AnimalSEC Security RelatedTURB Turbulence Encounter

For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/

110 (4)23 (0)

External fatalitiesOnboard fatalities

16 16 4 3 5 4 120 912 332

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

LOC-I CFIT RE (Landing)+ ARC

+ USOS

UNK SCF-NP MAC RI-VAP RE (Takeoff) OTHR F-NI WSTRW FUEL RAMP SCF-PP


Aviation Safety Risk AssessmentMost Accidents Occur in the Departure and Arrival

Phases of FlightControlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), and Loss of Control

Inflight (LOC-I) have high fatality riskBird strike hazard has relatively low fatality risk

Bird strikes occur at a relatively high rateMost bird strikes have little effect on flightMost bird strikes occur at low altitudeMost flight crews handle bird strikes appropriatelyA few bird strike events were not well handled by flight crews, are there common themes that need attention?

BOEING PROPRIETARYAndrew Wade, , Visual Analytic Approaches to Bird


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Anywhere where there is a lot of data and not enough time to analyze it all.


US Airways Flight 1549, A320, January 15, 2009

8

Copyr ight © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARYAndrew Wade, , Visual Analytic Approaches to Bird


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Unless you just arrived at this conference now AND have been living under a rock for the past year and a half, you are familiar with “the Miracle on the Hudson” Capt. Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger III, and his crew successfully ditched a US Airways A320 into a river after bird strikes disabled both engines, The bird strikes occurred at 2,750 ft, about 1.5 minutes after takeoff. The time from the birdstrikes to touchdown in the water was about 3.5 minutes. Superb airmanship, good design and just plain good luck resulted in an excellent outcome to a catastrophic event. Sully visited Boeing on March 8-9, 2010. He spoke with Boeing Training & Flight Services employees in Renton, Wash., met with Boeing Test & Evaluation teammates, visited employees working on the flight line at Boeing Field and toured the Everett, Wash., factory. VIDEOS@BOEING


Ryanair 737, Rome Ciampino, November 10, 2008


Ethiopian Airlines 737, Bhardar Ethiopia, September 15, 1998


Monitor/Detect

Integrate/Interpret

Determine Goal/Identify Task

Plan Actions/Select Response

ExecuteFeedback

A Cognitive Approach: Rasmussen’s description of human performance


Intentional DeviationDetect Understand

SelectAction Prioritize Execute

Indications on PFD (standard scan)

Workload is low in cruise

Interface shows “symptoms” only

Checklist condition does not mention problem

Pilots need to understand system

The problem is unannunciated

Checklist actions are compatible

Checklist gives clear understanding

More work to fly manually: pitch & power

There is a checklist

Controls clearly marked

Cockpit-operations Reliability Worksheet (CREW)Help/Hinder Analysis of Flight Deck

Must locate performance data

Pilots must coordinate to understandNo warning if delay checklist use

Relevant HELP factor

Relevant HINDER factor

Trained priorities: aviate, navigate, communicate

No perceived negative consequences

Can be delayed without consequences

Disengage a/pand a/t is implied only


Birds seen after liftoff

Bird collision seen or felt,

cooked bird smell

Possible engineingestion, remains

on windshield

Continue climb to cruise altitude, thrust increase

needed

One hour laterwindshield splintersdecompress cabin,

engine auto shutdown

Emergencydescent &

landing

Event Example (what happened)

flight parameters areinterpreted: airspeed,

engine indications, etc

a “non-normal”message/indication/

alert occurs (e.g.,high engine vibration,

high exhaust gas temperature

DETECTION: Cues for flight crew action (what does the flight crew react to?)

the flight crew figures outwhich parameters are

bad and which are good

the flight crew DOESN’Tfigure out which

parameters are bad/good

UNDERSTANDING: Flight crew comprehension of the situation (do they get it right before taking action?)

Bird Strike Analysis using Cognitive Approach

they utilize training or procedures, or basic airmanship

EXECUTION: Flight Crew Action (do they handle it well?)

they never access and use anappropriate checklist, training,

or expected response

they manage the airplanewell, and take action

appropriate to phase of flight

they DON’T manage the airplanewell, employ ad hoc methods,

or perform inappropriate or unexpected actions

Physical senses:see, hear, feel, smell


DETECTBird strike via

flight crew physical senses,

or airplane systems

Bird Strike Analysis using Reduced Human Performance Model

UNDERSTANDExtent of damage,

capability for continued safe flight & landing

SELECT ACTIONKnowledge in

the world, prompts for

guidance, WHY versus WHAT

PRIORITIZEActions or intentional deviation

EXECUTEAppropriate

action (s)

UNMEDIATED(World)

ENGINEERED(Airplane, Systems)


Visual Analytics Tool IN-SPIRE Analysis of Flight Crew DETECTION and RESPONSE to Bird Strike

Six minute video


IN-SPIRE: Galaxy View

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

-Began with 1087 records describing bird strikes -One of the initial views is the galaxy view -1 dot = 1 document -Documents cluster together based on similarity (word frequencies and co-occurrences within documents) -Words printed above clusters (words contributing most to that cluster (main “themes”) -Gives a quick overview of what is going on in your dataset without doing any reading of individual documents -Word contribution histogram -Selected documents appear green -Outlier terms and outlier documents


IN-SPIRE: Theme View

17

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Theme View - Similar to the galaxy view but uses height to show denser clusters -Higher peaks indicate more documents in that cluster relating to the words printed above that cluster -3rd dimension of height and ability to interact with the visualization makes the denser clusters more salient


IN-SPIRE: Document Viewer

18

Presenter

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A record has several fields, IN-SPIRE looks at the text field (Remarks)


IN-SPIRE: Word Query: DETECTION

19

Presenter

Presentation Notes

-Were interested in finding bird strike incidents that were detectable in flight -As opposed to those found by maintenance crews after the flight -these are incidents that pilots had a chance to respond to in air -query tool allows for advanced queries, wildcards…etc -keeps track of past queries


IN-SPIRE: Key Word Highlighting: DETECTION

20

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-Document viewer is used to view individual reports -There is a box for words you want highlighted -Highlighting draws the user’s attention to the relevant parts of the text, minimizes reading -Ability to sort by any of the fields in the dataset -Keeps track of “read documents”


IN-SPIRE: Overlap Groups: RESPONSE

21

Presenter

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-Groups can be auto-created or can be created manually -Created groups for different types of responses (ATB, DIV, IFSD…etc) -Group tool allows you to look at overlap (numbers after each group) -Impossible to have a report that is both an ATB and a DIV -helps with data cleanup and drilling down

Airplane Programs




Bird Strike

Raw Data

Visual Analytics

Products

Presenter

Presentation Notes

What Lauren presented earlier this morning would be the perfect kind of data to analyze in Tableau. Lat lon data and numerical and categorical data.


Outcome of this activity



Bird strikes are frequently detected with occasional inappropriate flight crew responsesAnalysis still ongoing, possible outcomes include

Industry approach to developing & publishing guidance• US Bird Strike Committee• International Bird Strike Committee• Other aviation safety stakeholders

Airframe manufacturer • Develop educational material • Review flight crew training and procedures

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Airplane Programs




Thank YouQuestions?

Roger [email protected]

Andrew [email protected]

Presenter

Presentation Notes

So we have seen use of Visual Analytics to greatly assist in our understanding of several real world aviation safety issues. We are sold on the concept of “detect the expected and discover the unexpected”. Visual Analytics has many applications throughout the Boeing enterprise, especially where we are inundated with data, and we need efficient tools for analysis. Thank you. We welcome questions.




Visual Analytics Approaches



IN-SPIRE: textual data

Tableau: categorical and numerical data

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Visual Analytics used to Analyze Bird Strike Events

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IN-SPIRE Tableau

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Visualize the data to analyze it more efficiently. Visual Analytic tools used on bird strike data: Tableau – Numerical and categorical visualization IN-SPIRE – Textual visualization


The Information Age

The amount of data stored digitally was estimated at 180 exabytes (180 billion gigabytes) in 2006

By 2011 there will be at least 1800 exabytes (1.8 zetabytes)

Moore’s Law: Transistor capacity doubles every 24 months

However, the human brain’s volume doubles only every 3 x 107

months…

What does all this mean?



Presenter

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The number of bits stored already exceeds the estimated number of stars in the universe


Information Overload



Presenter

Presentation Notes

-It means we’re constantly finding ourselves in a state of information overload -Simply not enough time to sort through data -Things go missed and unnoticed -Lots of repetitive actions (iterative reading of articles)


Visual Analytics

Design interactive visual interfaces that allow our innate “visual intelligence” to find meaningful patterns in datasetsSynthesize information and derive insight from massive, dynamic and conflicting

data

“Detect the expected and discover the unexpected”

BOEING PROPRIETARY

The science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces



Presenter

Presentation Notes

-Information overload is one of the main causes of the field of visual analytics -Created after 9/11 to improve analysis in the intelligence community -Its applications have increased far beyond only intelligence analysis -Using visualizations to improve the efficiency and accuracy of analysis


More than Information Visualization

Visual Analytics……is interdisciplinary…relies on basic science…utilizes the human visual system’s ability to detect patterns and outliers



Presenter

Presentation Notes

-Visual Analytics is more than just information visualization -It’s very interdisciplinary, combining…


Why “VISUAL” Analytics?

Humans evolved a powerful visual system to detect patterns and outliers

Many aspects of the “visual scene” processed quickly without conscious effort (e.g. within 1/5 second)

ColorOrientationSpatial LocationCurvatureSizeMotion




Visual Intelligence



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Within 1/5 second


Tableau: Geographic Distribution by Most Wanted

33

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Distribution of strikes by species by location


Tableau: Kinetic Energy by Most Wanted

34

Presenter

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Kinetic energy plot of Airbus and Boeing planes, but colored by species of bird (only the FAA most wanted list) -Abundance of orange -Canada Goose is a large bird, often fly together and cause a lot of damage when struck


Tableau: Bird Strikes by Month (Seasonal Variations)

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Number of strikes by month


Tableau: Bird Strikes by Month & Time of Day

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Number of strikes by month and colored by time of day -There are the most nighttime strikes in October and even more than daytime


Tableau: Canada Goose Strikes by Time of Day

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Canada goose strikes by time of day -Can see that there are still a lot at nighttime, this is true for other birds as well


Tableau: Radome Damage

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Tableau -NWSDB data from 1990 to 2008 -Scatterplot showing the flight envelope (speed on x axis, height on y) -Where in the air bird strike occurred -Size is amount of kinetic energy involved in strike (from bird weight and speed of aircraft) -Kinetic energy indicative of the total damage to the plane, allows you to see high energy strikes quickly and explore further -Color is extent of damage to the plane -Can filter this to just radome strikes, windshield strikes…etc


Tableau: Radome Damage

39

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Tableau: Bird Strike Damage

40

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Boeing Applications of Visual Analytics Tools

Aviation Safety DataCockpit Voice Recorder DataFlight Data Recorder DataReliability DataMonte Carlo AnalysesFinancial DataMarketingMany More…



Presenter

Presentation Notes

Anywhere where there is a lot of data and not enough time to analyze it all.