a choice between energy and water

8/14/2019 A Choice Between Energy and Water

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SHORTAGE&

DISEMPOWERING SOLUTIONSWilson M. FortalezaFreedom From Debt Coalition

June 23, 2009, Davao City

A FORUM ON THE DCWD-HEDCOR ISSUEBATTLE OVER THE PANIGAN-TAMUGAN

RIVERS OF DAVAO CITY

SHORTAGE&

DISEMPOWERING SOLUTIONS


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FDC frameworks

On Power The power industry, due to its inherentnature, should be placed at the realm ofpublic domainand its products and services

remain aspublic goods.

The principle strongly pursues theprogressive role of the State that it cannotand should not consign the industry entirely

to private hands and let the marketdetermine what is good for the public.

FDC is also for a power shift from dirtyto clean and renewable power


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FDC frameworks

On Water

Upholding the peoples right

to water

Water, the same with power,are public goods that shouldremain in public domain


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Power Situation

As of Dec. 2007

Installed generating capacity is15,937 MW

Dependable capacity is 13,205

MW

Source: DOE


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Power Situation

PEAK DEMAND

Source: PDP-DOE


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Power Situation

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE


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Power Situation

GRID CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE


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Power Sales

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

7,890

GWh


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Demand forecast

Grid 2006

2007

2008

2009 2010

Luzon 6,72

8

6,98

1

7,25

2

7,552 7,878

Visayas 1,154

1,214

1,289

1,364 1,448

Mindanao 1,293

1,363

1,440

1,525 1,620

PHILIPPINES

9,175

9,558

9,981

10,441

10,946

Source: Transmission Development Plan,


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Demand forecast(Mindanao)



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How is demand

projected? Historically, governments demandprojection is poor (Top to bottom approach).Poor planning is also a factor.

DOE makes use of an aggregation of thedemand projection from the DistributionDevelopment Plans(DDPs) from distributionutilities plus projections from directly-connected non-utilities.

TransCos forecast is based oneconometric modeling with Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) as main explanatory variable.


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Supply-Demandforecast



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Source: Transmission Development Plan,2007

Demand projection is always onthe High Demand Case

Both cases show a radical declinein the demand forecast for Luzon,owing to the very low projection ofthe Meralco, which demand covers

around 70% of the aggregate demandin the Luzon grid.


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Dependable Capacity inMindanao



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Teetering intorecession

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009


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Sharp FallGDP AND GNP (in million PhP)



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All industryperformance

GDP by industry origin (in million PhP)



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The cost of wrongprojections Consumers are made to pay thefull cost of installed capacitieswhether they are consumed or not, or

even those that were not generatedat all.

We also pay for all the risks

The case of the IPP contractswhich we were made to pay throughthe PPA.


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The Mindanao Grid



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The Mindanao Grid


In TransCos CAPEX Program approved bythe ERC, the program is mainly driven byload growth .

Of the estimated P56.23-B, 82% or P46-B

are for projects necessary to meet loadgrowth within the planning horizon. (40% forLuzon, 28% for Visayas, and 32% forMindanao.

For the projects for implementation,however, Capex driven by load growth is notas high as the ongoing projects as itaccounts for only 58%.

In Mindanao, all of the projects for


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Dropped inter-connectionproject



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TransCos ongoingprojects in the Mindanao

Grid


Abaga-Kirahon 230 kV Transmission Line toprovide additional transmission corridor to the676.4 MW Agus Hydro Complex which accountsfor 70% of total dependable capacity for the

Mindanao Grid. The Agus 2-Kibawe and Abaga-Togoloan 138 kV lines serve as Agus link to thegrid.

The bombing of Agus 2-Kibawe line resulted in

huge power swing to the other corridor. TheAbaga-Togoloan line will not be able to carry70% of the 90% load as a result of the Agus 2-Kibawe outage.

The project is expected to be completed June2008 and would serve as initial step in


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Power planning/PlantSitting Choosing as site for a new powerplant is an important part of electricsystem planning. There are plants thatare site-specific such as hydro,

geothermal, wind among others.

Social-acceptability must also be

considered.


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War over water

"The wars of thenext centurywill be aboutwater."Ismail Serageldin,Vice president of the WorldBank


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Water for ALL

Power can beproduced from manysources

Although the globeis made up mainly ofwater, potable wateris not a finiteresources.

Availablefreshwater amountsto less than one-halfof 1 percent of all the

water on earth. The

Global consumptionof water is doublingevery 20 years, morethan twice the rate ofhuman population

growth.


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Making a choice

Why make us choose between a darkand waterless future when the answer isobviously clear:

Nobody desires suchkind of world!


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Is there a win-winsolution?

Kung ayaw may

dahilan,Kung gusto maraming

paraan


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A proposal for a Multi-

StakeholdersDevelopment

Planning Process Panay Case (SeparatePresentation)

Naga Case (ParticipatoryPlanning)


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Thank You!

End of presentation

a choice between energy and water

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